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The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) as a chemical transport system is investigated using a suite of models in preparation for an airborne field campaign over the Western Pacific. Results show that the dynamical process of anticyclone eddy shedding in the upper troposphere rapidly transports convectively uplifted Asian boundary layer air masses to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Western Pacific. The models show that the transported air masses contain significantly enhanced aerosol loading and a complex chemical mixture of trace gases that are relevant to ozone chemistry. The chemical forecast models consistently predict the occurrence of the shedding events, but the predicted concentrations of transported trace gases and aerosols often differ between models. The airborne measurements to be obtained in the field campaign are expected to help reduce the model uncertainties. Furthermore, the large‐scale seasonal chemical structure of the monsoon system is obtained from modeled carbon monoxide, a tracer of the convective transport of pollutants, which provides a new perspective of the ASM circulation, complementing the dynamical characterization of the monsoon. Plain Language Summary: The Asian summer monsoon has been known as a weather system for centuries, but only in the recent decades has the system been recognized for its importance in atmospheric composition. Monsoon deep convection lofts near surface air to 15–17 km altitudes thus altering the chemical composition of the tropopause layer. The process also sends aerosols and chemically active trace gas species into the stratosphere where they affect climate through their impacts on ozone and aerosol radiative forcing. To understand the monsoon transport process and its impacts on climate system, a large airborne field campaign, the Asian summer monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project, was planned. This paper presents a set of results from precampaign model studies. These results serve as the hypotheses for the field investigation and provide guidance for its operational planning. Key Points: This model study is conducted in preparation for an airborne field campaign investigating the Asian monsoon transportResult shows that eastward eddy shedding of the anticyclone significantly alters upper tropospheric composition over the Western PacificCO seasonal distribution provides a chemical perspective of the monsoon system and sheds new light on monsoon dynamics and circulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As wind‐borne migration of insects is strongly influenced by atmospheric circulation and weather systems, the relationships between insect population abundance and meteorological conditions are substantial. The brown planthopper (BPH), Nilaparvata lugens (Stål), is one of the major wind‐borne insects hampering rice production in Asia, and its migration is significantly influenced by the Asian monsoon, a main component of the Asian climate system. However, the degree and mechanisms of the effects of monsoon on BPH migration have been little studied. In this paper, the effect of the Asian monsoon on the northward migration of BPH from the Indochina Peninsula to northern South China (NSC) was investigated based on the BPH light‐trap data and meteorological data for 39 years. The results show that the level of BPH migration in May could indicate the degree of annual pest outbreaks in NSC and that the southeast monsoon was more critical in this northward migration than the previously recognized southwest monsoon. The significance of the southeast monsoon stemmed from the strong effect of South China Sea subtropical high on BPH migration under a unique weather system distribution, the Polar low–Continental low–West Pacific subtropical high pattern. Furthermore, based on the key areas of migration obtained from the composite analysis, the multivariable linear regression prediction model could effectively predict the occurrence of BPH in NSC. These results indicate the importance of interactions between monsoons during BPH northward migration, which reflects the complex relationship between BPH migration and atmospheric motion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper draws on recent optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to evaluate the long-held assumption that dust accumulation rates in the Loess Plateau and the extent of active aeolian sand in the dunefields to the north have varied together over time, because both are controlled by the strength of the Asian monsoons and also possibly because the dunefields are proximal loess sources. The results show there is little evidence that high rates of loess accumulation coincided with well-dated episodes of extensive dune activity in the Mu Us, Otindag, and Horqin dunefields, at 11-8 ka and 1-0 ka. Explanations for the apparent lack of coupling include local variation in the trapping of dust and post-depositional preservation of the loess and dune sediments, in response to varying local environmental conditions. In addition, a substantial portion of the loess may be transported directly from source areas where dust emission has somewhat different climatic and geomorphic controls than aeolian sand activity within the dunefields. The results of this study cast doubt on the use of loess accumulation rate as a palaeoclimatic proxy at millennial timescale. The dunefield and loess stratigraphic records are interpreted as primarily recording changes in effective moisture at a local scale, but the timing of late Quaternary dune activity, along with a variety of other evidence, indicates that moisture changes in many of the drylands of northern China may not be in phase with precipitation in core regions of the Asian monsoons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall in Vietnam is strongly influenced by climate drivers which are caused by anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP) or geopotential height in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. This paper analyses the rainfall records at different sites in various regions of Vietnam to determine the influence of the three major climate drivers, the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation), IPO (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) and their interaction on the rainfall at each of these sites. A statistical technique called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to discuss and address the uncertainties problem in model and variable selection when fitting observed rainfall data with climate drivers' indices. The results show that the ENSO, IPO and IOD and their interaction overall have very minor roles in influencing the rainfall in Northern Vietnam but they have some influences on the rainfall in the central and southern parts of Vietnam. Furthermore, seasonality analysis shows the spring rainfall in Vietnam is strongly influenced by the ENSO, IOD and ENSO*IOD interaction, with ENSO*IOD interaction strongest in the north. The situation in summer is similar but the IOD is most dominant compared to the ENSO and ENSO*IOD interaction. In autumn, the IOD and ENSO influences on rainfall are weaker while the IPO has strong influence in the Central and Southern Vietnam and no climate driver has any influence in the north. And during winter, the IPO, ENSO and IPO*ENSO interaction are associated with rainfall variability across Vietnam while the IOD influence is insignificant. The results also confirm the previous studies on the teleconnection roles of SST in the Pacific and Indian Oceans on rainfall variability in Vietnam. Influence scale of climate drivers on spring rainfall at various sites in Vietnam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The simulation skill of the perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of HadGEM3‐GC3.05 on the mean climate pattern of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is evaluated in this study. The sensitivities of the model bias to the perturbed parameters are investigated based on metrics. The results show that the PPE mean (PPE‐20M) could effectively capture the general ASM precipitation and wind patterns, with a correlation coefficient of 0.78. PPE‐20M mainly shows positive precipitation biases over the tropical western Pacific, southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau, Indochina Peninsula, and South China and negative precipitation biases over the Indian continent and Bay of Bengal. The magnitude of the precipitation biases is more sensitive than its pattern to the variation of the perturbed parameters. Four parameters (ent_fac_dp, qlmin, ps_cloud‐ph, and psm) are found to be crucial for simulating the ASM precipitation intensity, and their combined effects are related to the simulated precipitation biases. Plain Language Summary: The simulation of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) has attracted much attention in recent decades. However, state‐of‐the‐art coupled models still show similar systematic biases when simulating monsoon precipitation from CMIP3 to CMIP6. Recently, a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) method has been applied in the development of HadGEM3‐GC3.05 with the aim of improving the overall simulation skill of the coupled model. The PPE can also be used to understand the related physical processes in the model simulations. Thus, in this study, we aim to evaluate the simulation skills of PPE on the mean climate distributions of ASM. Four parameters were found to be the most critical in the precipitation simulations, which could be potential tunable parameters to reduce the biases of precipitation intensity over the monsoon regions. This study provides possible pathways to reduce model bias that could benefit the model development community. Key Points: The perturbed parameter ensemble mean captures the climate pattern of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) but mainly overestimates precipitation over the western PacificFour parameters (ent_fac_dp, qlmin, ps_cloud‐ph, and psm) are crucial for simulating ASM precipitation in coupled runThe joint effect of these parameters, especially the deep entrainment amplitude, are dominant control for the bias in the western Pacific [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of the diurnal atmospheric circulation cycle around the eastern Indian subcontinent, leeward of the monsoon westerlies, on the hydroclimate of South Asia remains unknown. Here, we reveal that low‐level moist southerlies are greatly enhanced at night parallel to the coastline over the western Bay of Bengal (BoB), and then flow onto the Gangetic Plain enhancing onshore moisture flux and nocturnal precipitation over the Himalayas and the Meghalaya Plateau. This nocturnal surge is strongly controlled by the diurnal cycle of dynamic and thermodynamic effects around the subcontinent. At night, nocturnal westerly low‐level jets appear over the subcontinent. Strong low‐level southwesterly flow with a low‐level jet structure also appears parallel to the coastline over the western BoB, extending from the west of Sri Lanka. The low‐level westerlies from the subcontinent and the low‐level southwesterlies merge into a single strong southwesterly flow, forming the low‐level moist surge. Plain Language Summary: Nocturnal precipitation is a well‐known phenomenon around the Himalayas and the Meghalaya Plateau in South Asia in summer. Such precipitation is a major supply source for glaciers in the central–eastern Himalayas and the headwaters of major rivers such as the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. In this study, we show that low‐level moist southerlies are greatly enhanced at night parallel to the coastline over the western Bay of Bengal (BoB) and then flow onto the Gangetic Plain, enhancing moisture transport toward land and nocturnal precipitation in South Asia. Here, we refer to the phenomenon as the nocturnal southerly moist surge. This nocturnal surge is strongly affected by the diurnal cycle of the thermal and topographic effects of the Indian subcontinent. At night, a strong low‐level westerly jet appears above the nocturnal stable layer over the Indian subcontinent. Strong low‐level southwesterlies with a low‐level jet structure also appear over the western BoB, extending from the strait between the southernmost tip of the Indian subcontinent and Sri Lanka. The low‐level westerlies flowing from the subcontinent and the southwesterlies merge into a single strong southwesterly flow, forming the low‐level moist surge over the western BoB. Key Points: Nocturnal low‐level southerly moist surge occurs parallel to the western Bay of Bengal coastline and flows over the Gangetic PlainThe surge consists of strong low‐level westerlies from the Indian subcontinent and southwesterlies extending from the west of Sri LankaDynamic and thermodynamic effects of the Indian subcontinent likely play an important role in forming the nocturnal surge [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh receives most of its precipitation from June to September in the form of rainfall as a part of the Asian summer monsoon system. Bangladesh is a relatively flat region, surrounded by the southern Himalayas and Meghalaya Plateau in the north, Arakan Mountains in the east, and the Bay of Bengal (BOB) in the south. Although several studies have investigated the mechanisms that drive the Asian monsoon precipitation, very few studies have focused on the monsoon precipitation in Bangladesh. This study investigated the influence of the topography of the surrounding regions and sea surface temperature on the summer monsoon precipitation of Bangladesh and the surrounding regions. Using observed data, we showed that moisture convergence near the mountains contributes to the precipitation of Bangladesh, whereas the BOB acts as a source of moisture. A strong low‐level jet carries the moisture inland as the land–sea thermal contrast intensifies the wind circulation during the summer. Three differently forced simulations of the Euro‐Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change coupled climate model (CMCC CM2) were analysed to investigate the influence of the surrounding region's topography and sea surface temperature on the summer monsoon precipitation. The low‐resolution simulation showed no spatial variability of precipitation and dry bias due to the overly smooth topographical representation of mountains. The high‐resolution coupled simulation, with a better representation of topography, improved the moisture convergence at the foothills and precipitation bias. The high‐resolution prescribed sea surface temperature further improved the precipitation bias by intensifying the low‐level jet that transports moisture over Bangladesh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The monsoon development in the early rainy season in East Asia is analysed by the evolution of daily weather types (WTs). The WTs are classified by a k‐means clustering analysis based on 850 hPa winds from April 1 to July 31 in the 40‐year period of 1979–2018. Five WTs are identified, typifying the progression of weather regimes in the monsoonal evolution. WTs 1 and 2, with easterly winds in the South China Sea (SCS), occurs mostly in April and early May, corresponding to typical WTs before the SCS monsoon onset. In WT3, winds in the SCS turns westerly, and a rain band emerges in South China, extending east‐northeastward to the Pacific Ocean south of Japan, which signifies the May–June Mei‐yu in South China. Then, with the rain band moved to Yangtze River Valley (YRV) in WT4, this WT corresponds to the June–July Mei‐Yu in central and eastern China along the YRV. Finally, WT5 occurs more frequently towards the end of July, and corresponds to the post‐Mei‐Yu WT, indicating the ending of the early summer rainfall season in East Asia. The evolution of the WTs is gradual but intermittent, representing the weather‐within‐climate information. Each WT likely persists to itself. But WT1 and WT2 also progress to each other. The long persistence of WT3 and WT4 up to several weeks indicates the quasi‐stationary Mei‐Yu in South China and the YRV, respectively. The year‐to‐year variability of the WTs is also evident in the WTs. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on the precipitation in the East Asian region is analysed for three types of ENSO: Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific, and mixed El Niño and La Niña. The seasonal mean precipitation anomalies can be interpreted by the frequencies of the daily WTs under different ENSO conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal hypoxia—harmfully low levels of oxygen—is a mounting problem that jeopardizes coastal ecosystems and economies. The northern Indian Ocean is particularly susceptible due to human‐induced impacts, vast naturally occurring oxygen minimum zones, and strong variability associated with the seasonal monsoons and interannual Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We assess how natural factors influence the risk of coastal hypoxia by combining a large set of oxygen measurements with satellite observations to examine how the IOD amplifies or suppresses seasonal hypoxia tied to the Asian Monsoon. We show that on both seasonal and interannual timescales hypoxia is controlled by wind‐ and coastal Kelvin wave‐driven upwelling of oxygen‐poor waters onto the continental shelf and reinforcing biological feedbacks (increased subsurface oxygen demand). Seasonally, the risk of hypoxia is highest in the western Arabian Sea in summer/fall (71% probability of hypoxia). Major year‐to‐year impacts attributed to the IOD occur during positive phases along the eastern Bay of Bengal (EBoB), where the risk of coastal hypoxia increases from moderate to high in summer/fall (21%–46%) and winter/spring (31%–42%), and along the eastern Arabian Sea (i.e., India, Pakistan) where the risk drops from high to moderate in summer/fall (53%–34%). Strong effects are also seen in the EBoB during negative IOD phases, when the risk reduces from moderate to low year‐round (∼25% to ∼5%). This basin‐scale mapping of hypoxic risk is key to aid national and international efforts that monitor, forecast, and mitigate the impacts of hypoxia on coastal ecosystems and ecosystem services. Plain Language Summary: Coastal "dead zones," with vanishingly low oxygen levels, stress marine organisms, compress their habitats, threaten the sustainability of fisheries, and can lead to mass mortality of marine life. The northern Indian Ocean is particularly vulnerable due to natural physical processes that bring oxygen‐poor water onto the continental shelf from vast offshore regions of low‐oxygen, and biological processes that can intensify coastal dead zones. Alongside these natural processes, coastal dead zones in the Indian Ocean are also influenced by human activity, such as fertilizer use and waste water management. In this study we use a large set of observations in the northern Indian Ocean to quantify how natural processes trigger coastal dead zones seasonally, and how they increase or decrease the risk of coastal dead zones from year‐to‐year. This information, on where and when coastal dead zones are most likely to occur, is key to anticipate and mitigate impacts on ecosystems and economies. Key Points: Regions at higher risk of coastal hypoxia in the northern Indian Ocean are identified using coastal oxygen observationsThe Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can amplify or suppress the seasonal risk of hypoxia by modulating coastal upwelling/downwellingThe risk is most amplified during positive IOD phases along the coast of the eastern Bay of Bengal [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) projection results to different models and the detection and tracking scheme used is well established. In this study, future climate projections of TC activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) are assessed with a model‐ and basin‐independent detection and tracking scheme. The scheme is applied to selected models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments forced under the historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) conditions. Most models underestimated the frequency of early season (April–June) TCs and contained genesis biases equatorward of ~7.5°N in comparison to the historical records. TC tracks detected in reanalysis and model data were input to a clustering algorithm simultaneously, with two clusters in the Arabian Sea and two in the Bay of Bengal (k = 4). Projection results indicated a slight decrease of overall TC genesis frequency in the NIO, with an increase of TC genesis frequency in the Arabian Sea (30–64%) and a decrease in the Bay of Bengal (22–43%), consistent between clusters in each of these sub‐regions. These changes were largely due to changes in the pre‐monsoon season (April–June) where Bay of Bengal TCs significantly decreased, consistent with changes in vertical ascent. Northern Arabian Sea TCs significantly increased during the pre‐monsoon season, consistent with changes in vertical wind shear and relative humidity. There was a projected increase of TC frequency in the post‐monsoon season (October–December), consistent with changes in relative humidity and vertical ascent, although not all clusters followed this trend; noting a different response in the southern Bay of Bengal. In turn, these projections caused changes to the climate averaged TC track density, including a decrease (up to 2 TCs per decade) affecting the eastern coast of India and a small increase (up to 0.5 TCs per decade) affecting eastern Africa, Oman and Yemen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early summer 2020, the Meiyu‐Baiu rainfall was markedly enhanced, triggering devastating floods in Japan and central China. We examined the underlying processes using a climate model and analysis. The enhanced Meiyu‐Baiu rainfall was reasonably predicted by the climate model initialized at the end of April. The sensitivity experiment indicated that Indian Ocean (IO) warming enhanced the Meiyu‐Baiu rainfall. Moreover, we found that the warm IO condition can be traced back to the super Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in 2019. The IO warmth was influenced by successive processes: record strong downwelling Rossby waves excited by the IOD and tripole sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical IO‐western Pacific, their arrival to the southwestern IO in spring, and associated modulation of monsoon flow. The results suggest that the seasonal predictability of the Meiyu‐Baiu rainfall in 2020 originated from the super IOD. Plain Language Summary: In early summer 2020, Japan and central China suffered from serious floods due to torrential rainfall associated with the intensified Meiyu‐Baiu front, which extends from central China to southern Japan. The results of climate model simulations indicated that a warm condition of the Indian Ocean (IO) was an underlying condition for the enhanced rainfall. We found that the warm IO condition can be traced back to the strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) episode in 2019, which featured a pair of colder‐than‐normal and warmer‐than‐normal ocean temperatures west of the Sumatra coast and in the western IO, respectively. This IOD contributed to the IO warming in the following seasons through oceanic dynamics and monsoon modulation. Key Points: The markedly enhanced rainfall in the Meiyu‐Baiu frontal zone in early summer 2020 was associated with the warm IO conditionThe warm IO condition can be traced back to the super IOD event in 2019Ocean dynamics and associated modulation of monsoon flow in the IO sector facilitated IO warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) features large seasonal variations in its intensity and position and exerts profound influences on local precipitation. In this study, we found the amplified seasonality of the EAWJ in response to the mid‐Holocene forcing. Compared with the preindustrial, the summer EAWJ significantly weakens by 20 ± 4% and shifts northward by 4 ± 2° during the mid‐Holocene, while the winter EAWJ slightly strengthens by less than 5%. Two different mechanisms are proposed to explain the significant summer weakening. From the perspective of stationary waves, the deficient precipitation over the tropical northwest Pacific produces the anomalous cyclonic circulations in the upper troposphere. The easterly winds north of the cyclone act to decelerate the EAWJ. In terms of transient processes, the mid‐Holocene reduced midlatitude meridional temperature gradient suppresses the synoptic‐scale disturbances through changes in the atmospheric baroclinicity. The subsequent decrease in kinetic energy transformation from transient eddies to the mean flow contributes to the weakening of the EAWJ. The reduction of the meridional temperature gradient is related to the subtropical cooling, which is possibly caused by the excessive monsoon rainfall and enhanced convection over East and South Asia. Both mechanisms involve the influence of low‐latitude precipitation on the midlatitude jet stream behavior, which deserves more attention in future studies of the jet stream dynamics. Key Points: The seasonality of the EAWJ is amplified from the preindustrial to the mid‐Holocene primarily due to changes in summerTwo different mechanisms are proposed for the significant weakening and northward shift of the mid‐Holocene summer EAWJLow‐latitude precipitation processes are vital for midlatitude circulation changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) variations have been widely interpreted as recording the evolution of the Asian Monsoon. However, calibration of δ18O to monsoon intensity has not yet been carried out in a quantitative way. To understand the climatic significance of δ18O, we measured monthly precipitation δ18O data at Heshang Cave, China, where speleothem δ18O records were previously obtained. We examined the influence of local climate and large‐scale atmospheric circulation on the δ18O by correlating to local meteorological data and various monsoon indices. We find neither a significant amount effect nor temperature effect, and therefore suggest that local climate is not the primary driver of δ18O variability. On seasonal timescales, monthly δ18O is significantly correlated to all monsoon indices, especially the Indian Monsoon (IM) and Western North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) indices, proving δ18O responds dominantly to the tropical monsoon circulation. On interannual timescales, there are significant negative correlations between annual δ18O and the WNPM and IM monsoon indices defined by zonal winds, reflecting the impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on δ18O. Similar correlations between δ18O and precipitation amount in these monsoon regions lend further support to this finding. As the driving force of seasonal and interannual monsoon changes can be compared to variations on orbital and suborbital scales, respectively, we argue that speleothem δ18O in southern China is influenced by both external forcing and internal variability. Solar radiation plays an indispensable role on the orbital and seasonal scale δ18O variations, whereas ocean–atmosphere interactions are dominant on suborbital timescales. Key Points: Local climate conditions are not the main factor determining the precipitation oxygen isotopes in east ChinaEast Asian precipitation δ18O reflects tropical monsoons on seasonal timescales and links to air–sea interactions on interannual timescalesSolar insolation dominates speleothem δ18O on orbital timescales, and internal variability influences speleothem δ18O on suborbital timescales [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mineral dust exerts great influence on modern climate. Eolian deposits reveal that atmospheric dust concentration is larger during the Last Glacial Maximum, especially over Asia. However, the larger forcing of dust on Asian climate is still not fully explored. In this study, climate model experiments are conducted to evaluate the direct radiative effect on East Asian monsoon. The results show that the radiative forcing of dust, amplified by snow albedo feedback over high‐latitude Eurasia, produces a wave‐like pattern in westerlies and weakens the monsoon southerly winds over northern China. Dust over expanded Last Glacial Maximum sources (northern Central Asia and northeastern Russia) is responsible for this perturbation of the westerlies; the absence of these dust sources at present explains why such impacts on circulations are not simulated for modern conditions. The dust‐induced anomalies in southerly wind speed and precipitation over northern China reach 29% and 41% of the glacial‐induced changes, respectively. Key Points: Radiative effect of dust weakens the East Asian monsoon during LGM, which is not obvious at presentDust‐induced changes in monsoon winds and precipitation are comparable with glacial‐induced onesSnow‐albedo feedback initialed by high‐latitude dust exerts significant perturbations on the westerlies and monsoon [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the linkage between the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and the South Asian summer monsoon onset through spatiotemporal wave‐filtering and composite analyses of observational data sets during 1979–2016. We identify two major factors in determining the summer monsoon onset timing: the background conditions associated with seasonal transitions and the intraseasonal variations associated with an active MJO. The background conditions undergo sharp seasonal transition over the western Indian Ocean two to three pentads before the onset dates, while a typical monsoon onset is often associated with the arrival of the wet phase of the tropical MJO over the Indian Ocean, likely due to the promotion by the MJO‐initiated eastward propagating westerly wind anomaly. Conversely, the atmospheric circulation associated with the leading dry phase of a strong MJO during the climatological mean onset dates may lead to a delayed monsoon onset. Plain Language Summary: The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variabilities in the tropical atmosphere, while the Asian summer monsoon represents one of the most significant transitions in the large‐scale atmospheric and oceanic circulations in the Indo‐Pacific regions and beyond. This study examines the linkage between MJO and the South Asian summer monsoon onset through composite analysis of decades of observational data sets along with a global space‐time wave‐filtering technique. We identify two major factors in determining the summer monsoon onset timing: the background conditions associated with seasonal transitions and the intraseasonal variations associated with an active MJO. The onset of the Indian summer monsoon is often associated with the arrival of the wet phase of the tropical MJO over the Indian Ocean, while a delayed monsoon onset is likely caused by the dry phase of a strong MJO that suppresses background changes associated with seasonal transition during the climatological mean onset dates. Key Points: Seasonal transition of background conditions and the propagating MJO circulations are key factors in the monsoon onset timing over IndiaThe onset of the Indian summer monsoon is often associated with the arrival of the wet phase of the tropical MJO over the Indian OceanThe delayed monsoon onset is likely caused by the dry phase of a strong MJO that suppresses background changes during the climatological mean onset dates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A multiproxy study of the climatic impact after the 1815 Tambora eruption in China found substantial discrepancies among the historical documents, proxy reconstructions, and model simulations. To understand whether the discrepancies are associated with regional‐scale heterogeneous hydroclimate responses or the specialty of an individual volcanic event, we revisit the Asian monsoon hydroclimate response to volcanic eruptions over the past five centuries using an independent warm season precipitation reconstruction. The composite results show a bipolar pattern of increased precipitation over the Yangtze‐Huaihe River valley and decreased precipitation over South China after the tropical eruptions, which agree with the instrumental observations of the El Chichón and Pinatubo eruptions. We could therefore reject the latter possibility and suggest that an overall drying response in the tree‐ring‐based Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas after tropical volcanic perturbations is an oversimplified conclusion. The hydroclimate responses suggest a combined influence of weakened East Asian and South Asian summer monsoons and an intensified East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream during its southward migration. Proxy reconstructions may be biased due to the sampling coverage and data sensitivities, and a combined analysis using different proxies is critical to form a balanced view of the important relationship between volcanic radiative perturbation and monsoon hydroclimate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Anthropogenic aerosols are a major factor contributing to human‐induced climate change, particularly over the densely populated Asian monsoon region. Understanding the physical processes controlling the aerosol‐induced changes in monsoon rainfall is essential for reducing the uncertainties in the future projections of the hydrological cycle. Here we use multiple coupled and atmospheric general circulation models to explore the physical mechanisms for the aerosol‐driven monsoon changes on different time scales. We show that anthropogenic aerosols induce an overall reduction in monsoon rainfall and circulation, which can be largely explained by the fast adjustments over land north of 20∘N. This fast response occurs before changes in sea surface temperature (SST), largely driven by aerosol‐cloud interactions. However, aerosol‐induced SST feedbacks (slow response) cause substantial changes in the monsoon meridional circulation over the oceanic regions. Both the land‐ocean asymmetry and meridional temperature gradient are key factors in determining the overall monsoon circulation response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT We show evidence for the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO) on Myanmar's monsoonal hydroclimate using both instrumental and 20th century reanalysis data, and a tree-ring width chronology from Myanmar's central Dry Zone. The 'regime shifts' identified in the instrumental PDO for the past century are clearly evident in the Myanmar teak. The teak record and PDO index correlate most significantly and positively during December-May, at r = 0.41 (0.002, n = 109). We generated composite climate anomalies for southern Asia and adjacent ocean areas during negative and positive PDO phases and above/below average teak growth for the May-September wet monsoon season. They show that negative (positive) PDO phases correspond to dry (wet) conditions, due to reduced (enhanced) moisture flux into central Myanmar. Multitaper Method ( MTM) and Singular Spectrum Analysis ( SSA) spectral analyses reveal considerable multidecadal variability over the past several centuries of the teak chronology, consistent with the PDO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eocene palynological samples from 37 widely distributed sites across China were analysed using co-existence approach to determine trends in space and time for seven palaeoclimate variables: Mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean temperature of the warmest month, mean temperature of the coldest month, mean annual range of temperature, mean maximum monthly precipitation and mean minimum monthly precipitation. Present day distributions and observed climates within China of the nearest living relatives of the fossil forms were used to find the range of a given variable in which a maximum number of taxa can coexist. Isotherm and isohyet maps for the early, middle and late Eocene were constructed. These illustrate regional changing patterns in thermal and precipitational gradients that may be interpreted as the beginnings of the modern Asian Monsoon system, and suggest that the uplift of parts of the Tibetan Plateau appear to have taken place by the middle to late Eocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world's hydrological cycle is believed to intensify with global warming, yet current climate models have only a limited ability to assess moisture responses at regional scales. Tree-ring records are a valuable source of information for understanding long-term, regional-scale moisture changes, particularly for large regions such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where the observational data are short and sparse. Here, we present a new ring-width chronology developed from Qilian Juniper ( Sabina przewalskii) wood at two sites on the northeastern TP. This chronology, combined with others from the same region, demonstrates that tree growth anomalies are linked to regional late spring to early summer moisture availability. Although late monsoon season precipitation in the study area decreased during recent decades, tree growth continued to increase due to persistent moisture availability in the early monsoon season. Comparison with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) indicates that early (late) monsoon season precipitation is closely related to tropical Pacific (Indian Ocean) SSTs, suggesting a possible seasonal shift in the dominant moisture source area for monsoonal precipitation over the northeastern TP. It is further shown that there is a very high degree of coherency regarding low-frequency tree growth anomalies over the northeastern TP during the last six centuries. The most prominent drought epoch occurred during ca. 1450–1500, which may have been caused by a significant decrease in the thermal gradient between the Eurasian continent and the tropical oceans. A persistent tree growth increase since the 1880s is coincident with global warming, suggesting an intensified early monsoon season moisture regime in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]