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The Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk Seismological Regional Information Processing Center (RIPC) recently used the Richter magnitude Mwa to estimate the energy level of Far Eastern earthquakes. To date, this is the most common energy characteristic in the operational catalog of the RIPC. The basis is digital waveforms of regional seismic stations emulated to the characteristics of the Wood–Anderson seismograph. In the present paper, the results of determining the magnitude Mwa in Russian Far Eastern conditions are analyzed. The magnitude determination accuracy is estimated, and station corrections are obtained. The regression relation Mwa and Japanese Meteorological Agency magnitude Mj showed a high similarity between these scales. This made it possible to use Mj as the reference when studying the features of Mwa. The regional seismic network makes it possible to correctly estimate the magnitude Mwa at a regional distance (up to about 1000 km), including for deep-focus earthquakes (up to 600 km). Transfer relations between Mwa and other mass-determined regional energy characteristics of earthquakes are obtained. The Mwa scale can be used to estimate the energy level of any earthquakes in the Kuril–Okhotsk and Sakhalin regions in the magnitude range of weak and moderately strong events and is recommended for inclusion in regional earthquake catalogs for the Russian Far East. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper begins with a critical assessment of the concept of macroseismic intensity, on which traditional scales, such as MSK and EMS, are based. The main shortcoming identified is the model's failure to consider the spectral features of ground motion. This omission may lead to erroneous seismic zonation, as shown in the paper. As a result, the model is of little interest to engineers who must design and build safe structures while adopting economical solutions. The paper presents a way to radically improve this situation. The starting point for this approach was the experience of the destructive Vrancea earthquake of 1977.03.04, which made it clear that intensity appears to be different for structures having natural periods pertaining to different spectral domains. The solution proposed to the shortcomings of the traditional intensity concept is postulated on a system of analytical expressions, covering definitions of global intensities, of intensities related to oscillation frequency and of intensities related to a definite spectral band. The latter definition lies at the basis of a definition of discrete intensity spectra. Illustrative applications are presented, in relation to global intensities and to discrete intensity spectra. We then analyze an illustrative case in which the use of traditional macroseismic survey techniques led to erroneous seismic zonation. Finally, some conclusions and recommendations are presented. Based on the authors' long-term experience, we strongly recommend close interaction between seismologists and engineers in working groups and joint projects targeted on radical improvement of the basic concepts of seismic intensity and of specific analysis procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the parameters including maximum regional magnitude ( M), β-value, mean seismicity rate ( λ) and mean recurrence time were calculated for the Zagros belt. The mapping of parameters shows that there are several seismogenic zones in the Zagros with different seismic activity patterns. The results of calculation of the parameters for each seismogenic regions show that the parameters such as β-value, mean activity rate, annual probability and mean return period of events have been decreased from NW Zagros to SE with exception of Qatar-Kazerun transverse fault zone. This pattern is consistent with the increasing convergent rate from 4.5 ± 2 mm/year in the northwestern to 9 ± 2 mm/year in the southeastern part of the Zagros range (Vernant et al. in Geophys J Int 157:381-398, ). The anomalous values of seismic parameters are observed for the two transverse lineaments of the Zagros, Qatar-Kazerun fault zone and Zagros-Makran transition zone. These zones are characterized by high seismicity rate, low β-value and mean return period of earthquakes. The highest value of M coupled with very low seismic activity rate is observed for the MRF. It seems, in this zone, seismic energy is being released by a few relatively large earthquakes with longer return period. The other regions in the Zagros are characterized by high β-value, low seismicity rates and long recurrence time. The differences in the seismicity parameters are due to differing stress regimes and geological or structural heterogeneity of various parts of the Zagros belt . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Slow earthquakes occur at deep and shallow plate boundaries along the Nankai Trough. Deep slow earthquakes are continuously distributed along the 30–40 km depth contours of the upper surface of the subducted Philippine Sea Plate. In contrast, shallow slow earthquakes occur in limited regions: Hyuga-nada, off Cape Muroto, and southeast off the Kii Peninsula. This review provides an overview of the up-to-date seismological, geodetic, geological, and experimental results in the shallow Nankai area for a unified understanding of the spot-like occurrence of shallow slow earthquakes. Shallow slow earthquakes tend to be distributed in transitional regions between the frictionally locked and stably sliding zones on the plate boundary. Based on geological and experimental studies, the lithology of incoming sediments and their friction coefficients can be variable along the Nankai Trough. Laboratory friction experiments revealed that sediments under shallow plate boundary conditions often exhibit positive (a − b) values, while negative (a − b) is possible via several processes. Subducted seamounts create complex fracture networks and stress shadows in their surrounding areas; however, not all subducted seamounts are related to shallow slow earthquake activities. This incomplete correlation suggests that alternative factors are required to explain the spot-like distribution of shallow slow earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone. High pore fluid pressure conditions around shallow slow earthquake zones were interpreted based on seismological structural studies. In addition, ambient noise monitoring revealed temporal changes in seismic velocity structures associated with shallow slow earthquake migrations. This result suggests a close link between pore fluid migration and shallow slow earthquake episodes. Because transient changes in pore fluid pressure can lead to various slip behaviors, the episodic migration of pore fluid around the plate boundary could promote shallow slow earthquake activity along the Nankai Trough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the variations of apparent resistivity for the period 2000-2005 as obtained by vertical direct-current electrical sounding with an AB separation equal to 300 m. The site was the Dmitrovskoe oil-and-gas field, which is situated on the western coast of the Caspian Sea in a seismic region of Dagestan. Impulsive increases of apparent resistivity at tens of times the measurement error were recorded prior to large (M = 6.8-7.4) earthquakes in the Caspian region. An analysis of the relevant data showed that these impulsive increases in apparent resistivity were unrelated to atmospheric precipitation. Long-lasting atmospheric precipitation can cause decreases in apparent resistivity for periods of several months. The increase of apparent resistivity before large earthquakes is thought to be related to gas emissions from the field along fractured rock zones whose permeability is affected by varying tectonic stresses in the precursory zone of a large earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the basis for a method for estimating the return period of large and medium earthquakes that is independent of current deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The two standard techniques of seismic hazard assessment-probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA)-suffer from limited knowledge of seismic prehistory. A further weakness of PSHA is its requirement of homogeneous seismic activity within a seismic zone. Moreover, PSHA and DSHA were developed for seismically active areas and, thus, cannot reliably be used in areas of medium and low activity. In this paper we propose the combined use of geodetic strain rate data and the seismic moment data set determined for past seismic events. This combination represents a new and independent approach to estimation of future seismic activity. Using a modified version of Kostrov's (Phys Solid Earth 1:23-40, ) equation and the catalogue of seismic moments, the minimum return period of the strongest earthquakes of a source area is estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northern part of Algeria is considered to be the most active seismogenic area in the Western Mediterranean region. This area has a rich history of seismicity and had experienced many destructive earthquakes such as the Chlef (1954), El-Asnam (1980), Beni-Chograne (1994), Aïn-Temouchent (1999) and recently Boumerdes (2003) earthquakes. The earthquake of Aïn-Temouchent on December 22, 1999, was of magnitude 5.7, killed at least 28 people and made thousands of families homeless. Consequent damage was seen in all the structures located in a radius of 30 km. In the city of El-Maleh, located 12 km northeast of Aïn-Temouchent, the 'The National Bank Branch' of El-Maleh suffered moderate damage, but enough to justify questions about its safety. The project of rehabilitating this building required a broad analysis of its static and dynamic, past and present behaviors. The study reported in this paper was a necessary preliminary step toward the development of an optimal retrofit solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Izmir, the third largest city and one of the major economic centers in Turkey, has more than three million residents and one-half million buildings. The city, located in a seismically active region in western Anatolia, was a subject of the 1997 RADIUS (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disaster) project. In this paper, the seismic hazard of Izmir is investigated through probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. First, the seismic setting of Izmir is presented. Considering the statistics of earthquakes that took place in the region during the period 1900-2005, a simple seismic hazard model is used to facilitate the assessment. To account for modeling uncertainties associated with the values of seismicity parameters, a logic tree procedure is employed in carrying out the seismic hazard computations. The resulting weighted average seismic hazard, presented in terms of peak ground acceleration and associated probability of exceedence, could be considered the 'best estimate' of seismic hazard for Izmir. Accordingly, for a return period of 475 years, for rock sites, a PGA value of 0.34 g is calculated. This PGA hazard estimate is close to the current code-recommended design acceleration level for Izmir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard in terms of spectral acceleration ( SA) has been estimated for the first time in northern Algeria. For this purpose, we have used the spatially-smoothed seismicity approach. The present paper is intended to be a continuation of previous work in which we have evaluated the seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration ( PGA) using the same methodology. To perform these evaluations, four complete and Poissonian seismic models have been used. One of them considers earthquakes with magnitudes above M S 6.5 in the last 300 years, that is, the most energetic seismicity in the region. Firstly, seismic hazard maps in terms of SA, at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 sec, with 39.3% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, have been obtained. Therefore, uniform hazard spectra ( UHS) are computed and examined in detail for twelve of the most industrial and populated cities in northern Algeria. All the reported results in this study are for rock soil and 5% of damping. It is noteworthy that, in the seismic hazard maps as well as in the UHS plots, we observe maximum SA values in the central area of the Tell. The higher values are reached in the Chleff region (previously El Asnam), specifically around the location of the destructive earthquakes of September 9, 1954 ( M S 6.8), and October 10, 1980 ( M S 7.3). These maximum values, 0.4 g and 1.0 g, are associated with periods of about 0.2 and 0.3 sec for return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of the distribution of the time t between two consecutive events in a stationary point process. The study is motivated by the discovery of unified scaling laws for t for the case of seismic events. We demonstrate that these laws cannot exist simultaneously in a seismogenic area. Under very natural assumptions we show that if, after rescaling to ensureEt =1, the interevent time has a universal distributionF, thenFmust be exponential. In other words, Corral’s unified scaling law cannot exist in the whole range of time. In the framework of a general cluster model we discuss the parameterization of an empirical unified law and the physical meaning of the parameters involved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— The 1940 (Mw=7.7) and 1977 (Mw=7.4) Vrancea earthquakes (Romania) inflicted heavy damage and casualties in Bucharest and the statistics indicate a recurrence interval of 25 years for Mw ≥ 7.0 events. Under these circumstances, the seismic microzonation represents important information for detailed urban planning that establishes an appropriate level of preparedness to the earthquake threat. This paper reviews the main studies concerning the seismicity of the Vrancea region, the site conditions of the city, the characterization of the building stock, and the codes of practice that regulate the antiseismic design. The first-order microzonation of Bucharest was performed starting from the existing database of structural and geotechnical parameters. New insights originating from direct instrumental observation and interpretation of the local effects as well as realistic numerical modeling that update and improve the input data necessary for a detailed microzoning map of the city are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the seismic catalogue of the local earthquakes which occurred at Somma-Vesuvius volcano in the past three decades (1972–2000). The seismicity in this period can be described as composed of a background level, characterised by a low and rather uniform rate of energy release and by sporadic periods of increased seismic activity. Such relatively intense seismicity periods are characterised by energy rates and magnitudes progressively increasing in the critical periods. The analysis of the b value in the whole period evidences a well-defined pattern, with values of b progressively decreasing, from about 1.8 at the beginning of the considered period, to about 1.0 at present. This steady variation indicates an increasing dynamics in the volcanic system. Within this general trend it is possible to identify a substructure in the time sequence of the seismic events, formed by the alternating episodes of quiescence and activity. The analysis of the source moment tensor of the largest earthquakes shows that the processes at the seismic source are generally not consistent with simple double-couples, but that they are compatible with isotropic components, mostly indicating volumetric expansion. These components are shown to be statistically significant for most of the analysed events. Such focal mechanisms can be interpreted as the effect of explosion phenomena, possibly related to volatile exsolution from the crystallising magma. The availability of a reduced amount of high quality data necessary for the inversion of the source moment tensor, the still limited period of systematic observation of Vesuvius micro-earthquakes and, above all, the absence of eruptive events during such interval of time, cannot obviously permit the outlining of any formal premonitory signal. Nevertheless, the analysis reported in this paper indicates a progressively evolving dynamics, characterised by a generally increasing trend in the seismic activity in the volcanic system and by a significant volumetric component of recent major events, thus posing serious concern for a future evolution towards eruptive activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a model based on multivariate autoregressive forecast of seismicity (MARFS) algorithm is adopted to forecast seismic activity rates in northwest Himalaya, using the compiled homogenized moment magnitude (MW) based catalogue. For this purpose, each source zone delineated by Yadav et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 170:283–295, 2012) is divided into a spatial grid interval of 0.5° × 0.5° while the entire catalogue span (1975–2010) is segregated into six time periods/grids to estimate seismic activity rates spatially and temporally. These seismic activity rates which are estimated from spatial density map of hypocenters exhibit high values in Chaman Fault (Zone 1), Hindukush-Pamir region (Zone 3) and the mega thrust systems, i.e., Main Central Thrust, Main Boundary Thrust and Himalayan Frontal Thrust (Zone 4). Then, the seismic activity rates during 2011–2016 could be forecasted by extrapolating (through auto-regression procedure) those observed for previous time periods. The forecast seismic activity rates are estimated within the values of 0 and 7.57 with high values primarily observed in Hindukush-Pamir region of Zone 3 and the gently north-dipping thrust fault systems (Main Central Thrust, Main Boundary Thrust, Himalayan Frontal Thrust) of Zone 4. Finally, the associated area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics graph suggests the superiority of forecasting model with respect to random prediction, whereas results of the data-consistency test, i.e., N test of our model, exhibit consistency in between the observed and simulated likelihoods. Moreover, the hypothetical t test performed in between the spatial grids of forecast seismic activity rates and observed seismic activity rates confirms that the former is consistent with the latter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given that more than 90% of earthquake fatalities occur in rural environments, one has to rethink how to protect the population. With most rural buildings being one- and two-story dwellings, the earthquake closet (EC) offers an affordable solution as a protection unit. Two recent earthquakes with nearly 100,000 fatalities each are used for estimating the lives that could be saved and how much this would cost. The cost of constructing an EC in a single-family home is taken to be $500–$600 in developing countries. For the "statistical value of life" $1 million is used, a minimum amount given in the literature. The cost of hospitalization is derived from reports after an earthquake. The number of fatalities and injured avoided is estimated for an example earthquake each in China and Pakistan. The estimated dollar savings resulting in large earthquakes reach $18.3 billion at a cost of $1.3 billion, and $10 billion at a cost of $0.5 billion, respectively, in the two examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of scientific views on the structure of the sources of strong earthquakes at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21th century in Russia is considered. The lack of a clear, consistent understanding of the structure of sources of the strongest seismic events was initially typical of the scientific concepts that emerged in the main developed countries. In the 1950s, at the Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the USSR Academy of Sciences, G.A. Gamburtsev formulated a hypothesis about the stability of the seismic regime of a system of seismic sutures over a long period of time (a few hundred years). The seismic sources of the recently studied earthquakes are located in the regions of large faults. With the increase in magnitude, they become more extended and structurally complex. In the considered cases, there are sources that are relatively simply to reconstruct, which encompass the fault planes of the large existing faults (Spitak source, M = 6.8), as well as sources that are more complex, formed in the disjunctive nodes, or those that encompass the crustal blocks. For example, the seismic source of the Altai earthquake (M = 7.3) is characterized by a volumetric structure and is developed along the boundaries of the large seismogenic blocks. The source of the Wenchuan earthquake (M = 7.9) is most complicated. It appears as a three-dimensional (3D) structure composed of a few crustal blocks framed by two extended northeast striking faults and separated by a transverse fault of the northwestern orientation. The sources having a different focal structure differently manifest themselves in the structure of seismic dislocations on the surface and in the distribution of aftershock hypocenters at depth. The anomalously low velocity "pockets" that were identified by the method of local seismic tomography in the source areas of the Spitak and Altai earthquakes and that accompany the main and secondary faults at depth are likely to be the zones of the dynamic influence of these faults. The damaged near-fault zones, with abundant cracks and fractures, are the severely destroyed inclusions in the crustal rocks, and they hamper the propagation of seismic waves. Therefore, within these pockets, the P-waves propagate at a lower velocity than the undamaged geological medium. The results of the paleoseismological study of seismic faults in the trenches showed that strong earthquakes also occurred in the same sources in the past, and the period of recurrence of the strongest seismic events ranges from a few hundred to the first thousand years. Thus, the integrated studies of the source zones of the strongest earthquakes that were conducted in the past decades in different regions of Eurasia have shown that the hypothesis of Gamburtsev has remained relevant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coulomb stress accumulation and releasing history and its relationship with the occurrence of strong historical earthquakes could deepen our understanding of the occurrence pattern of strong earthquakes and hence its seismic potential in future. The sinistral strike-slip Xianshuihe- Xiaojiang fault zone (XXFS) is one of the most dangerous fault zones in China, extending 1 500-km-long from the central Tibetan Plateau to the Red River fault zone. There are 35 M≥6.5 historical earthquakes occurred since 1327, hence it is an ideal site for studying the Coulomb stress evolution history and its relationship with the occurrences of strong earthquakes. In this study, we evaluated the Coulomb stress change history along the XXFS by synthesizing fault geometry, GPS data and historical earthquakes. Coulomb stress change history also revealed different patterns of historical earthquakes on different segments of the XXFS, such as characteristic recurrence intervals along the Salaha-Moxi fault and super-cycles along the Xianshuihe fault. Based on the occurrence pattern of past historical earthquakes and current Coulomb stress field obtained in this study, we suggest positive ΔCFS and hence high seismic potential along the Salaha-Moxi fault and the Anninghe fault. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sequential cumulative moment release data of macroearthquakes (Mw≥4.3) of seventeen seismic zones (A to Q) belonging to NE-Himalaya, Burmese-Andaman arc and West- Sunda arc are analysed by Hurst analysis, a non-parametric statistical procedure to identify clustering of low and high values in a time series. The moment release in a zone occurs in alternate positive, negative and positive sloping segments forming a wave like pattern with intervening small horizontal segment. The negative sloping segments indicate decelerated moment release pattern or temporal slackening of elastic strain release with high b-value (>0.95). The horizontal segment indicates temporal clustering of moderate magnitude events/seismic moments with moderate b-values (0.8-0.95). The positive segment is characterised by accelerated moment release within a short span of time indicating temporal clustering of larger magnitude earthquakes/seismic moments and exhibit lowest b-value (<0.7). All zones attest moderate to high Hurst K values, range 0.7-0.86. The pattern in Hurst plots, specially a reversal of trend after prolong negative slope is used for earthquake prognostication in the seismic zones. Our analysis shows that most of the zones register a notable reversal of Hurst clustering trend after a prolonged negative slope which is accompanied by a major earthquake near its end. However, South Burma region (Zone-I) and Tripura fold belt and Bangladesh Plain (Zone-K) do not show any moderate or large shock around the end of the negative sloping trend in Hurst plot. Hence, these two zones can be considered more prone to produce moderate to larger earthquakes in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This report continues a series of works by the authors on earthquake-prone areas recognition by the algorithmic system FCAZ. For the first time, successive earthquake-prone areas recognition for several magnitude thresholds in the same seismic region is conducted. This can be done by iteratively narrowing the set of recognition objects of the FCAZ system. Earthquake-prone areas for a given magnitude threshold are recognized within zones already recognized as dangerous for a smaller threshold magnitude. The reproducibility of the study is ensured by the fact that at all stages the recognition algorithm remains unchanged. Earthquakeprone areas with magnitude thresholds of М ≥ 5.5, М ≥ 5.75, and М ≥ 6.0 in the Baikal-Transbaikal region are studied successively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forty-six mining-induced seismic events with moment magnitude between −1.2 and 2.1 that possibly caused damage were studied. The events occurred between 2008 and 2013 at mining level 850-1350 m in the Kiirunavaara Mine (Sweden). Hypocenter locations were refined using from 6 to 130 sensors at distances of up to 1400 m. The source parameters of the events were re-estimated using spectral analysis with a standard Brune model (slope −2). The radiated energy for the studied events varied from 4.7 × 10 to 3.8 × 10 J, the source radii from 4 to 110 m, the apparent stress from 6.2 × 10 to 1.1 × 10 Pa, energy ratio ( E / E ) from 1.2 to 126, and apparent volume from 1.8 × 10 to 1.1 × 10 m. 90% of the events were located in the footwall, close to the ore contact. The events were classified as shear/fault slip (FS) or non-shear (NS) based on the E / E ratio (>10 or <10). Out of 46 events 15 events were classified as NS located almost in the whole range between 840 and 1360 m, including many events below the production. The rest 31 FS events were concentrated mostly around the production levels and slightly below them. The relationships between some source parameters and seismic moment/moment magnitude showed dependence on the type of the source mechanism. The energy and the apparent stress were found to be three times larger for FS events than for NS events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude $$m_\mathrm{max}$$ has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, $$m_\mathrm{max}$$ is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for $$m_\mathrm{max}$$ is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating $$m_\mathrm{max}$$ from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seismic spectrum can be constructed by assuming a Brune spectral model and estimating the parameters of seismic moment ( M ), corner frequency ( f ), and high-frequency site attenuation ( κ). Using seismic data collected during the 2010-2011 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence, we apply the non-linear least-squares Gauss-Newton method, a deterministic downhill optimization technique, to simultaneously determine the M , f , and κ for each event-station pair. We fit the Brune spectral acceleration model to Fourier-transformed S-wave records following application of path and site corrections to the data. For each event, we solve for a single M and f , while any remaining residual kappa, $$\kappa_{\text{r}}$$ , is allowed to differ per station record to reflect varying high-frequency falloff due to path and site attenuation. We use a parametric forward modeling method, calculating initial M and f values from the local GNS New Zealand catalog M magnitudes and measuring an initial $$\kappa_{\text{r}}$$ using an automated high-frequency linear regression method. Final solutions for M , f , and $$\kappa_{\text{r}}$$ are iteratively computed through minimization of the residual function, and the Brune model stress drop is then calculated from the final, best-fit f . We perform the spectral fitting routine on nested array seismic data that include the permanent GeoNet accelerometer network as well as a dense network of nearly 200 Quake Catcher Network (QCN) MEMs accelerometers, analyzing over 180 aftershocks M ≥ 3.5 that occurred from 9 September 2010 to 31 July 2011. QCN stations were hosted by public volunteers and served to fill spatial gaps between existing GeoNet stations. Moment magnitudes determined using the spectral fitting procedure ( M ) range from 3.5 to 5.7 and agree well with M , with a median difference of 0.09 and 0.17 for GeoNet and QCN records, respectively, and 0.11 when data from both networks are combined. The majority of events are calculated to have stress drops between 1.7 and 13 MPa (20th and 80th percentile, correspondingly) for the combined networks. The overall median stress drop for the combined networks is 3.2 MPa, which is similar to median stress drops previously reported for the Canterbury sequence. We do not observe a correlation between stress drop and depth for this region, nor a relationship between stress drop and magnitude over the catalog considered. Lateral spatial patterns in stress drop, such as a cluster of aftershocks near the eastern extent of the Greendale fault with higher stress drops and lower stress drops for aftershocks of the 2011 M 6.2 Christchurch mainshock, are found to be in agreement with previous reports. As stress drop is arguably a method-dependent calculation and subject to high spatial variability, our results using the parametric Gauss-Newton algorithm strengthen conclusions that the Canterbury sequence has stress drops that are more similar to those found in intraplate regions, with overall higher stress drops that are typically observed in tectonically active areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake magnitude prediction for Hindukush region has been carried out in this research using the temporal sequence of historic seismic activities in combination with the machine learning classifiers. Prediction has been made on the basis of mathematically calculated eight seismic indicators using the earthquake catalog of the region. These parameters are based on the well-known geophysical facts of Gutenberg-Richter's inverse law, distribution of characteristic earthquake magnitudes and seismic quiescence. In this research, four machine learning techniques including pattern recognition neural network, recurrent neural network, random forest and linear programming boost ensemble classifier are separately applied to model relationships between calculated seismic parameters and future earthquake occurrences. The problem is formulated as a binary classification task and predictions are made for earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 5.5 ( $$M \ge$$ 5.5), for the duration of 1 month. Furthermore, the analysis of earthquake prediction results is carried out for every machine learning classifier in terms of sensitivity, specificity, true and false predictive values. Accuracy is another performance measure considered for analyzing the results. Earthquake magnitude prediction for the Hindukush using these aforementioned techniques show significant and encouraging results, thus constituting a step forward toward the final robust prediction mechanism which is not available so far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By using precise leveling data observed between 1985 and 2010 across the south section of the Longmenshan fault zone, and eliminating the coseismic displacements caused by the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake, the interseismic vertical deformation field was obtained. The result shows that the Lushan region, located between the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault (front range of the Longmenshan fault) and the Xinkaidian fault (south section of the Dayi fault), is situated in the intersection zone of positive and negative vertical deformation gradient zones, indicating that this zone was locked within 25 years before the Lushan earthquake. Based on leveling data across the rupture zone surveyed between 2010 and 2013, and by eliminating the vertical deformation within 3 years before the earthquake, the coseismic vertical displacement was derived. The coseismic vertical displacement for the benchmark DD35, which is closest to the epicenter, is up to 198.4 mm (with respect to MY165A). The coseismic displacement field revealed that the northwest region (hanging wall) moved upwards in comparison with the southeastern region (foot wall), suggesting that the seismogenic fault mainly underwent thrust faulting. By comparing the coseismic and interseismic vertical deformation fields, it was found that the mechanisms of this earthquake are consistent with the elastic rebound theory; the elastic strain energy (displacement deficit) accumulated before the Lushan earthquake was released during this quake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the 20 April 2013 Lushan M 6.6 earthquake occurred, investigation and identification of the seismogenic fault for this event have become a focused and debatable issue. This work prepared an initial landslide inventory map related to the Lushan earthquake based on field investigations and visual interpretation of high-resolution aerial photographs and provided evidence for solving the issue aforementioned. The analysis of three landslide-density profiles perpendicular to strike direction of the probable seismogenic fault shows that many landslides occurred on the footwall of the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault (SDF), without sudden change of landslide density near the fault. Very few landslides were detected near the Dayi fault (DF) and also no change of landslide density there. While obvious sudden change of landslide density appeared about 1-2 km from the northwest to the western Shangli fault (WSF), and the landslide density on the hanging wall of the fault is obviously higher than that of on the footwall. Therefore, we infer that the seismogenic fault for the Lushan earthquake is neither the SDF nor the DF, rather probably the WSF located between these two faults, which is an evident linear trace on the earth surface. Meanwhile, the coseismic slip did not propagate upward to the ground, implying the Lushan earthquake was spawned by a blind-thrust-fault beneath the WSF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In seismically active regions, faults nucleate, propagate, and form networks that evolve over time. To simulate crustal faulting processes, including the evolution of fault-zone properties, a rheological model must incorporate concepts such as damage rheology that describe the various stages of the seismic cycle (strain localization, subcritical crack growth and macroscopic failure) while accounting for material degradation and healing and off-fault deformation. Here we study the fundamental patterns of strain-localisation within the framework of a continuum damage rheology by performing a shear band analysis (linear instability analysis) and comparing predictions of shear band orientations with numerical results of the nonlinear problem. We find (analytically and numerically) that the angle between the shear band and the less compressive (transverse) direction is between 47° in compression tests with a strain ratio of 0.25 (highly confined compression test), and 60° for a strain ratio higher than 1.4 (axial compression and transverse extension). In addition we find that shear bands exhibit local dilation ( I > 0) in a wide range of strain ratios excluding only simulations with highly confined compression (which yield compacting shear bands or non-localized deformation). Finally, we discuss the applicability of the damage model for simulating deformation in the seismogenic, brittle crust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial-temporal distributions of earthquakes in the Kuril-Okhotsk region were analyzed. The events with Ms ≥ 4 from 1980 until 2009 and Ms ≥ 7 from 1910 until 2009 (20576 and 76 earthquakes, respectively) were studied. The specially developed program complex allowed us to obtain the 4-D distribution of the seismic events (along the sections, depths, temporal intervals, and energetic levels). It was shown that the seismic events obviously tend to cluster both along the surface and depth directions. The spatial-temporal analysis of the events (with Ms ≥ 4) in six five-year intervals from 1980 until 2009 has revealed a cyclic increase and decrease in the seismic activity in different time intervals and its cyclic migration from the South through the Central to the North Kuriles and back. The analysis of the strong events with Ms ≥ 7 in twenty 5-year intervals during 1910-2009 has shown that their amount significantly decreased for the last 30 years and the location of the hypocenter depths also changed (only shallow-focus earthquakes have been observed since 1975). The peaks of the seismic activity (1915-1919, 1955-1969, and 2005-2009) are separated by 35-year periods of its decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This investigation was undertaken to assess the sensitivity of the Hazus-MH (v2.0) earthquake model to model parameters and to guide the selection of these parameters for realistic earthquake-loss assessment in the central USA. To accomplish these goals, we performed several sensitivity analyses and a validation assessment using earthquake damage surveys from the 2008 M5.2 Mt. Carmel, Illinois earthquake. We evaluated the sensitivity of the Hazus-MH earthquake model to the selection of seismic hazard data, attenuation function, soils data, liquefaction data, and structural fragility curves. These sensitivity analyses revealed that earthquake damage, loss, and casualty estimates are most sensitive to the seismic hazard data and selection of the attenuation function. The selection of the seismic hazard data and attenuation function varied earthquake damages and capital-stock losses by ±68 % and casualty estimates by ±84 %. The validation assessment revealed that Hazus-MH overpredicted observed damages by 68-221 % depending on the model parameters employed. The model run using region-specific soils, liquefaction, and structure fragility curves produced the most realistic damage estimate (within 68 % of actual damages). Damage estimates using default Hazus-MH parameters were overpredicted by 155 %. The uncertainties identified here are similar to uncertainties recognized in other Hazus-MH validation assessments. Despite uncertainties in Hazus-MH earthquake-loss estimates, such estimates are still useful for planning and response so long as the limitations of the results are properly conveyed to planners, decision makers, emergency responders, and the public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore fractal properties of two observed seismicity distributions prior to the 2003 M 7.4 Colima, Mexico and 1992 M 7.3 Landers, USA earthquakes, together with several mathematical fractal distributions and two non-fractal ones, in order to estimate minimum reliable sample sizes, determine whether fractality for observed seismicity is essentially different from random uniform distributions, and explore the possibility of extracting premonitory information from fractal characteristics of seismicity before large earthquakes. Sample sizes above 800 events for whole catalogs appear to be sufficient to maintain ordered multifractality and to yield dimension estimates that vary smoothly and reliably. Fractal estimates appear to be best for whole catalogs that include aftershocks. The fractal characteristics of spatial distributions of seismicity are essentially different from those of the uniform random distribution, which is the null hypothesis of a non-fractal distribution with minimum information. The fractal dimensions and afractality measures of seismicity distributions change with time and show distinctive behaviors associated with foreshocks and main events, although these behaviors are different for each example. Results suggest the possibility of a priori identification of foreshocks to large earthquakes. A combination of fractal dimension and afractality measures over time may be helpful in large earthquake premonitory studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard maps are constructed by extrapolating from the frequency of small earthquakes, the annual probability of large, infrequent, earthquakes. Combining the potential contribution from all seismically active volumes, one calculates the peak ground acceleration with a probability to be exceeded by 10 % in 50 years at any given point. The consequential risk, the losses to be expected, derives from the damage the calculated shaking causes to buildings, and the impact on occupants due to collapsing structures. We show that the numbers of fatalities in recent disastrous earthquakes were underestimated by the world seismic hazard maps by approximately two to three orders of magnitude. Thus, seismic hazard maps based on the standard method cannot be used to estimate the risk to which the population is exposed due to large earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been proclaimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If aseismic slip occurs on a fault or its deeper extension, both seismicity and crustal deformation around the source would be affected. Anomalous phenomena of this kind are revealed from earthquake occurrence data and geodetic records during a period of 10 years leading up to the March 2005 M 7.0 earthquake west of Fukuoka that occurred off the northern coast of Kyushu, Japan. Seismicity rate anomalies (quiescence and activation) took place relative to the rates expected by the ETAS model in a number of seismic zones in and around the Kyushu District. The seismic zone of the relative quiescence and activation consistently corresponds to the zone of the negative and positive ΔCFS (Coulomb failure stress change), respectively, assuming the precursory aseismic slips on the M 7.0 source fault. In addition, we consider the time series of geodetic baseline distances between permanent GPS stations in the Kyushu District for the same period, which also supports the possible precursory slips rather than the known slow slips beneath the Bungo Straight, off the eastern coast of Kyushu. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poisson Hidden Markov models (PHMMs) are introduced to model temporal seismicity changes. In a PHMM the unobserved sequence of states is a finite-state Markov chain and the distribution of the observation at any time is Poisson with rate depending only on the current state of the chain. Thus, PHMMs allow a region to have varying seismicity rate. We applied the PHMM to model earthquake frequencies in the seismogenic area of Killini, Ionian Sea, Greece, between period 1990 and 2006. Simulations of data from the assumed model showed that it describes quite well the true data. The earthquake catalogue is dominated by main shocks occurring in 1993, 1997 and 2002. The time plot of PHMM seismicity states not only reproduces the three seismicity clusters but also quantifies the seismicity level and underlies the degree of strength of the serial dependence of the events at any point of time. Foreshock activity becomes quite evident before the three sequences with the gradual transition to states of cascade seismicity. Traditional analysis, based on the determination of highly significant changes of seismicity rates, failed to recognize foreshocks before the 1997 main shock due to the low number of events preceding that main shock. Then, PHMM has better performance than traditional analysis since the transition from one state to another does not only depend on the total number of events involved but also on the current state of the system. Therefore, PHMM recognizes significant changes of seismicity soon after they start, which is of particular importance for real-time recognition of foreshock activities and other seismicity changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatiotemporal behaviour of earthquakes within continental plate interiors is different from that at plate boundaries. At plate margins, tectonic motions quickly reload earthquake ruptures, making the location of recent earthquakes and the average time between them consistent with the faults’ geological, palaeoseismic and seismic histories. In contrast, what determines the activation of a particular mid-continental fault and controls the duration of its seismic activity remains poorly understood. Here we argue that the concentration of magnitude-7 or larger earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone of the central United States since the end of the last ice age results from the recent, climate-controlled, erosional history of the northern Mississippi embayment. We show that the upward flexure of the lithosphere caused by unloading from river incision between 16,000 and 10,000 years ago caused a reduction of normal stresses in the upper crust sufficient to unclamp pre-existing faults close to failure equilibrium. Models indicate that fault segments that have already ruptured are unlikely to fail again soon, but stress changes from sediment unloading and previous earthquakes may eventually be sufficient to bring to failure other nearby segments that have not yet ruptured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently the equilibrium property of ergodicity was identified in an earthquake fault system (T iampo et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 238501, ; Phys. Rev. E 75, 066107, ). Ergodicity in this context not only requires that the system is stationary for these networks at the applicable spatial and temporal scales, but also implies that they are in a state of metastable equilibrium, one in which the ensemble averages can be substituted for temporal averages when studying their behavior in space and time. In this work we show that this property can be used to identify those regions of parameter space which are stationary when applied to the seismicity of two naturally-occurring earthquake fault networks. We apply this measure to one particular seismicity-based forecasting tool, the Pattern Informatics index (T iampo et al., Europhys. Lett. 60, 481–487, ; R undle et al., Proc. National Acad. Sci., U.S.A., Suppl. 1, 99, 2463, ), in order to test the hypothesis that the identification of ergodic regions can be used to improve and optimize forecasts that rely on historic seismicity catalogs. We also apply the same measure to synthetic catalogs in order to better understand the physical process that affects this accuracy. We show that, in particular, ergodic regions defined by magnitude and time period provide more reliable forecasts of future events in both natural and synthetic catalogs, and that these improvements can be directly related to specific features or properties of the catalogs that impact the behavior of their spatial and temporal statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two of the long-standing relationships of statistical seismology are power laws: the Gutenberg–Richter relation describing the earthquake frequency–magnitude distribution, and the Omori–Utsu law characterizing the temporal decay of aftershock rate following a main shock. Recently, the effect of stress on the slope (the b value) of the earthquake frequency–magnitude distribution was determined by investigations of the faulting-style dependence of the b value. In a similar manner, we study here aftershock sequences according to the faulting style of their main shocks. We show that the time delay before the onset of the power-law aftershock decay rate (the c value) is on average shorter for thrust main shocks than for normal fault earthquakes, taking intermediate values for strike-slip events. These similar dependences on the faulting style indicate that both of the fundamental power laws are governed by the state of stress. Focal mechanisms are known for only 2 per cent of aftershocks. Therefore, c and b values are independent estimates and can be used as new tools to infer the stress field, which remains difficult to measure directly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An earthquake sequence at the transform plate boundary in South Iceland, that included two magnitude 6.5 earthquakes in June 2000, was anticipated on the basis of a centuries-long seismicity pattern in the area. A program of radon monitoring in geothermal water from drill holes, initiated in 1999, rendered distinct and consistent variations in radon in association with these events. All seven sampling stations in a 50 × 30 km zone covering the epicentral area showed a consistent pattern. Four types of change could be identified: 1) Preseismic decrease of radon. Anomalously low values were measured 101–167 days before the earthquakes. 2) Preseismic increase. Spikes appear in the time series at six stations 40–144 days prior to the earthquakes. These anomalies were large and unusual if compared to a 17-years history of radon monitoring in this area. 3) Coseismic step, most likely related to the coseismic change in groundwater pressure observed over the entire area. 4) Postseismic return of the radon values to the preseismic level about three months later, also concurrent with groundwater pressure changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

- Analysis of the Koyna-Warna earthquake catalog (1968-1996) shows that on an average there is a positive correlation between thebvalue (decrease) and fractal dimensions (decrease in bothD2s and D2t) of earthquake epicenters 0.5 and 2.5 years prior to 1973 (M5.2) and 1980 (M5.5) events, respectively, except a negative correlation for about five years (1988-1993) prior to the 1993/1994 sequence (M5.4). This positive correlation indicates a weaker clustering, or that the epicenters tend to fill the two-dimensional plane. While the origin of the negative correlation seems to be that during periods of large events (lowbvalue), there is strong clustering around the main shock epicenter (high fractal dimension). Interestingly, during the last year (1995-1996) of the studied period both thebvalue and correlation dimensions rose significantly, suggesting that stress release occurs through increased levels of low magnitude and increasingly scattered seismicity, suggesting an increased risk of larger magnitude events. Incidentally, during 2000 three earthquakes of magnitudeM= 5.0, one earthquake ofM4.0, 45 earthquakes of magnitudeM3.0-3.9, and several thousand earthquakes ofM<3 have occurred in the region. Thus it can be inferred that at local scales the relationship yields both positive and negative correlation that appears to be controlled by different modes of failure within the active fault complex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

- It has long been realized that the linear Gutenberg-Richter model arduously describes the frequency-magnitude relationship for the magnitude span ranging from small to large earthquakes because of the breakdown of the self-similarity rule due to the cha [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South Iceland seismic zone is, roughly speaking, situated between two sections of the mid-Atlantic ridge, i.e., the Reykjanes Ridge southwest of Iceland and the Eastern Volcanic Zone on the island. It is a transform zone, where earthquakes are expected to occur on E-W-trending left-lateral shear faults, equivalent to conjugate, N-S-oriented right-lateral, rupture planes. In fact, earthquakes take place on en-échelon N-S-oriented faults, which is indicated by the distribution of main shock intensities, aftershocks as well as by surface fault traces. The stress field continuously generated in the fault zone by opening of the adjacent ridges is computed and superimposed on the stress field changes induced by a series of 13 earthquakes (M ≥ 6) between 1706 and 2000. The level of the pre-seismic stress field is analysed as well as the size of the area under high stress. Finally, the post-seismic stress field of June 2000 is analysed, to see where high stresses might have accumulated. The modelling indicates that the rupture planes located on separated parallel N-S-striking zones are dense enough to lead to an area-wide stress release by the series of events. The obtained pre-seismic stress level for most events is high and stable with the exception of situations when several strong shocks occur over a time span of several days, i.e., display typical main shock-aftershock patterns. The size of areas under high stress aside from of the rupture plane, i.e., where no event occurs at the specific time, is of medium to small size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— We estimate the theoretical site response along seven cross sections located in the city of Thessaloniki (Greece). For this purpose the 2-D structural models used are based on the known geometry and the dynamic soil properties derived from borehole measurements and other geophysical techniques. Several double-couple sources have been employed to generate the seismic wavefield, and a hybrid method that combines the modal summation with finite differences, has been deployed to produce synthetic accelerograms to a maximum frequency of 6 Hz for all components of motion. The ratios between the response spectra of signals derived for the 2-D local model and the corresponding spectra of signals derived for the 1-D bedrock reference model at the same site, allow us to estimate the site response due to lateral heterogeneities. We interpret the results in terms of both geological and geometrical features of the models and of the characteristics of the wave propagation. The cases discussed confirm that the geometry and depth of the rock basement, along with the impedance contrast, are responsible for ground amplification phenomena such as edge effects and generation and entrapment of local surface waves. Our analysis also confirms that the peak ground acceleration is not well correlated with damage and that a substantially better estimator for possible damage is the spectral amplification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— To check the reliability and the quality of the theoretically estimated ground responses obtained from the 2-D simulation by the application of the hybrid method in PART-I, we compare some of them with those obtained at the same sites from observed data using the Standard Spectral Ratio (SSR). The comparison validates our synthetic modeling and shows that in cases of complex geometries, the use of at least 2-D numerical simulations is required in order to reliably evaluate site effects and thus facilitate the microzonation of the city of Thessaloniki. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— For the realistic modeling of the seismic ground motion in lateral heterogeneous anelastic media, the database of 3-D geophysical structures for Beijing City has been built up to model the seismic ground motion in the City, caused by the 1976 Tangshan and the 1998 Zhangbei earthquakes. The hybrid method, which combines the modal summation and the finite-difference algorithms, is used in the simulation. The modeling of the seismic ground motion, for both the Tangshan and the Zhangbei earthquakes, shows that the thick Quaternary sedimentary cover amplifies the peak values and increases the duration of the seismic ground motion in the northwestern part of the City. Therefore the thickness of the Quaternary sediments in Beijing City is the key factor controling the local ground effects. Four zones are defined on the base of the different thickness of the Quaternary sediments. The response spectra for each zone are computed, indicating that peak spectral values as high as 0.1 g are compatible with past seismicity and can be well exceeded if an event similar to the 1697 Sanhe-Pinggu occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A study of seismic anisotropy was performed using data from earthquakes of the Mexicali Valley. The investigated region encompasses the Cerro Prieto Geothermal Field (CPGF), one of the most important fields in the world. The results showed that at most of our stations the average polarization directions of the fast S waves range from N14°W to N17°E. A N-S polarization direction was obtained for the whole area by averaging the polarization directions from all stations used. In terms of the EDA hypothesis, this average trend agrees with the postulated state of stress for southern California, and with fault plane solutions for events of the Mexicali Valley. Notorious deviations from the N-S global trend were found southeast of the CPGF, with polarization trends between N25°E and N67°E, and in the geothermal field, with polarization directions between N7°W and N14°W. The polarization results for these zones indicated stress conditions that are different from the more regional stress pattern. The delay times that were measured between the fast and slow shear waves reached values of up to 0.6 sec, with a mean value of 0.35 sec. Consistent with our polarization results, the larger delay times (0.2–0.6 sec) were found in the CPGF. Smaller or null values were observed at the periphery of the study area. No temporal trends in the delay times were apparent, as shown by data from the two stations that recorded the larger number of events. Overall, we conclude that the splitting effects of this study result from a shallow anisotropy volume. The splitting results are thus interpreted as caused by the preferred orientation of vertical fluid-filled microcracks aligned in a direction that is parallel to the regional stress field. The stronger splitting effects that were observed in the area of the CPGF were found consistent with the geothermal reservoir that is embedded in the sedimentary cover of the zone, at depths of 1 to 4–5 km from the surface. We thus believe that such marked splitting effects have a direct relation with the reservoir of the CPGF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the focal mechanism solutions and spatial distributions of 100 intermediate-depth earthquakes are examined and discussed. These earthquakes occurred from 1985 to 1993 mostly in the upper and lower planes of the double seismic zone beneath the southeastern part of Hokkaido. The focal-mechanism solutions along with the spatial distribution of their epicenters as a function of depth and the minimum- and maximum-compressive stress directions confirm the following essential features; A double-planed deep seismic zone between the depths from 60 to 120 km has been clearly revealed in this region and the number of earthquakes located in the upper plane are less than those for the lower one. Low-angle thrust fault mechanism is dominant to a depth of about 55–60 km in the zone. At depths deeper than about 60 km focal mechanism solutions are mostly characterized by down-dip extension type or down-dip compression type in both lower and upper planes of the zone. Most of the earthquakes deeper than 60 km have dip-slip components and some of the solutions have significant strike-slip components, as well. Although the down-dip extensional-type events are dominant, seven events that are located on the lower plane are constrained as down-dip compression mechanism. The T axes of earthquake focal mechanisms on the lower plane show extension at about N40°E and N35°W, and the dip-angle between 25° and 70°, almost coincide with the dip of the subducting Pacific Plate in this region. We also investigate the statistical features of the stress directions of the earthquakes occurring both on the lower and upper plane after converting all the events onto the plane having the same strike and dip angle as the subducting lithosphere in the region. Seventy-two percent of the minimum compressive stress directions are oriented mainly in the NS or NNE- SSW directions (within 45° of the dip direction) at the plate surface of the lower plane and are almost parallel to the dip of the local slab in this region. The number of earthquakes located in the upper plane is less than that for the lower one. Those which occurred on the upper plane show various types of mechanism solutions. Weak systematic orientation is found in the direction distribution of stress in the upper plane. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]