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To realize the great goal of attaining peak carbon in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060, agricultural carbon mitigation must be an essential activity in China. Policy-oriented agricultural insurance is accepted as an effective income guarantee and risk transfer tool, which can not only disperse the risk of agricultural operation but also guide green agricultural production. In this study, based on panel data from 2012 to 2018 in China, a multistage dynamic DID model is constructed to systematically explore the effect of policy-oriented agricultural insurance on green agricultural development, primarily to clarify the specific mechanism of the effect. The results show that agricultural carbon emission is increasing year by year and the implementation of policy-oriented agricultural insurance has a significant positive impact on reducing agricultural carbon emissions. We further find that the promotion effect of agricultural insurance on carbon emission reduction increases with the expansion of agricultural technicians and the decrease of agricultural chemical utilization. In terms of spatial heterogeneity, the impact of the policy-oriented agricultural insurance on reducing agricultural carbon emissions is stronger in central and western regions than in eastern regions. At the same time, this paper provides operational suggestions for low-carbon agricultural development and the formulation of relevant macroeconomic agricultural policies. Our findings support the positive effect of policy-oriented agricultural insurance and provide significant policy implications for agricultural carbon emission reduction and control actions in China and other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy not only promotes the coordinated development of China's regional economy but also generates a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions. The research and policy recommendations on agricultural carbon emissions are of great significance for China toward engendering sustainable agricultural development and appreciably contributing to the alleviation of global climate change. In this paper, agricultural carbon emissions in the Belt and Road region of China from 2003-2018 are calculated, and its spatial-temporal characteristics are analyzed. Then, we modified the logarithmic mean Divisia index model from the original four factors to six to analyze the drivers of agricultural carbon emissions. The research results obtained are as follows: (1) Total carbon emission reached a peak of 26.6326 million tons in 2016, representing a 54.53% increase from the 17.2342 million tons in 2003. Moreover, it indicated a downward trend in 2017 and dropped by approximately 4% to 25.5685 million tons in 2018. (2) Spatially, agricultural carbon emission varies greatly, with the highest value recorded in Heilongjiang and the lowest in Tibet, thereby exhibiting the characteristics of "northwest>northeast>southwest>southeast." (3) Overall, the economic factor was the most important driving factor, whereas the subsidy factor was the strongest inhibiting factor for the growth of agricultural carbon emissions. Notably, the foreign trade factor had both promoting and inhibiting effects on it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]