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China has proposed ambitious goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and will pay more attention to the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions. It's significant to assess the current environmental decoupling and prospect the future conditions in China. This article studies the decoupling status and influencing factors in Chinese provinces from 1996 to 2018 through Tapio decoupling index and decomposition model. The results show that most provinces are currently in a weak decoupling state. The growth of per capita GDP and population will affect the process of strong decoupling, while the optimization of energy intensity, energy structure and industrial structure will promote the realization of strong decoupling. Moreover, this paper prospects the decoupling scenarios of Chinese provinces from 2019 to 2035 and finds that all provinces will achieve strong decoupling before 2040, 2035 and 2030 under different carbon emissions scenarios respectively. To achieve the strong decoupling of economic output and carbon emissions as soon as possible, the government must improve energy efficiency, use renewable energy in large quantities, and promote the industrial transformation and upgrading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The debate over the role of fiscal decentralization and industrial structure upgrading in China's environmental governance has received increasing attention. Based on China's provincial panel data from 2003 to 2019, this paper investigates the impact of fiscal decentralization and industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions to provide empirical evidence for the above theoretical argument. The results show that fiscal decentralization and industrial structure upgrading are negatively correlated with carbon emissions, while the interaction term for fiscal decentralization with industrial structure upgrading presents a facilitating effect on carbon emissions. Besides, fiscal decentralization, industrial structure upgrading, and the interaction term have significant regional heterogeneity on carbon emissions. When fiscal decentralization and industrial structure upgrading are taken as threshold variables, the effects of industrial structure upgrading and fiscal decentralization are significantly nonlinear. Moreover, environmental regulation, transportation infrastructure, and carbon emissions are positively correlated. There exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, which proves environmental Kuznets curve theorem. However, FDI and urbanization have no significant effect on carbon emissions. According to the above conclusions, it is necessary to strengthen the positive interaction between fiscal decentralization and industrial structure upgrading in mitigating carbon emissions, promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of China's economy, thus realizing the goals of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's declaration to the international community to peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 is of great significance in advancing the objectives of the Paris Agreement, and has a positive and far-reaching impact on China's high-quality development. This paper expounds on responsibilities and ambitions in tackling climate change, analyzes the high-quality development opportunities brought about by CO2 emissions peak and carbon neutrality, and discusses the net zero carbon emissions transformation in the new era of ecological civilization. This paper is of the view that development towards net zero carbon emissions provides a new impetus for building a Beautiful China, and promoting ecological civilization and green development. The essence of carbon neutrality should be correctly understood so that the world will work together to improve climate resilience. China should also deepen the understanding of the principles and methodologies of climate change economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past four decades, China's extensive economic growth mode has led to substantial greenhouse gas emissions, and China has become the world's largest emitter since 2009. In order to alleviate the dual pressures from international climate negotiations and domestic environmental degradation, the Chinese government has pronounced it will reach its emission peak before 2030. However, through analyzing 12 scenarios, we found that it will be very difficult to meet this ambitious goal under the current widely used policies. With the trial implementation of China's carbon emission trading system (ETS), concerns arise over whether national ETS can accelerate the carbon peak process. In this paper, we propose a new proactive data envelopment analysis approach to investigate the impacts of national carbon ETS on carbon peak. Several important results are obtained. For example, we find that carbon ETS has a significant accelerating effect on carbon peak, which effect will advance the carbon peak by one to 2 years, and the corresponding peak values are reduced by 2.71–3 Gt. In addition, the setting of carbon price in the current Chinese pilot carbon market is found to be overly conservative. Last, our estimation on the carbon trading volume indicates that the ETS lacks vitality as the annual average carbon trading volume only represents approximately 4.3% of the total average carbon emissions. Based on these findings, several policy implications are suggested regarding the means by which China can more smoothly peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and implement national carbon ETS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission trading is not only a market-based instrument but also one of the government's macro-policies, which is extremely crucial to fulfilling both carbon peak attainment and carbon neutrality goals. For this purpose, this paper adopts a 30-region dataset for the period from 2008 to 2020 in China and employs the difference-in-difference (DID) method to quantify the effect of the carbon emission trading pilot policy (CETP) on carbon emissions on the basis of introducing industrial structure upgrading and green technology innovation as moderating variables. The results show that (1) CETP has a statistically significant dampening effect on carbon emissions, while its carbon emission reduction effect follows a significant strengthening trend as the policy year of CETP implementation is delayed. (2) CETP has a significant carbon emission reduction effect. However, its effect demonstrates a gradual decrease from the eastern to the central and finally to the western regions. (3) CETP can inhibit carbon emissions depending on industrial structure upgrading to a certain extent, and this dependence is significant in the national and eastern regions but not in the central and western regions. (4) CETP's carbon emission reduction effect is dependent on green technology innovation, which is only revealed in the western region and performs as a dampening effect in the national, eastern, and central regions, but not significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As major strategic development areas in China, the provinces around the Yangtze River are facing the pressure of large aggregate CO 2 emissions and high per capita CO 2 emissions. The study on the pathway of reducing CO 2 emissions and increasing carbon sequestration will help China better clarify the ways realize the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality as soon as possible. In this paper, the extended STIRPAT model and OLS regression were used to establish a prediction model to estimate the CO 2 emissions during 2010–2060 under different scenarios. Meanwhile, the InVEST model was used to estimate the carbon sequestration, and the comparison with the CO 2 emissions was analyzed. The results show that Qinghai and Yunnan have achieved the goal of carbon neutrality in 2010. Under the low-carbon and energy-saving scenario and the baseline scenario, all provinces within the study area are anticipated to attain their emissions peak by 2030 or earlier, and the CO 2 emissions peak value of the whole study area is 3111 Mt and 3199 Mt, respectively. While under the high emissions scenario, only Chongqing and Qinghai will reach the emissions peak in 2030, and the whole study area will reach the emissions peak in 2040, with peak value of 3470 Mt. Under the three scenarios, the whole study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Only Sichuan and Hubei can achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 and 2060 under the low-carbon and energy-saving scenario. All provinces and municipalities in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River are facing huge pressure of emissions reduction. The research reveals that the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality should be achieved by developing clean energy, transforming industrial structure, increasing carbon sequestration and improving carbon emissions trading system. [Display omitted] • The CO 2 emissions showed a pattern of increase during 2010–2020. • The whole study area will achieve carbon peak by 2040 or earlier. • The whole study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. • The realization pathway of carbon peak and neutrality was proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] To achieve carbon neutrality, it is urgent to quantify carbon emissions to support policy deployment. Based on life cycle assessment, this paper proposed calculation method for carbon emissions from road infrastructure in a Demonstration Zone, China. Based on scenario analysis, this paper quantified the carbon emissions currently and analyzed the trend and characteristics of carbon emissions of road infrastructure from 2020 to 2060 through 4 scenarios. The results show the carbon emissions fluctuate between 20 kt and 540 kt CO 2 from 2013 to 2019 and increase significantly in 2014 due to the surge in road mileage. In the first three scenarios, the carbon emissions show an increasing trend after 2030, with annual growth rates of 1.12%, 0.57%, and 0.27% respectively. However, in the optimal scenario, the peak year of carbon emissions is 2024, with the peak emissions of 649.333 kt CO 2 and an increase of 245% over the base year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper analyzes China's challenges toward carbon neutrality (CN) by 2060. • Currently, up to 85% of China's energy consumption relies on fossil fuels. • China's zero-carbon technologies and economy are not yet sufficient for CN. • Thus, we propose a three-stage/four-step strategy for China to achieve CN. • This paper also presents seven suggestions to foster China's green transition. In response to climate change, the Chinese government has set a clear goal to reach its carbon peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, endeavoring to gradually realize net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. This paper explores the concept of carbon neutrality and makes a comparative analysis of the gap between China, the European Union, and the United States vis-à-vis carbon neutrality based on international data. The main challenges China faces in its progress toward carbon neutrality are the following: first, China's energy consumption and CO 2 emissions continue to increase, while its carbon peak has not yet been reached; second, carbon emission reduction in China is an arduous process, as the transition period allowed for the country to transition from its carbon peak to carbon neutrality is shorter than that of developed countries; third, China remains reliant on high-carbon fossil energy, with high energy consumption and low energy utilization efficiency; fourth, China's low level of economic development, compared with those of the EU, the US, or other developed countries, makes it relatively weak to withstand economic risks; and fifth, China's low-carbon and zero-carbon technologies are not mature. Therefore, this paper posits a three-stage/four-step strategy as well as seven specific suggestions that could benefit China's progress toward carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is currently recognized as the leading global energy consumer and CO2 emitter. A significant amount of carbon emissions can be attributed to urban public buildings. Establishing an equitable and efficient carbon emission allocation mechanism is a crucial step to meeting the ambitious targets in China's 2030 carbon peak plan. In this study, we estimate the total amount of CO2 emissions from urban public buildings by 2030 and propose a preliminary scheme of carbon quota assignment for each province. By means of applying the zero-sum gains data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) model, the carbon emission quotas allocation of urban public buildings in China's 30 provinces is proposed, and the corresponding pressure to reduce provincial carbon emissions is analyzed. The results indicate that Qinghai has the lowest carbon emission rate (0.01%) for urban public buildings, while Guangdong has the highest (9.06%). Among the provinces, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Tianjin face the least pressure in reducing carbon emissions from urban public buildings. On the other hand, Hebei, Beijing, and Anhui are under great pressure to decrease carbon emissions. Notably, Hebei is predicted to have the highest emission reduction requirement of 95.66 million tons. In terms of pressures on carbon emissions reduction for urban public buildings, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Tianjin exhibit the least pressure. Hebei, Beijing, and Anhui are facing intense pressure to decrease carbon emissions. These findings offer policymakers valuable insights into developing a fair and efficient carbon allowance allocation strategy, while also contributing to China's efforts to mitigate carbon emissions and combat climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate is warming up and climate disasters occur more frequently, China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets are gaining attention, with provinces starting to set carbon peak targets and constantly exploring low carbon economic development opportunities. However, the existing evaluation index system mainly focuses on low carbon cities and green cities, and there is no evaluation index system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality. This study adopts a combination of theoretical and empirical research and draws on domestic and international research results to construct the first index system for evaluating China's provincial carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The evaluation index system includes 18 indicators from three dimensions: climate ambition, low carbon status, and emissions trends. Using this index system, we calculated the carbon peak and carbon neutrality indices of 30 Chinese provinces. Further, the 30 provinces were classified into six categories, and corresponding policy recommendations for achieving the "Dual carbon" targets were put forward. The evaluation index system constructed in this paper can provide a reference for future carbon peak and carbon neutrality assessments. By disclosing the integrated index of each province, we hope to effectively curb the increasing local carbon emissions; avert inaction in areas with good natural endowments; and motivate the advancement of the latter, to boost the implementation of the "Dual carbon" targets coherently for the whole country. [Display omitted] • An integrated evaluation system on China's Provincial "Dual carbon" was proposed. • 30 provinces in mainland China were ranked based on the integrated index. • 6 groups were classified to show provincial differences on dual carbon performance. • Policy recommendations to fulfill China's climate commitment were put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To solve the problem of rising energy use and CO2 emissions, China issued the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2020, emphasizing the need to reduce its carbon intensity and achieve a carbon emission peak before 2030. In order to estimate the future path of carbon peak in China, a novel dataset was constructed to analyze 30 provinces in China, and found that the realization of carbon peaking in 2025 requires a reduction of 1.072 million tons of carbon emissions in 2025, at which point peak carbon emissions will be 11,008.4 million tons. Due to this energy gap caused by carbon emission reduction the total amount of clean electricity has reached 3600 billion kWh. In carbon emission allowance trading, provinces with large carbon emissions, like Jiangsu and Guangdong, prefer to buy carbon allowances, while those with small carbon emissions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia prefer to sell carbon allowances. In the energy trading market, the overall situation meets the 14th Five-Year Plan of west-east and north-south power transmission, except for Shanghai, Hainan, Hubei, and other provinces selling power, due to excessive power generation from a particular energy source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]