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The complexity in stock index futures markets, influenced by the intricate interplay of human behavior, is characterized as nonlinearity and dynamism, contributing to significant uncertainty in long-term price forecasting. While machine learning models have demonstrated their efficacy in stock price forecasting, they rely solely on historical price data, which, given the inherent volatility and dynamic nature of financial markets, are insufficient to address the complexity and uncertainty in long-term forecasting due to the limited connection between historical and forecasting prices. This paper introduces a pioneering approach that integrates financial theory with advanced deep learning methods to enhance predictive accuracy and risk management in China's stock index futures market. The SF-Transformer model, combining spot-forward parity and the Transformer model, is proposed to improve forecasting accuracy across short and long-term horizons. Formulated upon the arbitrage-free futures pricing model, the spot-forward parity model offers variables such as stock index price, risk-free rate, and stock index dividend yield for forecasting. Our insight is that the mutual information generated by these variables has the potential to significantly reduce uncertainty in long-term forecasting. A case study on predicting major stock index futures prices in China demonstrates the superiority of the SF-Transformer model over models based on LSTM, MLP, and the stock index futures arbitrage-free pricing model, covering both short and long-term forecasting up to 28 days. Unlike existing machine learning models, the Transformer processes entire time series concurrently, leveraging its attention mechanism to discern intricate dependencies and capture long-range relationships, thereby offering a holistic understanding of time series data. An enhancement of mutual information is observed after introducing spot-forward parity in the forecasting. The variation of mutual information and ablation study results highlights the significant contributions of spot-forward parity, particularly to the long-term forecasting. Overall, these findings highlight the SF-Transformer model's efficacy in leveraging spot-forward parity for reducing uncertainty and advancing robust and comprehensive approaches in long-term stock index futures price forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Day by day pollution in cities is increasing due to urbanization. One of the biggest challenges posed by the rapid migration of inhabitants into cities is increased air pollution. Sustainable Development Goal 11 indicates that 99 percent of the world's urban population breathes polluted air. In such a trend of urbanization, predicting the concentrations of pollutants in advance is very important. Predictions of pollutants would help city administrations to take timely measures for ensuring Sustainable Development Goal 11. In data engineering, imputation and the removal of outliers are very important steps prior to forecasting the concentration of air pollutants. For pollution and meteorological data, missing values and outliers are critical problems that need to be addressed. This paper proposes a novel method called multiple iterative imputation using autoencoder-based long short-term memory (MIA-LSTM) which uses iterative imputation using an extra tree regressor as an estimator for the missing values in multivariate data followed by an LSTM autoencoder for the detection and removal of outliers present in the dataset. The preprocessed data were given to a multivariate LSTM for forecasting PM2.5 concentration. This paper also presents the effect of removing outliers and missing values from the dataset as well as the effect of imputing missing values in the process of forecasting the concentrations of air pollutants. The proposed method provides better results for forecasting with a root mean square error (RMSE) value of 9.8883. The obtained results were compared with the traditional gated recurrent unit (GRU), 1D convolutional neural network (CNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) approaches for a dataset of the Aotizhonhxin area of Beijing in China. Similar results were observed for another two locations in China and one location in India. The results obtained show that imputation and outlier/anomaly removal improve the accuracy of air pollution forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Going beyond previous work, this paper presents a systematic literature review that explores the deployment of satellites, drones, and ground-based sensors for yield prediction in agriculture. It covers multiple aspects of the topic, including crop types, key sensor platforms, data analysis techniques, and performance in estimating yield. To this end, datasets from Scopus and Web of Science were analyzed, resulting in the full review of 269 out of 1429 retrieved publications. Our study revealed that China (93 articles, >1800 citations) and the USA (58 articles, >1600 citations) are prominent contributors in this field; while satellites were the primary remote sensing platform (62%), followed by airborne (30%) and proximal sensors (27%). Additionally, statistical methods were used in 157 articles, and model-based approaches were utilized in 60 articles, while machine learning and deep learning were employed in 142 articles and 62 articles, respectively. When comparing methods, machine learning and deep learning methods exhibited high accuracy in crop yield prediction, while other techniques also demonstrated success, contingent on the specific crop platform and method employed. The findings of this study serve as a comprehensive roadmap for researchers and farmers, enabling them to make data-driven decisions and optimize agricultural practices, paving the way towards a fully digitized yield prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we forecasted the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) over the region of China using the bidirectional convolutional gated recurrent unit (BiConvGRU) model. We first generated the China Regional Ionospheric Maps (CRIMs) using GNSS observations provide by the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC). We then used gridded TEC maps from 2015 to 2018 with a 1 h interval from the CRIMs as the dataset, including quiet periods and storm periods of ionospheric TEC. The BiConvGRU model was then utilized to forecast the ionospheric TEC across China for the year 2018. The forecasted TEC was compared with the TEC from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2016), Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM), Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit (ConvGRU), Bidirectional Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (BiConvLSTM), and the 1-day Predicted Global Ionospheric Map (C1PG) provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE). In addition, indices including Kp, ap, Dst and F10.7 were added to the training dataset to improve the forecasting accuracy of the model (-A indicates no indices, while -B indicates with indices). The results verified that the prediction accuracies of the models integrated with these indices were significantly improved, especially during geomagnetic storms. The BiConvGRU-B model presented a decrease of 41.5%, 22.3%, and 13.2% in the root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the IRI-2016, ConvGRU, and BiConvLSTM-B models during geomagnetic storm days. Furthermore, at a specific grid point, the BiConvGRU-B model showed a decrease of 42.6%, 49.1%, and 31.9% in RMSE during geomagnetic quiet days and 30.6%, 34.1%, and 15.1% during geomagnetic storm days compared to the IRI-2016, C1PG, and BiConvLSTM-B models, respectively. In the cumulative percentage analysis, the BiConvGRU-B model had a significantly higher percentage of mean absolute error (MAE) within the range of 0–1 TECU in all seasons compared to the BiConvLSTM-B model. Meanwhile, the BiConvGRU-B model outperformed the BiConvLSTM-B model with lower RMSE for each month of 2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power is essential for planning power systems and constructing intelligent grids. However, this has become difficult due to the intermittency and instability of PV power data. This paper introduces a deep learning framework based on 7.5 min-ahead and 15 min-ahead approaches to predict short-term PV power. Specifically, we propose a hybrid model based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks with the Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm. To begin, the SSA decomposes the PV power series into several sub-signals. Then, the BO algorithm automatically adjusts hyperparameters for the deep neural network architecture. Following that, parallel BiLSTM networks predict the value of each component. Finally, the prediction of the sub-signals is summed to generate the final prediction results. The performance of the proposed model is investigated using two datasets collected from real-world rooftop stations in eastern China. The 7.5 min-ahead predictions generated by the proposed model can reduce up to 380.51% error, and the 15 min-ahead predictions decrease by up to 296.01% error. The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model in comparison to other forecasting methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate short-term forecasting of intensive rainfall has high practical value but remains difficult to achieve. Based on deep learning and spatial–temporal sequence predictions, this paper proposes a hierarchical dynamic graph network. To fully model the correlations among data, the model uses a dynamically constructed graph convolution operator to model the spatial correlation, a recurrent structure to model the time correlation, and a hierarchical architecture built with graph pooling to extract and fuse multi-level feature spaces. Experiments on two datasets, based on the measured cumulative rainfall data at a ground station in Fujian Province, China, and the corresponding numerical weather grid product, show that this method can model various correlations among data more effectively than the baseline methods, achieving further improvements owing to reversed sequence enhancement and low-rainfall sequence removal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in the operation of power systems. Recently, deep learning has been generally employed in short-term load forecasting, primarily in the extraction of the characteristics of digital information in a single dimension without taking into account of the impact of external variables, particularly non-digital elements on load characteristics. In this paper, we propose a joint MFF-SAM-GCN to realize short-term load forecasting. First, we utilize a Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network and One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN) in parallel connection to form a multi-feature fusion (MFF) framework, which can extract spatiotemporal correlation features of the load data. In addition, we introduce a Self-Attention Mechanism (SAM) to further enhance the feature extraction capability of the 1D-CNN network. Then with the deployment of a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), the external non-digital features such as weather, strength, and direction of wind, etc., are extracted. Moreover, the generated weight matrices are incorporated into the load features to enhance feature recognition ability. Finally, we exploit Bayesian Optimization (BO) to find the optimal hyperparameters of the model to further improve the prediction accuracy. The simulation is taken from our proposed model and six benchmark schemes by using the bus load dataset of the Shandong Open Data Network, China. The results show that the RMSE of our proposed MFF-SAM-GCN model is 0.0284, while the SMAPE is 9.453%,the MBE is 0.025, and R-squared is 0.989, which is better than the selected three traditional machine learning methods and the three deep learning models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban particulate matter forecasting is regarded as an essential issue for early warning and control management of air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM2.5). However, existing methods for PM2.5 concentration prediction neglect the effects of featured states at different times in the past on future PM2.5 concentration, and most fail to effectively simulate the temporal and spatial dependencies of PM2.5 concentration at the same time. With this consideration, we propose a deep learning-based method, AC-LSTM, which comprises a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) network, and attention-based network, for urban PM2.5 concentration prediction. Instead of only using air pollutant concentrations, we also add meteorological data and the PM2.5 concentrations of adjacent air quality monitoring stations as the input to our AC-LSTM. Hence, the spatiotemporal correlation and interdependence of multivariate air quality-related time-series data are learned by the CNN–LSTM network in AC-LSTM. The attention mechanism is applied to capture the importance degrees of the effects of featured states at different times in the past on future PM2.5 concentration. The attention-based layer can automatically weigh the past feature states to improve prediction accuracy. In addition, we predict the PM2.5 concentrations over the next 24 h by using air quality data in Taiyuan city, China, and compare it with six baseline methods. To compare the overall performance of each method, the mean absolute error (MAE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) are applied to the experiments in this paper. The experimental results indicate that our method is capable of dealing with PM2.5 concentration prediction with the highest performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest fires, as severe natural disasters, pose significant threats to ecosystems and human societies, and their spread is characterized by constant evolution over time and space. This complexity presents an immense challenge in predicting the course of forest fire spread. Traditional methods of forest fire spread prediction are constrained by their ability to process multidimensional fire-related data, particularly in the integration of spatiotemporal information. To address these limitations and enhance the accuracy of forest fire spread prediction, we proposed the AutoST-Net model. This innovative encoder–decoder architecture combines a three-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (3DCNN) with a transformer to effectively capture the dynamic local and global spatiotemporal features of forest fire spread. The model also features a specially designed attention mechanism that works to increase predictive precision. Additionally, to effectively guide the firefighting work in the southwestern forest regions of China, we constructed a forest fire spread dataset, including forest fire status, weather conditions, terrain features, and vegetation status based on Google Earth Engine (GEE) and Himawari-8 satellite. On this dataset, compared to the CNN-LSTM combined model, AutoST-Net exhibits performance improvements of 5.06% in MIou and 6.29% in F1-score. These results demonstrate the superior performance of AutoST-Net in the task of forest fire spread prediction from remote sensing images. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a multimodal deep learning method for forecasting the daily power generation of small hydropower stations that considers the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation, which compensates for the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods that do not consider differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation. First, the actual precipitation values measured by ground weather stations and the spatial distribution of precipitation observed by meteorological satellite remote sensing are used to complete the missing precipitation data through linear interpolation, and the gridded precipitation data covering a group of small hydropower stations are constructed. Then, considering the time lag between changes in the daily power generation of the group of small hydropower stations and precipitation, the partial mutual information method is used to estimate the "time difference" between the two, and combined with the precipitation grid data, a data set of the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation is generated. Finally, using only the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation and historical power generation data, a multimodal deep learning network based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) is constructed, and a highly accurate prediction model for the daily power generation of small hydropower stations is obtained. Taking the real power generation data of a group of small hydropower stations in southern China as an example, after considering the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation, the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is as high as 93%, which is approximately 5.8% higher than before considering the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation. In addition, compared with mainstream methods such as support vector regression (SVR) and the long–short-term memory network (LSTM) (the average accuracy is about 87%), and the average accuracy improvement of the proposed method is approximately 6%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to the importance of coalbed methane (CBM) as a source of energy, it is necessary to predict its future production. However, the production process of CBM is the result of the interaction of many factors, making it difficult to perform accurate simulations through mathematical models. We must therefore rely on the historical data of CBM production to understand its inherent features and predict its future performance. The objective of this paper is to establish a deep learning prediction method for coalbed methane production without considering complex geological factors. In this paper, we propose a multivariate long short-term memory neural network (M-LSTM NN) model to predict CBM production. We tested the performance of this model using the production data of CBM wells in the Panhe Demonstration Area in the Qinshui Basin of China. The production of different CBM wells has similar characteristics in time. We can use the symmetric similarity of the data to transfer the model to the production forecasting of different CBM wells. Our results demonstrate that the M-LSTM NN model, utilizing the historical yield data of CBM as well as other auxiliary information such as casing pressures, water production levels, and bottom hole temperatures (including the highest and lowest temperatures), can predict CBM production successfully while obtaining a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.91%. This is an improvement when compared with the traditional LSTM NN model, which has an MAPE of 1.14%. In addition to this, we conducted multi-step predictions at a daily and monthly scale and obtained similar results. It should be noted that with an increase in time lag, the prediction performance became less accurate. At the daily level, the MAPE value increased from 0.24% to 2.09% over 10 successive days. The predictions on the monthly scale also saw an increase in the MAPE value from 2.68% to 5.95% over three months. This tendency suggests that long-term forecasts are more difficult than short-term ones, and more historical data are required to produce more accurate results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a deep learning long-short-term memory (LSTM) method is applied to the forecasting of the critical frequency of the ionosphere F2 layer (foF2). Hourly values of foF2 from 10 ionospheric stations in China and Australia (based on availability) from 2006 to 2019 are used for training and verifying. While 2015 and 2019 are exclusive for verifying the forecasting accuracy. The inputs of the LSTM model are sequential data for the previous values, which include local time (LT), day number, solar zenith angle, the sunspot number (SSN), the daily F10.7 solar flux, geomagnetic the Ap and Kp indices, geographic coordinates, neutral winds, and the observed value of foF2 at the previous moment. To evaluate the forecasting ability of the deep learning LSTM model, two different neural network forecasting models: a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and a genetic algorithm optimized backpropagation neural network (GABP) were established for comparative analysis. The foF2 parameters were forecasted under geomagnetic quiet and geomagnetic disturbed conditions during solar activity maximum (2015) and minimum (2019), respectively. The forecasting results of these models are compared with those of the international reference ionosphere model (IRI2016) and the measurements. The diurnal and seasonal variations of foF2 for the 4 models were compared and analyzed from 8 selected verification stations. The forecasting results reveal that the deep learning LSTM model presents the optimal performance of all models in forecasting the time series of foF2, while the IRI2016 model has the poorest forecasting performance, and the BPNN model and GABP model are between two of them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate prediction of short-term load is crucial for the grid dispatching department in developing power generation plans, regulating unit output, and minimizing economic losses. However, due to the variability in customers' electricity consumption behaviour and the randomness of load fluctuations, it is challenging to achieve high prediction accuracy. To address this issue, we propose an ensemble deep learning model that utilizes reduced dimensional clustering and decomposition strategies to mitigate large prediction errors caused by non-linearity and unsteadiness of load sequences. The proposed model consists of three steps: Firstly, the selected load features are dimensionally reduced using singular value decomposition (SVD), and the principal features are used for clustering different loads. Secondly, variable mode decomposition (VMD) is applied to decompose the total load of each class into intrinsic mode functions of different frequencies. Finally, an ensemble deep learning model is developed by combining the strengths of LSTM and CNN-GRU deep learning algorithms to achieve accurate load forecasting. To validate the effectiveness of our proposed model, we employ actual residential electricity load data from a province in northwest China. The results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm performs better than existing methods in terms of predictive accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable in Earth system science that affects various hydrological and agricultural processes. Convolutional long short-term memory (Conv-LSTM) networks are widely used deep learning models for spatio-temporal SM prediction, but they are often regarded as black boxes that lack interpretability and transparency. This study aims to interpret Conv-LSTM for spatio-temporal SM prediction in China, using the permutation importance and smooth gradient methods for global and local interpretation, respectively. The trained Conv-LSTM model achieved a high R2 of 0.92. The global interpretation revealed that precipitation and soil properties are the most important factors affecting SM prediction. Furthermore, the local interpretation showed that the seasonality of variables was more evident in the high-latitude regions, but their effects were stronger in low-latitude regions. Overall, this study provides a novel approach to enhance the trust-building for Conv-LSTM models and to demonstrate the potential of artificial intelligence-assisted Earth system modeling and understanding element prediction in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, most deep learning (DL)-based models for precipitation forecasting face two conspicuous issues: the smoothing effect in the precipitation field and the degenerate effect of forecasting precipitation intensity. Therefore, this study proposes "time series residual convolution (TSRC)", a DL-based convolutional neural network for precipitation nowcasting over China with a lead time of 3 h. The core idea of TSRC is it compensates the current local cues with previous local cues during convolution processes, so more contextual information and less uncertain features would remain in deep networks. We use four years' radar echo reflectivity data from 2017 to 2020 for model training and one year's data from 2021 for model testing and compare it with two commonly used nowcasting models: optical flow model (OF) and UNet. Results show that TSRC obtains better forecasting performances than OF and UNet with a relatively high probability of detection (POD), low false alarm rate (FAR), small mean absolute error (MAE) and high structural similarity index (SSIM), especially at longer lead times. Meanwhile, the results of two case studies suggest that TSRC still introduces smoothing effects and slightly outperforms UNet at longer lead times. The most considerable result is that our model can forecast high-intensity radar echoes even for typhoon rainfall systems, suggesting that the degenerate effect of forecasting precipitation intensity can be improved by our model. Future works will focus on the combination of multi-source data and the design of the model's architecture to gain further improvements in precipitation short-term forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Streamflow forecasting is of great significance for water resources planning and management. In recent years, numerous data-driven models have been widely used for streamflow forecasting. However, the traditional single data-driven model ignores the utilization of different streamflow regimes. This study proposed an integrated framework for daily streamflow forecasting based on the regime recognition of flow sequences. The framework integrates self-organizing maps (SOM) for identifying streamflow sub-sequences, the random forests (RF) algorithm to select input variables for different streamflow sub-sequences, and a deep belief network (DBN) for establishing complex relationships between the selected input variables and streamflows for different sub-sequences. Specifically, the integrated framework was applied to forecast daily streamflow at the Xiantao hydrological station in the Hanjiang River Basin, China. The results show that the developed integrated framework has higher streamflow prediction accuracy than the single data-driven model (i.e., the DBN model in this study), with Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.91/0.81 and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.93/0.89 for the integrated framework/DBN model during the validation period, respectively. Additionally, the prediction accuracy of the peak flood was also improved. The relative error of the peak flood derived from the integrated framework was reduced by 4.6%, compared with the single DBN model. Overall, the constructed integration framework, considering the complex characteristic of different flow regimes, could improve the accuracy for daily streamflow forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely and accurate depth estimation of a shallow waterway can improve shipping efficiency and reduce the danger of waterway transport accidents. However, waterway depth data measured during actual maritime navigation is limited, and the depth values can have large variability. Big data collected in real time by automatic identification systems (AIS) might provide a way to estimate accurate waterway depths, although these data include no direct channel depth information. We suggest a deep neural network (DNN) based model, called DDTree, for using the real-time AIS data and the data from Global Mapper to predict waterway depth for ships in an accurate and timely way. The model combines a decision tree and DNN, which is trained and tested on the AIS and Global Mapper data from the Nantong and Fangcheng ports on the southeastern and southwestern coast of China. The actual waterway depth data were used together with the AIS data as the input to DDTree. The latest data on waterway depths from the Chinese maritime agency were used to verify the results. The experiments show that the DDTree model has a prediction accuracy of 91.15%. Therefore, the DDTree model can provide an accurate prediction of waterway depth and compensate for the shortage of waterway depth monitoring means. The proposed hybrid DDTree model could improve marine situational awareness, navigation safety, and shipping efficiency, and contribute to smart navigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An accurate groundwater level (GWL) forecast at multi timescales is vital for agricultural management and water resource scheduling in arid irrigated areas such as the Hexi Corridor, China. However, the forecast of GWL in these areas remains a challenging task owing to the deficient hydrogeological data and the highly nonlinear, non-stationary and complex groundwater system. The development of reliable groundwater level simulation models is necessary and profound. In this study, a novel ensemble deep learning GWL predictive framework integrating data pro-processing, feature selection, deep learning and uncertainty analysis was constructed. Under this framework, a hybrid model equipped with currently the most effective algorithms, including the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) for data decomposition, the genetic algorithm (GA) for feature selection, the deep belief network (DBN) model, and the quantile regression (QR) for uncertainty evaluation, denoted as CEEMDAN-GA-DBN, was proposed for the 1-, 2-, and 3-month ahead GWL forecast at three GWL observation wells in the Jiuquan basin, northwest China. The capability of the CEEMDAN-GA-DBN model was compared with the hybrid CEEMDAN-DBN and the standalone DBN model in terms of the performance metrics including R, MAE, RMSE, NSE, RSR, AIC and the Legates and McCabe's Index as well as the uncertainty criterion including MPI and PICP. The results demonstrated the higher degree of accuracy and better performance of the objective CEEMDAN-GA-DBN model than the CEEMDAN-DBN and DBN models at all lead times and all the wells. Overall, the CEEMDAN-GA-DBN reduced the RMSE of the CEEMDAN-DBN and DBN models in the testing period by about 9.16 and 17.63%, while it improved their NSE by about 6.38 and 15.32%, respectively. The uncertainty analysis results also affirmed the slightly better reliability of the CEEMDAN-GA-DBN method than the CEEMDAN-DBN and DBN models at the 1-, 2- and 3-month forecast horizons. The derived results proved the ability of the proposed ensemble deep learning model in multi time steps ahead of GWL forecasting, and thus, can be used as an effective tool for GWL forecasting in arid irrigated areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Production prediction plays an important role in decision making, development planning, and economic evaluation during the exploration and development period. However, applying traditional methods for production forecasting of newly developed wells in the conglomerate reservoir is restricted by limited historical data, complex fracture propagation, and frequent operational changes. This study proposed a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network-based model to achieve batch production forecasting in M conglomerate reservoir of China, which tackles the limitations of traditional decline curve analysis and conventional time-series prediction methods. The model is trained by four features of production rate, tubing pressure (TP), choke size (CS), and shut-in period (SI) from 70 multistage hydraulic fractured horizontal wells. Firstly, a comprehensive data preprocessing is implemented, including excluding unfit wells, data screening, feature selection, partitioning data set, z-score normalization, and format conversion. Then, the four-feature model is compared with the model considering production only, and it is found that with frequent oilfield operations changes, the four-feature model could accurately capture the complex variance pattern of production rate. Further, Random Forest (RF) is employed to optimize the prediction results of GRU. For a fair evaluation, the performance of the proposed model is compared with that of simple Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. The results show that the proposed approach outperforms the others in prediction accuracy and generalization ability. It is worth mentioning that under the guidance of continuous learning, the GRU model can be updated as soon as more wells become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is challenging for semantic segmentation of buildings based on high-resolution remote sensing images, given high variability of appearance and complicated backgrounds of the buildings and their images. In this communication, we proposed an ensemble multi-scale residual deep learning method with the regularizer of shape representation for semantic segmentation of buildings. Based on the U-Net architecture using residual connections and multi-scale ASPP (atrous spatial pyramid pooling) modules, our method introduced the regularizer of shape representation and ensemble learning of multi-scale models to enhance model training and reduce over-fitting. In our method, the shape representation was coded in an antoencoder that was used to encode and reconstruct the shape characteristics of the buildings. In prediction, we consider multi-scale trained models for different resolution inputs and side effects to obtain an optimal semantic segmentation. With the high-resolution image of the Changshan, an island county in China, we used two-thirds of the study region image to train the model and the remaining one-third for the independent test. We obtained the accuracy of 0.98–0.99, mean intersection over union (MIoU) of 0.91–0.93 and Jaccard coefficient of 0.89–0.92 in validation. In the independent test, our method achieved state-of-the-art performance (MIoU: 0.83; Jaccard index: 0.81). By comparing with the existing representative methods on four different data sets, the proposed method consistently improved the learning process and generalization. The study shows important contributions of ensemble learning of multi-scale residual models and regularizer of shape representation to semantic segmentation of buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air-borne particulate matter, PM2.5 (PM having a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers), has aroused widespread concern and is a core indicator of severe air pollution in many cities globally. In our study, we present a validated framework to predict the daily PM2.5 distributions, exemplified by a use case of Shijiazhuang City, China, based on daily aerosol optical depth (AOD) datasets. The framework involves obtaining the high-resolution spatiotemporal AOD distributions, estimation of the spatial distributions of PM2.5 and the prediction of these based on a convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) model. In the estimation part, the eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model has been determined as the estimation model with the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) of 32.86 µg/m3 and the highest coefficient of determination regression score function (R2) of 0.71, compared to other common models used as a baseline for comparison (linear, ridge, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and cubist). For the prediction part, after validation and comparison with a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), which is a traditional time-series prediction model, in both time and space, the ConvLSTM gives a more accurate performance for the prediction, with a total average prediction RMSE of 14.94 µg/m3 compared to SARIMA's 17.41 µg/m3. Furthermore, ConvLSTM is more stable and with less fluctuations for the prediction of PM2.5 in time, and it can also eliminate better the spatial predicted errors compared to SARIMA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]