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This paper reports results of mathematical modeling applied to the stress and strain in epicentral zones before and after the large earthquakes that occurred on June 22, 2002 in the Qazvin Province, northwestern Iran (Mw = 6.4) and the Gujarat, India earthquake of January 26, 2001 (M = 6.9). The modeling relied on a method for calculating stress and strain in a blocky elastic isotropic heterogeneous medium disturbed by a set of faults that are due to an external tectonic stress field. The boundary conditions were specified based on geological and seismological data. It has been shown that the epicenters of large crustal earthquakes occur in zones of high stress concentration at the ends of tectonic faults. Rupture occurs when the relationship between acting tectonic stresses satisfies the requirement σyy/σxx >3, thus connecting zones of high stress. The evolution of the aftershock process is controlled by the stress drop caused by a new rupture, while the resulting aftershock clusters are in spatial correlation with the stress drop zone. The new rupture propagates in the direction of dominant tectonic fault orientation in the region. We show a relationship to exist between rupture length and the possible retrospectively predicted location and magnitude of the earthquake depending on the elastic energy buildup and its possible release under specified structural tectonic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A destructive earthquake, especially if it occurs in areas of high seismic risk, in the form of certain factors, has a significant impact on the environment, including biodiversity. These factors (earthquake effects) are determined by the strength of the earthquake (manifestations of intensity on the earth's surface), local conditions (geomorphological, geological structure, level of urbanization and seismic risk, etc.), disaster-zone recovery processes (fast and effective recovery, localization and prevention of secondary consequences, environmental protection, state opportunities and political decisions, etc.). It is clear that these three important basic conditions of effects are different in different seismic regions and countries, which means that the impact of an earthquake on the environment is different. To consider the features and factors of the impact of an earthquake on the environment, the 1988 Spitak earthquake—one of the most detailed and comprehensively studied earthquakes in the world—was taken as a test object. The main purpose of this article is to highlight in more detail and more fully the possible natural and human factors of the impact of a strong earthquake on the environment and predict the extent of these impacts. Thirty-six major earthquake factors affecting the environment have been identified, which are conditionally divided into three main groups according to the time of formation and genesis: (a) purely seismic, (b) secondary seismic, and (c) post seismic. The paper also attempts to assess possible changes in these factors depending on global warming and a decrease in precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the results of modeling the stress–strain state of the epicentral zone of the strong crustal Hanshin–Awaji earthquake, which occurred in the area of Kobe (Japan) on January 17, 1995, with a magnitude M of 6.9. In this work the author's method for modelling and analyzing the stress–strain state of the epicentral zones of crustal earthquakes was used. The geological, tectonic, and seismological data for the earthquake region are used as input data and boundary conditions for modeling. In this work it is shown that the main rupture arising at the origin of the earthquake is generated in a zone of high stress intensity at a certain ratio of the main tectonic stresses and propagates through areas of anomalously high stress concentration, causing maximum displacements in these zones. The results provide new insights into the focal mechanism of an earthquake, aimed at predicting the location and magnitude of strong crustal earthquakes in earthquake-prone areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—The models based on the empirical data are proposed for probabilistic forecasting the characteristics of strong ground motions (SGM) from the earthquakes, potentially dangerous for the territory of the Republic of North Ossetia–Alania. We consider the models of SGM characteristics that are most important in the engineering practice (macroseismic intensities of ground shaking, peak ground accelerations, periods, durations, spectra, and strong-motion accelerograms) in the vicinity of the sources of earthquakes of different magnitudes and at different distances from the sources in application to the seismogeological conditions of the study region. The models are developed using both the conventional statistical analysis of a large amount of data on instrumental recording and macroseismic description of the strong and perceivable earthquakes in the Caucasus and other seismically active regions of the world and a new method for reconstructing the spectra of the strong earthquakes from their macroseismic field. The cross-comparison of the estimates obtained based on the proposed models with each other and with the estimates obtained by the other authors has shown that they are fairly realistic and reliable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Site effect is usually associated with local geological conditions, which increase or decrease the level of shaking compared with standard attenuation relations. We made an attempt to see in the macroseismic data of Italy some other effects, namely, hot/cold spots in the terminology of O lsen (in Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90, 6B, 577-594, ), which are related to local fault geometry rather than to soil conditions. We give a list of towns and villages liable to amplify (+) or to reduce (-) the level of shaking in comparison with the nearby settlements. Relief and soil conditions cannot always account for the anomalous sites. Further, there are sites where both (+) and (-) effects are observed depending on the earthquake. The opposite effects can be generated by events from the same seismotectonic zone and along the same direction to the site. Anomalous sites may group themselves into clusters of different scales. All isolated anomalous patterns presented in this paper can be used in hazard analysis, in particular, for the modeling and testing of seismic effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard in terms of spectral acceleration ( SA) has been estimated for the first time in northern Algeria. For this purpose, we have used the spatially-smoothed seismicity approach. The present paper is intended to be a continuation of previous work in which we have evaluated the seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration ( PGA) using the same methodology. To perform these evaluations, four complete and Poissonian seismic models have been used. One of them considers earthquakes with magnitudes above M S 6.5 in the last 300 years, that is, the most energetic seismicity in the region. Firstly, seismic hazard maps in terms of SA, at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 sec, with 39.3% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, have been obtained. Therefore, uniform hazard spectra ( UHS) are computed and examined in detail for twelve of the most industrial and populated cities in northern Algeria. All the reported results in this study are for rock soil and 5% of damping. It is noteworthy that, in the seismic hazard maps as well as in the UHS plots, we observe maximum SA values in the central area of the Tell. The higher values are reached in the Chleff region (previously El Asnam), specifically around the location of the destructive earthquakes of September 9, 1954 ( M S 6.8), and October 10, 1980 ( M S 7.3). These maximum values, 0.4 g and 1.0 g, are associated with periods of about 0.2 and 0.3 sec for return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was performed for the Japanese islands and surrounding areas. Seismic hazard parameters characteristic of the seismic history of the regions were obtained. The probability of occurrence of a large M ≥ 7 earthquake within a 10- and 50-year period was also calculated. Regions of very high levels of hazard occur where the Pacific, Phillipine and Eurasian Plates meet. High probabilities of occurrence of a large M ≥ 7 earthquake within a 10- and 50-year period occur within the region where the Pacific Plate subducts with the Eurasian Plate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]