1. Retrospective Prediction of Location and Intensity for Two Large Crustal Earthquakes in Iran and India.
- Author
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Morozov, V. N., Manevich, A. I., and Tatarinov, V. N.
- Subjects
EARTHQUAKE magnitude ,EARTHQUAKE zones ,EARTHQUAKES ,SEISMIC event location ,STRESS concentration ,EARTHQUAKE aftershocks ,PALEOSEISMOLOGY ,EARTHQUAKE intensity - Abstract
This paper reports results of mathematical modeling applied to the stress and strain in epicentral zones before and after the large earthquakes that occurred on June 22, 2002 in the Qazvin Province, northwestern Iran (M
w = 6.4) and the Gujarat, India earthquake of January 26, 2001 (M = 6.9). The modeling relied on a method for calculating stress and strain in a blocky elastic isotropic heterogeneous medium disturbed by a set of faults that are due to an external tectonic stress field. The boundary conditions were specified based on geological and seismological data. It has been shown that the epicenters of large crustal earthquakes occur in zones of high stress concentration at the ends of tectonic faults. Rupture occurs when the relationship between acting tectonic stresses satisfies the requirement σyy /σxx >3, thus connecting zones of high stress. The evolution of the aftershock process is controlled by the stress drop caused by a new rupture, while the resulting aftershock clusters are in spatial correlation with the stress drop zone. The new rupture propagates in the direction of dominant tectonic fault orientation in the region. We show a relationship to exist between rupture length and the possible retrospectively predicted location and magnitude of the earthquake depending on the elastic energy buildup and its possible release under specified structural tectonic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2023
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