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The establishment of a unified earthquake catalog is a basic requirement for attaining a detailed seismological analysis and an improved seismic hazard assessment. Accordingly, the current research paper aims to present a reliable instrumental unified earthquake catalog for the northern part of Algeria. This unified catalog is compiled using regional empirical relationships derived from converting different magnitude scales to an advanced physical-based moment magnitude scale suggested in the recent literature and denoted by Mwg. The regression methodology used in this study is called the New General Orthogonal Regression approach (N.GOR), which was selected since it is the most trustworthy procedure for scaling the magnitudes to Mwg. To highlight the significance of using the N.GOR, the obtained outcomes of the scaling relations were compared with those issued from the conventional general orthogonal regression (GOR) method, which is deemed to be the most dependable methodology used worldwide for magnitude conversion problems. The unified earthquake catalog was assembled from 1954 to 2022. Reliably converting the original magnitudes into homogenized moment magnitude leads to a complete and consistent unified earthquake catalog. Indeed, the unified moment magnitude catalog presented in this paper could provide reliable data for studying earthquakes distribution and the assessment of seismic hazards in the north of Algeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bucaramanga seismic nest has the highest concentration in volume of intermediate depth seismic events with light and moderate magnitudes (Mb > 4.8) worldwide. Despite the nest depth (Zhypo ≥ 100 km), these events play a crucial role in the seismic hazard assessment for several cities in northern South America (NoSAm), particularly those situated close to their epicenters. Moreover, these earthquakes are widely felt across the country, even hundreds of kilometers away from the nest. This paper assesses the performance of commonly used subduction intraslab Ground Motion Models (GMMs) in predicting the updated nest database gathered and processed by the Colombian Geological Survey. This analysis confirms the necessity of a partially non-ergodic ground motion model for estimating the spectral accelerations produced by Bucaramanga nest earthquakes in northern South America. The GMM presented herein is the first model developed specifically for seismic nests in the region and is conceived as a regionalization of the recent NGA-Sub Abrahamson and Gülerce (Earthq Spectra 38(4):2638−2681, 2022) GMM. Additionally, we provide estimates of the variance components at both the earthquake and station levels and compare the developed GMM with the spectral accelerations recorded for typical earthquakes, for the highest magnitude earthquake in the database, and for a recent Bucaramanga nest earthquake having a moment magnitude over 5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regional seismic risk assessment plays an important role in the disaster prevention and mitigation. The accurate time-history analysis for a region provides an important data base for regional seismic risk assessment. However, an accurate calculation method is limited, then, its accuracy still lacks validation. Meanwhile, there is also a lack of risk assessment methods and indicators applicable to the regional accurate time-history analysis, both of which hinder the seismic risk assessment. In this paper, a regional-scale time history analysis-driven method is proposed for the quantitative evaluation of regional seismic damage risk and verified with a real earthquake damage survey. First, the regional time history analysis method is introduced, including the automatic modeling, response calculating, result analysis and 3-D visualization modules. Second, a calculation method for seismic damage degrees (DD) of buildings is introduced. Subsequently, the probabilistic models of each DD under the ground motions with a specific intensity are calculated based on regional-scale nonlinear time history analysis. Next, the concept of the three-level seismic damage risk is offered, then a determining workflow of seismic damage risks is proposed based on the code-abiding three-level design requirement. Afterward, the regional seismic damage index is suggested for the quantitative evaluation of earthquake-induced damage risk. Finally, the actual seismic damage database of 192 buildings in epicenter of Ludian Earthquake is established through on-site investigations, then used to verify the regional simulation's accuracy. Consequently, it could be an aid to accurately present seismic damage distribution assessments and effectively develop seismic risk mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The track structure has an effect on the dynamic characteristics of the bridge structure, which makes the seismic response of the bridge structure complicated. In this paper, an assessment method is proposed to evaluate the seismic risk of bridge structure, including over-limit risk and over-limit scale. Based on a newly proposed simplified model with high accuracy and high computational efficiency, a total of 3000 calculation conditions are analyzed and the sample stability of response is validated to ensure the reliability of the seismic risk analysis. The seismic risks in the longitudinal direction of the track-bridge model are compared with that of the trackless model, and the influence of the constraint effect of China Railway Track System II ballastless track structure on the seismic risk of the structure is obtained. The influence of the number of spans and PGA on track constraints is also revealed. The analysis results, based on a large number of samples, show that although track constraints can reduce the seismic risk of some phenomenon, such as girders' collision, the expected enhancement of longitudinal seismic safety of the system cannot be guaranteed in general, especially when the number of spans is large. However, it is noted that the track constraint can effectively control the over-limit scale of the system, which can reduce the expected repair cost after an earthquake. Therefore, it can be considered that the positive effect of the track constraints is more significant in economy than in structural safety when the bridge is subjected to a longitudinal earthquake excitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the actual seismic economic losses of regional building portfolios is essential to quantify the seismic resilience of urban and rural areas. Various building clusters indicate different damage levels under real earthquakes of different intensities, which directly leads to apparent anomalies in the actual economic losses of various building portfolios. This paper proposes an economic loss assessment model for large-scale regional building portfolios, considering the damage probability matrices. The traditional empirical vulnerability quantification method is optimized and updated by combining the analysis methods of probability risk, reliability, macroseismic intensity, and instrument intensity. Five typical building sample sets (total survey area: 56,937.1893 × 104 m2) of 57 typical cataclysmic earthquakes that occurred in Yunnan Province, China, from 1993 to 2022 are collected and processed, and an updated fragility dataset is established. The calculation model considering empirical structural vulnerability and economic loss quantitative parameters is innovatively developed. Combined with the quantitative approaches of the multidimensional nonlinear fitting model and the established regional empirical structural vulnerability database, the seismic loss evaluation model of large-scale regional structures is established. Ultimately, the earthquake loss point cloud and matrix of typical building portfolios in the large-scale zone are developed using cloud analysis and the proposed seismic loss evaluation model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—The paper presents the results of a study showing that anomalies in the seismic regime parameters before earthquakes of various magnitudes occur in stages. The occurrence in stages means the correlation between the times of formation and development of anomalies in various seismic regime parameters. Earthquakes in regions with two general types of tectonics are selected for analysis: in the subduction zone (Kamchatka and Japan) and in the rift zone (Iceland). The selection of regions is primarily based on the availability and quality of regional seismic catalogs. GR b-value and the composite parameter known as the RTL are used as the seismic regime parameters. The detection of spatiotemporal anomalies before the selected earthquakes is based on the known "precursory patterns" of the seismic regime parameters. Comparing the durations of the detected anomalies shows that the anomalies of b-value generally occur earlier than the RTL anomalies. Possible reasons why the anomalies occur in stages are suggested. In the vicinity of the studied earthquakes, a change in the seismogenic rupture concentration parameter within the corresponding seismic cycles is also estimated. Comparing the times at which the detected seismic regime anomalies occur with the values of the seismogenic rupture concentration parameter corresponding to these times shows that the formation of seismic regime anomalies occurs at a stage when the system of seismogenic ruptures accumulated during the seismic cycle has almost reached its critical value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses how residents can safely access shelters from their buildings. Firstly, we investigated Xiaying Village, a typical community with severe buildings damage at the epicentre of the Ms5.0 magnitude earthquake in Tonghai that occurred on August 13, 2018, and found that the injured residents when escaping resulted from the damage to masonry buildings. Secondly, a probabilistic approach combining response spectrum and allowable maximum acceleration is proposed to estimate the damage risk of masonry buildings with inadequate seismic performance in old communities. Thirdly, three models are proposed to assess the risk of the escape path, which include all scenarios of the escape of residents to shelters. Finally, an accessibility analysis of the paths that residents may choose to escape to the shelter is presented. The results of the community escape case study in the Tonghai earthquake show that the probabilistic approach to estimating the escape risk is feasible, and the number of damaged buildings in the escape path dictates the accessibility of residents to the shelter. The proposed method is important for guiding old community residents to escape when a strong earthquake strikes, and it is an effective way to improve community disaster resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview and introduction to the development of non-ergodic ground-motion models, GMMs. It is intended for a reader who is familiar with the standard approach for developing ergodic GMMs. It starts with a brief summary of the development of ergodic GMMs and then describes different methods that are used in the development of non-ergodic GMMs with an emphasis on Gaussian process (GP) regression, as that is currently the method preferred by most researchers contributing to this special issue. Non-ergodic modeling requires the definition of locations for the source and site characterizing the systematic source and site effects; the non-ergodic domain is divided into cells for describing the systematic path effects. Modeling the cell-specific anelastic attenuation as a GP, and considerations on constraints for extrapolation of the non-ergodic GMMs are also discussed. An updated unifying notation for non-ergodic GMMs is also presented, which has been adopted by the authors of this issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment of churches based on empirical data at a territorial scale is a suitable tool to have an overview of the seismic behaviour of this peculiar structural typology and to evaluate their current state of vulnerability. Fragility and vulnerability curves are also aimed to perform the analysis of different seismic scenarios. The paper presents a detailed typological analysis of 633 single-nave churches, as a selected subset of the database previously examined by the authors, with the aim of evaluating more in detail the influence of some parameters, such as masonry typology, church dimensions and presence of the bell tower, on the vulnerability of the overall church. Then, specific analyses are carried out to assess the influence played by single mechanisms on the definition of the overall damage index, with the focus of providing qualitative evaluations and explicit vulnerability and fragility curves related to the most recurring and significant collapse mechanisms. This is an original contribution of the paper in the field of the vulnerability assessment of churches, since nowadays little information is available in the literature about the damage levels related to specific mechanisms, while most attention is still focused on global damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses and compares two recently developed methodologies for the prediction of damage accumulation in structures subjected to multiple earthquakes within their lifetime, one based on a regression model and one based on a Markov-chain based approach. A stochastic earthquake hazard model is considered for generating sample sequences of ground motion records that are then used to estimate the probabilistic distribution of the damage accumulated during the time interval of interest using the various methodologies. A simulation-based approach provides a reference solution against which the other methodologies are compared. Besides assessing the effectiveness and accuracy of the two methodologies, some improvements of the regression model are proposed and evaluated. The comparison between the methodologies is carried out by examining a reinforced concrete (RC) bridge pier model and using the Park–Ang damage index to describe the damage accumulation. The study results demonstrate the importance of considering the possibility of occurrence of multiple shocks in estimating the life-cycle performance of structures and highlight strengths and drawbacks of the investigated methodologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—The paper presents the results of many years of research on the compilation of a consolidated, refined, unified earthquake catalog for the western sector of the Russian Arctic for the entire instrumental observation period, in particular for the period from 1908 to 2020. The catalog includes data on recent seismicity in areas previously unavailable for detailed seismic monitoring. Based on the results of the study, we were able to more accurately determine the spatial distribution of seismicity in the region and compare the instrumental data with parameters of lineament-domain-focal (LDF) models of the General Seismic Zoning maps (GSZ, from Russian term abbreviated as OSR)—OSR-97 and OSR-2016. In the western sector of the Russian Arctic, the highest seismicity is observed in the continent-ocean transition zone, in the Belyi (Kvitøya) Island, Novaya Zemlya and Severnaya Zemlya archipelagos. The very shelf of the Barents and Kara Seas is characterized by rare and scattered seismicity. The configuration, the maximum possible magnitudes, and the depths of the seismogenic layers in the LDF models of OSR-97 and OSR-2016 maps are not always consistent with the instrumental data and need a correction. The consolidated refined earthquake catalog can be used as a basis for the further research aimed at seismic hazard assessment of the territory, construction of geodynamic models, and study of the stress-strain state of the Earth's crust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new method to approach earthquake hypocenter studies based on Chaos Game Representation (CGR), a method initially used for making fractal structures and applied for studying DNA sequences. Applying the CGR method, this study aims at checking whether any relation exists between earthquakes occurring in different depth ranges in a seismically active area. For this purpose, the seismically active areas around the Indian tectonic plate were used. The CGR images gave characteristic patterns, implying that the occurrence of earthquakes in some specific depth range combinations showed higher preference. Statistical data on the frequency of different depth range combinations were derived from these plots. We put forward a mathematical value which we call proximity index, to compare the similarity between two different CGR plots. Proximity index values were used to compare the similarity in seismic activity in two different zones by comparing their respective CGR plots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores and validates the use of ground shaking scenarios generated via 3D physics-based numerical simulations (PBS) for seismic fragility studies. The 2009 L'Aquila seismic event is selected as case-study application, given the availability of a comprehensive post-earthquake database, gathering observed seismic damages detected on several building typologies representative of the Italian built environment, and of a validated numerical model for the PBS of ground shaking scenarios. Empirical fragility curves are derived as a function of different seismic intensity measures, by taking advantage of an improved statistical technique, overcoming possible uncertainties in the resulting estimates entailed by data aggregation. PBS-based fragility functions are compared to the corresponding sets of curves relying on updated ShakeMaps. The predictive capability of the adopted simulation strategies is then verified in terms of seismic damage scenarios, by respectively coupling PBS- and ShakeMap-based fragility models with the corresponding ground shaking scenarios. Comparison of observed and predicted damage distributions highlights the suitability of PBS for region-specific seismic vulnerability and risk applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In May 2012, two strong earthquakes hit the northern Italy revealing the significant seismic vulnerability of precast reinforced concrete structures and causing severe damage and many collapses, and high economic losses. After the lesson learnt from these events, more reliable seismic design criteria have been established for the design of new structures and different approaches have been proposed for the seismic assessment of the existing structures. In this context, the paper presents the results of a first application of the PRESSAFE-disp method, recently proposed by the authors, allowing to define the fragility curves of precast RC buildings at various limit states, including collapse. A stock of 91 precast buildings in the industrial area of San Felice sul Panaro (Modena) was selected as a benchmark case study to verify the reliability of the method in assessing seismic damage scenarios. In particular, with reference to the 2012 seismic ground-motion, two large-scale stochastic models are outlined to predict the number of the buildings collapsed in the area. The first one is based on a Monte Carlo simulation which incorporates the evaluation of the uncertainties, while the second one is a direct simplified calculation. Comparative considerations on the outcomes of the two methods for different seismic intensities are discussed, including the directionality effect of the ground-motion. To test the soundness of the simulations, the results of the two methods are compared with the real data collected through in-situ surveys. The procedures proposed here result, on average, in good agreement with the observed damage scenario. It is worth noting that, due to the inherent simplicity of the methods, they could be implemented to perform scenario-based seismic loss assessments to estimate the financial consequences of an earthquake affecting one or more industrial areas, and to drive the decision-making process for the seismic retrofit of existing precast RC buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the first time, a numerical comparison of the General Seismic Zoning (GSZ) maps with the effect of earthquakes that actually occurred after the publication of the maps was carried out. The area of zones of expected intensity on the GSZ map is compared with the area of isoseists from actual earthquakes. It turned out that the isoseist area is on average by an order less than expected according to the GSZ. This paper describes possible reasons for such an overestimation and proposes ways to improve seismic hazard assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a multi-platform simulation method for the seismic performance assessment of masonry infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frames, especially for those that, due to inadequate reinforcing details, tend to undergo shear failure during an earthquake. The multi-platform method is based on a micro–macro modeling approach in which a detailed finite element model of the RC frame is incorporated with a strut model of the infill wall. It exploits the strut model to increase its computational efficiency and the finite element model based on the modified compression field theory to capture the nonlinear behaviour of the RC frame. The proposed method is validated against previously tested frames subjected to lateral loads, and its advantages over the conventional strut models are demonstrated through both quasi-static and dynamic analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we outline the overview of the problem of intraplate seismicity and summarize our studies aimed at identifying potential earthquake sources in three regions located in continental environments. We study the French Massif Central situated within the West-European platform, the Gujarat area located at the northwestern edge of the Indian shield, and northeast Egypt located in the northeastern part of the African continent. These regions exhibit different levels of seismic activity. The French Massif Central reveals the lowest rate of seismicity, northeast Egypt exposes a low-to-moderate seismicity, and Gujarat reveals moderate seismicity with rare occurrence of strong events. We use a phenomenological approach for identifying possible locations of earthquakes, which is based on the pattern recognition applied to morphostructural data. The approach hypothesizes the nucleation of strong earthquakes at morphostructural nodes forming at the intersections of morphostructural lineaments, which are delineated by morphostructural zoning. Nodes are characterized by the pertinent geophysical and geological parameters, on the basis of which pattern recognition algorithm pinpoints capable nodes, i.e., the nodes where events of a certain sizes may occur. Seismic hazard assessment of continental regions is impeded because their seismic history is normally very pure. In such a situation, information on capable nodes is a necessary input for seismic hazard assessment. The example of northeast Egypt shows the exploiting capable nodes to assess seismic hazard by the Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment Methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard maps from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis or PSHA collect, at different sites, the values of the (site-specific) ground motion intensity measures of interest that, taken individually, have the same exceedance return period. For large-scale analyses, a widely used intensity measure is the macroseismic (MS) intensity, that provides an assessment of the earthquake effect based on the observed consequences in the hit area. Hazard maps can be developed in terms of MS intensity, and some examples exist in this respect. In the case of Italy, the last MS hazard map is based on the same seismic source model (known as MPS04) adopted to derive the design seismic actions of the current building code, a study dating more than ten years ago. It provides results in terms of countrywide Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) intensity level with 475 years return period. This short paper presents and discusses MCS probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Italy based on a recent grid-seismicity source model, herein named MPS19, synthetizing the large effort of a wide scientific community. The results, which are obtained by means of classical PSHA, are given in the form of maps referring to the 475 years return period, and also others of earthquake engineering interest. Moreover, it is discussed that the return period does not univocally identifies the MS intensity because, although MS is, by definition, a discrete random variable, it is modelled, in a given earthquake, by means of a normal distribution, that is, treated as continuous. Thus, the maps of the minimum return period causing the occurrence or exceedance of different MCS intensities are also provided. Finally, the comparison between the 475 years return period hazard map presented and the one which is currently the point of reference in Italy, that is, computed using MPS04, is briefly discussed. All the computed maps are made available to the reader as supplemental material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seismic assessment of the vulnerability of existing public structures, especially school buildings, is a crucial issue in seismic prone countries. Recently, several national and regional programs and activities have focussed on the mitigation of Italian public buildings. They promote the scheduling of public buildings' structural safety assessment and, when needed, the design and execution of strengthening interventions. Nevertheless, the three strong earthquakes that occurred in the last decade in Italy, Abruzzo (2009), Emilia (2012), and Central Italy (2016), confirmed the vulnerability of school buildings and the social importance of their quick re-opening after a damaging earthquake. In the present paper, the activities carried out on 1514 school building structures in the aftermath of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence are reported and analysed. According to survey data collected by post-earthquake usability inspections, the paper analyses the school buildings characteristics, damage level and extent to structural and non-structural components as well as the correlation between seismic intensity and observed damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents new materials and summarizes existing ones on archeoseismology studies of stony walls conducted in the Alabash-Konurolyong intramountain depression (southwestern Issyk-Kul Lake region, the northern Tien Shan). The remnants of a sublatitudinal stone wall north of the village of Kyoksay, the remnants of buildings on the Duvana pass, the "long" submeridional wall north of the village of Alabash, and ruins of the fortress of the same name located on the Alabash pass have been studied. The deformations allow us to proceed to quantitative characteristics of two seismic events that occurred in the 15th and 18th centuries. The significant PGV values (on average, 1–3 m/s) are in good agreement with results of an analysis of data on the strong ground motions and correspond to the nearest near-fault zone. These values, in accordance with the morphostructural and other paleoseismologic data, point to the vicinity (within the limits of a few kilometers) of the corresponding seismogenic fault generating them and to the development of thrust deformations of compression. Paleoseismologic data, in particular, the results of PGV value assessments, indicate the significantly larger seismic hazard of the southern shore of the Issyk-Kul Lake depression than is shown in the modern map of seismic hazards of Kyrgyzstan. We assess seismic intensity values for our investigated localities as I = 9.0 ± 0.5. Thus, according to preliminary paleoseismology data, the seismicity level of the southern part of the Issyk-Kul Lake basin is analogous to the seismicity of its northern part. These data can be used in reevaluating the seismic hazard of the investigated territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nuclear power plants (NPP) play increasing role in power supply worldwide. To meet demands of the human society, the NPPs have to be built where the energy is required, including seismoactive regions. Therefore, the safety issues related to reliable assessment of earthquake hazard are crucial. The basic concept of seismic hazard assessment is that the seismic regime is stable, i.e. the prediction of future hazard is defined by the past observations. As a consequence, huge efforts are spent to get seismic history as long as possible. Palaeoearthquake studies can provide information on past earthquakes occurred 15,000–20,000 years before present. But for such time-intervals, the basic concept might be wrong, at least for certain regions. For example, for regions where earthquakes in the past were generated due to post-glacial processes — the geodynamic situation there today is different now. So, the time-arrow of geodynamic evolution has to be somehow incorporated in hazard assessment. In hazard assessment very rare occurrences are taken into account now: such as having 10−5 or 10−6 annual frequencies of occurrence (return period 100,000–1,000,000 years). This demands very accurate interpretation of the nature of past seismic event. In the paper, some examples are given when effects similar to earthquakes can be caused by other natural phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of the scarcity of recorded seismic ground motions from Vrancea intermediate-depth source that can be used in designing a structure, engineers are bound to use scaled, artificial, or simulated accelerograms. Out of these options, the first two might incompletely account for the phenomena that may appear. Although complicated, simulated accelerograms provide one of the best options for defining the seismic demand in engineering design, but further research is needed to adapt the simulation methods to the source, path, and site-specific characteristics. As some parameters used in simulations were not addressed yet specifically for the Vrancea-intermediate seismic source, the specific path duration is investigated in this paper. Using a database with the recorded ground motions from March 4, 1977, August 30, 1986, May 30 and May 31, 1990, October 27, 2004 Vrancea earthquakes (the only five recorded earthquakes with moment magnitudes at least equal to 6), the path and magnitude dependent duration specific to Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source to be used in the stochastic simulation is developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the significance of rupture-plane uncertainty in the estimated ground-motion intensity measures (IMs) by using the centroid moment-tensor and fault-plane solutions as well as the ground-motion recordings of the 30 October 2020 Samos Earthquake. We sampled ground-motion fields using stochastically generated rupture planes by considering the uncertainties imposed from alternative fault-plane solutions to reach our objective. Our observations indicate that the compromise between rupture-plane uncertainty and variability in the predicted ground-motion IMs depends on the modeling complexity of the ground-motion predictive model (GMPM). It also depends on the spatial location of the site relative to the ruptured fault. This conclusive remark is important for modelers who perform regional or site-specific seismic hazard and risk analyses. The presented case studies are also useful for GMPM developers because the ground-motion models contain predictor parameters, the most ubiquitous one is source-to-site distance, that are affected from rupture-plane geometry. Depending on the level of model complexity, the number of predictor parameters affected from rupture-plane geometry can increase and therefore the estimated ground-motion IMs can become more prone to rupture-plane uncertainty. Confined to our case-specific observations, we intend to make some suggestions to hazard, risk, and GMPM modelers for the consideration of rupture-plane uncertainty at the end of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper considers the results of a study of modern strong earthquakes (1991 Racha, 2006 Olyutor, 2003 Altai, and 2011–2012 Tuva) according to a single methodological plan. The need for such studies is dictated by constantly increasing requirements on the accuracy of predicting hazardous natural impacts. Analysis of the seismotectonic conditions of the locations of sources of strong earthquakes made it possible to identify geological structures and thus form an idea of the morphotectonic criteria for identifying potential sources in other regions. Modern earthquakes have continued the development of different-scale tectonic structures directly expressed in the modern relief. These activated structures form regular combinations inscribed in morphostructures of different scales. The displacements during modern earthquakes continue the development of morphostructures traced throughout the Middle Pleistocene–Holocene. The size and number of morphostructures involved in seismic activation are directly related to the magnitude of an event and reflect the specific hierarchical level of seismogenesis. In order to assess the seismic hazard, it is important that the presence or absence of pronounced active faults on the surface does not directly reflect the level of seismic hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to theory, earthquakes may produce disturbances in surrounding areas and affect the major earthquake occurrence rate of surrounding faults. The MS 6.6 Jinghe Earthquake on 9th August, 2017 occurred in the Tienshan Seismic Belt where there is much tectonic activity and many strong earthquakes occur. The impact of this earthquake on major earthquake activity of surrounding areas is worth studying. This paper attempts to combine two models: the Brownian passage-time (BPT) model, which describes the quasi-periodic recurrence of major earthquakes, and the Coulomb Failure Stress model, which describes rock failure on faults. The amount of change in the rate of major earthquake occurrence caused by a nearby earthquake was calculated, and changes in major earthquake activity in the surrounding areas after the Jinghe Earthquake were re-estimated. There are few differences in major earthquake occurrence rate change by stress disturbances calculated with the BPT model or the Coulomb Failure Stress model. Calculation results are consistent with actual earthquake cases. The 2017 Jinghe Earthquake increased major earthquake activity on the Boluokenu Fault and Yili Basin North Fault, and the expected major earthquake recurrence times of the two faults were advanced by 11 years and 59 years, respectively. Conclusions of this paper provide a reference for time-dependent seismic hazard assessments in related areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Europe, computation of displacement demand for seismic assessment of existing buildings is essentially based on a simplified formulation of the N2 method as prescribed by Eurocode 8 (EC8). However, a lack of accuracy of the N2 method in certain conditions has been pointed out by several studies. This paper addresses the assessment of effectiveness of the N2 method in seismic displacement demand determination in non-linear domain. The objective of this work is to investigate the accuracy of the N2 method through comparison with displacement demands computed using non-linear time-history analysis (NLTHA). Results show that the original N2 method may lead to overestimation or underestimation of displacement demand predictions. This may affect results of mechanical model-based assessment of seismic vulnerability at an urban scale. Hence, the second part of this paper addresses an improvement of the N2 method formula by empirical evaluation of NLTHA results based on EC8 ground-classes. This task is formulated as a mathematical programming problem in which coefficients are obtained by minimizing the overall discrepancy between NLTHA and modified formula results. Various settings of the mathematical programming problem have been solved using a global optimization metaheuristic. An extensive comparison between the original N2 method formulation and optimized formulae highlights benefits of the strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—The paper addresses the problems associated with the maximum earthquakes in a seismically active region. Pisarenko and Rodkin (2009; 2010; 2015) proposed an alternative to the ambiguously determined parameter of the maximum regional magnitude Mmax in the form of a clearly defined and statistically substantiated parameter of the maximum possible magnitude of an earthquake in a given region on a given future time interval T. In this work, we study the statistical characteristics of this parameter—quantiles with a given confidence level q. For the first time, the estimates for the bias, standard deviation, and root mean square deviation of these quantiles are conducted on a large set (1000) of independent samples (synthetic catalogs) with known distribution law. This allowed us to compare the true accuracy of the resulting estimates with that obtained in the case of using one catalog for which the distribution law is not known. The real efficiency of the quantile estimates is assessed from the examples with the exact known quantile values, and stability and robustness of these quantiles as an informative and important characteristic of seismic risk is demonstrated. The conducted comparisons make it possible to estimate the scatter of the quantiles in the region of large times T and with very high confidence levels q. The quantile estimates of the maximum possible events in a future time interval are substantially more robust at a stronger downward bend of the frequency–magnitude graph. A relationship is derived between the quantiles of a single earthquake and the quantiles of a maximum earthquake in the future time interval T. This relationship establishes the equivalence between the length of interval T and the level of significance (reliability) q, which in the case of heavy-tailed distributions should be taken into account in seismic risk assessment. The statistical analysis is carried out using two different methods of parameter estimation: by maximum likelihood estimation and by Bayesian approach. Both methods proved to be approximately equally efficient. Based on these methods, it is concluded that the estimate of the long-term seismic hazard for the regions with a distinctly pronounced downward bend of the frequency–magnitude graph is fairly stable and robust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite significant research advances on the seismic response analysis, there is still an urgent need for validation of numerical simulation methods for prediction of earthquake response and damage. In this respect, seismic monitoring networks and proper modelling can further support validation studies, allowing more realistic simulations of what earthquakes can produce. This paper discusses the seismic response of the "Pietro Capuzi" school in Visso, a village located in the Marche region (Italy) that was severely damaged by the 2016–2017 Central Italy earthquake sequence. The school was a two-story masonry structure founded on simple enlargements of its load-bearing walls, partially embedded in the alluvial loose soils of the Nera river. The structure was monitored as a strategic building by the Italian Seismic Observatory of Structures (OSS), which provided acceleration records under both ambient noise and the three mainshocks of the seismic sequence. The evolution of the damage pattern following each one of the three mainshocks was provided by on-site survey integrated by OSS data. Data on the dynamic soil properties was available from the seismic microzonation study of the Visso village and proved useful in the development of a reliable geotechnical model of the subsoil. The equivalent frame (EF) approach was adopted to simulate the nonlinear response of the school building through both fixed-base and compliant-base models, to assess the likely influence of soil–structure interaction on the building performance. The ambient noise records allowed for an accurate calibration of the soil–structure model. The seismic response of the masonry building to the whole sequence of the three mainshocks was then simulated by nonlinear time history analyses by using the horizontal accelerations recorded at the underground floor as input motions. Numerical results are validated against the evidence on structural response in terms of both incremental damage and global shear force–displacement relationships. The comparisons are satisfactory, corroborating the reliability of the compliant-base approach as applied to the EF model and its computational efficiency to simulate the soil–foundation–structure interaction in the case of masonry buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A great number of local newspapers and periodicals of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries contributed to the survival of information related to the earthquakes that occurred in Algeria during those periods. These documents which often relay the information from official institutions provide fruitful seismological accounts allowing a sound reappraisal of Algeria seismicity in terms of the estimation of macroseismic parameters. A recent systematic documentation on the Algeria seismicity revealed the occurrence of more than 650 earthquakes that were not reported in the previous seismological compilations, from 1844 onward, despite their significant number. In this paper we provide a quick overview on the newspapers and periodicals that existed at that time and from which fruitful information were retrieved and focus on the most significant events that we newly found. A careful analysis of the historical records allowed the estimation of the intensity of these earthquakes, which globally ranges from V to VIII EMS. These new results augment the seismological knowledge in Algeria and will certainly have implications for seismic hazard assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The May 11th 2011, Lorca earthquake in Southeastern Spain was a moderate magnitude event (Mw 5.1) yet it caused nine fatalities, more than 300 injuries and more than 462 million euros in economic loses. Peak ground accelerations as well as response spectral ordinates far exceed expected values from various ground motion prediction models. In particular, spectral ordinates computed from recorded ground motions significantly exceed those in current Spanish probabilistic seismic hazard models, as well as those in the Spanish and European building codes. The objective of this paper is to assess directivity effects on ground motions recorded during the 2011 Lorca earthquake, and to evaluate the significance of these effects in earthquake resistant design on moderate seismic regions. In the first part of this paper, we study the likelihood of the presence of a directivity pulse, by conducting a comparison of different parameters of recorded ground motions to analytical pulses. In the second part, we relate the recorded ground motion and its inelastic displacement spectra to some recent statistical models that try to capture the displacement demand features of earthquakes presenting directivity-pulse characteristics. It is shown that simple analytical pulses are capable of reproducing very well pulse-type near-fault ground motions recorded during the event. It is concluded that directivity effects played a major role in the large impact caused by this relatively small event. Furthermore, directivity effects which are typically ignored, both in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and in most building codes, may lead to important underestimations of ground motions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In regions that undergo low deformation rates, as is the case for metropolitan France (i.e. the part of France in Europe), the use of historical seismicity, in addition to instrumental data, is necessary when dealing with seismic hazard assessment. This paper presents the strategy adopted to develop a parametric earthquake catalogue using moment magnitude Mw, as the reference magnitude scale to cover both instrumental and historical periods for metropolitan France. Work performed within the framework of the SiHex (SIsmicité de l’HEXagone) (Cara et al. Bull Soc Géol Fr 186:3-19, 2015. doi:10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3) and SIGMA (SeIsmic Ground Motion Assessment; EDF-CEA-AREVA-ENEL) projects, respectively on instrumental and historical earthquakes, have been combined to produce the French seismic CATalogue, version 2017 (FCAT-17). The SiHex catalogue is composed of ~40,000 natural earthquakes, for which the hypocentral location and Mw magnitude are given. In the frame of the SIGMA research program, an integrated study has been realized on historical seismicity from intensity prediction equations (IPE) calibration in Mw detailed in Baumont et al. (submitted) companion paper to their application to earthquakes of the SISFRANCE macroseismic database (BRGM, EDF, IRSN), through a dedicated strategy developed by Traversa et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017. doi:10.1007/s10518-017-0178-7) companion paper, to compute their Mw magnitude and depth. Macroseismic data and epicentral location and intensity used both in IPE calibration and inversion process, are those of SISFRANCE without any revision. The inversion process allows the main macroseismic field specificities reported by SISFRANCE to be taken into account with an exploration tree approach. It also allows capturing the epistemic uncertainties associated with macroseismic data and to IPEs selection. For events that exhibit a poorly constrained macroseismic field (mainly old, cross border or off-shore earthquakes), joint inversion of Mw and depth is not possible, and depth needs to be fixed to calculate Mw. Regional a priori depths have been defined for this purpose based on analysis of earthquakes with a well constrained macroseismic field where joint inversion of Mw and depth is possible. As a result, 27% of SISFRANCE earthquake seismological parameters have been jointly inverted and for the other 73% Mw has been calculated assuming a priori depths. The FCAT-17 catalogue is composed of the SIGMA historical parametric catalogue (magnitude range between 3.5 up to 7.0), covering from AD463 to 1965, and of the SiHex instrumental one, extending from 1965 to 2009. Historical part of the catalogue results from an automatic inversion of SISFRANCE data. A quality index is estimated for each historical earthquake according to the way the events are processed. All magnitudes are given in Mw which makes this catalogue directly usable as an input for probabilistic or deterministic seismic hazard studies. Uncertainties on magnitudes and depths are provided for historical earthquakes following calculation scheme presented in Traversa et al. (2017). Uncertainties on magnitudes for instrumental events are from Cara et al. (J Seismol 21:551-565, 2017. doi:10.1007/s10950-016-9617-1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The companion paper by Rota and Rosti (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017) illustrates a methodology for comparing PSH results with historical macroseismic observations at different scales, in terms of mean damage. This paper presents examples of application of the methodology, at the different considered scales, to the South-East quarter of France. This moderate seismicity region is characterised by a long history of civilization, which makes macroseismic observations available for a long time span, although they are highly approximated measures of the seismic action and they are affected by significant uncertainties. The first scale of application presented is at a single site, i.e. the city of Annecy. This example shows that, despite the seismic history of this city is characterised by a significant number of macroseismic observations spanning over a long time period, they mostly consist of very low intensity values and hence the comparison at a single site is not very meaningful. Therefore, the comparison is carried out on a set of seven aggregated sites, well distributed in the region of interest, providing interesting results and suggesting the opportunity of extending the comparison at an even larger scale. The comparison at the regional scale also allows some interesting observations, although it is obviously able to only provide general (average) indications on the PSH results. These comparisons were aimed at showing the applicability of the proposed methodology, pointing out advantages and drawbacks of the different application scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of seismic hazards relies on the statistical analysis of historical seismic data and the instrumental seismic catalog to obtain the regional earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake probability. The accuracy of analysis thus depends strongly on the completeness of the seismic data used. However, available seismic catalogs are too short or incomplete for the reliable analysis of the statistical characteristics of earthquakes. If a long-term synthetic seismic catalog can be generated using a physics-based numerical simulation, and the simulation results match the crustal deformation, seismicity, and other observations, then such a synthetic catalog helps us to further understand the characteristics of seismic activity and analyze the regional seismic hazard. In this paper, taking the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study, we establish a three-dimensional visco-elastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and the spatiotemporal evolution of earthquakes on the model fault system and obtain a seismic catalog on a time scale of tens of thousands of years. On the basis that the model satisfies the regional geodynamics of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we analyze seismicity on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau using the simulated synthetic earthquake catalog. The characteristics of earthquake recurrence at different locations and different magnitudes, and the long-term average probability of earthquake occurrence within the fault system on the northeastern Tibetan plateau are studied. The results are a reference for regional seismic hazard assessment and provide a basis for the physics-based numerical prediction of earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest in small-to-medium magnitude earthquakes and their potential consequences has increased significantly in recent years, mostly due to the occurrence of some unusually damaging small events, the development of seismic risk assessment methodologies for existing building stock, and the recognition of the potential risk of induced seismicity. As part of a clear ongoing effort of the earthquake engineering community to develop knowledge on the risk posed by smaller events, a global database of earthquakes with moment magnitudes in the range from 4.0 to 5.5 for which damage and/or casualties have been reported has been compiled and is made publicly available. The two main purposes were to facilitate studies on the potential for earthquakes in this magnitude range to cause material damage and to carry out a statistical study to characterise the frequency with which earthquakes of this size cause damage and/or casualties (published separately). The present paper describes the data sources and process followed for the compilation of the database, while providing critical discussions on the challenges encountered and decisions made, which are of relevance for its interpretation and use. The geographic, temporal, and magnitude distributions of the 1958 earthquakes that make up the database are presented alongside the general statistics on damage and casualties, noting that these stem from a variety of sources of differing reliability. Despite its inherent limitations, we believe it is an important contribution to the understanding of the extent of the consequences that may arise from earthquakes in the magnitude range of study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction cities must take measures to anticipate disasters and mitigate their impact, protecting homes and cultural heritage, minimizing losses due to earthquakes and other threats. After the recent earthquakes in historical city centres, the evaluation of the seismic risk, even in regions of low or moderate seismicity, is imperative, being damage assessment and loss estimation essential for its reduction. In this paper the seismic risk analysis of the residential buildings in the Ciutat Vella District in Valencia, with great historical and architectural value, is presented. The vulnerability of Ciutat Vella has been assessed with the Vulnerability Index Method establishing the seismic quality of the residential buildings according to their structural typology, conservation status, age and geometry; identifying the most vulnerable buildings. Damage probability matrices have been obtained for the deterministic and probabilistic earthquake scenarios, estimating for each of them, the seismic risk in terms of direct social and economic losses, mapping the results using a GIS system tool. Results confirm that the vulnerability of the building stock in Ciutat Vella is high being the seismic risk significant. In the event of an earthquake, many residential buildings included in the Catalogue of Listed Buildings of the Special Protection Plan of Ciutat Vella will be damaged. The detailed analysis of the most vulnerable buildings will provide, in future research works, criteria for intervention to enhance their structural seismic response, safeguarding the architectural heritage and contributing to the reduction of human and material losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Damage scenarios for the main events of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence have been simulated. In order to describe the seismic performance of the as-built in the area, the mechanic based method simplified pushover-based earthquake loss assessment has been adopted. This methodology has been extensively validated by means of comparison between numerically calculated damage scenario and observed damage. These data have been collected during the surveys in areas hit by earthquakes in Italy in the last 40 years (starting form 1976 Friuli earthquake until 2012 Emilia earthquake). The calculation of damage scenario has been performed in a user friendly WebGIS platform developed for the Italian Department of Civil Protection. The paper gives an overview of methods and informatics tools prior to present the results of the damage scenario. The results of damage scenarios are summarized in tables, charts and maps. Further, improvements of the tools now available are also identified for future developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic events that struck Italy in the last years had a dramatic impact on historical and cultural heritage. Damage occurred on existing masonry buildings, in particular on churches, stressed out the need to better understand the seismic behaviour of this type of constructions as well as to define more appropriate mitigation strategies to be applied at large scale. This study deals with a predictive methodology for vulnerability assessment of churches in large territorial areas. Focusing the attention on three naves churches of Abruzzi, the paper proposes modifications and integrations of an existing methodology taken by literature. These modifications are defined through a calibration procedure based on damage observation of 64 three naves churches located at different distances from the epicentre of the 2009 earthquake. The proposed model is employed to predict damage level distribution for different earthquake intensities, allowing fragility curves to be plotted and therefore potential damage scenarios to be represented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both the April 6, 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake, and the 2010-2011 Canterbury (New Zealand) earthquake sequence provided unprecedented opportunity to enhance the understanding on earthquake performance of infrastructure systems, and to analyse still-opened issues affecting the post-earthquake assessment and management of infrastructure. This paper provides a succinct and holistic overview on the physical and functional performances of the gas, water, waste water, road and electric networks (this one to a limited extent for the L'Aquila case-study), following the moment magnitude (M) 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake, and two main events of the Canterbury earthquake sequence, namely: the M 7.1 September 4, 2010 Darfield and the M 6.2 February 22, 2011 Christchurch earthquakes. A structured format, based on internationally recognised taxonomies and damage descriptors, is introduced to present the assets and to report on the earthquake-induced physical impacts for both above-ground and underground components. Functional impacts, interdependency issues and resilience attributes observed during the emergency management and recovery phases for the same infrastructure systems are furthermore discussed in the paper. It is envisaged that the data and overview on the seismic performance and management of infrastructure systems presented in the paper can be used to test the effectiveness of existing models and to inform the development of new models for seismic risk assessment and resilience analysis. Also, the structured framework presented within this paper can form the basis for defining specific and standardised survey tools for post-earthquake assessment of infrastructure systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2010 Mw = 8.8 Maule earthquake, which occurred in the subduction contact between the Nazca and the South American tectonic plates off the coast of Chile, represents an important opportunity to improve understanding of the distribution and controls for the generation of landslides triggered by large megathrust earthquakes in subduction zones. This paper provides the analysis of the comprehensive landslide inventory for the Maule earthquake between 32.5° S and 38.5° S. In total, 1226 landslides were mapped over a total area of c. 120,500 km2, dominantly disrupted slides. The total landslide volume is c. 10.6 Mm3. The events are unevenly distributed in the study area, the majority of landslides located in the Principal Andean Cordillera and a very constrained region near the coast on the Arauco Peninsula, forming landslide clusters. Statistical analysis of our database suggests that relief and lithology are the main geological factors controlling coseismic landslides, whilst the seismic factor with higher correlation with landslide occurrence is the ratio between peak horizontal and peak vertical ground accelerations. The results and comparison with other seismic events elsewhere suggest that the number of landslides generated by megathrust earthquakes is lower than events triggered by shallow crustal earthquakes by at least one or two orders of magnitude, which is very important to consider in future seismic landslide hazard analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the evaluation of intensity dependent site amplification factors for Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes to be used in the seismic hazard assessment of Romania in the light of the future revision of Eurocode 8. The site conditions for more than 120 sites in Romania are evaluated using as parameter the fundamental site period T0 obtained using horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio. Next, the period- and intensity-dependent site amplification factors to be used for design purposes are derived based on ground motion recordings from Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes and considering the nonlinear soil effects, as well. The results show considerable differences, especially for site class D sites when compared with the values proposed for crustal earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical quantification of observed seismicity is important for understanding earthquake dynamics and future risk in any seismic-prone region. In this paper, we implement the idea of nowcasting (Rundle et al. in Earth and Space Science 3:480–486, 2016) to examine the current uncertain state of earthquake hazard assessment in the seismically active Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjacent regions. First, we utilize the concept of "natural time" (Varostos et al. in Physical Review E 71:032102, 2005), rather than clock time, to develop a statistical distribution of inter-event counts of "small" earthquakes occurring between "large" earthquakes. Using relevant statistics of natural time, we then calculate the earthquake potential score (EPS) as the cumulative number of small earthquakes since the last large event in the selected region. The EPS, which provides the nowcast value for a region, reveals the current state of earthquake hazard in that region. Therefore, by indirect means, the EPS provides us with a simple yet transparent estimation of the current level of seismic progress through the regional earthquake cycle of recurring events in a geographical area. To illustrate the nowcasting approach in the study region, we computed EPS values for the two most seismically exposed megacities, Dhaka and Kolkata, considering events of M ≥ 4 within a radius of 250 km around their respective city centers. We found that the current EPS values corresponding to M ≥ 6 events in Dhaka and Kolkata were approximately 0.72 and 0.40, respectively. The practical applicability of these values is discussed in conjunction with sensitivity analysis of the threshold magnitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical earthquakes in developing countries, particularly in South America, have caused devastating effects in essential buildings, such as hospitals. As a result, some structural retrofits and new designs of essential facilities in South American countries have concentrated on increasing the seismic design forces beyond what is normally required by building codes. This increased-strength approach can lead to quasi-elastic structural response during earthquakes with much larger induced floor accelerations than expected from code-designed structures. In critical structures, sub-par performance of critical non-structural elements, such as medical equipment in a hospital, due to high-induced floor accelerations can have consequences as devastating as structural failures. Passive seismic protection systems, such as seismic isolation, provide a practical means of controlling seismic demand and are now common in developed countries. However, the applications of protection systems have been far fewer in developing countries due to economic considerations and lack of technical expertise. This paper presents the experimental and numerical studies supporting the development of a novel low-cost sustainable protection system incorporating recycled automobile tires for isolating designated floors or rooms in essential buildings in developing countries. The main innovation of the proposed floor isolation system is the geometric arrangement of the rubber tires that allows isolation from both, horizontal and vertical floor accelerations. Horizontal and vertical cyclic testing conducted on tire specimens are first described followed by the development of a numerical model able to reproduce the experimental results. Finally, an existing case-study hospital in Ecuador is considered for evaluating numerically the seismic performance of the proposed floor isolation system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to most of current design standards, the need for high strength and ductility of reinforced concrete frame structures is accomplished utilizing a high amount of transverse reinforcement in beam-column joints. Reinforcement congestion can be overcome by means of Fiber Reinforced Concrete and High Performance Fiber Reinforced Concrete, which are known to improve the structural performance of single structural members or beam-column joints. Through an extended numerical simulation, this paper elaborates the overall benefits of using fiber reinforced concrete materials in critical regions to the seismic behaviour of regular reinforced concrete frame structures. An extensive number of non-linear static and dynamic analyses with distributed plasticity and fibre sections are performed to compare the behaviour of simple reinforced concrete and mixed reinforced concrete/fiber reinforced concrete frames in terms of total base shear and fragility curves and failure mechanisms. Even if execution and technological aspects are beyond the scope of the present work, the use of fiber reinforced concretes in critical regions of mixed frames seems to improve the structural performance of reinforced concrete frames at a global level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquakes trigger other earthquakes and build up clusters in space and time that in turn create a bias in seismic catalogues. Therefore, declustering is considered as a prerequisite in seismic studies, particularly for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, not only to eliminate the bias but also to decouple mainshocks and triggered events. However, a declustering process is not a straightforward task due to the complex nature of earthquake phenomena. There exist several declustering methods that mostly employ subjective rules to distinguish between background seismicity and offsprings. Eventually, the final declustered catalogues usually deviate significantly according to the employed method. This issue is raising some concerns, such as how to select the most suitable declustering algorithm, or to assess how this selection affects seismic hazard assessment. In consequence, the main goal of this paper is to quantify the sensitivity of seismic hazard assessments to different declustering techniques. Accordingly, the recently compiled Turkish earthquake catalogue was declustered by making use of three declustering algorithms. A total of six declustered catalogues, two catalogues per method, one by implementing the default input parameters, and one by altering the free input parameters of the employed methods, were produced. The clusters of selected earthquakes were studied in terms of the spatial-temporal distribution of earthquake sequences. A sensitivity analysis was conducted through the major steps of seismic hazard assessment for Istanbul metropolitan city. The seismicity of Istanbul and surroundings was modeled on the basis of four areal source zones. Comparative studies showed that, while the selected declustering algorithm did not significantly affect the completeness periods of moderate to large size earthquakes, it considerably altered those of small magnitude events (e.g. Mw 4.3-5.2) and consequently the recurrence parameters of the source zones. Depending on the declustering algorithm and input parameters, the activity rate was observed to vary up to a factor of two. The differences in the declustered catalogues obtained from different declustering approaches resulted in considerable variations in seismic hazard estimations. The hazard maps at return periods of 475 and 2475 years indicated that peak ground acceleration values may vary up to 20% at some locations. Moreover, the differences in 5% damped elastic spectral accelerations at T = 0.2 for the return periods of 475 and 2475 years are about 18 and 12%, respectively, on the southern shores of Istanbul where the highest hazard levels are observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative modelling of landslide hazard, as opposed to landslide susceptibility, as a function of the earthquake trigger is vital in understanding and assessing future potential exposure to landsliding. Logistic regression analysis is a method commonly used to assess susceptibility to landsliding; however, estimating probability of landslide hazard as a result of an earthquake trigger is rarely undertaken. This paper utilises a very detailed landslide inventory map and a comprehensive dataset on peak ground acceleration for the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake event to fit a landslide hazard logistic regression model. The model demonstrates a high success rate for estimating probability of landslides as a result of earthquake shaking. Seven earthquake magnitude scenarios were simulated using the Open Source Seismic Hazard Analysis (OpenSHA) application to simulate peak ground acceleration, a covariate of landsliding, for each event. The exposure of assets such as population, housing and roads to high levels of shaking and high probabilities of landsliding was estimated for each scenario. There has been urban development in the Northridge region since 1994, leading to an increase in prospective exposure of assets to the earthquake and landslide hazards in the event of a potential future earthquake. As the earthquake scenario magnitude increases, the impact from earthquake shaking initially increases then quickly levels out, but potential losses from landslides increase at a rapid rate. The modelling approach, as well as the specific model, developed in this paper can be used to estimate landslide probabilities as a result of an earthquake event for any scenario where the peak ground acceleration variable is available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new approach in dealing with seismic risk in the volcanic areas of Italy, by taking into account the possible occurrence of damaging pre- or syn-eruptive seismic events, is exciting the scientific interest and is actually the topic developed in several research projects funded by the European Community (e.g., UPStrat-MAFA, ) and the Civil Defense Department of Italy. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to have a detailed knowledge of the local attenuation-distance relations. In the present paper, we make a survey of the estimates of the seismic quality factor of the medium reported in literature for the Etna area. In the framework of a similar paper published for the Campi Flegrei zone in Southern Italy, we first review the results on seismic attenuation already obtained for Etna and then apply a standard technique to separately measure intrinsic and scattering attenuation coefficients from passive seismic data recorded by the Etna seismological network. Indications are then given for the correct utilization of the attenuation parameters to obtain the best candidate quality factor Q to be used in this area for seismic risk purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the application of the seismic assessment procedure developed in the PERPETUATE project on a single monument, the Neoclassical School in the Medieval City of Rhodes. The PERPETUATE methodology for the estimation of seismic risk of cultural heritage assets is based on the principles of performance-based assessment ( PBA), using nonlinear static procedures. The outcome of the PBA methodology is the maximum seismic intensity measure compatible to different performance levels. The focus of the paper is on the application of the methodology, considering the effects of both soil-foundation-structure interaction ( SFSI) and masonry foundation flexibility on the building response, before and after rehabilitation design measures. It is found that SFSI and foundation flexibility produce larger displacements and reduce the maximum ground acceleration that the building can sustain by over 50 %. However, despite the detrimental effects of SFSI on the acceleration capacity, SFSI and foundation flexibility may have a favorable effect on the structure safety, as they modify the collapse mechanism. The results of seismic analyses showed that the building, in its current state, does not sustain the demands for the Life Safety and Collapse Prevention performance levels. Stiffening the roof of the structure and providing sufficient anchorage to the structure, along with systematic grouting of the masonry walls, are the principal rehabilitation decisions considered herein. Mitigation measures were evaluated, considering SFSI and the analyses revealed the adequacy of the proposed retrofitting measure, which combines vertical (wall) and horizontal (roof) stiffening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, the codified procedures for the seismic assessment of existing structures do not consider explicitly the use of sensitivity analysis that, on the contrary, is an essential tool due to the intrinsic and epistemic uncertainties involved. In particular, results of a sensitivity analysis allow, on one hand, to optimize the plan of investigations and tests, limiting it to what is really useful, and, on the other hand, to be aware of the propagation of uncertainties in the final outcome of the assessment. The paper proposes how to implement the sensitivity analysis in a systemic way, in order to define proper confidence factors, which are used within the semi-probabilistic approach of the performance-based assessment procedure. In relation to the procedures adopted by current standards, this method is aimed to overcome the following drawbacks: (1) the a priori definition of values for the confidence factor; (2) the a priori selection of parameters to which confidence factor has to be applied; (3) the weak connection between investigation and assessment. Despite the generality of most aspects of the proposed procedure, main attention is given in the paper to its application in the case of masonry existing buildings and, in particular, of those with a significant cultural value, where the minimization of invasiveness of investigations on the construction together with that of costs plays a crucial role for the aim of conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the vulnerability assessment of the Hassan Bey's Mansion, located in the Medieval City of Rhodes in Greece. To this aim, the procedure developed in PERPETUATE project for the seismic assessment at scale of a single monument is adopted: it follows the performance-based concept making use of nonlinear static analyses. The main outcome of the assessment is presented in the paper in terms of maximum seismic intensity measure (the one selected as the most representative for the examined asset) compatible to various performance levels: it is used to address also the rehabilitation decisions. Within this context, the attention of this paper is focused on the use of sensitivity analysis for the identification of the main parameters that affect the structural response. Uncertainties considered in this application are both aleatory and epistemic. The epistemic uncertainties concern the effectiveness of the infilled openings: in fact, this feature strongly characterizes this building that has been subjected to many transformations along its life. Moreover, seven random variables have been considered to account for the aleatory uncertainties: they involve the material properties, the material constitutive law as well as floor rigidity. A total of 60 nonlinear static analyses have been performed for the sensitivity analysis, which represents a powerful tool for setting-up a possible investigation plan and addresses the final assessment. The resulting safety factor, computed in terms of return period, varies from 0.20 to 0.27, highlighting that the structure is not able to satisfy the target performance levels. Possible rehabilitation measures are proposed afterwards, in particular by quantitatively assessing the effect associated to the stiffening of diaphragms (very flexible in the original state). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seismic Performance-Based Assessment (PBA) of monumental buildings requires to consider safety and conservation objectives, including also the possible presence of artistic assets. In order to face these issues, the case study of the Great Mosque of Algiers is analysed in this paper: in fact, besides to be one of the remaining Almoradiv architecture and the oldest mosque of the city, it is also characterized by the presence of a mihrâb, a decorated arched niche that represents an interesting artistic asset to be included in the PBA. Within this context, particular attention has been paid to the choice of the most reliable modelling strategy for the application of the displacement approach in the PBA procedure, as a function of different possible seismic behaviours. In the case of Great Mosque both the current state of the building and a virtual strengthened condition are analysed. It is worth noting that, while in the current state the seismic behaviour of the asset is well described by a set of macroelements that may be analysed independently (through 2D models), in the second case the strengthening intervention leads to the adoption of a 3D global model (indeed, the roof bracing promotes a 'box-type' behaviour). In the paper, the integrate use of three different modelling strategies of different complexity is discussed: the finite element model, the equivalent frame approach and the macro-block model. The results of nonlinear analyses performed (static and kinematic) constitute the main tool to interpret the seismic response of the asset, perform the PBA and address the choice on the rehabilitation decisions. These latter in this case are mainly affected by the occurrence of too high deformations in local portions of the building, including that in which the artistic asset is located. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]