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Strong earthquake geological hazards cause significant social and economic losses. The assessment of post-earthquake socioeconomic development levels is one of the important bases from which to measure the recovery capacity of hazard areas. However, the long-term impact of geological hazards is rarely considered in the assessment of the socioeconomic development level of a mountainous earthquake-stricken area. The purpose of this paper is to study the complex relationship between earthquake geological hazard effects and socioeconomic development in the long-term post-earthquake development and reconstruction of mountainous extremely earthquake-stricken areas, to provide a reference for the study area to achieve regional sustainable development goals and high-quality development. On this basis, using the economic, social, ecological environment and other relevant data from 2008 to 2016, and using unsupervised machine learning algorithms, a socioeconomic development level evaluation model based on spectral clustering was established, and the effects of different kernel function scale parameters on the model were analyzed. The optimal parameters were determined, and the spatiotemporal analysis of the socioeconomic development level of the study area was carried out. The research results show that the performance of the evaluation model is optimal when the output category is 4 and the scale parameter is 0.26, and the scale parameter of the kernel function is an important indicator that affects the accuracy of the model. From 2008 to 2016, the socioeconomic development level of Qingchuan has always been at a very low level, Wenchuan and Beichuan have always been at a low level, Shifang and Mianzhu have always been at a high level, and Pengzhou and Dujiangyan have always been at a very high level. The socioeconomic development level of Anxian, Maoxian and Pingwu fluctuates greatly over time. Another interesting finding is that the socioeconomic development level of the mountainous earthquake-stricken area has a strong correlation with its own industrial structure and landslide hazard effects. The work done in this paper is of great significance for understanding the temporal and spatial effects of hazards and understanding the complexities of regional disaster systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Bangkok Basin has been known from non-instrumental observations of the local population to be subject to ground motion amplification due to the deep alluvial sediments and basin geometry. This study analyzes available seismic data to confirm that basin effects are significant in the Bangkok Basin. The paper contributes to the evaluation of basin effects by characterizing the engineering ground motion parameters and HVSR curves for the Bangkok basin which produce lengthening of ground motion duration with respect to nearby rock sites, albeit with very low ground motions. For this purpose, we analyzed ground motion records from seismic stations located within the Bangkok alluvial basin from 2007 to 2021. Recorded peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) for seismic stations inside the basin always exceeded 1 cm/s2 during eight earthquakes with Mw ≥ 5.5. Of these, two were intraslab events and six were shallow crustal earthquakes. These recorded ground motions shook high-rise buildings in Bangkok even though their epicentral distance exceeded 600 km. Methods: Several time and frequency domain analyses (such as analysis of residual, HVSR, Hodogram plots, etc.) are used on the ground motion records in the Bangkok basin to determine the frequency content of recorded ground motion and to demonstrate the significance of surface waves induced by the deep basin in altering the engineering ground motion amplitudes. In addition, centerless circular array microtremor analysis is used to determine the depth of sedimentary basin to the bedrock. Results: Based on comparisons from those stations located outside the Bangkok basin, we observed the capability of alluvial deposits in the Bangkok basin to amplify ground motion records by about 3 times. We observed that there is a unique site amplification effect between 0.3 and 0.1 Hz due to local surface waves and other moderate amplifications between 2 and 0.5 Hz due to a soft layer like other deep alluvial basins in other metropolitan areas. Conclusion: We noticed that there is a unique site amplification effect between 0.1 and 0.3 Hz and smaller peaks around 2 and 0.5 Hz consistent with expectations for site amplification effects associated with deep basins. Moreover, we noticed the presence of low frequencies content of the surface wave generated within the basin which deserved further studies using the 2D/3D ground motion modelling through basin topography and velocity models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Myanmar is an earthquake-prone country, there has not been proposed an official national seismic hazard map. Thus, this study conducted a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Myanmar and some of its metropolitan areas. Performing this assessment required a set of databases that incorporates both earthquake catalogs and fault parameters. We obtained seismic parameters from the International Seismological Centre, and the fault database includes fault parameters from paper reviews and the database. Based on seismic activities, we considered three categories of seismogenic sources—active fault source, shallow area source, and subduction zone source. We evaluated seismic activity of each source based on the earthquake catalogs and fault parameters. Evaluating the ground-shaking behaviors for Myanmar requires evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation; therefore, we validated existing ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) by comparing instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes. We then incorporated the best fitting GMPEs into our seismic hazard assessments. By incorporating the Vs30 (the average shear velocity down to 30 m depth) map from an analysis of topographic slope, we utilized site effect and assessed national probabilistic seismic hazards for Myanmar. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault and along the Western Coast of Myanmar. We also assessed seismic hazard for some metropolitan cities, including Bagan, Bago, Mandalay, Sagaing, Taungoo and Yangon, in the forms of hazard curves and disaggregation by implementing detailed Vs30 maps from micro-tremor surveys. The city-scale assessments show higher hazards for sites close to an active fault or/and with a low Vs30, demonstrating the importance of investigating site conditions. The outcomes of this study will be beneficial to urban planning on a city scale and building code legislation on a national scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, heterogeneous cloud resources are charged by cloud providers according to the pay-as-you-go pricing model. To execute workflow applications in clouds under deadline constraints, cloud resources have to be utilized appropriately and judiciously, challenging traditional workflow scheduling algorithms, which are either inapplicable to the cloud environment or fail to fully exploit the features of scheduling problem for cost optimization. In this paper, we propose a heuristic algorithm CSDW and a meta-heuristic algorithm N-WOA to minimize the execution cost of the given workflow subject to the deadline constraint in clouds. CSDW first assigns the sub-deadline to each task based on the modified probabilistic upward rank, and then tasks are sorted and mapped to appropriate instances, finally instance-type upgrading and downgrading method is adopted to further accelerate workflow execution and reduce the total cost, respectively. N-WOA employs whale optimization algorithm for deadline-constrained cost optimization by refining the task ordering step in CSDW. By simulation experiments on scientific workflows with existing algorithms, the results demonstrate the capability of the proposed algorithms in meeting the deadlines and reducing the execution costs, CSDW is highly competitive and N-WOA achieves the best performance in all cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

InSAR-based deformation analysis and the geomorphic hypsometric integral (HI) technique are powerful tools for assessing the susceptibility and comparison of seismic sites to earthquakes. Therefore, this paper mainly focuses on surface deformation analysis associated with the Mw 5.0 earthquake (2019) in Mach and Quetta, Balochistan, Pakistan. Sentinel-1 IW data was used to perform PS-InSAR time series analysis. SRTM DEM of 30 m spatial resolution was utilized for the geomorphic Hypsometry Integral (HI) method. The obtained results of the Interferogram indicate the changes in velocity and vertical displacement during pre-seismic, co-seismic, and post-seismic activity. Integral values were calculated using Hypsometry curves delineating the future probability and comparison of vulnerable seismological sites in Mach, Quetta, Ghazaband, Chamman and surroundings of Balochistan region. The combined results of HI and PS-InSAR revealed that Mach and Quetta regions are in between two lines known as the mature stages. Class 1_moderate (0.35 ≤ HI ≤ 0.52); with an integral value of HIMach = 0.398 and HIQuetta = 0.435 with a modest seismic forthcoming rate in future and susceptible to both erosion/uplifting with a vertical displacement rate more than existing ± 55 mm/year. Class 2_high (HI ˃ 0.53) with the younger and more tectonically active region surrounded by Chaman fault, which possesses a future susceptible tendency towards subsidence more than an existing velocity rate ~ 8 mm/year and Ghazaband fault towards uplifting more than 5–6 mm/year. No region of the study area was found at Monadnock: class 3_Low (HI ˂ 0.35) stabilized condition, all sites are unstable and tectonically active. Therefore, obtained results through combined PS-InSAR and HI techniques can be used for the identification of most vulnerable seismic sites and can ascertain future safe metropolitan planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the first time, a numerical comparison of the General Seismic Zoning (GSZ) maps with the effect of earthquakes that actually occurred after the publication of the maps was carried out. The area of zones of expected intensity on the GSZ map is compared with the area of isoseists from actual earthquakes. It turned out that the isoseist area is on average by an order less than expected according to the GSZ. This paper describes possible reasons for such an overestimation and proposes ways to improve seismic hazard assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With growing economic globalization, the modern service sector is in great need of business intelligence for data analytics and computational statistics. The results show that, compared with a model incorporated with banks' overall risk, a model considering on-balance-sheet lending activities only may over-estimate the overall average TFE and under-estimate TFE volatility as a whole. The local likelihood density estimation technique together with pseudo likelihood estimation method is employed to estimate the parameters of the model. [Extracted from the article]

Design ground motion intensities determine the actions for which structures are checked, in the conventional approach of seismic codes, not to fail the target performances. On the other hand, due to inherent characteristics of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), it is expected that site-specific design intensity based on PSHA is exceeded in the epicentral area of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes. In the context of regional seismic loss assessment and of the evolution of seismic codes from the regulator perspective, it is useful to gather insights about the extent of the zone around the earthquake source where code-conforming structures are expected to be systematically exposed to seismic actions larger than those accounted for in design. To assess such areal extent based on empirical evidence is the scope of the study presented in the paper. To this aim, peak ground acceleration ShakeMap data for Italian earthquakes from 2008 to 2020 were compared to the current design intensities in the same areas for which the maps are available. This allowed, first, to develop simple semi-empirical models of the exceedance area versus the magnitude of the earthquakes. Second, it allowed to model the probability that an earthquake of given magnitude causes exceedance of the design intensity via logistic regressions. Coupling the first and second class of models provides an approximation of the expected exceedance (logarithmic) area upon occurrence of an earthquake of given magnitude. Such an area can be of several thousand square kilometers for earthquakes occurring relatively frequently in countries such as Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters. Efficiently and quickly acquiring building earthquake damage information can help to reduce the casualties after an earthquake. In this paper, for convenience, speed, and precision, building damage information is extracted using a single post-earthquake PolSAR image. In PolSAR images, the undamaged parallel buildings characterized by double-bounce scattering are different from the collapsed buildings characterized by volume scattering, but the undamaged oriented buildings are very similar to collapsed buildings because of their scattering mechanism ambiguity in the early traditional model-based decomposition. Therefore, the collapsed buildings are difficult to extract accurately. In this paper, the scheme of polarization orientation angle (POA) compensation is employed to enhance the double-bounce scattering power of the oriented buildings, and the difference in the relative contribution change rate of scattering components before and after POA compensation is proposed to further enhance the difference between collapsed buildings and oriented buildings, in order that the collapsed buildings can be extracted more accurately. The '4.14' Yushu earthquake, which occurred in Yushu County, Qinghai province of China, is used as the case study to test the proposed method, and an airborne high-resolution PolSAR image of the urban region of Yushu County is used in the experiment. The experimental results show that the accuracy of building damage information extraction can be improved by the use of the proposed method, compared with the traditional polarimetric classification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2014 Kashmir floods caused widespread damage in the valley of Kashmir, particularly in the city of Srinagar, and had a significant socioeconomic impact. Around 175,000 residential houses were damaged in the valley. Recent studies focusing on the flood–hazard that the Jhelum river poses have shown that a flood event with a return period of five or more years is likely to cause overflowing in the river. As such, policy decisions regarding flood safety are rather important. This paper seeks to inform such future policy decisions from a structural engineering point of view by presenting results from a survey of damaged houses in an area of Srinagar city. The surveyed houses are classified based on construction type and material, exposure level, and age for an adequate interpretation of results. A rational and easy-to-use method of quantifying damage using a damage index scale is proposed and used in this study. Damage index values evaluated using the proposed method are found to correlate well with actual damage in surveyed structures. 80% of the surveyed houses were submerged to more than half of their heights and nearly 20% were found to be completely collapsed. Houses with mud mortar, and timber as the material for beams, slabs and plinth were the found to be most damaged, while houses with cement mortar having a damp proof course and reinforced cement concrete beams and slabs were found to have performed well. It is emphasized that structural design in Kashmir has to account for seismic forces as well, and that any guideline thereof needs to take into account both hazards–floods as well as earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Publisher's Note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. B Correction: Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2023) 10:8 b https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-023-00540-8 After publication of this article (Ikehara et al. [1]), it was brought to our attention that one of the reviewer's name in the acknowledgments of the paper is incorrect, it should be changed from Dr J.N. Prost to Dr J.N. Proust. [Extracted from the article]

In order to shed light on the seismic response of complex industrial plants, advanced finite element models should take into account both multicomponents and relevant coupling effects. These models are usually computationally expensive and rely on significant computational resources. Moreover, the relationships between seismic action, system response and relevant damage levels are often characterized by a high level of nonlinearity, which requires a solid background of experimental data. Vulnerability and reliability analyses both depend on the adoption of a significant number of seismic waveforms that are generally not available when seismic risk evaluation is strictly site-specific. In addition, detection of most vulnerable components, i.e., pipe bends and welding points, is an important step to prevent leakage events. In order to handle these issues, a methodology based on a stochastic seismic ground motion model, hybrid simulation and acoustic emission is presented in this paper. The seismic model is able to generate synthetic ground motions coherent with site-specific analysis. In greater detail, the system is composed of a steel slender tank, i.e., the numerical substructure, and a piping network connected through a bolted flange joint, i.e., the physical substructure. Moreover, to monitor the seismic performance of the pipeline and harness the use of sensor technology, acoustic emission sensors are placed through the pipeline. Thus, real-time acoustic emission signals of the system under study are acquired using acoustic emission sensors. Moreover, in addition to seismic events, also a severe monotonic loading is exerted on the physical substructure. As a result, deformation levels of each critical component were investigated; and the processing of acoustic emission signals provided a more in-depth view of the damage of the analysed components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dhanbad, also known as 'Coal Capital of India', is an important district in the state of Jharkhand, India. In this paper, hazard maps for the city are prepared at bedrock level following probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). In the absence of region-specific prediction model, the concept of logic tree comprising of four different ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is employed to consider epistemic uncertainties. The study reveals that the maximum expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the city may be 0.16 g and 0.23 g with 10% and 2% probability of exceedances in 50 years, respectively. The most conservative seismic hazard curve for Dhanbad city is presented to aid future earthquake-resistant design. Furthermore, it is found that blocks in southern parts of the city such as Baghmara, Jharia and Baliapur are most vulnerable to seismic hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Youd's method is a widely adopted standard penetration test based approach for evaluation of liquefaction potential. This method was established by pooling the post-earthquake survey data collected from different regions of the world, and its accuracy may vary when applied in different regions. This paper investigates the inter-region variability associated with the accuracy of Youd's method using a Bayesian model. It is found that Youd's method is on average biased towards conservatism, and there does exist the inter-region variability associated with the uncertainty of the model bias factor. Nevertheless, the inter-region variability associated with the model uncertainty of Youd's method is less significant than the intra-region variability. Due to the existence of inter-region variability, the same factor of safety (FOS) may imply different levels of liquefaction probabilities in different regions. If the inter-region variability is not considered, the obtained FOS—failure probability relationship may lead to underestimation or overestimation of the liquefaction potential when applied in different regions. A verification method is proposed to compare the predicted number of liquefied cases with the actual number of liquefied cases in each region. An illustrative example for assessing the liquefaction potential is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the effect of the amplitude of input shaking on the dynamic response of a loess-mudstone slope through a series of staged centrifuge tests, including different amplitude earthquake excitations, in which the seismic performance of the slope models was analyzed and investigated. The derived outputs were processed to study the earthquake acceleration amplification effect and to assess the induced deformation mechanism in terms of the resulting displacements and deformation mode. The test results indicated that the amplification factors of peak ground acceleration (PGA) increased with increasing slope height, reaching maximum values at the crest. The amplification effect was also demonstrated on the slope surface. In addition, the predominant amplitude of the input seismic excitation was critical to the response of the slope. The results proved that the displacements in the loess layer were much larger than those in the weathered mudstone. Tensile cracks were formed mainly on the crest and the upper part of the slope, and failure modes were dominant at the slope surface. The location of the slide plane in the model was consistent with the location of maximum acceleration. A continuous shallow slide plane was formed in the loess layer. The analysis provides good information for identifying both surface movement and mass movement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vulnerability assessment is important for earthquake prevention and mitigation. Since many criteria need to be considered during the evaluation process, it can be modeled as a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. This paper proposes an approach which integrates the results of different MCDM methods to provide regional earthquake vulnerability assessment. The key idea of this approach is to determine the most trustable MCDM method by calculating the weights of several MCDM methods using the Spearman's ranking correlation coefficients. The most trustable MCDM method is the one with the highest weight, which indicates that it has the strongest agreements with other MCDM methods, and is used to provide a final assessment using the combination of other MCDM methods. The proposed approach is applied to evaluate the earthquake vulnerability of 31 Chinese regions using six MCDM methods and eleven vulnerability evaluation indices. The results indicate that the proposed approach can integrate the inconsistent evaluation results of different MCDM methods and produce a comprehensive assessment of regional earthquake vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: On November 21, 2022, a magnitude Mw 5.6 earthquake struck Cianjur Regency in the West Java Province of Indonesia. It was followed by at least 512 aftershocks that persisted from November to June 2023. This seismic event occurred in an area previously unrecognized as an active fault zone. The consequences of this earthquake in Cianjur were severe, leading to both loss of life and extensive structural damage. The substantial damage to buildings was likely a result of abrupt alterations in the local topography due to surface deformation effects. Objectives: This research endeavor aims to spatially determine the patterns of ground surface deformation and its relationship with local geomorphological setting due to earthquakes in Cianjur in 2022. Methods: In this study we conduct seismological analysis of 45 seismic stations, statistical analysis of mainshock and aftershocks data, RADAR Sentinel-1 imagery and employed the DInSAR methodology. Field survey was also conducted to determine the geomorphological characteristics in the study area. Results: The outcomes disclosed that the deformation encompassed both subsidence and uplift. The results signify that there was subsidence deformation in the vicinity of Cianjur and its environs during the primary earthquake on November 21, 2022, with an average deformation value of approximately -5 cm. In contrast, the measured deformation during the aftershocks exhibited uplift deformation, with an average value of 10 cm. The examination of deformation patterns amid the 2022 Cianjur earthquake sequence detects elevated deformation values in the vicinity of Cugenang district, with an orientation running from northwest to southeast. The geomorphological investigation conducted indicates that the region of Cianjur encompasses a variety of landforms, such as volcanic, structural, fluvial, and denudational. These landforms exhibit distinct responses to seismic activities. Co-seismic hazards, such as landslides frequently occur as a consequence of seismic events in mountainous terrain. Main Conclusions: Spatio-temporal variation of ground deformation could arise from various causes, such as the number and distribution of aftershocks, stress redistribution, fault interactions, secondary effects, and local geological settings. The mainshocks release accumulated stress along a fault, resulting in particular types of deformation, whereas aftershocks may redistribute stress exhibiting on adjacent faults. Secondary effects triggered by aftershocks, coupled with local geological and geomorphological conditions, further contribute to the diverse patterns of ground deformation observed during seismic events. The results of the study revealed that ground deformation had the greatest impact on fluvial, volcanic, and denudational processes, resulting in notable subsidence and uplift in specific regions. The occurrence and magnitude of co-seismic landslides were triggered by both mainshock and aftershock events, which occurred on weathered geological materials. These effects were further amplified by the simultaneous presence of the rainy season. Implications: The knowledge gained from this research can be applied to evaluate the impacts of earthquakes and to proactively reduce future risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soltaniyeh dome is the largest brick dome in the world and registered in UNESCO’s world heritage site that makes it one of the most important historical buildings in Iran. It suffered significant damages during its lifetime; therefore, preservation of that from the future destruction is vital. In this paper, the vulnerability of the structure was studied by FEM model which was verified by previous experimental and analytical studies. The extended FEM method (XFEM) was used to consider crack formation and propagation. Gravity, pushover and nonlinear dynamic analyses were conducted to study the behavior of structure under service and seismic load. The results indicate that the structure is adequate in the gravity loads but significant cracks are started from the opening of the second and third floors and propagate through the dome and its supports in the design earthquake (475-year return period). These results in addition to the drift diagram of structure suggest that the top of the structure is more vulnerable and needed to be rehabilitated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Himalaya is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. The occurrence of several large magnitude earthquakes viz. 1905 Kangra earthquake (Mw 7.8), 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.2), 1950 Assam earthquake (Mw 8.4), 2005 Kashmir (Mw 7.6), and 2015 Gorkha (Mw 7.8) are the testimony to ongoing tectonic activity. In the last few decades, tremendous efforts have been made along the Himalayan arc to understand the patterns of earthquake occurrences, size, extent, and return periods. Some of the large magnitude earthquakes produced surface rupture, while some remained blind. Furthermore, due to the incompleteness of the earthquake catalogue, a very few events can be correlated with medieval earthquakes. Based on the existing paleoseismic data certainly, there exists a complexity to precisely determine the extent of surface rupture of these earthquakes and also for those events, which occurred during historic times. In this paper, we have compiled the paleo-seismological data and recalibrated the radiocarbon ages from the trenches excavated by previous workers along the entire Himalaya and compared earthquake scenario with the past. Our studies suggest that there were multiple earthquake events with overlapping surface ruptures in small patches with an average rupture length of ~300 km limiting Mw 7.8-8.0 for the Himalayan arc, rather than two or three giant earthquakes rupturing the whole front. It has been identified that the large magnitude Himalayan earthquakes, such as 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, and 1950 Assam, that have occurred within a time frame of 45 years. Now, if these events are dated, there is a high possibility that within the range of ±50 years, they may be considered as the remnant of one giant earthquake rupturing the entire Himalayan arc. Therefore, leading to an overestimation of seismic hazard scenario in Himalaya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the recent developments in machine-learning technology, its application has rapidly progressed in various fields of earthquake seismology, achieving great success. Here, we review the recent advances, focusing on catalog development, seismicity analysis, ground-motion prediction, and crustal deformation analysis. First, we explore studies on the development of earthquake catalogs, including their elemental processes such as event detection/classification, arrival time picking, similar waveform searching, focal mechanism analysis, and paleoseismic record analysis. We then introduce studies related to earthquake risk evaluation and seismicity analysis. Additionally, we review studies on ground-motion prediction, which are categorized into four groups depending on whether the output is ground-motion intensity or ground-motion time series and the input is features (individual measurable properties) or time series. We discuss the effect of imbalanced ground-motion data on machine-learning models and the approaches taken to address the problem. Finally, we summarize the analysis of geodetic data related to crustal deformation, focusing on clustering analysis and detection of geodetic signals caused by seismic/aseismic phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Site-specific seismic hazard analysis is crucial for designing earthquake resistance structures, particularly in seismically active regions. Shear wave velocity (VS) is a key parameter in such analysis, although the economy and other factors restrict its direct field measurement in many cases. Various VS-SPT-N correlations are routinely incorporated in seismic hazard analysis to estimate the value of VS. However, many uncertainties question the reliability of these estimated VS values. This paper comes up with a statistical approach to take care of such uncertainties involved in VS calculations. The measured SPT-N values from all the critical boreholes were converted into statistical parameters and passed through various correlations to estimate VS at different depths. The effect of different soil layers in the boreholes on the VS estimation was also taken into account. Further, the average shear wave velocity of the top 30 m soil cover (VS30) is estimated after accounting for various epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. The scattering nature of the VS values estimated using different VS-N correlations was reduced significantly with the application of the methodology. Study results further clearly demonstrated the potential of the approach to eliminate various uncertainties involved in the estimation of VS30 using general and soil-specific correlations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 2D model of two adjacent buildings with different heights (6 and 12 floors) and foundation levels without separation distance under seismic load and considering SSI is investigated. A special arrangement of contact elements (gap elements) each 1 m of the low height building in the contact zone is taken into consideration to fulfill all possible deformation contact modes which take place under seismic load (earthquake). Soil is modeled by 2D shell elements in contact with foundations of the two adjacent buildings. This paper focuses on the study of double pounding that takes place between the two adjacent buildings in some upper points at superstructure in the contact zone and also at foundation level. The forces of double pounding between the two adjacent buildings, which increase by softening of the soil, give a valuable assessment of straining actions of the two adjacent buildings and change the behavior of soil under the foundations and around basement floor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind turbine technology has developed tremendously over the past years. In Egypt, the Zafarana wind farm is currently generating at a capacity of 517 MW, making it one of the largest onshore wind farms in the world. It is located in an active seismic zone along the west side of the Gulf of Suez. Accordingly, seismic risk assessment is demanded for studying the structural integrity of wind towers under expected seismic hazard events. In the context of ongoing joint Egypt-US research project 'Seismic Risk Assessment of Wind Turbine Towers in Zafarana wind Farm Egypt' (Project ID: 4588), this paper describes the dynamic performance investigation of an existing Nordex N43 wind turbine tower. Both experimental and numerical work are illustrated explaining the methodology adopted to investigate the dynamic behavior of the tower under seismic load. Field dynamic testing of the full-scale tower was performed using ambient vibration techniques (AVT). Both frequency domain and time domain methods were utilized to identify the actual dynamic properties of the tower as built in the site. Mainly, the natural frequencies, their corresponding mode shapes and damping ratios of the tower were successfully identified using AVT. A vibration-based finite element model (FEM) was constructed using ANSYS V.12 software. The numerical and experimental results of modal analysis were both compared for matching purpose. Using different simulation considerations, the initial FEM was updated to finally match the experimental results with good agreement. Using the final updated FEM, the response of the tower under the AQABA earthquake excitation was investigated. Time history analysis was conducted to define the seismic response of the tower in terms of the structural stresses and displacements. This work is considered as one of the pioneer structural studies of the wind turbine towers in Egypt. Identification of the actual dynamic properties of the existing tower was successfully performed based on AVT. Using advanced techniques in both the field testing and the numerical investigations produced reliable FEM specific for the tested tower, which can be further used in more advanced structural investigations for improving the design of such special structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Suban area of Curup Rejang Lebong is a tourist region in Bengkulu Province, Indonesia, close to the active Ketaun and Musi faults, which are segments of the Sumatra Fault System (SFS). However, no studies have been conducted in this area to assess how geological structures affect seismic ground motions and contribute to seismic hazard and risk assessment. Methods: The first study of seismic microzonation in the Suban area of Curup City by ambient noise measurements was conducted at 100 sites, spaced ~ 1 km apart, with 60 min of data acquisition for each site. All microseismic data were processed using the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratios (HVSR) method. Results: The HVSR method revealed the amplification factors (A0) ranging from 1.23 to 8.26 times, corresponding to natural frequency (f0) variations between 1.24 and 9.67 Hz. About 13% and 55% of the sites show high (6 ≤ A0 ≤ 9) and medium (3 ≤ A0 ≤ 6) amplifications, respectively, predominantly in the western parts of the study area, consistent with a high seismic vulnerability index (Kg). Furthermore, we also estimated the ground shear strain (GSS) of the region using the Kanai method with two large historical earthquakes at the Ketahun segment in 1943 (Mw 7.4) and the Musi segment in 1979 (Mw 6.0). The Kg value is consistent with the GSS values and indicates areas of severe damage during the historic earthquakes. Conclusions: Thus, the western parts of the Suban region are vulnerable to severe damage from an earthquake. These findings could provide valuable insights for future planning and risk management efforts aimed at minimizing the impact of earthquakes in the Suban region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Masonry minarets in Old Cairo are highly susceptible to earthquake damage, particularly those not designed or updated to withstand seismic loads. Therefore, regular monitoring is necessary to ensure their safety and detect any deterioration or reduction in seismic performance. The direct loss of a minaret can lead to the collapse or severe damage to the structure itself. The cascading impacts of partial or complete minaret failure can have significant consequences for the immediate vicinity and the broader community. By studying the effects of earthquakes on minarets and developing mitigation strategies, countries can take proactive measures to protect these structures and ensure the safety of people. Objective: This study focuses on a specific type of Islamic architecture: the historic minarets in Cairo. The research aims to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of eight cultural heritage minarets in Cairo, identifying the parameters influencing their seismic behaviour and susceptibility to earthquake damage. Methods: The research utilizes empirical seismic vulnerability methods and ambient vibration measurements on eight minarets. An empirical approach compatible with the nature and style of the minarets is employed to evaluate their vulnerability using index values and curves. The method's validity is assessed, and areas of conformity and limitations are identified. Ambient vibration tests (AVTs) are also conducted using a temporary seismic network installed at various heights inside each minaret to determine their dynamic characteristics. Results: The seismic vulnerability Index (I_V) is calculated for the selected minarets based on the state of each vulnerability parameter. The contribution of each parameter to the final I_V values of the minarets are presented. Vulnerability curves are developed for each minaret, interpreting the conventional vulnerability indexes in terms of mean damage grades for seismic events with varying intensity on the EMS-98 scale. These mean damage grades can also indicate the expected damage levels of structural and non-structural minaret elements for events with different seismic intensity levels. AVTs are conducted at various heights on the selected minarets, and the dynamic characteristics are extracted from the recorded data. Variations in these characteristics are considered significant for structural health monitoring analysis. The peak-picking method is employed to directly extract each minaret's natural frequencies and mode shapes, as changes in dynamic characteristics are relevant to health monitoring analyses. Conclusions: The recent study examined the seismic vulnerability assessment of eight masonry minarets in the historic Old Cairo district. The assessment revealed vulnerability index values ranging from 10.3 to 26.1, indicating a concerning susceptibility to seismic events among these structures. Vulnerability curves were constructed for each minaret, visually representing potential damage scenarios across different levels of the EMS-98 intensity scale. These outcomes are significant as they facilitate prioritizing interventions to safeguard the most vulnerable minarets. Additionally, a novel empirical period equation was introduced to estimate the fundamental period of minarets in Old Cairo based on their heights. The equation was validated against field measurements and data from the literature. The study is limited by its focus on a specific category of minarets, specifically the historical masonry minarets in Old Cairo. Furthermore, limitations arise from the need for detailed finite element models to capture these minarets' dynamic responses accurately. Therefore, ongoing research involves the development of detailed finite element models and calibrating fundamental periods for the selected minarets. The anticipated results hold the potential to enhance our understanding of the structural dynamics of historical minarets, ultimately guiding the formulation of tailored seismic retrofitting and preservation strategies. These strategies, aimed at preserving these cherished cultural heritage assets, represent our collective commitment to ensure the endurance of these timeless landmarks for future generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A homogeneous earthquake database is required to research earthquake occurrence patterns throughout time and space, as well as for a variety of technical applications such as seismic hazard assessment, peak ground acceleration computation, and long-term seismic strain rate estimation. Naturally, its seismic network and earthquake database have evolved in tandem with advances in seismology research. Magnitude is one of the most essential factors in determining the size of an earthquake, notably in seismic hazard assessment research. A rigorous and critical examination of these studies was created to compare various interpretations of existing earthquake data in terms of seismic characteristics (date, location, and size) and to determine the most trustworthy interpretation for each tremor. In terms of moment magnitude, the earthquake catalog is homogenized. The catalog compilation technique, the elimination of redundant events, the consolidation of magnitude scales, and the declustering process are used to remove dependent events, and its completeness analysis is well explained. Several magnitude-conversion method relationships, corresponding to known locals and regionals, have been constructed to offer uniform estimates of the moment magnitude for the whole collection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this work is to carry out seismically induced landslide probabilistic hazard mapping for future seismic scenarios of Aba Prefecture and Chengdu Plain region, Sichuan Province, China. Nine earthquake events that occurred in the regions and neighboring areas are selected, which include a total of 251,260 landslide records. This work used 12 influencing factors including elevation, slope, aspect, relief, topographic wetness index (TWI), topographic position index (TPI), peak ground motion, distance to active faults, vegetation coverage, distance to roads, lithology, and annual rainfall to establish the LR model. Based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method, the distribution of predicted seismic motion under four earthquake scenarios is calculated including frequent, occasional, rare, and very rare earthquake occurrence. Using the PGA distribution of the four scenarios as input peak ground motion parameters, we calculated the occurrence probability of coseismic landslides in the entire Aba Prefecture and Chengdu Plain region under the action of different ground motions. The result shows that the high-hazard areas are mainly concentrated in the Longmenshan fault zone, and the southern area of Kangding is also a potential high-hazard area for landsliding. Meanwhile, as the probability of exceedance decreases, the probability of corresponding earthquake-induced landslides hazard probability and the area of high-hazard regions also significantly increase. Especially, the Pengguan complex rock mass in the southwest of the Longmenshan fault zone is the potential high-hazard area for coseismic landslides. Highlights: Establishing a coseismic landslides evaluation model suitable for Aba Prefecture and Chengdu Plain region. Calculating the occurrence probability of coseismic landslides under different peak ground motions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake occurrence modeling of large subduction events involves significant uncertainty, stemming from the scarcity of geological data and inaccuracy of dating techniques. The previous research on statistical modeling of full-margin ruptures of the Cascadia subduction zone attempted to address these issues. However, the adopted resampling method to account for the uncertain marine turbidite age data from the Cascadia subduction zone was not sufficient in the sample size. This study presents a statistical approach based on the Gaussian mixture model applied to significantly larger resampled Cascadia age data. The results suggest that the 3-component Gaussian mixture model outperforms the 2-component Gaussian mixture model and the 1-component renewal models by capturing the long gap and short-term clustering. The developed Gaussian mixture model is well suited to apply to probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis and the calculation of long-term probability of the future full-margin Cascadia events by considering the elapsed time since the last event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current seismic risk assessment is based on two discrete approaches, actual and probable, validating afterwards the produced results. In the first part of this research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the 7/9/1999 Parnitha (Athens) earthquake. The actual evaluated seismic risk is afterwards compared to the estimated probable structural losses, which is presented in the second part of the paper, based on a damage scenario in the referring earthquake. The applied damage scenario is based on recently developed damage probability matrices (DPMs) from Athens (Greece) damage database. The seismic risk estimation refers to 750,085 buildings situated in the extended urban region of Athens. The building exposure is categorized in five typical structural types and represents 18.80 % of the entire building stock in Greece. The last information is provided by the National Statistics Service of Greece (NSSG) according to the 2000-2001 census. The seismic input is characterized by the ratio, a/ a, where a is the regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) which is evaluated from the earlier estimated research macroseismic intensities, and a is the PGA according to the hazard map of the 2003 Greek Seismic Code. Finally, the collected investigated financial data derived from different National Services responsible for the post-earthquake crisis management concerning the repair/strengthening or replacement costs or other categories of costs for the rehabilitation of earthquake victims (construction and function of settlements for earthquake homeless, rent supports, demolitions, shorings) are used to determine the final total seismic risk factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the cut slope stability problems of southern engineered slopes along 57 km long Mersin-Tarsus Motorway. While the northern slopes were slipping during and following construction, the stability problems occurred at southern slopes after heavy rains in December 2001. The most recent slope stability problem took place on chainage at the km 10+800 embankment on 9 April 2009. About 3.62 × 10 m soil materials have currently slipped at 60 different location. After the occurrence of slides, different remedial methods (reshaping slopes, soil improvements, etc.) have been applied to stabilize the slipped slopes. The slope stability studies were carried out using back analysis to determine the slope failure mechanisms and to estimate effective shear strength parameters. Pore water pressures increase following intense rainfall events and cause reduced resistance to shear strength at the engineered slopes. In addition, the affects of the static and dynamic parameters to analyse the state of the slope after excavation were investigated and possible remedies to improve the state (toe rockfill and retaining wall) were assessed for motorway slopes through determining the slope stability with water parameter and seismic loading, separately and together. The results of the stability analysis have exhibited that a good drainage system and retaining wall prevents the motorway slope slides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Engineering risk assessment is to estimate the structure's failure probability multiplied by its failure consequences. On the other hand, the analysis was sometimes performed on a more general basis, utilizing a few indicators to quantify relative risk levels for decision-making. On the basis of such a framework, this paper introduces a novel risk assessment on 18 active faults in Taiwan, considering the fault's location, earthquake size and return period from the literature. The result shows that the Chelungpu Fault in central Taiwan has the highest risk score among the 18 active faults, in contrast to the Hengchun Fault in southern Taiwan which has the lowest risk. Besides this, the 18 active faults in Taiwan were classified into four groups based on this risk assessment, and the classification could help the region's sustainable development against earthquake hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the adoption of Artificial Intelligence-based techniques to estimate seismic damage, not with the goal of replacing existing approaches, but as a mean to improve the precision of empirical methods. For such, damage data collected in the aftermath of the 1998 Azores earthquake (Portugal) is used to develop a comparative analysis between damage grades obtained resorting to a classic damage formulation and an innovative approach based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The analysis is carried out on the basis of a vulnerability index computed with a hybrid seismic vulnerability assessment methodology, which is subsequently used as input to both approaches. The results obtained are then compared with real post-earthquake damage observation and critically discussed taking into account the level of adjustment achieved by each approach. Finally, a computer routine that uses the ANN as an approximation function is developed and applied to derive a new vulnerability curve expression. In general terms, the ANN developed in this study allowed to obtain much better approximations than those achieved with the original vulnerability approach, which has revealed to be quite non-conservative. Similarly, the proposed vulnerability curve expression was found to provide a more accurate damage prediction than the traditional analytical expressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The initial phase of earthquake hazard assessment involves the consolidation of diverse magnitude scales, thereby requiring the homogenization of various magnitudes. Moment magnitude (Mw) emerges as the preferred descriptor for a range of magnitudes, encompassing local magnitude (ML), teleseismic magnitude (e.g., mb and MS), duration magnitudes (MD), and other magnitude proxies. Unlike alternative scales, Mw does not exhibit saturation at high magnitudes, enhancing its reliability. To achieve uniformity in magnitude representation, diverse regression techniques are employed, with the General Orthogonal Regression (GOR) method being widely regarded as the most dependable, accounting for uncertainty in both independent and dependent variables. Methods: This study utilized the International Seismological Centre (ISC) Catalogue (http://www.isc.ac.uk/) to compile an array of events related to the East Africa Rift System (EARS). Subsequently, the General Orthogonal Regression method was applied to merge and harmonize the collected data. Furthermore, the research computed Gutenberg-Richter b-values using the newly unified magnitude. Results: Notably, the conversion relationships between magnitude proxies, including MS-mb, mb-Mw, MS-Mw, and ML-Mw, exhibited robust correlations, with coefficients of 0.86, 0.80, 0.88, and 0.94, respectively. In contrast, the relationship between ML and mb proxies revealed a notably weaker correlation, registering a coefficient of 0.54. Ultimately, the study identified a magnitude of completeness and a b-value of 3.8 and 0.71, respectively, for the EARS region, providing valuable insights for earthquake hazard assessment in this area. Conclusion: Generally, the homogeneous catalogue is a step forward in seismicity assessment and geodynamic activities in the EARS. Hence, developing the empirical equations for the area is essential for future studies on seismic hazards and engineering applications due to the peculiarity of EARS's geological and tectonic characteristics. Article highlights: The empirical relations developed on the basis of the updated catalogue for the EARS are crucial and strong agreement with global studies for the earthquake hazard analysis in the region. The magnitude of completeness, Mc, for the EARS is significantly low as catalogues are continuously being updated. b-value obtained reveals that the EARS is experiencing active stress field with b-value significantly lower than 1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Afghanistan is situated close to the area where the Indian, Arabian, and Eurasian tectonic plates converge. The consequent seismic hazard causes the region to be repeatedly struck by major earthquakes. However, there is a lack of seismic instrumentation in the region, and only limited historical ground motions are available thus presenting a challenge for structural designers. Due to the absence of information and a database of ground motions, buildings in the region are often built without guidance from seismic codes. Consequently, the earthquakes in the region continue to cause enormous destruction to the built environment of the region. On 22 June 2022, the southeastern region of the country was struck by a major Mw 6.2 earthquake having a maximum modified Mercalli intensity of IX. In this study, synthetic ground motions are obtained using the modified stochastic finite fault methodology for Khost and Kabul cities in the region. The results from simulations obtained in the current study are observed to compare well with the available records of the earthquake. The obtained findings are reported as simulated accelerograms, acceleration response spectra, and Fourier response spectra, which will be immensely beneficial in understanding the behavior of the built environment of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thorough evaluation of suburban rail route alternatives is essential for determining the appropriate route. Suburban lines provide transportation services to suburban areas; that is, they provide transportation services to distant points of the city where demand is high. In this study, five alternative suburban rail routes in the commuter rail standard, starting from the Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge's European exit and ending at Istanbul Airport, were determined as a sample corridor in the province of Istanbul. High-standard suburban rail routes and their infrastructure construction costs were determined, and route options were delineated according to their construction costs. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods were examined, including the application of the decision matrix method (DMM) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to rank the routes in terms of the factors examined in the study. These routes were ranked according to the construction costs and according to the DMM and AHP methods, and the results were compared. In the decision matrix application, geomorphological-geological, geotechnical, infrastructural, and environmental factors were considered in the evaluation and determination process. A solution was developed in which all aspects were weighted to indicate their relevance, and these factors contributed to the determination of the results. The AHP method was also applied, in which five criteria were included in the evaluation: geology (including geomorphology and soil properties), engineering structures, construction costs, population values addressed by the routes, and railroad length. In addition, the distances to the active faults were examined according to the Turkey Earthquake Hazard Map specified in the Turkish Building Earthquake Code (TBDY) 2018. Depending on the factors studied, the ordering of the routes was the same for all three methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On September 26, 2019, an Mw 6.5 earthquake occurred 23 km northeast of Ambon City, Indonesia, followed by numerous aftershock series related to a complex fault network reactivation in the Ambon and Seram region. Using moment tensor inversion, we identify the kinematics of fault reactivation based on the focal mechanism solution of 20 aftershocks with Mw > 3.2 and analyze the earthquake sequence from both focal mechanism solutions and spatiotemporal seismicity. The MTs solution of aftershocks revealed three different characteristics of fault reactivation: (i) a 35 km long N-S oriented main fault characterized by dextral strike-slip (ii) a NE-SW reverse fault segment with a ~ 55° northeastward dip located in southwest Seram, and (iii) two strike-slip segments (NNW-SSE and NNE-SSW trends) and an E-W normal fault in Ambon Island. Analysis of spatiotemporal seismicity with the MTs solution suggests that the Mw 6.5 Ambon aftershock sequences can be described as follows: (i) an Mw 6.5 mainshock rupture that was primarily made up of a major strike-slip component and an insignificant minor normal fault; (ii) first aftershock cluster propagate along the main N-S ruptures, followed by the strike-slip and normal cluster in Ambon Island (iii) The reverse fault events cluster appeared next in Southwest Seram. The presence of complex strike-slip segments in Ambon agrees with the regional structure trends in Halmahera, located in the north of the study area, while the E-W oriented normal fault might be related to the eastward velocity increase in Banda Arc, which causes extensional deformation. Given that the fault reactivation identified in Ambon and Seram is located close to the densely populated urban regions of Ambon City and Kairatu, the analysis of future seismic hazards related to this fault reactivation should consider the risks in a region with complex fault settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Science and Technology (S & T) interventions are considered to be very important in any effort related to earthquake risk reduction. Their three main components are: earthquake forecast, assessment of earthquake hazard, and education and awareness. In India, although the efforts towards earthquake forecast were initiated about two decades ago, systematic studies started recently with the launch of a National Program on Earthquake Precursors. The quantification of seismic hazard, which is imperative in the present scenario, started in India with the establishment of first seismic observatory in 1898 and since then a substantial progress has been made in this direction. A dedicated education and awareness program was initiated about 10 years ago to provide earthquake education and create awareness amongst the students and society at large. The paper highlights significant S & T efforts made in India towards reduction of risk due to future large earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers the insights of Seth Stein, a geophysicist at the Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, regarding the hazard of the Reelfoot fault in the middle of Tennessee bean field and Mississippi River. According to Stein, the evidence shows that the U.S. government and several scientists have made misconception about the earthquake hazard in the area. Meanwhile, Stein and his group have published papers that present proof that supports his observation.

Severe failure of improperly designed and poorly constructed structures may occur due to the amplified and prolonged ground motion during an earthquake, and hence prediction of the ground motion characteristics at the soil surface is crucial. In this study, based on the prepared simplified engineering geomorphic map, we performed a one-dimensional (1D) nonlinear site response analysis for seismic site characterization of the recently proposed Detailed Area Plan (DAP) area of Dhaka City, the Capital of Bangladesh. The engineering geomorphic unit-based map was prepared from image analysis and verified with the collected borehole data and surface geology map. The study area was classified into three major geomorphic units and seven sub-units subject to the subsurface soil profiles. Nine earthquake time histories, seven from the PEER NGA WEST2 data set and two synthetics, and seven identified subsurface soil profiles were used for nonlinear site response analysis, along with the BNBC 2020 uniform hazard spectrum as the target spectrum. For the selected earthquake ground motions, the near-surface soil response of the DAP area showed de-amplification of acceleration in the short period and amplification of acceleration in the long period. The amplified long-period acceleration could cause severe damage in inappropriately designed and poorly constructed long-period structures. The outcome of this study could be used to prepare a seismic risk-sensitive land use plan for the future development of the DAP of Dhaka City. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid estimation of post-earthquake building damage and loss is very important in urgent response efforts. The current approach leaves much room for improvement in estimating ground motion and correctly incorporating the uncertainty and spatial correlation of the loss. This study proposed a new approach for rapidly estimating post-earthquake building loss with reasonable accuracy. The proposed method interpolates ground motion based on the observed ground motion using the Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) as the weight. It samples the building seismic loss quantile considering the spatial loss correlation that is expressed by Gaussian copula, and kriging is applied to reduce the dimension of direct sampling for estimation speed. The proposed approach was validated using three historical earthquake events in Japan with actual loss reports, and was then applied to predict the building loss amount for the March 2022 Fukushima Mw7.3 earthquake. The proposed method has high potential in future emergency efforts such as search, rescue, and evacuation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan has seen a burst of infrastructure development recently due to the increased connection between Asia and East Europe. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor is a project between China and Pakistan aimed to improve the regional infrastructure that would ultimately enhance the connection between Asia and Eastern Europe. However, the active tectonics of Pakistan could put this infrastructure at risk if it is not built to the highest hazard prevention standard. This study reports the ground motion hazard by using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach and the areal seismic source model. The seismic hazard maps of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor in Pakistan are derived using the Cornell–McGuire (1968–1976) approach, which takes into account all earthquakes (25AD-2020) that occurred in Pakistan and nearby regions, the newest ground motion prediction equations, and an updated seismotectonic source model of Pakistan. The final ground motion intensities are attained as peak ground acceleration and 5% damped spectral acceleration at T = 0.2 s and 1.0 s for 475- and 2475-year return periods (estimated for bedrock site conditions). The results are displayed as color-coded maps that represent the amplitude deviation of ground motion. From the spatial evaluation of the maps, a peak ground acceleration value of 0.40–0.52 g for the 475-year return period and a spectral acceleration (0.2 s) value of 1.66–2.13 g for 2475-year return period are mostly observed on the northern and western routes. The central and eastern routes are mostly characterized by a peak ground acceleration value of 0.22–0.24 g for the 475-year return period and a spectral acceleration (0.2 s) value of 0.95–1.13 g due to diffused seismicity and lower number of faults in this region. The ground motion intensity values obtained in this study can be utilized for the seismic design of all kinds of infrastructure and bridges along the CPEC routes in accordance with the Building Code of Pakistan, the International Building codes, and the load and resistance factor design codes published by American Association of the State Highway and Transportation Officials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Active faults accommodate tectonic plate motion through different slip modes, some stable and aseismic, others characterized by the occurrence of large earthquakes after long periods of inactivity. Although the slip mode estimation is of primary importance to improve seismic hazard assessment, this parameter inferred today from geodetic observations needs to be better constrained over many seismic cycles. From an analytical formulation developed for analyzing fault scarp formation and degradation in loosely consolidated material, we show that the final topographic shape generated by one earthquake rupture or by creep (i.e., continuous slip) deviates by as much as 10–20%, despite a similar cumulated slip and a constant diffusion coefficient. This result opens up the theoretical possibility of inverting, not only the cumulated slip or averaged slip rate, but also the number of earthquakes and their sizes from scarp morphologies. This approach is all the more relevant as the number of rupture events is limited. Estimating the fault slip history beyond a dozen earthquakes becomes very difficult as the effect of erosion on scarp morphology prevails. Our modeling also highlights the importance of trade-offs between fault slip history and diffusive processes. An identical topographic profile can be obtained either with a stable fault creep associated with rapid erosion, or a single earthquake rupture followed by slow erosion. These inferences, derived from the simplest possible diffusion model, are likely to be even more pronounced in nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an approach to assess and predict the seismic risk of existing concrete gravity dams (CGDs) considering the ageing effect. The combination of fragility function and cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) depending on two failure states has been used in the analysis. It represents the time-variant degradation of the concrete structure and the conditional change of structural vulnerability in the case of the seismic excitation. Therefore, the seismic risk assessment captures here the nonlinear dynamic behavior of a concrete gravity dam through the fragility analysis. Incremental dynamic analysis for the fragility curves is adopted to state the performance of the dam in terms of different intensity measures. To assess the capacity of the aged concrete gravity dam, this research introduces a way to estimate the CAVlimit of CGDs with varying time. For a case study, an existing concrete gravity dam in Korea has been taken into consideration to apply this approach. The numerical finite element model is validated by optimizing the recorded field data. The proposed approach and its findings will be helpful to CGDs operators to ensure whether a dam needs to stop after a specific time using the extracted mathematical model. Furthermore, as this mathematical model is the function of time, the operator can get an idea about dam conditions at any specific time and can take necessary steps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setback structures are highly vulnerable during earthquakes due to its vertical geometrical and mass irregularity, but the vulnerability becomes higher if the structures also have stiffness irregularity in elevation. The risk factor of such structure may increase, if the structure rests on sloping ground. In this paper, an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic performance of setback structures resting on plain ground as well as in the slope of a hill, with soft storey configuration. The analysis has been performed in three individual methods, equivalent static force method, response spectrum method and time history method and extreme responses have been recorded for open ground storeyed setback building. To mitigate this soft storey effect and the extreme responses, three individual mitigation techniques have been adopted and the best solution among these three techniques is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Post-seismic investigations repeatedly indicate that structures having frequencies close to foundation soil frequencies exhibit significantly heavier damages (Caracas 1967; Mexico 1985; Pujili, Ecuador 1996; L'Aquila 2009). However, observations of modal frequencies of soils and buildings in a region or within a current seismic risk analysis are not fully considered together, even when past earthquakes have demonstrated that coinciding soil and building frequencies leads to greater damage. The present paper thus focuses on a comprehensive numerical analysis to investigate the effect of coincidence between site and building frequencies. A total of 887 realistic soil profiles are coupled with a set of 141 single-degree-of-freedom elastoplastic oscillators, and their combined (nonlinear) response is computed for both linear and nonlinear soil behaviors, for a large number (60) of synthetic input signals with various PGA levels and frequency contents. The associated damage is quantified on the basis of the maximum displacement as compared to both yield and ultimate post-elastic displacements, according to the RISK-UE project recommendations (Lagomarsino and Giovinazzi in Bull Earthq Eng 4(4):415-443, 2006), and compared with the damage obtained in the case of a similar building located on rock. The correlation between this soil/rock damage increment and a number of simplified mechanical and loading parameters is then analyzed using a neural network approach. The results emphasize the key role played by the building/soil frequency ratio even when both soil and building behave nonlinearly; other important parameters are the PGA level, the soil/rock velocity contrast and the building ductility. A numerical investigation based on simulation of ambient noise for the whole set of 887 profiles also indicates that the amplitude of H/ V ratio may be considered as a satisfactory proxy for site amplification when applied to measurements at urban scale. A very easy implementation of this method, using ambient vibration measurements both at ground level and within buildings, is illustrated with an example application for the city of Beirut (Lebanon). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mining-induced seismicity occurs in numerous underground mines worldwide where extraction is conducted at great depths or in areas characterised by complex tectonic structure. It is accompanied by rock bursts, which result in the loss of working functionality and the possibility of accidents among personnel. The issue of a constant and reliable seismic hazard evaluation is of key significance for both the safety of miners and the stability of production. Research on its improvement is directed at developing new interpretive solutions and methods. The nature of the presented solution is the complex interpretation of seismological data that characterise rock mass seismicity and of underground measurement results in the form of a map presenting the longitudinal wave propagation velocity distribution in the rock surrounding the mined coal seam. The solution was tested in hard coal mines located in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. The mines are equipped with a modern seismological system enabling the constant monitoring of seismicity together with hazard level evaluation as well as with seismic apparatus for conducting periodic measurements of the seismic wave propagation velocity before the mining face. Comprehensive seismic hazard evaluation criteria were determined based on the obtained results, involving the anomaly of the Gutenberg–Richter law "b" value and the maximum longitudinal seismic wave propagation velocity in the roof rock. The obtained experience and the result validation of this new comprehensive hazard evaluation method confirm its practical usefulness and indicate the directions of improvement for the solution in question. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The areas prone to geological hazards such as liquefaction need special attention with respect to social vulnerability. Though liquefaction by itself may not result in damage, it may trigger a series of ground failures such as ground oscillation, lateral spread, loss of bearing strength, etc., which cause heavy damage. Globally, during the past few decades liquefaction hazard analysis has become one of the important criteria in seismic risk analysis and mitigation management, especially for urban areas. Greater Chennai is one of the million-plus population cities in India. The city also felt earthquakes/tremors in the past history. Method: The present study aims to assess the social vulnerability of the population density of the Greater Chennai area due to liquefaction susceptibility using GIS technology. The liquefaction susceptibility map (hazard) for the Greater Chennai was prepared by integration of geological and geomorphological parameters and analyzed over socioeconomic parameters (exposure) using an integration of GIS and AHP. Results: The result showed that around 53% of Greater Chennai's households and population are very much exposed to liquefaction hazard. Conclusions: This study can be used as a base level study for decision-making during land use planning as well as disaster mitigation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Microzonation becomes important for big cities like Medan (North Sumatra, Indonesia) as population agglomeration increases in urban areas resulting in rapid and unplanned construction. Mitigation efforts must be carried out to minimize losses arising from earthquakes, such as loss of life and environmental damage, and it can be done by analyzing seismic susceptibility and local site effects. Purpose: This study analyzes the potential for environmental damage caused by seismic hazards in the city of Medan, North Sumatra, Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of the definition and methodology of seismic–geotechnical hazard zoning and the methodology used for making seismic hazard maps with the case study of Medan City. Methods: While determining the zoning, microzonation measurements and environmental data parameters are involved. To obtain comprehensive results, microzonation measurements were carried out using three methods, namely the Multichannel Seismic Analysis Surface Wave (MASW), Spatial Autocorrelation (SPAC), and Horizontal-To-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) with 200 measuring points spread throughout the city of Medan. Parameter weighting values such as population, site class, seismic susceptibility, dominant period, land cover, slope, and weather class were obtained using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Results: We presented the result of the survey, including the MASW, SPAC, and HVSR results. In general, medium soil and soft soil dominate almost all areas of Medan city. The estimated depth of engineering bedrock is at a depth of about 291.33 – 735.87 meters from the ground surface. The dominant period values ranged from 0.0907 s to 8.30723 s. Conclusions: We classified Medan City (North Sumatra) into several zones, based on their seismic vulnerability using local site effect analysis and potential damage due to earthquakes. This study is necessary for future seismic hazard assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of fluid-induced seismicity, various injection parameters have been shown to affect fault behaviour differently, although existing studies about their effects sometimes show contradictory results. Aseismic slip is also known to affect seismicity, but its exact contribution remains elusive. To address these, we perform numerical modelling to understand the effects of injection volume and rate on long-term seismic and aseismic fault slip behavior. Our results suggest that both parameters can affect various aspects of fault behaviour to different extents, and, in some cases, their roles are interdependent, thus they should be examined simultaneously in order to fully characterize their effects on triggered fault responses. Within the model space, we observe the fault predominantly releasing aseismic energy, which plays a significant role in altering the timing of triggered earthquakes that follow and exhibits lasting impacts in subsequent seismic cycles. In terms of seismic responses, increasing injection rate enhances the size of the triggered cluster, while increasing injection volume increases seismicity rate of the sequence. Detailed characterization of the patterns of earthquake occurrence and moment release with respect to different injection parameters can offer insights into establishing safe bounds of injection operation and potentially mitigate seismic hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard maps are crucial for earthquake mitigation and mostly rely on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, the practise and value of PSHA are under debate because objective testing procedures for seismic hazard maps are scarce. We present a lacustrine turbidite record revealing 44 earthquakes over the last ~ 14 ka and use it to test seismic hazard curves in southern Austria. We derive local seismic intensities for paleo-earthquakes by applying scaling relationships between the sedimentary imprint and seismic intensity of well-documented historical earthquakes. The last ~ 2.8 ka of the record agree with a Poissonian recurrence behaviour and therefore a constant hazard rate, which is the modelling choice for standard PSHA. The lacustrine data are consistent with the intensity-frequency relationship of the local seismic hazard curve, confirming the current PSHA approach for this part of Austria. On longer timescales, distinct phases of enhanced regional seismicity occurred, indicating a potential increase of seismic hazard after large earthquakes—a factor hitherto disregarded in the PSHA of the Eastern Alps. Our new method forms an independent procedure to test hazard maps in any setting where suitable lake systems are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]