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The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we explore the problem of establishing a network among the stocks of a market at high frequency level and give an application to program trading. Our work uses high frequency data from the National Stock Exchange, India, for the year 2014. To begin, we analyse the spectrum of the correlation matrix to establish the presence of linear relations amongst the stock returns. A comparison of correlations with pairwise mutual information shows the further existence of non-linear relations which are not captured by correlation. We also see that the non-linear relations are more pronounced at the high frequency level in comparison to the daily returns used in earlier work. We provide two applications of this approach. First, we construct minimal spanning trees for the stock network based on mutual information and study their topology. The year 2014 saw the conduct of general elections in India and the data allows us to explore their impact on aspects of the network, such as the scale-free property and sectorial clusters. Second, having established the presence of non-linear relations, we would like to be able to exploit them. Previous authors have suggested that peripheral stocks in the network would make good proxies for the Markowitz portfolio but with a much smaller number of stocks. We show that peripheral stocks selected using mutual information perform significantly better than ones selected using correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty affects many people, but the ramifications and impacts affect all aspects of society. Information about the incidence of poverty is therefore an important parameter of the population for policy analysis and decision making. In order to provide specific, targeted solutions when addressing poverty disadvantage small area statistics are needed. Surveys are typically designed and planned to produce reliable estimates of population characteristics of interest mainly at higher geographic area such as national and state level. Sample sizes are usually not large enough to provide reliable estimates for disaggregated analysis. In many instances estimates are required for areas of the population for which the survey providing the data was unplanned. Then, for areas with small sample sizes, direct survey estimation of population characteristics based only on the data available from the particular area tends to be unreliable. This paper describes an application of small area estimation (SAE) approach to improve the precision of estimates of poverty incidence at district level in the State of Bihar in India by linking data from the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey 2011–12 of NSSO and the Population Census 2011. The results show that the district level estimates generated by SAE method are more precise and representative. In contrast, the direct survey estimates based on survey data alone are less stable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Migrant labourers living in the slums of urban and industrial patches across India make up a key sub-population so far controlling Tuberculosis (TB) in the country is concerned. This is because many TB patients from these communities- remain under reached by the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP) of India. This marginalized community usually seeks early-stage healthcare from “friendly neighbourhood” non-formal health providers (NFHPs). Because, RNTCP has limited capacity to involve the NFHPs, an implementation research project was conceived, whereby an external partner would engage with the NFHPs to enable them to identify early TB symptomatics from this key sub-population who would be then tested using Xpert MTB/RIF technology. Diagnosed TB cases among them would be referred promptly to RNTCP for treatment. This paper aimed to describe the project and its impact. Methods: Adopting a quasi-experimental before-after design, four RNTCP units from two major urban-industrial areas of Odisha were selected for intervention, which spanned five quarters and covered 151,400 people, of which 30% were slum-dwelling migrants. Two similar units comprised the control population. The hypothesis was, reaching the under reached in the intervention area through NFHPs would increase TB notification from these traditionally under-notifying units. RNTCP notification data during intervention was compared with pre-intervention era, adjusted for contemporaneous changes in control population Results: The project detected 488 Xpert+ TB cases, of whom 466 were administered RNTCP treatment. This translated into notification of additional 198 new bacteriologically positive cases to RNTCP, a 30% notification surge, after adjustment for 2% decline in control. This meant an average quarterly increase in notification of 41.20(20.08, 62.31; p<0.001) cases. The increase was immediate, evident from the rise in level in the time series analysis by 50.42(10.28, 90.55; p = 0.02) cases. Conclusion: Engagement with NFHPs contributed to an increase in TB notification to RNTCP from key under reached, slum-dwelling migrant populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have attempted to reproduce the results in Development and validation of a deep learning algorithm for detection of diabetic retinopathy in retinal fundus photographs, published in JAMA 2016; 316(22), using publicly available data sets. We re-implemented the main method in the original study since the source code is not available. The original study used non-public fundus images from EyePACS and three hospitals in India for training. We used a different EyePACS data set from Kaggle. The original study used the benchmark data set Messidor-2 to evaluate the algorithm's performance. We used another distribution of the Messidor-2 data set, since the original data set is no longer available. In the original study, ophthalmologists re-graded all images for diabetic retinopathy, macular edema, and image gradability. We have one diabetic retinopathy grade per image for our data sets, and we assessed image gradability ourselves. We were not able to reproduce the original study's results with publicly available data. Our algorithm's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.951 (95% CI, 0.947-0.956) on the Kaggle EyePACS test set and 0.853 (95% CI, 0.835-0.871) on Messidor-2 did not come close to the reported AUC of 0.99 on both test sets in the original study. This may be caused by the use of a single grade per image, or different data. This study shows the challenges of reproducing deep learning method results, and the need for more replication and reproduction studies to validate deep learning methods, especially for medical image analysis. Our source code and instructions are available at: . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays a fundamental role in irrigated agriculture. The objective of this study is to simulate monthly ET0 at a meteorological station in India using a new method, an improved support vector machine (SVM) based on the cuckoo algorithm (CA), which is known as SVM-CA. Maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine hours were selected as inputs for the models used in the simulation. The results of the simulation using SVM-CA were compared with those from experimental models, genetic programming (GP), model tree (M5T) and the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The achieved results demonstrate that the proposed SVM-CA model is able to simulate ET0 more accurately than the GP, M5T and ANFIS models. Two major indicators, namely, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), indicated that the SVM-CA outperformed the other methods with respective reductions of 5–15% and 5–17% compared with the GP model, 12–21% and 10–22% compared with the M5T model, and 7–15% and 5–18% compared with the ANFIS model, respectively. Therefore, the proposed SVM-CA model has high potential for accurate simulation of monthly ET0 values compared with the other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commercial surrogacy in emerging countries such as India is often associated with exploitation of vulnerable women, the assumption being that it is performed by poor and uneducated women for rich intended parents. However, the hypothesis that surrogates are poor women has rarely been confronted with field data. The objective was to compare the socioeconomic characteristics of Indian surrogates interviewed in social studies with those of Indian women in the general population in order to provide preliminary data on whether surrogates have a specific profile and are indeed disadvantaged compared with their counterparts. The study analyzes the data from four cross-sectional studies carried out in India among surrogates between 2006 and 2014. Surrogates were recruited through clinics, agencies and agents. Data were collected during face-to-face interviews. The resulting convenience sample included 96 Indian surrogates. Their sociodemographic characteristics were compared with those of the general population extracted from Indian national surveys. The surrogates interviewed had their first child at a younger age than women in the general population, but they tended to have a smaller family. Their social situation tended to be better than that of the general population in terms of education, employment and family income. These results provide first empirical evidence moderating the common assumption that Indian surrogates are the poorest and least educated women. This does not mean, however, that exploitation does not exist. More studies are needed to confirm these results and to explore the issue in new international destinations for surrogacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most of the epidemiological studies that have examined the detrimental effects of ambient hot and cold temperatures on human health have been conducted in high-income countries. In India, the limited evidence on temperature and health risks has focused mostly on the effects of heat waves and has mostly been from small scale studies. Here, we quantify heat and cold effects on mortality in India using a nationally representative study of the causes of death and daily temperature data for 2001-2013.Methods and Findings: We applied distributed-lag nonlinear models with case-crossover models to assess the effects of heat and cold on all medical causes of death for all ages from birth (n = 411,613) as well as on stroke (n = 19,753), ischaemic heart disease (IHD) (n = 40,003), and respiratory diseases (n = 23,595) among adults aged 30-69. We calculated the attributable risk fractions by mortality cause for extremely cold (0.4 to 13.8°C), moderately cold (13.8°C to cause-specific minimum mortality temperatures), moderately hot (cause-specific minimum mortality temperatures to 34.2°C), and extremely hot temperatures (34.2 to 39.7°C). We further calculated the temperature-attributable deaths using the United Nations' death estimates for India in 2015. Mortality from all medical causes, stroke, and respiratory diseases showed excess risks at moderately cold temperature and hot temperature. For all examined causes, moderately cold temperature was estimated to have higher attributable risks (6.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI) 1.1 to 11.1] for all medical deaths, 27.2% [11.4 to 40.2] for stroke, 9.7% [3.7 to 15.3] for IHD, and 6.5% [3.5 to 9.2] for respiratory diseases) than extremely cold, moderately hot, and extremely hot temperatures. In 2015, 197,000 (121,000 to 259,000) deaths from stroke, IHD, and respiratory diseases at ages 30-69 years were attributable to moderately cold temperature, which was 12- and 42-fold higher than totals from extremely cold and extremely hot temperature, respectively. The main limitation of this study was the coarse spatial resolution of the temperature data, which may mask microclimate effects.Conclusions: Public health interventions to mitigate temperature effects need to focus not only on extremely hot temperatures but also moderately cold temperatures. Future absolute totals of temperature-related deaths are likely to depend on the large absolute numbers of people exposed to both extremely hot and moderately cold temperatures. Similar large-scale and nationally representative studies are required in other low- and middle-income countries to better understand the impact of future temperature changes on cause-specific mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The World Health Organization recommends participatory learning and action (PLA) in women's groups to improve maternal and newborn health, particularly in rural settings with low access to health services. There have been calls to understand the pathways through which this community intervention may affect neonatal mortality. We examined the effect of women's groups on key antenatal, delivery, and postnatal behaviours in order to understand pathways to mortality reduction.Methods and Findings: We conducted a meta-analysis using data from 7 cluster-randomised controlled trials that took place between 2001 and 2012 in rural India (2 trials), urban India (1 trial), rural Bangladesh (2 trials), rural Nepal (1 trial), and rural Malawi (1 trial), with the number of participants ranging between 6,125 and 29,901 live births. Behavioural outcomes included appropriate antenatal care, facility delivery, use of a safe delivery kit, hand washing by the birth attendant prior to delivery, use of a sterilised instrument to cut the umbilical cord, immediate wrapping of the newborn after delivery, delayed bathing of the newborn, early initiation of breastfeeding, and exclusive breastfeeding. We used 2-stage meta-analysis techniques to estimate the effect of the women's group intervention on behavioural outcomes. In the first stage, we used random effects models with individual patient data to assess the effect of groups on outcomes separately for the different trials. In the second stage of the meta-analysis, random effects models were applied using summary-level estimates calculated in the first stage of the analysis. To determine whether behaviour change was related to group attendance, we used random effects models to assess associations between outcomes and the following categories of group attendance and allocation: women attending a group and allocated to the intervention arm; women not attending a group but allocated to the intervention arm; and women allocated to the control arm. Overall, women's groups practising PLA improved behaviours during and after home deliveries, including the use of safe delivery kits (odds ratio [OR] 2.92, 95% CI 2.02-4.22; I2 = 63.7%, 95% CI 4.4%-86.2%), use of a sterile blade to cut the umbilical cord (1.88, 1.25-2.82; 67.6%, 16.1%-87.5%), birth attendant washing hands prior to delivery (1.87, 1.19-2.95; 79%, 53.8%-90.4%), delayed bathing of the newborn for at least 24 hours (1.47, 1.09-1.99; 68.0%, 29.2%-85.6%), and wrapping the newborn within 10 minutes of delivery (1.27, 1.02-1.60; 0.0%, 0%-79.2%). Effects were partly dependent on the proportion of pregnant women attending groups. We did not find evidence of effects on uptake of antenatal care (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.77-1.38; I2 = 86.3%, 95% CI 73.8%-92.8%), facility delivery (1.02, 0.93-1.12; 21.4%, 0%-65.8%), initiating breastfeeding within 1 hour (1.08, 0.85-1.39; 76.6%, 50.9%-88.8%), or exclusive breastfeeding for 6 weeks after delivery (1.18, 0.93-1.48; 72.9%, 37.8%-88.2%). The main limitation of our analysis is the high degree of heterogeneity for effects on most behaviours, possibly due to the limited number of trials involving women's groups and context-specific effects.Conclusions: This meta-analysis suggests that women's groups practising PLA improve key behaviours on the pathway to neonatal mortality, with the strongest evidence for home care behaviours and practices during home deliveries. A lack of consistency in improved behaviours across all trials may reflect differences in local priorities, capabilities, and the responsiveness of health services. Future research could address the mechanisms behind how PLA improves survival, in order to adapt this method to improve maternal and newborn health in different contexts, as well as improve other outcomes across the continuum of care for women, children, and adolescents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objective: Understanding medical students’ motivation to select medical studies is particularly salient to inform practice and policymaking in countries—such as India—where shortage of medical personnel poses crucial and chronical challenges to healthcare systems. This study aims to develop and validate a questionnaire to assess the motivation of medical students to select medical studies. Methods: A Motivation for Selection of Medical Study (MSMS) questionnaire was developed using extensive literature review followed by Delphi technique. The scale consisted of 12 items, 5 measuring intrinsic dimensions of motivations and 7 measuring extrinsic dimensions. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), validity, reliability and data quality checks were conducted on a sample of 636 medical students from six medical colleges of three North Indian states. Results: The MSMS questionnaire consisted of 3 factors (subscales) and 8 items. The three principal factors that emerged after EFA were the scientific factor (e.g. research opportunities and the ability to use new cutting edge technologies), the societal factor (e.g. job security) and the humanitarian factor (e.g. desire to help others). The CFA conducted showed goodness-of-fit indices supporting the 3-factor model. Conclusion: The three extracted factors cut across the traditional dichotomy between intrinsic and extrinsic motivation and uncover a novel three-faceted motivation construct based on scientific factors, societal expectations and humanitarian needs. This validated instrument can be used to evaluate the motivational factors of medical students to choose medical study in India and similar settings and constitutes a powerful tool for policymakers to design measures able to increase selection of medical curricula. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Particulate pollution has important consequences for human health, and is an issue of global concern. Outdoor air pollution has become a cause for alarm in India in particular because recent data suggest that ambient pollution levels in Indian cities are some of the highest in the world. We study the number of particles between 0.5μm and 2.5μm indoors while using affordable air purifiers in the highly polluted city of Delhi. Though substantial reductions in indoor number concentrations are observed during air purifier use, indoor air quality while using an air purifier is frequently worse than in cities with moderate pollution, and often worse than levels observed even in polluted cities. When outdoor pollution levels are higher, on average, indoor pollution levels while using an air purifier are also higher. Moreover, the ratio of indoor air quality during air purifier use to two comparison measures of air quality without an air purifier are also positively correlated with outdoor pollution levels, suggesting that as ambient air quality worsens there are diminishing returns to improvements in indoor air quality during air purifier use. The findings of this study indicate that although the most affordable air purifiers currently available are associated with significant improvements in the indoor environment, they are not a replacement for public action in regions like Delhi. Although private solutions may serve as a stopgap, reducing ambient air pollution must be a public health and policy priority in any region where air pollution is as high as Delhi’s during the winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the impact of religious identity and village-level religious fragmentation on behavior in Tullock contests. We report on a series of two-player Tullock contest experiments conducted on a sample of 516 Hindu and Muslim participants in rural West Bengal, India. Our treatments are the identity of the two players and the degree of religious fragmentation in the village where subjects reside. Our main finding is that the effect of social identity is small and inconsistent across the two religious groups in our study. While we find small but statistically significant results in line with our hypotheses in the Hindu sample, we find no statistically significant effects in the Muslim sample. This is in contrast to evidence from Chakravarty et al. (2016), who report significant differences in cooperation levels in prisoners’ dilemma and stag hunt games, both in terms of village composition and identity. We attribute this to the fact that social identity may have a more powerful effect on cooperation than on conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Spontaneous or voluntary reporting of suspected adverse drug reactions (ADRs) is one of the vital roles of all health professionals. In India, under-reporting of ADRs by health professionals is recognized as one of the leading causes of poor ADR signal detection. Therefore, reviewing the literature can provide a better understanding of the status of knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) of Pharmacovigilance (PV) activities by health professionals. Methods: A systematic review was performed through Pubmed, Scopus, Embase and Google Scholar scientific databases. Studies pertaining to KAP of PV and ADR reporting by Indian health professionals between January 2011 and July 2015 were included in a meta-analysis. Results: A total of 28 studies were included in the systematic review and 18 of them were selected for meta-analysis. Overall, 55.6% (95% CI 44.4–66.9; p<0.001) of the population studied were not aware of the existence of the Pharmacovigilance Programme in India (PvPI), and 31.9% (95% CI 16.3–47.4; p<0.001) thought that "all drugs available in the market are safe". Furthermore, 28.7% (95% CI 16.4–40.9; p<0.001) of them were not interested in reporting ADRs and 74.5%, (95% CI 67.9–81.9; p<0.001) never reported any ADR to PV centers. Conclusion: There was an enormous gap of KAP towards PV and ADR reporting, particularly PV practice in India. There is therefore an urgent need for educational awareness, simplification of the ADR reporting process, and implementation of imperative measures to practice PV among healthcare professionals. In order to understand the PV status, PvPI should procedurally assess the KAP of health professionals PV activities in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Emergency referral services (ERS) are being strengthened in India to improve access for institutional delivery. We evaluated a publicly financed and privately delivered model of ERS in Punjab state, India, to assess its extent and pattern of utilization, impact on institutional delivery, quality and unit cost. Methods: Data for almost 0.4 million calls received from April 2012 to March 2013 was analysed to assess the extent and pattern of utilization. Segmented linear regression was used to analyse month-wise data on number of institutional deliveries in public sector health facilities from 2008 to 2013. We inspected ambulances in 2 districts against the Basic Life Support (BLS) standards. Timeliness of ERS was assessed for determining quality. Finally, we computed economic cost of implementing ERS from a health system perspective. Results: On an average, an ambulance transported 3–4 patients per day. Poor and those farther away from the health facility had a higher likelihood of using the ambulance. Although the ERS had an abrupt positive effect on increasing the institutional deliveries in the unadjusted model, there was no effect on institutional delivery after adjustment for autocorrelation. Cost of operating the ambulance service was INR 1361 (USD 22.7) per patient transported or INR 21 (USD 0.35) per km travelled. Conclusion: Emergency referral services in Punjab did not result in a significant change in public sector institutional deliveries. This could be due to high baseline coverage of institutional delivery and low barriers to physical access. Choice of interventions for reduction in Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) should be context-specific to have high value for resources spent. The ERS in Punjab needs improvement in terms of quality and reduction of cost to health system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The elimination of infectious diseases requires reducing transmission below a certain threshold. The Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) Elimination Initiative in Southeast Asia aims to reduce the annual VL incidence rate below 1 case per 10,000 inhabitants in endemic areas by 2015 via a combination of case management and vector control. Using a previously developed VL transmission model, we investigated transmission thresholds dependent on measures reducing the sand fly density either by killing sand flies (e.g., indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticidal nets) or by destroying breeding sites (e.g., environmental management). Model simulations suggest that elimination of VL is possible if the sand fly density can be reduced by 67% through killing sand flies, or if the number of breeding sites can be reduced by more than 79% through measures of environmental management. These results were compared to data from two recent cluster randomised controlled trials conducted in India, Nepal and Bangladesh showing a 72% reduction in sand fly density after indoor residual spraying, a 44% and 25% reduction through the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets and a 42% reduction after environmental management. Based on model predictions, we identified the parameters within the transmission cycle of VL that predominantly determine the prospects of intervention success. We suggest further research to refine model-based predictions into the elimination of VL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]