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Knowledge of how a population of cancerous cells progress through the cell cycle is vital if the population is to be treated effectively, as treatment outcome is dependent on the phase distributions of the population. Estimates on the phase distribution may be obtained experimentally however the errors present in these estimates may effect treatment efficacy and planning. If mathematical models are to be used to make accurate, quantitative predictions concerning treatments, whose efficacy is phase dependent, knowledge of the phase distribution is crucial. In this paper it is shown that two different transition rates at the - checkpoint provide a good fit to a growth curve obtained experimentally. However, the different transition functions predict a different phase distribution for the population, but both lying within the bounds of experimental error. Since treatment outcome is effected by the phase distribution of the population this difference may be critical in treatment planning. Using an age-structured population balance approach the cell cycle is modelled with particular emphasis on the - checkpoint. By considering the probability of cells transitioning at the - checkpoint, different transition functions are obtained. A suitable finite difference scheme for the numerical simulation of the model is derived and shown to be stable. The model is then fitted using the different probability transition functions to experimental data and the effects of the different probability transition functions on the model's results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In genetic association studies, tests for Hardy-Weinberg proportions are often employed as a quality control checking procedure. Missing genotypes are typically discarded prior to testing. In this paper we show that inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions can be biased when missing values are discarded. We propose to use multiple imputation of missing values in order to improve inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions. For imputation we employ a multinomial logit model that uses information from allele intensities and/or neighbouring markers. Analysis of an empirical data set of single nucleotide polymorphisms possibly related to colon cancer reveals that missing genotypes are not missing completely at random. Deviation from Hardy-Weinberg proportions is mostly due to a lack of heterozygotes. Inbreeding coefficients estimated by multiple imputation of the missings are typically lowered with respect to inbreeding coefficients estimated by discarding the missings. Accounting for missings by multiple imputation qualitatively changed the results of 10 to 17% of the statistical tests performed. Estimates of inbreeding coefficients obtained by multiple imputation showed high correlation with estimates obtained by single imputation using an external reference panel. Our conclusion is that imputation of missing data leads to improved statistical inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In microarray data analysis, we are often required to combine several dependent partial test results. To overcome this, many suggestions have been made in previous literature; Tippett’s test and Fisher’s omnibus test are most popular. Both tests have known null distributions when the partial tests are independent. However, for dependent tests, their (even, asymptotic) null distributions are unknown and additional numerical procedures are required. In this paper, we revisited Stouffer’s test based on z-scores and showed its advantage over the two aforementioned methods in the analysis of large-scale microarray data. The combined statistic in Stouffer’s test has a normal distribution with mean 0 from the normality of the z-scores. Its variance can be estimated from the scores of genes in the experiment without an additional numerical procedure. We numerically compared the errors of Stouffer’s test and the two p-value based methods, Tippett’s test and Fisher’s omnibus test. We also analyzed our microarray data to find differentially expressed genes by non-genotoxic and genotoxic carcinogen compounds. Both numerical study and the real application showed that Stouffer’s test performed better than Tippett’s method and Fisher’s omnibus method with additional permutation steps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a thriving field that plays an important role in medical imaging analysis, biological and neuroscience research and practice. This manuscript gives a didactic introduction to the statistical analysis of fMRI data using the R project, along with the relevant R code. The goal is to give statisticians who would like to pursue research in this area a quick tutorial for programming with fMRI data. References of relevant packages and papers are provided for those interested in more advanced analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disease module is a group of molecular components that interact intensively in the disease specific biological network. Since the connectivity and activity of disease modules may shed light on the molecular mechanisms of pathogenesis and disease progression, their identification becomes one of the most important challenges in network medicine, an emerging paradigm to study complex human disease. This paper proposes a novel algorithm, DiME (Disease Module Extraction), to identify putative disease modules from biological networks. We have developed novel heuristics to optimise Community Extraction, a module criterion originally proposed for social network analysis, to extract topological core modules from biological networks as putative disease modules. In addition, we have incorporated a statistical significance measure, B-score, to evaluate the quality of extracted modules. As an application to complex diseases, we have employed DiME to investigate the molecular mechanisms that underpin the progression of glioma, the most common type of brain tumour. We have built low (grade II) - and high (GBM) - grade glioma co-expression networks from three independent datasets and then applied DiME to extract potential disease modules from both networks for comparison. Examination of the interconnectivity of the identified modules have revealed changes in topology and module activity (expression) between low- and high- grade tumours, which are characteristic of the major shifts in the constitution and physiology of tumour cells during glioma progression. Our results suggest that transcription factors E2F4, AR and ETS1 are potential key regulators in tumour progression. Our DiME compiled software, R/C++ source code, sample data and a tutorial are available at http://www.cs.bham.ac.uk/~szh/DiME. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing evidence has indicated that long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are implicated in and associated with many complex human diseases. Despite of the accumulation of lncRNA-disease associations, only a few studies had studied the roles of these associations in pathogenesis. In this paper, we investigated lncRNA-disease associations from a network view to understand the contribution of these lncRNAs to complex diseases. Specifically, we studied both the properties of the diseases in which the lncRNAs were implicated, and that of the lncRNAs associated with complex diseases. Regarding the fact that protein coding genes and lncRNAs are involved in human diseases, we constructed a coding-non-coding gene-disease bipartite network based on known associations between diseases and disease-causing genes. We then applied a propagation algorithm to uncover the hidden lncRNA-disease associations in this network. The algorithm was evaluated by leave-one-out cross validation on 103 diseases in which at least two genes were known to be involved, and achieved an AUC of 0.7881. Our algorithm successfully predicted 768 potential lncRNA-disease associations between 66 lncRNAs and 193 diseases. Furthermore, our results for Alzheimer's disease, pancreatic cancer, and gastric cancer were verified by other independent studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

No matching vaccine is immediately available when a novel influenza strain breaks out. Several nonvaccine-related strategies must be employed to control an influenza epidemic, including antiviral treatment, patient isolation, and immigration detection. This paper presents the development and application of two regional dynamic models of influenza with Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to determine the optimal control strategies for an epidemic and the corresponding minimum antiviral stockpiles. Antiviral treatment was found to be the most effective measure to control new influenza outbreaks. In the case of inadequate antiviral resources, the preferred approach was the centralized use of antiviral resources in the early stage of the epidemic. Immigration detection was the least cost-effective; however, when used in combination with the other measures, it may play a larger role. The reasonable mix of the three control measures could reduce the number of clinical cases substantially, to achieve the optimal control of new influenza. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obesity is an important and intractable public health problem. In addition to the well-known risk factors of behavior, diet, and genetics, gut microbial communities were recently identified as another possible source of risk and a potential therapeutic target. However, human and animal-model studies have yielded conflicting results about the precise nature of associations between microbiome composition and obesity. In this paper, we use publicly available data from the Human Microbiome Project (HMP) and MetaHIT, both surveys of healthy adults that include obese individuals, plus two smaller studies that specifically examined lean versus obese adults. We find that inter-study variability in the taxonomic composition of stool microbiomes far exceeds differences between lean and obese individuals within studies. Our analyses further reveal a high degree of variability in stool microbiome composition and diversity across individuals. While we confirm the previously published small, but statistically significant, differences in phylum-level taxonomic composition between lean and obese individuals in several cohorts, we find no association between BMI and taxonomic composition of stool microbiomes in the larger HMP and MetaHIT datasets. We explore a range of different statistical techniques and show that this result is robust to the choice of methodology. Differences between studies are likely due to a combination of technical and clinical factors. We conclude that there is no simple taxonomic signature of obesity in the microbiota of the human gut. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sudden cardiac death is often caused by cardiac arrhythmias. Recently, special attention has been given to a certain arrhythmogenic condition, the long-QT syndrome, which occurs as a result of genetic mutations or drug toxicity. The underlying mechanisms of arrhythmias, caused by the long-QT syndrome, are not fully understood. However, arrhythmias are often connected to special excitations of cardiac cells, called early afterdepolarizations (EADs), which are depolarizations during the repolarizing phase of the action potential. So far, EADs have been studied mainly in isolated cardiac cells. However, the question on how EADs at the single-cell level can result in fibrillation at the tissue level, especially in human cell models, has not been widely studied yet. In this paper, we study wave patterns that result from single-cell EAD dynamics in a mathematical model for human ventricular cardiac tissue. We induce EADs by modeling experimental conditions which have been shown to evoke EADs at a single-cell level: by an increase of L-type Ca currents and a decrease of the delayed rectifier potassium currents. We show that, at the tissue level and depending on these parameters, three types of abnormal wave patterns emerge. We classify them into two types of spiral fibrillation and one type of oscillatory dynamics. Moreover, we find that the emergent wave patterns can be driven by calcium or sodium currents and we find phase waves in the oscillatory excitation regime. From our simulations we predict that arrhythmias caused by EADs can occur during normal wave propagation and do not require tissue heterogeneities. Experimental verification of our results is possible for experiments at the cell-culture level, where EADs can be induced by an increase of the L-type calcium conductance and by the application of I blockers, and the properties of the emergent patterns can be studied by optical mapping of the voltage and calcium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The clinical serial interval of an infectious disease is the time between date of symptom onset in an index case and the date of symptom onset in one of its secondary cases. It is a quantity which is commonly collected during a pandemic and is of fundamental importance to public health policy and mathematical modelling. In this paper we present a novel method for calculating the serial interval distribution for a Markovian model of household transmission dynamics. This allows the use of Bayesian MCMC methods, with explicit evaluation of the likelihood, to fit to serial interval data and infer parameters of the underlying model. We use simulated and real data to verify the accuracy of our methodology and illustrate the importance of accounting for household size. The output of our approach can be used to produce posterior distributions of population level epidemic characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in next-generation sequencing technologies have enabled the identification of multiple rare single nucleotide polymorphisms involved in diseases or traits. Several strategies for identifying rare variants that contribute to disease susceptibility have recently been proposed. An important feature of many of these statistical methods is the pooling or collapsing of multiple rare single nucleotide variants to achieve a reasonably high frequency and effect. However, if the pooled rare variants are associated with the trait in different directions, then the pooling may weaken the signal, thereby reducing its statistical power. In the present paper, we propose a backward support vector machine (BSVM)-based variant selection procedure to identify informative disease-associated rare variants. In the selection procedure, the rare variants are weighted and collapsed according to their positive or negative associations with the disease, which may be associated with common variants and rare variants with protective, deleterious, or neutral effects. This nonparametric variant selection procedure is able to account for confounding factors and can also be adopted in other regression frameworks. The results of a simulation study and a data example show that the proposed BSVM approach is more powerful than four other approaches under the considered scenarios, while maintaining valid type I errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we use a hybrid multiscale mathematical model that incorporates both individual cell behaviour through the cell-cycle and the effects of the changing microenvironment through oxygen dynamics to study the multiple effects of radiation therapy. The oxygenation status of the cells is considered as one of the important prognostic markers for determining radiation therapy, as hypoxic cells are less radiosensitive. Another factor that critically affects radiation sensitivity is cell-cycle regulation. The effects of radiation therapy are included in the model using a modified linear quadratic model for the radiation damage, incorporating the effects of hypoxia and cell-cycle in determining the cell-cycle phase-specific radiosensitivity. Furthermore, after irradiation, an individual cell's cell-cycle dynamics are intrinsically modified through the activation of pathways responsible for repair mechanisms, often resulting in a delay/arrest in the cell-cycle. The model is then used to study various combinations of multiple doses of cell-cycle dependent chemotherapies and radiation therapy, as radiation may work better by the partial synchronisation of cells in the most radiosensitive phase of the cell-cycle. Moreover, using this multi-scale model, we investigate the optimum sequencing and scheduling of these multi-modality treatments, and the impact of internal and external heterogeneity on the spatio-temporal patterning of the distribution of tumour cells and their response to different treatment schedules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Photographs of mistletoe (Viscum album L.) berries taken by a permanently fixed camera during their development in autumn were subjected to an outline shape analysis by fitting path curves using a mathematical algorithm from projective geometry. During growth and maturation processes the shape of mistletoe berries can be described by a set of such path curves, making it possible to extract changes of shape using one parameter called Lambda. Lambda describes the outline shape of a path curve. Here we present methods and software to capture and measure these changes of form over time. The present paper describes the software used to automatize a number of tasks including contour recognition, optimization of fitting the contour via hill-climbing, derivation of the path curves, computation of Lambda and blinding the pictures for the operator. The validity of the program is demonstrated by results from three independent measurements showing circadian rhythm in mistletoe berries. The program is available as open source and will be applied in a project to analyze the chronobiology of shape in mistletoe berries and the buds of their host trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We establish a mathematical framework for studying immune interactions with Shigella, a bacteria that kills over one million people worldwide every year. The long-term goal of this novel approach is to inform Shigella vaccine design by elucidating which immune components and bacterial targets are crucial for establishing Shigella immunity. Our delay differential equation model focuses on antibody and B cell responses directed against antigens like lipopolysaccharide in Shigella’s outer membrane. We find that antibody-based vaccines targeting only surface antigens cannot elicit sufficient immunity for protection. Additional boosting prior to infection would require a four-orders-of-magnitude increase in antibodies to sufficiently prevent epithelial invasion. However, boosting anti-LPS B memory can confer protection, which suggests these cells may correlate with immunity. We see that IgA antibodies are slightly more effective per molecule than IgG, but more total IgA is required due to spatial functionality. An extension of the model reveals that targeting both LPS and epithelial entry proteins is a promising avenue to advance vaccine development. This paper underscores the importance of multifaceted immune targeting in creating an effective Shigella vaccine. It introduces mathematical models to the Shigella vaccine development effort and lays a foundation for joint theoretical/experimental/clinical approaches to Shigella vaccine design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To facilitate analysis and understanding of biological systems, large-scale data are often integrated into models using a variety of mathematical and computational approaches. Such models describe the dynamics of the biological system and can be used to study the changes in the state of the system over time. For many model classes, such as discrete or continuous dynamical systems, there exist appropriate frameworks and tools for analyzing system dynamics. However, the heterogeneous information that encodes and bridges molecular and cellular dynamics, inherent to fine-grained molecular simulation models, presents significant challenges to the study of system dynamics. In this paper, we present an algorithmic information theory based approach for the analysis and interpretation of the dynamics of such executable models of biological systems. We apply a normalized compression distance (NCD) analysis to the state representations of a model that simulates the immune decision making and immune cell behavior. We show that this analysis successfully captures the essential information in the dynamics of the system, which results from a variety of events including proliferation, differentiation, or perturbations such as gene knock-outs. We demonstrate that this approach can be used for the analysis of executable models, regardless of the modeling framework, and for making experimentally quantifiable predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent focus on earlier detection of pathogen introduction in human and animal populations has led to the development of surveillance systems based on automated monitoring of health data. Real- or near real-time monitoring of pre-diagnostic data requires automated classification of records into syndromes–syndromic surveillance–using algorithms that incorporate medical knowledge in a reliable and efficient way, while remaining comprehensible to end users. Methods: This paper describes the application of two of machine learning (Naïve Bayes and Decision Trees) and rule-based methods to extract syndromic information from laboratory test requests submitted to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory. Results: High performance (F1-macro = 0.9995) was achieved through the use of a rule-based syndrome classifier, based on rule induction followed by manual modification during the construction phase, which also resulted in clear interpretability of the resulting classification process. An unmodified rule induction algorithm achieved an F1-micro score of 0.979 though this fell to 0.677 when performance for individual classes was averaged in an unweighted manner (F1-macro), due to the fact that the algorithm failed to learn 3 of the 16 classes from the training set. Decision Trees showed equal interpretability to the rule-based approaches, but achieved an F1-micro score of 0.923 (falling to 0.311 when classes are given equal weight). A Naïve Bayes classifier learned all classes and achieved high performance (F1-micro = 0.994 and F1-macro = .955), however the classification process is not transparent to the domain experts. Conclusion: The use of a manually customised rule set allowed for the development of a system for classification of laboratory tests into syndromic groups with very high performance, and high interpretability by the domain experts. Further research is required to develop internal validation rules in order to establish automated methods to update model rules without user input. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Magnetic stimulation is a standard tool in brain research and has found important clinical applications in neurology, psychiatry, and rehabilitation. Whereas coil designs and the spatial field properties have been intensively studied in the literature, the temporal dynamics of the field has received less attention. Typically, the magnetic field waveform is determined by available device circuit topologies rather than by consideration of what is optimal for neural stimulation. This paper analyzes and optimizes the waveform dynamics using a nonlinear model of a mammalian axon. The optimization objective was to minimize the pulse energy loss. The energy loss drives power consumption and heating, which are the dominating limitations of magnetic stimulation. The optimization approach is based on a hybrid global-local method. Different coordinate systems for describing the continuous waveforms in a limited parameter space are defined for numerical stability. The optimization results suggest that there are waveforms with substantially higher efficiency than that of traditional pulse shapes. One class of optimal pulses is analyzed further. Although the coil voltage profile of these waveforms is almost rectangular, the corresponding current shape presents distinctive characteristics, such as a slow low-amplitude first phase which precedes the main pulse and reduces the losses. Representatives of this class of waveforms corresponding to different maximum voltages are linked by a nonlinear transformation. The main phase, however, scales with time only. As with conventional magnetic stimulation pulses, briefer pulses result in lower energy loss but require higher coil voltage than longer pulses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Systematic reviewer authors intending to include all randomized participants in their meta-analyses need to make assumptions about the outcomes of participants with missing data. Objective: The objective of this paper is to provide systematic reviewer authors with a relatively simple guidance for addressing dichotomous data for participants excluded from analyses of randomized trials. Methods: This guide is based on a review of the Cochrane handbook and published methodological research. The guide deals with participants excluded from the analysis who were considered ‘non-adherent to the protocol’ but for whom data are available, and participants with missing data. Results: Systematic reviewer authors should include data from ‘non-adherent’ participants excluded from the primary study authors' analysis but for whom data are available. For missing, unavailable participant data, authors may conduct a complete case analysis (excluding those with missing data) as the primary analysis. Alternatively, they may conduct a primary analysis that makes plausible assumptions about the outcomes of participants with missing data. When the primary analysis suggests important benefit, sensitivity meta-analyses using relatively extreme assumptions that may vary in plausibility can inform the extent to which risk of bias impacts the confidence in the results of the primary analysis. The more plausible assumptions draw on the outcome event rates within the trial or in all trials included in the meta-analysis. The proposed guide does not take into account the uncertainty associated with assumed events. Conclusions: This guide proposes methods for handling participants excluded from analyses of randomized trials. These methods can help in establishing the extent to which risk of bias impacts meta-analysis results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adjuvant therapy of stage IIB/III melanoma with interferon reduces relapse and mortality by up to 33% but is accompanied by toxicity-related complications. Polymorphisms of the CTLA-4 gene associated with autoimmune diseases could help in identifying interferon treatment benefits. We previously genotyped 286 melanoma patients and 288 healthy (unrelated) individuals for six CTLA-4 polymorphisms (SNP). Previous analyses found no significant differences between the distributions of CTLA-4 polymorphisms in the melanoma population vs. controls, no significant difference in relapse free and overall survivals among patients and no correlation between autoimmunity and specific alleles. We report new analysis of these CTLA-4 genetic profiles, using Network Phenotyping Strategy (NPS). It is graph-theory based method, analyzing the SNP patterns. Application of NPS on CTLA-4 polymorphism captures allele relationship pattern for every patient into 6-partite mathematical graph P. Graphs P are combined into weighted 6-partite graph S, which subsequently decomposed into reference relationship profiles (RRP). Finally, every individual CTLA-4 genotype pattern is characterized by the graph distances of P from eight identified RRP's. RRP's are subgraphs of S, collecting equally frequent binary allele co-occurrences in all studied loci. If S topology represents the genetic “dominant model”, the RRP's and their characteristic frequencies are identical to expectation-maximization derived haplotypes and maximal likelihood estimates of their frequencies. The graph-representation allows showing that patient CTLA-4 haplotypes are uniquely different from the controls by absence of specific SNP combinations. New function-related insight is derived when the 6-partite graph reflects allelic state of CTLA-4. We found that we can use differences between individual P and specific RRPs to identify patient subpopulations with clearly different polymorphic patterns relatively to controls as well as to identify patients with significantly different survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a methodology to efficiently exploit natural-language expressed biomedical knowledge for repurposing existing drugs towards diseases for which they were not initially intended. Leveraging on developments in Computational Linguistics and Graph Theory, a methodology is defined to build a graph representation of knowledge, which is automatically analysed to discover hidden relations between any drug and any disease: these relations are specific paths among the biomedical entities of the graph, representing possible Modes of Action for any given pharmacological compound. We propose a measure for the likeliness of these paths based on a stochastic process on the graph. This measure depends on the abundance of indirect paths between a peptide and a disease, rather than solely on the strength of the shortest path connecting them. We provide real-world examples, showing how the method successfully retrieves known pathophysiological Mode of Action and finds new ones by meaningfully selecting and aggregating contributions from known bio-molecular interactions. Applications of this methodology are presented, and prove the efficacy of the method for selecting drugs as treatment options for rare diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disease control is of paramount importance in public health, with infectious disease extinction as the ultimate goal. Although diseases may go extinct due to random loss of effective contacts where the infection is transmitted to new susceptible individuals, the time to extinction in the absence of control may be prohibitively long. Intervention controls are typically defined on a deterministic schedule. In reality, however, such policies are administered as a random process, while still possessing a mean period. Here, we consider the effect of randomly distributed intervention as disease control on large finite populations. We show explicitly how intervention control, based on mean period and treatment fraction, modulates the average extinction times as a function of population size and rate of infection spread. In particular, our results show an exponential improvement in extinction times even though the controls are implemented using a random Poisson distribution. Finally, we discover those parameter regimes where random treatment yields an exponential improvement in extinction times over the application of strictly periodic intervention. The implication of our results is discussed in light of the availability of limited resources for control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the USA, the relationship between the legal availability of guns and the firearm-related homicide rate has been debated. It has been argued that unrestricted gun availability promotes the occurrence of firearm-induced homicides. It has also been pointed out that gun possession can protect potential victims when attacked. This paper provides a first mathematical analysis of this tradeoff, with the goal to steer the debate towards arguing about assumptions, statistics, and scientific methods. The model is based on a set of clearly defined assumptions, which are supported by available statistical data, and is formulated axiomatically such that results do not depend on arbitrary mathematical expressions. According to this framework, two alternative scenarios can minimize the gun-related homicide rate: a ban of private firearms possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. Importantly, the model identifies the crucial parameters that determine which policy minimizes the death rate, and thus serves as a guide for the design of future epidemiological studies. The parameters that need to be measured include the fraction of offenders that illegally possess a gun, the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry it when attacked. Limited data available in the literature were used to demonstrate how the model can be parameterized, and this preliminary analysis suggests that a ban of private firearm possession, or possibly a partial reduction in gun availability, might lower the rate of firearm-induced homicides. This, however, should not be seen as a policy recommendation, due to the limited data available to inform and parameterize the model. However, the model clearly defines what needs to be measured, and provides a basis for a scientific discussion about assumptions and data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antigenic characterization based on serological data, such as Hemagglutination Inhibition (HI) assay, is one of the routine procedures for influenza vaccine strain selection. In many cases, it would be impossible to measure all pairwise antigenic correlations between testing antigens and reference antisera in each individual experiment. Thus, we have to combine and integrate the HI tables from a number of individual experiments. Measurements from different experiments may be inconsistent due to different experimental conditions. Consequently we will observe a matrix with missing data and possibly inconsistent measurements. In this paper, we develop a new mathematical model, which we refer to as Joint Matrix Completion and Filtering, for HI data integration. In this approach, we simultaneously handle the incompleteness and uncertainty of observations by assuming that the underlying merged HI data matrix has low rank, as well as carefully modeling different levels of noises in each individual table. An efficient blockwise coordinate descent procedure is developed for optimization. The performance of our approach is validated on synthetic and real influenza datasets. The proposed joint matrix completion and filtering model can be adapted as a general model for biological data integration, targeting data noises and missing values within and across experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major barrier for a broad applicability of brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) based on electroencephalography (EEG) is the large number of EEG sensor electrodes typically used. The necessity for this results from the fact that the relevant information for the BCI is often spread over the scalp in complex patterns that differ depending on subjects and application scenarios. Recently, a number of methods have been proposed to determine an individual optimal sensor selection. These methods have, however, rarely been compared against each other or against any type of baseline. In this paper, we review several selection approaches and propose one additional selection criterion based on the evaluation of the performance of a BCI system using a reduced set of sensors. We evaluate the methods in the context of a passive BCI system that is designed to detect a P300 event-related potential and compare the performance of the methods against randomly generated sensor constellations. For a realistic estimation of the reduced system's performance we transfer sensor constellations found on one experimental session to a different session for evaluation. We identified notable (and unanticipated) differences among the methods and could demonstrate that the best method in our setup is able to reduce the required number of sensors considerably. Though our application focuses on EEG data, all presented algorithms and evaluation schemes can be transferred to any binary classification task on sensor arrays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the multiple atlas random diffeomorphic orbit model in Computational Anatomy (CA) for parameter estimation and segmentation of subcortical and ventricular neuroanatomy in magnetic resonance imagery. We assume that there exist multiple magnetic resonance image (MRI) atlases, each atlas containing a collection of locally-defined charts in the brain generated via manual delineation of the structures of interest. We focus on maximum a posteriori estimation of high dimensional segmentations of MR within the class of generative models representing the observed MRI as a conditionally Gaussian random field, conditioned on the atlas charts and the diffeomorphic change of coordinates of each chart that generates it. The charts and their diffeomorphic correspondences are unknown and viewed as latent or hidden variables. We demonstrate that the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm arises naturally, yielding the likelihood-fusion equation which the a posteriori estimator of the segmentation labels maximizes. The likelihoods being fused are modeled as conditionally Gaussian random fields with mean fields a function of each atlas chart under its diffeomorphic change of coordinates onto the target. The conditional-mean in the EM algorithm specifies the convex weights with which the chart-specific likelihoods are fused. The multiple atlases with the associated convex weights imply that the posterior distribution is a multi-modal representation of the measured MRI. Segmentation results for subcortical and ventricular structures of subjects, within populations of demented subjects, are demonstrated, including the use of multiple atlases across multiple diseased groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several approaches have been proposed for near real-time detection and prediction of the spread of influenza. These include search query data for influenza-related terms, which has been explored as a tool for augmenting traditional surveillance methods. In this paper, we present a method that uses Internet search query data from Baidu to model and monitor influenza activity in China. The objectives of the study are to present a comprehensive technique for: (i) keyword selection, (ii) keyword filtering, (iii) index composition and (iv) modeling and detection of influenza activity in China. Sequential time-series for the selected composite keyword index is significantly correlated with Chinese influenza case data. In addition, one-month ahead prediction of influenza cases for the first eight months of 2012 has a mean absolute percent error less than 11%. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the use of search query data from Baidu in conjunction with this approach for estimation of influenza activity in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tuberculosis still remains a major public health problem even though it is treatable and curable. Weight gain measurement during anti tuberculosis (TB) treatment period is an important component to assess the progress of TB patients. In this study, Latent Growth Models (LGMs) were implemented in a longitudinal design to predict the change in weight of TB patients who were given three different regimens under randomized controlled clinical trial for anti-TB treatment. Linear and Quadratic LGMs were fitted using Mplus software. The age, sex and treatment response of the TB patients were used as time invariant independent variables of the growth trajectories. The quadratic trend was found to be better in explaining the changes in weight without grouping than the quadratic model for three group comparisons. A significant increase in the change of weight over time was identified while a significant quadratic effect indicated that weights were sustained over time. The growth rate was similar in both the groups. The treament response had significant association with the growth rate of weight scores of the patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To project the HIV/AIDS epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) under different combinations of HIV testing and linkage to care (TLC) interventions including antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Beijing, China. Design: Mathematical modeling. Methods: Using a mathematical model to fit prevalence estimates from 2000–2010, we projected trends in HIV prevalence and incidence during 2011–2020 under five scenarios: (S1) current intervention levels by averaging 2000–2010 coverage; (S2) increased ART coverage with current TLC; (S3) increased TLC/ART coverage; (S4) increased condom use; and (S5) increased TLC/ART plus increased condom use. Results: The basic reproduction number based upon the current level of interventions is significantly higher than 1 ( confidence interval (CI), 1.83–2.35), suggesting that the HIV epidemic will continue to increase to 2020. Compared to the 2010 prevalence of 7.8%, the projected HIV prevalence in 2020 for the five prevention scenarios will be: (S1) Current coverage: 21.4% (95% CI, 9.9–31.7%); (S2) Increased ART: 19.9% (95% CI, 9.9–28.4%); (S3) Increased TLC/ART: 14.5% (95% CI, 7.0–23.8%); (S4) Increased condom use: 13.0% (95% CI, 9.8–28.4%); and (S5) Increased TLC/ART and condom use: 8.7% (95% CI, 5.4–11.5%). HIV epidemic will continue to rise () for S1–S4 even with hyperbolic coverage in the sensitivity analysis, and is expected to decline () for S5. Conclusion: Our transmission model suggests that Beijing MSM will have a rapidly rising HIV epidemic. Even enhanced levels of TLC/ART will not interrupt epidemic expansion, despite optimistic assumptions for coverage. Promoting condom use is a crucial component of combination interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of feature selection is to identify the relevant and non-redundant features from a dataset. In this article, the feature selection problem is organized as a graph-theoretic problem where a feature-dissimilarity graph is shaped from the data matrix. The nodes represent features and the edges represent their dissimilarity. Both nodes and edges are given weight according to the feature’s relevance and dissimilarity among the features, respectively. The problem of finding relevant and non-redundant features is then mapped into densest subgraph finding problem. We have proposed a multiobjective particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based algorithm that optimizes average node-weight and average edge-weight of the candidate subgraph simultaneously. The proposed algorithm is applied for identifying relevant and non-redundant disease-related genes from microarray gene expression data. The performance of the proposed method is compared with that of several other existing feature selection techniques on different real-life microarray gene expression datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One major drawback of deception detection is its vulnerability to countermeasures, whereby participants wilfully modulate their physiological or neurophysiological response to critical guilt-determining stimuli. One reason for this vulnerability is that stimuli are usually presented slowly. This allows enough time to consciously apply countermeasures, once the role of stimuli is determined. However, by increasing presentation speed, stimuli can be placed on the fringe of awareness, rendering it hard to perceive those that have not been previously identified, hindering the possibility to employ countermeasures. We tested an identity deception detector by presenting first names in Rapid Serial Visual Presentation and instructing participants to lie about their own identity. We also instructed participants to apply a series of countermeasures. The method proved resilient, remaining effective at detecting deception under all countermeasures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite a large amount of in vitro data, the dynamics of airway smooth muscle (ASM) mass increase in the airways of patients with asthma is not well understood. Here, we present a novel mathematical model that describes qualitatively the growth dynamics of ASM cells over short and long terms in the normal and inflammatory environments typically observed in asthma. The degree of ASM accumulation can be explained by an increase in the rate at which ASM cells switch between non-proliferative and proliferative states, driven by episodic inflammatory events. Our model explores the idea that remodelling due to ASM hyperplasia increases with the frequency and magnitude of these inflammatory events, relative to certain sensitivity thresholds. It highlights the importance of inflammation resolution speed by showing that when resolution is slow, even a series of small exacerbation events can result in significant remodelling, which persists after the inflammatory episodes. In addition, we demonstrate how the uncertainty in long-term outcome may be quantified and used to design an optimal low-risk individual anti-proliferative treatment strategy. The model shows that the rate of clearance of ASM proliferation and recruitment factors after an acute inflammatory event is a potentially important, and hitherto unrecognised, target for anti-remodelling therapy in asthma. It also suggests new ways of quantifying inflammation severity that could improve prediction of the extent of ASM accumulation. This ASM growth model should prove useful for designing new experiments or as a building block of more detailed multi-cellular tissue-level models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neurons in sensory cortex show stimulus selectivity and sparse population response, even in cases where no strong functionally specific structure in connectivity can be detected. This raises the question whether selectivity and sparseness can be generated and maintained in randomly connected networks. We consider a recurrent network of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons with random connectivity, driven by random projections from an input layer of stimulus selective neurons. In this architecture, the stimulus-to-stimulus and neuron-to-neuron modulation of total synaptic input is weak compared to the mean input. Surprisingly, we show that in the balanced state the network can still support high stimulus selectivity and sparse population response. In the balanced state, strong synapses amplify the variation in synaptic input and recurrent inhibition cancels the mean. Functional specificity in connectivity emerges due to the inhomogeneity caused by the generative statistical rule used to build the network. We further elucidate the mechanism behind and evaluate the effects of model parameters on population sparseness and stimulus selectivity. Network response to mixtures of stimuli is investigated. It is shown that a balanced state with unselective inhibition can be achieved with densely connected input to inhibitory population. Balanced networks exhibit the “paradoxical” effect: an increase in excitatory drive to inhibition leads to decreased inhibitory population firing rate. We compare and contrast selectivity and sparseness generated by the balanced network to randomly connected unbalanced networks. Finally, we discuss our results in light of experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many template-based modeling (TBM) methods have been developed over the recent years that allow for protein structure prediction and for the study of structure-function relationships for proteins. One major problem all TBM algorithms face, however, is their unsatisfactory performance when proteins under consideration are low-homology. To improve the performance of TBM methods for such targets, a novel model evaluation method was developed here, and named MEFTop. Our novel method focuses on evaluating the topology by using two novel groups of features. These novel features included secondary structure element (SSE) contact information and 3-dimensional topology information. By combining MEFTop algorithm with FR-t5, a threading program developed by our group, we found that this modified TBM program, which was named FR-t5-M, exhibited significant improvements in predictive abilities for low-homology protein targets. We further showed that the MEFTop could be a generalized method to improve threading programs for low-homology protein targets. The softwares (FR-t5-M and MEFTop) are available to non-commercial users at our website: http://jianglab.ibp.ac.cn/lims/FRt5M/FRt5M.html. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Due to the lack of timely access to resources for critical care, strategic use of antiviral drugs is crucial for mitigating the impact of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential in remote and isolated communities. We sought to evaluate the effect of antiviral treatment and prophylaxis of close contacts in a Canadian remote northern community. Methods: We used an agent-based, discrete-time simulation model for disease spread in a remote community, which was developed as an in-silico population using population census data. Relative and cumulative age-specific attack rates, and the total number of infections in simulated model scenarios were obtained. Results: We found that early initiation of antiviral treatment is more critical for lowering attack rates in a remote setting with a low population-average age compared to an urban population. Our results show that a significant reduction in the relative, age-specific attack rates due to increasing treatment coverage does not necessarily translate to a significant reduction in the overall arrack rate. When treatment coverage varies from low to moderate, targeted prophylaxis has a very limited impact in reducing attack rates and should be offered at a low level (below 10%) to avoid excessive waste of drugs. Conclusions: In contrast to previous work, for conservative treatment coverages, our results do not provide any convincing evidence for the implementation of targeted prophylaxis. The findings suggest that public health strategies in remote communities should focus on the wider availability (higher coverage) and timely distribution of antiviral drugs for treatment of clinically ill individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The precise mechanisms underlying dissections, especially those without connective tissue diseases or congenital vascular diseases, are incompletely understood. This study attempted to identify both the expression profile of the dissected ascending aorta and the interactome hotspots associated with the disease, using microarray technology and gene regulatory network analysis. There were 2,737 genes differentially expressed between patients with acute Stanford type A aortic dissection and controls. Eight interactome hotspots significantly associated with aortic dissection were identified by an integrative network algorithm. In particular, we identified a JAK2-centered expression module, which was validated in an independent gene expression microarray data set, and which was characterized by over-expressed cytokines and receptors in acute aortic dissection cases, indicating that JAK2 may play a key role in the inflammatory process, which potentially contributes to the occurrence of acute aortic dissection. Overall, the analytical strategy used in this study offered the possibility to identify functional relevant network modules and subsequently facilitated the biological interpretation in the complicated disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tumor heterogeneity is widely considered to be a determinant factor in tumor progression and in particular in its recurrence after therapy. Unfortunately, current medical techniques are unable to deduce clinically relevant information about tumor heterogeneity by means of non-invasive methods. As a consequence, when radiotherapy is used as a treatment of choice, radiation dosimetries are prescribed under the assumption that the malignancy targeted is of a homogeneous nature. In this work we discuss the effects of different radiation dose distributions on heterogeneous tumors by means of an individual cell-based model. To that end, a case is considered where two tumor cell phenotypes are present, which we assume to strongly differ in their respective cell cycle duration and radiosensitivity properties. We show herein that, as a result of such differences, the spatial distribution of the corresponding phenotypes, whence the resulting tumor heterogeneity can be predicted as growth proceeds. In particular, we show that if we start from a situation where a majority of ordinary cancer cells (CCs) and a minority of cancer stem cells (CSCs) are randomly distributed, and we assume that the length of CSC cycle is significantly longer than that of CCs, then CSCs become concentrated at an inner region as tumor grows. As a consequence we obtain that if CSCs are assumed to be more resistant to radiation than CCs, heterogeneous dosimetries can be selected to enhance tumor control by boosting radiation in the region occupied by the more radioresistant tumor cell phenotype. It is also shown that, when compared with homogeneous dose distributions as those being currently delivered in clinical practice, such heterogeneous radiation dosimetries fare always better than their homogeneous counterparts. Finally, limitations to our assumptions and their resulting clinical implications will be discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Longitudinal imaging studies have moved to the forefront of medical research due to their ability to characterize spatio-temporal features of biological structures across the lifespan. Credible models of the correlations in longitudinal imaging require two or more pattern components. Valid inference requires enough flexibility of the correlation model to allow reasonable fidelity to the true pattern. On the other hand, the existence of computable estimates demands a parsimonious parameterization of the correlation structure. For many one-dimensional spatial or temporal arrays, the linear exponent autoregressive (LEAR) correlation structure meets these two opposing goals in one model. The LEAR structure is a flexible two-parameter correlation model that applies to situations in which the within-subject correlation decreases exponentially in time or space. It allows for an attenuation or acceleration of the exponential decay rate imposed by the commonly used continuous-time AR(1) structure. We propose the Kronecker product LEAR correlation structure for multivariate repeated measures data in which the correlation between measurements for a given subject is induced by two factors (e.g., spatial and temporal dependence). Excellent analytic and numerical properties make the Kronecker product LEAR model a valuable addition to the suite of parsimonious correlation structures for multivariate repeated measures data. Longitudinal medical imaging data of caudate morphology in schizophrenia illustrates the appeal of the Kronecker product LEAR correlation structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are considered a threat for their potential to seed human influenza pandemics. Despite their acknowledged importance, there are significant unknowns regarding AIV transmission dynamics in their natural hosts, wild birds. Of particular interest is the difference in subtype dynamics between human and bird populations–in human populations, typically only two or three subtypes cocirculate, while avian populations are capable of simultaneously hosting a multitude of subtypes. One species in particular–ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres)–has been found to harbour a very wide range of AIV subtypes, which could make them a key player in the spread of new subtypes in wild bird populations. Very little is known about the mechanisms that drive subtype dynamics in this species, and here we address this gap in our knowledge. Taking advantage of two independent sources of data collected from ruddy turnstones in Delaware Bay, USA, we examine patterns of subtype diversity and dominance at this site. We compare these patterns to those produced by a stochastic, multi-strain transmission model to investigate possible mechanisms that are parsimonious with the observed subtype dynamics. We find, in agreement with earlier experimental work, that subtype differences are unnecessary to replicate the observed dynamics, and that neutrality alone is sufficient. We also evaluate the role of subtype cross-immunity and find that it is not necessary to generate patterns consistent with observations. This work offers new insights into the mechanisms behind subtype diversity and dominance in a species that has the potential to be a key player in AIV dynamics in wild bird populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess exposure to pyrethroids in the general population, one of most widely used method nowadays consists of measuring urinary metabolites. Unfortunately, interpretation of data is limited by the unspecified relation between dose and levels in biological tissues and excreta. The objective of this study was to develop a common multi-compartment toxicokinetic model to predict the time courses of two mainly used pyrethroid pesticides, permethrin and cypermethrin, and their metabolites (cis-DCCA, trans-DCCA and 3-PBA) in the human body and in accessible biological matrices following different exposure scenarios. Toxicokinetics was described mathematically by systems of differential equations to yield the time courses of these pyrethroids and their metabolites in the different compartments. Unknown transfer rate values between compartments were determined from best fits to available human data on the urinary excretion time courses of metabolites following an oral and dermal exposure to cypermethrin in volunteers. Since values for these coefficients have not yet been determined, a mathematical routine was programmed in MathCad to establish the possible range of values on the basis of physiological and mathematical considerations. The best combination of parameter values was then selected using a statistic measure (reliability factor) along with a statistically acceptable range of values for each parameter. With this approach, simulations provided a close approximation to published time course data. This model allows to predict urinary time courses of trans-DCCA, cis-DCCA and 3-PBA, whatever the exposure route. It can also serve to reconstruct absorbed doses of permethrin or cypermethrin in the population using measured biomarker data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Oxidative injury is involved in retinal and macular degeneration. We aim to assess if retinal degeneration associated with genetic defect modulates the retinal threshold for encountering additional oxidative challenges. Methods: Retinal oxidative injury was induced in degenerating retinas (rd10) and in control mice (WT) by intravitreal injections of paraquat (PQ). Retinal function and structure was evaluated by electroretinogram (ERG) and histology, respectively. Oxidative injury was assessed by immunohistochemistry for 4-Hydroxy-2-nonenal (HNE), and by Thiobarbituric Acid Reactive Substances (TBARS) and protein carbonyl content (PCC) assays. Anti-oxidant mechanism was assessed by quantitative real time PCR (QPCR) for mRNA of antioxidant genes and genes related to iron metabolism, and by catalase activity assay. Results: Three days following PQ injections (1 µl of 0.25, 0.75, and 2 mM) the average ERG amplitudes decreased more in the WT mice compared with the rd10 mice. For example, following 2 mM PQ injection, ERG amplitudes reduced 1.84-fold more in WT compared with rd10 mice (p = 0.02). Injection of 4 mM PQ resulted in retinal destruction. Altered retina morphology associated with PQ was substantially more severe in WT eyes compared with rd10 eyes. Oxidative injury according to HNE staining and TBARS assay increased 1.3-fold and 2.1-fold more, respectively, in WT compared with rd10 mice. At baseline, prior to PQ injection, mRNA levels of antioxidant genes (Superoxide Dismutase1, Glutathione Peroxidase1, Catalase) and of Transferrin measured by quantitative PCR were 2.1–7.8-fold higher in rd10 compared with WT mice (p<0.01 each), and catalase activity was 1.7-fold higher in rd10 (p = 0.0006). Conclusions: This data suggests that degenerating rd10 retinas encounter a relatively lower degree of damage in response to oxidative injury compared with normal retinas. Constitutive up-regulation of the oxidative defense mechanism in degenerating retinas may confer such relative protection from oxidative injury. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key feature of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is its ability to become dormant in the host. Little is known of the mechanisms by which these bacilli are able to persist in this state. Therefore, the focus of this study was to emulate environmental conditions encountered by M. tuberculosis in the granuloma, and determine the effect of such conditions on the physiology and infectivity of the organism. Non-replicating persistent (NRP) M. tuberculosis was established by the gradual depletion of nutrients in an oxygen-replete and controlled environment. In contrast to rapidly dividing bacilli, NRP bacteria exhibited a distinct phenotype by accumulating an extracellular matrix rich in free mycolate and lipoglycans, with increased arabinosylation. Microarray studies demonstrated a substantial down-regulation of genes involved in energy metabolism in NRP bacteria. Despite this reduction in metabolic activity, cells were still able to infect guinea pigs, but with a delay in the development of disease when compared to exponential phase bacilli. Using these approaches to investigate the interplay between the changing environment of the host and altered physiology of NRP bacteria, this study sheds new light on the conditions that are pertinent to M. tuberculosis dormancy and how this organism could be establishing latent disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]