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The purpose of this paper was to evaluate the feasibility of conversion from dryland to paddy field in Jinxian County under the water resources constraint and dryland suitability condition. We constructed a water resources balance model to evaluate irrigation needs and a dryland suitability model that coupled various spatial data layers. Our research showed that under the water resources constraint, the amount of conversion from dryland to paddy field was 26,971.69 ha and the feasible conversion degree of dryland to paddy field was 0.84, while under the dryland suitability condition, it was 23,262.74 ha and 0.72, respectively. According to the principle of maximum constraint, we conclude that the feasible conversion degree of dryland to paddy field was 0.72. This research can provide an objective and scientific basis for carrying out a programme of farmland conversion in counties of China as well as similar areas worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates hydrological responses to climate change in the Luan River basin in North China. The average outputs of IPCC AR4 multi-models under different scenarios (SRES-A2, A1B and B1) are used to drive the SWAT model after calibration to simulate hydrological processes during 2011–2099. Results show increasing trends for precipitation, temperature and runoff under all scenarios, while compared to the baseline, the annual runoff decreases except for a slight increase during the 2080s under the A2 and A1B scenarios; meanwhile, the runoff in spring, autumn and winter decreases except for a slight increase during the 2080s under A2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water, as a source of food security, plays an essential role in ensuring sustainable food resources for a growing population. However, water scarcity has increasingly become a constraint to economic development, particularly food production. The water-food challenge is impending because of China's increasing population and water demand. The concept of virtual water is useful to analyze this problem. In this paper, the implications and policy relevance of virtual water are expounded. Based on imported food volumes, it is calculated that an annual average of 10.52 x 109 m³ of virtual water embodied in imported wheat and maize in the period between 1990 and 2000 is equivalent to 23% of the annual average transfer water volume of the South-North Water Transfer (SNWT) project. Consequently, this 29.3 x 106 ha of virtual land is equivalent to 19% of China's arable land in 2000. Using the grain import prediction and the agricultural production conditions of China, the virtual water equivalents of China in 2010 and 2020 are evaluated, and are about 88 x 109 m³ in 2010 and 95 x 109 m³ in 2020, respectively. Importing virtual water embedded in traded food can alleviate water stress and even achieve food security. Virtual water trade may compensate for water demands for not only the past but also the future. Meanwhile, water trade can store water in its virtual water form, enabling food storage to play a potential role in solving food problems, as well as promoting sustainability of water resources in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]