Search

Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: syndromic surveillance system has great advantages in promoting the early detection of epidemics and reducing the necessities of disease confirmation, and it is especially effective for surveillance in resource poor settings. However, most current syndromic surveillance systems are established in developed countries, and there are very few reports on the development of an electronic syndromic surveillance system in resource-constrained settings. Objective: this study describes the design and pilot implementation of an electronic surveillance system (ISS) for the early detection of infectious disease epidemics in rural China, complementing the conventional case report surveillance system. Methods: ISS was developed based on an existing platform ‘Crisis Information Sharing Platform’ (CRISP), combining with modern communication and GIS technology. ISS has four interconnected functions: 1) work group and communication group; 2) data source and collection; 3) data visualization; and 4) outbreak detection and alerting. Results: As of Jan. 31st 2012, ISS has been installed and pilot tested for six months in four counties in rural China. 95 health facilities, 14 pharmacies and 24 primary schools participated in the pilot study, entering respectively 74256, 79701, and 2330 daily records into the central database. More than 90% of surveillance units at the study sites are able to send daily information into the system. In the paper, we also presented the pilot data from health facilities in the two counties, which showed the ISS system had the potential to identify the change of disease patterns at the community level. Conclusions: The ISS platform may facilitate the early detection of infectious disease epidemic as it provides near real-time syndromic data collection, interactive visualization, and automated aberration detection. However, several constraints and challenges were encountered during the pilot implementation of ISS in rural China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several approaches have been proposed for near real-time detection and prediction of the spread of influenza. These include search query data for influenza-related terms, which has been explored as a tool for augmenting traditional surveillance methods. In this paper, we present a method that uses Internet search query data from Baidu to model and monitor influenza activity in China. The objectives of the study are to present a comprehensive technique for: (i) keyword selection, (ii) keyword filtering, (iii) index composition and (iv) modeling and detection of influenza activity in China. Sequential time-series for the selected composite keyword index is significantly correlated with Chinese influenza case data. In addition, one-month ahead prediction of influenza cases for the first eight months of 2012 has a mean absolute percent error less than 11%. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the use of search query data from Baidu in conjunction with this approach for estimation of influenza activity in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including Hepatitis B and C virus, are emerging public health risks in China, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aims to assess the magnitude and risks of STIs among Chinese MSM. Methods: Chinese and English peer-reviewed articles were searched in five electronic databases from January 2000 to February 2013. Pooled prevalence estimates for each STI infection were calculated using meta-analysis. Infection risks of STIs in MSM, HIV-positive MSM and male sex workers (MSW) were obtained. This review followed the PRISMA guidelines and was registered in PROSPERO. Results: Eighty-eight articles (11 in English and 77 in Chinese) investigating 35,203 MSM in 28 provinces were included in this review. The prevalence levels of STIs among MSM were 6.3% (95% CI: 3.5–11.0%) for chlamydia, 1.5% (0.7–2.9%) for genital wart, 1.9% (1.3–2.7%) for gonorrhoea, 8.9% (7.8–10.2%) for hepatitis B (HBV), 1.2% (1.0–1.6%) for hepatitis C (HCV), 66.3% (57.4–74.1%) for human papillomavirus (HPV), 10.6% (6.2–17.6%) for herpes simplex virus (HSV-2) and 4.3% (3.2–5.8%) for Ureaplasma urealyticum. HIV-positive MSM have consistently higher odds of all these infections than the broader MSM population. As a subgroup of MSM, MSW were 2.5 (1.4–4.7), 5.7 (2.7–12.3), and 2.2 (1.4–3.7) times more likely to be infected with chlamydia, gonorrhoea and HCV than the broader MSM population, respectively. Conclusion: Prevalence levels of STIs among MSW were significantly higher than the broader MSM population. Co-infection of HIV and STIs were prevalent among Chinese MSM. Integration of HIV and STIs healthcare and surveillance systems is essential in providing effective HIV/STIs preventive measures and treatments. Trial Registration: PROSPERO No: CRD42013003721 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) and HIV are two worldwide public health concerns. Co-infection of these two diseases has been considered to be a major obstacle for the global efforts in reaching the goals for the prevention of HIV and TB. Method: A comprehensive cross-sectional study was conducted to recruit TB patients in three provinces (Guangxi, Henan and Sichuan) of China between April 1 and September 30, 2010. Results: A total of 1,032 consenting TB patients attended this survey during the study period. Among the participants, 3.30% were HIV positive; about one quarter had opportunistic infections. Nearly half of the participants were 50 years or older, the majority were male and about one third were from minority ethnic groups. After adjusting for site, gender and areas of residence (using the partial/selective Model 1), former commercial plasma donors (adjusted OR [aOR] = 33.71) and injecting drug users(aOR = 15.86) were found to have significantly higher risk of being HIV-positivity. In addition, having extramarital sexual relationship (aOR = 307.16), being engaged in commercial sex (aOR = 252.37), suffering from opportunistic infections in the past six months (aOR = 2.79), losing 10% or more of the body weight in the past six months (aOR = 5.90) and having abnormal chest X-ray findings (aOR = 20.40) were all significantly associated with HIV seropositivity (each p<0.05). Conclusions: HIV prevalence among TB patients was high in the study areas of China. To control the dual epidemic, intervention strategies targeting socio-demographic and behavioral factors associated with higher risk of TB-HIV co-infection are urgently called for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: China's one-child-per-couple policy, introduced in 1979, led to profound demographic changes for nearly a quarter of the world's population. Several decades later, the consequences include decreased fertility rates, population aging, decreased household sizes, changes in family structure, and imbalanced sex ratios. The epidemiology of communicable diseases may have been affected by these changes since the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases depend on demographic characteristics of the population. Of particular interest is influenza because China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of a global transmission network of influenza. Moreover, changes in household structure may affect influenza transmission. Is it possible that the pronounced demographic changes that have occurred in China have affected influenza transmission? Methods and Findings: To address this question, we developed a continuous-time, stochastic, individual-based simulation model for influenza transmission. With this model, we simulated 30 years of influenza transmission and compared influenza transmission rates in populations with and without the one-child policy control. We found that the average annual attack rate is reduced by 6.08% (SD 2.21%) in the presence of the one-child policy compared to a population in which no demographic changes occurred. There was no discernible difference in the secondary attack rate, −0.15% (SD 1.85%), between the populations with and without a one-child policy. We also forecasted influenza transmission over a ten-year time period in a population with a two-child policy under a hypothesis that a two-child-per-couple policy will be carried out in 2015, and found a negligible difference in the average annual attack rate compared to the population with the one-child policy. Conclusions: This study found that the average annual attack rate is slightly lowered in a population with a one-child policy, which may have resulted from a decrease in household size and the proportion of children in the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hepatitis E is caused by two viral genotype groups: human types and zoonotic types. Current understanding of the epidemiology of the zoonotic hepatitis E disease is founded largely on hospital-based studies. Methods: The epidemiology of hepatitis E was investigated in a community-based surveillance study conducted over one year in a rural city in eastern China with a registered population of 400,162. Results: The seroprevalence of hepatitis E in the cohort was 38%. The incidence of hepatitis E was 2.8/10,000 person-years. Totally 93.5% of the infections were attributed to genotype 4 and the rest, to genotype 1. Hepatitis E accounted for 28.4% (102/359) of the acute hepatitis cases and 68.9% (102/148) of the acute viral hepatitis cases in this area of China. The disease occurred sporadically with a higher prevalence during the cold season and in men, with the male-to-female ratio of 3∶1. Additionally, the incidence of hepatitis E increased with age. Hepatitis B virus carriers have an increased risk of contracting hepatitis E than the general population (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.5–4.2). Pre-existing immunity to hepatitis E lowered the risk (relative risk  = 0.34, 95% CI 0.21–0.55) and reduced the severity of the disease. Conclusions: Hepatitis E in the rural population of China is essentially that of a zoonosis due to the genotype 4 virus, the epidemiology of which is similar to that due to the other zoonotic genotype 3 virus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/Objective: Several studies have described the epidemiological distribution of blaOXA-58-harboring Acinetobacter baumannii in China. However, there is limited data concerning the replicon types of blaOXA-58-carrying plasmids and the genetic context surrounding blaOXA-58 in Acinetobacter spp. in China. Methodology/Principal Findings: Twelve non-duplicated blaOXA-58-harboring Acinetobacter spp. isolates were collected from six hospitals in five different cities between 2005 and 2010. The molecular epidemiology of the isolates was carried out using PFGE and multilocus sequence typing. Carbapenemase-encoding genes and plasmid replicase genes were identified by PCR. The genetic location of blaOXA-58 was analyzed using S1-nuclease method. Plasmid conjugation and electrotransformation were performed to evaluate the transferability of blaOXA-58-harboring plasmids. The genetic structure surrounding blaOXA-58 was determined by cloning experiments. The twelve isolates included two Acinetobacter pittii isolates (belong to one pulsotype), three Acinetobacter nosocomialis isolates (belong to two pulsotypes) and seven Acinetobacter baumannii isolates (belong to two pulsotypes/sequence types). A. baumannii ST91 was found to be a potential multidrug resistant risk clone carrying both blaOXA-58 and blaOXA-23. blaOXA-58 located on plasmids varied from ca. 52 kb to ca. 143 kb. All plasmids can be electrotransformed to A. baumannii recipient, but were untypeable by the current replicon typing scheme. A novel plasmid replicase named repAci10 was identified in blaOXA-58-harboring plasmids of two A. pittii isolates, three A. nosocomialis isolates and two A. baumannii isolates. Four kinds of genetic contexts of blaOXA-58 were identified. The transformants of plasmids with structure of IS6 family insertion sequence (ISOur1, IS1008 or IS15)-ΔISAba3-like element-blaOXA-58 displayed carbapenem nonsusceptible, while others with structure of intact ISAba3-like element-blaOXA-58 were carbapenem susceptible. Conclusion: The study revealed the unique features of blaOXA-58-carrying plasmids in Acinetobacter spp. in China, which were different from that of Acinetobacter spp. found in European countries. The diversity of the genetic contexts of blaOXA-58 contributed to various antibiotics resistance profiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To evaluate the effect of risk reduction interventions on HIV knowledge, attitudes and behaviors among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of HIV risk reduction intervention studies among Chinese MSM. The summary difference of standardized mean differences (SMD) between both study arms or between pre- and post-intervention assessments were defined as the effect size (ES); ES was calculated using standard meta-analysis in random effects models. Results: Thirty-four eligible studies were included in the analysis, including two randomized clinical trials (RCT), six quasi-experimental studies, six pre-and-post intervention studies, and twenty serial cross-sectional intervention studies. These studies showed an increase in consistent condom use with any male sexual partners (mean ES, 0.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.35–0.56), with regular sexual partners (mean ES, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.18–0.63), and casual sexual partners (mean ES, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.24–0.79). The analysis of ten studies that measured the impact on uptake of HIV testing also showed a positive result (mean ES, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.38–0.71). The risk reduction interventions also improved HIV/AIDS-related knowledge (mean ES, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60–0.94) and attitudes (mean ES, 1.35; 95% CI, 0.91–1.79), but did not reduce prevalence of HIV (mean ES, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.02–0.45) and syphilis infections (mean ES, −0.01; 95% CI, −0.19–0.17). There was significant heterogeneity among these studies. Conclusions: On aggregate, HIV risk reduction interventions were effective in reducing risky behaviors and improving knowledge and attitudes among Chinese MSM, but were not associated with a change in the prevalence of HIV and syphilis. Future studies should use incidence as definitive study outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Improvement of quality of life has been one of goals in health care for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). In China, the epidemic characteristics have changed and transmission is now most commonly sexual contact. However, the assessment of quality of life of PLWHA under new characteristics has limited reporting. This study was designed to assess the quality of life among PLWHA who contracted disease mainly via sexual contact and to clarify the associated factors. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed in Liaoning Province. Sample size (800) was calculated based on the fatality rate and enlarged with consideration on the loss of response. Participants were sampled by tables of random numbers among all registered PLWHA. Questionnaires pertaining to quality of life (SF-36) and related factors (demographic characteristics, social support and network, HIV/AIDS awareness, and behavior factors) were distributed during December 2010-April 2011. 783 effective responses were obtained. Results: The average scores of physical component summary (PCS), mental component summary (MCS), and total score (TS) were 66.8±21.9 (Mean±SD), 62.2±20.9, and 64.5±20.2. General linear model analysis revealed that, in standardized estimate (β) sequence, PCS was significantly associated with monthly income, perceived social support, antiretroviral therapy, transmission, and ethnicity; MCS was associated with perceived social support, antiretroviral therapy, condom use, monthly income, transmission, ethnicity, and alcohol consumption; whereas TS was associated with perceived social support, antiretroviral therapy, monthly income, transmission, condom use, and ethnicity. Conclusions: Quality of life for PLWHA who contracted HIV mainly via sexual contact was worse and both physical conditions and social integration were impacted. Under current epidemic characteristics, efforts to increase social support and enhance the implementation of supporting policy are necessary to improve the quality of life of PLWHA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few comprehensive studies have investigated viraemia caused by human parvoviruses (HPAVs) in China. A total of 1626 of blood samples were collected from non-HBV and HBV infected Chinese subjects (adults, N = 1279; children, N = 347) from south-western and south-eastern China. DNA from three HPAVs was detected in blood samples using PCR-based assays. The epidemiological profiles and association with HBV co-infection were also analysed. Of the 1626 blood samples tested, 138 (8.49%) were found to exhibit HPAV viraemia, including 3.51% with B19, 3.75% with HBoV and 2.52% with PARV4. The presence of B19 DNA in both child and adult, as well as that of PARV4 DNA in adult,from the south-western region was significantly higher than that from the south-eastern region (P = 0.006 for B19 in children; P = 0.026 for B19 in adults; and P = 0.014 for PARV4 in adult).However, the frequency of HBoV DNA in adults from the south-western region was significantly lower than that observed in adults from the south-eastern region (P = 0.001). Furthermore, HBoV was more prevalence in male (4.9%) than in female (1.4%) individuals. In addition, no significant correlation between HBV and HPAV co-infection was found using serum samples from Chinese adults. In conclusions,the molecular prevalence of three HPAVs in blood samples exhibited variation among different populations depending on area, age and gender; No association between HPAV and HBV infection in adults was found. Our data provide a basis for improving blood safety and preventing HPAV infection in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the risk factors of scrub typhus infection in Beijing, China, a case-control study was carried out. Cases (n = 56) were defined as persons who were diagnosed by PCR and serological method within three years. Three neighborhood control subjects were selected by matching for age and occupation. Living at the edge of the village, living in the houses near grassland, vegetable field or ditch, house yard without cement floor, piling weeds in the house or yard, all of these were risk factors for scrub typhus infection. Working in vegetable fields and hilly areas, and harvesting in autumn posed the highest risks, with odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 3.7 (1.1–11.9), 8.2 (1.4–49.5), and 17.2 (5.1–57.9), respectively. These results would be useful for the establishment of a detail control strategy for scrub typhus infection in Beijing, China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although anaplasmosis cases have been nationally identified in China, no human isolates of A. phagocytophilum have been obtained, which limits the analysis of any molecular and genetic contributions to patients' severe clinical manifestations and the study of the bacteria's pathogeneses in China. Given this situation, a joint project was conducted in 2009–2010. A total of 421 febrile cases of unknown etiology were collected and the patients' blood samples were collected for laboratory diagnoses including serologic diagnosis based on the four-fold rise in the anti- A. phagocytophilum IgG titer by indirect micro-immunofluorescence assay (IFA), positive PCR assay and confirmation of A. phagocytophilum DNA and positive culture of A. phagocytophilum and confirmed by amplification and sequencing of the 16S rRNA and ank A genes of the A. phagocytophilum isolates. A total of 570 ticks were collected from the patients' domestic animals (456) and from wild fields (114) for culturing and amplifying and sequencing the 16S rRNA gene of A. phagocytophilum. Phylogenetic analyses were performed on the 16S rRNA and ank A gene sequences of the isolates and the ticks tested in the study. A total of 46 (10.9%) confirmed and 16 (3.8%) probable cases were diagnosed and severe clinical features and higher mortality rates were observed in these Chinese patients. Five isolates were obtained and the 16S rRNA genes of the 5 isolates were conserved but variety for ank A genes. Two human isolates and 1 tick isolate from Shandong Peninsula, where all patients exhibited severe clinical manifestations, were grouped as one clan based on the phylogenetic analyses, while 2 other human isolates were clustered in a second clan. 43.5% of H. longicornis were infected with A. phagocytophilum.The present study is the first to obtain clinical isolates of A. phagocytophilum in China. The diversity of the ank A genes of Chinese isolates will help us to further discern the relationship between the variations in the ank A genes and the severity of the disease's clinical manifestations in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has posed a great threat to the health of children and become a public health priority in China. This study aims to investigate the epidemiological characteristics, spatial-temporal patterns, and risk factors of HFMD in Guangdong Province, China, and to provide scientific information for public health responses and interventions. Methods: HFMD surveillance data from May 2008 to December 2011were provided by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We firstly conducted a descriptive analysis to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of HFMD. Then, Kulldorff scan statistic based on a discrete Poisson model was used to detect spatial-temporal clusters. Finally, a spatial paneled model was applied to identify the risk factors. Results: A total of 641,318 HFMD cases were reported in Guangdong Province during the study period (total population incidence: 17.51 per 10,000). Male incidence was higher than female incidence for all age groups, and approximately 90% of the cases were children years old. Spatial-temporal cluster analysis detected four most likely clusters and several secondary clusters (P<0.001) with the maximum cluster size 50% and 20% respectively during 2008–2011. Monthly average temperature, relative humidity, the proportion of population years, male-to-female ratio, and total sunshine were demonstrated to be the risk factors for HFMD. Conclusion: Children years old, especially boys, were more susceptible to HFMD and we should take care of their vulnerability. Provincial capital city Guangzhou and the Pearl River Delta regions had always been the spatial-temporal clusters and future public health planning and resource allocation should be focused on these areas. Furthermore, our findings showed a strong association between HFMD and meteorological factors, which may assist in predicting HFMD incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 (2009 H1N1) re-circulated as the predominant virus from January through February 2011 in China. National surveillance of 2009 H1N1 as a notifiable disease was maintained to monitor potential changes in disease severity from the previous season. Methodology/Principal Findings: To describe the characteristics of hospitalized cases with 2009 H1N1 infection and analyze risk factors for severe illness during the 2010–2011winter season in China, we obtained surveillance data from hospitalized cases with 2009 H1N1 infection from November 2010 through May 2011, and reviewed medical records from 701 hospitalized cases. Age-standardized risk ratios were used to compare the age distribution of patients that were hospitalized and died due to 2009 H1N1 between the 2010–2011winter season to those during the 2009–2010 pandemic period. During the 2010–2011 winter season, children less than 5 years of age had the highest relative risk of hospitalization and death, followed by adults aged 65 years or older. Additionally, the relative risk of hospitalized cases aged 5–14 and 15–24 years was lower compared to children less than 5 years of age. During the winter season of 2010–2011, the proportions of adults aged 25 years or older for hospitalization and death were significantly higher than those during the 2009–2010 pandemic period. Being male, having a chronic medical condition, delayed hospital admission (≥3 days from onset) or delayed initiation of antiviral treatment (≥5 days from onset) were associated with severe illness among non-pregnant patients ≥2 years of age. Conclusions/Significance: We observed a change in high risk groups for hospitalization for 2009 H1N1 during the winter months immediately following the pandemic period compared to the high risk groups identified during the pandemic period. Our nationally notifiable disease surveillance system enabled us to understand the evolving epidemiology of 2009 H1N1 infection after the pandemic period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]