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Dispersal knowledge is essential for conservation management, and demand is growing. But are we accumulating dispersal knowledge at a pace that can meet the demand? To answer this question we tested for changes in dispersal data collection and use over time. Our systematic review of 655 conservation-related publications compared five topics: climate change, habitat restoration, population viability analysis, land planning (systematic conservation planning) and invasive species. We analysed temporal changes in the: (i) questions asked by dispersal-related research; (ii) methods used to study dispersal; (iii) the quality of dispersal data; (iv) extent that dispersal knowledge is lacking, and; (v) likely consequences of limited dispersal knowledge. Research questions have changed little over time; the same problems examined in the 1990s are still being addressed. The most common methods used to study dispersal were occupancy data, expert opinion and modelling, which often provided indirect, low quality information about dispersal. Although use of genetics for estimating dispersal has increased, new ecological and genetic methods for measuring dispersal are not yet widely adopted. Almost half of the papers identified knowledge gaps related to dispersal. Limited dispersal knowledge often made it impossible to discover ecological processes or compromised conservation outcomes. The quality of dispersal data used in climate change research has increased since the 1990s. In comparison, restoration ecology inadequately addresses large-scale process, whilst the gap between knowledge accumulation and growth in applications may be increasing in land planning. To overcome apparent stagnation in collection and use of dispersal knowledge, researchers need to: (i) improve the quality of available data using new approaches; (ii) understand the complementarities of different methods and; (iii) define the value of different kinds of dispersal information for supporting management decisions. Ambitious, multi-disciplinary research programs studying many species are critical for advancing dispersal research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local and indigenous knowledge is being transformed globally, particularly being eroded when pertaining to ecology. In many parts of the world, rural and indigenous communities are facing tremendous cultural, economic and environmental changes, which contribute to weaken their local knowledge base. In the face of profound and ongoing environmental changes, both cultural and biological diversity are likely to be severely impacted as well as local resilience capacities from this loss. In this global literature review, we analyse the drivers of various types of local and indigenous ecological knowledge transformation and assess the directionality of the reported change. Results of this analysis show a global impoverishment of local and indigenous knowledge with 77% of papers reporting the loss of knowledge driven by globalization, modernization, and market integration. The recording of this loss, however, is not symmetrical, with losses being recorded more strongly in medicinal and ethnobotanical knowledge. Persistence of knowledge (15% of the studies) occurred in studies where traditional practices were being maintained consiously and where hybrid knowledge was being produced as a resut of certain types of incentives created by economic development. This review provides some insights into local and indigenous ecological knowledge change, its causes and implications, and recommends venues for the development of replicable and comparative research. The larger implication of these results is that because of the interconnection between cultural and biological diversity, the loss of local and indigenous knowledge is likely to critically threaten effective conservation of biodiversity, particularly in community-based conservation local efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peer-reviewed publications focusing on climate change are growing exponentially with the consequence that the uptake and influence of individual papers varies greatly. Here, we derive metrics of narrativity from psychology and literary theory, and use these metrics to test the hypothesis that more narrative climate change writing is more likely to be influential, using citation frequency as a proxy for influence. From a sample of 732 scientific abstracts drawn from the climate change literature, we find that articles with more narrative abstracts are cited more often. This effect is closely associated with journal identity: higher-impact journals tend to feature more narrative articles, and these articles tend to be cited more often. These results suggest that writing in a more narrative style increases the uptake and influence of articles in climate literature, and perhaps in scientific literature more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although substantial attention has focused on efforts by the new Administration to block environmental policies, climate politics have been contentious in the US since well before the election of Donald Trump. In this paper, we extend previous work on empirical examinations of echo chambers in US climate politics using new data collected on the federal climate policy network in summer 2016. We test for the similarity and differences at two points in time in homophily and echo chambers using Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) to compare new findings from 2016 to previous work on data from 2010. We show that echo chambers continue to play a significant role in the network of information exchange among policy elites working on the issue of climate change. In contrast to previous findings where echo chambers centered on a binding international commitment to emission reductions, we find that the pre-existing echo chambers have almost completely disappeared and new structures have formed around one of the main components of the Obama Administration’s national climate policy: the Clean Power Plan. These results provide empirical evidence that science communication and policymaking at the elite level shift in relation to the policy instruments under consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In traditional public good experiments participants receive an endowment from the experimenter that can be invested in a public good or kept in a private account. In this paper we present an experimental environment where participants can invest time during five days to contribute to a public good. Participants can make contributions to a linear public good by logging into a web application and performing virtual actions. We compared four treatments, with different group sizes and information of (relative) performance of other groups. We find that information feedback about performance of other groups has a small positive effect if we control for various attributes of the groups. Moreover, we find a significant effect of the contributions of others in the group in the previous day on the number of points earned in the current day. Our results confirm that people participate more when participants in their group participate more, and are influenced by information about the relative performance of other groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies in the marketing literature developed a new method for eliciting willingness to pay (WTP) with an open-ended elicitation format: the Range-WTP method. In contrast to the traditional approach of eliciting WTP as a single value (Point-WTP), Range-WTP explicitly allows for preference uncertainty in responses. The aim of this paper is to apply Range-WTP to the domain of contingent valuation and to test for its theoretical validity and robustness in comparison to the Point-WTP. Using data from two novel large-scale surveys on the perception of solar radiation management (SRM), a little-known technique for counteracting climate change, we compare the performance of both methods in the field. In addition to the theoretical validity (i.e. the degree to which WTP values are consistent with theoretical expectations), we analyse the test-retest reliability and stability of our results over time. Our evidence suggests that the Range-WTP method clearly outperforms the Point-WTP method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explores the degree to which exposure to natural disasters and poor governance (quality of governance) is associated with absolute child poverty in sixty-seven middle- and low-income countries. The data is representative for about 2.8 billion of the world´s population. Institutionalist tend to argue that many of society’s ills, including poverty, derive from fragile or inefficient institutions. However, our findings show that although increasing quality of government tends to be associated with less poverty, the negative effects of natural disasters on child poverty are independent of a country´s institutional efficiency. Increasing disaster victims (killed and affected) is associated with higher rates of child poverty. A child´s estimated odds ratio to be in a state of absolute poverty increases by about a factor of 5.7 [95% CI: 1.7 to 18.7] when the average yearly toll of disasters in the child´s country increases by one on a log-10 scale. Better governance correlates with less child poverty, but it does not modify the correlation between child poverty and natural disasters. The results are based on hierarchical regression models that partition the variance into three parts: child, household, and country. The models were cross-sectional and based on observational data from the Demographic Health Survey and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, which were collected at the beginning of the twenty-first millennium. The Sustainable Development Goals are a principle declaration to halt climate change, but they lack a clear plan on how the burden of this change should be shared by the global community. Based on our results, we suggest that the development agencies should take this into account and to articulate more equitable global policies to protect the most vulnerable, specifically children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce a scalable machine learning approach accompanied by open-source software for identifying violent and peaceful forms of political protest participation using social media data. While violent political protests are statistically rare events, they often shape public perceptions of political and social movements. This is, in part, due to the extensive and disproportionate media coverage which violent protest participation receives relative to peaceful protest participation. In the past, when a small number of media conglomerates served as the primary information source for learning about political and social movements, viewership and advertiser demands encouraged news organizations to focus on violent forms of political protest participation. Consequently, much of our knowledge about political protest participation is derived from data collected about violent protests, while less is known about peaceful forms of protest. Since the early 2000s, the digital revolution shifted attention away from traditional news sources toward social media as a primary source of information about current events. This, along with developments in machine learning which allow us to collect and analyze data relevant to political participation, present us with unique opportunities to expand our knowledge of peaceful and violent forms of political protest participation through social media data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Holocene climate variability in the Mediterranean Basin is often cited as a potential driver of societal change, but the mechanisms of this putative influence are generally little explored. In this paper we integrate two tools–agro-ecosystem modeling of potential agricultural yields and spatial analysis of archaeological settlement pattern data–in order to examine the human consequences of past climatic changes. Focusing on a case study in Provence (France), we adapt an agro-ecosystem model to the modeling of potential agricultural productivity during the Holocene. Calibrating this model for past crops and agricultural practices and using a downscaling approach to produce high spatiotemporal resolution paleoclimate data from a Mediterranean Holocene climate reconstruction, we estimate realistic potential agricultural yields under past climatic conditions. These serve as the basis for spatial analysis of archaeological settlement patterns, in which we examine the changing relationship over time between agricultural productivity and settlement location. Using potential agricultural productivity (PAgP) as a measure of the human consequences of climate changes, we focus on the relative magnitudes of 1) climate-driven shifts in PAgP and 2) the potential increases in productivity realizable through agricultural intensification. Together these offer a means of assessing the scale and mechanisms of the vulnerability and resilience of Holocene inhabitants of Provence to climate change. Our results suggest that settlement patterns were closely tied to PAgP throughout most of the Holocene, with the notable exception of the period from the Middle Bronze Age through the Early Iron Age. This pattern does not appear to be linked to any climatically-driven changes in PAgP, and conversely the most salient changes in PAgP during the Holocene cannot be clearly linked to any changes in settlement pattern. We argue that this constitutes evidence that vulnerability and resilience to climate change are strongly dependent on societal variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the 2016 Paris Agreement is in many ways an important attainment with the potential to represent a milestone in humanity’s path towards sustainable development, and avoid thus a potential calamitous and destructive future, the achievement of the goals set in the agreement is a long way off. This paper investigates one of the most important worldwide hurdles frustrating the implementation of the policies required to limit environmental degradation and limit pollution, namely the still insufficient public support for the necessary environmental policies and their associated cost. Using a comparative database generated through an experimental study on tax compliance and policy preferences run in five countries (USA, UK, Italy, Sweden and Romania), I will evaluate five explanatory models of the degree to which people support environmentally friendly policies by accepting higher tax burdens and increased collective solidarity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers new high-resolution oxygen and carbon isotope data from Stalagmite S1 from Mavri Trypa Cave, SW Peloponnese. Our data provide the climate background to the destruction of the nearby Mycenaean Palace of Nestor at Pylos at the transition from Late Helladic (LH) IIIB to LH IIIC, ~3150–3130 years before present (before AD 1950, hereafter yrs BP) and the subsequent period. S1 is dated by 24 U-Th dates with an averaged precision of ±26 yrs (2σ), providing one of the most robust paleoclimate records from the eastern Mediterranean for the end of the Late Bronze Age (LBA). The δ18O record shows generally wetter conditions at the time when the Palace of Nestor at Pylos was destroyed, but a brief period of drier conditions around 3200 yrs BP may have disrupted the Mycenaean agricultural system that at the time was likely operating close to its limit. Gradually developing aridity after 3150 yrs BP, i.e. subsequent to the destruction, probably reduced crop yields and helped to erode the basis for the reinstitution of a central authority and the Palace itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and land use change are two major elements of human-induced global environmental change. In temperate grasslands and woodlands, increasing frequency of extreme weather events like droughts and increasing severity of wildfires has altered the structure and dynamics of vegetation. In this paper, we studied the impact of wildfires and the year-to-year differences in precipitation on species composition changes in semi-arid grasslands of a forest-steppe complex ecosystem which has been partially disturbed by wildfires. Particularly, we investigated both how long-term compositional dissimilarity changes and species richness are affected by year-to-year precipitation differences on burnt and unburnt areas. Study sites were located in central Hungary, in protected areas characterized by partially-burnt, juniper-poplar forest-steppe complexes of high biodiversity. Data were used from two long-term monitoring sites in the Kiskunság National Park, both characterized by the same habitat complex. We investigated the variation in species composition as a function of time using distance decay methodology. In each sampling area, compositional dissimilarity increased with the time elapsed between the sampling events, and species richness differences increased with increasing precipitation differences between consecutive years. We found that both the long-term compositional dissimilarity, and the year-to-year changes in species richness were higher in the burnt areas than in the unburnt ones. The long-term compositional dissimilarities were mostly caused by perennial species, while the year-to-year changes of species richness were driven by annual and biennial species. As the effect of the year-to-year variation in precipitation was more pronounced in the burnt areas, we conclude that canopy removal by wildfires and extreme inter-annual variability of precipitation, two components of global environmental change, act in a synergistic way. They enhance the effect of one another, resulting in greater long-term and year-to-year changes in the composition of grasslands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this work is to develop a simple methodology for high resolution crop suitability analysis under current and future climate, easily applicable and useful in Least Developed Countries. The approach addresses both regional planning in the context of climate change projections and pre-emptive short-term rural extension interventions based on same-year agricultural season forecasts, while implemented with off-the-shelf resources. The developed tools are applied operationally in a case-study developed in three regions of Guinea-Bissau and the obtained results, as well as the advantages and limitations of methods applied, are discussed. In this paper we show how a simple approach can easily generate information on climate vulnerability and how it can be operationally used in rural extension services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of a consensus-driven process identifying 50 priority research questions for historical ecology obtained through crowdsourcing, literature reviews, and in-person workshopping. A deliberative approach was designed to maximize discussion and debate with defined outcomes. Two in-person workshops (in Sweden and Canada) over the course of two years and online discussions were peer facilitated to define specific key questions for historical ecology from anthropological and archaeological perspectives. The aim of this research is to showcase the variety of questions that reflect the broad scope for historical-ecological research trajectories across scientific disciplines. Historical ecology encompasses research concerned with decadal, centennial, and millennial human-environmental interactions, and the consequences that those relationships have in the formation of contemporary landscapes. Six interrelated themes arose from our consensus-building workshop model: (1) climate and environmental change and variability; (2) multi-scalar, multi-disciplinary; (3) biodiversity and community ecology; (4) resource and environmental management and governance; (5) methods and applications; and (6) communication and policy. The 50 questions represented by these themes highlight meaningful trends in historical ecology that distill the field down to three explicit findings. First, historical ecology is fundamentally an applied research program. Second, this program seeks to understand long-term human-environment interactions with a focus on avoiding, mitigating, and reversing adverse ecological effects. Third, historical ecology is part of convergent trends toward transdisciplinary research science, which erodes scientific boundaries between the cultural and natural. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scientific community has recognized the importance of integrating farmer’s perceptions and knowledge (FPK) for the development of sustainable pest and disease management strategies. However, the knowledge gap between indigenous and scientific knowledge still contributes to misidentification of plant health constraints and poor adoption of management solutions. This is particularly the case in the context of smallholder farming in developing countries. In this paper, we present a case study on coffee production in Uganda, a sector depending mostly on smallholder farming facing a simultaneous and increasing number of socio-ecological pressures. The objectives of this study were (i) to examine and relate FPK on Arabica Coffee Pests and Diseases (CPaD) to altitude and the vegetation structure of the production systems; (ii) to contrast results with perceptions from experts and (iii) to compare results with field observations, in order to identify constraints for improving the information flow between scientists and farmers. Data were acquired by means of interviews and workshops. One hundred and fifty farmer households managing coffee either at sun exposure, under shade trees or inter-cropped with bananas and spread across an altitudinal gradient were selected. Field sampling of the two most important CPaD was conducted on a subset of 34 plots. The study revealed the following findings: (i) Perceptions on CPaD with respect to their distribution across altitudes and perceived impact are partially concordant among farmers, experts and field observations (ii) There are discrepancies among farmers and experts regarding management practices and the development of CPaD issues of the previous years. (iii) Field observations comparing CPaD in different altitudes and production systems indicate ambiguity of the role of shade trees. According to the locality-specific variability in CPaD pressure as well as in FPK, the importance of developing spatially variable and relevant CPaD control practices is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change’s causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized—and differentiated from common mitigation behavior—as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change—but not in motivational or socio-demographic links—with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The topics of climate change and renewable energy are often linked in policy discussions and scientific analysis, but public opinion on these topics exhibits both overlap and divergence. Although renewable energy has potentially broader acceptance than anthropogenic climate change, it can also face differently-based opposition. Analyses of US and regional surveys, including time series of repeated surveys in New Hampshire (2010–2018) and northeast Oregon (2011–2018), explore the social bases and trends of public views on both issues. Political divisions are prominent, although somewhat greater regarding climate change due to substantive differences and more partisan opposition. Regarding climate change and to a lesser extent renewable energy, political divisions tends to widen with education. There also are robust age and temporal effects: younger adults more often prioritize renewable energy development, and agree with scientists on the reality of anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Across all age groups and both regional series, support for renewable energy and recognition of ACC have been gradually rising. Contrary to widespread speculation, these trends have not visibly responded to events such as the US hurricanes of 2012, 2017 or 2018. Together with age-cohort replacement and the potential for changes in age-group voting participation, however, the gradual trends suggest that public pressure for action on these issues could grow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use agent-based computer simulation to test the effect of environmental conditions (available biomass/carrying capacity and environmental risk) on the development of wealth inequality and patron-client herding networks in nomadic pastoral economies. Our results show that 1) wealth inequality reaches very high levels when carrying capacity is high and risk is low, and 2) patron-client contract herding networks increase in size and duration when carrying capacity is high and risk is low. We compare empirical data from the Mongol (1206–1368 CE) and Xiongnu (209 BCE– 48 CE) empires with simulation results to develop an explanatory mechanism for the apparent correlation between nomadic empire creation and positive environmental conditions. We argue that the internal dynamics of nomadic pastoral societies are sufficient to produce high degrees of inequality and hierarchical herding networks. Nomadic empires are more likely to form during key periods of increased biomass and decreased environmental risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measuring disaster resilience is a key component of successful disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Quantitative, indicator-based assessments are typically applied to evaluate resilience by combining various indicators of performance into a single composite index. Building upon extensive research on social vulnerability and coping/adaptive capacity, we first develop an original, comprehensive disaster resilience index (CDRI) at municipal level across Italy, to support the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. As next, we perform extensive sensitivity and robustness analysis to assess how various methodological choices, especially the normalisation and aggregation methods applied, influence the ensuing rankings. The results show patterns of social vulnerability and resilience with sizeable variability across the northern and southern regions. We propose several statistical methods to allow decision makers to explore the territorial, social and economic disparities, and choose aggregation methods best suitable for the various policy purposes. These methods are based on linear and non-liner normalization approaches combining the OWA and LSP aggregators. Robust resilience rankings are determined by relative dominance across multiple methods. The dominance measures can be used as a decision-making benchmark for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management strategies and plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is considerable variation among studies that evaluate how amphibian populations respond to global climate change. We used 23 years of annual survey data to test whether changes in climate have caused predictable shifts in the phenology and population characteristics of adult spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) during spring breeding migrations. Although we observed year-to-year correlation between seasonal climate variables and salamander population characteristics, there have not been long-term, directional shifts in phenological or population characteristics. Warm winters consistently resulted in early migration dates, but across the 23-year study, there was no overall shift towards warmer winters and thus no advanced migration timing. Warm summers and low variability in summer temperatures were correlated with large salamander body sizes, yet an overall shift towards increasing body sizes was not observed despite rising summer temperatures during the study. This was likely due to the absence of long-term changes of within-year variation in summer temperatures, which was a stronger determinant of body size than summer temperature alone. Climate-induced shifts in population characteristics were thus not observed for this species as long-term changes in important seasonal climate variables were not observed during the 23-years of the study. Different amphibian populations will likely be more resilient to climate change impacts than others, and the probability of amphibians exhibiting long-term population changes will depend on how seasonal climate change interacts with a species’ life history, phenology, and geographic location. Linking a wide range of seasonal climatic conditions to species or population characteristics should thus improve our ability for explaining idiosyncratic responses of species to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat’s emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4– based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500–4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre–to post–4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change poses severe risks to human and natural systems, many young Canadian adults do not view it as a major issue. We analyzed secondary science curricula in each province for their coverage of climate change according to six core topics: physical climate mechanisms (“It’s climate”), observed increase in temperature (“It’s warming”), anthropogenic causes of warming (“It’s us”), scientific consensus (“Experts agree”), negative consequences associated with warming (“It’s bad”), and the possibility for avoiding the worst effects (“We can fix it”). We found that learning objectives tend to focus on knowledge of the first three elements, with little or no emphasis on scientific consensus, climate change impacts, or ways to address the issue. The provinces of Saskatchewan and Ontario provide the most comprehensive standards for climate change education, while Nova Scotia and New Brunswick provide the least. We conducted interviews with individuals responsible for curriculum design in six different provinces to understand how curriculum documents are developed and whether political controversies influence the writing process. Interviewees described a process relying on input from professionals, institutions, and members of the public where curriculum developers made decisions independent of political concerns. In some cases, efforts to provide balance may have led to a focus on social controversy, contrary to overwhelming scientific consensus. Curriculum documents are the basis for teacher instruction and textbook content; aligning these documents with the best possible evidence can improve student learning and engage the next generation of Canadians on the critical issue of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) is a global public health priority that often disproportionately effects Indigenous populations. While previous research examines the association between meteorological conditions and AGI, little is known about how socio-cultural factors may modify this relationship. This present study seeks to address this research gap by comparing AGI prevalence and determinants between an Indigenous and non-Indigenous population in Uganda. We estimate the 14-day self-reported prevalence of AGI among adults in an Indigenous Batwa population and their non-Indigenous neighbours using cross-sectional panel data collected over four periods spanning typically rainy and dry seasons (January 2013 to April 2014). The independent associations between Indigenous status, precipitation, and AGI are examined with multivariable multi-level logistic regression models, controlling for relative wealth status and clustering at the community level. Estimated prevalence of AGI among the Indigenous Batwa was greater than among the non-Indigenous Bakiga. Our models indicate that both Indigenous identity and decreased levels of precipitation in the weeks preceding the survey period were significantly associated with increased AGI, after adjusting for confounders. Multivariable models stratified by Indigenous identity suggest that Indigenous identity may not modify the association between precipitation and AGI in this context. Our results suggest that short-term changes in precipitation affect both Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations similarly, though from different baseline AGI prevalences, maintaining rather than exacerbating this socially patterned health disparity. In the context of climate change, these results may challenge the assumption that changing weather patterns will necessarily exacerbate existing socially patterned health disparities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The loss of Neanderthal groups across Western and Central Europe during Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS) 3 has held the attention of archaeologists for decades. The role that climatic change, genetic interbreeding, and interspecies competition played in the extinction of Neanderthal groups is still debated. Hohle Fels is one of several important Middle and Upper Paleolithic sites from the Ach Valley in southwestern Germany which documents the presence of Neanderthals and modern humans in the region. Chronological and stratigraphic records indicate that these two groups occupied the site with little to no overlap or interaction. This provides the opportunity to examine the behavioural variability of Swabian Neanderthal populations without the complication of cross-cultural influence. In this study we contribute a terrestrial paleoenvironmental record derived from the small mammal material from Hohle Fels Cave to the ever-growing archaeological record of this period. By reconstructing the climate and landscape of the Ach Valley during this time we can identify the effect that the OIS 3 environment had on the presence of Neanderthals in the region. Based on indicator taxa and the habitat weighing method, the small mammal record, which includes rodents, insectivores, and bats, from Hohle Fels shows that the earliest Neanderthal occupation took place on a landscape characterized by substantial woodland and forest, rivers and ponds, as well as moist meadows and grasslands. A gradual increase in cold tundra and arctic environments is clear towards the end of the Middle Paleolithic, extending to the end of the early Aurignacian which may correlate with the onset of the Heinrich 4 event (~42,000 kya). Our taphonomic analysis indicates the material was accumulated primarily by opportunistic predators such as the great grey owl, snowy owl, and European eagle owl, and therefore reflects the diversity of landscapes present around the site in the past. Importantly, at the time Neanderthals abandoned the Ach Valley we find no indication for dramatic climatic deterioration. Rather, we find evidence of a gradual cooling of the Swabian landscape which may have pushed Neanderthal groups out of the Ach Valley prior to the arrival of modern human Aurignacian groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cost-effective heat mitigation strategies are imperative for maintaining milk production and dairy farm profitability in the U.S. with projected climate change. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of four heat abatement strategies, including Minimal (open barn or shading), Moderate (forced ventilation), High (fans and misting), and Intense (air conditioning). Heat stress and subsequent impacts on milk production per cow were predicted across nine climatic regions in the U.S. for early (2015 to 2034), mid (2045 to 2064) and late (2081 to 2100) 21st century, using downscaled climate projections. Heat abatements were used to adjust predicted milk production losses and illustrate the potential to reduce milk production losses due to heat stress. Economic analysis included a cost-benefit ratio calculation associated with the implementation of each heat abatement. Results showed that milk production losses were expected to accelerate across the U.S. at a mean rate of 174±7 kg/cow/decade, with the fastest rate in the Southeast region. Relative to Minimal heat abatement, Moderate, High, and Intense heat abatements increased annual milk production per cow by 3%, 4%, and 6% during early-21st century, 3%, 6%, and 11% during mid-21st century, and 3%, 8%, and 21% during late-21st century, respectively. The cost effectiveness of different heat abatement strategies generally increased with subsequently stronger heat abatements. In mid- and late-21st century, mean annual net values of High and Intense heat stress abatement implementation approached -$30 to $190 /cow and -$20 to $590 /cow, respectively, with the largest net annual benefit in late-21st century under Intense abatement. Findings from the study demonstrate the value of using downscaled climate projections to shed light on local and regional strategies to abate heat stress on cattle and mitigate potential milk production losses due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past research indicates that in political debates the same arguments are judged very differently depending on the perceiver’s own position on the issue, because positions on controversial issues are often tied to collective identities. In this article, we test the assumption that equality-based respect from an opposing opinion-based group can reduce such biases. Results confirmed that identification as an opponent or proponent of a contested issue was negatively related to evaluations of outgroup arguments (Study 1) and that this negative link was no longer significant when intergroup respect was experimentally induced (Study 2). Results support the notion that disagreements over political issues are intergroup conflicts, in which different socio-political groups struggle for recognition, and that approaches that protect collective identities and improve intergroup relations should be employed to de-escalate them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future climate change will impose increased variability on food production and food trading networks. However, the effect of climate variability and sudden shocks on resource availability through trade and its subsequent effect on population growth is largely unknown. Here we study the effect of resource variability and network topology on access to resources and population growth, using a model of population growth limited by resource availability in a trading network. Resources are redistributed in the network based on supply and the distance between nodes (i.e. cities or countries). Resources at nodes vary over time with wave parameters that mimic changes in biomass production arising from known climate variability. Random perturbations to resources are applied to study resilience of individual nodes and the system as a whole. The model demonstrates that redistribution of resources increases the maximum population that can be supported (carrying capacity) by the network. Fluctuations in carrying capacity depend on the amplitude and frequency of resource variability: fluctuations become larger for increasing amplitude and decreasing frequency. Our study shows that topology is the key factor determining the carrying capacity of a node. In larger networks the carrying capacity increases and the distribution of resources in the network becomes more equal. The most central nodes achieve a higher carrying capacity than nodes with a lower centrality. Moreover, central nodes are less susceptible to long-term resource variability and shocks. These insights can be used to understand how worldwide equitable access to resources can be maintained under increasing climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been increasing attention to understanding how laypeople explain disagreements among scientists. In this article, we evaluate the factorial validity and scale/item functioning of a Science Dispute Reasons scale (Study 1) and test specific hypotheses about demographic, individual difference, and topic-related variables that may explain why some reasons are perceived to be more likely than others (Study 2). The final scale included 17 items grouped into three reason factors (Process/Competence, Interests/Values, and Complexity/Uncertainty), which is largely consistent with previous research. We find a mixed pattern of global and specific impacts on reason likelihood ratings from a range of variables including political ideology and conspiracist ideation (primary mediated through perceived credibility of science), science knowledge, and topic-related variables such as knowledge of and care about the dispute in question. Overall, science dispute reasons appear to be more strongly driven by attitudes and worldviews as opposed to objective knowledge and skills. These findings represent progress in understanding lay perceptions of the causes of scientific disputes, although much work remains. We discuss the implications of this work and directions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many systems in various scientific fields like medicine, ecology, economics or climate science exhibit so-called critical transitions, through which a system abruptly changes from one state to a different state. Typical examples are epileptic seizures, changes in the climate system or catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. In order to predict imminent critical transitions, a mathematical apparatus called early warning signals has been developed and this method is used successfully in many scientific areas. However, not all critical transitions can be detected by this approach (false negative) and the appearance of early warning signals does not necessarily proof that a critical transition is imminent (false positive). Furthermore, there are whole classes of systems that always show early warning signals, even though they do not feature critical transitions. In this study we identify such classes in order to provide a safeguard against a misinterpretation of the results of an early warning signal analysis of such systems. Furthermore, we discuss strategies to avoid such systematic false positives and test our theoretical insights by applying them to real world data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the dynamic of Neolithic settlement on a local scale and its connection to climate variability is often difficult due to missing on-site climate reconstructions from natural archives. Here we bring together archaeological settlement data and a regional climate reconstruction from precipitation-sensitive trees. Both archives hold information about regional settlement dynamics and hydroclimate variability spanning the time of the first farming communities, the so called Linearbandkeramik (LBK) in Bavaria, Germany. Precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series from subfossil oak are used to develop a spring-summer precipitation reconstruction (5700–4800 B.C.E.) representative for southern Germany. Early Neolithic settlement data from Bavaria, mainly for the duration of the LBK settlement activities, are critically evaluated and compared to this unique regional hydroclimate reconstruction as well as to reconstructions of Greenland temperature, summer sea surface temperature, delta 18O and global solar irradiance to investigate the potential impact of climate on Neolithic settlers and their settlement dynamic during the LBK. Our hydroclimate reconstruction demonstrates an extraordinarily high frequency of severe dry and wet spring-summer seasons during the entire LBK, with particularly high year-to-year variability from 5400 to 5101 B.C.E. and with lower fluctuations until 4801 B.C.E. A significant influence of regional climate on the dynamic of the LBK is possible (e.g. around 4960 B.C.E.), but should be interpreted very carefully due to asynchronous trends in settlement dynamics. Thus, we conclude that even when a climate proxy such as tree rings that has excellent spatio-temporal resolution is available, it remains difficult to establish potential connections between the settlement dynamic of the LBK and climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent global trend toward retirement of farmland presents opportunities to reclaim habitat for threatened and endangered species. We examine habitat restoration opportunities in one of the world’s most converted landscapes, California’s San Joaquin Desert (SJD). Despite the presence of 35 threatened and endangered species, agricultural expansion continues to drive habitat loss in the SJD, even as marginal farmland is retired. Over the next decades a combination of factors, including salinization, climate change, and historical groundwater overdraft, are projected to lead to the retirement of more than 2,000 km2 of farmland in the SJD. To promote strategic habitat protection and restoration, we conducted a quantitative assessment of habitat loss and fragmentation, habitat suitability, climatic niche stability, climate change impacts, habitat protection, and reintroduction opportunities for an umbrella species of the SJD, the endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizard (Gambelia sila). We use our suitability models, in conjunction with modern and historical land use maps, to estimate the historical and modern rate of habitat loss to development. The estimated amount of habitat lost since the species became protected under endangered species law in 1967 is greater than the total amount of habitat currently protected through public ownership and conservation easement. We document climatic niche contraction and associated range contraction away from the more mesic margins of the species’ historical distribution, driven by the anthropogenic introduction of exotic grasses and forbs. The impact of exotic species on G. sila range dynamics appears to be still unfolding. Finally, we use NASA fallowed area maps to identify 610 km2 of fallowed or retired agricultural land with high potential to again serve as habitat. We discuss conservation strategies in light of the potential for habitat restoration and multiple drivers of ongoing and historical habitat loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concepts of 464 university freshmen towards Environmental Education (EE) and Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) were analyzed. Responses were classified into seven main categories: ‘ecological aspects’, ‘ecological problems’, ‘economical aspects’, ‘social aspects’, ‘environmental attitudes’, ‘environmental behavior’ and ‘education’. Analyses of sustainability concepts show a large discrepancy between EE and ESD, whereby the latter includes an additional sub-group: ‘the next generation aspect’. Labeling individual sources of EE in a retrospective assessment identified the family as the most important source of knowledge, followed by media, school and outreach. Further differences were detected between students’ self-perception and their ideal conception of environmental behavior, by using the scale Inclusion of Nature in Self (INS). Only some EE statements produced higher (unfulfilled) expectations ‘economic aspects’, ‘environmental behavior’ and ‘ecological problems’. In contrast fewer (unfulfilled) expectations were observed in the categories of ‘education’ and ‘ecological aspects’. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental degradation is causing global warming, which is of the utmost concern to both physical and social scientists. A number of potential determinants of environmental degradation are analysed in the literature. This study examines the role of government expenditure and financial development in environmental degradation in the context of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for the Venezuelan economy. Time series data have been analysed for this purpose. The long-term relationship between the variables in this study is established through a bounds test in the presence of an unknown structural break. The results of this study confirm the EKC hypothesis. It is found that energy use is harming the quality of the environment not only in the long run but also in the short run. This study finds a positive impact of government expenditure on environmental degradation, which indicates that the Venezuelan government is not taking its expenditure for a sustainable environment into account. Moreover, this study finds that financial development is hindering environmental degradation. This means that financial institutions in Venezuela can help to develop the concept of sustainable energy in the country and the Venezuelan government can reduce carbon emissions through financial development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Archaeologists and other scholars have long studied the causes of collapse and other major social transformations and debated how they can be understood. This article instead focuses on the human experience of living through those transformations, analyzing 18 transformation cases from the US Southwest and the North Atlantic. The transformations, including changes in human securities, were coded based on expert knowledge and data analyzed using Qualitative Comparative Analysis techniques. Results point to the following conclusions: Major transformations, including collapses, generally have a strong and negative impact on human security; flexible strategies that facilitate smaller scale changes may ameliorate those difficulties. Community security is strongly implicated in these changes; strong community security may minimize other negative changes. The relationships among the variables are complex and multi-causal; while social transformation may lead to declines in human securities, declining conditions of life can also push people to transform their societies in negative ways. Results show that some societies are better able to deal with difficulties than others. One important policy implication is that community security and local conditions can be instrumental both in helping people to cope with difficulties and in staving off some of those difficulties. A multi-scalar approach is essential as we face the increasing problems of climate change in the decades ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Asia emits more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than any other region, yet little is known about attitudes towards climate change in this region. A cross-sectional survey investigating climate change knowledge, concern and behavior change was administered to 1118 university students at nine universities across Taiwan in June 2016. Knowledge was assessed with a 15-item quiz while concern and behavioral change were self-reported on 5-point Likert scales. The relationship of these three variables with various socio-demographic variables was investigated through Kruskal-Wallis tests and ordinal logistic regressions. Knowledge was homogeneous by region but differed sharply by socioeconomic position. Concern appears high by international standards, with 65% reporting being “somewhat concerned” and 28% being “very concerned,” while climate change denial was negligible. Students expressing greater concern were more likely to be from eastern and southern Taiwan, regions more vulnerable to extreme weather events. However, these high concern levels did not translate into action, as only 38% of respondents reported “some” and 11% reported “very much” behavioral change in response to climate change. Higher levels of behavioral change were reported by students expressing greater concern and students with lower levels of climate change knowledge. In contrast with studies of Western societies, our findings suggest an East Asian model in which the conflict between economic growth and the environment is playing out in different ways, such that the crucial need is for policy leadership and not more education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change has implications for human health and productivity. Models suggest that heat extremes affect worker health, reduce labor capacity, and commodity supply. Chronic health conditions are on the rise internationally. However there is a paucity of direct empirical evidence relating increasing temperatures to both agricultural worker health and productivity. Methods and findings: We evaluated the relationship between temperature exposure, kidney function, and two measures of productivity—tons of commodity produced and job attrition, of 4,095 Guatemalan sugarcane cutters over a 6-month harvest. We used distributed lag non-linear models to evaluate associations between wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and productivity of workers with normal or impaired kidney function. The cumulative effect of exposure to a max WBGT of 34°C was 1.16 tons (95% CI: -2.87, 0.54) less sugarcane cut over the next five days by workers with impaired kidney function, compared to exposure to 29°C. Impaired kidney function was associated with premature workforce attrition. Workers starting the harvest season with impaired kidney function were more than twice as likely to leave employment (HR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.88, 4.32). Conclusions: Heat extremes may be associated with loss of agricultural worker productivity and employment, especially among those with impaired kidney function. Agricultural workers who develop health conditions, such as kidney disease, are particularly vulnerable in the face of climate change and increasing heat extremes. The resultant loss of employment and productivity has significant implications for global commodity supplies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to ensure the provision of goods and services from forests, many governments have promoted less-traditional conservation initiatives such as programs of payments for ecosystem services called, more broadly, direct payments for conservation. The Socio Bosque Program (SBP) is a governmental program in Ecuador that directly provides economic incentives to rural families and local and indigenous communities who have voluntarily agreed to comply with some conservation activities. An impact evaluation method (matching) was used to assess the impact of the SBP between 2008 and 2014. This study revealed that on average, the SBP reduced deforestation by 1.5% in those forests that received the SBP’s direct payment. These forests would have been deforested if the SBP had not been implemented. Assessment of the impact of the SBP on individual and collective contracts, using the matching method, revealed that 3.4% and roughly 1% of the forest would have been deforested in the absence of the program, respectively. In other words, the protected area in the collective SBP was 1,247,500 ha and, if the SBP had not been implemented, an area of 11,227 ha would have been lost between 2008 and 2014. The 165,700 ha protected by the individual SBP, it was estimated that 5,733 ha were not deforested due to the implementation of the conservation program. Conventional estimates of the impact of the SBP tend to overestimate avoided deforestation because they do not control for observable covariates that correlate with or affect both SBP participation and deforestation. The conclusions are robust, even given potential hidden biases. The present study demonstrated that the SBP serves to mitigate the effects of climate change, especially with those contracts that are intended for individual owners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change communication efforts grounded in the information deficit model have largely failed to close the gap between scientific and public understanding of the risks posed by climate change. In response, simulations have been proposed to enable people to learn for themselves about this complex and politically charged topic. Here we assess the impact of a widely-used simulation, World Climate, which combines a socially and emotionally engaging role-play with interactive exploration of climate change science through the C-ROADS climate simulation model. Participants take on the roles of delegates to the UN climate negotiations and are challenged to create an agreement that meets international climate goals. Their decisions are entered into C-ROADS, which provides immediate feedback about expected global climate impacts, enabling them to learn about climate change while experiencing the social dynamics of negotiations. We assess the impact of World Climate by analyzing pre- and post-survey results from >2,000 participants in 39 sessions in eight nations. We find statistically significant gains in three areas: (i) knowledge of climate change causes, dynamics and impacts; (ii) affective engagement including greater feelings of urgency and hope; and (iii) a desire to learn and do more about climate change. Contrary to the deficit model, gains in urgency were associated with gains in participants’ desire to learn more and intent to act, while gains in climate knowledge were not. Gains were just as strong among American participants who oppose government regulation of free markets–a political ideology that has been linked to climate change denial in the US–suggesting the simulation’s potential to reach across political divides. The results indicate that World Climate offers a climate change communication tool that enables people to learn and feel for themselves, which together have the potential to motivate action informed by science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reconstruction of past demographic patterns is a fundamental step towards a better understanding of human-environment relations, especially in terms of quantifiable anthropic impact and population susceptibility to environmental changes. The recently developed Summed Calibrated Probability Distributions (SCPD) approach, based on large collections of archaeological radiocarbon dates, provides a new tool to obtain continuous prehistoric population curves suitable for comparison with palaeoenvironmental time series. Despite a wide application in Mesolithic and Neolithic contexts worldwide, the use of the SCPD method remains rare for post-Neolithic societies. Our aim is to address this visible gap and apply the SCPD approach to South European archeological contexts between the Bronze Age and the transition into the Iron Age (1800–800 cal. BC), then evaluating these results against local archeological narratives and palaeoecological data. We first test the SCPD method at a supra regional scale, ranging from the Ebro to the Danube rivers, and subsequently in five selected regions within this area. We then compare the regional population curves to climate data reconstructed from local palynological records. Our results highlight the contrast between a stable supra regional demographic trend and more dynamic regional patterns. We do not observe any convincing long-term correlations between population and climate, but localized episodes of demographic stagnation or decline are present in conjunction with climatic shifts or extremes. Nevertheless, climate change as a triggering factor should be considered with caution, especially in peripheral areas where the archaeological data is faint, or where local evidence points to contemporaneous, ongoing landscape overexploitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global cooperation is urgently needed to prevent risks of world-wide extreme events and disasters for sustainable development. In human societies, however, there exists bias toward interacting with partners with similar characteristics, but not contributing globally. We study how complex interactive behaviors evolve under risks through proposing a threshold public goods game model. In the model, individuals either play games with participants who own the same phenotype, or contribute to the collective target of global public goods. We further introduce an insurance compensation mechanism into the model to probe the evolution of global cooperation. It is found that the introduction of the insurance remarkably promotes the emergence of global cooperative behavior and inhibits the tendency to play games only with individuals of the same phenotype. Besides, contrary to models without insurance, global cooperation is strengthened with the increase of imitation intensities. In addition, high risk and high threshold are in favor of global cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individuals must have a quantitative understanding of the carbon footprint tied to their everyday decisions to make efficient sustainable decisions. We report research of the innumeracy of individuals as it relates to their carbon footprint. In three studies that varied in terms of scale and sample, respondents estimate the quantity of CO2 released when combusting a gallon of gasoline in comparison to several well-known metrics including food calories and travel distance. Consistently, respondents estimated the quantity of CO2 from gasoline compared to other metrics with significantly less accuracy while exhibiting a tendency to underestimate CO2. Such relative absence of carbon numeracy of even a basic consumption habit may limit the effectiveness of environmental policies and campaigns aimed at changing individual behavior. We discuss several caveats as well as opportunities for policy design that could aid the improvement of people’s quantitative understanding of their carbon footprint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal risks are increasing from both development and climate change. Interest is growing in the protective role that coastal nature-based measures (or green infrastructure), such as reefs and wetlands, can play in adapting to these risks. However, a lack of quantitative information on their relative costs and benefits is one principal factor limiting their use more broadly. Here, we apply a quantitative risk assessment framework to assess coastal flood risk (from climate change and economic exposure growth) across the United States Gulf of Mexico coast to compare the cost effectiveness of different adaptation measures. These include nature-based (e.g. oyster reef restoration), structural or grey (e.g., seawalls) and policy measures (e.g. home elevation). We first find that coastal development will be a critical driver of risk, particularly for major disasters, but climate change will cause more recurrent losses through changes in storms and relative sea level rise. By 2030, flooding will cost $134–176.6 billion (for different economic growth scenarios), but as the effects of climate change, land subsidence and concentration of assets in the coastal zone increase, annualized risk will more than double by 2050 with respect to 2030. However, from the portfolio we studied, the set of cost-effective adaptation measures (with benefit to cost ratios above 1) could prevent up to $57–101 billion in losses, which represents 42.8–57.2% of the total risk. Nature-based adaptation options could avert more than $50 billion of these costs, and do so cost effectively with average benefit to cost ratios above 3.5. Wetland and oyster reef restoration are found to be particularly cost-effective. This study demonstrates that the cost effectiveness of nature-based, grey and policy measures can be compared quantitatively with one another, and that the cost effectiveness of adaptation becomes more attractive as climate change and coastal development intensifies in the future. It also shows that investments in nature-based adaptation could meet multiple objectives for environmental restoration, adaptation and flood risk reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]