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Background: Childhood, adolescent and young adult (CAYA) cancer survivors are vulnerable to adverse late-effects. For CAYA cancer survivors, tobacco smoking is the most important preventable cause of ill-health and early death. Yet, effective strategies to support smoking cessation in this group are lacking. The PRISM study aims to undertake multi-method formative research to explore the need for, and if appropriate, inform the future development of an evidence-based and theory-informed tobacco smoking cessation intervention for CAYA cancer survivors. Materials and methods: PRISM involves three phases of: 1) an environmental scan using multiple strategies to identify and examine a) smoking cessation interventions for CAYA cancer survivors that are published in the international literature and b) current smoking cessation services in England that may be available to, or tailorable to, CAYA cancer survivors; 2) a qualitative study involving semi-structured interviews with CAYA cancer survivors (aged 16–29 years and who are current or recent ex-smokers and/or current vapers) to explore their views and experiences of smoking, smoking cessation and vaping; and 3) stakeholder workshops with survivors, healthcare professionals and other stakeholders to consider the potential for a smoking cessation intervention for CAYA cancer survivors and what such an intervention would need to target and change. Findings will be disseminated to patient groups, healthcare professionals and researchers, through conference presentations, journal papers, plain English summaries and social media. Discussion: PRISM will explore current delivery of, perceived need for, and barriers and facilitators to, smoking cessation advice and support to CAYA cancer survivors from the perspective of both survivors and healthcare professionals. A key strength of PRISM is the user involvement throughout the study and the additional exploration of survivors' views on vaping, a behaviour which often co-occurs with smoking. PRISM is the first step in the development of a person-centred, evidence- and theory-based smoking cessation intervention for CAYA cancer survivors who smoke, which if effective, will reduce morbidity and mortality in the CAYA cancer survivor population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The aim of this paper is to investigate what factors are associated to cardiovascular disease and what differences exists between Asians living in the UK (from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing) and the Asians living in India (from the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India). Methods: Logistic regression was used to investigate how demographic and physical performance factors were associated with cardiovascular disease using data from Wave 6 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and Wave 1 of the Longitudinal Study of Ageing in India, with the main variable of interest being country of residence, Asians in England or Asians in India. Results: A total of 83,997 participants were included in the analyses. In the primary analysis, 73,396 participants from LASI were compared to 171 Asians in ELSA. After adjusting for age, blood pressure, resting heart rate, sex, waist circumference, gait, handgrip strength and standing balance, there was a statistically significant difference for the outcome of CVD between Whites ELSA (reference) and the participants of LASI (odds ratio = 0.77; 95% confidence interval = 0.60 to 0.99). There were no significant differences in CVD between the LASI participants, Asian ELSA, and the Non-White but not Asian ELSA groups. Discussion: No difference was found between Asians that live in India compared to ethnic minorities living in England, including Asians, after adjusting for confounders, but was found between Whites in ELSA compared to LASI participants. A key limitation was the massive disparity in sample sizes between the ELSA subgroups and LASI. Further work is required where comparable sample sizes and longitudinal analyses allow trends to be identified and to investigate the factors associated with the difference in CVD between two similar ethnicities living in distinct locations. Conclusion: After adjusting for risk factors, there was no difference in CVD between localised Asians and the ethnic minorities in the UK, but there was a difference between the majority ethnicities in the respective countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although both the analysis of regional culture and urbanisation are long-standing preoccupations in geography, few studies have considered the relationship between the two, the former traditionally being a topic in cultural geography, while the latter is usually interpreted and analysed as a process in economic geography. Taking evidence from the 1851–1911 censuses of England and Wales, this article analyses individual migration paths to identify stable regions of human interaction by applying a sophisticated community-detection algorithm. By accurately mapping the regions within which the majority of migration occurred between 1851 and 1911 and arguing that the stability of these geographies is evidence of more than just mutable communities but rather of persistent regional cultures, this article responds to previous studies that have sought to identify the cultural provinces of England and Wales. Indeed, by demonstrating that the regions bear a striking resemblance to those that have long been hypothesised as being distinct cultural provinces of England and Wales, this article empirically corroborates their existence. In order to further demonstrate that the regions constitute cultural provinces, this paper incorporates these boundaries into a spatial interaction model (SIM). The results of the SIM not only shows that the boundaries between the regions limited the number of migrants that crossed them–over and above that explained by control variables–and therefore represented the boundaries of cultural provinces, demarcating discrete regions of human interaction–but that such boundaries disproportionately restricted rural-urban migrants, thereby slowing the pace at which England and Wales urbanised. This paper therefore demonstrates that urbanisation should not only be interpreted as only an economic phenomenon, but a cultural one also, and that if urbanisation is to be fully understood, individuals' attachment to place as a component of their identity, ought to be formally incorporated into models of migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Delivering care to growing numbers of patients with increasingly 'complex' needs is currently compromised by a system designed to treat patients within organizational clinical specialties, making this difficult to reconfigure to fit care to needs. Problematic experiences of people with cognitive impairment(s) admitted to hospitals with a hip fracture, exemplify the complex challenges that result if their care is not tailored. This study explored whether a flexible, multicomponent intervention, adapting services to the needs of this patient group, could be implemented in acute hospital settings. Methods: We used action research with case study design to introduce the intervention using a Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) model to three different hospital sites (cases) across England. The qualitative data for this paper was researcher-generated (notes from observations and teleconference meetings) and change agent-generated (action plans and weekly reflective reports of change agents' activities). Normalization Process Theory (NPT) was used to analyze and explain the work of interacting actors in implementing and then normalizing (embedding) the intervention across contexts and times. Data analysis was abductive, generating inductive codes then identified with NPT constructs. Across the three cases, change agents had to work through numerous implementation challenges: needing to make sense of the intervention package, the PDSA model as implementation method, and their own role as change agents and to orientate these within their action context (coherence). They had to work to encourage colleagues to invest in these changes (cognitive participation) and find ways to implement the intervention by mobilising changes (collective action). Finally, they created strategies for clinical routines to continue to self-review, reconfiguring actions and future plans to enable the intervention to be sustained (reflexive monitoring). Conclusions: Successful implementation of the (PERFECT-ER) intervention requires change agents to recognize and engage with local values, and then to enable its fit with practice and wider contextual goals. A context of constant change fragments normalization. Thus, sustaining practice change over time is fragile and requires change agents to continue a recursive two-way sense-making process. This enables implementation and normalization to re-energize and overcome barriers to change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasing costs of healthcare in England and Wales following the COVID-19 pandemic, finding alternatives to traditional medical interventions is more important than ever. Social prescribing provides a way of addressing health and well-being through using non-medical methods that may help relieve costs to the NHS. Evaluating interventions, such as social prescribing, which have high social (but not easily quantifiable) value, can be problematic. Social return on investment (SROI) is a method of assigning monetary values to both social value as well as traditional assets, so provides a way of evaluating social prescribing initiatives. This protocol outlines the steps that will be taken in a systematic review of the SROI literature surrounding social prescribing-type integrated health and social care interventions based in the community in England and Wales. Online academic databases such as PubMed Central, ASSIA and Web of Science will be searched, as will grey literature sources such as Google Scholar, the Wales School for Social Prescribing Research (WSSPR) and Social Value UK. Titles and abstracts from the articles returned by the searches will be reviewed by one researcher. Those selected for full text review will be independently reviewed and compared by two researchers. Where the researchers disagree a third reviewer will help resolve any differences. Information collected will include identifying stakeholder groups, assessing the quality of SROI analyses, identifying intended and unintended changes of social prescribing interventions, and comparing social prescribing initiatives in terms of SROI costs and benefits. Quality assessment will be independently conducted on the selected papers by two researchers. The researchers will discuss to obtain consensus. Where there is disagreement, a third researcher will resolve these cases. A pre-existing quality framework will be developed and used to assess the quality of the literature. Protocol registration Prospero registration number:CRD42022318911. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pragmatic challenges remain in the monitoring and return to play (RTP) decisions following suspected Sports Related Concussion (SRC). Reliance on traditional approaches (pen and paper) means players readiness for RTP is often based on self-reported symptom recognition as a marker for full physiological recovery. Non-digital approaches also limit opportunity for robust data analysis which may hinder understanding of the interconnected nature and relationships in deficit recovery. Digital approaches may provide more objectivity to measure and monitor impairments in SRC. Crucially, there is dearth of protocols for SRC assessment and digital devices have yet to be tested concurrently (multimodal) in SRC rugby union assessment. Here we propose a multimodal protocol for digital assessment in SRC, which could be used to enhance traditional sports concussion assessment approaches. Methods: We aim to use a repeated measures observational study utilising a battery of multimodal assessment tools (symptom, cognitive, visual, motor). We aim to recruit 200 rugby players (male n≈100 and female n≈100) from University Rugby Union teams and local amateur rugby clubs in the North East of England. The multimodal battery assessment used in this study will compare metrics between digital methods and against traditional assessment. Conclusion: This paper outlines a protocol for a multimodal approach for the use of digital technologies to augment traditional approaches to SRC, which may better inform RTP in rugby union. Findings may shed light on new ways of working with digital tools in SRC. Multimodal approaches may enhance understanding of the interconnected nature of impairments and provide insightful, more objective assessment and RTP in SRC. Clinical trial registration: NCT04938570. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=NCT04938570&term=&cntry=&state=&city=&dist= [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims and objectives: This paper aims to improve understanding of factors that contribute to persistent ethnic disparities in patient satisfaction in England. The specific objectives are to (i) examine ethnic differences in patient satisfaction with their primary care in England; and (ii) establish factors that contribute to ethnic differences in patient satisfaction. Data and methods: The study is based on secondary analysis of recent General Practitioner Patient Survey (GPPS) datasets of 2019, 2020 and 2021. Descriptive bivariate analysis was used to examine ethnic differences in patient satisfaction across the three years. This was followed with multilevel linear regression, with General Practice (GP) at level-1 and Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) at level-2 to identify factors contributing to ethnic differences in patient satisfaction. Results: The findings show consistent negative correlations between the proportion of patients reporting good (very or fairly good) overall experience and each of the ethnic minority groups. Further examination of the distribution of patient satisfaction by ethnicity, based on combined ethnic minority groups, depicted a clear negative association between ethnic minority group and patient satisfaction at both GP and CCG levels. Multilevel regression analysis identified several service-related factors (especially ease of using GP website and being treated with care and concern) that largely explained the ethnic differences in patient satisfaction. Of all factors relating to patient characteristics considered in the analysis, none was significant after controlling for GP service-related factors. Conclusions: Ethnic minority patients in England continue to consistently report lower satisfaction with their primary health care in recent years. This is largely attributable to supply (service related) rather than demand (patient characteristics) factors. These findings have important implications for health care system policy and practice at both GP and CCG levels in England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prevalence of dyslexia identification has increased significantly over the last two decades. Yet there is debate over whether there are distinct biological and cognitive differences between those with literacy difficulties and the subgroup of people identified as dyslexic. This is the first paper that provides evidence for this ongoing debate by investigating the socio-demographic factors, outside biology and cognition, that predict whether a child is identified as dyslexic in the UK. Using secondary data from the UK's Millennium Cohort Study, this paper examines the socio-demographic factors that predict whether a child's teacher identifies them as dyslexic at age 11. Gender, season of birth, socio-economic class and parental income are found to be significant predictors of the dyslexia label. Therefore, factors seemingly unrelated to the clinical aspects of dyslexia influence whether a child is identified as dyslexic in England and Wales. This suggests that label may not be evenly distributed across a population; furthermore, it may also indicate that resources for support may not be fairly allocated. The findings further support the argument that a 'dyslexic sub-group' within poor readers is created due to the impact of environmental factors. The results from this national-scale study thus questions the reliability, validity and moral integrity of the allocation of the dyslexia label across current education systems in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elderly and frail worldwide, particularly in care homes. This is driven by the difficulty of isolating care homes from the wider community, the large population sizes within care facilities (relative to typical households), and the age/frailty of the residents. To quantify the mortality risk posed by disease, the case fatality risk (CFR) is an important tool. This quantifies the proportion of cases that result in death. Throughout the pandemic, CFR amongst care home residents in England has been monitored closely. To estimate CFR, we apply both novel and existing methods to data on deaths in care homes, collected by Public Health England and the Care Quality Commission. We compare these different methods, evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses. Using these methods, we estimate temporal trends in the instantaneous CFR (at both daily and weekly resolutions) and the overall CFR across the whole of England, and dis-aggregated at regional level. We also investigate how the CFR varies based on age and on the type of care required, dis-aggregating by whether care homes include nursing staff and by age of residents. This work has contributed to the summary of measures used for monitoring the UK epidemic. Author summary: During an epidemic, the case fatality risk (CFR), i.e. the probability that an individual dies after testing positive for a disease, is a key parameter informing the public health response. However, calculating the CFR is not trivial, since there are cases who may die in the future but have not died yet. Therefore, statistical methods are required to correct for the distribution of times between testing positive and dying. In this paper, we derive multiple methods, some existing and some novel, within a consistent methodological framework. This allows us to understand how these different approaches are related and their relative strengths and weaknesses. During the COVID-19 pandemic, care homes have been particularly affected, due to the high risk of COVID-19-associated mortality in the frail and elderly. We apply our CFR methods to data from English care homes to analyse changes in the care home CFR throughout the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Medication errors are an important cause of morbidity and mortality. The pharmacist-led IT-based intervention to reduce clinically important medication errors (PINCER) intervention was shown to reduce medication errors when tested in a cluster randomised controlled trial and when implemented across one region of England. Now that it has been rolled out nationally, and to enhance findings from evaluations with staff and stakeholders, this paper is the first to report patients' perceived acceptability on the use of PINCER in primary care and proposes suggestions on how delivery of PINCER related care could be delivered in a way that is acceptable and not unnecessarily burdensome. Methods: A total of 46 participants living with long-term health conditions who had experience of medication reviews and/or monitoring were recruited through patient participant groups and social media. Semi-structured, qualitative interviews and focus groups were conducted face-to-face or via telephone. A thematic analysis was conducted and findings mapped to the constructs of the Theoretical Framework of Acceptability (TFA). Results: Two themes were identified and interpreted within the most relevant TFA construct: Perceptions on the purpose and components of PINCER (Affective Attitude and Intervention Coherence) and Perceived patient implications (Burden and Self-efficacy). Overall perceptions on PINCER were positive with participants showing good understanding of the components. Access to medication reviews, which PINCER related care can involve, was reported to be limited and a lack of consistency in practitioners delivering reviews was considered challenging, as was lack of communication between primary care and other health-care providers. Patients thought it would be helpful if medication reviews and prescription renewal times were synchronised. Remote medication review consultations were more convenient for some but viewed as a barrier to communication by others. It was acknowledged that some patients may be more resistant to change and more willing to accept changes initiated by general practitioners. Conclusions: Participants found the concept of PINCER acceptable; however, acceptability could be improved if awareness on the role of primary care pharmacists is raised and patient-pharmacist relationships enhanced. Being transparent with communication and delivering streamlined and consistent but flexible PINCER related care is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the scale of the threat posed by SARS-CoV2 B.1.1.529, or Omicron, variant formed a key problem in public health in the early part of 2022. Early evidence indicated that the variant was more transmissible and less severe than previous variants. As the virus was expected to spread quickly through the population of England, it was important that some understanding of the immunological landscape of the country was developed. This paper attempts to estimate the number of people with good immunity to the Omicron variant, defined as either recent infection with two doses of vaccine, or two doses of vaccine with a recent booster dose. To achieve this, we use a process of iterative proportional fitting to estimate the cell values of a contingency table, using national immunisation records and real-time model infection estimates as marginal values. Our results indicate that, despite the increased risk of immune evasion with the Omicron variant, a high proportion of England's population had good immunity to the virus, particularly in older age groups. However, low rates of immunity in younger populations may allow endemic infection to persist for some time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on healthcare systems worldwide. In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capacity in England, we used a variety of data streams to inform the construction and parameterisation of a hospital progression model, EpiBeds, which was coupled to a model of the generalised epidemic. In this model, individuals progress through different pathways (e.g. may recover, die, or progress to intensive care and recover or die) and data from a partially complete patient-pathway line-list was used to provide initial estimates of the mean duration that individuals spend in the different hospital compartments. We then fitted EpiBeds using complete data on hospital occupancy and hospital deaths, enabling estimation of the proportion of individuals that follow the different clinical pathways, the reproduction number of the generalised epidemic, and to make short-term predictions of hospital bed demand. The construction of EpiBeds makes it straightforward to adapt to different patient pathways and settings beyond England. As part of the UK response to the pandemic, EpiBeds provided weekly forecasts to the NHS for hospital bed occupancy and admissions in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland at national and regional scales. Author summary: COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, leads to a high proportion of cases requiring admission to hospital. Coupled with the high burden of infections worldwide, this put substantial pressure on healthcare systems. To enable public health systems to cope with the high levels of demand, forecasting models are vital. These models enable public health managers to plan their workloads accordingly. Here, we developed EpiBeds, which combines an epidemic model with a model for patient flow through hospitals. By fitting this model to data from England, EpiBeds has been used to provide short-term forecasts of hospital admissions and bed demand weekly throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we describe the motivation behind the structure of EpiBeds, how the model is fitted to data, and report the estimates of the key parameters throughout the pandemic. We then evaluate the performance of EpiBeds by comparing generated forecasts to future data points, finding good agreement between the forecasts and data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To explore COVID-19 vaccination uptake, facilitators and barriers in ethnically-diverse pregnant women. Design and setting: An anonymous quality improvement questionnaire survey exploring COVID-19 vaccination uptake, causes of vaccine hesitancy and trusted sources of information among pregnant women in two acute district general hospitals in England (Berkshire and Surrey) between 1.9.21 and 28.2.22. Population: 441 pregnant women attending routine antenatal clinic appointments. Methods: Consented pregnant women completed the survey either electronically using a QR code or on paper. Descriptive data were summarised and free text responses were thematically analysed. Results: 441 pregnant women, mean age 32 years (range 17–44), completed the survey. Twenty-six percent were from ethnic minority groups, and 31% had a co-morbid health condition. Most respondents (66.2%) had been vaccinated against COVID-19 with at least one dose (White British 71.9%, Asian 67.9%, White-other 63.6%, Black 33%). The most common reasons for not being vaccinated were concerns about effects on the unborn baby and future pregnancies, anxiety about possible adverse impact on the mother, not enough known about the vaccine, and lack of trust in vaccines. Comments included: "I'd rather not risk injecting the unknown into my body", and "I don't trust it." Although 23% used social media for information on COVID-19 vaccination, the most trusted sources were the patient's GP and midwife (43%) and official health-related websites such as NHS (39%). Conclusions: A third of these pregnant women had not been vaccinated against COVID-19. Trusted health professionals like midwives and GPs could have a crucial role in increasing vaccination uptake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of widespread adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) on urban structure worldwide. Has it offset agglomeration benefits and led to more dispersed spatial structures, or has it strengthened urban externalities and thus resulted in more concentrated spatial structures? Theoretical and empirical studies on this question have produced contradictory findings. The present study recognizes that assumptions made earlier about the evolution of technological capabilities do not necessarily hold today. As cutting-edge digital technologies have matured considerably, a fresh look at this question is called for. The paper addresses this issue by means of several data sets using instrumental variable methods. One is the UN data on Urban Settlements with more than 300, 000 inhabitants. Estimation methods with these data show that increased adoption of ICT has resulted in national urban systems that are less uniform in terms of city sizes and are characterized by higher population concentrations in larger cities, when concentration is proxied the Pareto (Zipf) coefficient for national city size distributions. Two, is disaggregated data for the urban systems of the US, defined as Micropolitan and Metropolitan Areas, and for the UK, defined as Built-up Areas in England and Wales, respectively. These data allow for the impacts to be studied for cities smaller than those included in the cross-country data. Increased internet usage improved a city's ranking in the US urban system. Similarly, increased download speed improves a built-up area's ranking in England and Wales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The need to improve the quality of community mental health services for people with Complex Emotional Needs (CEN) (who may have a diagnosis of 'personality disorder') is recognised internationally and has become a renewed policy priority in England. Such improvement requires positive engagement from clinicians across the service system, and their perspectives on achieving good practice need to be understood. Aim: To synthesise qualitative evidence on clinician perspectives on what constitutes good practice, and what helps or prevents it being achieved, in community mental health services for people with CEN. Methods: Six bibliographic databases were searched for studies published since 2003 and supplementary citation tracking was conducted. Studies that used any recognised qualitative method and reported clinician experiences and perspectives on community-based mental health services for adults with CEN were eligible for this review, including generic and specialist settings. Meta-synthesis was used to generate and synthesise over-arching themes across included studies. Results: Twenty-nine papers were eligible for inclusion, most with samples given a 'personality disorder' diagnosis. Six over-arching themes were identified: 1. The use and misuse of diagnosis; 2. The patient journey into services: nowhere to go; 3. Therapeutic relationships: connection and distance; 4. The nature of treatment: not doing too much or too little; 5. Managing safety issues and crises: being measured and proactive; 6. Clinician and wider service needs: whose needs are they anyway? The overall quality of the evidence was moderate. Discussion: Through summarising the literature on clinician perspectives on good practice for people with CEN, over-arching priorities were identified on which there appears to be substantial consensus. In their focus on needs such as for a long-term perspective on treatment journeys, high quality and consistent therapeutic relationships, and a balanced approach to safety, clinician priorities are mainly congruent with those found in studies on service user views. They also identify clinician needs that should be met for good care to be provided, including for supervision, joint working and organisational support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher education students' mental health has been a growing concern in recent years even before the COVID-19 pandemic. The stresses and restrictions associated with the pandemic have put university students at greater risk of developing mental health issues, which may significantly impair their academic success, social interactions and their future career and personal opportunities. This paper aimed to understand the mental health status of University students at an early stage in the pandemic and to investigate factors associated with higher levels of distress. An online survey including demographics, lifestyle/living situations, brief mental well-being history, questions relating to COVID-19 and standardised measures of depression, anxiety, resilience and quality of life was completed by 1173 students at one University in the North of England. We found high levels of anxiety and depression, with more than 50% experiencing levels above the clinical cut offs, and females scoring significantly higher than males. The survey also suggested relatively low levels of resilience which we attribute to restrictions and isolation which reduced the opportunities to engage in helpful coping strategies and activities rather than enduring personality characteristics. Higher levels of distress were associated with lower levels of exercising, higher levels of tobacco use, and a number of life events associated with the pandemic and lockdown, such as cancelled events, worsening in personal relationships and financial concerns. We discuss the importance of longer-term monitoring and mental health support for university students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detail is a double edged sword in epidemiological modelling. The inclusion of mechanistic detail in models of highly complex systems has the potential to increase realism, but it also increases the number of modelling assumptions, which become harder to check as their possible interactions multiply. In a major study of the Covid-19 epidemic in England, Knock et al. (2020) fit an age structured SEIR model with added health service compartments to data on deaths, hospitalization and test results from Covid-19 in seven English regions for the period March to December 2020. The simplest version of the model has 684 states per region. One main conclusion is that only full lockdowns brought the pathogen reproduction number, R, below one, with R ≫ 1 in all regions on the eve of March 2020 lockdown. We critically evaluate the Knock et al. epidemiological model, and the semi-causal conclusions made using it, based on an independent reimplementation of the model designed to allow relaxation of some of its strong assumptions. In particular, Knock et al. model the effect on transmission of both non-pharmaceutical interventions and other effects, such as weather, using a piecewise linear function, b(t), with 12 breakpoints at selected government announcement or intervention dates. We replace this representation by a smoothing spline with time varying smoothness, thereby allowing the form of b(t) to be substantially more data driven, and we check that the corresponding smoothness assumption is not driving our results. We also reset the mean incubation time and time from first symptoms to hospitalisation, used in the model, to values implied by the papers cited by Knock et al. as the source of these quantities. We conclude that there is no sound basis for using the Knock et al. model and their analysis to make counterfactual statements about the number of deaths that would have occurred with different lockdown timings. However, if fits of this epidemiological model structure are viewed as a reasonable basis for inference about the time course of incidence and R, then without very strong modelling assumptions, the pathogen reproduction number was probably below one, and incidence in substantial decline, some days before either of the first two English national lockdowns. This result coincides with that obtained by more direct attempts to reconstruct incidence. Of course it does not imply that lockdowns had no effect, but it does suggest that other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may have been much more effective than Knock et al. imply, and that full lockdowns were probably not the cause of R dropping below one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Global Digital Exemplar (GDE) Programme was designed to promote the digitisation of hospital services in England. Selected provider organisations that were reasonably digitally-mature were funded with the expectation that they would achieve internationally recognised levels of excellence and act as exemplars ('GDE sites') and share their learning with somewhat less digitally-mature Fast Follower (FF) sites. Aims: This paper explores how partnerships between GDE and FF sites have promoted knowledge sharing and learning between organisations. Methods: We conducted an independent qualitative longitudinal evaluation of the GDE Programme, collecting data across 36 provider organisations (including acute, mental health and speciality), 12 of which we studied as in-depth ethnographic case studies. We used a combination of semi-structured interviews with programme leads, vendors and national policy leads, non-participant observations of meetings and workshops, and analysed national and local documents. This allowed us to explore both how inter-organisational learning and knowledge sharing was planned, and how it played out in practice. Thematic qualitative analysis, combining findings from diverse data sources, was facilitated by NVivo 11 and drew on sociotechnical systems theory. Results: Formally established GDE and FF partnerships were perceived to enhance learning and accelerate adoption of technologies in most pairings. They were seen to be most successful where they had encouraged, and were supported by, informal knowledge networking, driven by the mutual benefits of information sharing. Informal networking was enhanced where the benefits were maximised (for example where paired sites had implemented the same technological system) and networking costs minimised (for example by geographical proximity, prior links and institutional alignment). Although the intervention anticipated uni-directional learning between exemplar sites and 'followers', in most cases we observed a two-way flow of information, with GDEs also learning from FFs, through informal networking which also extended to other health service providers outside the Programme. The efforts of the GDE Programme to establish a learning ecosystem has enhanced the profile of shared learning within the NHS. Conclusions: Inter-organisational partnerships have produced significant gains for both follower (FF) and exemplar (GDE) sites. Formal linkages were most effective where they had facilitated, and were supported by, informal networking. Informal networking was driven by the mutual benefits of information sharing and was optimised where sites were well aligned in terms of technology, geography and culture. Misalignments that created barriers to networking between organisations in a few cases were attributed to inappropriate choice of partners. Policy makers seeking to promote learning through centrally directed mechanisms need to create a framework that enables networking and informal knowledge transfer, allowing local organisations to develop bottom-up collaboration and exchanges, where they are productive, in an organic manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prospective cohort studies of incident HIV and associated factors among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in the United Kingdom are lacking. We report time trends in and factors associated with HIV incidence between 2013 and 2019 among a cohort of GBMSM: the AURAH2 prospective study.Methods and Findings: Participants were recruited through 1 of 3 sexual health clinics in London and Brighton (July 2013 to April 2016) and self-completed a baseline paper questionnaire and subsequent 4-monthly and annual online questionnaires (March 2015 to March 2018), including information on sociodemographics, lifestyle, health and well-being, HIV status, sexual/HIV-related behaviours, and preexposure prophylaxis and postexposure prophylaxis (PrEP/PEP). Incident HIV was ascertained by linkage with national HIV surveillance data from Public Health England (PHE). We investigated the associations of HIV incidence with (1) baseline factors using mixed-effects Weibull proportional hazard models, unadjusted and adjusted for age, country of birth and ethnicity, sexuality, and education level; and (2) time-updated factors, using mixed-effects Poisson regression models. In total, 1,162 men (mean age 34 years, 82% white, 94% gay, 74% university-educated) were enrolled in the study. Thirty-three HIV seroconversions occurred over 4,618.9 person-years (PY) of follow-up: an overall HIV incidence rate (IR) of 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51 to 1.00) per 100 PY. Incidence declined from 1.47 (95% CI 0.48 to 4.57) per 100 PY in 2013/2014 to 0.25 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.78) per 100 PY in 2018/2019; average annual decline was 0.85-fold (p < 0.001). Baseline factors associated with HIV acquisition included the following: injection drug use (6/38 men who reported injection drug-acquired HIV; unadjusted conditional hazard ratio (HR) 27.96, 95% CI 6.99 to 111.85, p < 0.001), noninjection chemsex-related drug use (13/321; HR 6.45, 95% CI 1.84 to 22.64, p < 0.001), condomless anal sex (CLS) (26/741; HR 3.75, 95% CI 1.31 to 10·74, p = 0.014); higher number of CLS partners (HRs >10 partners [7/57]; 5 to 10 partners [5/60]; and 2 to 4 partners [11/293]: 14.04, 95% CI 4.11 to 47.98; 9.60, 95% CI 2.58 to 35.76; and 4.05, 95% CI 1.29 to 12.72, respectively, p < 0.001); CLS with HIV-positive partners (14/147; HR 6.45, 95% CI 3.15 to 13.22, p < 0.001), versatile CLS role (21/362; HR 6.35, 95% CI 2.18 to 18.51, p < 0.001), group sex (64/500; HR 8.81, 95% CI 3.07 to 25.24, p < 0.001), sex for drugs/money (4/55, HR 3.27, 95% CI 1.14 to 9.38, p = 0.027) (all in previous 3 months); previous 12-month report of a bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnoses (21/440; HR 3.95, 95% CI 1.81 to 8.63, p < 0.001), and more than 10 new sexual partners (21/471, HRs 11 to 49, 50 to 99, and >100 new partners: 3.17, 95% CI 1.39 to 7.26; 4.40, 95% CI 1.35 to 14.29; and 4.84, 95% CI 1.05 to 22.4, respectively, p < 0.001). Results were broadly consistent for time-updated analysis (n = 622 men). The study's main limitation is that men may not be representative of the broader GBMSM population in England.Conclusions: We observed a substantial decline in HIV incidence from 2013 to 2019 among GBMSM attending sexual health clinics. Injection drug use, chemsex use, and measures of high-risk sexual behaviour were strongly associated with incident HIV. Progress towards zero new infections could be achieved if combination HIV prevention including Test and Treat strategies and routine commissioning of a PrEP programme continues across the UK and reaches all at-risk populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, many healthcare facilities have suffered from shortages in medical resources, particularly in Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). In this paper, we propose a game-theoretic approach to schedule PPE orders among healthcare facilities. In this PPE game, each independent healthcare facility optimises its own storage utilisation in order to keep its PPE cost at a minimum. Such a model can reduce peak demand considerably when applied to a variable PPE consumption profile. Experiments conducted for NHS England regions using actual data confirm that the challenge of securing PPE supply during disasters such as COVID-19 can be eased if proper stock management procedures are adopted. These procedures can include early stockpiling, increasing storage capacities and implementing measures that can prolong the time period between successive infection waves, such as social distancing measures. Simulation results suggest that the provision of PPE dedicated storage space can be a viable solution to avoid straining PPE supply chains in case a second wave of COVID-19 infections occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Specialist sexual assault services, which collect forensic evidence and offer holistic healthcare to people following sexual assault, have been established internationally. In England, these services are called sexual assault referral centres (SARCs). Mental health and substance misuse problems are common among SARC attendees, but little is known about how SARCs should address these needs. This review aims to seek and synthesise evidence regarding approaches to identification and support for mental health and substance misuse problems in SARCs and corresponding services internationally; empirical evidence regarding effective service models; and stakeholders' views and policy recommendations about optimal SARC practice. Methods: A systematic review was undertaken. PsycINFO, MEDLINE, IBSS and CINAHL were searched from 1975 to August 2018. A web-based search up to December 2018 was also conducted to identify government and expert guidelines on SARCs. Quality assessment and narrative synthesis were conducted. Results: We included 107 papers. We found that identification based on clinical judgement, supportive counselling and referral to other services without active follow-up were the most common approaches. Evaluations of interventions for post-rape psychopathology in attendees of sexual assault services provided mixed evidence of moderate quality. Very little evidence was found regarding interventions or support for substance misuse. Stakeholders emphasised the importance of accessibility, flexibility, continuity of care, in-house psychological support, staff trained in mental health as well as specialist support for LGBT groups and people with learning difficulties. Guidelines suggested that SARCs should assess for mental health and substance misuse and provide in-house emotional support, but the extent and nature of support were not clarified. Both stakeholders and guidelines recommended close partnership between sexual assault services and local counselling services. Conclusions: This review suggests that there is big variation in the mental health and substance misuse provision both across and within different sexual assault service models. We found no robust evidence about how sexual assault services can achieve good mental health and substance misuse outcomes for service users. Clearer guidance for service planners and commissioners, informed by robust evidence about optimal service organisations and pathways, is required. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018119706 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agitation is common in people living with dementia especially at the end of life. We examined how staff interpreted agitation behavior in people with dementia nearing end of life, how this may influence their responses and its impact on the quality of care. Ethnographic study. Structured and semi-structured non-participant observations (referred to subsequently in this paper as "structured observations") of people living with dementia nearing the end of life in hospital and care homes (south-east England) and in-depth interviews with staff, conducted August 2015-March 2017. Three data sources: 1) detailed field notes, 2) observations using a structured tool and checklist for behaviors classed as agitation and staff and institutional responses, 3) staff semi-structured qualitative interviews. We calculated the time participants were agitated and described staff responses. Data sources were analyzed separately, developed continuously and relationally during the study and synthesized where appropriate. We identified two main 'ideal types' of staff explanatory models for agitation: In the first, staff attribute agitated behaviors to the person's "moral judgement", making them prone to rejecting or punitive responses. In the second staff adopt a more "needs-based" approach in which agitation behaviors are regarded as meaningful and managed with proactive and investigative approaches. These different approaches appear to have significant consequences for the timing, frequency and quality of staff response. While these models may overlap they tend to reflect distinct organizational resources and values. Care worker knowledge about agitation is not enough, and staff need organizational support to care better for people living with dementia towards end of life. Positional theory may help to explain much of the cultural-structural context that produces staff disengagement from people with dementia, offering insights on how agitation behavior is reframed by some staff as dangerous. Such behavior may be associated with low-resource institutions with minimal staff training where the personhood of staff may be neglected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of accounting for social and behavioural processes when studying public health emergencies has been well-recognised. For infectious disease outbreaks in particular, several methods of incorporating individual behaviour have been put forward, but very few are based on established psychological frameworks. In this paper, we develop a decision framework based on the COM-B model of behaviour change to investigate the impact of individual decision-making on public health outcomes. We demonstrate the application of our decision framework in a proof-of-concept case study based on the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic in the UK. The National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS) was set up in England during the pandemic as a means to provide antiviral (AV) treatment to clinically ill patients with influenza-like illness, via telephone calls or internet screening, thereby averting the need to see a doctor. The evaluated patients based on a clinical algorithm and authorised AV drugs for collection via community collection points. We applied our behavioural framework to evaluate the influence of human behaviour on AV collection rates, and subsequently to identify interventions that could help improve AV collection rates. Our model was validated against empirically collected pandemic data from 2009 in the UK. We also performed a sensitivity analysis to identify potentially effective interventions by varying model parameters. Using our behavioural framework in a proof-of-concept case study, we found that interventions geared towards increasing people's 'Capability' and 'Opportunity' are likely to result in increased AV collection, potentially resulting in fewer influenza-related hospitalisations and deaths. We note that important behavioural data from public health emergencies are largely scarce. Insights obtained from models such as ours can, not only be very useful in designing healthcare interventions, but also inform future data collection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patient and public involvement (PPI) is a requirement for UK health and social care research funding. Evidence for how best to implement PPI in research programmes, such as National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaborations for Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRCs), remains limited. This paper reports findings from an action research (AR) project called IMPRESS, which aims to strengthen PPI within CLAHRC East of England (EoE). IMPRESS combines AR with Normalisation Process Theory (NPT) to explore PPI within diverse case study projects, identifying actions to implement, test and refine to further embed PPI. Methods: We purposively selected CLAHRC EoE case study projects for in-depth analysis of PPI using NPT. Data were generated from project PPI documentation, semi-structured qualitative interviews with researchers and PPI contributors and focus groups. Transcripts and documents were subjected to abductive thematic analysis and triangulation within case. Systematic across case comparison of themes was undertaken with findings and implications refined through stakeholder consultation. Results: We interviewed 24 researchers and 13 PPI contributors and analysed 28 documents from 10 case studies. Three focus groups were held: two with researchers (n = 4 and n = 6) and one with PPI contributors (n = 5). Findings detail to what extent projects made sense of PPI, bought in to PPI, operationalised PPI and appraised it, thus identifying barriers and enablers to fully embedded PPI. Conclusion: Combining NPT with AR allows us to assess the embeddedness of PPI within projects and programme, to inform specific local action and report broader conceptual lessons for PPI knowledge and practice informing the development of an action framework for embedding PPI in research programmes. To embed PPI within similar programmes teams, professionals, disciplines and institutions should be recognised as variably networked into existing PPI support. Further focus and research is needed on sharing PPI learning and supporting innovation in PPI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the centrality of regions in social movements, politics and public administration, here we aim to quantitatively study regional identity, cross-region communication and sentiment. This paper presents a new methodology to study social interaction within and between social-geographic regions, and then applies the methodology to a case study of England and Wales. We use a social network, built from geo-located Twitter data, to identify contiguous geographical regions with a shared social identity and then investigate patterns of communication within and between them. In contrast to other approaches (e.g. using phone call data records or online friendship networks), use of Twitter data provides message contents as well as social connections. This allows us to investigate not only the volume of communication between locations, but also the sentiment and vocabulary used in the messages. For example, our case study shows: a significant dialect difference between England and Wales; that regions tend to be more positive about themselves than about others, with the South being more ‘self-regarding’ than the North; and that people talk politics much more between regions than within. This study demonstrates how social media can be used to quantify regional identity and inter-region communications and sentiment, exposing these previously hard-to-observe geographic concepts to analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthworms are primary candidates for national soil health monitoring as they are ecosystem engineers that benefit both food production and ecosystem services associated with soil security. Supporting farmers to monitor soil health could help to achieve the policy aspiration of sustainable soils by 2030 in England; however, little is known about how to overcome participation barriers, appropriate methodologies (practical, cost-effective, usefulness) or training needs. This paper presents the results from a pilot #60minworms study which mobilised farmers to assess over >1300 ha farmland soils in spring 2018. The results interpretation framework is based on the presence of earthworms from each of the three ecological groups at each observation (20 x 20 cm x 20 cm pit) and spatially across a field (10 soil pits). Results showed that most fields have basic earthworm presence and abundance, but 42% fields may be over-worked as indicated by absence/rarity of epigeic and/or anecic earthworms. Tillage had a negative impact (p < 0.05) on earthworm populations and organic matter management did not mitigate tillage impacts. In terms of farmer participation, Twitter and Farmers Weekly magazine were highly effective channels for recruitment. Direct feedback from participants included excellent scores in trust, value and satisfaction of the protocol (e.g. 100% would do the test again) and 57% would use their worm survey results to change their soil management practices. A key training need in terms of earthworm identification skills was reported. The trade-off between data quality, participation rates and fieldwork costs suggests there is potential to streamline the protocol further to #30minworms (5 pits), incurring farmer fieldwork costs of approximately £1.48 ha-1. At national scales, £14 million pounds across 4.7 M ha-1 in fieldwork costs per survey could be saved by farmer participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large-scale multiple surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks has been in operation in England and Wales since the early 1990s. Changes to the statistical algorithm at the heart of the system were proposed and the purpose of this paper is to compare two new algorithms with the original algorithm. Test data to evaluate performance are created from weekly counts of the number of cases of each of more than 2000 diseases over a twenty-year period. The time series of each disease is separated into one series giving the baseline (background) disease incidence and a second series giving disease outbreaks. One series is shifted forward by twelve months and the two are then recombined, giving a realistic series in which it is known where outbreaks have been added. The metrics used to evaluate performance include a scoring rule that appropriately balances sensitivity against specificity and is sensitive to variation in probabilities near 1. In the context of disease surveillance, a scoring rule can be adapted to reflect the size of outbreaks and this was done. Results indicate that the two new algorithms are comparable to each other and better than the algorithm they were designed to replace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For pilot or experimental employment programme results to apply beyond their test bed, researchers must select ‘clusters’ (i.e. the job centres delivering the new intervention) that are reasonably representative of the whole territory. More specifically, this requirement must account for conditions that could artificially inflate the effect of a programme, such as the fluidity of the local labour market or the performance of the local job centre. Failure to achieve representativeness results in Cluster Sampling Bias (CSB). This paper makes three contributions to the literature. Theoretically, it approaches the notion of CSB as a human behaviour. It offers a comprehensive theory, whereby researchers with limited resources and conflicting priorities tend to oversample ‘effect-enhancing’ clusters when piloting a new intervention. Methodologically, it advocates for a ‘narrow and deep’ scope, as opposed to the ‘wide and shallow’ scope, which has prevailed so far. The PILOT-2 dataset was developed to test this idea. Empirically, it provides evidence on the prevalence of CSB. In conditions similar to the PILOT-2 case study, investigators (1) do not sample clusters with a view to maximise generalisability; (2) do not oversample ‘effect-enhancing’ clusters; (3) consistently oversample some clusters, including those with higher-than-average client caseloads; and (4) report their sampling decisions in an inconsistent and generally poor manner. In conclusion, although CSB is prevalent, it is still unclear whether it is intentional and meant to mislead stakeholders about the expected effect of the intervention or due to higher-level constraints or other considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To compare expert assessment with bibliometric indicators as tools to assess the quality and importance of scientific research papers. Methods and Materials: Shortly after their publication in 2005, the quality and importance of a cohort of nearly 700 Wellcome Trust (WT) associated research papers were assessed by expert reviewers; each paper was reviewed by two WT expert reviewers. After 3 years, we compared this initial assessment with other measures of paper impact. Results: Shortly after publication, 62 (9%) of the 687 research papers were determined to describe at least a 'major addition to knowledge' -6 were thought to be 'landmark' papers. At an aggregate level, after 3 years, there was a strong positive association between expert assessment and impact as measured by number of citations and F1000 rating. However, there were some important exceptions indicating that bibliometric measures may not be sufficient in isolation as measures of research quality and importance, and especially not for assessing single papers or small groups of research publications. Conclusion: When attempting to assess the quality and importance of research papers, we found that sole reliance on bibliometric indicators would have led us to miss papers containing important results as judged by expert review. In particular, some papers that were highly rated by experts were not highly cited during the first three years after publication. Tools that link expert peer reviews of research paper quality and importance to more quantitative indicators, such as citation analysis would be valuable additions to the field of research assessment and evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smoking has been identified as the second greatest risk factor for global death and disability and has impacts on the oral cavity from aesthetic changes to fatal diseases such as oral cancer. The paper presents a secondary analysis of the National Adult Dental Health Survey (2009). The analysis used descriptive statistics, bivariate analyses and logistic regression models to report the self-reported oral health status and dental attendance of smokers and non-smokers in England. Of the 9,657 participants, 21% reported they were currently smoking. When compared with smokers; non-smokers were more likely to report ‘good oral health’ (75% versus 57% respectively, p<0.05). Smokers were twice as likely to attend the dentist symptomatically (OR = 2.27, CI = 2.02–2.55) compared with non-smoker regardless the deprivation status. Smokers were more likely to attend symptomatically in the most deprived quintiles (OR = 1.99, CI = 1.57–2.52) and perceive they had poorer oral health (OR = 1.77, CI = 1.42–2.20). The present research is consistent with earlier sub-national research and should be considered when planning early diagnosis and management strategies for smoking-related conditions, considering the potential impact dental teams might have on smoking rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Enhanced Matching System (EMS) is a probabilistic record linkage program developed by the tuberculosis section at Public Health England to match data for individuals across two datasets. This paper outlines how EMS works and investigates its accuracy for linkage across public health datasets. Methods: EMS is a configurable Microsoft SQL Server database program. To examine the accuracy of EMS, two public health databases were matched using National Health Service (NHS) numbers as a gold standard unique identifier. Probabilistic linkage was then performed on the same two datasets without inclusion of NHS number. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to examine the effect of varying matching process parameters. Results: Exact matching using NHS number between two datasets (containing 5931 and 1759 records) identified 1071 matched pairs. EMS probabilistic linkage identified 1068 record pairs. The sensitivity of probabilistic linkage was calculated as 99.5% (95%CI: 98.9, 99.8), specificity 100.0% (95%CI: 99.9, 100.0), positive predictive value 99.8% (95%CI: 99.3, 100.0), and negative predictive value 99.9% (95%CI: 99.8, 100.0). Probabilistic matching was most accurate when including address variables and using the automatically generated threshold for determining links with manual review. Conclusion: With the establishment of national electronic datasets across health and social care, EMS enables previously unanswerable research questions to be tackled with confidence in the accuracy of the linkage process. In scenarios where a small sample is being matched into a very large database (such as national records of hospital attendance) then, compared to results presented in this analysis, the positive predictive value or sensitivity may drop according to the prevalence of matches between databases. Despite this possible limitation, probabilistic linkage has great potential to be used where exact matching using a common identifier is not possible, including in low-income settings, and for vulnerable groups such as homeless populations, where the absence of unique identifiers and lower data quality has historically hindered the ability to identify individuals across datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To extend existing research on the US health disadvantage relative to Europe by studying the relationships of disability with age from midlife to old age in the US and four European regions (England/Northern and Western Europe/Southern Europe/Eastern Europe) including their wealth-related differences, using a flexible statistical approach to model the age-functions. Methods: We used data from three studies on aging, with nationally representative samples of adults aged 50 to 85 from 15 countries (N = 48225): the US-American Health and Retirement Study (HRS), the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Outcomes were mobility limitations and limitations in instrumental activities of daily living. We applied fractional polynomials of age to determine best fitting functional forms for age on disability in each region, while controlling for socio-demographic characteristics and important risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, smoking, physical inactivity). Results: Findings showed high levels of disability in the US with small age-related changes between 50 and 85. Levels of disability were generally lower in Eastern Europe, followed by England and Southern Europe and lowest in Northern and Western Europe. In these latter countries age-related increases of disability, though, were steeper than in the US, especially in Eastern and Southern Europe. For all countries and at all ages, disability levels were higher among adults with low wealth compared to those with high wealth, with largest wealth-related differences among those in early old age in the USA. Conclusions: This paper illustrates considerable variations of disability and its relationship with age. It supports the hypothesis that less developed social policies and more pronounced socioeconomic inequalities are related to higher levels of disability and an earlier onset of disability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Public health provision in England is undergoing dramatic changes. Currently established partnerships are thus likely to be significantly disrupted by the radical reforms outlined in the Public Health White Paper. We therefore explored the process of partnership working in public health, in order to better understand the potential opportunities and threats associated with the proposed changes. Methodology/Principal Findings: 70 participants took part in an in-depth qualitative study involving 40 semi-structured interviews and three focus group discussions. Participants were senior and middle grade public health decision makers working in Primary Care Trusts, Local Authorities, Department of Health, academia, General Practice and Hospital Trusts and the third sector in England. Despite mature arrangements for partnership working in many areas, and much support for joint working in principle, many important barriers exist. These include cultural issues such as a lack of shared values and language, the inherent complexity of intersectoral collaboration for public health, and macro issues including political and resource constraints. There is particular uncertainty and anxiety about the future of joint working relating to the availability and distribution of scarce and diminishing financial resources. There is also the concern that existing effective collaborative networks may be completely disrupted as the proposed changes unfold. The extent to which the proposed reforms might mitigate or potentiate these issues remains unclear. However the threats currently remain more salient than opportunities. Conclusions: The current re-organisation of public health offers real opportunity to address some of the barriers to partnership working identified in this study. However, significant threats exist. These include the breakup of established networks, and the risk of cost cutting on effective public health interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]