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Identifying and understanding reasons for deriving software development defects is crucial for ensuring software product quality attributes such as maintainability. This paper presents a systematic literature review and the objective is to analyze the suggestions of other authors regarding software code defect prediction using machine learning, deep learning, or other artificial intelligence methods for the identification of software quality. The systemic literature review reveals that many analyzed papers considered multiple software code defects, but they were analyzed individually. However, more is needed to identify software quality attributes. The more profound analysis of code smells indicates the significance when considering multiple detected code smells and their interconnectedness; it helps to identify the software quality sub-attributes of maintainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the recent evolution of the electricity price of one of the East-European countries' Balancing Markets (BM) - Romania, aiming to understand the prices trend and predict them in the current economic and geopolitical context. This is especially important as the electricity producers have to allocate their output between wholesale electricity market, ancillary services markets and BM targeting to maximize value and achieve a sustainable economic development. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an AI-powered electricity price forecast using several types of standout Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as classifiers and regressors to predict the electricity price on BM. This approach, consisting of two steps, identifies the imbalance sign and significantly enhances the performance of the price forecast. The proposed method offers valuable insights into the market participants' trading opportunities using two prediction solutions. The first prediction solution consists of averaging the results of five ensemble ML algorithms. The second one consists in weighting the results of the five forecasting ML algorithms using either a linear regression or a decision tree algorithm. Thus, we propose to combine supervised and unsupervised ML algorithms and find the fundamentals for creating optimal bidding strategies for electricity market players. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the trading rules and financial data structure of the stock index futures market, and considering the impact of major emergencies, we intend to build a quantitative investment decision-making model based on machine learning. We first adopt the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) signal decomposition technology to separate the short-term noise, cycle transformation and long-term trend from the original series, and use the CSI 500 Baidu index series to reflect the investors' attention, which provides data support for establishing a more effective forecasting model. Then, the CEEMDAN-BP neural network model is designed based on the obtained effective information of low-frequency trend series, investor attention index and CSI 500 stock index futures market transaction data. Finally, an Attention-based Dual Thrust quantitative trading strategy is proposed and optimized. The optimized Attention-based Dual Thrust strategy solves the core problem of breakout interval determination, effectively avoids the risk of subjective selection, and can meet investors' different risk preferences. The quantitative investment decision-making model based on CEEMDAN-BP neural network utilizes the advantages of different algorithms, avoids some defects of a single algorithm, and can make corresponding adjustments according to changes in investors' attention and the occurrence of emergencies. The results show that considering investor attention can not only improve the predictive ability of the model, but also reduce the cognitive bias of the market, effectively control risks and obtain higher returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning (ML) algorithms are more and more widely applied in various types of systems, so the research related to them is also increasing. One of the areas of research under consideration is the classification of non-functional requirements (NFRs) using ML algorithms. This area of research is important because the automatic classification of NFRs using high-performance ML algorithms and corresponding features helps requirements engineers classify non-functional requirements more accurately. This paper examines ML algorithms suitable for solving classification problems and their effectiveness in classifying non-functional requirements. Based on the described stages of the research methodology ML algorithms models were compared using the accuracy, precision, recall, and F-score metrics. A majority voting classifier model was created using Support Vector Machine, Naïve Bayes and K Nearest Neighbor Algorithm algorithms. After K-Fold cross validation were obtained these results: accuracy - 0.710 (scale from 0 to 1), precision - 0.845, recall - 0.814 and F-score - 0.815. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of machine learning algorithms has become widespread particularly in fields such as medicine, business, and commerce. However, achieving accurate classification results with these algorithms often relies on large-scale training datasets, making data collection a lengthy and complex process. This paper reviews the current utilization of generative adversarial network (GAN) architectures and discusses recent scientific research on their practical applications. The study emphasizes the significance of addressing data scarcity in the process of training the machine learning algorithms and highlights the potential of advanced GAN architectures, in particular StyleGAN2-ADA, to mitigate this challenge. The findings contribute to ongoing efforts aimed at enhancing the efficiency and applicability of artificial intelligence across diverse domains by presenting a viable solution to the constraint of limited training data for image classification tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scholarly modeling of property tax has always posed a challenge, with two primary concerns to be addressed: first, maintaining sustainability in the collection, which is primarily a concern for local governments; and second, ensuring fair distribution, which is of greater concern for citizens. In today's practices, assessment-based property tax increases unmatched expenses in bubble economies. There is a substitution problem in rapid falls, the tendency to not decrease the assessments gives way to black holes and opens the door to ghost cities. This paper proposes alternative approaches, aside from market/land value or last sold price, aimed at improving sustainability and fairness rates. The dataset examined is based on 93.7K records and 88 attributes for assessed value of properties within the City of Buffalo, the United States of America. Since the label (Total Value) is a numerical and continuous value, regression models are selected, where ensemble machine learning methods categorically work well with larger datasets, combined with weak learners, like decision trees. Stacked Ensemble led the least error for regression with 0.98 R², followed by Gradient Boosting. Results show a 79% dominance of uncontrollable attributes, such as Land Value, Neighborhood, and Sale (last sold) Price, compared to controllable attributes, such as Total Living Area, Construction Grade, Second Story Area, and many others. This article suggests having a more balanced split between uncontrollable and controllable attributes would contribute to both sustainability and fair distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The design of stud connectors is aided by determining the relationship between shear strength and the input variables (number, diameter, height, tensile strength and elastic modulus of the studs, and compressive strength and elastic modulus of the concrete) that influence strength. Since strength is nonlinearly related to the influencing variables, which makes the predictions of the relevant empirical equations unreliable, the use of machine learning (ML) models is preferred. The prediction results of eight machine learning models were evaluated, including linear regression (LR1), ridge regression (RR), lasso regression (LR2), back-propagation artificial neural network (BP ANN), genetic algorithm optimized BP ANN (GA-BP ANN), extreme learning machines (ELM), random forests (RF), and support vector machines (SVM). The results show that the GA-BP ANN model is the most accurate model for prediction with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 6.17% and an R² of 0.9599. Based on the GA-BP ANN model and the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method, a new parameter importance analysis method was developed to compare the magnitude of the effect of different input variables on strength. It was found that stud diameter had the greatest effect on shear strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a new algorithm for exploiting time-series predictability-based patterns to obtain an abnormal return, or alpha, with respect to a given benchmark asset pricing model. The algorithm proposes a deterministic daily market timing strategy that decides between being fully invested in a risky asset or in a risk-free asset, with the trading rule represented by a parametric perceptron. The optimal parameters are sought in-sample via differential evolution to directly maximize the alpha. Successively using two modern asset pricing models and two different portfolio weighting schemes, the algorithm was able to discover an undocumented anomaly in the United States stock market cross-section, both out-of-sample and using small transaction costs. The new algorithm represents a simple and flexible alternative to technical analysis and forecast-based trading rules, neither of which necessarily maximizes the alpha. This new algorithm was inspired by recent insights into representing reinforcement learning as evolutionary computation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial systemic risk is an important issue in economics and financial systems. Trying to detect and respond to systemic risk with growing amounts of data produced in financial markets and systems, a lot of researchers have increasingly employed machine learning methods. Machine learning methods study the mechanisms of outbreak and contagion of systemic risk in the financial network and improve the current regulation of the financial market and industry. In this paper, we survey existing researches and methodologies on assessment and measurement of financial systemic risk combined with machine learning technologies, including big data analysis, network analysis and sentiment analysis, etc. In addition, we identify future challenges, and suggest further research topics. The main purpose of this paper is to introduce current researches on financial systemic risk with machine learning methods and to propose directions for future work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the factors that affect Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and how they affect them is frequently important in sectors where data and data science are crucial. Machine learning is utilized to model and predict pertinent KPIs in order to do this. Interpretability is important, nevertheless, in order to fully comprehend how the model generates its predictions. It enables users to pinpoint which traits have aided the model's ability to learn and comprehend the data. A practical approach for evaluating the contribution of input attributes to model learning has evolved in the form of SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations offer an index for evaluating the influence of each feature on the forecasts made by the model. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the contribution of features to model learning may be precisely estimated when utilizing SHAP values with decision tree-based models, which are frequently used to represent tabular data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- The paper presents the results of the study based on a sample of 358 organisations that focuses on further education and training (FET) of their employees. It specifically investigates which specific educational methods and various characteristics of organisations are associated with their financial performance. Research methodology -- The Dependency Aware Feature (DAF) selection method from statistical pattern recognition has been used to identify which of the 37 considered variables are most associated with the profitability indicators (ROA, ROCE, ROS). Findings -- The profitability indices are significantly associated with some of the specific methods of FET. Organisations should pay attention particularly to instructing, coaching and mentoring. The results also confirm the importance of talent management for organisations to be successful. Research limitations -- The examined sample consists solely of organisations operating in the Czech Republic. Shortly, we plan to extend the selection by including organisations from abroad. Practical implications -- The study provides recommendations for HR managers for the goals they should focus on. Organisations should evaluate the impacts of FET; otherwise increasing investments in it may not have an effect. Originality/Value -- The originality of the current study lies in using a new methodology based on machine learning and respecting complex mutual relations among variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novelty of this paper is to ascertain a nonlinear relationship between housing supply and house price. This study is conducted based on panel dataset of four different types of houses in Malaysia from 2002Q3 through 2016Q4. Although housing supply has been theoretically assumed to be positively and linearly related to house price, we observed that the number of new houses build in Malaysia has declined despite the increasing house prices. Hence, we posit that housing supply and house price are nonlinearly related. The results from pooled mean group estimation show the existence of inverted U-shaped housing supply curve. The threshold level of house price index is found at 186.92 where the effect of house price on housing starts will become negative after this point. We also find that the marginal effects of house price evaluated at the minimum and maximum levels are positive and negative, respectively, and statistically significant. This paper suggests that the squared term of house price should be included in estimating housing supply in Malaysia. The evidence of inverted U-shaped housing supply curve in Malaysia shows that housing authorities have taken steps to overcome the challenges of oversupply by reducing the approvals for housing development projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade-based Money Laundering, a new form of money laundering using international trade as a signboard, always appears along with speculative capital movement which has been accepted as the most concerned and consensus incentive giving rise to the collapse of the financial market. Unfortunately, preventing money laundering is very difficult since money laundering always has a plausible trade characterization. To reach this goal, supervision for regulator and financial institutions aims to effectively monitor micro entities' behavior in financial markets. The main purpose of this paper is to establish a monitoring method including accurate recognition and classified supervision for Trade-based Money Laundering by means of knowledge-driven multi-class classifi- cation algorithms associated with macro and micro prudential regulation, such that the model can forecast the predicted class from the concerned management areas. Based on empirical data from China, we demonstrate the application and explain how the monitor method can help to improve management efficiency in the financial market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the recent evolution of the electricity price of one of the EastEuropean countries’ Balancing Markets (BM) – Romania, aiming to understand the prices trend and predict them in the current economic and geopolitical context. This is especially important as the electricity producers have to allocate their output between wholesale electricity market, ancillary services markets and BM targeting to maximize value and achieve a sustainable economic development. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an AI-powered electricity price forecast using several types of standout Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as classifiers and regressors to predict the electricity price on BM. This approach, consisting of two steps, identifies the imbalance sign and significantly enhances the performance of the price forecast. The proposed method offers valuable insights into the market participants’ trading opportunities using two prediction solutions. The first prediction solution consists of averaging the results of five ensemble ML algorithms. The second one consists in weighting the results of the five forecasting ML algorithms using either a linear regression or a decision tree algorithm. Thus, we propose to combine supervised and unsupervised ML algorithms and find the fundamentals for creating optimal bidding strategies for electricity market players. First published online 14 November 2023

In building management systems (BMS), a medium building may have between 200 and 1000 sensor points. Their labels need to be translated into a naming standard so they can be automatically recognised by the BMS platform. The current industrial practices often manually translate these points into labels (this is known as the tagging process), which takes around 8 hours for every 100 points. We introduce an AI-based multi-stage text classification that translates BMS points into formatted BMS labels. After comparing five different techniques for text classification (logistic regression, random forests, XGBoost, multinomial Naive Bayes and linear support vector classification), we demonstrate that XGBoost is the top performer with 90.29% of true positives, and use the prediction confidence to filter out false positives. This approach can be applied in sensors networks in various applications, where manual free-text data pre-processing remains cumbersome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial auditing cannot be imagined without the involvement of IT specialists since business processes are designed to be served by IT components such as ERP systems, online customer- facing applications, databases etc. Financial auditors therefore exposed to IT system and control reliance want to gain reasonable assurance that data and transactions stored in IT systems cannot be modified, access is controlled, and there is no suspicion of any fraud at business organizations. The paper tries to understand the current situation of IT audit involvement in financial auditing, interpret risks that parties face and provide some solutions by use of intelligent applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Support vector machines (SVMs), with their roots in Statistical Learning Theory (SLT) and optimization methods, have become powerful tools for problem solution in machine learning. SVMs reduce most machine learning problems to optimization problems and optimization lies at the heart of SVMs. Lots of SVM algorithms involve solving not only convex problems, such as linear programming, quadratic programming, second order cone programming, semi-definite programming, but also non-convex and more general optimization problems, such as integer programming, semi-infinite programming, bi-level programming and so on. The purpose of this paper is to understand SVM from the optimization point of view, review several representative optimization models in SVMs, their applications in economics, in order to promote the research interests in both optimization-based SVMs theory and economics applications. This paper starts with summarizing and explaining the nature of SVMs. It then proceeds to discuss optimization models for SVM following three major themes. First, least squares SVM, twin SVM, AUC Maximizing SVM, and fuzzy SVM are discussed for standard problems. Second, support vector ordinal machine, semisupervised SVM, Universum SVM, robust SVM, knowledge based SVM and multi-instance SVM are then presented for nonstandard problems. Third, we explore other important issues such as lp-norm SVM for feature selection, LOOSVM based on minimizing LOO error bound, probabilistic outputs for SVM, and rule extraction from SVM. At last, several applications of SVMs to financial forecasting, bankruptcy prediction, credit risk analysis are introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper adopts a novel approach of Support Vector Machine (SVM) to forecast residential housing prices. as one type of machine learning algorithm, the proposed SVM encompasses a larger set of variables that are recognized as price-influencing and meanwhile enables recognizing the geographical pattern of housing price dynamics. The analytical framework consists of two steps. The first step is to identify the supporting vectors (SVs) to price variances using the stepwise multi-regression approach; and then it is to forecast the housing price variances by employing the SVs identified by the first step as well as other variables postulated by the hedonic price theory, where the housing prices in Taipei City are empirically examined to verify the designed framework. Results computed by nonparametric estimation confirm that the prediction power of using SVM in housing price forecasting is of high accuracy. Further studies are suggested to extract the geographical weights using kernel density estimates to reflect price responses to local quantiles of hedonic attributes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bid/no bid decision is an important and complex process, and is impacted by numerous variables that are related to the contractor, project, client, competitors, tender and market conditions. Despite the complexity of bid decision making process, in the construction industry the majority of bid/no bid decisions is made informally based on experience, judgment, and perception. In this paper, a procedure based on support vector machines and backward elimination regression is presented for improving the existing bid decision making methods. The method takes advantage of the strong generalization properties of support vector machines and attempts to further enhance generalization performance by eliminating insignificant input variables. The method is implemented for bid/no bid decision making of offshore oil and gas platform fabrication projects to achieve a parsimonious support vector machine classifier. The performance of the support vector machine classifier is compared with the performances of the worth evaluation model, linear regression, and neural network classifiers. The results show that the support vector machine classifier outperforms existing methods significantly, and the proposed procedure provides a powerful tool for bid/no bid decision making. The results also reveal that elimination of the insignificant input variables improves generalization performance of the support vector machines. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A common technique for assessing the overall water quality state of surface water and groundwater systems globally is the water quality index (WQI) method. The aim of the research is to use four machine learning classifier algorithms: Gradient boosting, Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbour to determine which model was most effective at forecasting the various water quality index and classes of the Albanian Shkumbini River. The analysis was performed on the data collected during a 4-year period, in six monitoring points, for nine parameters. The predictive accuracy of the models, XGBoost, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbour, and Naive Bayes, was determined to be 98.61%, 94.44%, 91.22%, and 94.45%, respectively. Notably, the XGBoost algorithm demonstrated superior performance in terms of F1 score, sensitivity, and prediction accuracy, the lowest errors during both learning (RMSE = 2.1, MSE = 9.8, MAE = 1.13) and evaluating (RMSE = 0.0, MSE = 0.01, MAE = 0.01) stages. The findings highlighted that Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), Bicarbonate (HCO3), and Total Phosphor had the most positive impact on the Shkumbini River's water quality. Additionally, a statistically significant, strong positive correlation (r = 0.85) was identified between BOD and WQI, emphasizing its crucial role in influencing water quality in the Shkumbini River. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The biophysical characteristics of the areas that can be seen while travelling on motorways have an impact on the perception of the landscape. Highways provide diverse landscape experiences to travellers according to their natural and cultural qualities. Especially coastal ways that combine with nature and the sea have a high potential for scenic attractiveness. This study aims to analyse the scenic attractiveness of coastal ways using GIS and RS techniques. Persembe-Bolaman coastal way in the Black Sea Region of Turkey was selected as a case study. Three road features and seven viewshed features that are assumed to affect landscape attractiveness on the Persembe-Bolaman coastal road were selected. The data set of these features was categorised into three clusters by k-means clustering, one of the unsupervised learning algorithms. The most attractive cluster in terms of scenic attractiveness was selected by determining the characteristics of the clusters. In conclusion, it was found that the scenic attractiveness was the highest in Cluster-1, which corresponds to 46.3% of the selected route. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is aimed at examining the role of annual reports’ sentiment in forecasting financial performance. The sentiment (tone, opinion) is assessed using several categorization schemes in order to explore various aspects of language used in the annual reports of U.S. companies. Further, we employ machine learning methods and neural networks to predict financial performance expressed in terms of theZ-score bankruptcy model. Eleven categories of sentiment (ranging from negative and positive to active and common) are used as the inputs of the prediction models. Support vector machines provide the highest forecasting accuracy. This evidence suggests that there exist non-linear relationships between the sentiment and financial performance. The results indicate that the sentiment information is an important forecasting determinant of financial performance and, thus, can be used to support decision-making process of corporate stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning techniques have proven good performance in classification matters of all kinds: medical diagnosis, character recognition, credit default and fraud prediction, and also foreign exchange market prognosis. Customer segmentation in private banking sector is an important step for profitable business development, enabling financial institutions to address their products and services to homogeneous classes of customers. This paper approaches two of the most popular machine learning techniques, Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines, and describes how each of these perform in a segmentation process. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Copyright of Transport (16484142) is the property of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Network intrusion detection is a relevant cybersecurity research field. The growing number of intrusions requires more sophisticated methods to protect computer networks. Various machine learning algorithms are used to detect network intrusions and anomalies, but their accuracy is limited. In this research, we address the problem of improving network-level intrusion detection by applying hybrid machine-learning algorithms. The paper proposes three new hybrid machine learning methods and investigates their accuracy using two publicly available datasets CSE-CIC-IDS2018 and NSW-NB-15. In order to increase the accuracy of the classification models, hyperparameter optimization was performed. The iteration method and the Chi-square χ2 test were used to identify significant features of the data set. Analyzing the research results, it was found that the highest network anomaly recognition accuracy of 99.34% was achieved by applying a hybrid algorithm consisting of a decision tree, naive Bayesian, and multilayer perceptron algorithms. Achieved result is 3.13% higher than the best accuracy achieved by individual machine learning algorithms. In order to comprehensively evaluate the studied machine learning algorithms and their suitability for detecting intrusions in a computer network, the algorithms were ranked using the SCR, DR, FR ranking methods. Article in Lithuanian. Įsilaužimų aptikimas kompiuterių tinkluose taikant hibridinius mašininio mokymosi metodus Santrauka Viena iš aktualių kibernetinės saugos tyrimų krypčių – tai įsilaužimų arba anomalijų aptikimas kompiuterių tinkle. Įsilaužimų skaičius nuolat didėja, o taikomos įsilaužimo technikos ir metodai sudėtingėja, todėl siekiant apsaugoti kompiuterių tinklą, reikia taikyti vis sudėtingesnius apsaugos metodus. Tinklo įsilaužimams ir anomalijoms nustatyti taikomi įvairūs mašininio mokymosi algoritmai, tačiau jų tikslumas yra ribotas. Siekiama pagerinti tinklo anomalijų aptikimą, taikomi hibridiniai mašininio mokymosi algoritmai. Straipsnyje pasiūlyti trys nauji hibridiniai mašininio mokymosi algoritmai, ištirtas jų tikslumas naudojant du viešai prieinamus duomenų rinkinius, t. y. CSE-CIC-IDS2018 ir NSW-NB-15. Siekiant padidinti klasifikavimo modelių tikslumą, buvo atliktas hiperparametrų optimizavimas. Reikšmingiems duomenų rinkinio požymiams nustatyti taikytas iteracijų metodas ir Chi kvadrato χ2 testas. Analizuojant tyrimo rezultatus, nustatyta, kad aukščiausias tinklo anomalijų atpažinimo tikslumas 99,34 % buvo pasiektas taikant hibridinį algoritmą, sudarytą iš sprendimų medžio, naivaus Bajeso ir daugiasluoksnio perceptrono algoritmų rinkinio. Šis rezultatas yra 3,13 % geresnis, lyginant su geriausiu tikslumu, gautu taikant atskirus mašininio mokymosi algoritmus. Siekiant kompleksiškai įvertinti tirtus mašininio mokymosi algoritmus ir jų tinkamumą įsilaužimams kompiuterių tinkle aptikti, algoritmai buvo sureitinguoti taikant SCR, DR, FR reitingavimo metodus. Reikšminiai žodžiai: tinklo anomalijos, mašininis mokymasis, χ2 Chi kvadratu testas, hiperparametrai, hibridiniai algoritmai.

The main tool of cockpit crew performance evaluation is the recorded flight data used for flight operations safety improvement since all certified airlines require implementation of a safety and quality management system. The safety performance of a flight has been a challenging issue in the aviation industry and plays an important role to acquire competitive benefits. In this study, an integrated multi-class classification machine learning models and Markov chain were developed for cockpit crew performance evaluation during their flights. At the outset, the main features related to a flight are identified based on the literature review, flight operations expert's statements, and the case study dataset (as numerical example). Afterwards, the flights' performance is evaluated as a target column based on four multi-class classification models (Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, Neural Network, and Random Forest). The results showed that the random forest classifier has the greatest value in all evaluation metrics (i.e., accuracy = 0.90, precision = 0.91, recall = 0.97, and F1-score = 0.93). Therefore, this model can be used by the airline companies to predict flight crew performance before the flight in order to prevent or decrease flight safety risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development and availability of information technology and the possibility of deep integration of internal IT systems with external ones gives a powerful opportunity to analyze data online based on external data providers. Recently, machine learning algorithms play a significant role in predicting different processes. This research aims to apply several machine learning algorithms to predict high frequent daily hotel occupancy at a Chinese hotel. Five machine learning models (bagged CART, bagged MARS, XGBoost, random forest, SVM) were optimized and applied for predicting occupancy. All models are compared using different model accuracy measures and with an ARDL model chosen as a benchmark for comparison. It was found that the bagged CART model showed the most relevant results (R2 > 0.50) in all periods, but the model could not beat the traditional ARDL model. Thus, despite the original use of machine learning algorithms in solving regression tasks, the models used in this research could have been more effective than the benchmark model. In addition, the variables’ importance was used to check the hypothesis that the Baidu search index and its components can be used in machine learning models to predict hotel occupancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Science: Future of Lithuania / Mokslas: Lietuvos Ateitis is the property of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Studies on safety in aviation are necessary for the development of new technologies to forecast and prevent aeronautical accidents and incidents. When predicting these occurrences, the literature frequently considers the internal characteristics of aeronautical operations, such as aircraft telemetry and flight procedures, or external characteristics, such as meteorological conditions, with only few relationships being identified between the two. In this study, data from 6,188 aeronautical occurrences involving accidents, incidents, and serious incidents, in Brazil between January 2010 and October 2021, as well as meteorological data from two automatic weather stations, totaling more than 2.8 million observations, were investigated using machine learning tools. For data analysis, decision tree, extra trees, Gaussian naive Bayes, gradient boosting, and k-nearest neighbor classifiers with a high identification accuracy of 96.20% were used. Consequently, the developed algorithm can predict occurrences as functions of operational and meteorological patterns. Variables such as maximum take-off weight, aircraft registration and model, and wind direction are among the main forecasters of aeronautical accidents or incidents. This study provides insight into the development of new technologies and measures to prevent such occurrences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article proposes a method for multi-purpose password dataset generation suitable for use in further machine learning and other research related, directly or indirectly, to passwords. Currently, password datasets are not suitable for machine learning or decision-driven password cracking. Most password datasets are just any old password dictionaries that contain only leaked and common passwords and no other information. Other password datasets are small and include only weak passwords that have previously been leaked. The literature is rich in terms of methods used for password cracking based on password datasets. Those methods are mainly focused on generating more password candidates like the ones included in the training dataset. The proposed method exploits statistical analysis of leaked passwords and randomness to ensure diversity in the dataset. An experiment with the generated dataset has shown significant improvement in time when performing dictionary attack but not when performing brute-force attack. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we examine the prediction accuracy of machine learning methods to estimate commercial real estate transaction prices. Using machine learning methods, including Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Deep Neural Networks (DNN), we estimate the commercial real estate transaction price by comparing relative prediction accuracy. Data consist of 19,640 transaction-based office properties provided by Costar corresponding to the 2004-2017 period for 10 major U.S. CMSA (Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area). We conduct each machine learning method and compare the performance to identify a critical determinant model for each office market. Furthermore, we depict a partial dependence plot (PD) to verify the impact of research variables on predicted commercial office property value. In general, we expect that results from machine learning will provide a set of critical determinants to commercial office price with more predictive power overcoming the limitation of the traditional valuation model. The result for 10 CMSA will provide critical implications for the out-of-state investors to understand regional commercial real estate market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future in the services industry belongs to Artificial Intelligence (AI) driven machines, which is a major source of worry for the job market in India. Over 50% of India’s GDP constitutes services, and it is a major source of employment for the skilled manpower of India. The research measures the impact of AI on service jobs in India based on qualitative parameters such as logical, natural, physical, and compassion; and finds which aspect serves the jobs better between machines and humans. The jobs taken over by AI are primarily at the task level more than the job level and for the basic tasks predominantly. The replacement starts with the basic tasks involved in providing service and then it grows to perform all the tasks involved in services. The research finds out that the logical aspects of the service will slowly reduce in the coming 5–10 years as AI will perform all the logic-related tasks leaving more emotional tasks such as compassion for humans. Finally, even these emotional-related tasks will be taken over by the AI which provides us with a very interesting combination of man and machine in the Indian scenario still threatening human employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Banks and financial institutions rely on loan default prediction models in credit risk management. An important yet challenging task in developing and applying default classification models is model evaluation and selection. This study proposes an evaluation approach for bank loan default classification models based on multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods. A large real-life Chinese bank loan dataset is used to validate the proposed approach. Specifically, a set of performance metrics is utilized to measure a selection of statistical and machine-learning default models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), a MCDM method, takes the performances of default classification models on multiple performance metrics as inputs to generate a ranking of default risk models. In addition, feature selection and sampling techniques are applied to the data pre-processing step to handle high dimensionality and class unbalancedness of bank loan default data. The results show thatK-Nearest Neighbor algorithm has a good potential in bank loan default prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the possibilities of speculating in exchangetraded funds by using artificial intelligence. The main goal of the research is to create a support system for speculative decisionmaking for investors operating in exchange-traded funds market. The research will be based on the theoretical aspects of artificial intelligence and speculation of exchange-traded funds. The support system is developed on the basis of reinforcement learning, the methods of synthesis, concretization and generalization were used to create and detail the system, as well as the methods of mathematical-statistical analysis were used to process them. Successful application of the chosen methodology in the design of the support system has resulted in positive trade results. Successful research broadens the boundaries for usage of deep reinforcement learning, and provides a basis for further development of the support system for exchange-traded funds. The support system put in place will shorten the time between the occurrence of a trading signal and the decision of the investor, which will help to reduce the loss of potential profits. Article in Lithuanian. Paramos sistema spekuliavimui biržoje prekiaujamais fondais Santrauka Darbe yra nagrinėjamos spekuliavimo biržoje prekiaujamais fondais, naudojant dirbtinį intelektą, galimybės. Pagrindinis mokslinio tyrimo tikslas – remiantis dirbtinio intelekto bei biržoje prekiaujamų fondų spekuliavimo teoriniais aspektais, sukurti spekuliavimo sprendimų priėmimo paramos sistemą investuotojams, veikiantiems biržoje prekiaujamų fondų rinkoje. Paramos sistema yra kuriama remiantis sustiprintuoju mokymusi (angl. reinforcement learning), sistemai sudaryti ir detalizuoti buvo taikyti sintezės, konkretizavimo bei apibendrinimo metodai, taip pat, panaudojus susidarytą sistemą bei gavus rezultatus, jiems apdoroti taikyti matematinės-statistinės analizės metodai. Sėkmingai pritaikius pasirinktą metodologiją, sudarant paramos sistemą, buvo gauti teigiami prekybos rezultatai. Sėkmingas tyrimas išplečia giliojo sustiprintojo mokymosi taikymo suvokimo ribas bei sudaro pagrindą tolesniam biržoje prekiaujamų fondų paramos sistemos vystymui. Sudaryta paramos sistema sutrumpins sugaištamą laiką tarp prekybos signalo atsiradimo ir investuotojo sprendimo priėmimo, o tai padės sumažinti potencialaus pelno praradimą. Reikšminiai žodžiai: paramos sistema, biržoje prekiaujami fondai, spekuliavimas, dirbtinis intelektas, finansų rinka, sustiprintasis mokymasis, mašininis mokymasis.

This paper introduces a new algorithm for exploiting time-series predictability-based patterns to obtain an abnormal return, or alpha, with respect to a given benchmark asset pricing model. The algorithm proposes a deterministic daily market timing strategy that decides between being fully invested in a risky asset or in a risk-free asset, with the trading rule represented by a parametric perceptron. The optimal parameters are sought in-sample via differential evolution to directly maximize the alpha. Successively using two modern asset pricing models and two different portfolio weighting schemes, the algorithm was able to discover an undocumented anomaly in the United States stock market cross-section, both out-of-sample and using small transaction costs. The new algorithm represents a simple and flexible alternative to technical analysis and forecast-based trading rules, neither of which necessarily maximizes the alpha. This new algorithm was inspired by recent insights into representing reinforcement learning as evolutionary computation. First published online 29 November 2021

This study aims to bridge the gap between two perspectives of explainability-machine learning and engineering, and economics and standard econometrics-by applying three marginal measurements. The existing real estate literature has primarily used econometric models to analyze the factors that affect the default risk of mortgage loans. However, in this study, we estimate a default risk model using a machine learning-based approach with the help of a U.S. securitized mortgage loan database. Moreover, we compare the economic explainability of the models by calculating the marginal effect and marginal importance of individual risk factors using both econometric and machine learning approaches. Machine learning-based models are quite effective in terms of predictive power; however, the general perception is that they do not efficiently explain the causal relationships within them. This study utilizes the concepts of marginal effects and marginal importance to compare the explanatory power of individual input variables in various models. This can simultaneously help improve the explainability of machine learning techniques and enhance the performance of standard econometric methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the popularity deep learning has been gaining, measuring the uncertainty within the result has not met expectations in many deep learning applications and this includes property valuation. In real-world tasks, however, rather than simply requiring predictions, assurance of the certainty of the predictions is also demanded. In this study, supervised learning is combined with unsupervised learning to bridge this gap. A method based on principal component analysis, a popular tool of unsupervised learning, was developed and used to represent the uncertainty in property valuation. Then, a neural network, a representative algorithm to implement supervised learning, was constructed, and trained to predict land prices. Finally, the uncertainty that was measured using principal component analysis was incorporated into the price predicted by the neural network. This hybrid approach is shown to be likely to improve the credibility of the valuation work. The findings of this study are expected to generate interest in the integration of the two learning approaches, thereby promoting the rapid adoption of deep learning tools in the property valuation industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Credit scoring, which is typically transformed into a classification problem, is a powerful tool to manage credit risk since it forecasts the probability of default (PD) of a loan application. However, there is a growing trend of integrating survival analysis into credit scoring to provide a dynamic prediction on PD over time and a clear explanation on censoring. A novel dynamic credit scoring model (i.e., SurvXGBoost) is proposed based on survival gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) approach. Our proposal, which combines survival analysis and GBDT approach, is expected to enhance predictability relative to statistical survival models. The proposed method is compared with several common benchmark models on a real-world consumer loan dataset. The results of out-of-sample and out-of-time validation indicate that SurvXGBoost outperform the benchmarks in terms of predictability and misclassification cost. The incorporation of macroeconomic variables can further enhance performance of survival models. The proposed SurvXGBoost meanwhile maintains some interpretability since it provides information on feature importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study conducts a dynamic rolling comparison between the Pareto/NBD model (parametric model) and machine learning algorithms (observation-driven models) in customer base analysis, which the literature has not comprehensively investigated before. The aim is to find the comparative edge of these two approaches under customer base analysis and to define the implementation timing of these two paradigms. This research utilizes Pareto/NBD (Abe) as representative of Buy-Till-You-Die (BTYD) models in order to compete with machine learning algorithms and presents the following results. (1) The parametric model wins in transaction frequency prediction, whereas it loses in inactivity prediction. (2) The BTYD model outperforms machine learning in inactivity prediction when the customer base is active, performs better in an inactive customer base when competing with Poisson regression, and wins in a short-term active customer base when competing with a neural network algorithm in transaction frequency prediction. (3) The parametric model benefits more from a short calibration length and a long holdout/target period, which exhibit uncertainty. (4) The covariate effect helps Pareto/NBD (Abe) gain a better predictive result. These findings assist in defining the comparative edge and implementation timing of these two approaches and are useful for modeling and business decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Housing frenzies in China have attracted widespread global attention over the past few years, but the key is how to more accurately forecast housing prices in order to establish an effective real estate policy. Based on the ubiquitousness and immediacy of Internet data, this research adopts a broader version of text mining to search for keywords in relation to housing prices and then evaluates the predictive abilities using machine learning algorithms. Our findings indicate that this new method, especially random forest, not only detects turning points, but also offers prediction ability that clearly outperforms traditional regression analysis. Overall, the prediction based on online search data through a machine learning mechanism helps us better understand the trends of house prices in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Safety risk evaluations of deep foundation construction schemes are important to ensure safety. However, the amount of knowledge on these evaluations is large, and the historical data of deep foundation engineering is imbalanced. Some adverse factors influence the quality and efficiency of evaluations using traditional manual evaluation tools. Machine learning guarantees the quality of imbalanced data classifications. In this study, three strategies are proposed to improve the classification accuracy of imbalanced data sets. First, data set information redundancy is reduced using a binary particle swarm optimization algorithm. Then, a classification algorithm is modified using an Adaboost-enhanced support vector machine classifier. Finally, a new classification evaluation standard, namely, the area under the ROC curve, is adopted to ensure the classifier to be impartial to the minority. A transverse comparison experiment using multiple classification algorithms shows that the proposed integrated classification algorithm can overcome difficulties associated with correctly classifying minority samples in imbalanced data sets. The algorithm can also improve construction safety management evaluations, relieve the pressure from the lack of experienced experts accompanying rapid infrastructure construction, and facilitate knowledge reuse in the field of architecture, engineering, and construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning algorithms have emerged as a new paradigm shift in geoscience computations and applications. The present study aims to assess the suitability of Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) in coordinate transformation. The data used for the coordinate transformation constitute the Ghana national triangulation network which is based on the two-horizontal geodetic datums (Accra 1929 and Leigon 1977) utilised for geospatial applications in Ghana. The GMDH result was compared with other standard methods such as Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN), Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN), 2D conformal, and 2D affine. It was observed that the proposed GMDH approach is very efficient in transforming coordinates from the Leigon 1977 datum to the official mapping datum of Ghana, i.e. Accra 1929 datum. It was also found that GMDH could produce comparable and satisfactory results just like the widely used BPNN and RBFNN. However, the classical transformation methods (2D affine and 2D conformal) performed poorly when compared with the machine learning models (GMDH, BPNN and RBFNN). The computational strength of the machine learning models' is attributed to its self-adaptive capability to detect patterns in data set without considering the existence of functional relationships between the input and output variables. To this end, the proposed GMDH model could be used as a supplementary computational tool to the existing transformation procedures used in the Ghana geodetic reference network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade-based Money Laundering, a new form of money laundering using international trade as a signboard, always appears along with speculative capital movement which has been accepted as the most concerned and consensus incentive giving rise to the collapse of the financial market. Unfortunately, preventing money laundering is very difficult since money laundering always has a plausible trade characterization. To reach this goal, supervision for regulator and financial institutions aims to effectively monitor micro entities’ behavior in financial markets. The main purpose of this paper is to establish a monitoring method including accurate recognition and classified supervision for Trade-based Money Laundering by means of knowledge-driven multi-class classification algorithms associated with macro and micro prudential regulation, such that the model can forecast the predicted class from the concerned management areas. Based on empirical data from China, we demonstrate the application and explain how the monitor method can help to improve management efficiency in the financial market. First published online 8 May 2019

Financial auditing cannot be imagined without the involvement of IT specialists since business processes are designed to be served by IT components such as ERP systems, online customer-facing applications, databases etc. Financial auditors therefore exposed to IT system and control reliance want to gain reasonable assurance that data and transactions stored in IT systems cannot be modified, access is controlled, and there is no suspicion of any fraud at business organizations. The paper tries to understand the current situation of IT audit involvement in financial auditing, interpret risks that parties face and provide some solutions by use of intelligent applications.

Machine learning techniques have proven good performance in classification matters of all kinds: medical diagnosis, character recognition, credit default and fraud prediction, and also foreign exchange market prognosis. Customer segmentation in private banking sector is an important step for profitable business development, enabling financial institutions to address their products and services to homogeneous classes of customers. This paper approaches two of the most popular machine learning techniques, Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines, and describes how each of these perform in a segmentation process. First published online: 23 Sep 2013