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The Tibetan Plateau (TP) vegetation plays an important role in the local ecosystem, which responds significantly to climate change and can affect local and large-scale weather and climate anomalies. However, little attention has been paid to its year-to-year variation. In this paper, using two NDVI datasets (GIMMS and MODIS) originated from satellite remote sensing, the variability characteristics of NDVI over the TP on the interannual time scale and associated local climatic factors were investigated. The results show that two primary patterns of NDVI governed TP during the main growing season (June–September, JJAS) for the period 1982–2020. The first one is a uniform pattern, with a consistent spatial variation over the entire TP, and the second is a dipole pattern, with an out-of-phase spatial variation of NDVI between the northern and southern TP. Interannual variations of the different climatic factors regulate the NDVI variability over the different regions of the TP. The interannual variability of the uniform NDVI pattern is mainly affected by the two local climatic factors, the preceding May–August precipitation and simultaneous JJAS sunshine duration. Specifically, NDVIs over the southern and eastern TP have a more significant response to the preceding precipitation and simultaneous sunshine duration, respectively. The variability of the dipole NDVI pattern is primarily modulated by the preceding May–August precipitation and simultaneous surface air temperature, ground surface temperature, and sunshine duration. However, NDVIs over the northern and southern TP have different degrees of response to the four climatic factors, with the most significant response being to preceding precipitation. The combined effect of these factors contributes to the formation of the interannual variability in the uniform and dipole patterns. This paper may shed light on deeply understanding the reasons for the inconsistency in variations of vegetation over the different regions of the TP under climate change. In addition to the effect of local climatic factors that this study focuses on, the influence of external climatic factors on the variability of the TP NDVI deserves further research in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares the ideas contained in the main papers published on climate change since World War II to arrive at a suggested consensus of our present knowledge regarding climatic changes and their causes. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is only suggested as a cause in one theory, which, despite its wide acceptance by Politicians, the media, and the Public, ignores the findings in other studies, including the ideas found in the Milankovitch Cycles. It also does not explain the well-known NASA map of the changes between the global 1951–1978 and the 2010–2019 mean annual temperatures. The other theories by Oceanographers, Earth scientists, and Geographers fit together to indicate that the variations in climate are the result of differential solar heating of the Earth, resulting in a series of processes redistributing the heat to produce a more uniform range of climates around the surface of the Earth. Key factors are the shape of the Earth and the Milankovitch Cycles, the distribution of land and water bodies, the differences between heating land and water, ocean currents and gateways, air masses, and hurricanes. Low atmospheric carbon dioxide levels during cold events could result in too little of this gas to support photosynthesis in plants, resulting in the extermination of most life on Earth as we know it. The 23 ka Milankovitch cycle has begun to reduce the winter insolation received at the surface of the atmosphere in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere starting in 2020. This results in extreme weather as the winter insolation reaching the surface of the atmosphere in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere decreases while the summer air temperatures increase. It heralds the start of the next glaciation. A brief outline is given of some of the climatic changes and consequences that may be expected in western Canada during the next 11.5 ka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change has affected vegetation cover in alpine areas. In this paper, we analyzed the correlation between Leaf Area Index (LAI) and climate factors of the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, and identified their contributions using the quantitative analysis method. The results show that the vegetation cover in the study area generally exhibited an increasing trend. Grassland in the middle- and high-altitude areas was the main contributing area. Temperature is the dominant climatic factor affecting the change, the effect of which increases with the rise in elevation. The influences of precipitation and radiation had obvious seasonality and regionality. The vegetation illustrated a lag response to climate drivers. With the change in the elevation band, the response time to precipitation was significantly less than that to air temperature in the low-elevation area, while the opposite trend was observed in the high-elevation area. In the future, the LAI of the watershed will show different characteristics at different time points, with the increases in the LAI in autumn and winter becoming the main factors for the future increase in the LAI. This provides a crucial basis upon which to explore hydrological and ecological processes as important components of the Third Pole region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the water level of the Dongting Lake (DTL) has been continuously low, and the wetland area and landscape pattern have changed significantly. Considering the obvious spatial heterogeneity of water regime changes in different waters of the DTL, this paper takes two core areas of the South Dongting Lake Nature Reserve (SDLNR) as study areas and analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of the wetland blue–green landscape patterns by using remote sensing image data and hydrological and meteorological data. The multi-scale correlation between runoff, precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration in the SDLNR was studied via cross-wavelet transform analysis. The results show the following: (1) The change in the blue–green spatial patterns in different regions in different periods is inconsistent, and this inconsistency is related to the topography, climate, and human activities in each region; (2) there are seasonal fluctuations in precipitation, air temperature, and evapotranspiration in the SDLNR. Among them, the annual mean temperature shows a rising trend and passes the significance test with 95% confidence, while the annual mean precipitation and annual mean evapotranspiration show no significant change trend; and (3) our Pearson correlation analysis and cross-wavelet change results show that precipitation and temperature are strongly correlated with runoff, with a resonance period of 8–16 months, while the correlation between evapotranspiration and runoff is not significant. We recommend that policymakers establish an effective early warning system and make plans to store water through micro-terrain transformation in possible climate change treatments and strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate change–built environment nexus is complex and intertwined. Recognizing the rising air temperatures and solar radiations owing to climate-induced global warming, it is critical to manage the increased building energy and cooling loads in the Middle East Gulf states' hot desert climates (Bwh). One of the top climate priorities is to promote climate resilience by reducing risks and enhancing adaptation options. This study aims to systematically review the existing literature to document building energy performances in and the associated adaptation measures of the Middle East Gulf states, regarding the implications of climate change. It is accomplished by answering the following questions: 'How well do we understand the effects of climate change on building energy use in hot urban deserts?' and 'What are the most appropriate adaptation strategies to reduce energy use in hot urban deserts?'. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis protocols (PRISMA), 17 studies on the influence of present and future weather scenarios on building performance are examined, considering variations in typology, methods, and input variables. Finally, the paper identifies the preferred methods and input variables for modelling building energy performance under predicted climatic changes. Passive design considerations are considered highly effective in mitigating and adapting to climate change implications. Thermal insulation and efficient window glazing are identified as the best-performing strategies, while the use of solar Photovoltaic (PV) is considered efficient in meeting the primary energy demands. The study's findings can assist planners and designers in projecting future climatic influences on the energy usage of existing buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed the variations of two air temperature indices, diurnal temperature range (DTR) and annual temperature range (ATR), calculated based on observations at the Zagreb Grič Observatory over a period of 133 years (1887–2019). In intense climate changes strongly manifested by the increased air temperature, these two climate indices were determined to significantly impact human health and the environment. This effect is especially evident in urban areas. The Zagreb Grič Observatory is located in the center of Zagreb and has not changed its location during the observed period. It has a long homogeneous series of climatological observations, enabling a detailed study of climate variation in the city, which is strongly influenced by various urbanization processes. In 133 years, both of the analyzed indicators showed a statistically insignificant downward trend. The Rescaled Adjusted Partial Sums (RAPS) method revealed statistically significant differences in DTR's time series between three sub-periods: 1887–1953, 1954–1989, and 1990–2019. The time series of ATR during 133 years behaved statistically differently in four sub-periods: 1887–1905; 1906–1926; 1927–1964; and 1965–2019. The analysis of monthly values of DTR showed that the DTR values are the highest in the warm part of the year, from May to August, when they are twice as high as those during the cold period from November to December. With an increase in precipitation, the DTR values decrease, while they increase as the mean annual temperature increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological drought (MDr) causes considerable economic losses in many countries, including in relation to agriculture. To examine the diversity of seasonal meteorological drought in Poland, the study uses monthly precipitation sums in the period from March to November, collected from 74 ground-based meteorological stations in 1951–2020. The paper defines meteorological drought on the basis of the standardized precipitation index in three seasons (SPI-3) and differentiates three degrees of drought intensity: extreme, severe and moderate. The study also calculates the size of Poland's area affected by meteorological drought (AAMDr) and determines the relationship between AAMDr and SPI-3. MDr in Poland occurred more frequently in spring and autumn (every 4–5 years) than in summer (every 7 years). In the areas affected by extreme drought, precipitation was below the average, mainly ≤50% of the climatic norm, and air temperature values were below or above the average of the climatic norm, mainly ranging from −1.0 to 1.0 °C. A significant negative correlation between AAMDr and SPI-3 indices was found. The obtained results could be useful for managing climatic risk and developing regional and local agriculture adaptation plans aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays a crucial role in the climate change of China as well as global climate change. It is therefore of great practical significance to study vegetation and its dynamic changes for regional ecological protection. The combination of a dry climate and notable temperature disparities can lead to intricate effects on the region's vegetation. However, there are few studies exploring the complex effects of diurnal temperature variations on vegetation growth that differ from the effects of mean temperature on the TP, especially under different frozen ground types. Based on the long-time series maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the TP, we conducted a comparative study of the warming effects on plant growth under different frozen types. The results exhibit that it warms up faster at night (0.223 °C de−1; p < 0.01) than during the day (0.06 °C de−1; p < 0.01), resulting in a significant decrease in the temperature difference between day and night (−0.078 °C de−1; p < 0.01) in the past few decades. The principal finding of this paper is that Tmin is the dominant temperature indicator for vegetation growth on the TP, which dominates 63.3% of the area for NDVI and 61.4% of the area for GPP, respectively. The results further identify a stronger correlation between air temperature and vegetation growth in seasonal frozen grounds (R = 0.68, p < 0.01) and permafrost regions (R = 0.7, p < 0.01) compared to unfrozen grounds (R = 0.58, p < 0.01). Moreover, the physiological mechanism underlying the asymmetric influence of Tmin and Tmax on vegetation growth is further elucidated in this study. Given that future climate changes are expected to exacerbate these changes, it is imperative to explore additional avenues in pursuit of potential mechanisms that can offer adaptive strategies for safeguarding the ecology of the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing the impact of climate variables into the operational planning processes is essential for the robust implementation of a sustainable power system. This paper deals with the modeling of the run-of-river hydropower production based on climate variables on the European scale. A better understanding of future run-of-river generation patterns has important implications for power systems with increasing shares of solar and wind power. Run-of-river plants are less intermittent than solar or wind but also less dispatchable than dams with storage capacity. However, translating time series of climate data (precipitation and air temperature) into time series of runof-river-based hydropower generation is not an easy task as it is necessary to capture the complex relationship between the availability of water and the generation of electricity. This task is also more complex when performed for a large interconnected area. In this work, a model is built for several European countries by using machine learning techniques. In particular, we compare the accuracy of models based on the Random Forest algorithm and show that a more accurate model is obtained when a finer spatial resolution of climate data is introduced. We then discuss the practical applicability of a machine learning model for the medium term forecasts and show that some very context specific but influential events are hard to capture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the long-term changes in temperature and precipitation in the karst region of Imotski, Croatia, which is of particular interest due to its abundance of karst phenomena. This study analyses temperatures and precipitation on monthly and annual scales at two climatological stations in the region, Imotski and Ričice. Linear regression, the Theil–Sen estimator (β), and the Mann–Kendall test were used to determine the trends and statistical significance. The homogeneity of the data was checked using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), and the F-test and t-test were used to test the significance of the mean shift between the two subseries. Additionally, the coefficient of variability, standardized rainfall anomaly, and precipitation concentration index were employed to analyze the precipitation variability. The study found a statistically significant (p < 0.05) upward trend in the mean (β = 0.0437) and maximum (β = 0.0590) annual air temperature at the Imotski station and the mean (β = 0.0387) annual temperature at the Ričice station. The SNHT test showed a statistically significant (p < 0.05) shift in the mean annual temperatures after 2007 and maximum annual temperatures after 1998 at the Imotski station. Similarly, a statistically significant (p < 0.05) shift in the mean annual temperatures after 2011 and the maximum annual temperatures after 1998 was found at the Ričice station. A seasonal distribution of precipitation is observed at both the Ričice and Imotski stations, with a downward trend (β = −2.7693) at Ričice and an upward trend (β = 6.0575) at Imotski; however, neither trend is statistically significant (p > 0.05). An increase in the intensity of dry periods and the occurrence of extreme events was also noted. The climatological analysis, conducted for the first time in this area, is a crucial step toward understanding local climate patterns and making informed decisions toward sustainable development and adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the mid-1990s, there has been a marked decrease in the sea ice extent (SIE) in the Arctic Ocean. After reaching an absolute minimum in September 2012, the seasonal variations in the SIE have settled at a new level, which is almost one-quarter lower than the average climatic norm of 1979–2022. Increased melting and accelerated ice export from marginal seas ensure an increase in the open water area, which affects the lower atmosphere and the surface layer of the ocean. Scientists are cautiously predicting a transition to a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean as early as the middle of this century, which is about 50 years earlier than was predicted just a few years ago. Such predictions are based on the fact that the decrease in sea ice extent and ice thinning that occurred at the beginning of this century, initially caused by an increase in air temperature, triggered an increase in the thermal and dynamic contribution of the ocean to the further reduction in the ice cover. This paper reviews published evidence of such changes and discusses possible mechanisms behind the observed regional anomalies of the Arctic Sea ice cover parameters in the last decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of 30 years of permafrost thermal monitoring in the Tiksi area in the eastern Russian Arctic. At a stone ridge site, the mean annual temperatures in the upper 30 m of the ground have increased by 1–2.4 °C compared to the first years of observations, with trends of °C/yr. At the same time, its change was uneven. In the last 20 years, the rate of increase has increased compared with the first decade of observations. At wet tundra sites in the foothill plain, the mean annual temperatures at the top of permafrost have increased by 2.4–2.6 °C between 2005 and 2022 at rates of 0.11–0.15 °C/yr, and the active layer thicknesses have increased at rates of 0.05–0.41 cm/yr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is causing an intensification of extreme climate events with significant changes in frequency, duration, and intensity over many regions. Understanding the current and future influence of this warming in northeastern Brazil (NEB) is important due to the region's greater vulnerability to natural disasters, as historical records show. In this paper, characteristics of climate change projections (precipitation and air temperature) over NEB are analyzed using 15 models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. By using the Taylor diagram, we observed that the HadGEM3-GC31-MM model simulates the seasonal behavior of climate variables more efficiently. Projections for NEB indicate an irreversible increase in average air temperature of at least 1 °C throughout the 21st century, with a reduction of up to 30% in annual rainfall, as present in scenarios of regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0) and high emissions (SSP5-8.5). This means that a higher concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) will increase air temperature, evaporation, and evapotranspiration, reducing rainfall and increasing drought events. The results obtained in this work are essential for the elaboration of effective strategies for adapting to and mitigating climate change for the NEB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid urbanisation is affecting people in different ways, with some becoming more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Africa's cities are projected to be home to nearly 60% of the continent's population by 2050. In conjunction with climate change, these cities are experiencing critical environmental challenges, including changes in the urban thermal environment. Urban areas generally exhibit significantly higher air and surface temperatures than their surrounding rural areas, resulting in urban heat islands. However, little has been done to synthesise existing knowledge and identify the key research gaps in this area, particularly in Africa. This paper focuses on the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the urban thermal environment in Africa, and provides a comprehensive review of results, major advances and the dominant direction of research. Our review of 40 publications from peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2021 revealed that South Africa, Ethiopia and Nigeria were most frequently studied, and satellite imagery-based data and analysis were used predominantly. Results from a few studies have shown the practical implications for urban land-use planning, informal settlement management, human wellbeing and productivity, energy use, air pollution and disease spread. Integrated approaches, strengthening planning institutions, and early warning systems are proposed to address climate change. Low-income groups are emphasised in efforts to help people cope with heat stress. Solutions based on land use and land cover dynamics and blue–green infrastructure are mentioned but are in need of further research. Cities with similar patterns of urbanisation, geographies and climate conditions could benefit from multi-disciplinary research collaboration to address the combined impacts of rapid urbanisation and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper represents the first regional-scale investigation in the Piedmont Po plain about the relationship between groundwater temperature (GWT) and climate variability. The understanding of relationships between air temperature (AT) and GWT is really important, especially in the context of global climate change. The aim of this investigation is to study the relationship between GWT and AT over a 10-year time period (from 2010 to 2019) to analyse how these two parameters interrelate and to evaluate possible trends. To carry out this study, basic statistic interpolations were performed on both parameters to facilitate comparison. Both AT and GWT showed an increase over the observed decade with a more pronounced growth of the AT; this allow to state that GWT is more resilient to climate change than AT. However, some areas in the Piedmont plain showed a behaviour that partially deviated from the standard trend observe for the majority of the region. These areas were influenced by particular anthropic factors (for example the paddy fields in the Novara plain) or natural elements (as the monitoring wells in the "Canavese" area, located downstream of melting glaciers, or the wells located close to the Tanaro River). Moreover, this study wanted to stress the importance of the knowledge of the localization in wells of the instruments for the GWT measurement, to have the most accurate and comparable data. It was proved that as the depth increased, the maximum and minimum peaks of the GWT shifted in time respect to the maximum and minimum peaks of the AT, and, in addition, the GWT fluctuation in the bottom part of the aquifer was milder than the fluctuation observed in the most superficial part. Further investigations will be conducted in future in Piedmont plain areas with different behavior, in order to better understand their dynamics and the factors that may influence GWT and how they are affected by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper discusses changes in the low-flow regime of rivers in Poland, resulting from climate change that occurred between 1987 and 1989. The low-flow variability of rivers was measured with the use of the number of days with low flows (NDLF) below a threshold value, which was adopted as the 0.1 (10%) percentile (Q10) from the set of daily flows recorded in the multi-annual period 1951–2020 at 140 water gauges on 83 rivers. The analysis of the course of climate change over Poland showed that it was caused by macro-circulation conditions, controlled by changes in the intensity of thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic (NA THC). Climate change consisted of a sharp increase in sunshine duration and air temperature, and a decrease in relative humidity after 1988. Along with the lack of changes in precipitation totals, characterized by a strong yearly variability, and an increase in field evaporation, it led to noticeable changes in the water balance. As a result, in 1989–2020, there was a significant increase in NDFL detected in about 2/3 of the area of Poland. With the change in the NA THC phase and the macro-circulation conditions, there was also a change in the spatial distribution of areas drained by rivers with increased NDFL. In 1951–1988, these included the eastern parts of Poland, while after the climate change (1989–2020), its western and south-western parts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important part of the Earth's environmental system, sandy soils are particularly sensitive to changes in the climatic environment. As one of the four major desert regions in China, the MuUs desert has transformed from a desert to an oasis after more than half a century of ecological management. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and fraction vegetation cover in the MuUs desert based on the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) product with high spatial and temporal resolution and assessed the relationships between their variability and snow cover, air temperature, and precipitation. It is of great significance to understand the effect of desertification control and climate change after the conversion of land surface types in the MuUs region. The results show that the desertification control in the MuUs area has achieved remarkable results since 1982. The fraction vegetation coverage of the MuUs desert showed a significant increasing trend, with an interannual change rate of 1.32% each decade−1. The surface albedo of MuUs desert decreased significantly. Affected by vegetation and snow cover, it was lower in summer and higher in winter. The evapotranspiration showed a significant upward trend, higher in summer and lower in winter, which is significantly correlated with the changes in surface albedo, air temperature, and vegetation. In addition, the local-scale biophysical effects caused by vegetation change have influenced the climate of the MuUs region, manifested as the increase in precipitation and air temperature. In general, with the support of relevant policies and human construction projects, the overall ecological environment in the MuUs desert is developing in a good way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to identify the trends of changes in atmospheric precipitation percolation under the changing climate conditions of Lithuania (the East Baltic region) based on long-term lysimeter studies. Data from 1987–2022 research (n = 1296) was used to determine trends in precipitation infiltration changes. Two 10-year periods, 1989–1998 and 2011–2020, were selected from the whole observation period (1987–2022) to assess changes in precipitation infiltration due to climate change. The air temperature has increased significantly in November (+3.4 °C) and December (+3.3 °C), with a +2.2 °C increase in the standard climate normal. The distribution of yearly precipitation has changed, with the annual amount decreasing from 686 to 652 mm. Precipitation increased the most in July and August (10.9 and 22.9 mm). In autumn, the amount of precipitation decreased by 7.9–31.1 mm. The number of rainy days did not change during the year, but the frequency of heavy precipitation increased significantly in August. The annual percolation increased by 14.2% over 2011–2020 compared to 1989–1998. Percolation increased by 19.0, 22.3, and 20.1% during the spring, autumn, and winter, respectively, and decreased by 35.0% in summer. The increase in annual percolation is mostly related to the increase in temperature during the cold season: November and December. During these months, the likelihood of early freeze formation, which interrupts gravitational water percolation in soil, is significantly reduced. In the spring, the increase in average air temperatures in March leads to faster melting of the winter snow in a shorter period, which significantly increases percolation processes. In Lithuania, higher percolation in autumn and winter, when part of the agricultural land is not covered by vegetation, may lead to higher leaching of chemical elements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal hemisphere has been experiencing increasing extreme hot and dry conditions over the past few decades, consistent with anthropogenic climate change. The continental extension of this phenomenon calls for tools and techniques capable of monitoring the global to regional scales. In this context, satellite data can satisfy the need for global coverage. The main objective we have addressed in the present paper is the capability of infrared satellite observations to monitor the vegetation stress due to increasing drought and heatwaves in summer. We have designed and implemented a new water deficit index (wdi) that exploits satellite observations in the infrared to retrieve humidity, air temperature, and surface temperature simultaneously. These three parameters are combined to provide the water deficit index. The index has been developed based on the Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer or IASI, which covers the infrared spectral range 645 to 2760 cm−1 with a sampling of 0.25 cm−1. The index has been used to study the 2017 heatwave, which hit continental Europe from May to October. In particular, we have examined southern Italy, where Mediterranean forests suffer from climate change. We have computed the index's time series and show that it can be used to indicate the atmospheric background conditions associated with meteorological drought. We have also found a good agreement with soil moisture, which suggests that the persistence of an anomalously high water deficit index was an essential driver of the rapid development and evolution of the exceptionally severe 2017 droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper looks at regional water security in eastern China in the context of global climate change. The response of runoff to climate change in the Qinhuai River Basin, a typical river in eastern China, was quantitatively investigated by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the ensemble projection of multiple general circulation models (GCMs) under three different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios. The results show that the calibrated SWAT model is applicable to the Qinhuai River Basin and can accurately characterize the runoff process at daily and monthly scales with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE), correlation coefficients (R), and the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) in calibration and validation periods being above 0.75 and relative errors (RE) are ±3.5%. In comparison to the baseline of 1980–2015, the mean annual precipitation in the future period (2025–2060) under the three emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 will probably increase by 5.64%, 2.60%, and 6.68% respectively. Correspondingly, the multiple-year average of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures are projected to rise by 1.6–2.1 °C and 1.4–2.0 °C, respectively, in 2025–2060. As a result of climate change, the average annual runoff will increase by 16.24%, 8.84%, and 17.96%, respectively, in the period of 2025–2060 under the three SSPs scenarios. The increase in runoff in the future will provide sufficient water supply to support socioeconomic development. However, increases in both rainfall and runoff also imply an increased risk of flooding due to climate change. Therefore, the impact of climate change on flooding in the Qinhuai River Basin should be fully considered in the planning of flood control and the basin's development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the annual and seasonal variations in the minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmin and Tmax) and precipitation over Kashmir valley, Northwestern Himalayas from 1980–2019 by using the innovative trend analysis (ITA), Mann-Kendall (MK), and Sen's slope estimator methods. The results indicated that the annual and seasonal Tmin and Tmax are increasing for all the six climatic stations, whereas four of them exhibit significant increasing trends at (α = 0.05). Moreover, this increase in Tmin and Tmax was found more pronounced at higher altitude stations, i.e., Pahalgam (2650 m asl) and Gulmarg (2740 m asl). The annual and seasonal precipitation patterns for all climatic stations showed downward trends. For instance, Gulmarg station exhibited a significant downward trend for the annual, spring, and winter seasons (α = 0.05). Whereas, Qazigund showed a significant downward trend for the annual and spring seasons (α = 0.05). The overall analysis revealed that the increased Tmin and Tmax trends during the winter season are one of the reasons behind the early onset of melting of snow and the corresponding spring season. Furthermore, the observed decreased precipitation trends could result in making the region vulnerable towards drier climatic extremes. Such changes in the region's hydro-meteorological processes shall have severe implications on the delicate ecological balance of the fragile environment of the Kashmir valley. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of long-term temperature monitoring at the Yakutsk and Zeleny Lug stations, which are experimental sites, for the thermal state of valley permafrost landscapes under the conditions of modern climate warming. An analysis of the long-term data from meteorological stations in the region clearly showed one of the highest trends of increase in the mean annual air temperature in the north of Russia. Here, we established quantitative regularities in the long-term variability of the ground temperature at the bottom of the active layer and at zero amplitude. The dynamics of the ground temperature of the layer of zero amplitude during climate warming indicate the thermal stability of permafrost. The main regulating factor of the thermal state of grounds in permafrost landscapes is short-term fluctuations in the regime of snow accumulation. Active layer thickness is characterized by low interannual variability, weak climate warming responses, and insignificant trends. The results of studies of the thermal regime of soils can be extended to the same types of valley landscapes in the Lena River, and are a reliable basis for predicting heat transfer in natural and disturbed landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study demonstrates the successful use of the high sensitivity of L-band brightness temperatures to snow liquid water in the retrieval of snow liquid water from multi-angular L-band brightness temperatures. The emission model employed was developed from parts of the "microwave emission model of layered snowpacks" (MEMLS), coupled with components adopted from the "L-band microwave emission of the biosphere" (L-MEB) model. Two types of snow liquid water retrievals were performed based on L-band brightness temperatures measured over (i) areas with a metal reflector placed on the ground ("reflector area"-TB,R), and (ii) natural snow-covered ground ("natural area"-TB,N). The reliable representation of temporal variations of snow liquid water is demonstrated for both types of the aforementioned quasi-simultaneous retrievals. This is verified by the fact that both types of snow liquid water retrievals indicate a dry snowpack throughout the "cold winter period" with frozen ground and air temperatures well below freezing, and synchronously respond to snowpack moisture variations during the "early spring period". The robust and reliable performance of snow liquid water retrieved from TB,R, together with their level of detail, suggest the use of these retrievals as "references" to assess the meaningfulness of the snow liquid water retrievals based on TB,N. It is noteworthy that the latter retrievals are achieved in a two-step retrieval procedure using exclusively L-band brightness temperatures, without the need for in-situ measurements, such as ground permittivity εG and snow mass-density rS. The latter two are estimated in the first retrieval-step employing the well-established two-parameter (ρS, εG) retrieval scheme designed for dry snow conditions and explored in the companion paper that is included in this special issue in terms of its sensitivity with respect to disturbative melting effects. The two-step retrieval approach proposed and investigated here, opens up the possibility of using airborne or spaceborne L-band radiometry to estimate (ρS, εG) and additionally snow liquid water as a new passive L-band data product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The so-called urban heat islands (UHI) is a thermal phenomenon characterized by higher air temperatures in the urban area than in rural surroundings. Vernacular passive strategies such as courtyards are proved to be useful to generate specific microclimates, especially in the warmer regions of the Earth. Courtyards increase the porosity of the cities, understanding porosity as building voids. Accordingly, their study will be fundamental in reducing the UHI effect by generating urban cooling microislands. This paper aims to analyze two passive strategies capable of modifying the thermal effect of radiation inside the courtyard of two school buildings: albedo and vegetation. In this regard, two case studies were assessed, both of them located in the city of Seville. Results show that the temperature in these spaces can vary up to 7 °C depending on the albedo, which confirms the importance of detecting an optimal albedo factor. In addition, data showed a significant increase in the thermal delta (TD), courtyard versus outdoor temperature, after the installation of a vegetal facade. Accordingly, both strategies will be fundamental in locations affected by climate change, especially considering that they are not only effective cooling strategies but also relatively easy to implement in the building's refurbishment process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gradually increasing durations of high temperature caused by climate change harm the health of individuals and then lead to death. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between durations of different daily mean air-temperature categories and mortality in China and forecast future mortality changes in China for 2020–2050 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The daily mean air temperature was divided into 10 categories, and the days under each air-temperature category were counted during the period of 2000–2015. Then, the connection between the days of each of the 10 air-temperature categories and mortality was established using the semi parametric regression model. Results indicate that the days of the >32 °C category have the largest impact on mortality in China, with the death rate increasing by 23‰ for one additional day. Predictions reveal that mortality in China will increase 25.48% and 26.26% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, the mortality of 86 regions in western China will increase 30.42%. Therefore, in the future, the increasing duration of days of high temperatures will raise the mortality rate in China and aggravate the mortality gap between developed and underdeveloped regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Asia is a region that is highly vulnerable to drought disasters during the spring season, as this period is critical for planting, germinating, and growing staple crops such as wheat, maize, and rice. The climate in East Asia is significantly influenced by three large-scale climate variations: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In this study, the spring meteorological drought was quantified using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for March, April, and May. Initially, coupled climate networks were established for two climate variables: sea surface temperature (SST) and SPEI. The directed links from SST to SPEI were determined based on the Granger causality test. These coupled climate networks revealed the associations between climate variations and meteorological droughts, indicating that semi-arid areas are more sensitive to these climate variations. In the spring, PDO and ENSO do not cause extreme wetness or dryness in East Asia, whereas IOD does. The remote impacts of these climate variations on SPEI can be partially explained by atmospheric circulations, where the combined effects of air temperatures, winds, and air pressure fields determine the wet/dry conditions in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil water and soil temperature are important ecological factors and driving forces for ecosystem restoration and sustainable development, possessing great significance for climate modeling and prediction. The Hengduan Mountains in southeastern Tibet, China, are located in a climate-change-sensitive area, and the study of soil hydrothermal dynamics in this area is of great significance for local and global climatic change and water resource utilization. This study, based on the soil hydrothermal and meteorological data of the Hengduan Mountain area in Southeast Tibet, analyzes the dynamic change patterns of soil hydrothermal and meteorological factors and explores their influencing relationships. It was found that the dynamic change in soil water content affected by precipitation was "bimodal" type. Among the meteorological factors, soil water content has the strongest correlation with relative humidity. The intra-annual variation curve of soil temperature is similar to that of the atmospheric temperature, showing a "unimodal" type, and has the highest correlation with atmospheric temperature. Specifically, it takes 70 mm and 170 mm of precipitation to change the soil water content and soil temperature at the 150 cm depth. For every 20 °C change in atmospheric temperature, soil temperature above 150 cm changes by an average of 7.2 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban heat island (UHI) mitigation and adaptation are urgent needs in a built environment, which requires us to search for sustainable solutions to limit the urban heat island effect and improve the energy efficiency of building envelopes. Among these solutions, vertical green structures (VGSs) have recently attracted significant attention for their potential to mitigate adverse effects, especially in densely built areas. This study presents a comprehensive data analysis of the microclimate of a living wall in Milan, Italy. Our aim was to evaluate this VGS's performance in mitigating temperature increases caused by the UHI effect. In the literature, similar studies are limited to shorter monitoring periods (mostly in cooling seasons) and specific orientations (mostly facing south). However, the VGS presented in this case study here faces northwest and was continuously monitored for one calendar year. During this continuous in situ monitoring campaign, air temperature data from sensors either embedded in vegetation or exposed on a bare wall were collected and analysed over a whole calendar year, which is a novelty compared to the existing literature focused on VGSs due to the long duration. The findings indicate that the studied VGS has the ability to influence the outdoor microclimate depending on the season, the precipitation events, the wall exposure, the type of vegetation, and the vegetation's phenological attributes. The analysis showed that the VGS consistently maintained cooler temperatures than the bare wall, with mean temperature differences ranging from 2.8 °C in autumn to 0.8 °C in spring through the winter. The vegetation acted as a natural insulator by reducing the air temperature during the hot summer and in early autumn, corresponding to the growing period of the vegetation. Thus, VGSs show potential to mitigate the global warming effect. These findings provide valuable insights on vegetation's capability to act as a thermal regulator for sustainable urban planning and energy-efficient building design and retrofitting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of research on possible climate change in Bosnia and Herzegovina according to the climate scenario RCP8.5 and its potential impact on fruit production. Climate change analyses are based on expected fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation and climate indices. The results indicate pronounced climate change, which refers to an increase in annual temperature to 5 °C, and a decrease in annual precipitation of up to 30% and in the summer season (June, July, and August) and up to 40% by the end of the XXI century. In addition, an increase in the number of summer days and a decrease in the number of days with the appearance of snow can be expected. Reducing the number of days with snow and snow cover can cause a decrease in underground aquifers with water during the winter and spring seasons. These changes can have a serious impact on the problem of drought and water deficit, which can have direct consequences for the agricultural sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially for fruit production. These findings show that fundamental changes in agriculture and an approach to land treatment and water resources management, as well as fruit production planning in changed climatic conditions, are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite efforts to mitigate climate change, annual greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, which may lead to the global warming of our planet. Buildings' thermal energy needs are inherently linked to climate conditions. Consequently, it is crucial to evaluate how climate change affects these energy demands. Despite extensive analysis, a comprehensive assessment involving a diverse range of building types has not been consistently conducted. The primary objective of this research is to perform a coherent evaluation of the influence of climate changes, construction element properties, and the Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system type of control on the energy requirements of six buildings (residential, services, and commercial). The buildings are considered to be located in a temperate Mediterranean climate. Our focus is on the year 2070, considering three distinct climatic scenarios: (i) maintaining the current climate without further changes, (ii) moderate climate changes, and (iii) extreme climate changes. The buildings are distributed across three different locations, each characterized by unique climatic conditions. Buildings' envelope features a traditional External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) and expanded polystyrene (EPS) serves as thermal insulation material. Two critical design factors are explored: EPS thickness ranging from 0 (no insulation) to 12 cm; and horizontal external fixed shading elements varying lengths from 0 (absence) to 150 cm. Six alternative setpoint ranges are assessed for the HVAC system control: three based on the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and three based on indoor air temperature (Tair). Results were obtained with a validated in-home software tool. They show that, even under extreme climate conditions, the application of thermal insulation remains energetically favorable; however, its relative importance diminishes as climate severity increases. Then, proper insulation design remains important for energy efficiency. The use of external shading elements for glazing (e.g., overhangs, louvers) proves beneficial in specific cases. As climate changes intensify, the significance of shading elements grows. Thus, strategic placement and design are necessary for good results. The HVAC system's energy consumption depends on the level of thermal comfort requirements, on the climate characteristics, and on the building's type of use. As climate change severity intensifies, energy demands for cooling increase, whereas energy needs for heating decrease. However, it is essential to recognize that the impact of climate changes on HVAC system energy consumption significantly depends on the type of building. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An accurate simulation and projection of future warming are needed for a proper policy response to expected climate change. We examine the simulations of the mean global and Arctic surface air temperatures by the CMIP6 (Climate Models Intercomparison Project phase 6) climate models. Most models overestimate the observed mean global warming. Only seven out of 19 models considered simulate global warming that is within ±15% of the observed warming between the average of the 2014–2023 and 1961–1990 reference period. Ten models overestimate global warming by more than 15% and only one of the models underestimates it by more than 15%. Arctic warming is simulated by the CMIP6 climate models much better than the mean global warming. The reason is an equal spread of over and underestimates of Arctic warming by the models, while most of the models overestimate the mean global warming. Eight models are within ±15% of the observed Arctic warming. Only three models are accurate within ±15% for both mean global and Arctic temperature simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change (CC) threatens Mediterranean viticulture. Rhizospheric microorganisms may be crucial for the adaptation of plants to CC. Our objective was to assess whether the association of two grapevine varieties with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) increases grapevine's resilience to environmental conditions that combine elevated atmospheric CO2, increased air temperatures, and water deficit. Tempranillo (T) and Cabernet Sauvignon (CS) plants, grafted onto R110 rootstocks, either inoculated (+M) or not (−M) with AMF, were grown in temperature-gradient greenhouses under two environmental conditions: (i) current conditions (ca. 400 ppm air CO2 concentration plus ambient air temperature, CATA) and (ii) climate change conditions predicted by the year 2100 (700 ppm of CO2 plus ambient air temperature +4 °C, CETE). From veraison to maturity, for plants of each variety, inoculation treatment and environmental conditions were also subjected to two levels of water availability: full irrigation (WW) or drought cycles (D). Therefore, the number of treatments applied to each grapevine variety was eight, resulting from the combination of two inoculation treatments (+M and −M), two environmental conditions (CATA and CETE), and two water availabilities (WW and D). In both grapevine varieties, early drought decreased leaf conductance and transpiration under both CATA and CETE conditions and more markedly in +M plants. Photosynthesis did not decrease very much, so the instantaneous water use efficiency (WUE) increased, especially in drought +M plants under CETE conditions. The increase in WUE coincided with a lower intercellular-to-atmospheric CO2 concentration ratio and reduced plant hydraulic conductance. In the long term, mycorrhization induced changes in the stomatal anatomy under water deficit and CETE conditions: density increased in T and decreased in CS, with smaller stomata in the latter. Although some responses were genotype-dependent, the interaction of the rootstock with AMF appeared to be a key factor in the acclimation of the grapevine to water deficit under both current and future CO2 and temperature conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change inevitably affects vegetation growth in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Understanding the dynamics of vegetation phenology and the responses of vegetation phenology to climate change are crucial for evaluating the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Despite many relevant studies conducted in the past, there still remain research gaps concerning the dominant factors that induce changes in the start date of the vegetation growing season (SOS). In this study, the spatial and temporal variations of the SOS were investigated by using a long-term series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) spanning from 2001 to 2020, and the response of the SOS to climate change and the predominant climatic factors (air temperature, LST or precipitation) affecting the SOS were explored. The main findings were as follows: the annual mean SOS concentrated on 100 DOY–170 DOY (day of a year), with a delay from east to west. Although the SOS across the entire region exhibited an advancing trend at a rate of 0.261 days/year, there were notable differences in the advancement trends of SOS among different vegetation types. In contrast to the current advancing SOS, the trend of future SOS changes shows a delayed trend. For the impacts of climate change on the SOS, winter Tmax (maximum temperature) played the dominant role in the temporal shifting of spring phenology across the TP, and its effect on SOS was negative, meaning that an increase in winter Tmax led to an earlier SOS. Considering the different conditions required for the growth of various types of vegetation, the leading factor was different for the four vegetation types. This study contributes to the understanding of the mechanism of SOS variation in the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are few studies on the climate and glacial scale in the mountains east of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. So, we used glacial features to determine the range of the area's paleoglaciers and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of theGlA modern and paleoglaciers in the Tianchi area of the Changbai Mountains. Then, the GlaRe toolbox 2015 () was used to reconstruct the surface of the paleoglaciers. The probable air temperature during the glacial advances of the LGM was calculated by applying the P-T and LR models. The results showed the following: (1) the change in ELA is 950 m in the Tianchi area of the Changbai Mountains; (2) glacial coverage in the Tianchi area of the Changbai Mountains during the LGM period was ~27.05 km2 and the glacial volume was ~9.94 km3; and (3) the mean temperature in the Tianchi area of the Changbai Mountains during the LGM was 6.6–9.0 °C lower than today's, and was the principal factor controlling the growth of glaciers. There is a difference in the climate change in monsoon-influenced mountains during the LGM, and this difference may be related to the precipitation in the mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing global climate, characterized by rising surface air temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and heightened occurrences of extreme weather events, is anticipated to profoundly impact the environment, economy, and society worldwide. This impact is particularly acute in African nations like Angola, where crucial sectors, such as agriculture, rely heavily on climate variability and exhibit limited adaptive capacity. Given that the majority of Angola's agriculture is rain-fed and serves as a vital source of livelihood for the populace, the country is especially vulnerable to climate change, particularly in its southern region. Climate change has caused severe damage in Angola, especially in the southern part of the country, where the worst droughts in decades have affected over 3.81 million people, resulting in food and water shortages. Between 2005 and 2017, climate-related disasters cost the country about 1.2 billion US dollars, further exacerbating the economic and social challenges faced by the population. This study presents a systematic review of the effects of climate change on agriculture in Angola, with a focus on the southern region. Employing the PRISMA2020 methodology, the review examined 431 documents from databases such as Scopus and Web Science, spanning from 1996 to 2023, with 63 meeting inclusion criteria. The review reveals a paucity of research on the short and long-term impacts of climate change on Angolan agriculture. Projections indicate a rise in temperatures and a general decrease in precipitation, with the southern region experiencing a more pronounced decline. Agricultural productivity may suffer significantly, with models suggesting a potential 7% reduction by 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of climate warming significantly affects agroclimatic resources and agricultural production. We study the agroclimatic resources and their variability on the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan (Russia). The Bashkortostan has a high agricultural potential and holds a leading position in the country in the production of grain crops, potatoes, milk, and honey. Currently, no detailed studies have been conducted for this area to assess the effects of global climate change on agro-climatic resources. World experience shows such research becomes strategically important for regions with powerful agricultural production. We used the sums of average daily air temperatures above 0 and 10 °C, the G.T. Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient, and the Ped aridity (humidification) index as agroclimatic indicators. We used data of long-term meteorological observations of 30 meteorological stations for the period of 1961–2020. We revealed the long-term dynamics of the agroclimatic indicators and the spatial and temporal regularities in their distribution on the territory of Bashkortostan. There is a steady increase in the sums of average daily air temperatures above 0 and 10 °C. Against this background, aridity increases, which is especially manifested in the southern parts of the Republic of Bashkortostan. We assessed the impact of agroclimatic indicators on the main types of agricultural crops in the republic. We revealed that the greatest positive impact on the yield of oilseeds, cereals, and industrial crops is made by precipitation at the beginning (r = 0.50, r = 0.44, and r = 0.52, respectively) and in the middle of the growing season (r = 0.55, r = 0.76, and r = 0.51, respectively). Temperature and precipitation during the growing season have a complex effect on cereals. This is proven by correlations with HCS and the Ped index (r = 0.45 and r = −0.56, respectively). Aridity at the beginning of the growing season affects the yield of oilseeds and potatoes. This is confirmed by correlations with the Ped index (r = −0.49 and r = −0.52, respectively). In general, the aridity of the growing season has a significant impact on the yield of cereals (r = −0.57). Negative relationships have been found between the air temperature growing season and the yield of potatoes (r = −0.50) and cereals (r = −0.53). The results of the study were compared with data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service database. We identified climate trends under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. These scenarios should be taken into account when developing plans for the adaptation of agriculture in the Republic of Bashkortostan to changes in the regional climate. Maximum decrease in precipitation is established for the RCP 6.0 scenario. This can have an extremely negative impact on crop yields. This problem is especially relevant for the southern part of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The information presented in the study will allow for a more effective adaptation of the agricultural sector to current and future climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From an economic perspective, Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is one of Europe's most important tree species. It is characterized by its wide ecological adaptability across its natural range. This research aimed to evaluate the forest structure, productivity and especially radial growth of heterogenous pine stands in 16 research plots in the Czech Republic, Poland, Spain and Great Britain. The study assessed the tree-ring formation and its relationship to climate change for each country, using 163 dendrochronological samples. The stand volume of mature pine forest ranged between 91 and 510 m3 ha−1, and the carbon sequestration in the tree biomass was 40–210 t ha−1. The stands had a prevailing random distribution of trees, with a high vertical structure close to selection forests (forest stands with typical very diverse height, diameter and age structure). Spectral analyses showed a substantial decrease in fluctuations in the tree-ring index and a loss in natural growth cyclicity in the last thirty years. The results also evinced that mean air temperature was the most important factor influencing the radial growth compared to precipitation totals. Pine thrives in precipitation-stable locations, as shown by the results from Great Britain. The conclusions of this study confirm the fundamental effect of ongoing global climate change on the dynamics and growth of pine forests in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of the response of vegetation phenology in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau to various climatic variables is paramount to unveiling the reaction of alpine ecosystems to worldwide climate alterations. Nonetheless, the lagged and cumulative effects of various climatic variables on vegetation phenology in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau remain unclear. Therefore, based on MODIS NDVI data, we extracted vegetation phenological parameters from 2001 to 2020, including the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) and the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS), and then analyzed the response mechanisms of vegetation phenology to pre-seasonal air temperature (T), precipitation (P), and daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures (DLST, NLST) in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau on the basis of an investigation of the lag and cumulative effects. The results showed that: (1) the multiyear mean values of the SOS mainly occurred from 120 to 160 days, accounting for 86.17% of the study area, while the multiyear mean values of the EOS were mainly concentrated between 260 and 280 days, accounting for 77.05% of the study area; (2) air temperature (T), precipitation (P), and daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures (DLST, NLST) had different degrees of lagging effects on the SOS and the EOS. Among them, the time lag effect of precipitation on vegetation phenology was more pronounced; (3) different climatic variables had distinct cumulative effects on vegetation phenology. In contrast to the insignificant cumulative effects of temperature and nighttime surface temperature on the SOS and the EOS, the cumulative effects of precipitation and daytime land surface temperature on the SOS were more pronounced than those on the EOS; (4) the SOS and air temperature, precipitation, and NLST were mainly negatively correlated, in which the proportion of the negative correlation between SOS and NLST was up to 68.80%, and SOS and DLST were mainly positively correlated with a positive correlation proportion of 73.27%, EOS and air temperature, precipitation, and NLST were positively correlated with a positive correlation proportion of EOS and precipitation of up to 71.52%, and EOS and DLST were mainly negatively correlated with a negative correlation ratio of 55.87%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Liquid water path (LWP) is one of the most important cloud parameters and is crucial for global and regional climate modelling, weather forecasting, and modelling of the hydrological cycle and interactions between different components of the climate system: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, and the land surface. Space-borne observations by the SEVIRI instrument have already provided evidence of the systematic difference between the cloud LWP values derived over the land surface in Northern Europe and those derived over the Baltic Sea and major lakes during both cold and warm seasons. In the present study, the analysis of this LWP land-sea contrast for the period 2011–2017 reveals specific temporal and spatial variations, which, in some cases, seem to be artefacts rather than of natural origin. The geographical objects of investigation are water bodies and water areas located in Northern Europe that differ in size and other geophysical characteristics: the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga in the Baltic Sea and large and small lakes in the neighbouring region. The analysis of intra-seasonal features has detected anomalous conditions in the Gulf of Riga and the Gulf of Finland, which show up as very low values of the LWP land-sea contrast in August with respect to the values in June and July every year within the considered time period. This anomaly is likely an artefact caused by the LWP retrieval algorithm since the transition from large LWP contrast to very low contrast occurs sharply, synchronically, and at a certain date every year at different places in the Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate, seamless, and long-term land surface temperature (LST) data sets are crucial for investigating climate change and agriculture production. However, factors like cloud contamination have led to invalid values in the LST product, which has restricted the application of the LST dataset. Therefore, the reconstruction of LST products is challenging, and it is attracting widespread attention. This study compared the performance of different algorithms (XGBoost, GBDT, RF, POLY, MLR) and different training sets (using only good-quality pixels or using both good-quality and other-quality pixels) in the estimation of missing pixels in the LST data, obtaining a seamless daily 1 km LST dataset of MODIS Terra-day, Aqua-day, Terra-night, and Aqua-night data for Zhejiang Province and its surrounding areas from 2000 to 2022. The results demonstrated that the performance of machine-learning models is significantly better than that of linear models, and among the five models, XGBoost performed the best, with an RMSE of less than 1 °C. The Wilcoxon test between the reconstructed LST and the true LST values revealed that including both good-quality and other-quality pixels for reconstruction resulted in a 33% increase in the number of days with non-significant differences compared with using only good-quality pixels. Moreover, the reconstructed nighttime LST has a lower RMSE compared with the reconstructed daytime LST, and the RMSE of the reconstructed LST on the Terra satellite is lower than the RMSE of the reconstructed LST on the Aqua satellite. The RMSEs for the reconstructed LSTs are 0.50 °C, 0.61 °C, 0.36 °C, and 0.39 °C, corresponding to Terra-day, Aqua-day, Terra-night, and Aqua-night for images with coverage reaching 70%, 0.65 °C, 0.83 °C, 0.49 °C, respectively, and 0.52 °C for images with coverage less than 70%. The accuracy of the reconstructed LSTs using our proposed framework outperforms the existing reconstruction methods. The 1 km daily seamless LST products can be applied in various fields, such as air temperature estimation, climate change, urban heat island, and crop temperature stress monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atacama desert stands as the most arid, non-polar, region on Earth and has accommodated a considerable portion of the world's ground-based astronomical observatories for an extended period. The comprehension of factors important for observational conditions in this region, and the potential alterations induced by the escalating impact of climate change, are, therefore, of the utmost significance. In this study, we conduct an analysis of the surface-level air temperature, water vapour density, and astronomical seeing at the European Southern Observatory (commonly known by its acronym, ESO) telescope sites in northern Chile. Our findings reveal a discernible rise in temperature across all sites during the last decade. Moreover, we establish a correlation between the air temperature and water vapour density with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, wherein, the warm anomaly known as El Niño (EN) corresponds to drier observing conditions, coupled with higher maximum daily temperatures favouring more challenging near-infrared observations. The outcomes of this investigation have potential implications for the enhancement of the long-term scheduling of observations at telescope sites in northern Chile, thereby aiding in better planning and allocation of resources for the astronomy community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climatic conditions increase risks associated with crop production in certain regions. Early detection of these changes enables the implementation of suitable adaptation measures in the local area, thereby stabilising agricultural production. Our analysis shows a significant shift in climatic conditions in Czechia between 1961 and 2020. We examined the changes in observed temperature conditions, precipitation distribution, drought occurrences, and frost incidents at a high resolution (0.5 × 0.5 km). The outputs show a significant increase in air temperatures and drought occurrence. Temperature totals above 5 °C in 1991–2020 were 15% higher than in 1961–1990. Furthermore, the relative change in totals above 10 °C was 26% after 1991. Over the last 30 years, drought incidence was four times more frequent than in 1961–1990, particularly in spring. In contrast, no significant changes in the distribution of precipitation occurred, and there was a slight decrease in the probability of frost during the growing season. Ongoing climate change brings warmer and drier conditions to higher-altitude regions in Czechia. Assessing climatic conditions on a global scale is less precise for relatively small and topographically diverse countries like Czechia due to coarse resolution. Therefore, a high-resolution analysis is more appropriate for these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Xinjiang is one of the world's most sensitive and vulnerable regions to climate change. However, little is known about the current status and changes in thermal comfort conditions in this area. Using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) derived from the newly available high-resolution dataset HiTiSEA, the spatial–temporal pattern and changes thereof over annual and seasonal scales across Xinjiang from 1981 to 2019 were evaluated. The results reveal that the distribution and change of thermal comfort in Xinjiang have apparent regional heterogeneity and seasonal characteristics. Across all scales, 7 of 10 UTCI thermal stress categories were observed, from slight cold stress to strong heat stress. Annually, the mean UTCI is 3 °C and has significantly increased at 0.37 °C decade−1. The mean number of comfortable days (CDs) is 114 days, with a range from 0 to 189 days. On the space scale, the Tarim Basin experiences the highest UTCI value, while the Ili River Valley, the north side of the Tianshan Mountains, and the peripheral areas of the Tarim Basin have a higher number of CDs. Seasonally, summer has the highest UTCI value, while winter is the lowest. The trend for all seasons is upward, and spring increases fastest. Results also indicate that air temperature has a positive correlation with climate comfort, and the influence of air temperature on climate comfort is most significant. Further research indicates that the range and intensity of population exposure to uncomfortable climates in Xinjiang have increased. The distribution and expansion of population exposure are similar to the population density. These findings contribute to a systematic understanding of the local climate environment and can be helpful for the assessment of the impact of climate change and optimize tourism development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Climate change is causing an increase in air temperature, and consequently, animals are increasingly subject to heat stress, which is responsible for causing changes in their physiological and behavioral reactions, as well as reductions in feed intake, efficiency, growth, reproduction and milk and meat production. There are not only climate spaces for daily functions, but also climate cliffs that cause reproductive failures in the face of climate warming. The objective of this study was to develop a state-of-the-art model that calculates the impacts of climate and animal variables on milk production, metabolic rate, feed consumption and water needs. The study identifies current and future monthly latitudinal climate change impacts on milk production and feed and water needs in dairy cows on high-grain versus high-forage diets at three arbitrary north latitudes, 12°, 30° and 60°, for North and Central America and Asia. These three latitudes encompass current northern hemisphere bovine production environments and possible future production locations. The greatest impacts of climate change will be in the low elevations in tropical and subtropical regions. Global regions above 30° and below 60° latitude with reliable rainfall will be least affected by current projected levels of climate change. The effects of climate change on animals are typically viewed in terms of survivability and wellbeing. In this study, we broaden that purview to include climate impacts on reproductive capability. There are not only climate spaces for daily function, but climate cliffs that represent reproductive failures in the face of climate warming. This alternative focus suggests that climate warming challenges may be more immediate and profound than initially imagined. This research describes a state-of-the-art mechanistic model, Dairy Niche Mapper (DNM), and independent validation tests. Where test data are absent, the calculated results are consistent with expected responses. Simulations of metabolic chamber conditions reveal the local steady-state impacts of climate and animal variables on milk production capacity, metabolic rate, food consumption and water needs. Simulations of a temperature humidity index (THI) show strengths and limitations of that approach. Broader time- and spatial-scale calculations applied in the western and eastern halves of the northern hemisphere identify current and future monthly latitudinal climate change impacts on milk production potential, feed and water needs in dairy cows of different sizes. Dairy Niche Mapper (DNM) was developed from a broadly tested mechanistic microclimate-animal model, Niche Mapper (NM). DNM provides an improved quantitative understanding of the complex nonlinear interactions of climate variation and dairy bovine properties' effects on current and future milk production, feed and water needs for grazing and confinement dairy operations. DNM outputs include feasible activity times, milk production and water and feed needs of different-sized Holstein cows on high-grain (confinement feeding) versus high-forage (grazing feeding) diets at three arbitrary north latitudes, 12°, 30° and 60°, for North and Central America and for Asia. These three latitudes encompass current northern hemisphere bovine production environments and possible future production locations. The greatest impacts of climate change will be in the low elevations in tropical and subtropical regions. Global regions above 30° and below 60° latitude with reliable rainfall will be least affected by current projected levels of climate change. This work provides the basis for computational animal design for guiding agricultural development via breeding programs, genetic engineering, management options including siting or the manipulation of other relevant environmental and animal variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can affect hydrological cycles on local and remote scales through land–atmosphere interactions. However, TP long-term surface soil moisture characteristics and their response to climate change are still unclear. In this study, we firstly evaluate two satellite-based products—SSM/I (the Special Sensor Microwave Imagers) and ECV COMBINED (the Essential Climate Variable combined)—and three reanalysis products—ERA5-Land (the fifth generation of the land component of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis), MERRA2 (the second version of Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications), and GLDAS Noah (the Noah land surface model driven by Global Land Data Assimilation System)—against two in situ observation networks. SSM/I and GLDAS Noah outperform the other soil moisture products, followed by MERRA2 and ECV COMBINED, and ERA5-Land has a certain degree of uncertainty in evaluating TP surface soil moisture. Analysis of long-term soil moisture characteristics during 1988–2008 shows that annual and seasonal mean soil moisture have similar spatial distributions of soil moisture decreasing from southeast to northwest. Additionally, a significant increasing trend of soil moisture is found in most of the TP region. With a non-linear machine learning method, we quantify the contribution of each climatic variable to warm-season soil moisture. It indicates that precipitation dominates soil moisture changes rather than air temperature. Pixel-wise partial correlation coefficients further show that there are significant positive correlations between precipitation and soil moisture over most of the TP region. The results of this study will help to understand the role of TP soil moisture in land–atmosphere coupling and hydrological cycles under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The temporal variability of air temperature in the Middle Volga region from 1828 to 2021 is considered according to instrumental observations at the oldest meteorological station in the east of the East European Plain (Kazan University) and throughout the Asian part of Russia against the background of long-term climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere of Earth. A general trend toward an increase in air temperature was revealed. It was found that climate change in Kazan was consistent with the climatic processes that occurred in the Middle Volga region as a whole. The greatest warming for the entire observation period was observed in the winter and spring seasons of the year. In December, warming occurred at a maximum rate of 0.28 °C/10 years. At the same time, the most intense warming process was observed from 1991 to 2021. The analysis of low-frequency fluctuations in the series of monthly average air temperatures made it possible to identify different periods of change, both in type (direction) and intensity. It is shown that in the Middle Volga region, positive anomalies of air temperature have occurred more often than negative ones in recent decades. Statistical data processing was also carried out for 30-year periods, starting from the first period, i.e., 1841–1870. This made it possible to reveal long-term changes in air temperature. Comparisons of climatic parameters in two periods, i.e., 1828–1945 and 1946–2021, allowed us to reliably detect the climatic beginning of the increasingly identifiable Anthropocene epoch (since 1946), characterized by a sharp increase in air temperature, increased interannual variability of the air temperature regime, and a significant increase (by about three times) in the rate of warming in the Middle Volga region. A correlation was made between atmospheric circulation indices and air temperature fluctuations in Kazan over different periods. The closest relationship was found for the 1990–2020 period. It is shown that the contribution of global factors to air temperature variability in the Middle Volga region during the Anthropocene reached 37% in winter and 32% in summer; in annual terms, this contribution amounted to 54%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes are vital components of the Earth's hydrological cycle and are susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Understanding the changes in terms of minimum and maximum lake surface temperatures is crucial for assessing the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems. This study focuses on ten lakes in Poland to investigate the impacts of climate change on lake temperatures in different geographical regions. The Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen tests were employed to analyze trends and changes in minimum and maximum water temperatures, respectively. The results reveal significant increases in the minimum and maximum temperatures, particularly in May and June. Different lakes exhibit varying trends and variability in temperature changes over time, indicating the vulnerability of these ecosystems. The current study also examines the magnitude of annual temperature changes and classifies them into different levels. This analysis highlights the complex relationship between air temperature, seasonal cycles, and lake morphometric characteristics in shaping variations in lake surface water temperature. These findings contribute to understanding the impacts of climate change on Poland's lakes and provide valuable insights for developing conservation strategies and adaptive measures to protect freshwater resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of previous studies have contributed to a better understanding of the thermal impacts of dam-related reservoirs on stream temperature, but very few studies have focused on air temperature, especially at the catchment scale. In addition, due to the lack of quantitative analysis, the identification of the effects of water impoundment on regional air temperature is still lacking. We investigated the impacts of reservoirs on the regional air temperature changes before and after two large dam constructions in the lower Jinsha River located in southwest China, by using a 40 year record of reanalysis data at 90 m resolutions. Furthermore, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model was also employed to construct an impoundment effect on the temperature (IET) index. Research results indicate that compared to the pre-impoundment period (1980–2012), the variations in the air temperature at the catchment scale were reduced during the post-impoundment period (2013–2019). The annual maximum air temperature decreased by 0.4 °C relative to the natural regimes. In contrast, the cumulative effects of dam-related reservoirs increased the annual mean and minimum air temperature by 0.1 °C and 1.0 °C, respectively. Warming effects prevailed during the dry season and in the regions with high elevations, while cooling effects dominated within a 4 km buffer of the reservoirs. Therefore, this study offers important insights about the impacts of anthropogenic impoundments on air temperature changes, which could be useful for policymakers to have a more informed and profound understanding of local climate changes in dammed areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global warming produces dramatic climate changes, water management is facing increasingly serious challenges. Given to the process of climate change and its complex effects on watershed hydrology, this paper investigates the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of major climatic factors (i.e., precipitation and temperature) over the upper Yangtze River basin (UYRB), China. The statistical analyses are based on annual and seasonal scales during 1951–2020 with a recorded period of seven decades. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and R/S analysis are used to record the temporal trends (past and future) of climate variables; the Pettitt test, standard normal homogeneity test and Buishand test are used to detect the homogeneity in climate series. The sensitivities of the streamflow to climatic parameters are assessed at the watershed scale, especially considering the Three Gorges Dam's (TGD) effect on changing runoff. The results of the study indicate that the annual precipitation of 29 out of 34 series indicate homogeneity, while 31 out of 34 annual mean temperature series show heterogeneity, with jump points around 1997 in the mean temperature of 20 sites. Detectable changes in precipitation were not observed during 1951–2020; however, the temperature increased significantly in the whole basin on annual and seasonal scales, except for several stations in the eastern part. The magnitude of increase in air temperature in high altitudes (Tibet Plateau) is higher than that in low altitudes (Sichuan Plain) over the last seven decades, and future temperatures continue to sharply increase in high altitudes. The TGD plays an important role in explaining the seasonal variations in streamflow at Yichang station, with streamflow experiencing a sharp increase in winter and spring (dry season) and a decrease in summer and autumn (rainy season) compared to the pre-TGD period. The streamflow variation at an annual scale is mainly regulated by climate fluctuation (variation in precipitation). During the last seven decades, increasing air temperature and decreases in rainfall and runoff signify reduced water resources availability, and the climate tends to be warmer and drier over the basin. The sensitivity of the streamflow to watershed precipitation is higher than that to temperature, with variation in annual rainfall explaining 71% of annual runoff variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate change affects the state of inland water bodies and their water balance, which is determined by a number of hydrometeorological and hydrogeological factors. An integral characteristic of changes in the water balance is the behavior of the level of lakes and reservoirs, which not only largely determines the physical and ecological state of water bodies, but also significantly affects the coastal infrastructure and socio-economic development of the region. This paper investigates the interannual variability of the level of the Ladoga and Onega lakes, the largest lakes in Europe located in the northwest of Russia, according to satellite altimetry data for 1993–2020. For this purpose, we used three specialized altimetry databases: DAHITI, G-REALM, and HYDROWEB. Water level data from these altimetry databases were compared with in-situ records at water level gauge stations. Information on air temperature (1945–2019) and precipitation (1966–2019) acquired at three meteostations located at Ladoga and Onega lakes was used to investigate interannual trends in the regional climate change. Finally, we discuss the potential impact of the lake level rise and regional climate warming on the infrastructure and operability of railways in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]