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Climate change is not only a likely prospect for the end of this century, but it is already occurring. Part of the changes will include global warming and increasing temperature variability, both at global and regional scales. This increased variability was investigated in this paper from the point of view of the occurrence of cold spells in the Alps in the future climate (2071-2100), compared with the present climate (1961-1990). For this purpose, a regionalisation of the climate change effects was performed within the Alps. To avoid possible errors in the estimate of the 2m air temperature, the analysis was performed on the soil surface temperature. To get realistic values for this variable, a land surface scheme, UTOPIA, has been run on the selected domain, using the output of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) simulations as the driving force. The results show that, in general, the number of cold breaks is decreasing over the Alps, due to the temperature increment. However, there are certain zones where the behaviour is more complicated. The analysis of the model output also allowed a relationship to be found between the number of cold breaks and their duration. The significance of these results over the whole area was assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals from GPM (IMERG-F) over Europe for the period 2014–2018 in order to evaluate application of the retrievals to hydrology. IMERG-F is compared with a large pan-European precipitation dataset built on rain gauge stations, i.e., the ENSEMBLES OBServation (E-OBS) gridded dataset. Although there is overall agreement in the spatial distribution of mean precipitation (R2 = 0.8), important discrepancies are revealed in mountainous regions, specifically the Alps, Pyrenees, west coast of the British Isles, Scandinavia, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas, and the Adriatic coastline. The results show that the strongest contributors to poor performance are pixels where IMERG-F has no gauges available for adjustment. If rain gauges are available, IMERG-F yields results similar to those of the surface observations, although the performance varies by region. However, even accounting for gauge adjustment, IMERG-F systematically underestimates precipitation in the Alps and Scandinavian mountains. Conversely, IMERG-F overestimates precipitation in the British Isles, Italian Peninsula, Adriatic coastline, and eastern European plains. Additionally, the research shows that gauge adjustment worsens the spatial gradient of precipitation because of the coarse resolution of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in the European Alps during recent years has led to decreased snow cover duration as well as increases in the frequency and intensity of summer heat waves. The risk of drought for alpine wetlands and temporary pools, which rely on water from snowmelt and provide habitat for specialist plant and amphibian biodiversity, is largely unknown and understudied in this context. Here, we test and validate a novel application of Sentinel-2 imagery aimed at quantifying seasonal variation in water surface area in the context of 95 small (median surface area <100 m2) and shallow (median depth of 20 cm) alpine wetlands in the French Alps, using a linear spectral unmixing approach. For three study years (2016–2018), we used path-analysis to correlate mid-summer water surface area to annual metrics of snowpack (depth and duration) and spring and summer climate (temperature and precipitation). We further sought to evaluate potential biotic responses to drought for study years by monitoring the survival of common frog (Rana temporaria) tadpoles and wetland plant biomass production quantified using peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We found strong agreement between citizen science-based observations of water surface area and Sentinel-2 based estimates (R2 = 0.8–0.9). Mid-summer watershed snow cover duration and summer temperatures emerged as the most important factors regulating alpine wetland hydrology, while the effects of summer precipitation, and local and watershed snow melt-out timing were not significant. We found that a lack of summer snowfields in 2017 combined with a summer heat wave resulted in a significant decrease in mid-summer water surface area, and led to the drying up of certain wetlands as well as the observed mortality of tadpoles. We did not observe a negative effect of the 2017 summer on the biomass production of wetland vegetation, suggesting that wetlands that maintain soil moisture may act as favorable microhabitats for above treeline vegetation during dry years. Our work introduces a remote sensing-based protocol for monitoring the surface hydrology of alpine wetland habitats at the regional scale. Given that climate models predict continued reduction of snow cover in the Alps during the coming years, as well as particularly intense warming during the summer months, our conclusions underscore the vulnerability of alpine wetlands in the face of ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent development of high-resolution climate models offers a promising approach in improving the simulation of precipitation, clouds and temperature. However, higher grid spacing is also a promising feature to improve the simulation of snow cover. In particular, it provides a refined representation of topography and allows for an explicit simulation of convective precipitation processes. In this study we analyze the snow cover in a set of decade-long high-resolution climate simulation with horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km over the greater Alpine region. Results are compared against observations and lower resolution models (12 and 50 km), which use parameterized convection. The simulations are integrated using the COSMO (Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling) model. The evaluation of snow water equivalent (SWE) in the simulation of present-day climate, driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, against an observational dataset, reveals that the high-resolution simulation clearly outperforms simulations with grid spacing of 12 and 50 km. The latter simulations underestimate the cumulative amount of SWE over Switzerland over the whole annual cycle by 33% (12 km simulation) and 56% (50 km simulation) while the high-resolution simulation shows a spatially and temporally averaged difference of less than 1%. Scenario simulations driven by GCM MPI-ESM-LR (2081–2090 RCP8.5 vs. 1991–2000) reveal a strong decrease of SWE over the Alps, consistent with previous studies. Previous studies had found that the relative decrease becomes gradually smaller with elevation, but this finding was limited to low and intermediate altitudes (as a 12 km simulation resolves the topography up to 2500 m). In the current study we find that the height gradient reverses sign, and relative reductions in snow cover increases above 3000 m asl, where important parts of the cryosphere are present. In addition, the simulations project a transition from permanent to seasonal snow cover at high altitudes, with potentially important impacts to Alpine permafrost. This transition and the more pronounced decline of SWE emphasize the value of the higher grid spacing. Overall, we show that high-resolution climate models offer a promising approach in improving the simulation of snow cover in Alpine terrain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]