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A wealth of pre-Confederation weather and climate observations were recorded in Canada by individuals and institutions during both the French and British empires. This scientific heritage came about for a number of reasons. For instance, the Hudson's Bay Company wanted to reduce operating costs by having their posts in Canada's north-west become self-sufficient in agriculture. Others wished to save lives from cholera or shipwrecks, or to satisfy curiosity about the ever-present debate concerning anthropogenic climate change. Today, historical climate observations can be found in many diverse locations. Despite our rich scientific heritage, turning archival paper and ink observations into scientific data remains an enormous technical challenge. This challenge falls to our generation, both to use this heritage to investigate the historical context of current climate change and variability, and to use the digital resources in development today to safeguard our scientific heritage for future generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change’s causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent letter to Canada's national newspaper, The Globe and Mail, British columnist and climate change gadfly George Monbiot pleaded with Canada to clean up its greenhouse gas emissions act. The letter appeared just a week before the Copenhagen climate conference. In it, Monbiot alleged that Canada's newly acquired status as oil superpower threatens to 'brutalize' the country, as it has other oil-rich countries (Monbiot, G. 2009. Please, Canada, clean up your act, The Globe and Mail, November 30, A15). In this paper, I want to expand on Monbiot's bleak assessment of the Canadian national psyche. It has been pointed out that climate change is forcing us to rethink philosophical ethics. Some, like Dale Jamieson, believe that virtue theory is best equipped to meet the challenge of understanding the moral dimensions of this phenomenon. I think this is basically right, but that climate change is also forcing us to reassess our capacity for moral progress. The two challenges are linked. In what follows, I will first (Section 1) motivate the appeal to virtue ethics as a new way of understanding the ethics of climate change. Next (Section 2), I offer a virtue ethical account of moral progress. With the latter in place, we can (Section 3) uncover the real nature of Canada's moral failing on climate change: it is an impediment to the moral progress of our species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already occurring in the Arctic and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment recently concluded that future climate change could be devastating for Inuit. This paper characterises vulnerability to climate change in two Inuit communities in the Canadian territory of Nunavut, focusing on the resource harvesting sector. In both communities, Inuit have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of current changes in climatic conditions. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in resource use, and institutional support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities. Global and regional climate projections indicate that climatic conditions which currently pose risks are expected to be negatively affected by future climate change. These projections are not without precedent and analysis of current vulnerability and identification of adaptation constraints by Inuit in the two communities indicate the continued importance of traditional coping mechanisms. The ability to draw on these coping mechanisms in light of future climate change, however, will be unequal and the research indicates that young Inuit and those without access to economic resources, in particular, are vulnerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the literature on Indigenous health, human dimensions of climate change, and place-based dimensions of health by examining the role of environment for Inuit health in the context of a changing climate. We investigated the relationship between one key element of the environment – sea ice – and diverse aspects of health in an Inuit community in northern Canada, drawing on population health and health geography approaches. We used a case study design and participatory and collaborative approach with the community of Nain in northern Labrador, Canada. Focus groups (n = 2), interviews (n = 22), and participant observation were conducted in 2010–11. We found that an appreciation of place was critical for understanding the full range of health influences of sea ice use for Inuit. Negative physical health impacts were reported on less frequently than positive health benefits of sea ice use, which were predominantly related to mental/emotional, spiritual, social, and cultural health. We found that sea ice means freedom for sea ice users, which we suggest influences individual and collective health through relationships between sea ice use, culture, knowledge, and autonomy. While sea ice users reported increases in negative physical health impacts such as injuries and stress related to changing environmental conditions, we suggest that less tangible climate change impacts related to losses of health benefits and disruptions to place meanings and place attachment may be even more significant. Our findings indicate that climate change is resulting in and compounding existing environmental dispossession for Inuit. They also demonstrate the necessity of considering place meanings, culture, and socio-historical context to assess the complexity of climate change impacts on Indigenous environmental health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Short-duration precipitation extremes are widely used in the design of engineering infrastructure systems and they also lead to high impact flash flood events and landslides. Better understanding of these events in a changing climate is therefore critical. This study assesses characteristics of short-duration precipitation extremes of 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-h durations in terms of the precipitation-temperature (P–T) relationship in current and future climates for ten Canadian climatic regions using the limited area version of the global environment multiscale (GEM) model. The GEM simulations, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis and two coupled global climate models (CanESM2 and MPI-ESM), reproduce the general observed regional P–T relationship characteristics in current climate (1981–2010), such as sub-CC (Clausius–Clapeyron) and CC scalings for the coastal and northern, and inland regions, respectively, albeit with some underestimation. Analysis of the transient climate change simulations suggests important shifts and/or extensions of the P–T curve to higher temperature bins in future climate (2071–2100) for RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, particularly for 1-h duration. Analysis of the spatial patterns of dew point depression (temperature minus dew point temperature) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) corresponding to short-duration precipitation extremes for different temperature bins show their changing relative importance from low to high temperature bins. For the low-temperature bins, short-duration precipitation extremes are largely due to high relative humidity, while for high-temperature bins, strong convection due to atmospheric instability brought by surface warming is largely responsible. The analysis thus addresses some of the key knowledge gaps related to the behavior of P–T relationship and associated mechanisms for the Canadian regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Can better-functioning science-policy relationships (SPRs) address the seeming discrepancy between the scientific consensus on climate change and the insufficient ensuing policy outcomes? Certain scholarly works on science-policy interfaces and evidence-based policy are optimistic, while the literature on research utilization is pessimistic. The field of science, technology, and society and the concept of co-production advance a broader view, suggesting that more holistic (i.e., institutional or systemic) changes may offer a way forward. This article synthesizes causal claims from such literatures into an analytical framework of potential pathways from co-productive SPR characteristics to policy action. It then investigates, through expert interviews, three climate SPRs in Canada: a municipal-level case between the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium and local communities, a provincial-level case between the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions and the Climate Action Secretariat, and a national-level case between the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences and the federal government. In light of the analytical framework, the cases suggest a theoretical hierarchy of function for SPRs: incidental interaction (at the bottom), basic partnership, interactive dialogue, and true co-production (at the top), each of which can be coupled with a supplementary network (to the side). This template is presented as the Science-Policy Relationship Hierarchy model. Collectively, the cases and the model reveal causal pathways that may explain why any given SPR ends up functioning the way it does (e.g., external political conditions are important), implying prescriptions for improvement. Besides the analytical framework and model, the main contribution is the finding that co-productive strategies are unlikely to lead to concrete policy changes on their own, but are crucial for cultivating soft policy influences and side benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerald Basin on the Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, Canada, is home to a globally unique aggregation of the glass sponge Vazella pourtalesi, first documented in the region in 1889. In 2009, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) implemented two Sponge Conservation Areas to protect these sponge grounds from bottom fishing activities. Together, the two conservation areas encompass 259 km2. In order to ascertain the degree to which the sponge grounds remain unprotected, we modelled the presence probability and predicted range distribution of V. pourtalesi on the Scotian Shelf using random forest modelling on presence-absence records. With a high degree of accuracy the random forest model predicted the highest probability of occurrence of V. pourtalesi in the inner basins on the central Scotian Shelf, with lower probabilities at the shelf break and in the Fundian and Northeast Channels. Bottom temperature was the most important determinant of its distribution in the model. Although the two DFO Sponge Conservation Areas protect some of the more significant concentrations of V. pourtalesi, much of its predicted distribution remains unprotected (over 99%). Examination of the hydrographic conditions in Emerald Basin revealed that the V. pourtalesi sponge grounds are associated with a warmer and more saline water mass compared to the surrounding shelf. Reconstruction of historical bottom temperature and salinity in Emerald Basin revealed strong multi-decadal variability, with average bottom temperatures varying by 8°C. We show that this species has persisted in the face of this climatic variability, possibly indicating how it will respond to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980–2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980–2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results from diagnostic analyses to understand the seasonal evolution of the large-scale climatic state responsible for the development and melt of the winter snowpack, and spring–early summer precipitation in the Churchill Falls region on the Québec-Labrador Peninsula, Canada, are presented in the context of the development of an empirical model for seasonal to annual streamflow forecasting, with a special emphasis on the May–July spring freshet. Teleconnection indices and gridded global measures of atmospheric circulation inferred from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis are used as climatic indicators. Composite and correlation analyses are applied to the climatic indicators conditioned on the spring streamflow for identification of potential predictors. Meridional and zonal atmospheric fluxes over the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans emanating from regionally persistent sea surface temperature/sea level pressure modes are identified as potential carriers of information. We speculate on the ocean-atmosphere and regional hydrologic mechanisms that may be involved in lending multiseasonal predictability to streamflows in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in late Neoglaical climate resulted in extensive modification of Arctic terrestrial ice cover. A substantial reduction in terrestrial ice cover in the Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI) following the 'Little Ice Age' (LIA) (~AD 1250-1900), is indicated by widespread, light-toned patches of poorly vegetated terrain, extending back to the modern ice mass. These patches display abrupt outer margins (trimlines), which record the former position and maximum extent of perennial snow/ice and, in many cases, mark the former equilibrium-line altitude (ELA). Trimlines surrounding terrain formerly covered by LIA perennial snow/ice were mapped using multispectral classification approaches applied to high-resolution satellite imagery. ELAs were reconstructed from trimlines associated with former perennial snow/ice produced by long-term snowline lowering. Between the end of the LIA and 1960, the area of terrestrial ice in the QEI decreased by 37% (62 387 km2). Most of this reduction (94%) occurred in the eastern QEI where the majority of the ice exists today; however, a 100% reduction in ice cover occurred on many of the western islands by 1960, an effect largely controlled by the subtle topography of these islands. The reconstructed LIA ELA trend surface was used with the 1960 mapped ELAs to calculate spatial variations in the change in height (Δh) of the ELA trend surface throughout the QEI during the first half of the twentieth century. ELA Δh between the LIA and 1960 reveal a high degree of local variability in the mountainous regions, ranging from 0 to >600 m; however a strong regional-scale pattern of change is shown over the QEI as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most significant anticipated consequences of global climate change is the increased frequency of hydrologic extremes. Predictions of climate change impacts on the regime of hydrologic extremes have traditionally been conducted using a top-down approach. The top-down approach involves a high degree of uncertainty associated with global circulation model (GCM) outputs and the choice of downscaling technique. This study attempts to explore an inverse approach to the modelling of hydrologic risk and vulnerability to changing climatic conditions. With a focus targeted at end-users, the proposed approach first identifies critical hydrologic exposures that may lead to local failures of existing water resources systems. A hydrologic model is used to transform inversely the main hydrologic exposures, such as floods and droughts, into corresponding meteorological conditions. The frequency of critical meteorological situations is investigated under present and future climatic scenarios by means of a generic weather generator. The weather generator, linked with GCMs at the last step of the proposed methodology, allows the creation of au ensemble of different scenarios, as well as an easy updating, when new and improved GCM outputs become available. The technique has been applied in Ontario, Canada. The results show significant changes in the frequency of hydro-climatic extremes under future climate scenarios in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intention of this research was to explore whether dendroclimatological relationships could be used to reconstruct long-term proxy records of 'Little Ice Age' glacier mass balance changes in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia. Tree-ring width chronologies from the Mt Waddington area were used in concert with historical glacier records to construct models spanning the past 450 years. The approach was to build models that were based on derived relationships between tree-ring growth and glacier mass balance: (1) warmer temperatures in the summer positively influence tree growth but are detrimental to glacier health; (2) colder temperatures during the winter and deeper snowpack have a negative impact on tree growth, whereas they are related to greater accumulation on the glacier during the winter season. Stepwise regression analyses were applied to tree-ring chronologies to predict glacier mass balance at local and regional scales. The models of net annual balance for the region (regional data set) show that periods of positive mass balance occurred in the AD 1750s, 1820s to 1830s and 1970s. Peaks of winter balance correspond closely to these periods, showing a sharp drop in winter mass balance towards the end of the nineteenth century. Wavelet analyses suggest that glacial mass balance regimes in the region respond synchronously to Pacific Ocean circulation systems such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents examples of environmental changes in the Canadian Rockies in the context of a 1.5 deg. C increase in mean annual temperatures over the last 100 years. During this period increases in winter temperatures have been more than twice as large as those during spring and summer. Glacier cover has decreased by at least 25% during the present century and glacier fronts have receded to positions lastoccupied ca. 3000 years ago. These two lines of evidence suggest that the climate of the late 20th century is exceptional in the context of the last 1000 to 3000 years. Detailed studies in three closely located upper treeline sites document variable responses of vegetation to climate change that reflect species differences as well as local differences in microclimate and site conditions. Treeline has advanced upslope in response to climate warming, but site and species differences control the rate and nature of the advance. Human impacts on the environment compound the changes due to climate warming. Historic photographs indicate significant changes in the type and density of forest cover due to the absence of significant forest fires within these National Parks during the last 70-80 years. The visual impact of these changes, which partially reflects a policy of fire suppression, is far greater than the impact of changes associated with more direct tourist-related impacts. It is therefore important that monitoring programs examine vegetation changes over the entire landscape rather thanfocusing exclusively on supposedly climate-sensitive sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sedimentary basins are suitable to different degrees for CO2 geological sequestration as a result of various intrinsic and extrinsic characteristics, of which the geothermal regime is one of the most important. Warm basins are less favorable for CO2 sequestration than cold basins because of reduced capacity in terms of CO2 mass, and because of higher CO2 buoyancy, which drives the upward CO2 migration. A set of 15 criteria, with several classes each, has been developed for the assessment and ranking of sedimentary basins in terms of their suitability for CO2 sequestration. Using a parametric normalization procedure, a basin's individual scores are summed to a total score using weights that express the relative importance of different criteria. The total score is ranked to determine the most suitable basin or region thereof for the geological sequestration of CO2. The method is extremely flexible in that it allows changes in the functions that express the importance of various classes for any given criterion, and in the weights that express the relative importance of various criteria. Examples of application are given for Canada's case and for the Alberta basin in Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated for Canada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonal temperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050 and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems and people. Important, widespread changes relate to marine and freshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern and upward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combined East coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosion and deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic uplift negates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individual parks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migrate lakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroy the fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. For example: we could not form conclusions about glacial mass balance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for the East Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]