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Analyzing and predicting the trend of price fluctuation has been receiving more and more attention, as price risk has become the focus of risk control research in heating oil futures market. A novel time series prediction model combined with the complex network method is put forward in the paper. First of all, this paper counts the cumulative time interval of different nodes in the network, and fits its growth trend with the Fourier model. Then a novel price fluctuation prediction model is established based on the effective information such as some topology properties extracted from the network. The results show that the Fourier model can predict the emergence time of new nodes in the next stage, and the established price fluctuation prediction model can infer the names of nodes in the prediction interval, so as to determine the forward-looking behavior of price evolution. Besides, liken to the NAR neural network, the prediction results obtained by the proposed method also show superiority, which has important theoretical value and academic significance for early warning and prediction of price behavior in the heating oil futures market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing geological drilling hole images acquired by Axial View Panoramic Borehole Televiewer (APBT) is a key step to explore the geological structure in a geological exploration. Conventionally, the borehole images are examined by technicians, which is inefficient and subjective. In this paper, three dominant types of borehole-wall images on coal-rock mass structure, namely, border images, fracture images and intact rock mass images are mainly studied. The traditional image classification methods based on unified feature extraction algorithm and single classifier is not effect for the borehole images. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel two-stage classification approach to improve the classification performance of borehole images. In the first-stage classification, the border images are identified from three kinds of images based on texture features and gray-scale histograms features. For the remaining two types of images, in the second-stage classification, Gabor filter is first applied to segment the region of interest (ROI) (such as microfracture, absciss layer and horizontal cracks, etc.) and the central interference region. Then, using the same feature vector after eliminating the central interference region, fracture images are separated from intact rock mass images. We test our two-stage classification system with real borehole images. The results of experimental show that the two-stage classification method can effectively classify three major borehole-wall images with the correction rate of 95.55% in the first stage and 95% in the second stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leveraging smart metering solutions to support energy efficiency on the individual household level poses novel research challenges in monitoring usage and providing accurate load forecasting. Forecasting electricity usage is an especially important component that can provide intelligence to smart meters. In this paper, we propose an enhanced approach for load forecasting at the household level. The impacts of residents’ daily activities and appliance usages on the power consumption of the entire household are incorporated to improve the accuracy of the forecasting model. The contributions of this paper are threefold: (1) we addressed short-term electricity load forecasting for 24 hours ahead, not on the aggregate but on the individual household level, which fits into the Residential Power Load Forecasting (RPLF) methods; (2) for the forecasting, we utilized a household specific dataset of behaviors that influence power consumption, which was derived using segmentation and sequence mining algorithms; and (3) an extensive load forecasting study using different forecasting algorithms enhanced by the household activity patterns was undertaken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electroencephalogram (EEG) is a common base signal used to monitor brain activities and diagnose sleep disorders. Manual sleep stage scoring is a time-consuming task for sleep experts and is limited by inter-rater reliability. In this paper, we propose an automatic sleep stage annotation method called SleepEEGNet using a single-channel EEG signal. The SleepEEGNet is composed of deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to extract time-invariant features, frequency information, and a sequence to sequence model to capture the complex and long short-term context dependencies between sleep epochs and scores. In addition, to reduce the effect of the class imbalance problem presented in the available sleep datasets, we applied novel loss functions to have an equal misclassified error for each sleep stage while training the network. We evaluated the performance of the proposed method on different single-EEG channels (i.e., Fpz-Cz and Pz-Oz EEG channels) from the Physionet Sleep-EDF datasets published in 2013 and 2018. The evaluation results demonstrate that the proposed method achieved the best annotation performance compared to current literature, with an overall accuracy of 84.26%, a macro F1-score of 79.66% and κ = 0.79. Our developed model can be applied to other sleep EEG signals and aid the sleep specialists to arrive at an accurate diagnosis. The source code is available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antenna selection in Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) systems has attracted increasing attention due to the challenge of keeping a balance between communication performance and computational complexity. Recently, deep learning based methods have achieved promising performance in many application fields. This paper proposed a deep learning (DL) based antenna selection technique. First, we generated the label of training antenna systems by maximizing the channel capacity. Then, we adopted the deep convolutional neural network (CNN) on the channel matrices to explicitly exploit the massive latent cues of attenuation coefficients. Finally, we used the adopted CNN to assign the class label and then select the optimal antenna subset. Experimental results demonstrate that our method can achieve better performance than the state-of-the-art baselines for data-driven based antenna selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In general, the stock prices of the same industry have a similar trend, but those of different industries do not. When investing in stocks of different industries, one should select the optimal model from lots of trading models for each industry because any model may not be suitable for capturing the stock trends of all industries. However, the study has not been carried out at present. In this paper, firstly we select 424 S&P 500 index component stocks (SPICS) and 185 CSI 300 index component stocks (CSICS) as the research objects from 2010 to 2017, divide them into 9 industries such as finance and energy respectively. Secondly, we apply 12 widely used machine learning algorithms to generate stock trading signals in different industries and execute the back-testing based on the trading signals. Thirdly, we use a non-parametric statistical test to evaluate whether there are significant differences among the trading performance evaluation indicators (PEI) of different models in the same industry. Finally, we propose a series of rules to select the optimal models for stock investment of every industry. The analytical results on SPICS and CSICS show that we can find the optimal trading models for each industry based on the statistical tests and the rules. Most importantly, the PEI of the best algorithms can be significantly better than that of the benchmark index and “Buy and Hold” strategy. Therefore, the algorithms can be used for making profits from industry stock trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In palynology, the visual classification of pollen grains from different species is a hard task which is usually tackled by human operators using microscopes. Its complete automatization would save a high quantity of resources and provide valuable improvements especially for allergy-related information systems, but also for other application fields as paleoclimate reconstruction, quality control of honey based products, collection of evidences in criminal investigations or fabric dating and tracking. This paper presents three state-of-the-art deep learning classification methods applied to the recently published POLEN23E image dataset. The three methods make use of convolutional neural networks: the first one is strictly based on the idea of transfer learning, the second one is based on feature extraction and the third one represents a hybrid approach, combining transfer learning and feature extraction. The results from the three methods are indeed very good, reaching over 97% correct classification rates in images not previously seen by the models, where other authors reported around 70. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep learning techniques, e.g., Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), have been explosively applied to the research in the fields of information retrieval and natural language processing. However, few research efforts have addressed semantic indexing with deep learning. The use of semantic indexing in the biomedical literature has been limited for several reasons. For instance, MEDLINE citations contain a large number of semantic labels from automatically annotated MeSH terms, and for a great deal of the literature, only the information of the title and the abstract is readily available. In this paper, we propose a Boltzmann Convolutional neural network framework (B-CNN) for biomedicine semantic indexing. In our hybrid learning framework, the CNN can adaptively deal with features of documents that have sequence relationships, and can capture context information accordingly; the Deep Boltzmann Machine (DBM) merges global (the entity in each document) and local information through its training with undirected connections. Additionally, we have designed a hierarchical coarse to fine style indexing structure for learning and classifying documents, and a novel feature extension approach with word sequence embedding and Wikipedia categorization. Comparative experiments were conducted for semantic indexing of biomedical abstract documents; these experiments verified the encouraged performance of our B-CNN model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new method to reduce the computational cost when using Neural Networks as Language Models, during recognition, in some particular scenarios. It is based on a Neural Network that considers input contexts of different length in order to ease the use of a fallback mechanism together with the precomputation of softmax normalization constants for these inputs. The proposed approach is empirically validated, showing their capability to emulate lower order N-grams with a single Neural Network. A machine translation task shows that the proposed model constitutes a good solution to the normalization cost of the output softmax layer of Neural Networks, for some practical cases, without a significant impact in performance while improving the system speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses a chaos kernel function for the relevance vector machine (RVM) in EEG signal classification, which is an important component of Brain-Computer Interface (BCI). The novel kernel function has evolved from a chaotic system, which is inspired by the fact that human brain signals depict some chaotic characteristics and behaviors. By introducing the chaotic dynamics to the kernel function, the RVM will be enabled for higher classification capacity. The proposed method is validated within the framework of one versus one common spatial pattern (OVO-CSP) classifier to classify motor imagination (MI) of four movements in a public accessible dataset. To illustrate the performance of the proposed kernel function, Gaussian and Polynomial kernel functions are considered for comparison. Experimental results show that the proposed kernel function achieved higher accuracy than Gaussian and Polynomial kernel functions, which shows that the chaotic behavior consideration is helpful in the EEG signal classification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combining a deep neural network with fuzzy theory, this paper proposes an advertising click-through rate (CTR) prediction approach based on a fuzzy deep neural network (FDNN). In this approach, fuzzy Gaussian-Bernoulli restricted Boltzmann machine (FGBRBM) is first applied to input raw data from advertising datasets. Next, fuzzy restricted Boltzmann machine (FRBM) is used to construct the fuzzy deep belief network (FDBN) with the unsupervised method layer by layer. Finally, fuzzy logistic regression (FLR) is utilized for modeling the CTR. The experimental results show that the proposed FDNN model outperforms several baseline models in terms of both data representation capability and robustness in advertising click log datasets with noise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) realizes a two-way communication of electricity data through by interconnecting with a computer network as the core component of the smart grid. Meanwhile, it brings many new security threats and the traditional intrusion detection method can’t satisfy the security requirements of AMI. In this paper, an intrusion detection system based on Online Sequence Extreme Learning Machine (OS-ELM) is established, which is used to detecting the attack in AMI and carrying out the comparative analysis with other algorithms. Simulation results show that, compared with other intrusion detection methods, intrusion detection method based on OS-ELM is more superior in detection speed and accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a new automatic hyperparameter selection approach for determining the optimal network configuration (network structure and hyperparameters) for deep neural networks using particle swarm optimization (PSO) in combination with a steepest gradient descent algorithm. In the proposed approach, network configurations were coded as a set of real-number m-dimensional vectors as the individuals of the PSO algorithm in the search procedure. During the search procedure, the PSO algorithm is employed to search for optimal network configurations via the particles moving in a finite search space, and the steepest gradient descent algorithm is used to train the DNN classifier with a few training epochs (to find a local optimal solution) during the population evaluation of PSO. After the optimization scheme, the steepest gradient descent algorithm is performed with more epochs and the final solutions (pbest and gbest) of the PSO algorithm to train a final ensemble model and individual DNN classifiers, respectively. The local search ability of the steepest gradient descent algorithm and the global search capabilities of the PSO algorithm are exploited to determine an optimal solution that is close to the global optimum. We constructed several experiments on hand-written characters and biological activity prediction datasets to show that the DNN classifiers trained by the network configurations expressed by the final solutions of the PSO algorithm, employed to construct an ensemble model and individual classifier, outperform the random approach in terms of the generalization performance. Therefore, the proposed approach can be regarded an alternative tool for automatic network structure and parameter selection for deep neural networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we propose a new data mining algorithm, by which one can both capture the non-linearity in data and also find the best subset model. To produce an enhanced subset of the original variables, a preferred selection method should have the potential of adding a supplementary level of regression analysis that would capture complex relationships in the data via mathematical transformation of the predictors and exploration of synergistic effects of combined variables. The method that we present here has the potential to produce an optimal subset of variables, rendering the overall process of model selection more efficient. This algorithm introduces interpretable parameters by transforming the original inputs and also a faithful fit to the data. The core objective of this paper is to introduce a new estimation technique for the classical least square regression framework. This new automatic variable transformation and model selection method could offer an optimal and stable model that minimizes the mean square error and variability, while combining all possible subset selection methodology with the inclusion variable transformations and interactions. Moreover, this method controls multicollinearity, leading to an optimal set of explanatory variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern computing architecture based on the separation of memory and processing leads to a well known problem called the von Neumann bottleneck, a restrictive limit on the data bandwidth between CPU and RAM. This paper introduces a new approach to computing we call AHaH computing where memory and processing are combined. The idea is based on the attractor dynamics of volatile dissipative electronics inspired by biological systems, presenting an attractive alternative architecture that is able to adapt, self-repair, and learn from interactions with the environment. We envision that both von Neumann and AHaH computing architectures will operate together on the same machine, but that the AHaH computing processor may reduce the power consumption and processing time for certain adaptive learning tasks by orders of magnitude. The paper begins by drawing a connection between the properties of volatility, thermodynamics, and Anti-Hebbian and Hebbian (AHaH) plasticity. We show how AHaH synaptic plasticity leads to attractor states that extract the independent components of applied data streams and how they form a computationally complete set of logic functions. After introducing a general memristive device model based on collections of metastable switches, we show how adaptive synaptic weights can be formed from differential pairs of incremental memristors. We also disclose how arrays of synaptic weights can be used to build a neural node circuit operating AHaH plasticity. By configuring the attractor states of the AHaH node in different ways, high level machine learning functions are demonstrated. This includes unsupervised clustering, supervised and unsupervised classification, complex signal prediction, unsupervised robotic actuation and combinatorial optimization of procedures–all key capabilities of biological nervous systems and modern machine learning algorithms with real world application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, China is facing a very serious issue of Air Pollution due to its dreadful impact on the human health as well as the environment. The urban cities in China are the most affected due to their rapid industrial and economic growth. Therefore, it is of extreme importance to come up with new, better and more reliable forecasting models to accurately predict the air quality. This paper selected Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang as three cities from the Jingjinji Region for the study to come up with a new model of collaborative forecasting using Support Vector Regression (SVR) for Urban Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction in China. The present study is aimed to improve the forecasting results by minimizing the prediction error of present machine learning algorithms by taking into account multiple city multi-dimensional air quality information and weather conditions as input. The results show that there is a decrease in MAPE in case of multiple city multi-dimensional regression when there is a strong interaction and correlation of the air quality characteristic attributes with AQI. Also, the geographical location is found to play a significant role in Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang AQI prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Driver behavior impacts traffic safety, fuel/energy consumption and gas emissions. Driver behavior profiling tries to understand and positively impact driver behavior. Usually driver behavior profiling tasks involve automated collection of driving data and application of computer models to generate a classification that characterizes the driver aggressiveness profile. Different sensors and classification methods have been employed in this task, however, low-cost solutions and high performance are still research targets. This paper presents an investigation with different Android smartphone sensors, and classification algorithms in order to assess which sensor/method assembly enables classification with higher performance. The results show that specific combinations of sensors and intelligent methods allow classification performance improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Music emotion recognition (MER) field rapidly expanded in the last decade. Many new methods and new audio features are developed to improve the performance of MER algorithms. However, it is very difficult to compare the performance of the new methods because of the data representation diversity and scarcity of publicly available data. In this paper, we address these problems by creating a data set and a benchmark for MER. The data set that we release, a MediaEval Database for Emotional Analysis in Music (DEAM), is the largest available data set of dynamic annotations (valence and arousal annotations for 1,802 songs and song excerpts licensed under Creative Commons with 2Hz time resolution). Using DEAM, we organized the ‘Emotion in Music’ task at MediaEval Multimedia Evaluation Campaign from 2013 to 2015. The benchmark attracted, in total, 21 active teams to participate in the challenge. We analyze the results of the benchmark: the winning algorithms and feature-sets. We also describe the design of the benchmark, the evaluation procedures and the data cleaning and transformations that we suggest. The results from the benchmark suggest that the recurrent neural network based approaches combined with large feature-sets work best for dynamic MER. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been employed to solve a broad variety of tasks. The selection of an ANN model with appropriate weights is important in achieving accurate results. This paper presents an optimization strategy for ANN model selection based on the cuckoo search (CS) algorithm, which is rooted in the obligate brood parasitic actions of some cuckoo species. In order to enhance the convergence ability of basic CS, some modifications are proposed. The fraction Pa of the n nests replaced by new nests is a fixed parameter in basic CS. As the selection of Pa is a challenging issue and has a direct effect on exploration and therefore on convergence ability, in this work the Pa is set to a maximum value at initialization to achieve more exploration in early iterations and it is decreased during the search to achieve more exploitation in later iterations until it reaches the minimum value in the final iteration. In addition, a novel master-leader-slave multi-population strategy is used where the slaves employ the best fitness function among all slaves, which is selected by the leader under a certain condition. This fitness function is used for subsequent Lévy flights. In each iteration a copy of the best solution of each slave is migrated to the master and then the best solution is found by the master. The method is tested on benchmark classification and time series prediction problems and the statistical analysis proves the ability of the method. This method is also applied to a real-world water quality prediction problem with promising results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Lithium-ion batteries is closely related to the capacity degeneration trajectories. Due to the self-charging and the capacity regeneration, the trajectories have the property of multimodality. Traditional prediction models such as the support vector machines (SVM) or the Gaussian Process regression (GPR) cannot accurately characterize this multimodality. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction method based on the Gaussian Process Mixture (GPM). It can process multimodality by fitting different segments of trajectories with different GPR models separately, such that the tiny differences among these segments can be revealed. The method is demonstrated to be effective for prediction by the excellent predictive result of the experiments on the two commercial and chargeable Type 1850 Lithium-ion batteries, provided by NASA. The performance comparison among the models illustrates that the GPM is more accurate than the SVM and the GPR. In addition, GPM can yield the predictive confidence interval, which makes the prediction more reliable than that of traditional models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]