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China has made remarkable achievements in reducing carbon emissions in recent years. However, there is still much reduction room before achieving carbon neutrality. In Beijing, the capital of China, it is a strategic choice to respond to global climate change by promoting green and low-carbon development. This paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of key industries in Beijing and analyzes the temporal evolution trend of carbon emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions in Beijing before 2030 are predicted based on the grey prediction GM (1,1) and BP neural network model. The effects of factors of carbon dioxide emissions are discussed using the threshold regression model under different economic conditions. The results show that energy consumption intensity, GDP per capita, and the ownership of civil cars have a positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions, while the number of permanent residents and urban green space areas have a negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions. These findings of carbon emission prediction and influencing factors contribute to carbon reduction path design. Related policy implications on carbon emission reduction are put forward from the aspects of promoting industrial upgrading, accelerating the construction of advanced economic structures, optimizing transportation structures, and strengthening green building development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the impact of political uncertainty on sustainable urban development by examining carbon emission trading systems (ETS) in four major markets in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Hubei) from 2014 to 2022. As an alternative to carbon taxes, carbon ETS markets have become increasingly popular due to their success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, their effectiveness is often hindered by political instability and uncertainty. Utilising logistic regression and AR(1)-GARCH estimations, we identify a negative relationship between political uncertainty and carbon trading volume. Our study also reveals significant variations in the responses of these markets to political uncertainty. The paper contributes to the understanding of how ETS markets operate in a complex and constantly changing political environment. We suggest that policymakers need to consider the impact of political uncertainty on carbon trading when designing and implementing urban policies that promote sustainable development. Additionally, our research contributes to the development of urban policies that can be effectively implemented in both developed and developing regions. • Local government official turnovers are used as the measurement of political uncertainty. • Daily transaction data from four carbon ETS markets (Beijing, Shanghai, Hubei and Guangdong) in China • Considered the probability and proportion of zero transaction day • Logistic regression and AR(1)-GARCH estimations • A negative relationship between political uncertainty and carbon transaction volume [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate is warming up and climate disasters occur more frequently, China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets are gaining attention, with provinces starting to set carbon peak targets and constantly exploring low carbon economic development opportunities. However, the existing evaluation index system mainly focuses on low carbon cities and green cities, and there is no evaluation index system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality. This study adopts a combination of theoretical and empirical research and draws on domestic and international research results to construct the first index system for evaluating China's provincial carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The evaluation index system includes 18 indicators from three dimensions: climate ambition, low carbon status, and emissions trends. Using this index system, we calculated the carbon peak and carbon neutrality indices of 30 Chinese provinces. Further, the 30 provinces were classified into six categories, and corresponding policy recommendations for achieving the "Dual carbon" targets were put forward. The evaluation index system constructed in this paper can provide a reference for future carbon peak and carbon neutrality assessments. By disclosing the integrated index of each province, we hope to effectively curb the increasing local carbon emissions; avert inaction in areas with good natural endowments; and motivate the advancement of the latter, to boost the implementation of the "Dual carbon" targets coherently for the whole country. [Display omitted] • An integrated evaluation system on China's Provincial "Dual carbon" was proposed. • 30 provinces in mainland China were ranked based on the integrated index. • 6 groups were classified to show provincial differences on dual carbon performance. • Policy recommendations to fulfill China's climate commitment were put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]