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Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Tsunami deposits contain information about the flow that created them which can be interpreted to estimate tsunami magnitude. Sandy deposits near Sendai Airport are modeled using an inverse sediment transport model to explore the spatial and temporal variation of tsunami flow speed in the 11 March 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. The 2011 deposits contain grain-size signatures of both sediment transport convergences and sediment settling out of suspension. Sediment transport convergences form massive or inversely graded intervals. Sediment falling out of suspension forms a specific type of normal grading, termed suspension grading. The Jaffe and Gelfenbaum (2007) inverse sediment transport model, which relates the thickness and bulk grain size of suspension-graded intervals to tsunami flow speed, was applied to 24 suspension-graded intervals, ranging in thickness from 2 to 4cm, at 7 trenches located from about 250 to 1350m inland from the shoreline. Modeled tsunami flow speeds range from 2.2 to 9.0m/s, and were strongly dependent on the choice of Manning''s n roughness parameterization. Flow speeds were highest from about 75–300m landward of the forested sand dunes where the tsunami encountered lower roughness in a low-lying area as it traveled downslope, and decreased by 16% as the tsunami moved inland over the subsequent 596m. As many as 5 suspension-graded intervals, interpreted as forming during the onshore flow of up to 5 waves, were identified at each location, with a tendency for an inland decrease in the number of suspension-graded intervals suggesting fewer waves inland. Tsunami flows tended to be fastest in the lower two intervals (earlier waves) and slowest in the uppermost interval (last wave) of the deposits. Modeled reconstructions of the suspension-graded intervals at a vertical resolution of 1-cm reproduced observed upward fining of the distributions reasonably well, supporting the use of the inverse model. Estimates of the time required to form 99% of the thickness of the suspension-graded intervals ranged 2 to 5min, allowing that sediment falling from suspension could have formed these portions of the deposits in the time between waves. Application of the inverse model to determine paleotsunami flow speeds from deposits, although now possible, is complicated by uncertainty in roughness. As inverse approaches to estimating roughness and tsunami flow speed improve, the magnitude of paleotsunamis will be better understood and the ability to assess tsunami hazard from paleotsunami deposits will improve. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A combination of numeric hydrodynamic models, a large-clast inverse sediment-transport model, and extensive field measurements were used to discriminate between a tsunami and a storm striking Anegada, BVI a few centuries ago. In total, 161 cobbles and boulders were measured ranging from 1.5 to 830 kg at distances of up to 1 km from the shoreline and 2 km from the crest of a fringing coral reef. Transported clasts are composed of low porosity limestone and were derived from outcrops in the low lying interior of Anegada. Estimates of the near-bed flow velocities required to transport the observed boulders were calculated using a simple sediment-transport model, which accounts for fluid drag, inertia, buoyancy, and lift forces on boulders and includes both sliding and overturning transport mechanisms. Estimated near-bed flow velocities are converted to depth-averaged velocities using a linear eddy viscosity model and compared with water level and depth-averaged velocity time series from high-resolution coastal inundation models. Coastal inundation models simulate overwash by the storm surge and waves of a category 5 hurricane and tsunamis from a Lisbon earthquake of M 9.0 and two hypothetical earthquakes along the North America Caribbean Plate boundary. A modeled category 5 hurricane and three simulated tsunamis were all capable of inundating the boulder fields and transporting a portion of the observed clasts, but only an earthquake of M 8.0 on a normal fault of the outer rise along the Puerto Rico Trench was found to be capable of transporting the largest clasts at their current locations. Model results show that while both storm waves and tsunamis are capable of generating velocities and temporal acceleration necessary to transport large boulders near the reef crest, attenuation of wave energy due to wave breaking and bottom friction limits the capacity of storm waves to transport large clast at great inland distances. Through sensitivity analysis, we show that even when using coefficients in the sediment-transport model which yield the lowest estimated minimum velocities for boulder transport, storm waves from a category 5 hurricane are not capable of transporting the largest boulders in the interior of Anegada. Because of the uncertainties in the modeling approach, extensive sensitivity analyses are included and limitations are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal communities in the western United States face risks of inundation by distant tsunamis that propagate across the Pacific Ocean as well as local tsunamis produced by great (M > 8) earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone. In 1964, the M 9.2 Alaska earthquake launched a Pacific-wide tsunami that flooded Cannon Beach, a small community (population 1640) in northwestern Oregon, causing over $230,000 in damages. However, since the giant 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2010 Chile tsunami and the recent 2011 Tohoku-Oki tsunami, renewed concern over potential impacts of a Cascadia tsunami on the western US has motivated closer examination of the local hazard. This study applies a simple sediment transport model to reconstruct the flow speed of the most recent Cascadia tsunami that flooded the region in 1700 using the thickness and grain size of sand layers deposited by the waves. Sedimentary properties of sand from the 1700 tsunami deposit provide model inputs. The sediment transport model calculates tsunami flow speed from the shear velocity required to suspend the quantity and grain size distribution of the observed sand layers. The model assumes a steady, spatially uniform tsunami flow and that sand settles out of suspension forming a deposit when the flow velocity decreases to zero. Using flow depths constrained by numerical tsunami simulations for Cannon Beach, the sediment transport model calculated flow speeds of 6.5-7.6 m/s for sites within 0.6 km of the beach and higher flow speeds (~8.8 m/s) for sites 0.8-1.2 km inland. Flow speed calculated for sites within 0.6 km of the beach compare well with maximum velocities estimated for the largest tsunami simulation. The higher flow speeds calculated for the two sites furthest landward contrast with much lower maximum velocities (<3.8 m/s) predicted by numerical simulations. Grain size distributions of sand layers from the most distal sites are inconsistent with deposition from sediment falling out of suspension. We infer that rapid deceleration in tsunami flow and convergences in sediment transport formed unusually thick deposits. Consequently, higher flow speeds calculated by the sediment model probably overestimate the actual wave speed at sites furthest inland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: While the destruction caused by a tsunami can vary significantly owing to near- and onshore controls, we have only a limited quantitative understanding of how different local parameters influence the onshore response of tsunamis. Here, a numerical model based on the non-linear shallow water equations is first shown to agree well with analytical expressions developed for periodic long waves inundating over planar slopes. More than 13,000 simulations are then conducted to examine the effects variations in the wave characteristics, bed slopes, and bottom roughness have on maximum tsunami run-up and water velocity at the still water shoreline. While deviations from periodic waves and planar slopes affect the onshore dynamics, the details of these effects depend on a combination of factors. In general, the effects differ for breaking and non-breaking waves, and are related to the relative shift of the waves along the breaking–non-breaking wave continuum. Variations that shift waves toward increased breaking, such as steeper wave fronts, tend to increase the onshore impact of non-breaking waves, but decrease the impact of already breaking waves. The onshore impact of a tsunami composed of multiple waves can be different from that of a single wave tsunami, with the largest difference occurring on long, shallow onshore topographies. These results demonstrate that the onshore response of a tsunami is complex, and that using analytical expressions derived from simplified conditions may not always be appropriate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a simple model for tsunami sedimentation that can be applied to calculate tsunami flow speed from the thickness and grain size of a tsunami deposit (the inverse problem). For sandy tsunami deposits where grain size and thickness vary gradually in the direction of transport, tsunami sediment transport is modeled as a steady, spatially uniform process. The amount of sediment in suspension is assumed to be in equilibrium with the steady portion of the long period, slowing varying uprush portion of the tsunami. Spatial flow deceleration is assumed to be small and not to contribute significantly to the tsunami deposit. Tsunami deposits are formed from sediment settling from the water column when flow speeds on land go to zero everywhere at the time of maximum tsunami inundation. There is little erosion of the deposit by return flow because it is a slow flow and is concentrated in topographic lows. Variations in grain size of the deposit are found to have more effect on calculated tsunami flow speed than deposit thickness. The model is tested using field data collected at Arop, Papua New Guinea soon after the 1998 tsunami. Speed estimates of 14 m/s at 200 m inland from the shoreline compare favorably with those from a 1-D inundation model and from application of Bernoulli''s principle to water levels on buildings left standing after the tsunami. As evidence that the model is applicable to some sandy tsunami deposits, the model reproduces the observed normal grading and vertical variation in sorting and skewness of a deposit formed by the 1998 tsunami. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Researchers who study tsunami deposits share common ultimate goals of their work, which are to better assess the magnitude information of paleotsunamis and to contribute to the assessment of future tsunami risks. Numerical modeling of tsunami sediment transport is an important piece of interdisciplinary research that fills the gap between geological studies and practical utilization of tsunami deposits. Forward and inverse numerical models that address tsunami transport of sand and boulders have been developed over the last two decades. Forward models are capable of delineating the time evolution of tsunami hydrodynamics, sediment transport and the resulting morphological changes associated with erosion and deposition. Inverse models estimate tsunami characteristics, such as flow speed and depth, from deposits. Numerical modeling can be used not only to quantify paleotsunamis but also to enhance our understanding of tsunami sedimentology and hydrodynamics. To make progress towards the ultimate goal of improved tsunami risk assessment, development of an in-depth mutual understanding between modelers and geologists of the advantages, limitations and uncertainties in both numerical modeling and geological records is an important challenge. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Modern subaerial sand beds deposited by major tsunamis and hurricanes were compared at trench, transect, and sub-regional spatial scales to evaluate which attributes are most useful for distinguishing the two types of deposits. Physical criteria that may be diagnostic include: sediment composition, textures and grading, types and organization of stratification, thickness, geometry, and landscape conformity. Published reports of Pacific Ocean tsunami impacts and our field observations suggest that sandy tsunami deposits are generally <25 cm thick, extend hundreds of meters inland from the beach, and fill microtopography but generally conform to the antecedent landscape. They commonly are a single homogeneous bed that is normally graded overall, or that consists of only a few thin layers. Mud intraclasts and mud laminae within the deposit are strong evidence of tsunami deposition. Twig orientation or other indicators of return flow during bed aggradation are also diagnostic of tsunami deposits. Sandy storm deposits tend to be >30 cm thick, generally extend <300 m from the beach, and will not advance beyond the antecedent macrotopography they are able to fill. They typically are composed of numerous subhorizontal planar laminae organized into multiple laminasets that are normally or inversely graded, they do not contain internal mud laminae and rarely contain mud intraclasts. Application of these distinguishing characteristics depends on their preservation potential and any deposit modifications that accompany burial. The distinctions between tsunami and storm deposits are related to differences in the hydrodynamics and sediment-sorting processes during transport. Tsunami deposition results from a few high-velocity, long-period waves that entrain sediment from the shoreface, beach, and landward erosion zone. Tsunamis can have flow depths greater than 10 m, transport sediment primarily in suspension, and distribute the load over a broad region where sediment falls out of suspension when flow decelerates. In contrast, storm inundation generally is gradual and prolonged, consisting of many waves that erode beaches and dunes with no significant overland return flow until after the main flooding. Storm flow depths are commonly <3 m, sediment is transported primarily as bed load by traction, and the load is deposited within a zone relatively close to the beach. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Morphodynamic equilibrium is a widely adopted yet elusive concept in the field of geomorphology of coasts, rivers and estuaries. Based on the Exner equation, an expression of mass conservation of sediment, we distinguish three types of equilibrium defined as static and dynamic, of which two different types exist. Other expressions such as statistical and quasi-equilibrium which do not strictly satisfy the Exner conditions are also acknowledged for their practical use. The choice of a temporal scale is imperative to analyse the type of equilibrium. We discuss the difference between morphodynamic equilibrium in the “real world” (nature) and the “virtual world” (model). Modelling studies rely on simplifications of the real world and lead to understanding of process interactions. A variety of factors affect the use of virtual-world predictions in the real world (e.g., variability in environmental drivers and variability in the setting) so that the concept of morphodynamic equilibrium should be mathematically unequivocal in the virtual world and interpreted over the appropriate spatial and temporal scale in the real world. We draw examples from estuarine settings which are subject to various governing factors which broadly include hydrodynamics, sedimentology and landscape setting. Following the traditional “tide-wave-river” ternary diagram, we summarize studies to date that explore the “virtual world”, discuss the type of equilibrium reached and how it relates to the real world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]