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In recent years, more and more record-breaking extreme weather/climate events have been reported from the Asian monsoon region, which have caused tremendous loss of property and lives. In this paper, we analyzed the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability during the Holocene and evaluated future climate extremes in monsoonal China from a paleoclimatic view. We found a significant regime transition to more chaotic fluctuations, with enhanced decadal variability of the ASM since 6.6 ka BP. We suggested the gradual intensification of ENSO was responsible for enhancing the ASM variability since the late mid-Holocene. If the observed relationship of monsoon mean intensity, ENSO and decadal variability of the ASM in the past 11.2 ka continue to exist, enhanced decadal variability of ASM in the future warming world will be expected. As a result, the intensification of daily precipitation extremes, superimposed on enhanced decadal variability of ASM, might make the record-breaking extremes more frequent in the future, increasing the risk of climate-related disasters in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfire activity is an important activity in evolution of vegetation and carbon cycling. Whether wet weather will suppress wildfire or promote them by increasing fuel reserves during the Holocene is not clear. We obtained a record of black carbon from a sediment core spanning the last 14.8 kyr from Gonghai Lake, in North China. There is a close relationship between the timing of wildfire activity and vegetation development driven by the East Asian summer monsoon intensity. On a millennial timescales, wet climatic conditions provide a sufficient biofuels reserve, in the same period wildfire increase; thus, the regional potential biofuels reserve is shown to be an important controlling of regional wildfire activity in the monsoon region of China, under natural conditions. We infer that with the strengthening of Asian summer monsoon caused by global warming, the wildfire carbon emission in Asian monsoon region may increase in the future. Plain Language Summary: Much attention has been paid to the response of wildfire activity to climate change. Understanding the past history of wildfires and their triggering factors may help us to mitigate the effects of future wildfires. Our study of the black carbon record of the sediments from an alpine lake (Gonghai Lake) in North China indicates that the level of biofuels (mainly woody vegetation) was the main control on the intensity of wildfire on a millennial timescales over the past ∼14,800 yr. When the climate was wetter, more biofuels were available as a result of increased biomass storage, wildfires were more intense with a relatively stable ignition probability. So, climate trends that favor vegetation development will lead to a higher intensity of wildfire and carbon emission in the Asian monsoon region in the future, with the strengthening of Asian summer monsoon caused by global warming. Key Points: The variation of wildfire and summer monsoon is consistent on the millennial scale, wet climate drives wildfire enhancingBiofuels reserve has controlled wildfire for the Holocene in Asian summer monsoon regionStronger monsoons caused by global warming would increase wildfire carbon emission [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we present, to date, the highest‐resolved (~5 years) and most precisely dated Holocene monsoon climate reconstruction for the western Chinese Loess Plateau based on five replicated stalagmite δ18O records from Wuya Cave, eastern Gansu, China. Our record suggests the wettest period occurred between 10,500 and 6,600 a BP in this region. After this period, the amplitude of Asian summer monsoon decadal‐scale variability progressively increased likely in response to increasing ENSO frequency since the middle Holocene. Our study reveals similar asymmetric centennial‐scale double‐plunging structures of the 8.2, 5.5, and 2.8 ka events in the western Chinese Loess Plateau, suggesting a possible role of solar activity whose impact was amplified around 8.2 ka BP by the meltwater flood. In contrast, the 4.2 ka event exhibit gradually declining monsoon rainfall with centennial‐ to decadal‐scale fluctuations. Key Points: A 5 year‐resolved Holocene Asian summer monsoon record was reconstructed for the western Loess Plateau based on speleothemsThe wettest period occurred between 10,500 and 6,600 a BP, after that, the amplitude of decadal‐scale monsoon variability increasedSimilar structures were observed during the 8.2, 5.5, and 2.8 ka weak monsoon events, which are different from the 4.2 ka event [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]