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Objectives: This paper examines the ethnic and gender differentials in high blood pressure (HBP), diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), arthritis and asthma among older people in Malaysia, and how these diseases along with other factors affect self-rated health. Differentials in the prevalence of non-communicable diseases among older people are examined in the context of socio-cultural perspectives in multi-ethnic Malaysia. Methods: Data for this paper are obtained from the 2004 Malaysian Population and Family Survey. The survey covered a nationally representative sample of 3,406 persons aged 50 and over, comprising three main ethnic groups (Malays, Chinese and Indians) and all other indigenous groups. Bivariate analyses and hierarchical logistic regression were used in the analyses. Results: Arthritis was the most common non-communicable disease (NCD), followed by HBP, diabetes, asthma and CHD. Older females were more likely than males to have arthritis and HBP, but males were more likely to have asthma. Diabetes and CHD were most prevalent among Indians, while arthritis and HBP were most prevalent among the Indigenous groups. Older people were more likely to report poor health if they suffered from NCD, especially CHD. Controlling for socio-economic, health and lifestyle factors, Chinese were least likely to report poor health, whereas Indians and Indigenous people were more likely to do so. Chinese that had HBP were more likely to report poor health compared to other ethnic groups with the same disease. Among those with arthritis, Indians were more likely to report poor health. Conclusion: Perceived health status and prevalence of arthritis, HBP, diabetes, asthma and CHD varied widely across ethnic groups. Promotion of healthy lifestyle, early detection and timely intervention of NCDs affecting different ethnic groups and gender with socio-cultural orientations would go a long way in alleviating the debilitating effects of the common NCDs among older people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Non-fatal self-harm is one of the most frequent reasons for emergency hospital admission and the strongest risk factor for subsequent suicide. Repeat self-harm and suicide are key clinical outcomes of the hospital management of self-harm. We have undertaken a comprehensive review of the international literature on the incidence of fatal and non-fatal repeat self-harm and investigated factors influencing variation in these estimates as well as changes in the incidence of repeat self-harm and suicide over the last 30 years. Methods and Findings: Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Google Scholar, article reference lists and personal paper collections of the authors were searched for studies describing rates of fatal and non-fatal self-harm amongst people who presented to health care services for deliberate self-harm. Heterogeneity in pooled estimates of repeat self-harm incidence was investigated using stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression. The search identified 177 relevant papers. The risk of suicide in the 12 months after an index attempt was 1.6% (CI 1.2–2.4) and 3.9% (CI 3.2–4.8) after 5 years. The estimated 1 year rate of non-fatal repeat self-harm was 16.3% (CI 15.1–17.7). This proportion was considerably lower in Asian countries (10.0%, CI 7.3–13.6%) and varies between studies identifying repeat episodes using hospital admission data (13.7%, CI 12.3–15.3) and studies using patient report (21.9%, CI 14.3–32.2). There was no evidence that the incidence of repeat self-harm was lower in more recent (post 2000) studies compared to those from the 1980s and 1990s. Conclusions: One in 25 patients presenting to hospital for self-harm will kill themselves in the next 5 years. The incidence of repeat self-harm and suicide in this population has not changed in over 10 years. Different methods of identifying repeat episodes of self-harm produce varying estimates of incidence and this heterogeneity should be considered when evaluating interventions aimed at reducing non-fatal repeat self-harm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a stratified analysis, the results from different strata if homogeneity assumption is met are pooled together to obtain a single summary estimate for the common effect parameter. However, the effect can appear homogeneous across strata using one measure but heterogeneous using another. Consequently, two researchers analyzing the same data can arrive at conflicting conclusions if they use different effect measures. In this paper, the author draws on the sufficient component cause model to develop a stratified-analysis method regarding a particular effect measure, the ‘peril ratio’. When there is no mechanistic interaction between the exposure under study and the stratifying variable (i.e., when they do not work together to complete any sufficient cause), the peril ratio is constant across strata. The author presents formulas for the estimation of such a common peril ratio. Three real data are re-analyzed for illustration. When the data is consistent with peril-ratio homogeneity in a stratified analysis, researchers can use the formulas in this paper to pool the strata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria prevalence remains high in many African countries despite massive scaling-up of insecticide treated nets (ITN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). This paper evaluates the protective effect of pyrethroid IRS and ITNs in relation to risk factors for malaria based on a study conducted in North-West Tanzania, where IRS has been conducted since 2007 and universal coverage of ITNs has been carried out recently. In 2011 community-based cross-sectional surveys were conducted in the two main malaria transmission periods that occur after the short and long rainy seasons. These included 5,152 and 4,325 children aged 0.5–14 years, respectively. Data on IRS and ITN coverage, household demographics and socio-economic status were collected using an adapted version of the Malaria Indicator Survey. Children were screened for malaria by rapid diagnostic test. In the second survey, haemoglobin density was measured and filter paper blood spots were collected to determine age-specific sero-prevalence in each community surveyed. Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in children 0.5–14 years old was 9.3% (95%CI:5.9–14.5) and 22.8% (95%CI:17.3–29.4) in the two surveys. Risk factors for infection after the short rains included households not being sprayed (OR = 0.39; 95%CI:0.20–0.75); low community net ownership (OR = 0.45; 95%CI:0.21–0.95); and low community SES (least poor vs. poorest tertile: OR = 0.13, 95%CI:0.05–0.34). Risk factors after the long rains included household poverty (per quintile increase: OR = 0.89; 95%CI:0.82–0.97) and community poverty (least poor vs. poorest tertile: OR = 0.26, 95%CI:0.15–0.44); household IRS or high community ITN ownership were not protective. Despite high IRS coverage and equitable LLIN distribution, poverty was an important risk factor for malaria suggesting it could be beneficial to target additional malaria control activities to poor households and communities. High malaria prevalence in some clusters and the limited protection given by pyrethroid IRS and LLINs suggest that it may be necessary to enhance established vector control activities and consider additional interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a performance measure for a prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is insensitive to the addition of strong markers. A number of measures sensitive to performance change have recently been proposed; however, these relative-performance measures may lead to self-contradictory conclusions. This paper examines alternative performance measures for prediction models: the Lorenz curve-based Gini and Pietra indices, and a standardized version of the Brier score, the scaled Brier. Computer simulations are performed in order to study the sensitivity of these measures to performance change when a new marker is added to a baseline model. When the discrimination power of the added marker is concentrated in the gray zone of the baseline model, the AUC and the Gini show minimal performance improvements. The Pietra and the scaled Brier show more significant improvements in the same situation, comparatively. The Pietra and the scaled Brier indices are therefore recommended for prediction model performance measurement, in light of their ease of interpretation, clinical relevance and sensitivity to gray-zone resolving markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Doctors, lawyers and criminal justice agencies need methods to assess vulnerability to violent radicalization. In synergy, public health interventions aim to prevent the emergence of risk behaviours as well as prevent and treat new illness events. This paper describes a new method of assessing vulnerability to violent radicalization, and then investigates the role of previously reported causes, including poor self-reported health, anxiety and depression, adverse life events, poverty, and migration and socio-political factors. The aim is to identify foci for preventive intervention. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of a representative population sample of men and women aged 18–45, of Muslim heritage and recruited by quota sampling by age, gender, working status, in two English cities. The main outcomes include self-reported health, symptoms of anxiety and depression (common mental disorders), and vulnerability to violent radicalization assessed by sympathies for violent protest and terrorist acts. Results: 2.4% of people showed some sympathy for violent protest and terrorist acts. Sympathy was more likely to be articulated by the under 20s, those in full time education rather than employment, those born in the UK, those speaking English at home, and high earners (>£75,000 a year). People with poor self-reported health were less likely to show sympathies for violent protest and terrorism. Anxiety and depressive symptoms, adverse life events and socio-political attitudes showed no associations. Conclusions: Sympathies for violent protest and terrorism were uncommon among men and women, aged 18–45, of Muslim heritage living in two English cities. Youth, wealth, and being in education rather than employment were risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Around 67 million pets are owned by households in the United Kingdom, and an increasing number of these are exotic animals. Approximately a third of pets are purchased through retail outlets or direct from breeders. A wide range of infections can be associated with companion animals. Objectives: This study uses a systematic literature review to describe the transmission of zoonotic disease in humans associated with a pet shop or other location selling pets (incidents of rabies tracebacks and zoonoses from pet food were excluded). Data sources: PubMed and EMBASE. Results: Fifty seven separate case reports or incidents were described in the 82 papers that were identified by the systematic review. Summary information on each incident is included in this manuscript. The infections include bacterial, viral and fungal diseases and range in severity from mild to life threatening. Infections associated with birds and rodents were the most commonly reported. Over half of the reports describe incidents in the Americas, and three of these were outbreaks involving more than 50 cases. Many of the incidents identified relate to infections in pet shop employees. Limitations: This review may have been subject to publication bias, where unusual and unexpected zoonotic infections may be over-represented in peer-reviewed publications. It was also restricted to English-language articles so that pathogens that are more common in non-Western countries, or in more exotic animals not common in Europe and the Americas, may have been under-represented. Conclusions/implications: A wide spectrum of zoonotic infections are acquired from pet shops. Salmonellosis and psittacosis were the most commonly documented diseases, however more unusual infections such as tularemia also appeared in the review. Given their potential to spread zoonotic infection, it is important that pet shops act to minimise the risk as far as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Little is known about how to tailor implementation of mental health services in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to the diverse settings encountered within and between countries. In this paper we compare the baseline context, challenges and opportunities in districts in five LMICs (Ethiopia, India, Nepal, South Africa and Uganda) participating in the PRogramme for Improving Mental health carE (PRIME). The purpose was to inform development and implementation of a comprehensive district plan to integrate mental health into primary care. Methods: A situation analysis tool was developed for the study, drawing on existing tools and expert consensus. Cross-sectional information obtained was largely in the public domain in all five districts. Results: The PRIME study districts face substantial contextual and health system challenges many of which are common across sites. Reliable information on existing treatment coverage for mental disorders was unavailable. Particularly in the low-income countries, many health service organisational requirements for mental health care were absent, including specialist mental health professionals to support the service and reliable supplies of medication. Across all sites, community mental health literacy was low and there were no models of multi-sectoral working or collaborations with traditional or religious healers. Nonetheless health system opportunities were apparent. In each district there was potential to apply existing models of care for tuberculosis and HIV or non-communicable disorders, which have established mechanisms for detection of drop-out from care, outreach and adherence support. The extensive networks of community-based health workers and volunteers in most districts provide further opportunities to expand mental health care. Conclusions: The low level of baseline health system preparedness across sites underlines that interventions at the levels of health care organisation, health facility and community will all be essential for sustainable delivery of quality mental health care integrated into primary care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infravesical obstruction leads to kidney and bladder dysfunction in a significant proportion of boys. The aim of this review is to determine the value of diagnostic tests for ascertainment of infravesical obstruction in boys. Methodology: We searched PubMed and EMBASE databases until January 1, 2013, to identify papers that described original diagnostic accuracy research for infravesical obstruction in boys. We extracted information on (1) patient characteristics and clinical presentation of PUV and (2) diagnostic pathway, (3) diagnostic accuracy measures and (4) assessed risk of bias. Principal Findings: We retrieved 15 studies describing various diagnostic pathways in 1,189 boys suspected for infravesical obstruction. The included studies reflect a broad clinical spectrum of patients, but all failed to present a standardised approach to confirm the presence and severity of obstruction. The risk of bias of included studies is rather high due to work-up bias and missing data. Conclusions: As a consequence of low quality of methods of the available studies we put little confidence in the reported estimates for the diagnostic accuracy of US, VCUG and new additional tests for ruling in or ruling out infravesical obstruction. To date, firm evidence to support common diagnostic pathways is lacking. Hence, we are unable to draw conclusions on diagnostic accuracy of tests for infravesical obstruction. In order to be able to standardise the diagnostic pathway for infravesical obstruction, adequate design and transparent reporting is mandatory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: It is known that experience of a previous crash is related to incidence of future crashes in a cohort of New Zealand cyclists. This paper investigated if the strength of such association differed by crash involvement propensity and by the need for medical care in the previous crash. Methods: The Taupo Bicycle Study involved 2590 adult cyclists recruited in 2006 and followed over a median period of 4.6 years through linkage to four national databases. The crash involvement propensity was estimated using propensity scores based on the participants' demographic, cycling and residential characteristics. Cox regression modelling for repeated events was performed with multivariate and propensity score adjustments. Analyses were then stratified by quintiles of the propensity score. Results: A total of 801 (31.0%) participants reported having experienced at least one bicycle crash in the twelve months prior to the baseline survey. They had a higher risk of experiencing crash events during follow-up (hazard ratio (HR): 1.43; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.60) but in the stratified analysis, this association was significant only in the highest two quintiles of the propensity score where the likelihood of having experienced a crash was more than 33%. The association was stronger for previous crashes that had received medical care (HR 1.63; 95% CI: 1.41, 1.88) compared to those that had not (HR 1.30; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.49). Conclusions: Previous crash experience increased the risk of future crash involvement in high-risk cyclists and the association was stronger for previous crashes attended medically. What distinguishes the high risk group warrants closer investigation, and the findings indicate also that health service providers could play an important role in prevention of bicycle crash injuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is rising in middle income countries. Population based strategies to reduce specific CHD risk factors have an important role to play in reducing overall CHD mortality. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CHD events. This paper presents an economic evaluation of population based salt reduction policies in Tunisia, Syria, Palestine and Turkey. Methods and Findings: Three policies to reduce dietary salt intake were evaluated: a health promotion campaign, labelling of food packaging and mandatory reformulation of salt content in processed food. These were evaluated separately and in combination. Estimates of the effectiveness of salt reduction on blood pressure were based on a literature review. The reduction in mortality was estimated using the IMPACT CHD model specific to that country. Cumulative population health effects were quantified as life years gained (LYG) over a 10 year time frame. The costs of each policy were estimated using evidence from comparable policies and expert opinion including public sector costs and costs to the food industry. Health care costs associated with CHDs were estimated using standardized unit costs. The total cost of implementing each policy was compared against the current baseline (no policy). All costs were calculated using 2010 PPP exchange rates. In all four countries most policies were cost saving compared with the baseline. The combination of all three policies (reducing salt consumption by 30%) resulted in estimated cost savings of $235,000,000 and 6455 LYG in Tunisia; $39,000,000 and 31674 LYG in Syria; $6,000,000 and 2682 LYG in Palestine and $1,3000,000,000 and 378439 LYG in Turkey. Conclusion: Decreasing dietary salt intake will reduce coronary heart disease deaths in the four countries. A comprehensive strategy of health education and food industry actions to label and reduce salt content would save both money and lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To extend existing research on the US health disadvantage relative to Europe by studying the relationships of disability with age from midlife to old age in the US and four European regions (England/Northern and Western Europe/Southern Europe/Eastern Europe) including their wealth-related differences, using a flexible statistical approach to model the age-functions. Methods: We used data from three studies on aging, with nationally representative samples of adults aged 50 to 85 from 15 countries (N = 48225): the US-American Health and Retirement Study (HRS), the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Outcomes were mobility limitations and limitations in instrumental activities of daily living. We applied fractional polynomials of age to determine best fitting functional forms for age on disability in each region, while controlling for socio-demographic characteristics and important risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, smoking, physical inactivity). Results: Findings showed high levels of disability in the US with small age-related changes between 50 and 85. Levels of disability were generally lower in Eastern Europe, followed by England and Southern Europe and lowest in Northern and Western Europe. In these latter countries age-related increases of disability, though, were steeper than in the US, especially in Eastern and Southern Europe. For all countries and at all ages, disability levels were higher among adults with low wealth compared to those with high wealth, with largest wealth-related differences among those in early old age in the USA. Conclusions: This paper illustrates considerable variations of disability and its relationship with age. It supports the hypothesis that less developed social policies and more pronounced socioeconomic inequalities are related to higher levels of disability and an earlier onset of disability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Increasing active travel (primarily walking and cycling) has been widely advocated for reducing obesity levels and achieving other population health benefits. However, the strength of evidence underpinning this strategy is unclear. This study aimed to assess the evidence that active travel has significant health benefits. Methods: The study design was a systematic review of (i) non-randomised and randomised controlled trials, and (ii) prospective observational studies examining either (a) the effects of interventions to promote active travel or (b) the association between active travel and health outcomes. Reports of studies were identified by searching 11 electronic databases, websites, reference lists and papers identified by experts in the field. Prospective observational and intervention studies measuring any health outcome of active travel in the general population were included. Studies of patient groups were excluded. Results: Twenty-four studies from 12 countries were included, of which six were studies conducted with children. Five studies evaluated active travel interventions. Nineteen were prospective cohort studies which did not evaluate the impact of a specific intervention. No studies were identified with obesity as an outcome in adults; one of five prospective cohort studies in children found an association between obesity and active travel. Small positive effects on other health outcomes were found in five intervention studies, but these were all at risk of selection bias. Modest benefits for other health outcomes were identified in five prospective studies. There is suggestive evidence that active travel may have a positive effect on diabetes prevention, which may be an important area for future research. Conclusions: Active travel may have positive effects on health outcomes, but there is little robust evidence to date of the effectiveness of active transport interventions for reducing obesity. Future evaluations of such interventions should include an assessment of their impacts on obesity and other health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: India, with a population of more than 1.21 billion, has the highest maternal mortality in the world (estimated to be 56000 in 2010); and adolescent (aged 15–19) mortality shares 9% of total maternal deaths. Addressing the maternity care needs of adolescents may have considerable ramifications for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG)–5. This paper assesses the socioeconomic differentials in accessing full antenatal care and professional attendance at delivery by adolescent mothers (aged 15–19) in India during 1990–2006. Methods and Findings: Data from three rounds of the National Family Health Survey of India conducted during 1992–93, 1998–99, and 2005–06 were analyzed. The Cochran-Armitage and Chi-squared test for linear and non-linear time trends were applied, respectively, to understand the trend in the proportion of adolescent mothers utilizing select maternity care services during 1990–2006. Using pooled multivariate logistic regression models, the probability of select maternal healthcare utilization among women by key socioeconomic characteristics was appraised. After adjusting for potential socio-demographic and economic characteristics, the likelihood of adolescents accessing full antenatal care increased by only 4% from 1990 to 2006. However, the probability of adolescent women availing themselves of professional attendance at delivery increased by 79% during the same period. The study also highlights the desolate disparities in maternity care services among adolescents across the most and the least favoured groups. Conclusion: Maternal care interventions in India need focused programs for rural, uneducated, poor adolescent women so that they can avail themselves of measures to delay child bearing, and for better antenatal consultation and delivery care in case of pregnancy. This study strongly advocates the promotion of a comprehensive ‘adolescent scheme’ along the lines of ‘Continuum of Maternal, Newborn and Child health Care’ to address the unmet need of reproductive and maternal healthcare services among adolescent women in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Excess mortality from diseases and medical conditions (natural death) in persons with psychiatric disorders has been extensively reported. Even in the Nordic countries with well-developed welfare systems, register based studies find evidence of an excess mortality. In recent years, cardiac mortality and death by diseases of the circulatory system has seen a decline in all the Nordic countries, but a recent paper indicates that women and men in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, who had been hospitalised for a psychotic disorder, had a two to three-fold increased risk of dying from a cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to compare the mortality by diseases of the circulatory system among patients with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia in the three Nordic countries Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. Furthermore, the aim was to examine and compare life expectancy among these patients. Cause specific Standardized Mortality Rates (SMRs) were calculated for each specific subgroup of mortality. Life expectancy was calculated using Wiesler’s method. Results: The SMR for bipolar disorder for diseases of the circulatory system was approximately 2 in all countries and both sexes. SMR was slightly higher for people with schizophrenia for both genders and in all countries, except for men in Denmark. Overall life expectancy was much lower among persons with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia, with life expectancy being from 11 to 20 years shorter. Conclusion: Our data show that persons in the Nordic countries with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder have a substantially reduced life expectancy. An evaluation of the reasons for these increased mortality rates should be prioritized when planning healthcare in the coming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

France implemented a comprehensive smoke-free law in two phases: Phase 1 (February 2007) banned smoking in workplaces, shopping centres, airports, train stations, hospitals, and schools; Phase 2 (January 2008) banned smoking in hospitality venues (bars, restaurants, hotels, casinos, nightclubs). This paper evaluates France’s smoke-free law based on the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project in France (the ITC France Project), which conducted a cohort survey of approximately 1,500 smokers and 500 non-smokers before the implementation of the laws (Wave 1) and two waves after the implementation (Waves 2 and 3). Results show that the smoke-free law led to a very significant and near-total elimination of observed smoking in key venues such as bars (from 94–97% to 4%) and restaurants (from 60–71% to 2–3%) at Wave 2, which was sustained four years later (6–8% in bars; 1–2% in restaurants). The reduction in self-reported smoking by smoking respondents was nearly identical to the effects shown in observed smoking. Observed smoking in workplaces declined significantly after the law (from 41–48% to 18–20%), which continued to decline at Wave 3 (to 14–15%). Support for the smoke-free laws increased significantly after their implementation and continued to increase at Wave 3 (p<.001 among smokers for bars and restaurants; p<.001 among smokers and p = .003 for non-smokers for workplaces). The findings demonstrate that smoke-free policies that are implemented in ways consistent with the Guidelines for Article 8 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) lead to substantial and sustained reductions in indoor smoking while also leading to high levels of support by the public. Moreover, contrary to arguments by opponents of smoke-free laws, smoking in the home did not increase after the law was implemented and prevalence of smoke-free homes among smokers increased from 23.2% before the law to 37.2% 5 years after the law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This population-based cohort study has the objective to understand the sociodemographic characteristics and health conditions of patients who do not receive surgery within 18 months following an ambulatory visit to an orthopaedic surgeon. Methods: Administrative healthcare databases in Ontario, Canada were linked to identify all patients making an initial ambulatory visit to orthopaedic surgeons between October 1st, 2004 and September 30th, 2005. Logistic regression was used to examine predictors of not receiving surgery within 18 months. Results: Of the 477,945 patients in the cohort 49% visited orthopaedic surgeons for injury, and 24% for arthritis. Overall, 79.3% did not receive surgery within 18 months of the initial visit, which varied somewhat by diagnosis at first visit (84.5% for injury and 73.0% for arthritis) with highest proportions in the 0–24 and 25–44 age groups. The distribution by income quintile of patients visiting was skewed towards higher incomes. Regression analysis for each diagnostic group showed that younger patients were significantly more likely to be non-surgical than those aged 65+ years (age 0–24: OR 3.45 95%CI 3.33–3.57; age 25–44: OR 1.30 95%CI 1.27–1.33). The odds of not getting surgery were significantly higher for women than men for injury and other conditions; the opposite was true for arthritis and bone conditions. Conclusion: A substantial proportion of referrals were for expert diagnosis or advice on management and treatment. The findings also suggest socioeconomic inequalities in access to orthopaedic care. Further research is needed to investigate whether the high caseload of non-surgical cases affects waiting times to see a surgeon. This paper contributes to the development of evidence-based strategies to streamline access to surgery, and to develop models of care for non-surgical patients to optimize the use of scarce orthopaedic surgeon resources and to enhance the management of musculoskeletal disorders across the care continuum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The paper describes the creation of a new scale to measure intimate partner violence (IPV) among gay and bisexual men. Methods: Seven focus group discussions were held with gay and bisexual men, focusing on defining intimate partner violence: 30 forms of IPV were identified. A venue-recruited sample of 912 gay and bisexual men was surveyed, examining definitional understanding and recent experiences of each of the 30 forms of IPV. Participants were also asked questions from the CDC definition of intimate partner violence and the short-form of the Conflicts Tactics Scale (CTS2S). Factor analysis of responses to the definitional questions was used to create the IPV-GBM scale, and the prevalence of intimate partner violence was compared with that identified by the CDC and CTS2S measures of intimate partner violence. Results: A 23-item scale, with 5 unique domains, was created, with strong internal reliability (Cronbach Alpha >.90). The IPV-GBM scale mirrored both the CDC and CTS2S definitions of intimate partner violence, but contained additional domains such as controlling violence, monitoring behaviors, emotional violence, and HIV-related violence. The new scale identified a significantly higher prevalence of IPV than either of the more commonly used measures. Conclusions: The results presented here provide encouraging evidence for a new, more accurate measure of intimate partner violence among gay and bisexual men in the U.S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Though the cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality in India, little is known about the human and economic loss attributed to the disease. The aim of this paper is to account the age and sex pattern of mortality, hospitalisation and the cost of hospitalisation for cardiovascular diseases in India. Data and Methods: Data for the present study has been drawn from multiple sources; 52nd and 60th rounds of the National Sample Survey, Special Survey of Death, 2001–03 and the Sample Registration System 2004–2010. Under the changing demographics and constant assumptions of mortality, hospitalisation and cost of hospitalisation, we have estimated the deaths, hospitalisation and cost of hospitalisation for cardiovascular diseases in India during 2004 to 2021. Descriptive analyses and multivariate techniques were used to understand the socio-economic differentials in cost of hospitalisation for cardiovascular diseases in India. Findings: In India, the cardiovascular diseases accounted for an estimated 1.4 million deaths in 2004 and it is likely to be 2.1 million in 2021. An estimated 6.7 million people were hospitalised for cardiovascular diseases in 2004, and projected to be 10.9 million by 2021. Unlike mortality, majority of the hospitalisation due to cardiovascular diseases will be in the prime working age group (25–59). The estimated cost of hospitalisation for cardiovascular diseases was 94/− billion rupees in 2004 and expected to be 152/− billion rupees by 2021, at 2004 prices. The cost of hospitalisation for cardiovascular diseases was significantly high in private health centres, high fertility states and among high socio-economic groups. Conclusion: The cardiovascular mortality and hospitalisation will be largely concentrated in the prime working age group and the cost of hospitalisation is expected to increase substantially in coming years. This calls for mobilising resources, increasing access to health insurance and devising strategies for the prevention, control and treatment of cardiovascular diseases in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accurate data on coverage of key maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) interventions are crucial for monitoring progress toward the Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5. Coverage estimates are primarily obtained from routine population surveys through self-reporting, the validity of which is not well understood. We aimed to examine the validity of the coverage of selected MNCH interventions in Gongcheng County, China. Method and Findings: We conducted a validation study by comparing women’s self-reported coverage of MNCH interventions relating to antenatal and postnatal care, mode of delivery, and child vaccinations in a community survey with their paper- and electronic-based health care records, treating the health care records as the reference standard. Of 936 women recruited, 914 (97.6%) completed the survey. Results show that self-reported coverage of these interventions had moderate to high sensitivity (0.57 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50–0.63] to 0.99 [95% CI: 0.98–1.00]) and low to high specificity (0 to 0.83 [95% CI: 0.80–0.86]). Despite varying overall validity, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranging between 0.49 [95% CI: 0.39–0.57] and 0.90 [95% CI: 0.88–0.92], bias in the coverage estimates at the population level was small to moderate, with the test to actual positive (TAP) ratio ranging between 0.8 and 1.5 for 24 of the 28 indicators examined. Our ability to accurately estimate validity was affected by several caveats associated with the reference standard. Caution should be exercised when generalizing the results to other settings. Conclusions: The overall validity of self-reported coverage was moderate across selected MNCH indicators. However, at the population level, self-reported coverage appears to have small to moderate degree of bias. Accuracy of the coverage was particularly high for indicators with high recorded coverage or low recorded coverage but high specificity. The study provides insights into the accuracy of self-reports based on a population survey in low- and middle-income countries. Similar studies applying an improved reference standard are warranted in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: syndromic surveillance system has great advantages in promoting the early detection of epidemics and reducing the necessities of disease confirmation, and it is especially effective for surveillance in resource poor settings. However, most current syndromic surveillance systems are established in developed countries, and there are very few reports on the development of an electronic syndromic surveillance system in resource-constrained settings. Objective: this study describes the design and pilot implementation of an electronic surveillance system (ISS) for the early detection of infectious disease epidemics in rural China, complementing the conventional case report surveillance system. Methods: ISS was developed based on an existing platform ‘Crisis Information Sharing Platform’ (CRISP), combining with modern communication and GIS technology. ISS has four interconnected functions: 1) work group and communication group; 2) data source and collection; 3) data visualization; and 4) outbreak detection and alerting. Results: As of Jan. 31st 2012, ISS has been installed and pilot tested for six months in four counties in rural China. 95 health facilities, 14 pharmacies and 24 primary schools participated in the pilot study, entering respectively 74256, 79701, and 2330 daily records into the central database. More than 90% of surveillance units at the study sites are able to send daily information into the system. In the paper, we also presented the pilot data from health facilities in the two counties, which showed the ISS system had the potential to identify the change of disease patterns at the community level. Conclusions: The ISS platform may facilitate the early detection of infectious disease epidemic as it provides near real-time syndromic data collection, interactive visualization, and automated aberration detection. However, several constraints and challenges were encountered during the pilot implementation of ISS in rural China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To determine prevalence and incidence of bacterial vaginosis (BV) and risk factors in young sexually-active Australian women. Methods: 1093 women aged 16–25 years were recruited from primary-care clinics. Participants completed 3-monthly questionnaires and self-collected vaginal smears 6-monthly for 12-months. The primary endpoint was a Nugent Score = 7–10 (BV) and the secondary endpoint was a NS = 4–10 (abnormal flora [AF]). BV and AF prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were derived, and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) calculated to explore epidemiological associations with prevalent BV and AF. Proportional-hazards regression models were used to examine factors associated with incident BV and AF. Results: At baseline 129 women had BV [11.8% (95%CI: 9.4–14.2)] and 188 AF (17.2%; 15.1–19.5). Prevalent BV was associated with having a recent female partner [AOR = 2.1; 1.0–4.4] and lack of tertiary-education [AOR = 1.9; 1.2–3.0]; use of an oestrogen-containing contraceptive (OCC) was associated with reduced risk [AOR = 0.6; 0.4–0.9]. Prevalent AF was associated with the same factors, and additionally with >5 male partners (MSP) in 12-months [AOR = 1.8; 1.2–2.5)], and detection of C.trachomatis or M.genitalium [AOR = 2.1; 1.0–4.5]. There were 82 cases of incident BV (9.4%;7.7–11.7/100 person-years) and 129 with incident AF (14.8%; 12.5–17.6/100 person-years). Incident BV and AF were associated with a new MSP [adjusted rate ratio (ARR) = 1.5; 1.1–2.2 and ARR = 1.5; 1.1–2.0], respectively. OCC-use was associated with reduced risk of incident AF [ARR = 0.7; 0.5–1.0]. Conclusion: This paper presents BV and AF prevalence and incidence estimates from a large prospective cohort of young Australian women predominantly recruited from primary-care clinics. These data support the concept that sexual activity is strongly associated with the development of BV and AF and that use of an OCC is associated with reduced risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Vitamin B12 deficiency is prevalent in many countries of origin of refugees. Using a threshold of 5% above which a prevalence of low Vitamin B12 is indicative of a population health problem, we hypothesised that Vitamin B12 deficiency exceeds this threshold among newly-arrived refugees resettling in Australia, and is higher among women due to their increased risk of food insecurity. This paper reports Vitamin B12 levels in a large cohort of newly arrived refugees in five Australian states and territories. Methods: In a cross-sectional descriptive study, we collected Vitamin B12, folate and haematological indices on all refugees (n = 916; response rate 94% of eligible population) who had been in Australia for less than one year, and attended one of the collaborating health services between July 2010 and July 2011. Results: 16.5% of participants had Vitamin B12 deficiency (<150 pmol/L). One-third of participants from Iran and Bhutan, and one-quarter of participants from Afghanistan had Vitamin B12 deficiency. Contrary to our hypothesis, low Vitamin B12 levels were more prevalent in males than females. A higher prevalence of low Vitamin B12 was also reported in older age groups in some countries. The sensitivity of macrocytosis in detecting Vitamin B12 deficiency was only 4.6%. Conclusion: Vitamin B12 deficiency is an important population health issue in newly-arrived refugees from many countries. All newly-arrived refugees should be tested for Vitamin B12 deficiency. Ongoing research should investigate causes, treatment, and ways to mitigate food insecurity, and the contribution of such measures to enhancing the health of the refugee communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A large proportion of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low and middle income countries (LMICs) have unknown treatment outcomes and are classified as lost to follow-up (LTFU). Physical tracing of patients classified as LTFU is common; however, effects of tracing on outcomes remains unclear. The objective of this systematic review is to compare estimates of LTFU, mortality and retention in LMIC in cohorts of patients with and without physical tracing. Methods and Findings: We systematically identified studies in LMIC programmatic settings using MEDLINE (2003–2011) and HIV conference abstracts (2009–2011). Studies reporting the proportion LTFU 12-months after ART initiation were included. Tracing activities were determined from manuscripts or by contacting study authors. Studies were classified as “tracing studies” if physical tracing was available for the majority of patients. Summary estimates from the 2 groups of studies (tracing and non-tracing) for LTFU, mortality, stop of ART, transfers out, and retention on ART were determined. 261 papers and 616 abstracts were identified of which 39 studies comprising 54 separate cohorts (n = 187,666) met inclusion criteria. Of those, physical tracing was available for 46% of cohorts. Treatment programs with physical tracing activities had lower estimated LTFU (7.6% vs. 15.1%; p<.001), higher estimated mortality (10.5% vs. 6.6%; p = .006), higher retention on ART (80.0 vs. 75.8%; p = .04) and higher retention at the original site (80.0% vs. 72.9%; p = .02). Conclusions: Knowledge of patient tracing is critical when interpreting program outcomes of LTFU, mortality and retention. The reduction of the proportion LTFU in tracing studies was only partially explained by re-classification of unknown outcomes. These data suggest that tracing may lead to increased re-engagement of patients in care, rather than just improved classification of unknown outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Malnutrition is a clinical condition due to the imbalance among needs, intake and use of nutrients, leading to the increase of morbidity and mortality, and to the impairment of quality of life. Even in industrialized countries undernutrition is becoming an alarming phenomenon, especially involving elderly institutionalized subjects. A multicentric study called PIMAI (Project Iatrogenic MAlnutrition in Italy), was carried out in Italy over 2005. The aims of this study were to determine the prevalence of malnutrition in hospitals and in nursing care homes (NH), to assess the level of nutritional attention and to measure the perceived quality in food and nutritional care. This paper represents a preliminary analysis of data collected in a NH included in the PIMAI project. Materials and methods: A total of 100 subjects (29 males and 71 females, aged 80.2±10 years), were recruited from January to June 2005 at the Clinical Rehabilitation Institute “Villa delle Querce” in Nemi (Rome), among patients in the NH facility. All the participants underwent a multidimensional geriatric evaluation (considering nutritional, clinical, functional and cognitive parameters), and a survey on “perceived quality” of nutritional care. Results and discussion: According to nutritional status defined by the Mini Nutritional Assessment®, data analysis showed a high prevalence of malnutrition (36%) especially related to advanced age, chewing, cognitive and functional impairments. Patients seemed to consider nutrition to be important for their health; on the other hand, they were not thoroughly satisfied with the quality of food. Particularly, it was observed scarce attention to nutritional status from medical and nursing staff. Conclusions: Our study confirms the need to pay greater attention to nutritional status in elderly institutionalized subjects. Medical and nursing teams need to be aware of the importance to perform an evaluation of nutritional status in these subset of subjects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although the relationship between allergy and cancer has been investigated extensively, the role of allergy in head and neck cancer (HNC) appears less consistent. It is not clear whether allergies can independently influence the risk of HNC in the presence of known strong environmental risk factors, including consumption of alcohol, betel quid, and cigarette. Methods: The current paper reports results from: 1) an original hospital-based case-control study, which included 252 incident cases of HNC and 236 controls frequency-matched to cases on sex and age; and 2) a meta-analysis combining the results of the current case-control study and 13 previously published studies (9 cohort studies with 727,569 subjects and 550 HNC outcomes and 5 case-control studies with 4,017 HNC cases and 10,928 controls). Results: In the original case-control study, we observed a strong inverse association between allergies and HNC [odds ratio = 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.27–0.62]. The meta-analysis also indicated a statistically significant inverse association between HNC and allergies [meta-relative risk (RR) = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63–0.91], particularly strong for allergic rhinitis (meta-RR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.40–0.76). In addition, the inverse association between allergies and HNC was observed only among men (meta-RR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.54–0.84) but not among women (meta-RR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.81–1.18). Conclusions: These findings suggest that immunity plays an influential role in the risk of HNC. Future studies investigating immune biomarkers, including cytokine profiles and genetic polymorphisms, are warranted to further delineate the relationship between allergies and HNC. Understanding the relationship between allergies and HNC may help devise effective strategies to reduce and treat HNC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Research using electronic health records (EHRs) relies heavily on coded clinical data. Due to variation in coding practices, it can be difficult to aggregate the codes for a condition in order to define cases. This paper describes a methodology to develop ‘indicator markers’ found in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA); these are a broader range of codes which may allow a probabilistic case definition to use in cases where no diagnostic code is yet recorded. Methods: We examined EHRs of 5,843 patients in the General Practice Research Database, aged ≥30y, with a first coded diagnosis of RA between 2005 and 2008. Lists of indicator markers for RA were developed initially by panels of clinicians drawing up code-lists and then modified based on scrutiny of available data. The prevalence of indicator markers, and their temporal relationship to RA codes, was examined in patients from 3y before to 14d after recorded RA diagnosis. Findings: Indicator markers were common throughout EHRs of RA patients, with 83.5% having 2 or more markers. 34% of patients received a disease-specific prescription before RA was coded; 42% had a referral to rheumatology, and 63% had a test for rheumatoid factor. 65% had at least one joint symptom or sign recorded and in 44% this was at least 6-months before recorded RA diagnosis. Conclusion: Indicator markers of RA may be valuable for case definition in cases which do not yet have a diagnostic code. The clinical diagnosis of RA is likely to occur some months before it is coded, shown by markers frequently occurring ≥6 months before recorded diagnosis. It is difficult to differentiate delay in diagnosis from delay in recording. Information concealed in free text may be required for the accurate identification of patients and to assess the quality of care in general practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The demand for vaccination against infectious diseases involves a choice between vaccinating and not vaccinating, in which there is a trade-off between the benefits and costs of each option. The aim of this paper is to investigate these trade-offs and to estimate how the perceived prevalence and severity of both the disease against which the vaccine is given and any vaccine associated adverse events (VAAE) might affect demand. A Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) was used to elicit stated preferences from a representative sample of 369 UK mothers of children below 5 years of age, for three hypothetical vaccines. Cost was included as an attribute, which enabled estimation of the willingness to pay for different vaccines having differing levels of the probability of occurrence and severity of both the infection and VAAE. The results suggest that the severity of the health effects associated with both the diseases and VAAEs exert an important influence on the demand for vaccination, whereas the probability of these events occurring was not a significant predictor. This has important implications for public health policy, which has tended to focus on the probability of these health effects as the main influence on decision making. Our results also suggest that anticipated regrets about the consequences of making the wrong decision also exert an influence on demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]