Search

The research calculated the waste paper recovery rate, and analyzed the main factors influencing waste paper recovery rate in China with time series data from 1970 to 2012. The consequent recovery rate and utilization rate of waste paper show that the recovery of paper products has been experiencing a rapid growth in China, but it cannot meet the domestic need. The empirical analysis proves that demand is the main driver to stimulate the increase of waste paper recovery rate in China; the increased average GDP per capita and proportion of waste paper pulp are two other important factors; the increased urbanization rate does not exert significant influence. In the circumstance of insufficient timber supply, the policy of eliminating straw pulp capacities for paper-making indusrty improves the recovery rate of waste paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greece has over the years allocated substantial human and material resources to defence. Its defence burden (i.e. military expenditure as a share of GDP) has invariably been substantially higher than the EU and NATO averages. Furthermore, during the post-bipolar period, when the defence budgets of most countries shrunk, Greek defence spending grew in real terms. This paper contributes to the existing literature on Greek defence spending and its effects by empirically estimating the impact of such expenditures on the country's fiscal situation during the period 1960-2001 something that has largely been ignored in the relevant literature. In particular, it focuses on the effects of military spending on government debt and its two components: internal and external debt. The empirical findings reported here suggest that central government debt and, in particular, external debt has been adversely influenced by military expenditure but also by the domestic political cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The defense-growth nexus is investigated empirically using time series data for the US and allowing the effect of defense spending on growth to be non-linear. Using recently developed econometric methods involving threshold regressions, evidence of a level-dependent effect of military expenditure on GDP growth is found: the positive externality effect of defense spending prevails for relatively lower levels of defense spending (with respect to the history of defense spending in the US) and reverts its influence for higher levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several research efforts were dedicated to analysing the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment in the host economies. The variations in the conclusions signal that other variables influence and moderate the effects of FDI on GDP and employment. Institutional elements receive limited research attention, despite their influence on the host economies. This paper investigates the moderating role of institutional elements in the FDI-host economies on FDI’s effects on GDP and employment with China and India as case studies. The approach utilises three principal methodologies. The first methodology presents an in-depth analysis of China and India, highlighting selected institutional elements with the potential to influence FDI’s effects. The second methodology confirms the presence of a positive correlation between FDI and GDP and a negative correlation between FDI and employment-to-population ratio (EPR) in both China and India. The FDI, GDP purchasing power parity per capita, and EPR datasets are extracted from the World Bank – DataBank World Development Indicators to ensure the consistency of the data. The results of the quantitative analysis validate the qualitative analysis. The qualitative analysis confirms the moderating role of the selected institutional elements with variations in direction and strength. Significant variations in FDI’s effects on GDP and employment are strongly related to variations in the institutions of governance. The institutions of governance include the functionality of the state organs, the efficiency of the legal system and enforcement of the rule of law, and the quality of implementation of FDI-supportive policies. The findings aim to increase the absorption of the positive effects of FDI on GDP and employment in the respective countries. The research is a cornerstone of in-depth future research into the following areas: the role of selective FDI and constructive conditional FDI policies, the functionality of judicial authority controls, and FDI favourable exchange rates and interest rates policies. The novelty and contribution of the paper lie in its comprehensive exploration of the moderating role of institutional elements on the effects of FDI on GDP and employment in host economies, with a specific focus on China and India. The paper contributes significantly to the academic literature on FDI and economic development by emphasising the importance of institutional factors and providing actionable insights for policymakers and researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the threshold impact of government debt on economic growth in the presence of fiscal consolidation in South Africa from 1979 to 2022. The autoregressive threshold regime (TAR) model and two-stage least squares (2SLS) are used. The contribution of the paper is on the estimation of the threshold of government debt using the first difference, dummy variables, and the TAR in the presence of fiscal consolidation in South Africa. The TAR provides evidence with the consideration of fiscal consolidation, there is evidence of the U-shape impact of domestic government debt on gross domestic product per person. At a high threshold, there is evidence of an S-shape impact on gross domestic product per person when there is a range threshold. Overall high domestic government debt harms gross product per person and results in fiscal consolidation not being able to stimulate gross domestic product per person. It is recommended for fiscal authorities to not use fiscal consolidation when the domestic government debt is above 60% in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper for the first time calculates the historical regional GDP (rGDP) for an Eastern European country by using the methodology of Frank Geary and Tom Stark [2002. Examining Ireland's post-famine economic growth performance. The Economic Journal, 112(482):919–935]. The estimates cover the period 1925–1935 and are made for the historical Latvian regions Kurzeme, Vidzeme, Zemgale, Latgale, and Riga as well as within the contemporary NUTS3 units. The results are compared with the GDP disparity of the NUTS3 regions of the restored independent Latvia (2001–2016). The main findings are that the sigma divergence remained stable. Direct comparisons of regional growth rates indicate that economically more advanced regions were more sensitive to business cycles than less advanced regions. Hence, sigma divergence seems to prevail in times of high growth and convergence in times of low growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper argues that the UK's endemic regional–national productivity problems cannot be addressed by the UK's current institutional and governance set-up. This paper argues that the establishment of an appropriate institution, body or forum is essential in order to fill the current governance vacuum. The appropriate nature, form and logic of such a body can be gleaned by observing various international comparator bodies which undertake different aspects of the types of roles and tasks that a UK body must necessarily undertake. The options for a UK body comprising elements of these comparator institutions are discussed in detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the significance of GDP per capita to a society? What does it represent conceptually? These questions have been addressed in past decades, engendering extensive explorations of the limitations of the indicator, yet answers have proved problematic or partial. The paper presents the main conclusions so far drawn and builds upon them to present a new reading of the significance of GDP per capita. At the heart of this reading is the view that, while GDP per capita is not indicative of the welfare of individuals, it is indicative of an irreducible 'group well-being.' This view, however, requires one to relinquish the belief that only individuals can be 'well.' It turns out that the allegedly orthodox view, which sees GDP as a human-centered indicator, requires an unorthodox philosophical standpoint, one that accepts an irreducible group well-being. The paper presents this alternative interpretation and addresses its upsides and limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a panel of European countries, we analyse paper products, sawnwood and wood panels consumption data. With this object, we use a classical demand model where national consumption depends on real GDP and real prices. In contrast to previous panel estimations in the literature, we highlight non-stationarity time series which can lead to spurious regressions. We explicitly take into account the issue by using recent panel cointegration techniques. Cointegration is present for printing paper and fibreboard, though less clear cut for other products. Then we estimate demand elasticities and find that GDP elasticities are significantly lower than estimates from the literature. Finally, we simulate the implications of modified demand elasticities by using a partial equilibrium model of the forest sector. For most products, changes in elasticities would lead to lower projected demand and lower prices over a 20-year time horizon. Lower demand for solid wood and wood fibre would lead to less tensions with fuel wood- and wood-based chemical markets. In a context of rising interest for renewable bio-based products, updated long-term demand models contribute to the analysis of the forest sector’s sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies the extent of the brain drain problem in Mississippi and quantifies its economic impacts on the state. The study begins by defining brain drain and comparing brain drain in Mississippi to other states in the region using two definitions of the term. We find that all states in the study experience gross brain drain, but not all states experience net brain drain. Returning the focus to Mississippi, the study includes an experimental analysis of the potential effects to the Mississippi economy if the state's migration patterns of college-educated individuals were similar to those of other states in the region. This experiment allows us to determine the impact of brain drain on Mississippi's economy in terms of real gross domestic product (GDP), personal income, employment, and population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Participation in the European Economic Area (EEA) and the intention to join the monetary union increased the motivation of the new Member States to achieve a high level synchronisation of economic activity with the euro area. This paper aims to characterise fluctuations of economic activity that are common for the Baltic States, Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, euro area countries, and Russia. For analysis of real standardised GDP growth, the dynamic factor model is employed. The results of the study show that the Baltic economies are similar in economic development and share a common factor. After 2000, GDP growth between the Baltic States and the main euro area countries indicates growing synchronisation of economic development between these country groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The so-called 'Oxford Study' by Flyvbjerg et al shows Olympic cost overrun of 170-750% with a substantial risk of a further cost overrun above this range in the future. The aim of this paper is to re-analyse the results by using a method in accordance with the international convention of comparing across time and geographies. The dataset used has abundantly more governmental data than in the Oxford Study. The results of the Oxford Study for the period of 2000–2016 could not be replicated. It is argued why the statistical analysis and their data reliability are misleading, thus leading to a discovery of six typical misperceptions. In contrast to those authors, this paper shows cost overruns (Olympics 2000–2014) for direct non-OCOG investments in the range of 13–178%. Further, it shows that the costs of the Olympic Games represent less than 0.28% of the GDP; hence, it is clear that the Games cannot cause a severe national economic crisis. This paper provides a discussion on the underlying assumptions of the Oxford study, thus providing valuable insights for politicians who intend to submit an Olympic bid, and contextualises cost overruns caused by fixed deadlines and long planning horizons. I disagree with the claim by Flyvbjerg et al. that hosts give a blank cheque to the IOC and I contend that demands and a tight coupling are fixed in the Host City Contract, thus negating the blank cheque assertion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between solar energy production and economic growth for top 10 countries with the highest installed solar energy production capacity as of 2017 (China, the USA, Japan, Germany, Italy, India, the UK, France, Australia, and Spain, respectively) using data over the period 1999–2015. For this purpose, the paper employs panel cointegration and causality methods that are robust to cross-sectional dependence. The findings imply that the coefficient of solar energy is insignificant in the empirical model and that there is no causality between solar energy and GDP, indicating the neutrality hypothesis prevails for solar energy. Theoretical and practical implications are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the Granger-causal relationship between government spending (G) and income (Y) for Saudi Arabia for which G is the main driver of economic growth. Previous studies investigated two-way causality, from G to Y (Keynesian) and from Y to G (Wagnerian). This paper investigates a new explanation (post-Keynesian) that links Y to G through banks' loan-making and deposit-creation. The latter is accompanied by an increase in statutory reserves (R). The findings are consistent with the post-Keynesian theory (from Y to R, and to G). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a country's innovative capacity increases when the business sector invests more in research and development. The empirical investigation covers Serbia and its three neighboring countries in the European Union - Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria - for the period from 2011 to 2021. The results indicate that an increase in investment by the business sector at the current level of GDP influences the increase in innovation in the case of Serbia, Hungary, and Bulgaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many developed countries around the world, the connection between immigration and crime has been a subject of discussion. The indigenous populations of the most advanced nations usually held the opinion that immigration fuels delinquency. Therefore, this paper provides an empirical connection between immigration and crime in the period 1988-2018 across 30 OECD countries. For empirical analysis, advanced panel econometric approaches are used which can address both heterogonous coefficients and cross-section dependency. The findings show that no statistical evidence exists to relate an increase in the number of immigrants to the rise of any kind of crime. If there is we found a significant negative association between immigrants and only one of the six kinds of crime studied. Moreover, an increase in foreign prisoners (FP) reduces all kinds of crimes. While an increase in the real gross domestic product (RGDP) only increases property crimes. The increase in M25–29 only increases serious assault (SA) out of six crime types analysed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the Maastricht Treaty, increasingly complex fiscal rules have been progressively introduced aimed at closely regulating and deeply affecting the budgetary policies of all signatory countries. One of the main reforms, enacted since 2005, has been to interpret national budget balances in structural terms, forcing each member state to comply with a Medium-Term Objective (MTO) based on the general principle of a zero-structural budget balance. Starting from the standard European Commission methodology for calculating the structural budget, our paper shows that, by replacing the estimate of the potential output based on the NAWRU with a different notion and measure of potential output, the results in terms of fiscal policy space are significantly different. This outcome points out the distinct possibility that the actual fiscal policies of the member states of the EU may be driven and constrained by a measure that seriously limits their flexibility by several percentage points. While our empirical calculations refer to Italy, the point we address is general and relates to all member states, particularly those that in the past have been forced to restrictive policies while in recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the effect of oil price uncertainty shock on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 33 developed and emerging economies using the Global Vector Autoregressive (VAR) framework that allows us to capture the transmission of global shocks while simultaneously accounting for distinct characteristics of individual countries. Utilizing quarterly data over the period of 1980Q1 to 2019Q2, we show that, in general, oil price uncertainty shock has a statistically significant negative impact on GDP for 28 out of the 33 countries, but with varying magnitude and persistence. Overall though, we find the adverse effect on real GDP to be relatively stronger for the developed group of countries than the emerging ones. Hence, our results suggest that policymakers must be ready to undertake expansionary policies (of varying order) in the wake of an oil price uncertainty shock to prevent deep recessions, except in the cases of Norway, Philippines and Saudi Arabia, for which output tends to increase in a statistically significant manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper studies the relationship between external debt and economic growth in a panel of emerging countries. A number of economists have proposed different methods of analysing the nexus between economic growth and public debt. The paper investigates the debt-growth nexus using a linear and non-linear specification, employing a panel ARDL model on 13 emerging countries during the period 1990–2016. The results show that there is no robust effect of debt on economic growth in the long run; however in the short run, external debt is negatively and significantly correlated to economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the historical antecedents of the terminologies ascribed to the Chinese in the Philippines, focusing on the late Spanish to the early American colonial periods. Many government records, newspapers, or books categorized the "Chinese" as either sangley, intsik, Chinese mestizo, or "Chinese/Chino," in contradistinction to Christianized natives who were labeled as "Indios" and later "Filipinos." Following dominant and nationalized classifications of race, past scholarship on the Chinese in the Philippines also tended to paint the "Chinese" in the Philippines in a binarist opposition against "Filipinos." The essentialization of ethnicities has resulted in the perpetuation of a homogenized and monolithic "Chinese" identity that we see in the country today. Using government and non-government publications from the period under study, this paper seeks to demonstrate the power dynamic at particular moments in Philippine society that has led to the reification, reinvention, and reconfiguration of what it means to be "Chinese." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Beyond GDP approach to development is gaining widespread support from policy makers and researchers worldwide. While not formulated specifically for tourism activity, the approach serves as a guide to measuring the current and future well-being of destination residents associated with tourism development. Inspired by the Beyond GDP approach, a framework comprising the main dimensions of well-being is argued to provide valuable input into an action agenda to achieve sustainable tourism development. The paper discusses some key responsibilities of tourism industry stakeholders structured according to several different senses of 'beyond' that characterise the Beyond GDP research agenda. The paper concludes that research on destination tourism development can learn much from the Beyond GDP approach in respect of conceptual advance, industry practice and policy implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates the economic effects of nuclear weapons development efforts in Pakistan using synthetic control group methods. Pakistan started its nuclear weapons program in 1972 and conducted its first test in 1998. This paper focuses on the growth impacts during the 1973 to 1997 period, before Pakistan established itself as a nuclear power. I create a synthetic control group for Pakistan using Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the 1950 to 1972. The impact of the nuclear weapons development program is measured as a treatment dummy for the years 1973–1997 in a Difference-in-Difference model. I find that Pakistan's per capita GDP would have been an average of about $718 per year higher had the country not undertaken the effort to produce a nuclear weapon. This equates to per capita GDP being 27.8% lower on average over the 25-year weapons-development period. Results are robust to several alternative specifications, including country exclusion, sparse synthetic controls, non-outcome characteristics as predictors of GDP, and in-space placebo experiments of differing specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although entry to the Euro area (EA) is based only on fulfilment of the Maastricht criteria, implementation of optimum currency criteria and real economic convergence determines the benefits and costs of monetary integration. This paper focuses on the synchronization of business cycles among Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) and the EA. Business cycles are extracted from GDP data series using a double Hodrick-Prescott filter method. The degree of co-movement of cycles is evaluated on the basis of various methods of rolling correlation. Results show that there is no common CEE business cycle, although a synchronization trend is evident. Similarly, there is a strong trend of convergence of CEEC national business cycles toward that of the EA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in average wage are usually attributed to technological change in the past industrial revolutions. With the emergence and gradual explosion of artificial intelligence (AI) in the 4th industrial revolution, this paper applies panel vector autoregressive technique, with annual data from the World Bank and global economy from 2004 to 2017, to examine the effect of artificial intelligence on average wages in Southern Africa. Findings from the study show that artificial intelligence has a significant negative relationship with average wages but is positively associated with gross domestic product per capita (GDPC), unemployment and inflation. The study also finds inflation and GDPC to be positively associated with average wage. Based on the finding, policy direction focusing on wage stabilisation, redistribution of income, advance learning and skill development training that promote competitiveness to computerisation is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the outcomes of the 2014 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit held in Wales was the recommendation that allies should strive towards spending at least 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on military expenditure by 2024. This has in recent years put the debate on burden sharing within the Alliance in the limelight. Within the Alliance, the interpretation of the guidelines is different. This is partly because the U.S.A, especially under President Trump, has consistently viewed the 2-% guideline as a binding agreement. Some allies have, however, indicated that their military expenditure will not increase to the recommended threshold by the set deadline. Critics of the guideline have also identified several shortfalls associated with it and consequently dismissed it. Those who support it emphasize for instance that it contributes to addressing grievances about free riding within the Alliance. This paper contributes to this discussion and literature on demand for military expenditure by assessing how NATO's two percent guideline can be viewed from a demand for military expenditure perspective. It also proposes and estimates a dynamic panel model for this purpose. Empirical evidence presented suggests that fiscal conditions require attention in the debate on the two percent guideline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinant of economic growth in the region of East African countries from 2002 to 2018. In order to investigate empirically the key determinants of economic growth in East African countries, this study used a dynamic panel model. To improve efficiency, Generalized Moments Method (GMM) estimators are used. Based on panel data from the East African countries during the 2002–2018 period, this study, therefore, estimated the determinants of economic growth in the region. The result suggests that government expense, government revenue, volume of imports and exports of goods and services significantly contribute to the economic growth of the countries. However, the consumer price index, current account balance, gross government debt, and foreign direct investment lead to negative economic growth. The paper has three policy implications; first, promoting open trade and ensuring peace and stability in the region is a paramount policy to enhance the economic growth of the region. East African Countries should move forward in creating stability regionally and internally within the countries. Second, countries in East Africa are recommended to strengthen and sustain their policies on government expenses, government revenue and revise their policies on government debt, inflation and current account balance. Major reforms are required in foreign direct investment and general government debt within the region. Third, to address obstacles in trade, climate change and the tax collection system, political and economic integration is fundamental to the region and to making the region competitive in the international trade arena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of public debt on fiscal balance. This study uses the standard debt equation in a fiscal reaction and impulse response functions framework to assess the trajectory of public debt and its sustainability within the Sub-Sahara region from 1980–2017. From the estimations of the fiscal reaction function, the lagged primary balance significantly affects the fiscal deficits of Sub-Saharan African countries. Also, public debts to the gross domestic product beyond a threshold of fifty percent are positive and significantly associated with the primary balance. Fiscal deficits contribute to increases in the debt stock of about 120% over the ten-year for the Sub-Sahara region. The results imply that fiscal governance is required to constrict fiscal deficits whenever debt stock levels approach a certain threshold and growth. Therefore, stakeholders should implement enhanced fiscal policy rules on fiscal balance, public debts, and economic growth to improve debt sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the systemic relationship between triple helix innovation systems and the gross domestic product per capita growth (GDPPC) in terms of sustainable competitiveness in Africa. To do this, the Generalized Moment Method on the panel vector autoregressive model is used to estimate helix models' (triple helix, quadruple helix, quintuple helix, as well as the open quintuple helix, relative to external contributions) effects on GDPPC between 2007 and 2019 in 27 African countries, and causality tests completion as well. The results show 3 coevolution relationships resulting from the narrow innovation system, which is made up of the burden of government regulations, companies' expenditures on research and development (R&D) as well as the quality of scientific research institutions. The system expansion (the broad innovation system) with the degree of consumer orientation and natural resource rents generate both 7 (respectively 3 and 4) coevolution relationships. Finally, the opening of the innovation system by considering the business impact of rules on foreign direct investment (BIFDI) alone, generates 5 coevolution relationships. So, in terms of overall sustainable competitiveness strategies in Africa, countries must focus on innovation system opening and natural resources exploitation to increase their GDPPC. Thus, this study fills the gap of a deficit in technological policy orientation on the relationships between innovation systems and sustainable competitiveness through economic growth in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reliability of China's GDP data has been questioned for a long time. Prior studies have discussed the causes of GDP distortion in China, but the evidence on the economic consequences is scant. This paper examines the economic consequences of regional GDP distortion from the perspective of analyst forecasts. We find that regional GDP distortion leads to lower analyst forecast accuracy, and this result is robust to potential endogeneity. Further investigations show that analysts with information advantages have the ability to resist the distorted GDP data and issue accurate forecasts. Political pressure is another factor leading to inaccurate analyst forecasts. Our paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the importance of the reliability of GDP figures as a determinant of analyst forecast accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of studies have dealt with the effects of economic integration on foreign direct investment, yet without a comprehensive and simultaneous analysis of the overall positioning of the countries involved along the investment development path (IDP). In the current paper, a comparative analysis of IDPs of five Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, both members and nonmembers of the European Union (EU), is conducted. The purpose of the paper is to determine the effect of economic integration on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and on the movement of these CEE economies through their IDP stages. An attempt is made to identify the positioning of the sample countries on the IDP, using trend estimation depicting the relationship between net outward investment (NOI) per capita and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, as well as detailed descriptive data on inward and outward FDI stocks and flows, subsequently complemented with econometric analysis. While the findings point to a generally positive effect of EU membership on FDI growth and IDP trajectories, integration tends to exert a stronger effect on inward FDI than on outward FDI of the investigated member countries. At the same time, the study's findings reveal the need to add new theoretical considerations to the interface between EU integration and the IDP model, as well as formulate certain policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examined the impact of fiscal policy on non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, over the annual period 1989–2018. We employed various cointegration methods within the framework of the augmented production function and estimated that government current and capital expenditure, in addition to non-oil labour and capital, have statistically significant positive effects on non-oil GDP. We tested whether the recent oil price decline and the implemented economic reforms caused a break in the relationship that non-oil GDP establishes with the mentioned variables and found that there was no break in either the long-run or the short-run relationship. The study concluded with some policy insights that could be useful for fiscal authorities to promote non-oil economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The short-term GDP growth-based economic success of the BRICS has spawned a trend of grouping large emerging market economies under shared monikers. The proliferation of a wide array of labels – from MINTs to VISTAs – within political and financial circles has been accompanied by a growing scholarly interest in the study of these 'emerging markets' and future 'rising powers'. This paper discusses the literature on Turkey's 'rising power' status to problematise the conceptual and analytical parameters that shape these wider debates. Accordingly, I argue that the established parameters are wholly based in, and in turn reproduce, a neoliberal conception of development which prioritises a narrowly construed metric of economic progress based on GDP growth, while simultaneously ignoring the associated socio-economic and environmental costs. The paper interrogates the ways in which select macroeconomic indicators have been deployed to legitimise neoliberal reform in Turkey and utilises this case study to mount a methodological challenge to the relevant IR/IPE literatures that conceptualise 'emerging markets' and 'rising powers' from growth-oriented perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The informal economy plays an integral role in addressing the socio-economic issues facing many nations around the world. Informal sector entrepreneurship activities contribute 10–20% of the GDP in developed economies and up to 60% in developing economies. In South Africa, the informal sector accounts for 15–17% of total employment and about 5.2% of the country's GDP. Yet, very little attention is given to how informal sector entrepreneurship shapes individual entrepreneurial orientation and the emergence of entrepreneurial leadership, and vice versa. The lack of attention to the notions of individual entrepreneurial orientation and the emergence of entrepreneurial leadership from the informal sector is worrisome given that a significant number of now successful entrepreneurs in African contexts began their business operations within the informal sector. This article presents a multilevel analysis of the emergence of entrepreneurial leadership in the informal sector of South Africa. We draw from "rags to riches" inspirational accounts and social identity theory to develop an integrative framework on the emergence of entrepreneurial leadership in the informal sector. Short case studies of successful entrepreneurial leaders who emerged from the informal sector are presented for illustrative purposes. This paper aims to provide valuable insights into one of the understudied but rapidly growing entrepreneurial contexts, informal sector entrepreneurship, and how this context shapes individual entrepreneurial orientation and the emergence of entrepreneurial leadership. This exposes a previously hidden territory for new insights and further studies on how to advance entrepreneurship development research and praxis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses European Commission's fiscal forecasts for a sample of 10 Central and Eastern European countries between 2005 and 2015. The analysis focus on forecasts of the budget balance, revenues, expenditures and debt and pays special attention to dynamics around business cycle turning points. Results suggest that the distribution of projection errors appears to be biased towards optimism of fiscal aggregates and accuracy increases as the forecast horizon shortens. We also find evidence of "forecast smoothing". In addition, we find that, on average, the extent of optimism seems to increase during recessions (and to a lesser extent during recoveries). Moreover, errors in forecasting fiscal variables can be explained by forecasts errors of real GDP growth and inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the beginning of the twenty-first century, governments have tried to attract companies by offering different tax incentives or even changing their entire tax regime. Among the countries that have attracted foreign investments we have countries in Eastern Europe which enjoyed the benefits of the Single European Market and the stability that an EU membership brings. Given the importance of foreign capital we focus our paper on the factors the impact FDI and GDP. The main objective of the paper was to assess the impact of taxation on the GDP and FDI but our analysis has allowed to also view the impact of other factors such as infrastructure, unemployment, cost of doing business and labour force. We have selected 11 countries of the 13 New Member States that have joined the EU after 2004 and looked at data for the years 2005–2015. To see which factors influence the GDP and FDI, we have used the method of panel least squares. The results of our analysis show that taxation does play a role in the increase of the GDP and the attraction of FDI. Nevertheless, it is not the main factor and countries should not only rely on reduction of fiscal pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have discussed the influence of the global financial cycle on capital flows to emerging and developing countries. This paper evaluates the relationship between the greater degree of financial integration, and macroeconomic performance over the last two decades in Brazil. The literature has highlighted the Brazilian experience as being paradigmatic among emerging countries regarding the relationship between financial integration and regulation of capital flows to deal with boom and bust cycles. Methodologically, we employ a vector autoregressive model with error correction that allows us to evaluate the cointegration between the variables. Our main hypothesis is that a greater degree of financial integration is associated with negative developments in variables such as gross domestic product, country risk, interest rates, and exchange rate volatility. In addition, this study presents a further contribution by observing the existence of the interaction between the consequences of financial integration and the global financial cycle. More specifically, we found that: (i) an increase in the degree of financial integration generates deeper effects in downward periods of the global financial cycle; and (ii) a decline in that cycle generates greater impacts when a higher degree of financial integration is present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the economic ramifications of the recent political reconfigurations that the MENA region witnessed, commonly known as the Arab Spring, utilizing MENA countries' data for the period 2005–2016. Using the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel estimation, the paper estimates a growth model using the difference in the log of GDPC between periods t and t + 1. Buttressed by sufficient empirical evidence, the paper's findings corroborate that the Arab Spring had been negatively associated with growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the key characteristics of the world economy in the last few decades has been the rise of foreign direct investments (FDI), which represent the major and most desirable form of capital flows from developed to developing and transition countries. The aim of this paper is to investigate specificities of FDI inflow to six small open transition economies of the western Balkans over the 2004–2014 period. Formal econometric tests carried out in the paper imply that—contrary to widespread ideology—FDI inflows exhibit at best no impact whatsoever or indeed a statistically significant negative impact on both GDP and GNP (cumulative) growth rates in the western Balkans. After exploring stylized facts and contrasting them with theoretical predictions, the article goes on to debunk several misconceptions in regard to motives, modes of operation and economic effects of FDI confronted with inconsistent, partial or outright detrimental government policies. The authors therefore call for a considerably different attitude towards FDI and the growth-generating concept in the Balkans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a synthesis of diverse and disparate evidence in the research literature that provide insights into the impacts of aspects of the built environment on the wellbeing of those living with dementia. The individually focused findings are structured into a set of practical design parameters driven by three overarching needs-driven design principles: manageable cognitive load, clear sequencing and appropriate level of stimulation. These needs are contextualized within a general model that suggests that action in any one area (such as the built environment) also has to take into account other key dimensions, namely any support from the caring/social environment and any pharmacological treatment. Addressing these elements holistically should maximize the opportunity to improve the quality of life of the individual. This paper, however, explicitly focuses on the built environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sar-Cov-2 pandemic that began in 2019 has significantly affected the global economy and, in particular, those of African countries. This paper analyzes possible intervention channels by African states to put their economies back on a sustainable growth path once the health crisis is under control. The paper proposes workable macroeconomic channels for these countries' recovery from post-pandemic periods by using historical data to conduct empirical analyses. The paper employs World Bank data and ILOSTAT for 54 African countries within the period 1990–2018. We use a post-Keynesian framework and the difference and system generalized method-of-moments to show that wages drive African economic dynamics in the short run. This is particularly true for Sub-Saharan African countries. In addition, foreign output, proxied by European Union output, has a positive and significant impact on Sub-Saharan African economies in the short and long run. The results highlight strategic policy measures for recovering African economies, including improving wages and deepening international economic relations, particularly with the Eurozone countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past two decades, two global events highlighted the importance of household savings to economies and individuals, and their relation to economic activity and growth. First, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 reminded the world that household savings are essential for economic recovery and sustainable economic development. Second, the recent COVID-19 pandemic showed how vulnerable household savings are to various external shocks. This paper investigates the relationship between household savings rates and real GDP in the four countries of the Visegrád Group, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, for the period 1996–2021. Our empirical analyses indicate short-run Granger causality from real GDP to household savings rates, and from household savings rates to real GDP, in both the Czech Republic and Hungary. Additionally, we also report significant long-run relationships between household savings rates and real GDP, particularly in Hungary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on multivariate, spatial agglomeration, cluster analysis, and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, this paper aims to reveal the spatial inequalities in the digital development of households and individuals at 460 districts/cities in Indonesia and its association with socioeconomic characteristics. The results show a significant district digital divide characterized by a decline of regional digital development index (RDDI) values from the west to the east and from core cities to more peripheral ones. Cities with high RDDI values are mainly concentrated in large metropolitan areas in western Indonesia, whereas districts with low values tend to concentrate in rural-mountainous regions, remote areas, and archipelagos in eastern Indonesia. However, the digital divide declined from 2015 to 2019, indicating that Indonesian regions are becoming more digitally convergent. Education, gross regional domestic product (GRDP) per capita, population, and the number of formal workers have a positive and significant impact on RDDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the United States, income and expenditure-side estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) (GDP I and GDP E ) measure "true" GDP with error and are available at a quarterly frequency. Methods exist for using these proxies to produce reconciled quarterly estimates of true GDP. In this paper, we extend these methods to provide reconciled historical true GDP estimates at a monthly frequency. We do this using a Bayesian mixed frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) involving GDP E , GDP I , unobserved true GDP, and monthly indicators of short-term economic activity. Our MF-VAR imposes restrictions that reflect a measurement-error perspective (i.e., the two GDP proxies are assumed to equal true GDP plus measurement error). Without further restrictions, our model is unidentified. We consider a range of restrictions that allow for point and set identification of true GDP and show that they lead to informative monthly GDP estimates. We illustrate how these new monthly data contribute to our historical understanding of business cycles and we provide a real-time application nowcasting monthly GDP over the pandemic recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies a structural decomposition of the input-output tables to investigate the sources of changes in the GDP of China, paying special attention to the import substitution of intermediate inputs. It is argued that the specific way GDP is decomposed in this paper sheds more light on the origin of growth than does the conventional decomposition of GDP by its final demand components. The results of the decomposition show that import substitution of intermediate products, which is an act of de-globalization of trade and a model of industrialization some Asian newly industrializing economies followed decades earlier, also became important in China, but only belatedly: in 2011–2012 and 2013–2014. The phenomenon is found to be significant in the manufacture of (i) computer, electronic and optical products, (ii) chemicals and chemical products, (iii) coke and refined petroleum products, and (iv) basic metals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how China has been portrayed in international cinema throughout the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Using the Internet Movie Database, the authors extract the plot synopses of 4,927 China-related films. The authors apply the word embedding technology and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model to explore the cinematic plots, as well as achieve the sentiment score and ascertain the socioeconomic factors of score change. The findings indicate that the image of China in international cinema has been associated with gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment. The image of China changed from the barbarian to the schemer, and finally to the civilized great power, giving the insight into cultural trends that traditional research methods cannot capture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This editorial summarizes the papers in issue 18(1) (2023). The first paper sets out a game-theoretic duopolistic spatial model to investigate whether online retailing causes more transportation-related emissions than offline retailing. The second paper proposes a methodology for statistically downscaling projected gross domestic product (GDP). The third paper presents a Bayesian approach for the estimation of a spatial weight matrix. The fourth paper proposes a two-step spatial non-parametric estimator for the distribution dynamics approach to study income convergence, extended with spatially dependent error terms. The fifth paper combines a gravity-RAS approach with the estimation of an econometric gravity model when regional export and import totals are available but interregional trade data are not. The sixth paper estimates the impact of country-specific immigrants settled in 611 Italian regions on the arrival of new immigrants in destination and adjacent regions. The seventh paper investigates the impact of the market potential of a region on individual wages. The eighth paper tests whether female labour force participation rates vary with past participation rates in their own and neighbouring counties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a method of estimating the current state of Latvia's economy. The evaluation object is medium to long-run growth of real GDP, but not actual GDP itself, which helps to filter out various one-off effects and focus on medium and long-run tendencies. Our indicator, called LATCOIN (Latvia's Business Cycle Coincidence Indicator), could be viewed as a simple adaptation of new EUROCOIN for Latvia with some changes in methodology. LATCOIN is a monthly estimate of the medium to long-run growth of Latvia's real GDP, which is produced on the 9th working day of the next month. Using a large panel of macroeconomic variables, a few smooth unobservable factors describing the economy are constructed. Further, these factors are used for the estimation of LATCOIN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports an examination of the economic contribution to Spain provided by sport hunting. This paper identifies the main stakeholders, the overall expenses and contribution to the Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP), tax revenue, and the number of jobs supported. The results confirm that hunting can be considered a key economic activity for the Spanish environment and primary sector, and a measure combatting rural depopulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The past decade has seen an increase in renewable energy sources in the energy mix due to global environmental and supply security concerns. This paper aimed to investigate renewable energy effects on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). The investigation is from 1988 to 2018, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL), and fully modified OLS (FMOL) techniques. Based on empirical analyses of ARDL and FMOLS, it was found that both renewable and nonrenewable energies have a positive impact on economic growth in the Southern African power pool. However, the NARDL estimation indicates that neither renewable nor nonrenewable energy has a significant effect on economic growth in Southern African power pool. Therefore, based on the findings from both ARDL and FMOLS, the growth hypothesis is supported regarding the connection between renewable energy and economic growth in the Southern Africa power pool. Centered on the results, some policy implications were drawn for SAPP for sustainable economic growth, which includes measures to increase renewable energy in the energy mix, and also to encourage the optimization of cross-border connections where energy production from countries within SAPP that are not restricted by natural resources can be relied on to export sustainable energy. Additionally, building a more sustainable integrated power system in the region will assist SAPP with sustainable energy access and reduce the dependence on nonrenewable energy within the interconnected countries soon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]