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Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: syndromic surveillance system has great advantages in promoting the early detection of epidemics and reducing the necessities of disease confirmation, and it is especially effective for surveillance in resource poor settings. However, most current syndromic surveillance systems are established in developed countries, and there are very few reports on the development of an electronic syndromic surveillance system in resource-constrained settings. Objective: this study describes the design and pilot implementation of an electronic surveillance system (ISS) for the early detection of infectious disease epidemics in rural China, complementing the conventional case report surveillance system. Methods: ISS was developed based on an existing platform ‘Crisis Information Sharing Platform’ (CRISP), combining with modern communication and GIS technology. ISS has four interconnected functions: 1) work group and communication group; 2) data source and collection; 3) data visualization; and 4) outbreak detection and alerting. Results: As of Jan. 31st 2012, ISS has been installed and pilot tested for six months in four counties in rural China. 95 health facilities, 14 pharmacies and 24 primary schools participated in the pilot study, entering respectively 74256, 79701, and 2330 daily records into the central database. More than 90% of surveillance units at the study sites are able to send daily information into the system. In the paper, we also presented the pilot data from health facilities in the two counties, which showed the ISS system had the potential to identify the change of disease patterns at the community level. Conclusions: The ISS platform may facilitate the early detection of infectious disease epidemic as it provides near real-time syndromic data collection, interactive visualization, and automated aberration detection. However, several constraints and challenges were encountered during the pilot implementation of ISS in rural China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]