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A variety of observational and modeling studies show that changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) can induce rapid global-scale climate change. In particular, a substantially weakened AMOC leads to a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in both the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. However, the simulated amplitudes of the AMOC-induced tropical climate change differ substantially among different models. In this paper, the sensitivity to cloud feedback of the climate response to a change in the AMOC is studied using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model [the GFDL Coupled Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1)]. Without cloud feedback, the simulated AMOC-induced climate change in this model is weakened substantially. Low-cloud feedback has a strong amplifying impact on the tropical ITCZ shift in this model, whereas the effects of high-cloud feedback are weaker. It is concluded that cloud feedback is an important contributor to the uncertainty in the global response to AMOC changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review paper discusses the physical basis and the potential for decadal climate predictability over the Atlantic and its adjacent land areas. Many observational and modeling studies describe pronounced decadal and multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean. However, it still needs to be quantified to which extent the variations in the ocean drive variations in the atmosphere and over land. In particular, although a clear impact of the Tropics on the midlatitudes has been demonstrated, it is unclear if and how the extratropical atmosphere responds to midlatitudinal sea surface temperature anomalies. Although the mechanisms behind the decadal to multidecadal variability in the Atlantic sector are still controversial, there is some consensus that some of the longer-term multidecadal variability is driven by variations in the thermohaline circulation. The variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation appear to be predictable one to two decades ahead, as shown by a number of perfect model predictability experiments. The next few decades will be dominated by these multidecadal variations, although the effects of anthropogenic climate change are likely to introduce trends. Some impact of the variations of the thermohaline circulation on the atmosphere has been demonstrated in some studies so that useful decadal predictions with economic benefit may be possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the “CLIMBER-3α” coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, the effect of a stratification-dependent vertical diffusivity on the sensitivity of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation to perturbations in freshwater forcing is investigated. The vertical diffusivity κ is calculated as κ ∼ N-α, where N is the local buoyancy frequency and the parameter α is a measure of the sensitivity of the vertical diffusivity to changes in stratification. Independent of α, the stratification of the deep ocean is weakly increased as a response to an anomalous freshwater flux in the North Atlantic in these experiments. In the region of freshwater forcing and north of it this is caused by the freshwater anomaly itself, but farther south it is associated with anomalously warm surface waters caused by a reduction of the northward oceanic heat transport. Subsequently, and in opposition to results from previous studies, the overturning is reduced by the anomalous freshwater flux, independent of the choice of α. However, the amount of reduction in overturning following a freshwater perturbation is found to depend critically on the choice of the mixing sensitivity α. If α < αcr, the response is similar to the model’s response using constant vertical diffusivity (α = 0). For α > αcr, a sharp increase of the sensitivity is found. The value of αcr is found to be between 0.5 and 1. A general feedback is proposed explaining this threshold behavior: if α is large, both positive and negative perturbations of stratification are amplified by associated changes in diffusivity. In the experiments presented here, this enhances the initial positive stratification anomaly in northern high latitudes, which is created by the anomalous freshwater flux. As a result, convection is strongly reduced, and the overturning is significantly weakened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4 x CO2 scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study used a new net surface heat flux (Qnet) product obtained from the Objective Analyzed Air–Sea Fluxes (OAFlux) project and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) to examine two specific issues—one is to which degree Qnet controls seasonal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (20°S–20°N, east of 60°W), and the other is whether the physical relation can serve as a measure to evaluate the physical representation of a heat flux product. To better address the two issues, the study included the analysis of three additional heat flux products: the Southampton Oceanographic Centre (SOC) heat flux analysis based on ship reports, and the model fluxes from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The study also uses the monthly subsurface temperature fields from the World Ocean Atlas to help analyze the seasonal changes of the mixed layer depth (hMLD). The study showed that the tropical Atlantic sector could be divided into two regimes based on the influence level of Qnet. SST variability poleward of 5°S and 10°N is dominated by the annual cycle of Qnet. In these regions the warming (cooling) of the sea surface is highly correlated with the increased (decreased) Qnet confined in a relatively shallow (deep) hMLD. The seasonal evolution of SST variability is well predicted by simply relating the local Qnet with a variable hMLD. On the other hand, the influence of Qnet diminishes in the deep Tropics within 5°S and 10°N and ocean dynamic processes play a dominant role. The dynamics-induced changes in SST are most evident along the two belts, one of which is located on the equator and the other off the equator at about 3°N in the west, which tilts to about 10°N near the northwestern African coast. The study also showed that if the degree of consistency between the correlation relationships of Qnet, hMLD, and SST variability serves as a measure of the quality of the Qnet product, then the Qnet from OAFlux + ISCCP and ERA-40 are most physically representative, followed by SOC. The NCEP–NCAR Qnet is least representative. It should be noted that the Qnet from OAFlux + ISCCP and ERA-40 have a quite different annual mean pattern. OAFlux + ISCCP agrees with SOC in that the tropical Atlantic sector gains heat from the atmosphere on the annual mean basis, where the ERA-40 and the NCEP–NCAR model reanalyses indicate that positive Qnet occurs only in the narrow equatorial band and in the eastern portion of the tropical basin. Nevertheless, seasonal variances of the Qnet from OAFlux + ISCCP and ERA-40 are very similar once the respective mean is removed, which explains why the two agree with each other in accounting for the seasonal variability of SST. In summary, the study suggests that an accurate estimation of surface heat flux is crucially important for understanding and predicting SST fluctuations in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. It also suggests that future emphasis on improving the surface heat flux estimation should be placed more on reducing the mean bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability of coupled GCMs to correctly simulate the climatology and a prominent mode of variability of the West African monsoon is evaluated, and the results are used to make informed decisions about which models may be producing more reliable projections of future climate in this region. The integrations were made available by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The evaluation emphasizes the circulation characteristics that support the precipitation climatology, and the physical processes of a “rainfall dipole” variability mode that is often associated with dry conditions in the Sahel when SSTs in the Gulf of Guinea are anomalously warm. Based on the quality of their twentieth-century simulations over West Africa in summer, three GCMs are chosen for analysis of the twenty-first century integrations under various assumptions about future greenhouse gas increases. Each of these models behaves differently in the twenty-first-century simulations. One model simulates severe drying across the Sahel in the later part of the twenty-first century, while another projects quite wet conditions throughout the twenty-first century. In the third model, warming in the Gulf of Guinea leads to more modest drying in the Sahel due to a doubling of the number of anomalously dry years by the end of the century. An evaluation of the physical processes that cause these climate changes, in the context of the understanding about how the system works in the twentieth century, suggests that the third model provides the most reasonable projection of the twenty-first-century climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]