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Climate warming and a shift in the timing of phenological phases, which lead to changes in the duration of the vegetation period may have an essential impact on the productivity of winter crops. The main purpose of this study is to examine climate change-related long-term (1961-2015) changes in the duration of both initial (pre-winter) and main (post-winter) winter wheat vegetation seasons and to present the projection of future phenological changes until the end of this century. Delay and shortening of pre-winter vegetation period, as well as the advancement and slight extension of the post-winter vegetation period, resulted in the reduction of whole winter wheat vegetation period by more than 1 week over the investigated 55 years. Projected changes in the timing of phenological phases which define limits of a main vegetation period differ essentially from the observed period. According to pessimistic (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) scenario, the advancement of winter wheat maturity phase by almost 30 days and the shortening of post-winter vegetation season by 15 days are foreseen for a far (2071-2100) projection. An increase in the available chilling amount is specific not only to the investigated historical period (1960-2015) but also to the projected period according to the climate change scenarios of climate warming for all three projection periods. Consequently, the projected climate warming does not pose a threat of plant vernalization shortage in the investigated geographical latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of long-term time series of spring phenology for different deciduous trees species has shown that leaf unfolding for all the investigated species is the most sensitive to temperatures in March and April and illustrates that forcing temperature is the main driver of the advancement of leaf unfolding. Available chilling amount has increased by 22.5 % over the last 90 years, indicating that in the investigated geographical region there is no threat of chilling shortage. The projection of climatic parameters for Central Lithuania on the basis of three global circulation models has shown that under the optimistic climate change scenario (RCP 2.6) the mean temperature tends to increase by 1.28 °C and under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) by 5.03 °C until the end of the current century. Recently, different statistical models are used not only to analyze but also to project the changes in spring phenology. Our study has shown that when the data of long-term phenological observations are available, multiple regression models are suitable for the projection of the advancement of leaf unfolding under the changing climate. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projected advancement in leaf unfolding for early-season species birch consists of almost 15 days as an average of all three used GSMs. Markedly less response to the projected far future (2071-2100), climate change is foreseen for other investigated climax species: −9 days for lime, 10 days for oak, and 11 days for maple. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term investigations of Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) growth were carried out in the vicinity of one of the biggest air pollution sources in Lithuania-mineral fertilizers plant 'Achema.' It is detected that initial stages of the dynamic tree response to the external stress factors in the polluted environment with an increased quantity of nitrogen compounds have started with a stimulation stage, followed by a gradual transition to a depression of growth. The recovery of the damaged stands took place along with the reduced environmental pollution, and the overdraft of the 'normal' annual increment was a characteristic feature of all the investigated stands. This phase is still continuing for the most damaged stands. A very high individual variability of the tree growth response to the environmental impact is a characteristic feature of the damaged Scots pine stands. The homeostatic mechanisms of the survived trees stipulated reaching approximately the same or even higher growth rate as prior to the depression period, and the tree growth rate before the depression period can serve as the most powerful predictor of tree growth recovery capacity under the reduced environmental pollution. Crown defoliation is the next most important predictor of individual tree recovery capacity. Lower stand density and lower competition cause higher recovery capacity of damaged trees. The conclusion is made that a reduction in the environmental pollution on the local and regional scale and especially a decrease in emissions and deposition of sulfur and nitrogen compounds caused the recovery of damaged forests. These trends should be taken into account while analyzing and modeling forest dynamics. Interaction of environmental pollution and climatic factors is very important for the response of tree growth to the environmental stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]