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This article discusses the factors that contribute to productivity, growth, and development in India and beyond. It highlights the importance of innovation behavior, productivity and efficiency of the MSME sector, firm exit decisions, low labor productivity, non-performing financial sector assets, cross-border mergers, and the creation of decent employment. The article also emphasizes the role of productivity growth in accelerating economic growth and improving people's welfare. It examines specific issues such as firms' performance and innovation, technical efficiency of banks, characteristics of innovative firms, financial accessibility for MSMEs, firm exit in manufacturing industries, the impact of cross-border mergers on innovation efforts, and productivity disparities across Indian states. [Extracted from the article]

This article explores the controversial topic of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and its impact on emerging, developing, and underdeveloped economies. The authors highlight that while some studies show positive effects of FDI on economic growth, others fail to find such a relationship. The article presents six papers that delve into various aspects of FDI, including its effects on economic diversification, technology transfer, innovation, global value chains, and cultural distance. The findings suggest that the relationship between FDI and economic growth is complex and context-dependent. The article concludes by suggesting future research avenues, including the role of government corruption, the interaction between FDI and human capital, and the differentiation of FDI types. [Extracted from the article]

Purpose: This paper aims to estimate a statistical model of the country risk determination as represented by the country price earnings ratio (PE) to identify potentially mispriced countries. It uses the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and a dummy indicator for market-related events (i.e. financial crises), both approximating the business cycle. The model is used to compare a major Asian country's (i.e. Japan) risk with Western countries' risk. Design/methodology/approach: The model used finance variables such as the systemic, non-diversifiable, risk and foreign direct investments to characterize any country risk. A random effects model with panel data estimated the effects of macroeconomic and financial variables on PE. The simultaneity problem was checked using two stage least squares and some lagged independent variables. Findings: The results explained to investors the country risk contributing factors: PE was positively correlated with variables that may increase dividends and market risk premia similar to GDP growth rates and total risk and negatively correlated with variables that increase market risk, namely, nominal risk-free interest rates and financial crises. Japan's PE seemed to exceed most of the Western countries considered here, implying lower risks, lower interest rates and higher growth in the major Asian country Japan. Originality/value: This paper focuses on the effectiveness of country risk measures in predicting periods of intense instability, similar to financial crises. This study contributes a model to measure market risk premium, using PE (or inversely, the earnings yield) as a proxy variable. Investors can use this risk measure in picking less risky stocks to include in their portfolio, calling for liberalizing Asian countries' financial markets to improve their stock market capitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The literature mostly investigates the business cycle transmission of the United Kingdom (UK) and France as a part of a wider group (e.g. European Exchange Rate Mechanism or G7), despite their historical links and regional significance. Thus, herein paper aims to analyse the inter-dependence of these economies and how a shock from one of them affects the other for the data since 1978 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, first, preliminary statistics were calculated in order to describe the historical relationship between these countries. The econometric part estimates the vector auto-regression model (VAR) to assess the inter-dependence of the economies. VAR model allows further to inspect the impulse response functions that shows the shock dynamics from one country to another. In order to verify if a shock from one of the economies is important to another, the study uses granger causality test. Findings: The study establishes a strong link between these countries. A business cycle is transmitted significantly between the economies of France and UK, with a single standard deviation shock from France resulting in a long term effect of 0.4% change in gross domestic product (GDP) of UK and 1% vice versa. Additionally changes in GDP of both of the countries significantly Granger-cause change to GDP of the corresponding economy. Originality/value: This is the first empirical study investigating the business cycle transmission between France and UK and providing a quantitative assessment of their inter-dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the impact of intra-industry trade on business cycle synchronization within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). ECOWAS region is characterized by limited intracommunity trade and a low level of foreign direct investment. Design/methodology/approach: First, this research uses the two-digit level harmonized system classification to measure intra-industry trade, which is straightforward to interpret and compute, making it suitable for countries with low trade intensity. Second, it uses the system generalized method of moments (system-GMM) to examine the dynamic relationship between variables and address endogeneity concerns. Findings: The results obtained from the system-GMM estimation reveal a positive and significant correlation between intra-industry trade intensity and business cycle synchronization, as well as an inhibiting effect of economic freedom on the relationship between intra-industry trade and business cycle synchronization. These results highlight the need to implement policies aimed at reducing tariff barriers, improving financial integration and intensifying production. Originality/value: This research analyze the link between intra-industry trade and business cycle synchronization within the ECOWAS. It also analyze the role of economic freedom on the link between intra-industry trade and business cycle synchronization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Using a political economy framework, this paper examines the financing trend, by investigating three systematic spikes occurring between 2004 and 2016. The study aims to provide a useful review of the interaction of politics, financial decisions and educational outcomes. Additionally it provides a useful guide, especially to academics, to identify political and economic conceptualizations that will predict expenditure decision-making of political actors and to be able to provide policy advice on the future effect of such decisions on availability and accessibility of public goods. Design/methodology/approach: The paper adopts a secondary data analysis approach, drawing upon secondary data sources such as from the Ministry of Education, budget statements from the Ministry of Finance, as well as relevant policy documents. Additional information for the study was also extracted from the manifestos of the two leading political parties in Ghana – the New Patriotic Party and the National Democratic Congress and their viewpoints on financing of education in Ghana. Findings: Using two epochal years when financing of education peaked (2008 and 2012), which coincided with election years, the trend lends itself to being interpreted as opportunistic spending. It appears to give credence to a conclusion that the increases in spending are more politically directed and nonneutral. Originality/value: This paper fulfills an identified need to study the trend of basic education financing in Ghana, which will help policy actors make better-informed decisions with the introduction of the novel "adaptive opportunism" framework analysis tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Rising crude oil prices are likely to have an asymmetric and nonlinear negative impact on GDP growth. The purpose of this paper is to ask the following questions: Does the effect of a crude price shock depend on the position of crude price cycle, i.e. is the effect of price shock larger/smaller in periods of already elevated crude price? And, does the effect of crude price shock depend on the position of the economy in the business cycle, i.e. does the crude price shock affect growth differentially in periods of low/high growth? Design/methodology/approach: The authors use a local linear projection (LLP) model to examine the asymmetric impact of crude price on GDP growth in an environment of high crude price. Next, a quantile regression model is used to account for differential impact on growth around high and low growth periods. Findings: Results from the LLP model show that when oil price is above $70, each additional percentage point of increase in oil price results in a 20 basis point (bps) drop in quarterly GDP growth rate on average. The impact is felt between the third and sixth quarters. When oil prices rise above $80, the impact is similar, with a sharper drop in growth (30 bps). The exercise with quantile regression shows that the impact of an increase in crude prices on growth is almost double at lowest quantiles of growth compared with the median. Originality/value: There is a growing literature that evaluates the impact of oil price in developing economies. However, nonlinearities in crude price-GDP growth dynamics have not received enough attention, especially during phases of elevated crude price or a growth downcycle. The authors believe that accounting for such effects is especially relevant in the present economic scenario of high oil prices because of geopolitical crises and a period of vulnerable growth because of supply chain issues arising out of the pandemic. Using recent data from oil-importing emerging market economies such as India, this paper fills a crucial gap in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper examines disemployment effects of minimum wages during the period 2002–2010. Design/methodology/approach: The authors employ the discontinuity design. Findings: The authors find that minimum wages had a significant negative impact on teen employment before the Great Recession. During the Great Recession, the disemployment effects of minimum wages were insignificant. The finding is consistent with the evolution of firms' market power during the business cycle. Originality/value: The authors attempt to reconcile the debate about the effects of minimum wages on US employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: A large empirical literature has found positive effects of economic freedom on economic outcomes, such as output and per capita growth. However, several variables in the index are very likely to decline in conjunction with recessions. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether, in the absence of these variable, whether the positive relationship between economic freedom and economic output remains. Design/methodology/approach: This paper makes use of a dynamic panel to compare the performance of economic freedom with and without variables endogenous to business cycles, which pertain to levels of government spending, rates of inflation, government borrowing and interest rates. Findings: Two specifications fall in their statistical significance from the 1 to the 10 per cent level when variables relating to inflation are omitted. The worst case considered finds one specification size of the effect is still 66.3 per cent of the effect size of the standard measure of economic freedom. Practical implications: These findings are consistent with this kind of endogeneity being a minor problem with the data set when imperfect identification strategies are used, but the issue should be strongly considered when business cycles are pertinent to a research question that makes use of economic freedom data. Originality/value: This paper contributes to the small literature focused on the robustness of the effect of economic freedom on output, while raising a specific concern that has not yet been explicitly addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. To this end, the author develops a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SOE-NK-DSGE) model. Accordingly, this model includes various features, such as habit consumption, staggered price, price indexation, incomplete exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT), the failures of the law of one price (LOOP) and the uncovered interest rate parity. It is then estimated by using the Bayesian technique and Vietnamese data 1999Q1–2017Q1. Based on the estimated model, this paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in this emerging economy. Indeed, this research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach: A SOE-NK-DSGE model—Bayesian estimation. Findings: This paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. Originality/value: This research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to study the asset pricing implications for stock and bond markets in a long-run risks (LRR) model with regime shifts. This general equilibrium framework can not only generate sign-switching stock-bond correlations and bond risk premium, but also quantitatively reproduce various other salient empirical features in stock and bond markets, including time-varying equity and bond return premia, regime shifts in real and nominal yield curves, the violation of the expectations hypothesis of bond returns. Design/methodology/approach: The researchers study the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in a LRR model framework with regime shifts in consumption and inflation dynamics. In particular, the means, volatilities, and the correlation structure between consumption growth and inflation are regime-dependent. Findings: The model shows that the term structure of interest rates and stock-bond correlation are intimately related to business cycles, while LRR play a more important role in accounting for high equity premium than do business cycle risks. Originality/value: This paper studies the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in a Bansal and Yaron (2004) type of LRR framework. This rational expectations general equilibrium framework can (1) jointly match the dynamics of consumption, inflation and cash flow; (2) generate time-varying and sign-switching stock and bond correlations, as well as generating sign-switching bond risk premium; and (3) coherently explain another long list of salient empirical features in stock and bond markets, including time-varying equity and bond return premia, regime shifts in real and nominal yield curves, the violation of the expectations hypothesis of bond returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the existing relations between the management of public bonds on the dynamics of debt, term structure of interest rates and economic cycle, through a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), which was estimated through Bayesian inference techniques using data from Brazil. Design/methodology/approach: The model developed was used to investigate the effects of the public debt average maturity management when the economy faces a monetary policy shock. For this, three management scenarios are evaluated, including Brazilian securities average term. Findings: Contrary to what might be inferred from DSGE models that limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing only one-period bonds, a contractionary monetary policy shock does not necessarily cause public debt to increase significantly. Debt term structure plays a crucial role in this result since the government does not need to roll the debt over at higher costs when the debt term profile is longer, reducing the debt service costs and then the impact on the overall debt. Originality/value: Despite the relevance of this theme and its implications for the dynamics of the economy, there is still a gap to be filled in the literature when using DSGE models, since most part of the work that used this methodology limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing that government issues only one-period bonds. This paper differs from the others insofar as it promotes an investigation focused on the role played by debt maturity management on the performance of the contractionary monetary policy. This approach can generate a better understanding of debt management policy and its interaction with fiscal and monetary policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The paper aims to analyse the impact of economic and governance factors on remittance inflows to India from the UK, USA and UAE. India is globally recognised as the largest recipient of remittances. Design/methodology/approach: Using a comprehensive time series data set spanning 1996 to 2022, the authors use an innovative non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model approach to examine the influence of economic growth, corruption control and employer availability in the three source countries on remittance inflows to India. Findings: The results indicate that in the UAE, changes in economic growth and corruption control directly affect remittance outflows. However, the presence of employers in the UAE has minimal impact on remittance outflows to India. Regarding the UK, fluctuations in economic growth primarily drive remittance outflows to India. The effect of corruption control and employment opportunities on remittance outflows is marginal. In the USA, economic growth does not notably impact remittance outflows, whereas corruption control and employment opportunities significantly influence the outflows to India. Originality/value: These findings have important implications for policymakers. Analysing macroeconomic factors from key remittance-sending nations offers valuable insights for Indian policymakers and their international counterparts to enhance remittance inflows. The study focuses on three countries that collectively contribute to about 50% of India's remittances, providing a unique contribution compared to the usual country-specific or regional focus in existing literature. Finally, leveraging these findings, NITI Aayog, an organisation dedicated to achieving India's sustainable development goals, can effectively monitor macroeconomic indicators related to significant remittance-sending countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework. Design/methodology/approach: This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates. Findings: The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification. Originality/value: The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to provide the estimates of returns to schooling using consistent methodology and comparable set of data for a long time horizon for a country undergoing economic transition. Second, the paper aims to verify if returns to schooling in Poland were pro-cyclical or counter-cyclical. Design/methodology/approach: The paper is based on the human capital theory in estimating the wage returns to years of schooling controlling additionally for unemployment rates at a regional level. Data come from a collection of Polish individual LFS waves for the period 1995–2017. Findings: Returns to schooling in Poland were increasing until 2006 and declining afterwards unveiling the supply side effects domination. The estimates suggested counter-cyclicality of returns in Poland. Research limitations/implications: Using LFS data made it impossible to control for ability bias therefore it is possible that the estimates are somewhat biased (the literature however suggests that the extent of the bias is likely to be small). It might still be argued that using consistent methodology for the whole period of analysis still offers valuable insight into returns evolution. Originality/value: This paper finds a reversal of returns trend after 2006 suggesting the period after accession to EU exhibited a supply side effect domination. The findings on counter-cyclicality of returns to education in Poland have not yet been documented in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to show the asymmetric effects of government spending shocks for South Africa over the period 1960Q1–2014Q2. Design/methodology/approach: A threshold vector autoregressive model that allows parameters to switch according to whether a threshold variable crosses an estimated threshold is employed to address the objective of this paper. The threshold value is determined endogenously using Hansen (1996) test. Generalized impulse responses introduced by Koop et al. (1996) are used to study the effects of government spending shocks on growth depending on their size, sign and timing with respect to the economic cycle. The author also uses a Cholesky decomposition identification scheme in order to identify discretionary government spending shocks in the non-linear model. Findings: The empirical findings support the state-dependent effects of fiscal policy. In particular, the effects of 1 or 2 standard deviations expansionary or contractionary government spending shock on output are very small both on impact and in the long run; and a bit larger in downturns but has only a very limited effect or no effect in times of expansion. This result gives support to the evidence in the recent literature that fiscal policy in developing countries is overwhelmingly procyclical. Originality/value: It adds to the scarce empirical fiscal literature of the South African economy in particular and developing economies in general by allowing non-linearities to estimate the effect of government spending shocks over economic cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pointing at the key role digital service innovation plays for the competitiveness of manufacturing firms, they suggest adding digital service innovation as a new type of technological innovation in manufacturing and integrating non-technological service innovations into existing types of marketing (product-service bundling) and organisational (contractual) innovations. Much of the managerial and scholarly attention builds on the premise that servitization, if successfully implemented, can allow firms to achieve (sustainable) growth and higher profitability as compared to their traditional, product-centric business models. Servitization has become one of the most active domains in service research, attracting interests from multiple disciplines, including marketing, operations, service management, engineering management, and strategy. Currently, as exemplified by the papers in this special issue, the servitization studies focus on digitally-enabled and data-driven offerings and business models, service development and innovation, inter-firm and intra-firm relationship dynamics, and performance implications. [Extracted from the article]

Purpose: Population ageing will bring economic challenges in the future. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether increased educational level could mitigate the consequences of population ageing on economic sustainability, measured as the gap between labour income and consumption. Design/methodology/approach: Using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology, the authors decompose labour income and consumption by age and educational level (low, medium and high) and compare obtained age profiles with those calculated conventionally. In addition, using the population projections by age and educational level, the authors project both profiles to 2060 for selected EU countries and assess future economic sustainability. Findings: The results show that the highly educated have a significantly higher surplus for a longer period then those with lower and medium education. Therefore, the improved educational level of individuals will have a substantially positive impact on labour income in the future—on average by about 32% by 2060 for all EU countries included. However, as the better educated also consume more, higher production does not fully translate into improved economic sustainability, but the resulting net effect is still positive at about 19%. Originality/value: The authors present for the first time an NTA by education for 15 EU countries and show the importance of including education in the analysis of the economic life cycle. The authors also show that increased educational level will mitigate the consequences of population ageing on economic sustainability in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Equity research in experimental psychology reveals investors' overreactions to bad news events. This study of asymmetric price structures in equity markets investigates whether such behavior predicts stock returns in an emerging market of India. Design/methodology/approach: The research decomposes Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex returns into Extremely Positive Returns (EPR) and Extremely Negative Returns (ENR) based on extreme values at first and then tests their lead–lag relations. Findings: The empirical finding is consistent with the existing evidence of asymmetric news effects on stock returns in India. In precise, ENR robustly predicts one-month-ahead EPR for the sample period from January 1991 to March 2020. This predictive power persists even in the presence of popular valuation ratios and business cycle variables. Practical implications: The paper explains the rationale of extreme value modeling in price forecasting. Investors can find additional utility gains from market cycle information while predicting extreme returns in Indian stock market. Originality/value: The paper is unique to understand business cycle effects in extreme return reversals in emerging markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: In examining an economic fluctuation, researchers often refer to the theories of impaired access to capital which mostly explain, from the perspective of bank lending supplies, a shock in firm's access to investment would decrease its capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period. However, some studies show that this is not always the case. A demand shock theory can explain the decrease in firm's capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period, but there should be no causal link between the two. This is because firms naturally do not invest during crisis period because of a decrease in investment wealth during crisis period. This paper aims to examine these theories with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach: The change in firms' capital expenditure and net debt issuance is analyzed using a non-parametric difference-in-difference and matching estimator across four firm-dimensions to see whether the implications of the supply shock theory apply to the current crisis or if that firms naturally do not invest during the crisis. In addition, this paper provides the result of panel regression to confirm the causal link between firms' investment funds and capital expenditure, with an addition of consumer confidence index to accommodate the implications of the demand shock theory. Findings: The results of this paper show that the implications of the supply shock theory cannot explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. Rather, the results suggest that firms naturally do not want to invest during the crisis and that the demand shock can better explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. This is confirmed by the result of panel regression which shows that only consumer confidence index has a significant positive relationship with firms' capital expenditure. Originality/value: This is the first study to examine the theory of impaired access to capital with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of working capital management on firm valuation, profitability and risk.Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a panel data set of 497 firms covering the period 2007 to 2016. The authors test the effects of working capital management on firm valuation, profitability and risk using the panel data methodology that includes firm and year fixed effects regressions.Findings The authors find a significantly negative relationship between net working capital (NWC) and firm valuation, profitability and risk. The results suggest that, in managing working capital, firm managers must make a trade-off between their objectives for profitability and risk control. Working-capital management is of particular importance in firms with less access to capital; it is also important when firms are expanding their investments during periods of economic recovery.Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature in several ways. First, to my knowledge, it provides the most comprehensive investigation, to date, on the relationship between working capital management and firm valuation, profitability and risk in an emerging market. Second, this study documents the existence of an optimal level of NWC in an emerging market. Third, firm performance, as measured in both market and accounting value, can be improved with efficient working capital management. Finally, the study includes the impact of the business cycle in an analysis of the effects of working capital management on firm performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to introduce and tests models for point-in-time probability of default (PD) term structures as required by international accounting standards. Corresponding accounting standards prescribe that expected credit losses (ECLs) be recognized for the impairment of financial instruments, for which the probability of default strongly embodies the included default risk. This paper fills the research gap resulting from a lack of models that expand upon existing risk management techniques, link PD term structures of different risk classes and are compliant with accounting standards, e.g. offering the flexibility for business cycle-related variations. Design/methodology/approach: The author modifies the non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain model (NHCTMCM) by Bluhm and Overbeck (2007a, 2007b) and introduces the generalized through-the-cycle model (GTTCM), which generalizes the homogeneous Markov chain approach to a point-in-time model. As part of the overall ECL estimation, an empirical study using Standard and Poor's (S&P) transition data compares the performance of these models using the mean squared error. Findings: The models can reflect observed PD term structures associated with different time periods. The modified NHCTMCM performs best at the expense of higher complexity and only its cumulative PD term structures can be transferred to valid ECL-relevant unconditional PD term structures. For direct calibration to these unconditional PD term structures, the GTTCM is only slightly worse. Moreover, it requires only half of the number of parameters that its competitor does. Both models are useful additions to the implementation of accounting regulations. Research limitations/implications: The tests are only carried out for 15-year samples within a 35-year span of available S&P transition data. Furthermore, a point-in-time forecast of the PD term structure requires a link to the business cycle, which seems difficult to find, but is in principle necessary corresponding to the accounting requirements. Practical implications: Research findings are useful for practitioners, who apply and develop the ECL models of financial accounting. Originality/value: The innovative models expand upon the existing methodologies for assessing financial risks, motivated by the practical requirements of new financial accounting standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to check if there is a procyclical lending behaviour in dual banking systems of the Golf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The study also tries to control for the role of Islamic banks in amplifying or mitigating the procyclicality of dual banking systems. Design/methodology/approach: Estimation of a dynamic panel model using annual observations on a sample of 81 banks based in the GCC countries between 2005 and 2018. The study uses two business cycle indicators as dependent variables, namely, output gap and oil price gap. Findings: The system generalilzed method of moments (GMM) estimator and robustness checks confirm the procyclical lending pattern of dual banking systems in the GCC. Estimation outputs also indicate that this procyclicality is more pronounced during economic slowdowns. However, it is found that Islamic banks' lending is less procyclical, giving support for the stability view of Islamic banking systems. The authors think that the implementation and conduct of macroprudential policies are very challenging for banking authorities when Islamic banks and conventional banks operate under the same regulatory framework. Research limitations/implications: The research paper may suffer from some limitations. Indeed, exploring panel data instead of country-case data may lead to a problem of heterogeneity that may underpin the credibility of the econometrical estimations. To deal with this problem by introducing a set of bank-specific and time-specific dummies. Furthermore, small N samples (N = number of individuals) may affect the reliability of the tests for the validity of instruments and autocorrelation used under the GMM estimator, leading to inefficient results. Consequently, the number of selected banks is extended as much as possible (81 banks), becoming important comparing to the time dimension of the panel. Practical implications: Policymakers and regulators are incited to embed the perspectives of Islamic finance regarding lending cyclicality in dual banking systems, which promote the efficiency of resource allocation to the financing of assets and by consequence enabling financial stability. The stability view of the Islamic banking system could prompt policymakers and regulators to encourage the implementation and development of Islamic banks. Originality/value: The present paper tries to overcome the lack of empirical studies on the procyclicality of dual banking. The study contributes to this novel literature in two ways. First, it focuses exclusively on GCC banking systems. In fact, compared to other emerging markets, business cycles characterizing GCC are specific because of the role played by the oil and gas revenues in the economic growth and financial system is crucial. Second, this paper brings into evidence the procyclicality of GCC banking systems also when the oil price is taken as a business cycle indicator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the changes in wealth and consumption inequality in Spain and estimate the consumption effects of housing and financial wealth. Design/methodology/approach - The estimations are made using micro-data from the Spanish Survey of Household Finances (2002-2014) applying cross-section, panel and interquartile techniques. Findings - The findings of this paper suggest that there was an increase in wealth inequality during the period under analysis and a reduction in consumption inequality. Also, the authors find a significant positive effect of wealth on consumer expenditure. Disaggregating by asset type, the value of the main residence is the category with the highest estimated effect on consumption, whereas the remaining types of assets, although still positive and generally significant, have more modest effects on consumption. However, the estimated coefficients and their significance can change substantially depending on the phase of the economic cycle and the position of the household in the income distribution. Originality/value - These results provide new empirical evidence on the effects of household wealth changes on their consumption behavior, the differences depending on the household's position in the distribution and the fluctuations of these estimated coefficients throughout a period of profound economic upheavals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to provide new empirical evidence on the non-performing loan (NPL) determinants of the EU conventional banks, in the context of macroeconomic factors, dimensions of country governance and bank-specific characteristics. Design/methodology/approach: The panel data sets of 1,053 conventional banks were obtained over the period of 2007-2016. The Hodrick–Prescott filter was adopted to extract business cycle and credit cycle from real gross domestic product and credit to the private non-financial sector, correspondingly. System-generalised methods of moment was then used to identify the significant determinants of NPL. Findings: The empirical results reveal that NPL is primarily driven positively by lagged-one NPL and risk profile. In consonance with the skimping hypothesis, NPL has a significant positive relationship with the cost efficiency. The empirical finding of the business cycle coincides with the Austrian business cycle theory. Particularly, NPL is relatively low during rapid economic growth of credit-sourced business boom. Whereas, business bust happens when credit creation runs its course and is associated with high NPL. This paper encapsulates that NPL is driven by not only macroeconomic factors and bank-specific characteristics but also the dimensions of country governance. Practical implications: Policymakers should introduce policies that are geared towards proper dimensions of country governance. Originality/value: The novelty of this research does not rely on the multidimensions of NPL determinants but on the disentanglement of the conventional banks with dual identity (i.e. Islamic banks, cooperative banks and ethical banks). It considers business cycle, credit cycle and previous NPL as the potential determinants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Furthermore, expatriation studies should also pay attention to how career experiences both abroad and during repatriation impact re-expatriation intentions and future global mobility, leading to long-term global careers ([46]). By doing so, the authors combine two previously separate theories, extend the application of career crafting to an international career context and emphasize the role of temporality and the whole-life view of career in SIEs' career-crafting approach. SCF views careers through three perspectives: the space within which the career takes place, the career actor and the time during which the career plays out. [Extracted from the article]

Purpose: The labor market responds in a differentiated manner during recessions and expansions, and it is of vital importance to know the magnitude asymmetries. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of the disinflationary monetary policy (2005Q1–2022Q4) through the sacrifice rate measured in terms of unemployment and rate of critical labor conditions (RCLC) with nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (NLARDL; Shin et al., 2014), which allows to efficiently estimate asymmetric effects in short and long terms in the presence of variables of different integration orders. Design/methodology/approach: The authors estimate an asymmetric accelerationist Phillips curve, augmented with labor precariousness for Mexico (2005Q1–2022Q4) following the NLARDL approach (Shin et al., 2014). Findings: The authors prove that the increase in the unemployment gap has greater disinflationary effects than the RCLC in both the short and the long term; the expansionary phases of the business cycle, which reduce UGap, do not have inflationary effects either in the short or in the long run, but improvements in the labor market do, when RCLC is reduced; raising RCLC appears to have been the companies' main survival strategy since 2015; and these asymmetries can generate a low unemployment trap with high and growing precariousness, with huge dynamic costs for well-being, economic growth, inequality and poverty. Social implications: As labor precariousness grows, the implications are several both in the short and long run. In the short run, the most notorious example of the effects on workers has to do with unstable and insecure situations, that disrupt all their life planning options, and health issues. Bohle et al. (2004) found in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries that casual employees had less desirable and predictable working hours, greater work–life conflict and more associated health complaints than people with permanent jobs. Originality/value: The approach includes the labor precariousness variable, which describes a new phenomenon in the labor market. Nowadays, workers are facing a new threat since firms are employing a new labor cost reduction strategy in which they do not lay off workers but rather paying them less, working them more hours, or reducing benefits. The asymmetries between the effects of precarity and unemployment can generate a poverty trap in the long run. This problem is, once again, of great relevance in the context of global high inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to explore and explain following a generational change, the latter generation in Chinese family firm is seen to apply different innovation strategies to thrive in a competitive environment. The Chandlerian perspective on management, marketing and manufacturing techniques (3Ms), derived from American business historian, Alfred Chandler has shown conclusively that one of a small yet established enterprises in Malaysia, London Biscuits Berhad (LBB) was able to capture a larger market by focusing on strategy and structure. This case study analytically and empirically describes the insights surrounding enterprise development among family small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach: By using the longitudinal way to compare the development of family business through time, the historical profiles that were obtained from Malaysia's companies commission house (Suruhanjaya Syarikat Malaysia) shows how organizational characteristic is often formulated by capitalizing tacit knowledge as a controlled input in the production process while promoting organization capabilities, as generations change. Secondly, findings from the interviews will show how the latter generation of this family firm innovates and adds value in product manufacturing by upgrading its quality, using resources and revitalizing the stages of business cycle. Findings: Findings show that enterprise development is influenced by objective setting during generational change. As time goes by, the next generations have a tendency of minimizing risk and maintaining harmony in the family enterprise. The next generation starts to recruit and retain professional staff while contributing innovative ideas toward the enterprise development, in comparison to the founding generation. The findings also show that diversification activities (manufacturing), improvement in domestic and international networking (marketing) and professional management adoption (management) can clearly be seen in the development of LBB. Practical implications: This case study traces how organizational and administrative characteristics of a firm are crucial if the enterprise is to capitalize on tacit knowledge and commercialize it through product development. It also clearly indicates that family enterprises may last several generations if the Chandlerian perspective on 3Ms is successfully transferred and practiced among family members. Originality/value: The selected case study focuses on the Chandlerian concept, which is the contribution of organization capabilities that foster strategic competition. This is done by investigating a successful enterprise run by a prominent Chinese family in Malaysia, which has gone through generational change. This paper proves that strategizing a family enterprise through the Chandlerian concept of 3Ms can transform a small business into a large and successful multinational enterprise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The discourse on credit cycles has been reinvigorated following the global crisis. The purpose of this paper is to contrast the positions of mainstream, Marxist, Austrian and post-Keynesian (PK) schools of thought on these matters. It is posited that most notions underplay the significance of real economy factors in shaping the fluctuations of credit levels and relations. It is argued these ideas are best illustrated by Marx (as interpreted by the Temporal Single System Interpretation) and tendency for the profit rate to fall with accumulation. Empirical evidence on the UK profit rate is provided as supporting evidence. Design/methodology/approach – The paper explores the theoretical work on credit and business cycles from the relevant schools of thought and contrasts them. The aim is to consider which approach best describes the reality. Empirical work on the profit rate provides supporting evidence. Findings – It is argued that the mainstream view of monetary neutrality is an insufficient explanation of the financial reality associated with credit and business cycles. Instead, it is posited that the PK approach, which emphasizes productive and financial factors, is more preferable. This contrasts with the usual singular financialization commentary that is used to describe the financial crisis and real economy stagnation that followed. It is argued that Marx’s notion of falling profit and its ramifications best explain the reality of both the credit and business cycle. This is supported by the evidence. Research limitations/implications – It is problematic to calculate a Marxian rate of profit given the lack of suitable reported statistics. The research illustrates the significance of productive factors, especially the tendency for the profit rate to fall, in driving business cycles. There are, therefore, implications for government fiscal/monetary/industrial policies to reflect these factors when seeking to influence the business cycle. Practical implications – Policies that are designed to target levels of profitability are likely to be beneficial for capitalist sustainability. Social implications – The focus on profitability in the paper informs individuals working in business organizations of some of the imperatives facing corporations in a modern competitive environment. Originality/value – Whether financial factors drive the business cycle, or are themselves driven by it, is an important question given that policy prescriptions will differ depending on the answer. The recent financialization commentary, for instance, suggests that better regulation or reform of the financial sector will preclude unstable business cycles. The paper argues, in contrast, that the cause of the credit instability is rooted in production (following Marx) and that, therefore, a more production-focused policy response is required whilst recognizing the instabilities of the credit system. This latter point has a measure of originality in the current discourse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to better understand if speculative activity is a factor or even the main factor in the run-up of oil prices in the spot market, particularly in the recent price bubble that occurred in the period from mid-2003 to 2008. Design/methodology/approach: The methodology used is based on an existing vector autoregressive model proposed by Kilian and Murphy (2014), which is a structural model of the global market for crude oil that accounts for flow demand and flow supply shocks and speculative demand oil shocks. Findings: From the output of the authors' structural model, the authors ruled out speculation as a factor of rising oil prices. The authors have found instead that the rapid oil demand caused by an unexpected increase in the global business cycle is the most accurate culprit. Despite the change of perspective in the speculative component, the authors' conclusions concur with the findings of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and others. Originality/value: As far as the authors are aware, this is the first time that a study has used as a spread oil variable, a speculative component of the real price, replacing the oil inventories considered by Kilian and Murphy (2014). Another contribution is that the model used allows estimating traditional oil demand elasticity in production and oil supply elasticity in spread movements, casting doubt on existing models with perfect price-inelastic output for crude oil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]