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Instrumental data from the pre–Industrial Revolution period are important to -understand climate change. In this paper, the observations made by the French missionary J. Amiot in present-day central Beijing during 1757–62 were processed and analyzed. The observations represent the earliest continuous dataset of meteorological records found in China that have been digitized recently. Comparisons between the Amiot annual temperature range and extreme values with modern observations showed that the observations were read at approximately 0800 and 1500 local solar time (LST) in a well-ventilated outdoor site. The daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures (T-max, T-min, and T-mean, respectively) during 1757–62 were determined by examining the relationship between temperature at 0800 and 1500 LST and T-max, T-min, and T-mean in modern reference series. Nearly 260 years ago, Beijing's climate was typical of an inland temperate monsoon zone with annual T-mean, annual mean T-max, and annual mean T-min being 11.5°, 17.8°, and 6.1°C, respectively; further, the temperatures did not vary considerably from the 1951–1980 temperatures, but differed evidently compared to relatively recent decades (1981–2020). The difference was larger than the magnitudes of global and regional temperature changes. Thus, climate warming since the pre–Industrial Revolution period in the urban areas of Beijing has dominantly occurred over the last four decades. Uncertainties related to the thermometer and observational conditions 260 years ago and the interpolation method used have also been discussed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a special issue ofLocal Environmentthat has arisen through collaboration between academic researchers and the Urban Planning and Design Branch of UN-Habitat, focused on how we can understand and respond to the challenges of urban vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. The paper establishes the existing state of the art in the field, and considers critical challenges that are emerging in the research-based literature. In this context, it introduces UN-Habitat's Cities and Climate Change Initiative and reflects on the lessons learnt and challenges ahead, drawing on insights from across the papers in the special issue. In conclusion, it identifies the role of international/transnational co-operation, the relation between adaptation and mitigation, issues of multi-level governance and the ways in which change in urban socio-technical systems might be achieved as critical issues across the science/policy interface where increased dialogue and the co-production of knowledge needs to focus in order to advance this agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO THE PROBLEM: THE GROWING AWARENESS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS LINK TO CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS HAVE CAUSED CONCERNS IN THE COMMUNITY. A substantial amount of carbon dioxide emitted is due to the energy consumed by residential households. Heating/cooling of a residential house consumes a large proportion of the total household energy. Purpose: This paper explores the concept by comparing thermal efficiency of the four most common external wall structures, with varying amounts of insulation added in the context of Sydney, Australia. Design/methodology/approach: Cost and thermal analysis for each wall type are calculated. Life cycle cost saving and payback period are then evaluated. Findings: It is found that up to 95.7% cost saving can be achieved in heating/cooling in comparing the use of insulated wall systems and air film. Cement sheet wall system is found to be the most cost effective wall system for insulation with minimum 50% of cost saving can be achieved. The results also identify substantial energy cost required for heating/cooling a house without insulation when the climate gets extreme. The payback period for the installation of the insulated wall systems can be achieved in 4.98 years for normal climate condition or 2.58 years for extreme climate condition. Practical implications: The community is currently at great risk of being unable to deal with climate change issue as not clear the effective use of insulated wall systems. This paper can help provide insight and suggestions for residential households in tackling global warming issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents an analysis on the focal Concepts and Synthesis paper of Kevin D. Lafferty on climate change impacts on infectious diseases. Lafferty's paper strongly summarizes the impact of climate change on mosquito--transmitted human infectious disease, as well as the inability of the people to detect climate drivers. The paper also failed to discuss the importance of climate warming and changes in host migratory in the spread of infectious diseases, the impact of climate change on disease dynamics, and the interaction between wildlife hosts and their communities of parasites.

Energy production has come under increasing scrutiny as concerns about energy security and climate change have risen. In the UK changes in government structure and privatisation of the electricity industry have led to the emergence of multi-level governance. This means that decisions on how to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity-generating sector should no longer be solely a national policy decision. Previous studies have sought to explore how renewable energy may develop under multi-level governance, but this paper pays attention to a traditional fossil fuel source, coal, which is still an important means of electricity generation. Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel and advocates argue that carbon capture and storage techniques could make coal ‘clean’, paving the way for a long-term, secure and low emission way to produce energy. This study focuses on the Yorkshire and Humber Region, which has had a long association with coal mining and looks at the implications of this as the region seeks to develop a climate change action plan and an energy strategy within the new regional governance structures. The paper argues that the regional networks developed to address climate change are influenced by existing social power structures and alliances. The region as a territorial structure becomes a useful device in promoting national priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is about the identification of the changing world climate drivers and speculation concerning the future impact such drivers will have on countries in the southern hemisphere, especially Australia and New Zealand. A focus for the above is a case study of climate change which has induced severe hardships in the Bendigo region of Victoria, Australia. The authors are of the opinion this experience, in this extremely climate sensitive agricultural area, is a forerunner to what could occur to many regions in the southern hemisphere. The case study shows the vulnerability of communities to instruments of governance established during periods of stability and urges the urgent need for modified governance instruments during periods of rapid climatic change. The paper commences the discussion about the meaning, relevance and reality of sustainability for communities during times of climatic uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last few years, the political discussion on global change has become focused on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and anthropogenic CO2 emissions, as well as on scientific data of climate change, and on new rules and regulation. This paper puts CO2 emissions into the wider context of sustainability. This broadens the view and changes the focus to issues of global ethics and the necessity for industrial countries to drastically reduce their resource consumption. Insurance companies can influence global climate change (GCC) directly through their investment and underwriting strategies, but also in daily operations. An overview and examples are given in the paper. The biggest impact insurance might have is in helping to speed up the adaptation to GCC, for instance by making available its pool of knowledge in prevention measures through risk engineering services. By promoting a stricter application of the concept of “insurability of risks”, politicians could exploit the link between insurance, technological innovation and sustainable development to develop numerous opportunities within the market economy. A rapid adaptation to the challenges of GCC will give industrialised countries a competitiveness pull, or enable less developed countries to leapfrog industrialised countries. But the key to a new vision of the future may be the development of a holistic view of nature, man and climate, and science and technology as a source of innovative ideas and solutions.The Geneva Papers (2008) 33, 507–529. doi:10.1057/gpp.2008.21 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant interannual El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENSO signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, an ENSO-removal method is developed through which the ENSO signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations are isolated at mid- and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalysis datasets. This paper addresses the long-term global warming trend (GW); a companion paper concentrates on Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV). The warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4 K in the twentieth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8 K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with the GW trend is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets, especially in the tightly coupled dynamics and water vapor fields. The dynamics fields based on NCEP–NCAR, which show a change in the Walker Circulation, are consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However, intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in ERA-40 instead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose — In 2007, the issues of global and climate change in particular, have become major issues in the social psyche. With the United Nations declaring 2008 the "International Year of Planet Earth", this; paper aims to look at four recent reports and comments on how the reports aim to deal with the climate and global change challenges ahead. Design/methodology/approach — After a brief introduction to the subject, this paper looks at each of the four reports in turn. It describes the methodology of each report and then discusses its relative strengths and weaknesses. This is followed by a conclusion on the reports as a whole and where policy makers can make improvements. Findings — All four reports are well structured and they have certainly raised the profile and illustrated the importance of global and climate change. However, there are a number of ways each could and should be improved in future updates. Practical implications — This paper aims to bring the reports to a wider audience and make recommendations on improvements to future reports on these important global issues. Originality/value — The paper evaluates four recent reports on the important social issues of global, change and climate change. By comparing and contrasting the reports, the paper gives an overview 01 what some of the larger policy makers are doing to tackle global and climate change. The paper also makes recommendations for improvements to the reports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already having impacts on biodiversity within Europe, with habitats and species needing to change and adapt to rising global temperatures and shifts in bio-climatic zones. Spatial planning represents an important intervention to further European, national and local biodiversity objectives for climate change adaptation. Drawing on case-studies of plans for inland and coastal areas, and involving stakeholder workshops, this paper reports on a trans-national study examining the scope of spatial plans in the Netherlands, England and France in addressing the impact of climate change. It concludes that spatial planning is making provision for biodiversity and dynamic natural processes. However, while good practice in planning for biodiversity under conditions of climate change is developing, systematic use is not being made of available procedures. The paper examines some of the barriers to implementation of this new policy commitment to climate change adaptation. Recommendations are made covering policy development to include climate change impacts upon biodiversity, modified procedures for plan-making and the appraisal of plans and projects. Amongst the specific measures recommended are the climate-proofing of projects and plans through the use of EIA and SEA; the integration of plans through adoption of common objectives and review of time horizons and boundaries; and an ecosystem-based planning approach. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background, Aims and Scope. The traditional method of using Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to assess the effects of climate change in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) does not account for indirect atmospheric effects like saturation effects and emissions of ozone precursors. The aim of this paper is to provide GWP values for LCA purposes of the most important climate related gases including indirect effects and assess whether these values are dependent of different background conditions and size of change in emissions fluxes. Methods. In order to reflect atmospheric interactions between direct and indirect greenhouse gases, an atmospheric climate and chemistry model needs to be used to determine GWP values. Here, the IMAGE model is used to determine GWP values for a time horizon of 100 years. Different runs were performed to test the outcomes against various background emission scenarios and various sizes in emission fluxes. Results and Discussion. The GWP values for CO2, N2O and CH4 depend on the chosen scenario and are lower under scenarios with higher background emissions. The GWPs of Halons, PFCs and SF6 are scenario and emission flux independent. The GWPs of HFCs increase with higher background emissions and higher additional emission fluxes, whereas GWPs of CFC are scenario independent, but change when other emission fluxes are applied. Finally, GWPs of HCFCs are higher in scenarios with higher background emission scenarios, and decrease when larger emission fluxes are applied. The GWP values calculated with IMAGE with direct effects only are comparable with IPCC values. Inclusion of the indirect atmospheric effects changes some of the values positively or negatively. For CFCs this results in a value up to 70% lower. For Halons this results in a value up to 1000% lower, resulting in a strong negative GWP. Inclusion of indirect effects increases the GWP of CH4 by 50%. Newly introduced greenhouse gases which have only indirect effects are given here a GWP. SO2 has a negative GWP which depends on both the flux size and the chosen background scenario. CO and NMVOC have a positive flux-and-scenario dependent GWP. The GWP of NOx can, dependent on de chosen conditions, be positive or negative. Conclusions. The GWP values of this paper are a first attempt to provide a consistent set of GWP values for all direct and indirect greenhouse gases, including differences in GWP values per background scenario and flux size. The inclusion of indirect effects in GWP values causes large differences in some important greenhouse gases, which should not be ignored in LCA- analyses. We suggest for LCA purposes to use GWPs including indirect effects for marginal change and for the most realistic background scenario. However, existing uncertainties in the indirect effects of greenhouse gases demand for a better understanding of the importance of these effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change exerts influence on the globe over relatively long temporal and at broad spatial scales. However, at the local scale in which communities undertake their daily activities, changes in land-use may result in changes that accumulate and manifest more quickly in the landscape. In this paper we set out a methodology for identifying social–ecological system (SES) vulnerabilities in the landscape with respect to freshwater resources for Arctic communities. A multiple-scale approach is used at regional and watershed scales and is demonstrated for the Seward Peninsula region, Alaska and the Fish River watershed on Seward Peninsula but may be applied elsewhere. The approach includes change in permafrost distribution as an important effect of climate change, and change in mining activity as an important land-use effect. Vulnerability in the SES is identified as a consequence of spatially coinciding values. The resulting patterns of vulnerability highlight the interaction between changes, which act on slower temporal scales (e.g., permafrost distribution) and changes which act more quickly (e.g., downstream aggregation of mining activity). These results are discussed in the context of using the integration approach outlined in this paper to better enable communities’ responses to change at local scales in such a way that they are both adaptive and resilient. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Fear of anthropogenic "global warming" can adversely affect patients' well-being. Accordingly, the state of the scientific consensus about climate change was studied by a review of the 539 papers on "global climate change" found on the Web of Science database from January 2004 to mid-February 2007, updating research by Oreskes, who had reported that between 1993 and 2003 none of 928 scientific papers on "global climate change" had rejected the consensus that more than half of the warming of the past 50 years was likely to have been anthropogenic. In the present review, 31 papers (6% of the sample) explicitly or implicitly reject the consensus. Though Oreskes said that 75% of the papers in her former sample endorsed the consensus, fewer than half now endorse it. Only 7% do so explicitly. Only one paper refers to "catastrophic" climate change, but without offering evidence. There appears to be little evidence in the learned journals to justify the climate-change alarm that now harms patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio-economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in India as an example. The framework links climate change variables — temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables — and sustainable development variables — technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less-GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an assessment of the ways in which water supply companies in England and Wales are adapting to climate change, evaluated in the context of a model of the adaptation process. The four components of the model are (i) awareness of and concern about the potential impacts of climate change, (ii) adaptation strategy, (iii) the concept of an adaptation space from which options are selected, and (iv) the notion that three groups of factors influence awareness, strategy and option selection: susceptibility to change, internal characteristics of the organisation, and regulatory and market context. Public water supply in England and Wales is provided by private sector companies, subject to environmental and economic regulation. Hydrological simulations suggest that climate change has the potential to reduce the reliability of supply sources over the next few decades. The industry in December 2004 completed a review of investment requirements over the next five years. Awareness of climate change is high in the water industry, but by developing assessment procedures and incorporating them into the investment review the regulators forced companies to consider explicitly the potential impacts of climate change in a consistent and rigorous manner. These analyses combined climate change with other pressures on water resources, and in practice companies did not attribute specific investment decisions or proposals to climate change or indeed any other individual drivers. The broad strategy adopted by all water supply companies - to maintain standards of service - is determined by regulatory controls and market considerations, but the degree of concern about the impacts of climate change and precise adaptation options necessary to address supply-demand imbalances varied between water supply companies, reflecting local geographic conditions. The water supply companies and regulators have different perspectives on the relative merits of supply-side and demand-side measures, reflecting different organisational priorities. The 2004 investment review determined that no specific actions were necessary to deal with future climate change, but that measures set in place - in terms of methodologies and investment in investigations into specific resource developments - provided a sound foundation for more specific actions in the next investment review in five years time. The paper concludes by summarising the factors assisting and constraining adaptation over the next few decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the skepticism in climate. This paper features the report of Sir Nicholas Stern to the United Kingdom's Chancellor of the Exchequer and to the Prime Minister. The report is based on a lecture entitled "What is the Economics of Climate Change," which was part of a lecture series. It discusses the skeptisms about the climate change as pointed by Stern and his team. The scientific aspects are reviewed as well as the uncertainties. The debates are briefly featured in this paper.

Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment practice, which is reflected in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar use of technical terms in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Manifold linkages exist between climate change and sustainable development. Although these are starting to receive attention in the climate exchange literature, the focus has typically been on examining sustainable development through a climate change lens, rather than vice versa. And there has been little systematic examination of how these linkages may be fostered in practice. This paper examines climate change through a sustainable development lens. To illustrate how this might change the approach to climate change issues, it reports on the findings of a panel of business, local government, and academic representatives in British Columbia, Canada, who were appointed to advise the provincial government on climate change policy. The panel found that sustainable development may offer a significantly more fruitful way to pursue climate policy goals than climate policy itself. The paper discusses subsequent climate change developments in the province and makes suggestions as how best to pursue such a sustainability approach in British Columbia and other jurisdictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate is an important input to many human activities. Climate affects heating and cooling requirements, health, clothing and nutritional needs as well as recreational activities. As such, it is to be expected that individuals will have a preference for particular types of climate. This paper analyses a panel of 67 countries attempting to explain differences in self-reported levels of happiness by reference to, amongst other things, temperature and precipitation. Various indices are used for each of these variables, including means, extremes and the number of hot, cold, wet and dry months. Using a panel-corrected least squares approach, the paper demonstrates that, even when controlling for a range of other factors, climate variables have a highly significant effect on country-wide self-reported levels of happiness. On the basis of these results, it is determined that differential patterns of anthropogenically induced climate change might alter dramatically the distribution of happiness between nations, with some countries moving towards a preferred climate and others moving further away. We find that high-latitude countries included in our dataset might benefit from temperature changes. Countries already characterized by very high summer temperatures would most likely suffer losses from climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Any discussion of the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures should take into consideration the full range of possible climate change outcomes, including impacts that remain highly uncertain, like surprises and other climate irreversibilities. Real-world coupling between complex systems can cause them to exhibit new collective behaviours that are not clearly demonstrable by models that do not include such coupling. Through examples from ocean circulation and atmosphere–biosphere interactions, this paper demonstrates that external forcings such as increases in GHG concentrations can push complex systems from one equilibrium state to another, with non-linear abrupt change as a possible consequence. Furthermore, the harder and faster a system is perturbed, the higher the likelihood of such surprises—a conclusion that has significant bearing on the assessment of the potential benefits of the timing and stringency of GHG abatement measures. The paper concludes with a perspective on how to better incorporate uncertainty and surprise into integrated assessment models of climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In March 2001, President G.W. Bush announced that the United States had abandoned the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. This paper describes the historical background as well as the political reasons and mechanisms behind the Bush administration's decision. Moreover, it deals with two alternative policy proposals, which have emerged at the US federal and the state level since then. The paper then highlights some important differences between EU and US climate change policies. The most important difference is that the EU wants global warming mitigation and the US, if necessary at all, is emphasizing the need to adapt to climate change. The paper concludes by suggesting that if a post-Kyoto treaty wants to bring the US back on board it will need to address this difference. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After posing four-broad questions about uncertainty and climate change, Part 1 of this paper provides a review of basic ideas about uncertainty and its treatment in quantitative policy analysis. Part 2 reports very briefly on a series of expert elicitations of climate experts which the author and his colleagues have conducted. The final portion of the paper uses integrated assessment of climate change as a vehicle to explore some limitations to conventional policy analysis and the treatment of uncertainty. Because the climate problem is global in scope, involving many societies, and because it will involve large changes that unfold on a time-scale of several centuries, many standard analytic methods for policy analysis cannot be appropriately applied. Several such difficulties are identified and explored. Strategies for addressing a few of them are discussed. The paper closes by offering answers to the four opening questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical glaciers are extremely sensitive to a warming climate. In this paper, the evolution of the remaining tropical glaciers in Australasia (Irian Jaya, Indonesia) during the period 1988-2015 was quantified. Landsat series images, a digital elevation model from SRTM, and previously published data were used. Estimated total glacier area in 1988, 1993, 1997 and 2004 was 3.85 km2±0.13 km2, 3.01 km2±0.08 km2, 2.49 km2±0.07 km2 and 1.725 km2 ±0.042 km2, respectively. Only 0.58 km2±0.016 km2 glacierized area remained in 2015 in Puncak Jaya, which is about 84.9% loss in just 27 years. If this rate continued, the remaining tropical glaciers in Australasia would disappear in the 2020s. Timeseries analysis of climate variables showed significant positive trends in air temperature (0.009°C per year) and relative humidity (0.43% per year) but no considerable tendency was observed for precipitation. Warming climate together with mining activities would accelerate loss of glacier coverage in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrology of scarce-data areas, such as the mountainous area of the Andes, is poorly known mainly owing to the lack of data. Global gridded climatological datasets (GGCDs) are becoming more precise and common, but the utility of these datasets and their applicability to complex hydrological systems are still not yet well determined. In this paper the reliability of a GGCD is evaluated as an alternative source to supply the lacking in situ observations, with the aim of studying the hydrology of a mountainous area in south-central Chile. The GGCDs are found to recover the climate variability in Andean areas, and partially recover the orographic effect caused by the mountains. A finding of practical relevance is that GGCDs could be considered as an adequate source for performing hydrological models and studies under high spatial variability and scarce-data environments such as the Andes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models to simulate the current and future climate change has flourished as a research topic during recent decades. This paper assesses the performance of multi-model ensembles in simulating global land temperature from 1960 to 1999, using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency and Taylor diagrams. The future trends of temperature for different scales and emission scenarios are projected based on the posterior model probabilities estimated by Bayesian methods. The results show that ensemble prediction can improve the accuracy of simulations of the spatiotemporal distribution of global temperature. The performance of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) at simulating the annual temperature dynamic is significantly better than single climate models and their simple model averaging (SMA). However, BMA simulation can demonstrate the temperature trend on the decadal scale, but its annual assessment of accuracy is relatively weak. The ensemble prediction presents dissimilarly accurate descriptions in different regions, and the best performance appears in Australia. The results also indicate that future temperatures in northern Asia rise with the greatest speed in some scenarios, and Australia is the most sensitive region for the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction, the impacts of climate change on agriculture production and water resources are discussed as an extension of this research. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Ongoing global warming not only involves changes in temperature and the global mean; it affects more or less every part of the climate. Regional temperature changes are often greater or smaller than corresponding changes in the global mean. In some cases the direction of change may also be different. For example, temperature changes are higher over land than over the ocean. Precipitation increases in some regions but decreases in others. Changes in extreme events may differ from changes in the corresponding mean. Present scientific knowledge clearly indicates that the already observed global trend towards warmer conditions will continue and that it will be accompanied by changes in yet other aspects of climate. This paper highlights, as a brief review, aspects of our changing climate from the available scientific knowledge with a bearing on the energy sector. Its focus is on temperature and precipitation, with some consideration of wind and sea level, among others. While uncertainties remain as far as the magnitude of future global-scale changes is concerned, and even more so their many regional patterns, significant changes are foreseen in, for example, global and regional temperature and precipitation, sea level rise, and in the characteristics of various extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI_2 represents the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The ANEMI_2 model is based on the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows for the understanding and modeling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adapting to changing global conditions within an integrated assessment modeling framework. This paper outlines the ANEMI_2 model and its nine system components: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energy-economy. To evaluate market and nonmarket costs and benefits of climate change, the ANEMI_2 model integrates an economic optimization approach, with a focus on the international energy stock and fuel price, climate interrelations and temperature change. The model takes into account all major greenhouse gases (GHG) influencing global temperature and sea-level variation. Results from several scenarios (a) compare well with other information available in the scientific literature, (b) present comprehensive response of the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system to the selected scenarios, and (c) confirm the support role of the ANEMI_2 model in the policy development and analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assessed the influence of Nigerian media on public knowledge of climate change. This work acknowledges that public understanding of climate change is a prerequisite to taking voluntary action to mitigate its effects. The work therefore sought to ascertain the specific ways in which Nigerian media reportage of climate change had influenced public knowledge of the subject matter. A survey was conducted in Abuja, Enugu, Ikeja and Port Harcourt. Editors of four newspapers in Nigeria were interviewed. Results indicated that the mass media did not rank the highest as sources of information for the audience on climate change, and they (media) did not significantly influence public knowledge of climate change. This finding differed from results of studies in the US. Respondents linked climate change to changes in weather patterns. This study recommended that opinion polls are necessary to see where audience interests lies as well as how much media views influence public understanding in terms of communication effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the effects of vegetation cover and soil parameters on the climate change projections of a regional climate model over the Arctic domain. Different setups of the land surface model of the regional climate model HIRHAM were realized to analyze differences in the atmospheric circulation caused by (1) the incorporation of freezing/thawing of soil moisture, (2) the consideration of top organic soil horizons typical for the Arctic and (3) a vegetation shift due to a changing climate. The largest direct thermal effect in 2 m air temperature was found for the vegetation shift, which ranged between −1.5 K and 3 K. The inclusion of a freeze/thaw scheme for soil moisture shows equally large sensitivities in spring over cool areas with high soil moisture content. Although the sensitivity signal in 2 m air temperature for the experiments differs in amplitude, all experiments show changes in mean sea level pressure (mslp) and geopotential height (z) throughout the troposphere of similar magnitude (mslp: −2 hPa to 1.5 hPa, z: −15 gpm to 5 gpm). This points to the importance of dynamical feedbacks within the atmosphere-land system. Land and soil processes have a distinct remote influence on large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in addition to their direct, regional effects. The assessment of induced uncertainties due to the changed implementations of land surface processes discussed in this study demonstrates the need to take all those processes for future Arctic climate projections into account, and demonstrates a clear need to include similar implementations in regional and global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequently heard call to harmonize adaptation and mitigation policies is well intended and many opportunities exist to realize co-benefits by designing and implementing both in mutually supportive ways. But critical tradeoffs (inadequate conditions, competition among means for implementation, and negative consequences of pursuing both simultaneously) also exist, along with policy disconnects that are shaped by history, sequencing, scale, contextual variables, and controversial climate discourses in the public. To ignore these issues can be expected to undermine a more comprehensive, better integrated climate risk management portfolio. The paper discusses various implications of these tradeoffs between adaptation and mitigation for science and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper suggests that the Polar Regions are excellent places for thinking about historical interactions between climate change, science, and politics from the beginning of the Cold War up to the present. Since the second half of the 1940s, science has played a central role in contesting claims to political authority in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Research conducted in the Polar Regions has made a major contribution to the science of climate change on a global scale, and research agendas have been closely connected in the two regions. Viewed from a comparative perspective, however, the historical experiences of global warming in the Arctic and Antarctica have been quite different. Climate research has suggested that warming is generally happening faster over much of the Arctic than the Antarctic. In addition, the recent histories of the two regions show that climate change in the Arctic is destabilizing politics there, whereas in Antarctica climate change is helping to reinforce the existing political structures framed by the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). A comparative approach to the history of climate change in the Polar Regions helps to demonstrate that science, politics, and environmental change have each played important roles without making any single factor deterministic. WIREs Clim Change 2012, 3:145-159. doi: 10.1002/wcc.161 For further resources related to this article, please visit the . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of the global warming process are obliged to include many important small-scale processes that cannot be explicitly represented, given the low spatial and temporal resolution at which the models can be integrated. As the parameterizations of these processes, in terms of the resolved scale fields, must be tuned to permit them to enable the models to fit climate observations from the instrumental era, it is an issue as to whether such models remain robust when they are applied to the prediction of future warming trends. Geological inferences of past climate conditions provide a means by which the robustness of the models may be assessed. In this paper, two examples of such tests are described, both of which demonstrate that a state-of-the-art model is able to accurately simulate past conditions that differ radically from modern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key issue of climate change is to identify the forcings and their relative contributions. The solar-climate relationship is currently the matter of a fierce debate. We address here the need for high quality observations and an adequate statistical approach. A recent work by Le Mouël et al. (2010) and its companion paper by Kossobokov et al. (2010) show spectacular correlations between solar activity and temperature series from three European weather stations over the last two centuries. We question both the data and the method used in these works. We stress (1) that correlation with solar forcing alone is meaningless unless other forcings are properly accounted for and that sunspot counting is a poor indicator of solar irradiance, (2) that long temperature series require homogenization to remove historical artefacts that affect long term variability, (3) that incorrect application of statistical tests leads to interpret as significant a signal which arises from pure random fluctuations. As a consequence, we reject the results and the conclusions of Le Mouël et al. (2010) and Kossobokov et al. (2010). We believe that our contribution bears some general interest in removing confusion from the scientific debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 'Copenhagen Accord' fails to deliver the political framework for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding international climate agreement beyond 2012. The current climate policy regime dynamics are insufficient to reflect the realities of topical complexity, actor coalitions, as well as financial, legal and institutional challenges in the light of extreme time constraints to avoid 'dangerous' climate change of more than 2°C. In this paper we analyze these stumbling blocks for international climate policy and discuss alternatives in order to regain momentum for future negotiations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we investigate the impacts of future climatic change on the occurrence of debris flows in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps). Two distinct aspects are discussed: the impact of future climatic change on the evolution of the process, and changes in the spatial distribution. Three climate simulations are presented for the current period (1970–1999) and for future periods (2070–2099) using GCM ARPEGE CLIMAT model developed by Météo-France. Simulated data are then statistically downscaled to obtain a higher spatial resolution. In the first step, we compare occurrence probabilities in the current period and in the next century. In the second step, we estimate which zones would be affected by the process in the future at the scale of the Massif des Ecrins. For the current period, the best model was obtained between debris flows and the number of days between June 15th and October 15th with more than 20 mm calculated either from observed meteorological or simulated data. Results of the ARPEGE model considering the A2 hypothesis (IPCC ) showed that the most significant climatic trends for the end of the century will be a decrease in intense rainy events and an increase in temperature. These trends are expected to reduce the occurrence of hill slope debris flows in the Massif des Ecrins. From a spatial point of view, the increase in temperature should result in a shift of the 0°C isotherm to a higher elevation which, in turn, should result in a 20% reduction of the number of slopes affected by the process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the robustness of the long-run, cointegrating, relationship between global temperatures and radiative forcing. It is found that the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of radiative forcing is of the order of 2 ± 1°C. This result is robust across the sample period of 1850 to 2000, thus providing further confirmation of the quantitative impact of radiative forcing and, in particular, CO2 forcing, on temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological and oceanographic data from ships of opportunity are the largest contributor to the world’s ocean surface database and thus are extensively used to estimate the change in climatic properties over the world’s oceans during the previous 150 years. The importance of these data for climate change studies underscores the need to fully understand the error associated with averages of these data. The sampling error problem is especially acute for ship data due to the fact that ships are moving platforms and, thus, report observations from constantly varying locations with time. This paper develops a theoretical framework for assessing the averaged sampling error associated with monthly, 1°×1° latitude-longitude box averaged ship data. It should be noted that the time-space distribution of ships within the averaging domain strongly affects the sampling error. This is shown in our derivation. The framework developed here can be used to improve upon existing methods for estimating the sampling error associated with three-dimensional box averages of meteorological and oceanographic data obtained from ship records. The framework is complimentary to existing methods of assessing biases and random error due to instrumentation, recording, etc. It is demonstrated mathematically that the uncertainty due to incomplete sampling is primarily a trade off between of the number of observations and their relative locations within the box as well as the inherent time-space correlation structure of the variable of interest. This work differs from other studies in that the three-dimensional interdependence of data is taken into account in deriving an expression for the sampling error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to less natural snow reliability as a result of climate change on the one hand, and the demand of higher standards by winter tourists on the other hand, the production of artificial snow in ski resorts has increased substantially during the last 20 years and is likely to increase further in future. Little research has been conducted on the impact of snowmaking as a water demand stakeholder on a regional water balance. In this paper, a regional water balance (water demand-water resources) is analysed for the greater Kitzbueheler Region in the Austrian Alps, for the current situation and a future climate change scenario (28C warming). For this temperature rise a significant reduction in natural snow cover duration and snow accumulation is predicted, an effect that increases with lower altitudes and differs between the winter months. Due to the shortening of the winter season, a change in seasonality of river flows and available water resources (ground and surface water) occurs. Both increase in winter, and decrease in spring. The water demand for improvement snowmaking increases, especially in the month of March. However, December proved to be the critical month due to the large amounts of water required for base snowmaking both now and in future. These results stress the necessity of reservoir storage for base snowmaking on a regional level. Water availability during other months but winter is sufficient to fill these reservoirs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how project economics and decision making in industry can be affected by global climate change. When assessing the sustainability of any design or project, one of the key emerging considerations is the potential for the decision to contribute to greenhouse house gas (GHG) emissions. Changes in climate may also lead to new project risks with further economic implications. Design/methodology/approach - Examination of the wider social economic implications of climate change provides the basis for considering individual projects within the context of the social costs of carbon emissions, the prospect of the gradual internalisation of those costs, and the costs and benefits of adaptation to protect against the impacts of global change on the project. Findings - Emissions of greenhouse gases, still widely not priced in many parts of the world, drive the emerging observed and predicted effects of climate change on the planet. This damage has real value and can be monetised, allowing a notional social cost of carbon to be estimated. As climate change continues to manifest itself, societies start to react, constraining emissions and creating a market price or tax for carbon. If economic analysis for project decision making includes an explicit consideration of the likely future trajectory of carbon prices, and also examines the wider external social costs of carbon, the benefits of early adoption of revenue-positive measures to reduce emissions are revealed. In the same way, the financial costs of procrastination are made increasingly evident as regulatory and economic baselines shift. Designing for inevitable climate change will also help industry future-proof their operations. Practical implications - At present, relatively few organisations examine the financial and economic implications of carbon emissions or the effects of a changing climate on their operations. To avoid unnecessary costs, and maximise benefit for stakeholders, decision making for business and government needs to incorporate an explicit economic treatment of the current and likely future implications of operating in a climate-constrained and climate-impacted world. Originality/value - By conducting the kind of analysis proposed, organisations can not only help to reduce GHG emissions, but can also improve their own financial performance. The value of this analysis will only increase over the coming decades of the climate-change era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the spatial dependence of annual diurnal temperature range (DTR) trends from 1950–2004 on the annual climatology of three variables: precipitation, cloud cover, and leaf area index (LAI), by classifying the global land into various climatic regions based on the climatological annual precipitation. The regional average trends for annual minimum temperature ( T min) and DTR exhibit significant spatial correlations with the climatological values of these three variables, while such correlation for annual maximum temperature ( T max) is very weak. In general, the magnitude of the downward trend of DTR and the warming trend of T min decreases with increasing precipitation amount, cloud cover, and LAI, i.e., with stronger DTR decreasing trends over drier regions. Such spatial dependence of T min and DTR trends on the climatological precipitation possibly reflects large-scale effects of increased global greenhouse gases and aerosols (and associated changes in cloudiness, soil moisture, and water vapor) during the later half of the twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate models (RCMs) are dynamical downscaling tools aimed to improve the modelling of local physical processes. Ensembles of RCMs are widely used to improve the coarse-grain estimates of global climate models (GCMs) since the use of several RCMs helps to palliate uncertainties arising from different dynamical cores and numerical schemes methods. In this paper, we analyse the differences and similarities in the climate change response for an ensemble of heterogeneous RCMs forced by one GCM (HadAM3H), and one emissions scenario (IPCC's SRES-A2 scenario). As a difference with previous approaches using PRUDENCE database, the statistical description of climate characteristics is made through the spatial and temporal aggregation of the RCMs outputs into probability distribution functions (PDF) of monthly values. This procedure is a complementary approach to conventional seasonal analyses. Our results provide new, stronger evidence on expected marked regional differences in Europe in the A2 scenario in terms of precipitation and temperature changes. While we found an overall increase in the mean temperature and extreme values, we also found mixed regional differences for precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The natural resources of the Okavango Delta, a large wetland in semi-arid Botswana, form the basis of livelihoods of the local population and support economically important high-end tourism. The hydro-ecological system is dynamic at various time scales, responding to climate variability, and both flood and drought conditions have in the past put pressure on the system's users. Human-induced climate change can potentially exacerbate the effects of existing climate variability. In this paper, we present simulated future hydro-ecological conditions in the Okavango Delta generated by a step-wise modelling procedure. The outputs of three different global climate models are used to drive a suite of hydrological models. Lastly, a rule-based dynamic model relates hydroperiod conditions to vegetation assemblages. The simulated future conditions vary from much drier to much wetter than those recorded in the past. Models indicate that climatic change would result in change in both extent and distribution of the major ecotopes of the Okavango Delta. Importantly, the different ecotopes will be affected to varying degrees. The projected changes will have consequences for the wildlife-based management of the system. They will affect, for example, available grazing and migration/movement patterns of large herbivores, as well as fish. Such consequences can have rapid up-trophic level effects, ultimately leading to potentially substantial impacts on the economy. The main conclusion to be drawn is that management planning and land-use systems should be as flexible as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) demands stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. This requires an unprecedented degree of international action for emission reductions and technological change in the energy sector. Extending the established optimal control approach, the paper combines the concepts of adaptive control, inverse modeling and local optimization to climate change decision-making and management. An alternative decision model is described where controls are adjusted towards a moving target under changing conditions. A framework for integrated assessment is introduced, where a basic climate model is coupled to an economic production function with energy as a production factor, which is controlled by the allocation of investments to alternative energy technologies. Investment strategies are shaped by value functions, including utility, costs and climate damages for a given future time horizon, which are translated into admissible emission limits to keep atmospheric carbon concentrations and global mean temperature asymptotically below a given threshold. Conditions for switching between management and technology paths with different costs and carbon intensities are identified. To take account of the substantial uncertainties, an exemplary case discusses the sensitivity of the results to variation of crucial parameters, in particular time discounting, climate damage, taxes and time horizon for decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper surveys the energy problem in relation to global warming and the social criteria of India. India's failure to develop a policy on global warming is highlighted and her economic policy judged in relation to her energy options, including such notable work as jatropha development and nuclear energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The transportation sector, led by the automobile, has been cited constantly as a major contributor through human intervention to climate change. Short of banning car use, the challenge remains one of understanding better what mix of actions might contribute in non-marginal ways to reducing the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the absolute amount of CO2 produced by automobiles. This paper evaluates instruments aimed at a number of policy objectives linked to efficiency, sustainability and equity, focusing on social surplus gains in addition to cost effectiveness; but in particular the ability to reduce CO2. TRESIS, an integrated transport, land use and environmental strategy impact simulation program, is used to assess the influence on CO2 of a number of ‘at source’ and ‘mitigation’ instruments such as improvements in fuel efficiency, a carbon tax, variable user charges, and improvements in public transit. TRESIS is applied to the Sydney metropolitan area with instruments enacted in 2010 up to 2015. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change is already occurring in the Arctic and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment recently concluded that future climate change could be devastating for Inuit. This paper characterises vulnerability to climate change in two Inuit communities in the Canadian territory of Nunavut, focusing on the resource harvesting sector. In both communities, Inuit have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of current changes in climatic conditions. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in resource use, and institutional support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities. Global and regional climate projections indicate that climatic conditions which currently pose risks are expected to be negatively affected by future climate change. These projections are not without precedent and analysis of current vulnerability and identification of adaptation constraints by Inuit in the two communities indicate the continued importance of traditional coping mechanisms. The ability to draw on these coping mechanisms in light of future climate change, however, will be unequal and the research indicates that young Inuit and those without access to economic resources, in particular, are vulnerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainties in observed records of atmospheric temperature aloft remain poorly quantified. This has resulted in considerable controversy regarding signals of climate change over recent decades from temperature records of radiosondes and satellites. This work revisits the problems associated with the removal of inhomogeneities from the historical radiosonde temperature records, and provides a method for quantifying uncertainty in an adjusted radiosonde climate record due to the subjective choices made during the data homogenization. This paper presents an automated homogenization method designed to replicate the decisions made by manual judgment in the generation of an earlier radiosonde dataset [i.e., the Hadley Centre radiosonde temperature dataset (HadAT)]. A number of validation experiments have been conducted to test the system performance and impact on linear trends. Using climate model data to simulate biased radiosonde data, the authors show that limitations in the homogenization method are sufficiently large to explain much of the tropical trend discrepancy between HadAT and estimates from satellite platforms and climate models. This situation arises from the combination of systematic (unknown magnitude) and random uncertainties (of order 0.05 K decade-1) in the radiosonde data. Previous assessment of trends and uncertainty in HadAT is likely to have underestimated the systematic bias in tropical mean temperature trends. This objective assessment of radiosonde homogenization supports the conclusions of the synthesis report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), and associated research, regarding potential bias in tropospheric temperature records from radiosondes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the basis of sediment and pollen analyses of a radiocarbon-dated sediment sequence from Lake Joux in the Swiss Jura Mountains (west-central Europe), this paper presents a high-resolution record of lake-level and vegetation changes for the last millennium. The lake-level record makes it possible to determine that lowstands of the water-table dominated at c. AD 1200-1400, and from 1720 onward, with interruptions by short-lived rise events at c. AD 1340 and 1840. Highstands prevailed at c. AD 1100, and around AD 1450, 1550 and 1700. The comparison of the Joux lake-level record with a solar irradiance record based on cosmogenic nucleides supports the hypothesis of a major solar forcing of climate variations in west-central Europe over the last millennium. In agreement with other palaeohydrological records established in Western Europe and in the central North Atlantic Ocean, the Joux lake-level record suggests that, on a multicentennial scale, the period of the 'Little Ice Age' coincided in the European mid-latitudes with wetter climatic conditions, and probably with an increase in summer precipitation. Variations in the hydrological cycle appear to have been associated with changes in the general atmospheric circulation pattern, probably coupled with variations in oceanic circulation and solar activity. The Joux record also points to changes in water resources expected to result from ongoing global warming. Finally, despite the severe climatic conditions which prevail in the Joux Valley, the human impact history at Lake Joux over the last millennium seems to reflect political choices and economic context more than climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records (INTIMATE) is a core project of the INQUA Palaeoclimate Commission, the primary goal of which is to synchronise records of the Last Glacial–Interglacial Transition (LGIT). Through a series of international workshops, INTIMATE has encouraged direct collaboration between scientists with interests and expertise in a wide range of palaeoenvironmental approaches. The workshops have focused on the dissemination of good practice in the dating, correlation and synthesis of diverse palaeoenvironmental records that span the LGIT. This special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews presents some of the outcomes of the 8th INTIMATE International Workshop held in Iceland in September 2005, and focuses on four themes considered vital to INTIMATE''s long-term strategy. (1) An event stratigraphy approach, which uses the Greenland oxygen isotope record as a stratotype sequence, lies at the core of INTIMATE''s operations. A revised event stratigraphy scheme for application to North Atlantic LGIT records is presented, which is based on the new GICC05 Greenland ice-core chronology. (2) New tree-ring data from Switzerland and the application of Bayesian-based procedures in the analysis of comprehensive radiocarbon data sets provide much potential for reducing the uncertainties in radiocarbon-based age models. (3) Three of the contributions present new evidence that helps to refine the tephrostratigraphy of the LGIT in the NE Atlantic and New Zealand regions. (4) Establishing the precise order and synchroneity of events during the LGIT is vital to understand the causes and effects of abrupt climate change. Data are presented from the Baltic region and Alaska, which vary in degree of compatibility with North Atlantic records. Two final papers consider the roles of Dansgaard–Oeschger events on thermokarst during the Middle Weichselian and of solar activity variations during the mid-Holocene; both illustrate how the INTIMATE event stratigraphy approach can apply to the study of other time intervals. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The transport sector is consistently responsible for around 30 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions in developed countries and is one of few sectors where emissions continue to increase as a result of apparently insatiable demand for road and air travel. This paper examines how the formulation of transport policy fits into the exposition of UK climate policy, focusing on three principal areas of tension: policy priority (congestion and carbon reduction); strategies to reduce emissions (technological and behavioural solutions) and timescale (short- and long-term vision). We suggest that in overcoming such tensions government ministers will need to devolve significant policy formulation and implementation powers to an appropriate scale of governance – in this case the city-region – to fashion a ‘convergence space’ capable of promoting meaningful action with regard to transport's climate impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]