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Among the activities that burden capital in the supply chain of forest-based industries, the activity of road transport of wood deserves to be highlighted. Machine learning techniques are applied the knowledge extracted from real data, and support strategies that aim to maximize the resources destined for it. Based on variables inherent to the wood transport activity, we verified whether machine learning models can act as predictors of the volume of wood to be transported and support strategic decision-making. The database came from companies in the pulp and paper segments, which totaled 26,761 data instances. After the data wrangling process, machine learning algorithms were used to build models, which were optimized from the hyperparameter adjustment and selected to compose the blended learning hierarchy. In addition to belonging to different methodological basis, a CatBoost Regressor, Decision Tree Regressor, and K Neighbors Regressor were selected mainly for providing minimal values to errors metrics and maximal values to determination coefficient. The learning by stack stands out, with a coefficient of determination of 0.70 and an average absolute percentage error of 6% in the estimation of the volume of wood to be transported. Based on variables inherent to the wood transport process, we verified that machine learning models can act in the prediction of the volume of wood to be transported and support strategic decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electronic paper (e-paper) is a major sector of Taiwan's Optoelectronic industry. It has paid much attention on the development of flexible displays. Even though the market is booming, the future is still unclear for business development. No research has yet forecasted the future market size of the e-paper industry. In addition, proposing an appropriate forecasting model to understand the trend of this industry plays a crucial role for market players and government's authorities in formulating correct strategies. Therefore, in this paper, the future market size of Taiwan's e-paper industry is predicted by an effective combined grey model. Two combinations of DGM(2,1) and Verhulst model with Fourier series and Markov chain, namely FM-Verhulst and FMDGM(2,1), were presented. Based on the annual data of Taiwan's e-paper industry, the results show that the forecasting performances of two FM-Verhulst and FMDGM(2,1) models are highly accurate compared with other grey models. Precision is 96.36% and 97.77%, respectively. However, for long-term prediction, the FMDGM(2,1) model obtains the best performance in all proposed grey models. With obtained forecasting results in Taiwan's e-paper industry by the FMDGM(2,1) model, it can be pointed out that the future market size of Taiwan's e-paper would slowly increase in the next few years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy prediction plays a significant role in energy-harvesting wireless sensors (EHWS), as it helps wireless sensors regulate their duty cycles, achieve energy neutrality, and extend their lifespan. To explore and analyze advanced technologies and methods regarding energy prediction for EHWS, this study identifies future research directions and addresses the challenges faced based on the current research status, assisting with future literature research. This scholarly inquiry delineates future research prospects and addresses prevailing challenges within the context of the extant research landscape, thereby facilitating prospective scholarly endeavors. This study employed the systematic mapping study (SMS) approach to screen and further investigate the relevant literature. After searching and screening for papers from the ACM, IEEE Xplore, and Web of Science (WOS) databases from January 2007 to December 2022, 98 papers met the requirements of this study. Subsequently, the SMS was conducted for five research questions. The results showed that the solution proposal type category had the largest proportion among all research types, accounting for 58% of the total number, indicating that the research focusing on this field is placed on improving the existing methods or proposing new ones. Additionally, based on the SMS analysis, this study provides a systematic review of the technical utilization and improvement approaches, as well as the strengths and limitations of the selected prediction methods. Furthermore, by considering the current research landscape, this paper identifies the existing challenges and suggests future research directions, thereby offering valuable insights to researchers for making informed decisions regarding their chosen paths. The significance of this study lies in its contribution to driving advancements in the field of energy-harvesting wireless sensor networks. The importance of this study is underscored by its contribution to advancing the domain of energy-harvesting wireless sensor networks, thereby serving as a touchstone for forthcoming researchers in this specialized field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real-time prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) is one of the most essential works in prognostics and health management (PHM) of the micro-switches. In this paper, a linear degradation model based on an inverse Kalman filter to imitate the stochastic deterioration process is proposed. First, Bayesian posterior estimation and expectation maximization (EM) algorithm are used to estimate the stochastic parameters. Second, an inverse Kalman filter is delivered to solve the errors in the initial parameters. In order to improve the accuracy of estimating nonlinear data, the strong tracking filtering (STF) method is used on the basis of Bayesian updating Third, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated on an experimental data relating to micro-switches for the rail vehicle. Additionally, it proposes another two methods for comparison to illustrate the effectiveness of the method with an inverse Kalman filter in this paper. In conclusion, a linear degradation model based on an inverse Kalman filter shall deal with errors in RUL estimation of the micro-switches excellently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In today's world, a significant amount of global energy is used in buildings. Unfortunately, a lot of this energy is wasted, because electrical appliances are not used properly or efficiently. One way to reduce this waste is by detecting, learning, and predicting when people are present in buildings. To do this, buildings need to become "smart" and "cognitive" and use modern technologies to sense when and how people are occupying the buildings. By leveraging this information, buildings can make smart decisions based on recently developed methods. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of recent advancements in Internet of Things (IoT) technologies that have been designed and used for the monitoring of indoor environmental conditions within buildings. Using these technologies is crucial to gathering data about the indoor environment and determining the number and presence of occupants. Furthermore, this paper critically examines both the strengths and limitations of each technology in predicting occupant behavior. In addition, it explores different methods for processing these data and making future occupancy predictions. Moreover, we highlight some challenges, such as determining the optimal number and location of sensors and radars, and provide a detailed explanation and insights into these challenges. Furthermore, the paper explores possible future directions, including the security of occupants' data and the promotion of energy-efficient practices such as localizing occupants and monitoring their activities within a building. With respect to other survey works on similar topics, our work aims to both cover recent sensory approaches and review methods used in the literature for estimating occupancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of the deep-learning algorithms on stock price volatility prediction in the existing literature use data such as same-frequency market indicators or technical indicators, and less consider mixed-frequency data, such as macro-data. Compared with the traditional model that only inputs the same-frequency data such as technical indicators and market indicators, this study proposes an improved deep-learning model based on mixed-frequency big data. This paper first introduces the reserve restricted mixed-frequency data sampling (RR-MIDAS) model to deal with the mixed-frequency data and, secondly, extracts the temporal and spatial features of volatility series by using the parallel model of CNN-LSTM and LSTM, and finally utilizes the Optuna framework for hyper-parameter optimization to achieve volatility prediction. For the deep-learning model with mixed-frequency data, its RMSE, MAE, MSLE, MAPE, SMAPE, and QLIKE are reduced by 18.25%, 14.91%, 30.00%, 12.85%, 13.74%, and 23.42%, respectively. This paper provides a more accurate and robust method for forecasting the realized volatility of stock prices under mixed-frequency data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) have been widely used in ocean missions. When they fail in the ocean, it is important to predict their trajectory. Existing methods rely heavily on historical trajectory data while overlooking the influence of the ocean environment on an AUV's trajectory. At the same time, these methods fail to use the dependency between variables in the trajectory. To address these challenges, this paper proposes an AUV trajectory prediction model known as the nonlinear Kepler optimization algorithm–bidirectional long short-term memory–time-variable attention (NKOA-BiLSTM-TVA) model. This paper introduces opposition-based learning during the initialization process of the KOA and improves the algorithm by incorporating a nonlinear factor into the planet position update process. We designed an attention mechanism layer that spans both time and variable dimensions, called TVA. TVA can extract features from both the time and variable dimensions of the trajectory and use the dependency between trajectory variables to predict the trajectory. First, the model uses a convolutional neural network (CNN) to extract spatial features from the trajectory. Next, it combines a BiLSTM network with TVA to predict the AUV's trajectory. Finally, the improved NKOA is used to optimize the model's hyperparameters. Experimental results show that the NKOA-BiLSTM-TVA model has an excellent parameter optimization effect and higher prediction accuracy in AUV trajectory prediction tasks. It also achieves excellent results in ship trajectory prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the field of risk assessment, the traditional econometric models are generally used to assess credit risk. And with the introduction of the "dual-carbon" goals to promote the development of a low-carbon economy, the scale of green credit in China has rapidly expanded. But with the advent of the big data era, due to the poor interpretability of a traditional single machine learning model, it is difficult to capture nonlinear relationships, and there are shortcomings in prediction accuracy and robustness. This paper selects the adjusted ensemble learning model based on the homogeneous and heterogeneous factors for user default prediction, which can efficiently process large quantities of high-dimensional data. This article adjusts each model to adapt to the task and innovatively compares various models. In this paper, the missing value filling method, feature selection, and ensemble model are studied and discussed, and the optimal ensemble model is obtained. When comparing the predictions of single models and ensemble models, the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1-Score, Kappa, and MCC of Categorical Features Gradient Boosting (CatBoost) and Random undersampling Boosting (RUSBoost) all reach 100%. The experimental results prove that the algorithm based on adjusted homogeneous and heterogeneous ensemble learning can predict the user default efficiently and accurately. This paper also provides some references for establishing a risk assessment index system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The disc-cutter is a finishing tool for the ultrasonic-cutting of paper honeycomb-core material. The cutting state directly affects the machining accuracy and surface quality of the workpiece. The cutting force is an important physical quantity and the cause of ultrasonic cutting defects of the honeycomb-core material. Due to differences in the mechanical properties and cutting performance of honeycomb-core materials and commonly used metal materials, existing metal-cutting-force models cannot be applied to the calculation of ultrasonic cutting forces in the processing of honeycomb-core materials. In response to this problem—combined with actual working conditions using the ABAQUS finite element analysis software—a finite element simulation model of the ultrasonic vibration-assisted cutting force of the disc-cutter on the honeycomb-core material was established, and the cutting curves and values were obtained. The experiment of ultrasonic vibration cutting of the disc-cutter proves that from the surface morphology of the honeycomb core, the milling-width has the greatest influence on the cutting force, and the cutting-depth has the smallest influence on the cutting force. The maximum error between the cutting force experimental results and the finite element simulation results under the same cutting conditions was 13.2%, which means that the established cutting-force finite element model is more accurate and can be used to predict the cutting in honeycomb ultrasonic vibration-assisted cutting-force value. Finally, based on the response surface method, a three-dimensional cutting force prediction model of the ultrasonic cutting honeycomb core of the disc-cutter was established by using the simulation model data. The results of this study can provide a useful basis for the improvement of cutting performance and processing efficiency in the processing of paper honeycomb-core materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm has been widely used in various optimization problems. Although PSO has been successful in many fields, solving optimization problems in big data applications often requires processing of massive amounts of data, which cannot be handled by traditional PSO on a single machine. There have been several parallel PSO based on Spark, however they are almost proposed for solving numerical optimization problems, and few for big data optimization problems. In this paper, we propose a new Spark-based parallel PSO algorithm to predict the co-authorship of academic papers, which we formulate as an optimization problem from massive academic data. Experimental results show that the proposed parallel PSO can achieve good prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an in-depth exploration of the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in enhancing the resilience of microgrids. It begins with an overview of the impact of natural events on power systems and provides data and insights related to power outages and blackouts caused by natural events in Estonia, setting the context for the need for resilient power systems. Then, the paper delves into the concept of resilience and the role of microgrids in maintaining power stability. The paper reviews various AI techniques and methods, and their application in power systems and microgrids. It further investigates how AI can be leveraged to improve the resilience of microgrids, particularly during different phases of an event occurrence time (pre-event, during event, and post-event). A comparative analysis of the performance of various AI models is presented, highlighting their ability to maintain stability and ensure a reliable power supply. This comprehensive review contributes significantly to the existing body of knowledge and sets the stage for future research in this field. The paper concludes with a discussion of future work and directions, emphasizing the potential of AI in revolutionizing power system monitoring and control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though lithium-ion batteries are extensively applied in electric vehicles as a power source due to their excellent advantages in recent years, the security risk has inarguably always existed. The state of health (SOH) of lithium-ion batteries is one of the most important indicators related to security, the prediction of SOH is paid close attention spontaneously. To improve the prediction accuracy of SOH, this paper constructs an SOH prediction model based on a multi-kernel relevance vector machine and error compensation (EC-MKRVM). The provided model comprises a pre-estimation model and an error compensation model, both of which use the multi-kernel relevance vector machine (MKRVM) algorithm. The pre-estimation model takes the feature factors extracted in the charging segment as the input variable and the SOH pre-estimation value as the output. The error compensation model takes the pre-estimation error sequence as the input variable and the SOH prediction error as the output. Finally, the SOH prediction error is used to compensate for the SOH pre-estimation value of the pre-estimation model, and the final SOH prediction value is obtained. To verify the effectiveness and advancement of the model, the CACLE dataset is used for comparative experimental analysis. The results show that the proposed prediction model in this paper has higher prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The operational stability of a power transformer exerts an extremely important impact on the power symmetry, balance, and security of power systems. When the grid load fluctuates greatly, if the load factor of the transformer cannot be maintained within a reasonable range, it leads to increased instability in grid operation. Adjusting the transformer capacity based on load changes is of great significance. The existing control methods for on-load capacity-regulating (OLCR) transformers have low timeliness, and the daily switching frequency of the capacity-regulating switch is not controlled. To ensure the safe and stable operation of transformers, this paper proposes a control method for OLCR transformers based on load prediction and fuzzy control. Firstly, the operating principle of OLCR transformers is analyzed, and a multi-strategy enhanced dung beetle optimizer (MSDBO) combined with a CNN−LSTM model is proposed for load forecasting. On this basis, the daily switching frequency of the capacity-regulating transformer is introduced, and hesitant fuzzy control is used to select the optimal capacity-regulating strategy relying on three factors: loss, economy, and switching frequency. Finally, simulation models are constructed using the MATLAB/SIMULINK platform and simulation analysis is conducted to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed control method. For the three scenarios in this paper, the method reduces daily power loss by 28.5% to 56.3% and daily operating costs by 25.4% to 50.8%. The method used in this paper can sacrifice 3.5% to 9.2% of the loss reduction capability in exchange for reducing the number of switch operations by 28.6% to 57.1%, significantly extending the lifespan of the switches and thereby increasing the operational lifespan of the transformer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AUVs are autonomous underwater robots equipped with advanced sensors and navigation systems. Due to the complexity and uncertainty of the marine environment, AUVs are susceptible to the effects of the marine environment and may experience communication delays or even accidents. Based on the aforementioned issues, this paper proposes a prediction method for lost AUVs based on an adaptive optimization depth BiLSTM (AWOA-DBiLSTM) neural network model. To enhance prediction accuracy, AWOA-DBiLSTM employs a double BiLSTM to extract AUV features from positional information and physical attitude. Additionally, AWOA-DBiLSTM utilizes a gating mechanism to filter and reset physical attitude feature information to obtain features associated with positional information. After undergoing filtering operations, the physical attitude information of the AUV is fused with the position information to achieve trajectory prediction. For the first time, the differentiation and stratified extraction of AUV data features are presented in this paper. The experimental results demonstrate that the model achieves significant improvements in prediction accuracy and generalization, and the present study is of great significance for application in the task of predicting the trajectories of lost AUVs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When new rail stations or lines are planned, long-term planning for decades to come is required. The short-term passenger flow prediction is no longer of practical significance, as it only takes a few factors that affect passenger flow into consideration. To overcome this problem, we propose several long-term factors affecting the passenger flow of rail transit in this paper. We also create a visual analysis of these factors using ArcGIS and construct a long-term passenger flow prediction model for rail transit based on a class neural network using an SPSS Modeler. After optimizing relevant parameters, the prediction accuracy reaches 94.6%. We compare the results with other models and find that the neural network model has a good performance in predicting long-term rail transit passenger flow. Finally, the factors affecting passenger flow are ranked in terms of importance. It is found that among these factors, bicycles available for connection have the biggest influence on the passenger flow of rail stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For various power equipment items such as aircraft engines and gas turbines with numerous components demanding requirements on processing accuracy and high structural complexity, processing errors tend to cause such problems as assembly rework, forced assembly and prolonged research and development cycle. In this paper, the core machine of micro gas turbine is taken as the research object to construct a simulation model of assembly-deviation prediction based on the design tolerance and actual measurement data. Then, an analysis is conducted on the assemblability of the design model and the key factors causing the deviation of the assembly. After conducting deviation calculations and simulation analysis, it was determined that the current mounting position is deemed to be suboptimal. In light of this finding, an optimized solution is proposed, which involves advancing the mounting phase by 0.47 mm. This adjustment effectively resolves the interference issue resulting from the design error. Moreover, the geometry, shape and three-dimensional contour of the key components are measured with high accuracy and precision to identify the key characteristic parameters affecting the outcome of the assembly. With an assembly-deviation-prediction and -analysis model established on the basis of actual measurement data, the results of the assembly-deviation analysis are compared with the outcome of the assembly, showing high consistency. The assembly-deviation-prediction method proposed in this paper on the basis of design tolerance and actual measurement data is applicable to the manufacture of aviation and combustion engines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term power load forecasting is of great significance for the reliable and safe operation of power systems. In order to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting, for the problems of random fluctuation in load and the complexity of load-influencing factors, this paper proposes a two-stage short-term load forecasting method, SSA–VMD-LSTM-MLR-FE (SVLM–FE) based on sparrow search algorithm (SSA), to optimize variational mode decomposition (VMD) and feature engineering (FE). Firstly, an evaluation criterion on the loss of VMD decomposition is proposed, and SSA is used to find the optimal combination of parameters for VMD under this criterion. Secondly, the first stage of forecasting is carried out, and the different components obtained from SSA–VMD are predicted separately, with the high-frequency components input to a long short-term memory network (LSTM) for forecasting and the low-frequency components input to a multiple linear regression model (MLR) for forecasting. Finally, the forecasting values of the components obtained in the first stage are input to the second stage for error correction; factors with a high degree of influence on the load are selected using the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and maximal information coefficient (MIC), and the load value at the moment that has a great influence on the load value at the time to be predicted is selected using autocorrelation function (ACF). The forecasting values of the components are fused with the selected feature values to construct a vector, which is fed into the fully connected layer for forecasting. In this paper, the performance of SVLM–FE is evaluated experimentally on two datasets from two places in China. In Place 1, the RMSE, MAE, and MAPE are 128.169 MW, 102.525 MW, and 1.562%, respectively; in Place 2, the RMSE, MAE, and MAPE are 111.636 MW, 92.291 MW, and 1.426%, respectively. The experimental results show that SVLM–FE has high accuracy and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and reliable medium- and long-term load forecasting is crucial for the rational planning and operation of power systems. However, existing methods often struggle to accurately extract and capture long-term dependencies in load data, leading to poor predictive accuracy. Therefore, this paper proposes a medium- and long-term residential load forecasting method based on FEDformer, aiming to capture long-term temporal dependencies of load data in the frequency domain while considering factors such as electricity prices and temperature, ultimately improving the accuracy of medium- and long-term load forecasting. The proposed model employs Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) for frequency domain transformation of time-series data to address the Gibbs phenomenon caused by the use of Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) in FEDformer. Additionally, causal convolution and attention mechanisms are applied in the frequency domain to enhance the model's capability to capture long-term dependencies. The model is evaluated using real-world load data from power systems, and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively learns the temporal and nonlinear characteristics of load data. Compared to other baseline models, DCTformer improves prediction accuracy by 37.5% in terms of MSE, 26.9% in terms of MAE, and 26.24% in terms of RMSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Network-security situation prediction is a crucial aspect in the field of network security. It is primarily achieved through monitoring network behavior and identifying potential threats to prevent and respond to network attacks. In order to enhance the accuracy of situation prediction, this paper proposes a method that combines a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a gated recurrent unit (GRU), while also incorporating an attention mechanism. The model can simultaneously handle the spatial and temporal features of network behavior and optimize the weight allocation of features through the attention mechanism. Firstly, the CNN's powerful feature extraction ability is utilized to extract the spatial features of the network behavior. Secondly, time-series features of network behavior are processed through the GRU layer. Finally, to enhance the model's performance further, we introduce attention mechanisms, which can dynamically adjust the importance of different features based on the current context information; this enables the model to focus more on critical information for accurate predictions. The experimental results show that the network-security situation prediction method, which combines a CNN and a GRU and introduces an attention mechanism, performs well in terms of the fitting effect and can effectively enhance the accuracy of situation prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term power load forecasting plays a key role in daily scheduling and ensuring stable power system operation. The problem of the volatility of the power load sequence and poor prediction accuracy is addressed. In this study, a learning model integrating intelligent optimization algorithms is proposed, which combines an ensemble-learning model based on long short-term memory (LSTM), variational modal decomposition (VMD) and the multi-strategy optimization dung beetle algorithm (MODBO). The aim is to address the shortcomings of the dung beetle optimizer algorithm (DBO) in power load forecasting, such as its time-consuming nature, low accuracy, and ease of falling into local optimum. In this paper, firstly, the dung beetle algorithm is initialized using a lens-imaging reverse-learning strategy to avoid premature convergence of the algorithm. Second, a spiral search strategy is used to update the dynamic positions of the breeding dung beetles to balance the local and global search capabilities. Then, the positions of the foraging dung beetles are updated using an optimal value bootstrapping strategy to avoid falling into a local optimum. Finally, the dynamic-weighting coefficients are used to update the position of the stealing dung beetle to improve the global search ability and convergence of the algorithm. The proposed new algorithm is named MVMO-LSTM. Compared to traditional intelligent algorithms, the four-quarter averages of the RMSE, MAE and R2 of MVMO-LSTM are improved by 0.1147–0.7989 KW, 0.09799–0.6937 KW, and 1.00–13.05%, respectively. The experimental results show that the MVMO-LSTM proposed in this paper not only solves the shortcomings of the DBO but also enhances the stability, global optimization capability and information utilization of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the continuous advancement of sensing technology, applying large amounts of sensor data to practical prediction processes using artificial intelligence methods has become a developmental direction. In sensing images and remote sensing meteorological data, the dynamic changes in the prediction targets relative to their background information often exhibit more significant dynamic characteristics. Previous prediction methods did not specifically analyze and study the dynamic change information of prediction targets at spatiotemporal multi-scale. Therefore, this paper proposes a neural prediction network based on perceptual multi-scale spatiotemporal dynamic changes (PMSTD-Net). By designing Multi-Scale Space Motion Change Attention Unit (MCAU) to perceive the local situation and spatial displacement dynamic features of prediction targets at different scales, attention is ensured on capturing the dynamic information in their spatial dimensions adequately. On this basis, this paper proposes Multi-Scale Spatiotemporal Evolution Attention (MSEA) unit, which further integrates the spatial change features perceived by MCAU units in higher channel dimensions, and learns the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics at different scales, effectively predicting the dynamic characteristics and regularities of targets in sensor information.Through experiments on spatiotemporal prediction standard datasets such as Moving MNIST, video prediction dataset KTH, and Human3.6m, PMSTD-Net demonstrates prediction performance surpassing previous methods. We construct the GPM satellite remote sensing precipitation dataset, demonstrating the network's advantages in perceiving multi-scale spatiotemporal dynamic changes in remote sensing meteorological data. Finally, through extensive ablation experiments, the performance of each module in PMSTD-Net is thoroughly validated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses Keynes's 1930 prediction that technical advances would cut people's working week to 15 h by 2030 and investigates why actual working hours are significantly higher in the United States. Elaborating on Keynes's forecast to provide a general productivity formula while keeping its simplicity, we ran tests on macro-data from 1929 to 2019 and on estimates for 2030, demonstrating that productivity is surprisingly still insufficient to allow for a reduction in working hours across the US economy. This finding represents a substantial contribution to the literature, which has mostly explained long working hours by means of new consumer needs. Even by using microdata, we show that consumption does not explain the stickiness of working hours to the bottom. Hence, this paper combines a macroeconomic, logical-analytical approach based on historical time series with rigorously constructed time series at the microeconomic level. Finally, we also provide policies to narrow the productivity differential to Keynes's prediction for 2030 while fostering work-life balance and sustainable growth. To understand long working hours in the US despite technical advances—this being one of our main findings—productivity remains crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring the condition of rotating machinery is critical in aerospace applications like aircraft engines and helicopter rotors. Faults in these components can lead to catastrophic outcomes, making early detection essential. This paper proposes a novel approach using vibration signals and time series prediction methods for fault detection in rotating aerospace machinery. By extracting relevant features from vibration signals and using prediction models, fault severity can be effectively quantified. Our experimental results show that the proposed method has potential in early fault detection and is applicable to various types of bearing faults and the different statuses of these faults under complex running conditions, achieving very good generalization ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) plays an important role in maintaining the safe and stable operation of Lithium-ion battery management systems. Aiming at the problem of poor prediction stability of a single model, this paper combines the advantages of data-driven and model-based methods and proposes a RUL prediction method combining convolutional neural network (CNN), bi-directional long and short-term memory neural network (Bi-LSTM), SE attention mechanism (AM) and adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF). First, three types of indirect features that are highly correlated with RUL decay are selected as inputs to the model to improve the accuracy of RUL prediction. Second, a CNN-BLSTM-AM network is used to further extract, select and fuse the indirect features to form predictive measurements of the identified degradation metrics. In addition, we introduce the AUKF model to increase the uncertainty representation of the RUL prediction. Finally, the method is validated on the NASA dataset and the CALCE dataset and compared with other methods. The experimental results show that the method is able to achieve an accurate estimation of RUL, a minimum RMSE of up to 0.0030, and a minimum MAE of up to 0.0024, which has high estimation accuracy and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of deep foundation pits in subway stations can affect the settlement of existing buildings adjacent to the pits to varying degrees. In this paper, the Long Short-Term Memory neural network prediction model of building settlement caused by deep foundation pit construction was established using the monitoring data of building settlement around a deep foundation pit project in a metro station in Shanghai, and appropriate hyperparameters including batch size and training set ratio were determined. The accuracy of settlement prediction for single-point and multi-point monitoring of buildings was analyzed. Meanwhile, the effects of construction parameters, engineering geological parameters, and spatial parameters on the accuracy of building settlement prediction were investigated. The results show that the batch size and training set proportion can be taken as 16 and 60%, respectively, when using the Long Short-Term Memory neural network prediction model. The proposed Long Short-Term Memory network model can stably predict the settlement of buildings adjacent to deep foundation pits. The accuracy of settlement prediction at a single point of a building (80%) is lower than the accuracy of coordinated prediction at multiple points (88%). More accurate settlement prediction is achieved with the total reverse construction method. The more detailed the consideration of working conditions, geological parameters, and spatial parameters, the better. The evaluation metrics of the prediction model, RMSE, MAE, and R2, were 0.57 mm, 0.65 mm, and 0.91, respectively. The results of this paper have some practical reference value for analyzing the settlement of buildings caused by foundation pit works. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The open-source software platform hosts a large number of software defects, and the task of relying on administrators to manually assign developers is often time consuming. Thus, it is crucial to determine how to assign software defects to appropriate developers. This paper presents DARIP, a method for assigning developers to address software defects. First, the correlation between software defects and issues is considered, predicting related issues for each defect and comprehensively calculating the textual characteristics of the defect using the BERT model. Second, a heterogeneous collaborative network is constructed based on the three development behaviors of developers: reporting, commenting, and fixing. The meta-paths are defined based on the four collaborative relationships between developers: report–comment, report–fix, comment–comment, and comment–fix. The graph-embedding algorithm metapath2vec extracts developer characteristics from the heterogeneous collaborative network. Then, a classifier based on a deep learning model calculates the probability assigned to each developer category. Finally, the assignment list is obtained according to the probability ranking. Experiments on a dataset of 20,280 defects from 9 popular projects show that the DARIP method improves the average of the Recall@5, the Recall@10, and the MRR by 31.13%, 21.40%, and 25.45%, respectively, compared to the state-of-the-art method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (Argo) program provides valuable data for maritime research and rescue operations. This paper is based on Argo historical and satellite observations, and inverted sea surface and submarine drift trajectories. A neural network method was developed to predict the position of Argo buoys, improving target tracking and emergency support capabilities. Based on a deep learning framework using a Simple Recurrent Unit (SRU), a new Time–Space Feature Fusion Method based on an Attention Mechanism (TSFFAM) model was constructed. The TSFFAM mechanism can predict the target trajectory more accurately, avoiding the disadvantages of traditional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, which are time consuming and difficult to train. The TSFFAM model is able to better capture multi-scale ocean factors, leading to more accurate and efficient buoy trajectory predictions. In addition, it aims to shed light on the mechanism of the joint multi-element and multi-scale effects of laminar and surface currents on multi-scale ocean factors, thereby deepening our understanding of the multi-element and multi-scale interactions in different spatio-temporal regimes of the ocean. Experimental verification was conducted in the Pacific Ocean using buoy trajectory data, and the experimental results showed that the buoy trajectory prediction models proposed in this paper can achieve high prediction accuracy, with the TSFFAM model improving the accuracy rate by approximately 20%. This research holds significant practical value for the field of maritime studies, precise rescue operations, and efficient target tracking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to provide discernment toward establishing a general framework, dedicated to data analysis and forecasting in smart buildings. It constitutes an industrial return of experience from an industrialist specializing in IoT supported by the academic world. With the necessary improvement of energy efficiency, discernment is paramount for facility managers to optimize daily operations and prioritize renovation work in the building sector. With the scale of buildings and the complexity of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, the use of artificial intelligence is deemed the cheapest tool, holding the highest potential, even if it requires IoT sensors and a deluge of data to establish genuine models. However, the wide variety of buildings, users, and data hinders the development of industrial solutions, as specific studies often lack relevance to analyze other buildings, possibly with different types of data monitored. The relevance of the modeling can also disappear over time, as buildings are dynamic systems evolving with their use. In this paper, we propose to study the forecasting ability of the widely used Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network algorithm, which is well-designed for time series modeling, across an instrumented building. In this way, we considered the consistency of the performances for several issues as we compared to the cases with no prediction, which is lacking in the literature. The insight provided let us examine the quality of AI models and the quality of data needed in forecasting tasks. Finally, we deduced that efficient models and smart choices about data allow meaningful insight into developing time series modeling frameworks for smart buildings. For reproducibility concerns, we also provide our raw data, which came from one "real" smart building, as well as significant information regarding this building. In summary, our research aims to develop a methodology for exploring, analyzing, and modeling data from the smart buildings sector. Based on our experiment on forecasting temperature sensor measurements, we found that a bigger AI model (1) does not always imply a longer time in training and (2) can have little impact on accuracy and (3) using more features is tied to data processing order. We also observed that providing more data is irrelevant without a deep understanding of the problem physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Feature selection has perennially stood as a pivotal concern in the realm of time-series forecasting due to its direct influence on the efficacy of predictive models. Conventional approaches to feature selection predominantly rely on domain knowledge and experiential insights and are, therefore, susceptible to individual subjectivity and the resultant inconsistencies in the outcomes. Particularly in domains such as financial markets, and within datasets comprising time-series information, an abundance of features adds complexity, necessitating adept handling of high-dimensional data. The computational expenses associated with traditional methodologies in managing such data dimensions, coupled with vulnerability to the curse of dimensionality, further compound the challenges at hand. In response to these challenges, this paper advocates for an innovative approach—a feature selection method grounded in ensemble learning. The paper explicitly delineates the formal integration of ensemble learning into feature selection, guided by the overarching principle of "good but different". To operationalize this concept, five feature selection methods that are well suited to ensemble learning were identified, and their respective weights were determined through K-fold cross-validation when applied to specific datasets. This ensemble method amalgamates the outcomes of diverse feature selection techniques into a numeric composite, thereby mitigating potential biases inherent in traditional methods and elevating the precision and comprehensiveness of feature selection. Consequently, this method improves the performance of time-series prediction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar forecasting is becoming increasingly important due to the exponential growth in total global solar capacity each year. More photovoltaic (PV) penetration in the grid poses problems for grid stability due to the inherent intermittent and variable nature of PV power production. Therefore, forecasting of solar quantities becomes increasingly important to grid operators and market participants. This review presents the most recent relevant studies focusing on short-term forecasting of solar irradiance and PV power production. Recent research has increasingly turned to machine learning to address this challenge. The paper provides a discussion about building a solar forecasting model, including evaluation measures and machine learning method selection through analysed literature. Given that machine learning is data-driven, the focus of this review has been placed on data sources referenced in the literature. Open-access data sources have been compiled and explored. The main contribution of this paper is the establishment of a benchmark for assessing the performance of solar forecasting models. This benchmark utilizes the mentioned open-source datasets, offering a standardized platform for future research. It serves the crucial purpose of streamlining investigations and facilitating direct comparisons among different forecasting methodologies in the field of solar forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Featured Application: With the continuous development of the software industry, software is gradually becoming more inclined towards containerized deployment. This paper provides a prediction algorithm based on deep learning to monitor and record the resource usage of the machine and predict future resource usage so that the server can sense the future traffic load in advance and realize automatic scaling. In this paper, a deep learning-based prediction model VMD-GLRT is proposed to address the accuracy problem of service load prediction. The VMD-GLRT model combines Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and GRU-LSTM. At the same time, the model incorporates residual networks and self-attentive mechanisms to improve accuracy of the model. The VMD part decomposes the original time series into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual part. The other part uses a GRU-LSTM structure with ResNets and Self-Attention to learn the features of the IMF and the residual part. The model-building process focuses on three main aspects: Firstly, a mathematical model is constructed based on the data characteristics of the service workload. At the same time, VMD is used to decompose the input time series into multiple components to improve the efficiency of the model in extracting features from the data. Secondly, a long and short-term memory (LSTM) network unit is incorporated into the residual network, allowing the network to correct the predictions more accurately and improve the performance of the model. Finally, a self-focus mechanism is incorporated into the model, allowing the model to better capture features over long distances. This improves the dependence of the output vector on these features. To validate the performance of the model, experiences were conducted using open-source datasets. The experimental results were compared with other deep learning and statistical models, and it was found that the model proposed in this paper achieved improvements in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The worldwide appeal has increased for the development of new technologies that allow the use of green energy. In this category, photovoltaic energy (PV) stands out, especially with regard to the presentation of forecasting methods of solar irradiance or solar power from photovoltaic generators. The development of battery energy storage systems (BESSs) has been investigated to overcome difficulties in electric grid operation, such as using energy in the peaks of load or economic dispatch. These technologies are often applied in the sense that solar irradiance is used to charge the battery. We present a review of solar forecasting methods used together with a PV-BESS. Despite the hundreds of papers investigating solar irradiation forecasting, only a few present discussions on its use on the PV-BESS set. Therefore, we evaluated 49 papers from scientific databases published over the last six years. We performed a quantitative analysis and reported important aspects found in the papers, such as the error metrics addressed, granularity, and where the data are obtained from. We also describe applications of the BESS, present a critical analysis of the current perspectives, and point out promising future research directions on forecasting approaches in conjunction with PV-BESS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ChatGPT, a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM), is revolutionizing the AI field by exhibiting humanlike skills in a range of tasks that include understanding and answering natural language questions, translating languages, writing code, passing professional exams, and even composing poetry, among its other abilities. ChatGPT has gained an immense popularity since its launch, amassing 100 million active monthly users in just two months, thereby establishing itself as the fastest-growing consumer application to date. This paper discusses the reasons for its success as well as the future prospects of similar large language models (LLMs), with an emphasis on their potential impact on forecasting, a specialized and domain-specific field. This is achieved by first comparing the correctness of the answers of the standard ChatGPT and a custom one, trained using published papers from a subfield of forecasting where the answers to the questions asked are known, allowing us to determine their correctness compared to those of the two ChatGPT versions. Then, we also compare the responses of the two versions on how judgmental adjustments to the statistical/ML forecasts should be applied by firms to improve their accuracy. The paper concludes by considering the future of LLMs and their impact on all aspects of our life and work, as well as on the field of forecasting specifically. Finally, the conclusion section is generated by ChatGPT, which was provided with a condensed version of this paper and asked to write a four-paragraph conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time series data analysis and forecasting have recently received considerable attention, supporting new technology development trends for predicting load fluctuations or uncertainty conditions in many domains. In particular, when the load is small, such as a building, the effect of load fluctuation on the total load is relatively large compared to the power system, except for specific factors, and the amount is very difficult to quantify. Recently, accurate power consumption prediction has become an important issue in the Internet of Things (IoT) environment. In this paper, a traditional time series prediction method was applied and a new model and scientific approach were used for power prediction in IoT and big data environments. To this end, to obtain data used in real life, the power consumption of commercial refrigerators was continuously collected at 15 min intervals, and prediction results were obtained by applying time series prediction methods (e.g., RNN, LSTM, and GRU). At this time, the seasonality and periodicity of electricity use were also analyzed. In this paper, we propose a method to improve the performance of the model by classifying power consumption into three classes: weekday, Saturday, and Sunday. Finally, we propose a method for predicting power consumption using a new type of ensemble model combined with three time series methods. Experimental results confirmed the accuracy of RNN (i.e., 96.1%), LSTM (i.e., 96.9%), and GRU (i.e., 96.4%). In addition, it was confirmed that the ensemble model combining the three time series models showed 98.43% accuracy in predicting power consumption. Through these experiments and approaches, scientific achievements for time series data analysis through real data were accomplished, which provided an opportunity to once again identify the need for continuous real-time power consumption monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An unreasonable allocation of resources has led to a low rate of output in the industry–university–research collaboration network. A solution to this problem is to control and predict the input and output. However, the network has the characteristics of strong nonlinearity and insufficient samples. It is difficult for the existing control methods to migrate to collaboration networks because the traditional control methods, including Proportional–Integral–Derivative (PID) control and Model Predictive Control (MPC), are usually not applied to the system with strong nonlinearity and the controlled system needs to have specific parameters, while the modern control methods, including feedforward control and feedback control, have their limitations in both parameters and other aspects. In addition, there is a lack of research on the control and output prediction of collaboration networks, and there is no effective and applicable scheme for the control and prediction. Considering the nonlinearity and insufficient samples of the collaboration network, a Feedforward Control–Feedback Control Model based on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (FCFCM-MLP) is proposed in this paper. Adopting the controller structure of the Grid Search-Multilayer Perceptron (GS-MLP), a control block diagram, a feedforward controller, a feedback controller, and prediction methods such as Harris Hawk Optimization-Support Vector Regression (HHO-SVR) are designed for the FCFCM-MLP, which effectively realizes the feedforward control, feedback control, and prediction of inputs and outputs. In this paper, simulation tests on output-feedback tracking control are conducted with real statistics of papers jointly produced by the industry–university–research collaboration network in the construction industry. The results show that the proposed model has obvious effectiveness. Specifically, compared with the model composed of other controller structures and prediction methods, the optimal model Particle Dynamic Multiple Perturbation_Butterfly Optimization Algorithm-Support Vector Regression_Grid Search-Multi-Layer Perceptron (PDM_BOA-SVR_GS-MLP) obtained in this paper can minimize the predictive control error and effectively improve the control accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) prediction plays an important role in scientific research, environmental protection, and other marine-related fields. However, most of the current prediction methods are not effective enough to utilize the spatial correlation of SSTs, which limits the improvement of SST prediction accuracy. Therefore, this paper first explores spatial correlation mining methods, including regular boundary division, convolutional sliding translation, and clustering neural networks. Then, spatial correlation mining through a graph convolutional neural network (GCN) is proposed, which solves the problem of the dependency on regular Euclidian space and the lack of spatial correlation around the boundary of groups for the above three methods. Based on that, this paper combines the spatial advantages of the GCN and the temporal advantages of the long short-term memory network (LSTM) and proposes a spatiotemporal fusion model (GCN-LSTM) for SST prediction. The proposed model can capture SST features in both the spatial and temporal dimensions more effectively and complete the SST prediction by spatiotemporal fusion. The experiments prove that the proposed model greatly improves the prediction accuracy and is an effective model for SST prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, accurate and efficient short-term traffic flow forecasting plays a critical role in intelligent transportation systems (ITS). However, due to the fact that traffic flow is susceptible to factors such as weather and road conditions, traffic flow data tend to exhibit dynamic uncertainty and nonlinearity, making the construction of a robust and reliable forecasting model still a challenging task. Aiming at this nonlinear and complex traffic flow forecasting problem, this paper constructs a short-term traffic flow forecasting hybrid optimization model, SSA-ELM, based on extreme learning machine by embedding the sparrow search algorithm in order to solve the above problem. Extreme learning machine has been widely used in short-term traffic flow forecasting due to its characteristics such as low computational complexity and fast learning speed. By using the sparrow search algorithm to optimize the input weight values and hidden layer deviations in the extreme learning machine, the sparrow search algorithm is utilized to search for the global optimal solution while taking into account the original characteristics of the extreme learning machine, so that the model improves stability while increasing prediction accuracy. Experimental results on the Amsterdam A10 road traffic flow dataset show that the traffic flow forecasting model proposed in this paper has higher forecasting accuracy and stability, revealing the potential of hybrid optimization models in the field of short-term traffic flow forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional method for retrieving cloud optical thickness (COT) is carried out through a Look-Up Table (LUT). Researchers must make a series of idealized assumptions and conduct extensive observations and record features in this scenario, consuming considerable resources. The emergence of deep learning effectively addresses the shortcomings of the traditional approach. In this paper, we first propose a daytime (SOZA < 70°) COT retrieval algorithm based on FY-4A AGRI. We establish and train a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model for COT retrieval, CM4CR, with the CALIPSO's COT product spatially and temporally synchronized as the ground truth. Then, a deep learning method extended from video prediction models is adopted to predict COT values based on the retrieval results obtained from CM4CR. The COT prediction model (CPM) consists of an encoder, a predictor, and a decoder. On this basis, we further incorporated a time embedding module to enhance the model's ability to learn from irregular time intervals in the input COT sequence. During the training phase, we employed Charbonnier Loss and Edge Loss to enhance the model's capability to represent COT details. Experiments indicate that our CM4CR outperforms existing COT retrieval methods, with predictions showing better performance across several metrics than other benchmark prediction models. Additionally, this paper also investigates the impact of different lengths of COT input sequences and the time intervals between adjacent frames of COT on prediction performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grain is a commodity related to the livelihood of the nation's people, and the volatility of its futures price affects risk management, investment decisions, and policy making. Therefore, it is very necessary to establish an accurate and efficient futures price prediction model. Aiming at improving the accuracy and efficiency of the prediction model, so as to support reasonable decision making, this paper proposes a Bi-DSConvLSTM-Attention model for grain futures price prediction, which is based on the combination of a bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (BiLSTM), a depthwise separable convolutional long short-term memory neural network (DSConvLSTM), and an attention mechanism. Firstly, the mutual information is used to evaluate, sort, and select the features for dimension reduction. Secondly, the lightweight depthwise separable convolution (DSConv) is introduced to replace the standard convolution (SConv) in ConvLSTM without sacrificing its performance. Then, the self-attention mechanism is adopted to improve the accuracy. Finally, taking the wheat futures price prediction as an example, the model is trained and its performance is evaluated. Under the Bi-DSConvLSTM-Attention model, the experimental results of selecting the most relevant 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 features as the inputs showed that the optimal number of features to be selected was 4. When the four best features were selected as the inputs, the RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R 2 of the prediction result of the Bi-DSConvLSTM-Attention model were 5.61, 3.63, 0.55, and 0.9984, respectively, which is a great improvement compared with the existing price-prediction models. Other experimental results demonstrated that the model also possesses a certain degree of generalization and is capable of obtaining positive returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issues of the evaluation and prediction of the reliability and testability of mining machinery and equipment are becoming particularly relevant, since the safety of technological processes and human life is reaching a new level of realisation due to changes in mining technology. The work is devoted to the development of a logical model for analysing the controllability of mining equipment. The paper presents a model of reliability of the operation of mining equipment on the example of a mine load and passenger hoist. This generalised model is made in the form of a graph of transitions and supplemented with a system of equations. The model allows for the estimation of the reliability of equipment elements and equipment as a whole. A mathematical and logical model for the calculation of the availability and downtime coefficients of various designs of mining equipment systems is proposed. This model became the basis for the methods to calculate the optimal values of diagnostic depth. At these calculated values, the maximum value of availability factor will be obtained. In this paper, an analytical study was carried out and dependences of the readiness factor of parameters of the investigated system such as the intensity of control of technical systems, intensity of failures, etc., were constructed. The paper proposes a mathematical model to assess the reliability of mine hoisting plants through its integration into the method of improving the reliability of mine hoisting plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tool wear prediction is of great significance in industrial production. Current tool wear prediction methods mainly rely on the indirect estimation of machine learning, which focuses more on estimating the current tool wear state and lacks effective quantification of random uncertainty factors. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper proposes a novel method for predicting cutting tool wear. In the offline phase, the multiple degradation features were modeled using the Brownian motion stochastic process and a SVR model was trained for mapping the features and the tool wear values. In the online phase, the Bayesian inference was used to update the random parameters of the feature degradation model, and the future trend of the features was estimated using simulation samples. The estimation results were input into the SVR model to achieve in-advance prediction of the cutting tool wear in the form of distribution densities. An experimental tool wear dataset was used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results demonstrate that the method shows superiority in prediction accuracy and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pandemics can result in large morbidity and mortality rates that can cause significant adverse effects on the social and economic situations of communities. Monitoring and predicting the spread of pandemics helps the concerned authorities manage the required resources, formulate preventive measures, and control the spread effectively. In the specific case of COVID-19, the UAE (United Arab Emirates) has undertaken many initiatives, such as surveillance and contact tracing by introducing mobile apps such as Al Hosn, containment of spread by limiting the gathering of people, online schooling and remote work, sanitation drives, and closure of public places. The aim of this paper is to predict the trends occurring in pandemic outbreak, with COVID-19 in the UAE being a specific case study to investigate. In this paper, a predictive modeling approach is proposed to predict the future number of cases based on the recorded history, taking into consideration the enforced policies and provided vaccinations. Machine learning models such as LASSO Regression and Exponential Smoothing, and deep learning models such as LSTM, LSTM-AE, and bi-directional LSTM-AE, are utilized. The dataset used is publicly available from the UAE government, Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (FCSC) and consists of several attributes, such as the numbers of confirmed cases, recovered cases, deaths, tests, and vaccinations. An additional categorical attribute is manually added to the dataset describing whether an event has taken place, such as a national holiday or a sanitization drive, to study the effect of such events on the pandemic trends. Experimental results showed that the Univariate LSTM model with an input of a five-day history of Confirmed Cases achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 275.85, surpassing the current state of the art related to the UAE by over 30%. It was also found that the bi-directional LSTMs performed relatively well. The approach proposed in the paper can be applied to monitor similar infectious disease outbreaks and thus contribute to strengthening the authorities' preparedness for future pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the demand for electricity, electrification, and renewable energy rises, accurate forecasting and flexible energy management become imperative. Distribution network operators face capacity limits set by regional grids, risking economic penalties if exceeded. This study examined data-driven approaches of load forecasting to address these challenges on a city scale through a use case study of Eskilstuna, Sweden. Multiple Linear Regression was used to model electric load data, identifying key calendar and meteorological variables through a rolling origin validation process, using three years of historical data. Despite its low cost, Multiple Linear Regression outperforms the more expensive non-linear Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and both outperform the "weekly Naïve" benchmark with a relative Root Mean Square Errors of 32–34% and 39–40%, respectively. Best-practice hyperparameter settings were derived, and they emphasize frequent re-training, maximizing the training data size, and setting a lag size larger than or equal to the forecast horizon for improved accuracy. Combining both models into an ensemble could the enhance accuracy. This paper demonstrates that robust load forecasts can be achieved by leveraging domain knowledge and statistical analysis, utilizing readily available machine learning libraries. The methodology for achieving this is presented within the paper. These models have the potential for economic optimization and load-shifting strategies, offering valuable insights into sustainable energy management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate prediction of heavy precipitation in convective environments is crucial because such events, often occurring in Italy during the summer and fall seasons, can be a threat for people and properties. In this paper, we analyse the impact of satellite-derived surface-rainfall-rate data assimilation on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's precipitation prediction, considering 15 days in summer 2022 and 17 days in fall 2022, where moderate to intense precipitation was observed over Italy. A 3DVar realised at CNR-ISAC (National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate) is used to assimilate two different satellite-derived rain rate products, both exploiting geostationary (GEO), infrared (IR), and low-Earth-orbit (LEO) microwave (MW) measurements: One is based on an artificial neural network (NN), and the other one is the operational P-IN-SEVIRI-PMW product (H60), delivered in near-real time by the EUMETSAT HSAF (Satellite Application Facility in Support of Operational Hydrology and Water Management). The forecast is verified in two periods: the hours from 1 to 4 (1–4 h phase) and the hours from 3 to 6 (3–6 h phase) after the assimilation. The results show that the rain rate assimilation improves the precipitation forecast in both seasons and for both forecast phases, even if the improvement in the 3–6 h phase is found mainly in summer. The assimilation of H60 produces a high number of false alarms, which has a negative impact on the forecast, especially for intense events (30 mm/3 h). The assimilation of the NN rain rate gives more balanced predictions, improving the control forecast without significantly increasing false alarms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The layout and configuration of urban infrastructure are essential for the orderly operation and healthy development of cities. With the promotion and popularization of new energy vehicles, the modeling and prediction of charging pile usage and allocation have garnered significant attention from governments and enterprises. Short-term demand forecasting for charging piles is crucial for their efficient operation. However, existing prediction models lack a discussion on the appropriate time window, resulting in limitations in station-level predictions. Recognizing the temporal nature of charging pile occupancy, this paper proposes a novel stacked-LSTM model called attention-SLSTM that integrates an attention mechanism to predict the charging demand of electric vehicles at the station level over the next few hours. To evaluate its performance, this paper compares it with several methods. The experimental results demonstrate that the attention-SLSTM model outperforms both LSTM and stacked-LSTM models. Deep learning methods generally outperform traditional time series forecasting methods. In the test set, MAE is 1.6860, RMSE is 2.5040, and MAPE is 9.7680%. Compared to the stacked-LSTM model, MAE and RMSE are reduced by 4.7%and 5%, respectively; while MAPE value decreases by 1.3%, making it superior to LSTM overall. Furthermore, subsequent experiments compare prediction performance among different charging stations, which confirms that the attention-SLSTM model exhibits excellent predictive capabilities within a six-step (2 h) window. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of electric vehicles (EVs) in Chinese cities, accurately forecasting the number of EVs used by urban residents in the next five years and more long term is beneficial for the government to adjust industrial policies of EVs, guide the rational planning of urban charging facilities and supporting distribution network, and achieve the rational and orderly development of the EV industry. The paper considers the advantages of using the grey GM(1,1) prediction model to predict the short-term ownership of EVs by urban residents. Then, by forecasting the number of EV users in a certain city in the future and predicting the number of private vehicles in the future, the boundary conditions for long-term year ownership of EVs by residents are determined. Combined with historical data and short-term forecast data generated by the grey prediction model, the model parameters that include the innovation coefficient and imitation coefficient of the Bass model are trained using a genetic algorithm. Finally, the Bass model is used for medium- to long-term ownership forecasting from 2023 to 2040. The prediction error for the target year is provided. The simulation results indicate that the ownership of resident EVs in this city will experience rapid growth in the next five years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Underwater acoustic (UWA) channel prediction technology, as an important topic in UWA communication, has played an important role in UWA adaptive communication network and underwater target perception. Although many significant advancements have been achieved in underwater acoustic channel prediction over the years, a comprehensive summary and introduction is still lacking. As the first comprehensive overview of UWA channel prediction, this paper introduces past works and algorithm implementation methods of channel prediction from the perspective of linear, kernel-based, and deep learning approaches. Importantly, based on available at-sea experiment datasets, this paper compares the performance of current primary UWA channel prediction algorithms under a unified system framework, providing researchers with a comprehensive and objective understanding of UWA channel prediction. Finally, it discusses the directions and challenges for future research. The survey finds that linear prediction algorithms are the most widely applied, and deep learning, as the most advanced type of algorithm, has moved this field into a new stage. The experimental results show that the linear algorithms have the lowest computational complexity, and when the training samples are sufficient, deep learning algorithms have the best prediction performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting hydro–meteorological changes in a marine area, i.e., in large bodies of water, from open water to coastal zones. First, hydro–meteorological factors, their interactions, and their implications for marine ecosystems are described. In addition, an analysis is outlined specifically for the Baltic Sea area. Next, the procedure for forecasting expected changes in major hydro–meteorological parameters in the sea is presented and a series of steps is accurately described. An extensive prognosis is provided for the southern Baltic Sea region using historical data obtained from the Polish National Institute of Water Management and Meteorology. The procedure is applied for seven measurement points which were assigned to four sub-areas for examining trends in wind regimes and wave height patterns using the authors' own written software and statistical methods for data analysis. The model was validated within the southern Baltic Sea region. This paper also highlights the significance of forecasting for human beings, the environment, and critical infrastructure by proposing adaptive strategies and integrated coastal zone management in mitigating risks and enhancing resilience. Finally, future directions for research are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traffic flow prediction is essential for smart city management and planning, aiding in optimizing traffic scheduling and improving overall traffic conditions. However, due to the correlation and heterogeneity of traffic data, effectively integrating the captured temporal and spatial features remains a significant challenge. This paper proposes a model spatial–temporal fusion gated transformer network (STFGTN), which is based on an attention mechanism that integrates temporal and spatial features. This paper proposes an attention mechanism-based model to address these issues and model complex spatial–temporal dependencies in road networks. The self-attention mechanism enables the model to achieve long-term dependency modeling and global representation of time series data. Regarding temporal features, we incorporate a time embedding layer and a time transformer to learn temporal dependencies. This capability contributes to a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of spatial–temporal dynamic patterns throughout the entire time series. As for spatial features, we utilize DGCN and spatial transformers to capture both global and local spatial dependencies, respectively. Additionally, we propose two fusion gate mechanisms to effectively accommodate to the complex correlation and heterogeneity of spatial–temporal information, resulting in a more accurate reflection of the actual traffic flow. Our experiments on three real-world datasets illustrate the superior performance of our approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]