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Environmental changes threaten agricultural production, food security, and health. Previous reviews suggest that environmental changes will substantially affect future yields of starchy dietary staples. To date, no comprehensive global analysis of the impacts of environmental change on (nonstaple) vegetables and legumes--important constituents of healthy diets--has been reported. We systematically searched for articles published between 1975 and 2016 on the effects of ambient temperature, tropospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and ozone (O3) concentrations, water availability, and salinization on yields and nutritional quality of vegetables and legumes. We estimated mean effects of standardized environmental changes using observed exposure-response relationships and conducted meta-analyses where possible. We identified 174 relevant papers reporting 1,540 experiments. The mean (95% CI) reported yield changes for all vegetables and legumes combined were +22.0% (+11.6% to +32.5%) for a 250-ppm increase in CO2 concentration, -8.9% (-15.6% to -2.2%) for a 25% increase in O3 concentration,-34.7% (-44.6% to -24.9%) for a 50% reduction in water availability, and -2.3% (-3.7% to -0.9%) for a 25% increase in salinity. In papers with baseline temperatures >20 °C, a 4 °C increase in temperature reduced mean yields by -31.5% (-41.4% to -21.5%). Impacts of environmental changes on nutritional quality were mixed. In a business-as-usual scenario, predicted changes in environmental exposures would lead to reductions in yields of nonstaple vegetables and legumes. Where adaptation possibilities are limited, this may substantially change their global availability, affordability, and consumption in the mid to long term. Our results stress the importance of prioritizing agricultural developments, to minimize potential reductions in vegetable and legume yields and associated negative health effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With rapid economic growth and urbanization, self-sufficiency in crop production has become central to China's agriculture policy. Accurate crop production statistics are essential for research, monitoring, and planning. Although researchers agree that China's statistical authority has considerably modernized over time, China's economic statistics have still been viewed as unreliable and often overstated to meet growth targets at different administrative levels. Recent increases in crop production reported by national statistics have also come under increasing scrutiny. This paper investigates crop production data quality from a planetary boundary perspective--comparing net primary production (NPP) harvested obtained from national statistics with satellite-driven NPP estimates that are supported by detailed observation of land cover, combined with observations on physical factors that limit plant growth. This approach provides a powerful means to check the plausibility of China's grain production statistics at different administrative levels that can generate insights about their discrepancies and can contribute to improved crop production measurements. We find some evidence of potential misreporting problems from the lower administration level where the risk of manipulation of statistics is higher. We also find problems from provincial-level major grain producers. These values can also affect the national totals. Although the numbers are affected by large uncertainties, we find that improving the spatial resolution of key agricultural parameters can greatly improve the reliability of the indicator that in turn can help improve data quality. More reliable production data will be vital for relevant research and provide better insights into food security problems, the carbon cycle, and sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global demand for palm oil has grown rapidly over the past several decades. Much of the output expansion has occurred in carbon- and biodiversity-rich forest lands of Malaysia and Indonesia (M&I), contributing to record levels of terrestrial carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. This has led to a variety of voluntary and mandatory regulatory actions, as well as calls for limits on palm oil imports from M&I. This paper offers a comprehensive, global assessment of the economic and environmental consequences of alternative policies aimed at limiting deforestation from oil palm expansion in M&I. It highlights the challenges of limiting forest and biodiversity loss in the presence of marketmediated spillovers into related oilseed and agricultural commodity and factor markets, both in M&I and overseas. Indeed, limiting palm oil production or consumption is unlikely to halt deforestation in M&I in the absence of active forest conservation incentives. Policies aimed at restricting palm oil production in M&I also have broader consequences for the economy, including significant impacts on consumer prices, real wages, and welfare, that vary among different global regions. A crucial distinction is whether the initiative is undertaken domestically, in which case the M&I region could benefit, or by major palm oil importers, in which case M&I loses income. Nonetheless, all policies considered here pass the social welfare test of global carbon dioxide mitigation benefits exceeding their costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural expansion remains the most prominent proximate cause of tropical deforestation in Latin America, a region characterized by deforestation rates substantially above the world average and extremely high inequality. This paper deploys several multivariate statistical models to test whether different aspects of inequality, within a context of increasing agricultural productivity, promote agricultural expansion (Jevons paradox) or contraction (land-sparing) in 10 Latin American countries over 1990-2010. Here I show the existence of distinct patterns between the instantaneous and the overall (i.e., accounting for temporal lags) effect of increasing agricultural productivity, conditional on the degree of income, land, and wealth inequality. In a context of perfect equality, the instantaneous effect of increases in agricultural productivity is to promote agricultural expansion (Jevons paradox). When temporal lags are accounted for, agricultural productivity appears to be mainly land-sparing. Increases in the level of inequality, in all its forms, promote agricultural expansion, thus eroding the land-sparing effects of increasing productivity. The results also suggest that the instantaneous impact of inequality is larger than the overall effect (accounting for temporal lags) and that the effects of income inequality are stronger than those of land and wealth inequality, respectively. Reaping the benefits of increasing agricultural productivity, and achieving sustainable agricultural intensification in Latin America, requires policy interventions that specifically address inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m². The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices showthe greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After 500 y of colonizing the forest-steppe area northwest of the Black Sea, on the territories of what is today Moldova and Ukraine, Trypillia societies founded large, aggregated settlements from ca. 4150 BCE and mega-sites (>100 ha) from ca. 3950 BCE. Covering up to 320 ha and housing up to 15,000 inhabitants, the latter were the world's largest settlements to date. Some 480 δ13C and δ15N measurements on bones of humans, animals, and charred crops allow the detection of spatio-temporal patterns and the calculation of complete agricultural Bayesian food webs for Trypillia societies. The isotope data come from settlements of the entire Trypillia area between the Prut and the Dnieper rivers. The datasets cover the development of the Trypillia societies from the early phase (4800-4200/4100 BCE), over the agglomeration of mega-sites (4200/4100-3650 BCE), to the dispersal phase (3650-3000 BCE). High δ15N values mostly come from the mega-sites. Our analyses show that the subsistence of Trypillia mega-sites depended on pulses cultivated on strongly manured (dung-)soils and on cattle that were kept fenced on intensive pastures to easy collect the manure for pulse cultivation. The food web models indicate a low proportion of meat in human diet (approximately 10%). The largely crop-based diet, consisting of cereals plus up to 46% pulses, was balanced in calories and indispensable amino acids. The flourishing of Europe's first mega-populations depended on an advanced, integral mega-economy that included sophisticated dung management. Their demise was therefore not economically, but socially, conditioned [Hofmann et al., PLoS One. 14, e0222243 (2019)]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last several decades, Brazil has become both the world's leading soy producer and the world's leading consumer of hazardous pesticides. Despite identified links between pesticide exposure and carcinogenesis, there has been little populationlevel research on the effects of pesticide intensification on broader human health in Brazil. We estimate the relationship between expanded soy production--and related community exposure to pesticides--on childhood cancer incidence using 15 y of data on disease mortality. We find a statistically significant increase in pediatric leukemia following expanded local soy production, but timely access to treatment mitigates this relationship. We show that pesticide exposure likely occurs via water supply penetration. Our findings represent only the tip of the iceberg for substantial health externalities of high-input crop production and land use change. Our results are of particular interest in developing contexts with demand for intensified food production systems and underscore the need for stronger regulation of pesticides and increased public health attention to exposure in the broader community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfac-tual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global food security requires eco-efficient agriculture to produce the required food and fiber products concomitant with ecologically efficient use of resources. This eco-efficiency concept is used to diagnose the state of agricultural production in China (irrigated wheat-maize double-cropping systems), Zimbabwe (rainfed maize systems), and Australia (rainfed wheat systems). More than 3,000 surveyed crop yields in these three countries were compared against simulated grain yields at farmer-specified levels of nitrogen (N) input. Many Australian commercial wheat farmers are both close to existing production frontiers and gain little prospective return from increasing their N input. Significant losses of N from their systems, either as nitrous oxide emissions or as nitrate leached from the soil profile, are infrequent and at low intensities relative to their level of grain production. These Australian farmers operate close to eco-efficient frontiers in regard to N, and so innovations in technologies and practices are essential to increasing their production without added economic or environmental risks. In contrast, many Chinese farmers can reduce N input without sacrificing production through more efficient use of their fertilizer input. In fact, there are real prospects for the double-cropping systems on the North China Plain to achieve both production increases and reduced environmental risks. Zimbabwean farmers have the opportunity for significant production increases by both improving their technical efficiency and increasing their level of input; however, doing so will require improved management expertise and greater access to institutional support for addressing the higher risks. This paper shows that pathways for achieving improved eco-efficiency will differ among diverse cropping systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent excavations of Late Antiquity settlements in the Negev Highlands of southern Israel uncovered a society that established commercial-scale viticulture in an arid environment [D. Fuks et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 117, 19780-19791 (2020)]. We applied target-enriched genome-wide sequencing and radiocarbon dating to examine grapevine pips that were excavated at three of these sites. Our analyses revealed centuries long and continuous grape cultivation in the Southern Levant. The genetically diverse pips also provided clues to ancient cultivation strategies aimed at improving agricultural productivity and ensuring food security. Applying genomic prediction analysis, a pip dated to the eighth century CE was determined to likely be from a white grape, to date the oldest to be identified. In a kinship analysis, another pip was found to be descendant from a modern Greek cultivar and was thus linked with several popular historic wines that were once traded across the Byzantine Empire. These findings shed light on historical Byzantine trading networks and on the genetic contribution of Levantine varieties to the classic Aegean landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent study by Feng et al. [Feng S, Krueger A, Oppenheimer M (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sei USA 107:14257-14262] in PNAS reported statistical evidence of a weather-driven causal effect of crop yields on human migration from Mexico to the United States. We show that this conclusion is based on a different statistical model than the one stated in the paper. When we correct for this mistake, there is no evidence of a causal link. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A letter to the editor is presented in response to the article "Winter teleconnections can predict the ensuing summer European crop productivity" by A. Gonsamo and J. M. Chen in the 2015 issue.

Europe has experienced a stagnation of some crop yields since the early 1990s as well as statistically significant warming during the growing season. Although it has been argued that these two are causally connected, no previous studies have formally attributed long-term yield trends to a changing climate. Here, we present two statistical tests based on the distinctive spatial pattern of climate change impacts and adaptation, and explore their power under a range of parameter values. We show that statistical power for the identification of climate change impacts is high in many settings, but that power for identifying adaptation is almost always low. Applying these tests to European agriculture, we find evidence that long-term temperature and precipitation trends since 1989 have reduced continent-wide wheat and barley yields by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively, and have slightly increased maize and sugar beet yields. These averages disguise large heterogeneity across the continent, with regions around the Mediterranean experiencing significant adverse impacts on most crops. This result means that climate trends can account for ~10% of the stagnation in European wheat and barley yields, with likely explanations for the remainder including changes in agriculture and environmental policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity-mediated ecosystem services (ES) support human well-being, but their values are typically estimated individually. Although ES are part of complex socioecological systems, we know surprisingly little about how multiple ES interact ecologically and economically. Interactions could be positive (synergy), negative (trade-offs), or absent (additive effects), with strong implications for management and valuation. Here, we evaluate the interactions of two ES, pollination and pest control, via a factorial field experiment in 30 Costa Rican coffee farms. We found synergistic interactions between these two critical ES to crop production. The combined positive effects of birds and bees on fruit set, fruit weight, and fruit weight uniformity were greater than their individual effects. This represents experimental evidence at realistic farm scales of positive interactions among ES in agricultural systems. These synergies suggest that assessments of individual ES may underestimate the benefits biodiversity provides to agriculture and human well-being. Using our experimental results, we demonstrate that bird pest control and bee pollination services translate directly into monetary benefits to coffee farmers. Excluding both birds and bees resulted in an average yield reduction of 24.7% (equivalent to losing US$1,066.00/ha). These findings highlight that habitat enhancements to support native biodiversity can have multiple benefits for coffee, a valuable crop that supports rural livelihoods worldwide. Accounting for potential interactions among ES is essential to quantifying their combined ecological and economic value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Formate has great potential to function as a feedstock for biorefineries because it can be sustainably produced by a variety of processes that don’t compete with agricultural production. However, naturally formatotrophic organisms are unsuitable for large-scale cultivation, difficult to engineer, or have inefficient native formate assimilation pathways. Thus, metabolic engineering needs to be developed for model industrial organisms to enable efficient formatotrophic growth. Here, we build a prototype synthetic formate utilizing bacterial microcompartment (sFUT) encapsulating the oxygen-sensitive glycyl radical enzyme pyruvate formate lyase and a phosphate acyltransferase to convert formate and acetylphosphate into the central biosynthetic intermediate pyruvate. This metabolic module offers a defined environment with a private cofactor coenzyme A that can cycle efficiently between the encapsulated enzymes. To facilitate initial design-build-test-refine cycles to construct an active metabolic core, we used a “wiffleball” architecture, defined as an icosahedral bacterial microcompartment (BMC) shell with unoccupied pentameric vertices to freely permit substrate and product exchange. The resulting sFUT prototype wiffleball is an active multi enzyme synthetic BMC functioning as platform technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable land-system transformations are necessary to avert biodiversity and climate collapse. However, it remains unclear where entry points for transformations exist in complex land systems. Here, we conceptualize land systems along land-use trajectories, which allows us to identify and evaluate leverage points, i.e., entry points on the trajectory where targeted interventions have particular leverage to influence land-use decisions. We apply this framework in the biodiversity hotspot Madagascar. In the northeast, smallholder agriculture results in a land-use trajectory originating in old-growth forests and spanning from forest fragments to shifting hill rice cultivation and vanilla agroforests. Integrating interdisciplinary empirical data on seven taxa, five ecosystem services, and three measures of agricultural productivity, we assess trade-offs and cobenefits of land-use decisions at three leverage points along the trajectory. These trade-offs and cobenefits differ between leverage points: Two leverage points are situated at the conversion of old-growth forests and forest fragments to shifting cultivation and agroforestry, resulting in considerable trade-offs, especially between endemic biodiversity and agricultural productivity. Here, interventions enabling smallholders to conserve forests are necessary. This is urgent since ongoing forest loss threatens to eliminate these leverage points due to path dependency. The third leverage point allows for the restoration of land under shifting cultivation through vanilla agroforests and offers cobenefits between restoration goals and agricultural productivity. The co-occurring leverage points highlight that conservation and restoration are simultaneously necessary to avert collapse of multifunctional mosaic landscapes. Methodologically, the framework highlights the importance of considering path dependency along trajectories to achieve sustainable land-system transformations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of a plastic root system is essential for stable crop production under variable environments. Rice plants have two types of lateral roots (LRs): S-type (short and thin) and L-type (long, thick, and capable of further branching). LR types are determined at the primordium stage, with a larger primordium size in L-types than S-types. Despite the importance of LR types for rice adaptability to variable water conditions, molecular mechanisms underlying the primordium size control of LRs are unknown. Here, we show that two WUSCHEL-related homeobox (WOX) genes have opposing roles in controlling LR primordium (LRP) size in rice. Root tip excision on seminal roots induced L-type LR formation with wider primordia formed from an early developmental stage. QHB/OsWOX5 was isolated as a causative gene of a mutant that is defective in S-type LR formation but produces more L-type LRs than wild-type (WT) plants following root tip excision. A transcriptome analysis revealed that OsWOX10 is highly up-regulated in L-type LRPs. OsWOX10 overexpression in LRPs increased the LR diameter in an expression-dependent manner. Conversely, the mutation in OsWOX10 decreased the L-type LR diameter under mild drought conditions. The qhb mutants had higher OsWOX10 expression than WT after root tip excision. A yeast one-hybrid assay revealed that the transcriptional repressive activity of QHB was lost in qhb mutants. An electrophoresis mobility shift assay revealed that OsWOX10 is a potential target of QHB. These data suggest that QHB represses LR diameter increase, repressing OsWOX10. Our findings could help improve root system plasticity under variable environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduces several papers presented at the National Academy of Sciences colloquium `Plants and Population: Is There Time?' held on December 5-6, 1998. Examination of the forces that shape agricultural production; Requirements for world agriculture to continue yield increases; Potential of biotechnology; Demands of different human activities on natural resources.

Photoperiod sensitivity is a key factor in plant adaptation and crop production. In the short-day plant soybean, adaptation to low latitude environments is provided by mutations at the J locus, which confer extended flowering phase and thereby improve yield. The identity of J as an ortholog of Arabidopsis ELF3, a component of the circadian evening complex (EC), implies that orthologs of other EC components may have similar roles. Here we show that the two soybean homeologs of LUX ARRYTHMO interact with J to form a soybean EC. Characterization of mutants reveals that these genes are highly redundant in function but together are critical for flowering under short day, where the lux1 lux2 double mutant shows extremely late flowering and a massively extended flowering phase. This phenotype exceeds that of any soybean flowering mutant reported to date, and is strongly reminiscent of the "Maryland Mammoth" tobacco mutant that featured in the seminal 1920 study of plant photoperiodism by Garner and Allard [W. W. Garner, H. A. Allard, J. Agric. Res. 18, 553-606 (1920)]. We further demonstrate that the J-LUX complex suppresses transcription of the key flowering repressor E1 and its two homologs via LUX binding sites in their promoters. These results indicate that the EC-E1 interaction has a central role in soybean photoperiod sensitivity, a phenomenon also first described by Garner and Allard. EC and E1 family genes may therefore constitute key targets for customized breeding of soybean varieties with precise flowering time adaptation, either by introgression of natural variation or generation of new mutants by gene editing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil erosion in agricultural landscapes reduces crop yields, leads to loss of ecosystem services, and influences the global carbon cycle. Despite decades of soil erosion research, the magnitude of historical soil loss remains poorly quantified across large agricultural regions because preagricultural soil data are rare, and it is challenging to extrapolate local-scale erosion observations across time and space. Here we focus on the Corn Belt of the midwestern United States and use a remote-sensing method to map areas in agricultural fields that have no remaining organic carbon-rich A-horizon. We use satellite and LiDAR data to develop a relationship between A-horizon loss and topographic curvature and then use topographic data to scale-up soil loss predictions across 3.9 × 105 km² of the Corn Belt. Our results indicate that 35 ± 11% of the cultivated area has lost A-horizon soil and that prior estimates of soil degradation from soil survey-based methods have significantly underestimated A-horizon soil loss. Convex hilltops throughout the region are often completely denuded of A-horizon soil. The association between soil loss and convex topography indicates that tillage-induced erosion is an important driver of soil loss, yet tillage erosion is not simulated in models used to assess nationwide soil loss trends in the United States. We estimate that A-horizon loss decreases crop yields by 6 ± 2%, causing $2.8 ± $0.9 billion in annual economic losses. Regionally, we estimate 1.4 ± 0.5 Pg of carbon have been removed from hillslopes by erosion of the A-horizon, much of which likely remains buried in depositional areas within the fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Declining biodiversity and ecosystem functions put many of nature's contributions to people at risk. We review and synthesize the scientific literature to assess 50-y global trends across a broad range of nature's contributions. We distinguish among trends in potential and realized contributions of nature, as well as environmental conditions and the impacts of changes in nature on human quality of life. We find declining trends in the potential for nature to contribute in the majority of material, nonmaterial, and regulating contributions assessed. However, while the realized production of regulating contributions has decreased, realized production of agricultural and many material commodities has increased. Environmental declines negatively affect quality of life, but social adaptation and the availability of substitutes partially offset this decline for some of nature's contributions. Adaptation and substitutes, however, are often imperfect and come at some cost. For many of the contributions of nature, we find differing trends across different countries and regions, income classes, and ethnic and social groups, reinforcing the argument for more consistent and equitable measurement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pesticides are a ubiquitous component of conventional crop production but come with considerable economic and ecological costs. We tested the hypothesis that variation in pesticide use among crop species is a function of crop economics and the phylogenetic relationship of a crop to native plants because unrelated crops accrue fewer herbivores and pathogens. Comparative analyses of a dataset of 93 Californian crops showed that more valuable crops and crops with close relatives in the native plant flora received greater pesticide use, explaining roughly half of the variance in pesticide use among crops against pathogens and herbivores. Phylogenetic escape from arthropod and pathogen pests results in lower pesticides, suggesting that the introduced status of some crops can be leveraged to reduce pesticides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Irrigated agriculture contributes 40% of total global food production. In the US High Plains, which produces more than 50 million tons per year of grain, as much as 90% of irrigation originates from groundwater resources, including the Ogallala aquifer. In parts of the High Plains, groundwater resources are being depleted so rapidly that they are considered nonrenewable, compromising food security. When groundwater becomes scarce, groundwater withdrawals peak, causing a subsequent peak in crop production. Previous descriptions of finite natural resource depletion have utilized the Hubbert curve. By coupling the dynamics of groundwater pumping, recharge, and crop production, Hubbert-like curves emerge, responding to the linked variations in groundwater pumping and grain production. On a state level, this approach predicted when groundwater withdrawal and grain production peaked and the lag between them. The lags increased with the adoption of efficient irrigation practices and higher recharge rates. Results indicate that, in Texas, withdrawals peaked in 1966, followed by a peak in grain production 9 y later. After better irrigation technologies were adopted, the lag increased to 15 y from 1997 to 2012. In Kansas, where these technologies were employed concurrently with the rise of irrigated grain production, this lag was predicted to be 24 y starting in 1994. In Nebraska, grain production is projected to continue rising through 2050 because of high recharge rates. While Texas and Nebraska had equal irrigated output in 1975, by 2050, it is projected that Nebraska will have almost 10 times the groundwater-based production of Texas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale continuous crop monitoring systems (CMS) are key to detect and manage agricultural production anomalies. Current CMS exploit meteorological and crop growth models, and satellite imagery, but have underutilized legacy sources of information such as operational crop expert surveys with long and uninterrupted records. We argue that crop expert assessments, despite their subjective and categorical nature, capture the complexities of assessing the "status" of a crop better than any model or remote sensing retrieval. This is because crop rating data naturally encapsulates the broad expert knowledge of many individual surveyors spread throughout the country, constituting a sophisticated network of "people as sensors" that provide consistent and accurate information on crop progress. We analyze data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Progress and Condition (CPC) survey between 1987 and 2019 for four major crops across the US, and show how to transform the original qualitative data into a continuous, probabilistic variable better suited to quantitative analysis. Although the CPC reflects the subjective perception of many surveyors at different locations, the underlying models that describe the reported crop status are statistically robust and maintain similar characteristics across different crops, exhibit long-term stability, and have nation-wide validity. We discuss the origin and interpretation of existing spatial and temporal biases in the survey data. Finally, we propose a quantitative Crop Condition Index based on the CPC survey and demonstrate how this index can be used to monitor crop status and provide earlier and more precise predictions of crop yields than official USDA forecasts released midseason. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural landscape homogenization has detrimental effects on biodiversity and key ecosystem services. Increasing agricultural landscape heterogeneity by increasing seminatural cover can help to mitigate biodiversity loss. However, the amount of seminatural cover is generally low and difficult to increase in many intensively managed agricultural landscapes. We hypothesized that increasing the heterogeneity of the crop mosaic itself (hereafter "crop heterogeneity") can also have positive effects on biodiversity. In 8 contrasting regions of Europe and North America, we selected 435 landscapes along independent gradients of crop diversity and mean field size. Within each landscape, we selected 3 sampling sites in 1, 2, or 3 crop types. We sampled 7 taxa (plants, bees, butterflies, hoverflies, carabids, spiders, and birds) and calculated a synthetic index of multitrophic diversity at the landscape level. Increasing crop heterogeneity was more beneficial for multitrophic diversity than increasing seminatural cover. For instance, the effect of decreasing mean field size from 5 to 2.8 ha was as strong as the effect of increasing seminatural cover from 0.5 to 11%. Decreasing mean field size benefited multitrophic diversity even in the absence of seminatural vegetation between fields. Increasing the number of crop types sampled had a positive effect on landscape-level multitrophic diversity. However, the effect of increasing crop diversity in the landscape surrounding fields sampled depended on the amount of seminatural cover. Our study provides large-scale, multitrophic, cross-regional evidence that increasing crop heterogeneity can be an effective way to increase biodiversity in agricultural landscapes without taking land out of agricultural production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global power production increasingly relies on wind farms to supply low-carbon energy. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report predicted that renewable energy production must leap from 20% of the global energy mix in 2018 to 67% by 2050 to keep global temperatures from rising 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. This increase requires reliable, low-cost energy production. However, wind turbines are often placed in close proximity within wind farms due to land and transmission line constraints, which results in wind farm efficiency degradation of up to 40% for wind directions aligned with columns of turbines. To increase wind farm power production, we developed a wake steering control scheme. This approach maximizes the power of a wind farm through yaw misalignment that deflects wakes away from downstream turbines. Optimization was performed with site-specific analytic gradient ascent relying on historical operational data. The protocol was tested in an operational wind farm in Alberta, Canada, resulting in statistically significant (P<0.05) power increases of 7-13% for wind speeds near the site average and wind directions which occur during less than 10% of nocturnal operation and 28-47% for low wind speeds in the same wind directions. Wake steering also decreased the variability in the power production of the wind farm by up to 72%. Although the resulting gains in annual energy production were insignificant at this farm, these statistically significant wake steering results demonstrate the potential to increase the efficiency and predictability of power production through the reduction of wake losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amajor challenge in transforming development to inclusive, sustainable pathways is the pervasive and persistent trade-off between provisioning services (e.g., agricultural production) on the one hand and regulating services (e.g., water purification, flood control) and biodiversity conservation on the other. We report on an application of China's new Ecological Development Strategy, now being formally tested and refined for subsequent scaling nationwide, which aims to mitigate and even eliminate these trade-offs. Our focus is the Ecosystem Function Conservation Area of Hainan Island, a rural, tropical region where expansion of rubber plantations has driven extensive loss of natural forest and its vital benefits to people. We explored both the biophysical and the socioeconomic options for achieving simultaneous improvements in product provision, regulating services, biodiversity, and livelihoods. We quantified historic trade-offs between rubber production and vital regulating services, finding that, over the past 20 y (1998-2017), there was a 72.2% increase in rubber plantation area, leading to decreases in soil retention (17.8%), water purification [reduced retention of nitrogen (56.3%) and phosphorus (27.4%)], flood mitigation (21.9%), carbon sequestration (1.7%), and habitat for biodiversity (6.9%). Using scenario analyses, we identified a two-pronged strategy that would significantly reduce these trade-offs, enhancing regulating services and biodiversity, while simultaneously diversifying and increasing product provision and improving livelihoods. This general approach to analyzing product provision, regulating services, biodiversity, and livelihoods has applicability in rural landscapes across China, South and Southeast Asia, and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture is widely recognized as critical to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but researchers, policymakers, and practitioners have multiple, often conflicting yet poorly documented priorities on how agriculture could or should support achieving the SDGs. Here, we assess consensus and divergence in priorities for agricultural systems among research, policy, and practice perspectives and discuss the implications for research on trade-offs among competing goals. We analyzed the priorities given to 239 environmental and social drivers, management choices, and outcomes of agricultural systems from 69 research articles, the SDGs and four EU policies, and seven agricultural sustainability assessment tools aimed at farmers. We found all three perspectives recognize 32 variables as key to agricultural systems, providing a shared area of focus for agriculture's contribution to the SDGs. However, 207 variables appear in only one or two perspectives, implying that potential trade-offs may be overlooked if evaluated from only one perspective. We identified four approaches to agricultural land systems research in Europe that omit most of the variables considered important from policy and practice perspectives. We posit that the four approaches reflect prevailing paradigms of research design and data analysis and suggest future research design should consider including the 32 shared variables as a starting point for more policy- and practicerelevant research. Our identification of shared priorities from different perspectives and attention to environmental and social domains and the functional role of system components provide a concrete basis to encourage codesigned and systems-based research approaches to guide agriculture's contribution to the SDGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tracking the progress of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targeting interventions requires frequent, up-to-date data on social, economic, and ecosystem conditions. Monitoring socioeconomic targets using household survey data would require census enumeration combined with annual sample surveys on consumption and socioeconomic trends. Such surveys could cost up to $253 billion globally during the lifetime of the SDGs, almost double the global development assistance budget for 2013. We examine the role that satellite data could have in monitoring progress toward reducing poverty in rural areas by asking two questions: (i) Can household wealth be predicted from satellite data? (ii) Can a socioecologically informed multilevel treatment of the satellite data increase the ability to explain variance in household wealth? We found that satellite data explained up to 62% of the variation in household level wealth in a rural area of western Kenya when using a multilevel approach. This was a 10% increase compared with previously used single-level methods, which do not consider details of spatial landscape use. The size of buildings within a family compound (homestead), amount of bare agricultural land surrounding a homestead, amount of bare ground inside the homestead, and the length of growing season were important predictor variables. Our results show that a multilevel approach linking satellite and household data allows improved mapping of homestead characteristics, local land uses, and agricultural productivity, illustrating that satellite data can support the data revolution required for monitoring SDGs, especially those related to poverty and leaving no one behind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers' fields in most European countries after 2002-2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity "deserts" were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major challenge of the 21st century is to produce more food for a growing population without increasing humanity's agricultural footprint. Urban food production may help to solve this challenge; however, little research has examined the productivity of urban farming systems. We investigated inputs and produce yields over a 1-y period in 13 small-scale organic farms and gardens in Sydney, Australia. We found mean yields to be 5.94 kg·m-2, around twice the yield of typical Australian commercial vegetable farms. While these systems used land efficiently, economic and emergy (embodied energy) analyses showed they were relatively inefficient in their use of material and labor resources. Benefit-to-cost ratios demonstrated that, on average, the gardens ran at a financial loss and emergy transformity was one to three orders of magnitude greater than many conventional rural farms. Only 14.66% of all inputs were considered "renewable," resulting in a moderate mean environmental loading ratio (ELR) of 5.82, a value within the range of many conventional farming systems. However, when all nonrenewable inputs capable of being substituted with local renewable inputs were replaced in a hypothetical scenario, the ELR improved markedly to 1.32. These results show that urban agriculture can be highly productive; however, this productivity comes with many trade-offs, and care must be taken to ensure its sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncoupling protein 1 (UCP1) is localized on the inner mitochondrial membrane and generates heat by uncoupling ATP synthesis from proton transit across the inner membrane. UCP1 is a key element of nonshivering thermogenesis and is most likely important in the regulation of body adiposity. Pigs (Artiodactyl family Suidae) lack a functional UCP1 gene, resulting in poor thermoregulation and susceptibility to cold, which is an economic and pig welfare issue owing to neonatal mortality. Pigs also have a tendency toward fat accumulation, which may be linked to their lack of UCP1, and thus influences the efficiency of pig production. Here, we report application of a CRISPR/Cas9-mediated, homologous recombination (HR)-independent approach to efficiently insert mouse adiponectin-UCP1 into the porcine endogenous UCP1 locus. The resultant UCP1 knock-in (KI) pigs showed an improved ability to maintain body temperature during acute cold exposure, but they did not have alterations in physical activity levels or total daily energy expenditure (DEE). Furthermore, ectopic UCP1 expression in white adipose tissue (WAT) dramatically decreased fat deposition by 4.89% (P < 0.01), consequently increasing carcass lean percentage (CLP; P < 0.05). Mechanism studies indicated that the loss of fat upon UCP1 activation in WAT was linked to elevated lipolysis. UCP1 KI pigs are a potentially valuable resource for agricultural production through their combination of cold adaptation, which improves pig welfare and reduces economic losses, with reduced fat deposition and increased lean meat production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical adaptation of sorghum production to arid and semiarid conditions has provided promise regarding its sustained productivity under future warming scenarios. Using Kansas field-trial sorghum data collected from 1985 to 2014 and spanning 408 hybrid cultivars, we show that sorghum productivity under increasing warming scenarios breaks down. Through extensive regression modeling, we identify a temperature threshold of 33 °C, beyond which yields start to decline. We show that this decline is robust across both field-trial and on-farm data. Moderate and higher warming scenarios of 2 °C and 4 °C resulted in roughly 17% and 44% yield reductions, respectively. The average reduction across warming scenarios from 1 to 5 °C is 10% per degree Celsius. Breeding efforts over the last few decades have developed high-yielding cultivars with considerable variability in heat resilience, but even the most tolerant cultivars did not offer much resilience to warming temperatures. This outcome points to two concerns regarding adaption to global warming, the first being that adaptation will not be as simple as producers' switching among currently available cultivars and the second being that there is currently narrow genetic diversity for heat resilience in US breeding programs. Using observed flowering dates and disaggregating heat-stress impacts, both pre- and postflowering stages were identified to be equally important for overall yields. These findings suggest the adaptation potential for sorghum under climate change would be greatly facilitated by introducing wider genetic diversity for heat resilience into ongoing breeding programs, and that there should be additional efforts to improve resilience during the preflowering phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban expansion often occurs on croplands. However, there is little scientific understanding of how global patterns of future urban expansion will affect the world’s cultivated areas. Here, we combine spatially explicit projections of urban expansion with datasets on global croplands and crop yields. Our results show that urban expansion will result in a 1.8–2.4% loss of global croplands by 2030, with substantial regional disparities. About 80% of global cropland loss from urban expansion will take place in Asia and Africa. In both Asia and Africa, much of the cropland that will be lost is more than twice as productive as national averages. Asia will experience the highest absolute loss in cropland, whereas African countries will experience the highest percentage loss of cropland. Globally, the croplands that are likely to be lost were responsible for 3–4% of worldwide crop production in 2000. Urban expansion is expected to take place on cropland that is 1.77 times more productive than the global average. The loss of cropland is likely to be accompanied by other sustainability risks and threatens livelihoods, with diverging characteristics for different megaurban regions. Governance of urban area expansion thus emerges as a key area for securing livelihoods in the agrarian economies of the Global South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improvements in plant agricultural productivity are urgently needed to reduce the dependency on limited natural resources and produce enough food for a growing world population. Human intervention over thousands of years has improved the yield of important crops; however, it is increasingly difficult to find new targets for genetic improvement. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are promising targets for crop improvement, but their inactivation is technically challenging and has hampered functional analyses. We have produced a large collection of transgenic short tandem target mimic (STTM) lines silencing 35 miRNA families in rice as a resource for functional studies and crop improvement. Visual assessment of field-grown miRNA-silenced lines uncovered alterations in many valuable agronomic traits, including plant height, tiller number, and grain number, that remained stable for up to five generations. We show that manipulation of miR398 can increase panicle length, grain number, and grain size in rice. In addition, we discovered additional agronomic functions for several known miRNAs, including miR172 and miR156. Our collection of STTM lines thus represents a valuable resource for functional analysis of rice miRNAs, as well as for agronomic improvement that can be readily transferred to other important food crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ~70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981-2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence of satellite sensors that can routinely observe millions of individual smallholder farms raises possibilities for monitoring and understanding agricultural productivity in many regions of the world. Here we demonstrate the potential to track smallholder maize yield variation in western Kenya, using a combination of 1-m Terra Bella imagery and intensive field sampling on thousands of fields over 2 y. We find that agreement between satellite-based and traditional field survey-based yield estimates depends significantly on the quality of the field-based measures, with agreement highest (R2" role="presentation">R2R2R2 up to 0.4) when using precise field measures of plot area and when using larger fields for which rounding errors are smaller. We further show that satellite-based measures are able to detect positive yield responses to fertilizer and hybrid seed inputs and that the inferred responses are statistically indistinguishable from estimates based on survey-based yields. These results suggest that high-resolution satellite imagery can be used to make predictions of smallholder agricultural productivity that are roughly as accurate as the survey-based measures traditionally used in research and policy applications, and they indicate a substantial near-term potential to quickly generate useful datasets on productivity in smallholder systems, even with minimal or no field training data. Such datasets could rapidly accelerate learning about which interventions in smallholder systems have the most positive impact, thus enabling more rapid transformation of rural livelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plants have the ability to respond to seasonal environmental variations by monitoring day length to initiate flowering. The transition from vegetative to the reproductive stage is the critical developmental switch in flowering plants to ensure optimal fitness and/or yield. It has been previously reported that B-BOX32 (BBX32) has the potential to increase grain yield when ectopically expressed in soybean. In the present study, we performed a detailedmolecular characterization of the Arabidopsis B-box domain gene BBX32. We showed that the circadian clock in Arabidopsis regulates BBX32 and expressed in the early morning. To understand the molecular mechanism of BBX32 regulation, we performed a large-scale yeast twohybrid screen and identified CONSTANS-LIKE 3 (COL3)/BBX4 as one of its interacting protein partners. Using different genetic and biochemical assays, we have validated this interaction and shown that COL3 targets FT in the presence of BBX32 to regulate the flowering pathway. Based on these findings, we hypothesized that this BBX32-COL3 module could be an additional regulatory mechanism affecting the reproductive development in Arabidopsis that could be translated to crops for increased agricultural productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leaf shape varies spectacularly among plants. Leaves are the primary source of photoassimilate in crop plants, and understanding the genetic basis of variation in leaf morphology is critical to improving agricultural productivity. Leaf shape played a unique role in cotton improvement, as breeders have selected for entire and lobed leaf morphs resulting from a single locus, okra (L-D1), which is responsible for the major leaf shapes in cotton. The L-D1 locus is not only of agricultural importance in cotton, but through pioneering chimeric and morphometric studies, it has contributed to fundamental knowledge about leaf development. Here we show that an HD-Zip transcription factor homologous to the LATE MERISTEM IDENTITY1 (LMI1) gene of Arabidopsis is the causal gene underlying the L-D1 locus. The classical okra leaf shape allele has a 133-bp tandem duplication in the promoter, correlated with elevated expression, whereas an 8-bp deletion in the third exon of the presumed wild-type normal allele causes a frame-shifted and truncated coding sequence. Our results indicate that subokra is the ancestral leaf shape of tetraploid cotton that gave rise to the okra allele and that normal is a derived mutant allele that came to predominate and define the leaf shape of cultivated cotton. Virus-induced gene silencing (VIGS) of the LMI1-like gene in an okra variety was sufficient to induce normal leaf formation. The developmental changes in leaves conferred by this gene are associated with a photosynthetic transcriptomic signature, substantiating its use by breeders to produce a superior cotton ideotype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many important crops are members of the Poaceae family, which develop root systems characterized by a high degree of root initiation from the belowground basal nodes of the shoot, termed the crown. Although this postembryonic shoot-borne root system represents the major conduit for water uptake, little is known about the effect of water availability on its development. Here we demonstrate that in the model C4 grass Setaria viridis, the crown locally senses water availability and suppresses postemergence crown root growth under a water deficit. This response was observed in field and growth room environments and in all grass species tested. Luminescence-based imaging of root systems grown in soil-like media revealed a shift in root growth from crown-derived to primary root-derived branches, suggesting that primary root-dominated architecture can be induced in S. viridis under certain stress conditions. Crown roots of Zea mays and Setaria italica, domesticated relatives of teosinte and S. viridis, respectively, show reduced sensitivity to water deficit, suggesting that this response might have been influenced by human selection. Enhanced water status of maize mutants lacking crown roots suggests that under a water deficit, stronger suppression of crown roots actually may benefit crop productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on a study on mutations in EID1 and LNK2 caused light-conditional clock deceleration during tomato domestication by N.A. Müller and colleagues. Topics discussed include selection of genetic variants associated with a large deletion within the clock gene LNK2; damage caused by continuous light exposure in tomato due to circadian asynchrony; and selection in domesticated crops and improve crop productivity.

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) plays a central role in food production, and at the same time it can be an important pollutant with substantial effects on air and water quality, biological diversity, and human health. China now creates far more Nr than any other country. We developed a budget for Nr in China in 1980 and 2010, in which we evaluated the natural and anthropogenic creation of Nr, losses of Nr, and transfers among 14 subsystems within China. Our analyses demonstrated that a tripling of anthropogenic Nr creation was associated with an even more rapid increase in Nr fluxes to the atmosphere and hydrosphere, contributing to intense and increasing threats to human health, the sustainability of croplands, and the environment of China and its environs. Under a business as usual scenario, anthropogenic Nr creation in 2050 would more than double compared with 2010 levels, whereas a scenario that combined reasonable changes in diet, N use efficiency, and N recycling could reduce N losses and anthropogenic Nr creation in 2050 to 52% and 64% of 2010 levels, respectively. Achieving reductions in Nr creation (while simultaneously increasing food production and offsetting imports of animal feed) will require much more in addition to good science, but it is useful to know that there are pathways by which both food security and health/environmental protection could be enhanced simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The High Plains, Mississippi Embayment, and Central Valley aquifer systems within the United States are currently being overexploited for irrigation water supplies. The unsustainable use of groundwater resources in all three aquifer systems intensified from 2000 to 2008, making it imperative that we understand the consumptive processes and forces of demand that are driving their depletion. To this end, we quantify and track agricultural virtual groundwater transfers from these overexploited aquifer systems to their final destination. Specifically, we determine which US metropolitan areas, US states, and international export destinations are currently the largest consumers of these critical aquifers. We draw upon US government data on agricultural production, irrigation, and domestic food flows, as well as modeled estimates of agricultural virtual water contents to quantify domestic transfers. Additionally, we use US port-level trade data to trace international exports from these aquifers. In 2007, virtual groundwater transfers from the High Plains, Mississippi Embayment, and Central Valley aquifer systems totaled 17.93 km³, 9.18 km³, and 6.81 km³, respectively, which is comparable to the capacity of Lake Mead (35.7 km³), the largest surface reservoir in the United States. The vast majority (91%) of virtual groundwater transfers remains within the United States. Importantly, the cereals produced by these overexploited aquifers are critical to US food security (contributing 18.5% to domestic cereal supply). Notably, Japan relies upon cereals produced by these overexploited aquifers for 9.2% of its domestic cereal supply. These results highlight the need to understand the teleconnections between distant food demands and local agricultural water use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world's crop productivity is stagnating whereas population growth, rising affluence, and mandates for biofuels put increasing demands on agriculture. Meanwhile, demand for increasing cropland competes with equally crucial global sustainability and environmental protection needs. Addressing this looming agricultural crisis will be one of our greatest scientific challenges in the coming decades, and success will require substantial improvements at many levels. We assert that increasing the efficiency and productivity of photosynthesis in crop plants will be essential if this grand challenge is to be met. Here, we explore an array of prospective redesigns of plant systems at various scales, all aimed at increasing crop yields through improved photosynthetic efficiency and performance. Prospects range from straightforward alterations, already supported by preliminary evidence of feasibility, to substantial redesigns that are currently only conceptual, but that may be enabled by new developments in synthetic biology. Although some proposed redesigns are certain to face obstacles that will require alternate routes, the efforts should lead to new discoveries and technical advances with important impacts on the global problem of crop productivity and bioenergy production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report directly dated evidence from circa 1400 calibrated years (cal) B.C. for the early use of wheat, barley, and flax as staple crops on the borders of the Tibetan Plateau. During recent years, an increasing amount of data from the Tibetan Plateau and its margins shows that a transition from millets to wheat and barley agriculture took place during the second millennium B.C. Using thermal niche modeling, we refute previous assertions that the ecological characteristics of wheat and barley delayed their spread into East Asia. Rather, we demonstrate that the ability of these crops to tolerate frost and their low growing degree-day requirements facilitated their spread into the high-altitude margins of western China. Following their introduction to this region, these crops rapidly replaced Chinese millets and became the staple crops that still characterize agriculture in this area today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genomic selection is an upgrading form of marker-assisted selection for quantitative traits , and it differs from the traditional marker-assisted selection in that markers in the entire genome are used to predict genetic values and the QTL detection step is skipped . Genomic selection holds the promise to be more efficient than the traditional marker-assisted selection for traits controlled by polygenes. Genomic selection for pure breed improvement is based on marker information and thus leads to cost-saving due to early selection before pheno types are measured. When applied to hybrid breeding, genomic selection is anticipated to be even more efficient because genotypes of hybrids are predetermined by their inbred parents. Hybrid breeding has been an important tool to increase crop productivity . Here we proposed and applied an advanced method to predict hybrid performance , in which a subset of all potential hybrids is used as a training sample to predict trait values of all potential hybrids. The method is called genomic best linear unbiased prediction. The technology applied to hybrids is called genomic hybrid breeding. We used 278 randomly selected hybrids derived from 210 recombinant inbred lines of rice as a training sample and predicted all 21,945 potential hybrids. The average yield of top 100 selection shows a 16% increase compared with the average yield of all potential hybrids. The new strategy of marker-guided prediction of hybrid yields serves as a proof of concept for a new technology that may potentially revolutionize hybrid breeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400- 1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase in agricultural production over the past 40 y has greatly altered land-use patterns, often resulting in simplified landscapes composed of large swaths of monocultures separated by small fragments of natural lands. These simplified landscapes may be more susceptible to insect pest pressure because of the loss of natural enemies and the increased size and connectivity of crop resources, and a recent analysis from a single year (2007) suggests this increased susceptibility results in increased insecticide use. I broaden the temporal analysis of this connection between landscape simplification and insecticide use by examining cross-sectional and panel data models from multiple decades (US Department of Agriculture Census of Agriculture years 2007, 2002, 1997, 1992, 1987) for seven Midwestern states composed of over 560 counties. I find that although the proportion of county in cropland–my metric for landscape simplification–was positively correlated with insecticide use in 2007, this relationship is absent or reversed in prior census years and when all years are analyzed together. This broader temporal perspective suggests that landscape simplification has inconsistent effects on insecticide use and that multiyear studies will be key to unlocking the true drivers of variation in insecticide application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]