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This paper reports results of mathematical modeling applied to the stress and strain in epicentral zones before and after the large earthquakes that occurred on June 22, 2002 in the Qazvin Province, northwestern Iran (Mw = 6.4) and the Gujarat, India earthquake of January 26, 2001 (M = 6.9). The modeling relied on a method for calculating stress and strain in a blocky elastic isotropic heterogeneous medium disturbed by a set of faults that are due to an external tectonic stress field. The boundary conditions were specified based on geological and seismological data. It has been shown that the epicenters of large crustal earthquakes occur in zones of high stress concentration at the ends of tectonic faults. Rupture occurs when the relationship between acting tectonic stresses satisfies the requirement σyy/σxx >3, thus connecting zones of high stress. The evolution of the aftershock process is controlled by the stress drop caused by a new rupture, while the resulting aftershock clusters are in spatial correlation with the stress drop zone. The new rupture propagates in the direction of dominant tectonic fault orientation in the region. We show a relationship to exist between rupture length and the possible retrospectively predicted location and magnitude of the earthquake depending on the elastic energy buildup and its possible release under specified structural tectonic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The earthquakes have the most dominating societal and economic impact on the built environment. The earthquakes in an intraplate region are infrequent but often damaging. The uncontrolled urban growth in cities due to population explosion and migration makes it necessary to assess seismic hazards in an active region. It provides parameters for seismic safety and helps in disaster mitigation. The Kachchh Rift Basin (KRB) of western India is a seismically active intraplate region where many damaging earthquakes have occurred in the past (Mw 7.8 in 1819, Mw 7.6 in 2001). The KRB hosts many economic corridors and ports. Though the region has been put in a category with highest seismic hazard, the entire region is not prone to high hazards. The primary objective of the study is to integrate major attributes that influence seismic hazard on a GIS platform and prepare a multi-criteria-based hazard map by multi-criteria decision process named as analytical hierarchy process (AHP) developed by Saaty. In this study, the information about some of the attributes like peak ground acceleration (PGA), geology and geomorphology, and tsunami hazard is taken from published literature, whereas shear wave velocity to 30 m depth (Vs)30 and amplification factor were obtained through empirical relationships. The integration of these different attributes was performed, and weights were assigned depending on their contribution to the seismic hazard. The multi-criteria approach reveals that the southwestern part comprising of Kachchh mainland has a low hazard as compared to central and northern parts and almost 1 million people and around 0.18 million houses are exposed to moderate to high hazard. Large swaths of land are prone to liquefaction hazard. The corridor comprising of Bhuj, Bhachau and Rapar needs seismic microzonation. This macro level hazard map will be beneficial for the urban planners and government authorities to decide the areas, where seismic microzonation or site-specific studies are required that would help in mitigating earthquake disasters in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]