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In the climate-development interface, research for development gained a strong interest in climate-smart agriculture and sustainable forms of intensification. Moreover, the urgency to respond to climate change stimulates a strong and sometimes exclusive focus on mitigation, driven by research-based agricultural practices. In the livestock sector, this materialises in strategies to lower emissions from livestock, which centralises the adoption question: what can we do to stimulate the use of best practices by smallholder farmers? This paper flags the risk that this outlook may overlooksmallholder farmers' capacities to navigate sub-optimal conditions of drought or scarcity. The paper applies an alternative lens for understanding 'agriculture-as-performance' and highlights smallholder cattle owners' agency and resourcefulness. It aims to create a conceptual space to examine how adaptive capacities are grounded in the rhythms of agriculture under suboptimal conditions. Empirically, the study focuses on the cattle-feeding practices of five farming households evolving through seasons and lifetimes in a sedentary agricultural system in Kenya. Our frame identifies diverse affordances, conceptualised as opportunities for actions, emerging and disappearing in the immediate material environment, and we portray cattle feeding as a networked response anchored in practices of giving, sharing, and receiving. We use our insights into the dynamics and performance of entangled socio-technical practices to sketch the contours of an alternative pathway for agriculture for development. We argue in favour of a shift from an exclusive focus on the adoption of predefined optimal solutions to a diagnostic and catalytic approach integrating situated adaptive performances through which farming households respond to action opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores farmers' perceptions of climate change and their preferred adaptive and mitigatory strategies within Slovakia's Nitra region, aiming to devise recommendations for climate change-oriented agricultural policies. Our methodology incorporates an analysis of perspectives gathered from a regional survey using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and SuperDecisions software, complemented by a risk-attitude assessment using the modified Multiple Price Lists (MPL) method. A subsequent heterogeneity analysis correlates these preferences with respondents' socio-economic status and risk attitudes. Our findings underscore the use of improved, resilient seeds as a favored adaptation measure and reveal a correlation between farmers' socio-economic attributes and their climate change strategy preferences. Based on this, we propose inclusive, micro-level agricultural policies that prioritize the unique climatic needs of the Nitra region and strongly consider the priority viewpoints of farmers within this region, aiming to promote sustainable agriculture under changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is becoming a defining factor for communities in South Asia. Forming one-fifth of the world population, the region increasingly faces climate-induced disasters such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, cyclones etc. This region also has one of the world's poorest people who struggle to cope with the rapidly changing climatic conditions. Agriculture still employs many people in the region, one of the worst-hit sectors. Agriculture will become untenable in some parts of the region due to climate change. Monsoon patterns have changed, and agriculture does not guarantee sustainable income for the vast majority. Many climate change adaptations have been initiated in the region in response to the threat of climate change. Scholars and practitioners feel that these adaptations must be transformative to be effective. In this paper, we examine eight such adaptations from three South Asian Countries – Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, from the lens of transformative adaptation. We found that no single adaptation initiative meets all the criteria for sustainable socio-ecological transformations. However, there is a significant overlap between different typologies of transformation as envisaged in the paper and literature. We conclude that the concept of socio-ecological transformation is new for South Asia, so integrating it into the programmes and policies is the need of the hour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has drawn the attention not only of scientists but of politicians and societies worldwide. The aim of this paper is to present a method for selecting research studies on climate change, waste management and the role of microbes in the recycling of organic matter in soil that analyze the role of organic agriculture as the main connection between agricultural losses and climate change. VOSviewer version 1.6.18 free software tool was used in this study in order to achieve the bibliometric and mapping approach for studies on the effects of climate change in terms of soil recycled organic matter and microbe interaction. Scopus database (accessed 29 September 2022) indexed a total of 1,245,809 bibliographic items classified into paradigms. The presented documents were downloaded from Scopus as graph-based maps and as distance-based maps in order to reflect the strength of the relation between the items. Climate change includes changes in soil and soil microorganisms as affected by natural climate variations and local weather, which have beneficial or negative effects on soil organic matter. From the examination of the selected papers, it was concluded that climate change and changing precipitation patterns are having an impact on microorganisms, particularly bacterial groups, and thus ecosystem function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overview of papers dealing with the analysis of current and future climate change on the territory of Russia and their impact on the crop productivity is presented. Using the reanalysis data for 1950–2020, trends in air temperature and precipitation are estimated for different regions of Russia. A correlation was found between changes in temperature and atmospheric circulation indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global Climate Change (GCC) and its responses are already changing how food is produced, processed, and consumed. The agriculture sector's recent history of hardships and challenges brought about by GCC has posed a significant danger to people's ability to acquire food, particularly in developing countries. Today, GCC impacts are already being felt across the globe, especially in remote and rural communities where vulnerability is high, adaptation capacity is limited, and resources are scarce. Therefore, finding sustainable, practical, and cutting-edge solutions to the challenges of GCC is essential. The United Nations 2030 agenda on sustainability aims to reshape the world's society by achieving a number of broad sustainable development goals (SDGs), which call for significant structural changes in society as well as profound transformations in policy, the economy, technology, and science. More specifically, agenda 2030 emphasizes the creation and effective application of models, technology innovations, and strategies that call for the full participation of all parties, including local and indigenous people and their experiences, traditions, and cultural practices. However, despite providing clear examples of sustainable lifestyles within their ecological environment, particularly in the equitable distribution of resources among community members, indigenous and local people's voices, knowledge, and concerns have remained underrepresented in the climate change and sustainability discourse. Thus, this paper advances the climate adaptation, resilience-building, and sustainability (CARS) model in agriculture in developing countries. The CARS model is meant for policymakers and hinges on integrating scientific knowledge with indigenous and local ecological knowledge (ILEK) in the climate change adaptation and sustainability discourse. This theoretical model supports the notion that an understanding of the indigenous and local ecological knowledge systems is critical to opening up an environment that supports community-based efforts to adapt to GCC by giving them options and engaging them in finding innovative, sustainable, and effective strategies to adapt to the impacts emanating from GCC. The ultimate goal of this model is to promote positive co-management and regional development through sustainability and climate change adaptation while generating a forum for discussion among indigenous and local communities and the relevant stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite being the most tangibly impacted by the first-order effects of a warming climate, much of Australia's agricultural regions have remained relatively conservative in their views on climate change and the need for adaptation. This paper aims to understand how the experience of an extreme climate event like the 2017–2020 drought might shift opinions and values on these issues within agricultural communities. Through in-depth interviews with 20 graziers across Northwest NSW during the worst days of the drought, we found that various psychological lock-ins, historical memories of resilience, and local cultural values appeared to be undermining the perception of their vulnerability, while enhancing perceptions of their ability to endure. Such discursive constructions appear to explain why a jarring climatic event like the 2017–2020 drought was failing to produce a noticeable shift in their views. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change remains a serious global problem posing a wide range of challenges and impacts which will likely hinder the attainment of the widely discussed sustainable development goals (SDGs). The impacts and threats from a changing climate have the potential to significantly impact all sectors of the global economy and will largely be multifaceted, multidimensional, and multi-sectoral. These adverse impacts will to a greater extent, be manifested at the local and community level where the adaptability capacity is weak and resources are scarce. In the last two decades, there has been growing support and evidence that suggests that local people and communities in partnership with their local governments and NGOs are undertaking community ecological based adaptation (CEBA) practices at both the local and community level which are enhancing their adaptability and resilience capacities to a changing climate. CEBA mechanisms are initiatives and practices that local and rural communities across the developing world are sometimes adopting in partnership with their local government and non-governmental organizations to adapt to a changing climate. However, over the years, these initiatives, experiments, and activities have been poorly actualized, communicated, and there is uncertainty on whether these practices and mechanisms are enhancing the adaptability and resilience capacities of the many poor people in these communities. It is from this background that this paper seeks to assess and analyze present and future climate change impacts on agriculture in Central Zambia and further seeks to appraise the effectiveness of CEBA mechanisms being adopted and utilized in this region. Using community assessment and rural appraisal tools this research paper found that indeed some CEBA practices are innovative and effective and are enhancing the adaptability and resilience of the local people in agriculture in this region. The paper recommends that the advancement, funding, and integration of innovative and effective CEBA practices with scientific knowledge and the ultimate replication and incorporation of these practices into developmental and climate change policies can be one of the most beneficial and effective ways for a sustainable, adaptive, and resilient agriculture sector in the face of a changing and unpredictable climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We live in the times of climate change when global temperatures are constantly rising. The impacts of climate change will also be felt in agriculture in Slovakia: increased productivity and yields in colder areas, reduced production in warmer areas due to temperature stress, risk of erosion as a result of more extreme weather conditions (stronger winds, more intense precipitation), the occurrence of new pests etc. Hence, we should be prepared for adaptation measures that would help mitigate it. The aim of this paper is to present the impacts of climate change on agriculture and land, and to offer adaptation measures, and show the prognosis of the climate indicator Ts >10 °C from now until 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is known as a “creeping disaster” because drought impacts are usually noticed months or years after a drought begins. In the Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs), there is almost no ability to tell when a drought will begin or end, especially for droughts other than meteorological droughts. Monitoring, forecasting and managing drought in the PICTs is complex due to the variety of different ways droughts occur, and the diverse direct and indirect causes and consequences of drought, across the PICT region. For example, the impacts of drought across the PICTs vary significantly depending on (i) the type of drought (e.g. meteorological drought or agricultural drought); (ii) the location (e.g. high islands versus atolls); (iii) socioeconomic conditions in the location affected by drought; and (iv) cultural attitudes towards the causes of drought (e.g. a punishment from God versus a natural process that is potentially predictable and something that can be managed). This paper summarises what is known and unknown about drought impacts in the PICTs and provides recommendations to guide future research and investment towards minimising the negative impacts of droughts when they inevitably occur in the PICTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • This paper estimates the ability of farmers in India to adapt to high temperatures. • The analysis uses short-term weather fluctuations and spatial variation in long-run climate. • Results suggest that adaptation is modestly effective for moderate levels of heat. • Results suggest that adaptation to extreme heat is much more difficult. Abstract Projections suggest that the damages from climate change will be substantial for developing countries. Understanding the ability of households in these countries to adapt to climate change is critical in order to determine the magnitude of the potential damages. In this paper, I investigate the ability of farmers in India to adapt to higher temperatures. I use a methodology that exploits short-term weather fluctuations as well as spatial variation in long-run climate. Specifically, I estimate how damaging high temperatures are for districts that experience high temperatures more or less frequently. I find that the losses from high temperatures are lower in heat-prone districts, a result that is consistent with adaptation. However, while adaptation appears to be modestly effective for moderate levels of heat, my results suggest that adaptation to extreme heat is much more difficult. Extremely high temperatures do grave damage to crops, even in places that experience these temperature extremes regularly. The persistence of negative impacts of high temperatures, even in areas that experience high temperatures frequently, underscores the need for development policies that emphasize risk mitigation and explicitly account for climate-change-related risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Food security is a key issue in the region, and is related to vulnerability in the natural and human system. This short research paper, which reports on a systematic search of the academic literature and is part of a larger research project on climate change adaptation in Caribbean coastal communities, investigates two central questions: (1) what challenges to food security are Caribbean SIDS facing due to climate change? and (2) what strategies, if any, are being used to adapt to these challenges? We review peer-reviewed articles published after the release of Working Group II's contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2014, which included a chapter on vulnerability and impacts in small islands (Chapter 29). We find that post AR5 articles confirm that climate change will have a significant effect on agriculture and fisheries in the Caribbean, mainly through changing patterns of weather, air and sea surface temperatures, and water availability. These studies highlight the importance of considering the social dimensions of food security in the region when identifying and implementing adaptation strategies, particularly in the context of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. These social dimensions include the Caribbean's historical and social context as well as its demographics, which feature varying population densities and poverty rates. They serve to increase vulnerability but are imperative considerations for understanding and minimizing the threat climate change poses to food security in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate‐driven environmental changes bring new risks but also opportunities to populations living along the world's major rivers. Based on ethnoecological fieldwork, in this paper we examine how people living in the cuvette centrale of the Congo basin have adopted flood‐recession agriculture on islands in the Congo River, taking advantage of a secular shift since the 1980s in the hydrological regime of the Congo River. Analyses of the hydrological data reveal that this shift decreased flood risk and significantly extended the growing season on the islands, long enough to enable cultivation of fast‐maturing varieties of manioc and other crops. Flood‐recession farming on islands in the river is today not only an important source of food, but also a source of income for women, who are primarily responsible for seasonal cultivation of fields during the low‐water season. Hydrological changes alone are insufficient to explain the adoption of the new agricultural practice; adoption also arose as a result of dynamic interactions among river fishing, trading, and broader socio‐economic forces. Climate‐change models project an increased frequency of extreme floods. Our results suggest that this change may limit island cultivation in the future. More generally, our findings point to the importance of looking beyond single‐factor, solely environmental explanations in studies of climate‐change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vulnerability of the Philippines to climate change and variability has been highlighted by its exposure to severe weather-related conditions. Farmers are particularly vulnerable to such adverse effects given their limited adaptive capacity. In this regard, this study examines the local adaptation experiences and practices of farmers in a second-class farming municipality. It is then based on the assumption that a lay understanding of how farmers perceive and adapt to climate change can be used to provide implications for enhancing their adaptive capacity. Using a combination of qualitative data from key informant interviews and focus group discussion and secondary data from government agencies, this paper reveals that farmers perceive serious health and livelihood risks despite having limited knowledge of how climate change occurs. They recognize that changes in climate conditions have caused considerable effects to temperature and rainfall which, in turn, have posed serious challenge to water supply. Their farming activities are also at risk from interrelated impacts such as damage to crops, pest infestation, and decrease in rice yield. Hence, they consistently employ common adaptation measures as direct responses to climate variability such as the planting of new crop varieties, use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, use of technology in farming, and diversification of household income. However, the lack of financial resources hinders them from utilizing new adaptation techniques and technologies, which they perceive to be more appropriate and beneficial. These results suggest a more conscious effort of transforming coping strategies to short-term climate variability into adaptation measures to long-term climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interaction between mitigation and adaptation is a key question for the design of climate policies. In this paper, we study how land use adaptation to climate change impacts land use competition in the agriculture, forest and other land use (AFOLU) sector and how a mitigation policy in agriculture might affect this competition. We use for this purpose two sector-specific bio-economic models of agriculture and forest combined with an econometric land use shares model to simulate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (A2 and B1, 2100 horizon), and a greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture policy consisting of a tax of between 0 and 200 €/tCO 2 equivalent. Our results show that both climate change scenarios lead to an increase in the area devoted to agriculture at the expense of forest which could have a negative impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change. The mitigation policy would curtail agricultural expansion, and thus could counteract the effects of land use adaptation to climate change. In other words, accounting for land use competition results in a reduction of the abatement costs of the mitigation policy in the agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is estimated to substantially reduce crop yields in Sub-Saharan West Africa by 2050. Yet, a limited number of studies also suggest that several adaptation measures may mitigate the effects of climate change induced yield loss. In this paper, we used AquaCrop, a process-based model developed by the FAO (The Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy), to quantify the risk of climate change on several key cereal crops in the Niger Basin. The crops analyzed include maize, millet, and sorghum under rain fed cultivation systems in various agro-ecological zones within the Niger Basin. We also investigated several adaptation strategies, including changes in the sowing dates, soil nutrient status, and cultivar. Future climate change is estimated using nine ensemble bias-corrected climate model projection results under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP--Representative Concentration Pathway) emissions scenario at mid future time period, 2021/25-2050. The results show that on average, temperature had a larger effect on crop yields so that the increase in precipitation could still be a net loss of crop yield. Our simulated results showed that climate change effects on maize and sorghum yield would be mostly positive (2% to 6% increase) in the Southern Guinea savanna zone while at the Northern Guinea savanna zone it is mostly negative (2% to 20% decrease). The results show that at the Sahelian zone the projected changes in temperature and precipitation have little to no impact on millet yield for the future time period, 2021/25-2050. In all agro-ecological zones, increasing soil fertility from poor fertility to moderate, near optimal and optimal level significantly reversed the negative yield change respectively by over 20%, 70% and 180% for moderate fertility, near optimal fertility, and optimal fertility. Thus, management or adaptation factors, such as soil fertility, had a much larger effect on crop yield than the climatic change factors. These results provide actionable guidance on effective climate change adaptation strategies for rain fed agriculture in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cattle ranchers and dairy farmers operating throughout many tropical regions are experiencing major challenges associated with climate change such as higher incidence of heat stress and drought. These effects can result in reduced productivity of rangeland, shortage of nutritional feed, increased heat stress on animals, and high energy costs for cooling. High temperatures and resultant heat stress reduce animal productivity and increase the proliferation and survival of parasites and disease pathogens. Warming reduces the ability of dairy cattle to produce milk and gain weight and can also lower conception rates. This paper reviews research from the Caribbean on heat tolerant traits in bovine and presents evidence that introducing a “slick hair” gene into Holstein cows by crossbreeding with Senepols may increase thermo-tolerance and productivity. As in other parts of the tropics, principal cattle breeds in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands have been largely introduced from temperate regions. Research indicates these animals may be poorly adapted to rising temperatures, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to chronic heat stress and reduced productivity. Adaptive practices have been developed in breeding and pasture management programs including selection for more heat-resistant genotypes, silvopasturing and crop diversification in forage production, and optimizing facilities and practices to reduce heat stress. Given the nature of climate vulnerability, an integrated approach to adaptation will likely have the greatest success in reducing future risk for producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and adaptation is emerging as a key policy response. Place based programs that build adaptive capacity are needed. This paper explores the effectiveness of formal institutions in climate change adaptation for agriculture from the perspectives of farmers and institutional communities of practice within two drought-prone areas in Bangladesh. Our findings show that formal institutions via their communities of practice play an important role in building place based capacity for mitigation and adaptation strategies in agriculture. Over-emphasis on technology, lack of acknowledgement of cultural factors and a failure of institutional communities of practice to mediate and create linkages with informal institutional communities of practice remain barriers. We argue that in order for formal institutions to play an ongoing and crucial role in building adaptive agriculture in Bangladesh, they must incorporate cultural mechanisms and build partnerships with more community based informal institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores farmers' perceptions of climate change vulnerability as well as the effects of socioeconomic factors and adaptation barriers on climate change adaptation practices in the Malaysian agricultural sector. To accomplish these aims, a multiple regression analysis was performed, and the severity index (SI) was estimated to measure perceived vulnerability context. The results revealed that age, education level, farm income, farm experience, limited access to agricultural extension, lack of credit facilities, limited access to agricultural markets, and farm size are factors which have significant impacts on adaptation practices. The value of the SI suggests that farmers have favourable attitudes towards climate change adaptation and they are agreeable to addressing climate change issues through appropriate adaptation strategies. However, the study found several adaptation barriers that hinder farmers from implementing climate change adaptation policies. It is realized that at present, no specific policy in Malaysia seeks to counter the impacts of climate change on individual sectors and their productivity. Therefore, the findings of this study will assist policymakers to make an appropriate policy framework considering most suitable adaptation strategies to overcome all the barriers associated with adaptation practices to tackle the adverse effects of climate change in Malaysian agriculture sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a seven-step approach to identify and support local climate change (CC) responses in agriculture. The following seven steps comprise this approach: 1. Analyse past trends on the climatic factors and model the future trends. 2. Simulate the possible impacts of CC on the selected system(s) or product(s). 3. Present and discuss the predicted impacts with the local stakeholders. 4. Identify and rank CC responses together with the local stakeholders. 5. Elaborate plans to develop and test the highest ranked response(s). 6. Evaluate the results of the tests and recommend implementation or changes. 7. Report the results to the involved authorities and suggest ways to implement the responses and/or advise new tests if the first ones were not able to sufficiently deal with the impacts. Six pilot studies in Vietnam were funded through two projects led by Wageningen University & Research. The first addressed several production systems in one southern province, and the second in three more northern districts, each with different problems. This paper reflects and communicates the seven-step approach in order to make local CC responses accessible to the larger rural development communities. Most of the identified solutions can spread autonomously, while others will require specific planned interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, climate change is one of the most challenging environmental issues as it poses potential threat to different sectors of economy at global level. Agriculture being an open activity is primarily dependent on climatic factors and change in climatic conditions affects the production, quality and quantity of crop production in an area. This paper attempts to study effects of only two parameters of climate i.e. temperature and rainfall on agricultural production in northwest region of India. Northwest region comprising of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu Kashmir states is the greatest food bowl of India contributing to its food security. The analysis of mean monthly rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures (1901-2006) shows no significant change in temperature and rainfall conditions from 1901 to 1960; but afterward the change is more pronounced. On the whole any significant change in climatic conditions will not only challenge the food production of the region but also challenge the country's food security situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Where power lies and how it is conceived in studies of governance and institutions is often not discussed. This is due to the ubiquitous nature of the topic. Power is shaped by a variety of institutional factors, including the architecture of governing structures, questions of scale and level, and access to key resources including knowledge and capital, among other factors. To date, there are relatively few tools available that allow policy makers, researchers, and development practitioners to render these power dynamics explicit and thus take steps to mitigate the potentially deleterious effects of power orientations. This paper proposes a methodology, multi-level stakeholder influence mapping (MSIM), for elucidating power dynamics between actors in complex system regimes. MSIM departs from existing power mapping techniques in that it relies on individual interviews conducted across multiple actor levels and utilizes a participatory mapping process for shared system boundary critique. MSIM was piloted in Nepal's agricultural climate change adaptation regime with actors from the central, regional, and local operational levels. The results suggest that without proper consideration of the role of power in agricultural adaptation regimes, the resulting interventions will likely be insufficient in catalyzing adaptation pathways and moderating the negative impacts of climate change. Furthermore, power analyses produced from the perspective of a single actor level or respondent type can risk sub optimization of adaptation outcomes and can misdirect the lobbying efforts of those agencies utilizing mapping outputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the Middle Ages the Dutch have reclaimed many lakes and parts of the sea, creating polders. Drainage is required to use the land: for the inhabitants, for agriculture and for nature. Traditionally drainage was by gravity: through open (and later pipe) drains excess rainfall was transferred into open collector drains, from where the water was pumped out to a river, lake or the sea. Since the 1950s, land use has been changing towards a more diverse and intensive agriculture, more attention for nature, recreation and continuing urbanization. On top of this, the climate is changing: significant increases in precipitation, both average and extreme. Until recently, the solution to more excess water was to increase pump capacity. Yet the combined problems of climate change, sea level rise, subsidence and urbanization require more structural changes in water management. Drainage systems have to be modified to enable the shift from a strategy of rapid removal of all excess water to one that continuously controls water levels individually in each agricultural plot. A new approach of ‘retention, storage and controlled removal’ is being used to develop climate adaptation scenarios for the three hydro-ecological zones in the Netherlands, i.e.: (1) the man-made polder areas with marine clay soils along the North Sea coast and the former Zuider Sea; (2) the low-lying peat lands in the west and north; and (3) the sandy and loamy soils areas in the centre, south and east. New approaches for tailor-made drainage solutions following this strategy are being tested in various pilot areas in the three zones. Although the research is still ongoing, this paper presents the lessons learned to date related to the challenges, risks and limitations associated with the introduction of these new drainage strategies for coping with climate change in the Netherlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of research on possible climate change in Bosnia and Herzegovina according to the climate scenario RCP8.5 and its potential impact on fruit production. Climate change analyses are based on expected fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation and climate indices. The results indicate pronounced climate change, which refers to an increase in annual temperature to 5 °C, and a decrease in annual precipitation of up to 30% and in the summer season (June, July, and August) and up to 40% by the end of the XXI century. In addition, an increase in the number of summer days and a decrease in the number of days with the appearance of snow can be expected. Reducing the number of days with snow and snow cover can cause a decrease in underground aquifers with water during the winter and spring seasons. These changes can have a serious impact on the problem of drought and water deficit, which can have direct consequences for the agricultural sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially for fruit production. These findings show that fundamental changes in agriculture and an approach to land treatment and water resources management, as well as fruit production planning in changed climatic conditions, are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Agro-meteorological metrics are indicators of weather determined environmental conditions on which agricultural management decisions are made. Metrics derived from an estimated future climate provide an opportunity to characterise the impacts of climate change on a wide range of agricultural systems, land use practices and ecosystem services. Such indications are vital for determining how changes in the biophysical environment can lead to land management and policy adaptations to achieve multiple objectives of financial viability, food security, biodiversity conservation and environmental sustainability. They provide valuable links between probable management adaptation responses and capacity for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are large uncertainties associated with projected future climates, including the climate models’ spatial scale of representation and those at which agro-meteorological metrics are applied. This paper describes the estimation of agro-meteorological metrics derived from observed weather and downscaled Regional Climate Model projection data for 12 sites in Scotland. Results show that projected changes to seasonal rainfall distribution, growing season length, soil moisture deficits and accessibility will be substantially different from the present climate. Fundamentally, the metrics indicate a substantial shift in land management requirements and potential need for substantial changes in agricultural systems and land use that will have implications across a wide range of research disciplines. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Understanding how and why farmers have responded to past climatic change is a necessary step to informing how to support current and future adaptation. This paper explores commercial farmers' perceptions of and responses to shifting climates in the Little Brak River area along South Africa's south coast. It aims to evaluate changes in the climate experienced in the area by comparing quantitative statistical analyses of temperature, rainfall and wind data recorded from 1967 to 2009, with qualitative historical narratives and formulated perceptions of change for the same period. This was undertaken in order to test the robustness of the narratives and to understand how farmers' perceptions and experiences drive their climate-related decisions. The narratives revealed that the farmers perceived a gradual but dramatic shift in climate over almost four decades, including increasing temperatures, changing annual rainfall patterns and shifts in predominant wind direction, mirrored by the recorded weather data that show similar results to the narratives. It is evident that farmers' experience with shifting climates has played a large part in driving their adaptive decision-making, but financial capital of these commercial farmers has also been a major factor enabling certain responses. This research contributes to the growing local and regional evidence of variability and change to climate systems, and documents how people have already responded to change in order to help build locally relevant climate change adaptation approaches that could potentially benefit a wider range of farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is predicted to experience considerable negative impacts of climate change. The IPCC Fourth Assessment emphasizes that adaptation strategies are essential. Addressing adaptation in the context of small-scale, semi-subsistence agriculture raises special challenges. High data demands including site-specific bio-physical and economic data are an important constraint. This paper applies a new approach to impact assessment, the Tradeoff Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD), which simulates technology adoption and associated economic, environmental and social outcomes in a heterogeneous farm population for a regional impact assessment. The methodology uses the kinds of survey, experimental and modeled data that are typically available in countries where semi-subsistence systems are important, combined with future socio-economic scenarios based on new scenario pathway concepts being developed by the climate change and impact assessment modeling communities. Characteristics of current and future agricultural systems, including land use, output, output price, cost of production, and farm and household size are analyzed and compared for both current and projected future climate (2030), with and without adaptation, and for different socio-economic scenarios. The methodology is applied to two study areas in Kenya. These case studies show the potential of this approach to provide a flexible, generic framework that can use available and modeled data to evaluate climate impact and adaptation strategies under a range of socio-economic scenarios. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the idea that plasticity in farm management introduces resilience to change and allows farm businesses to perform when operating in highly variable environments. We also argue for the need to develop and apply more integrative assessments of farm performance that combine the use of modelling tools with deliberative processes involving farmers and researchers in a co-learning process, to more effectively identify and implement more productive and resilient farm businesses. In a plastic farming system, farm management is highly contingent on environmental conditions. In plastic farming systems farm managers constantly vary crops and inputs based on the availability of limited and variable resources (e.g. land, water, finances, labour, machinery, etc.), and signals from its operating environment (e.g. climate, markets), with the objective of maximising a number of, often competing, objectives (e.g. maximise profits, minimise risks, etc.). In contrast in more rigid farming systems farm management is more calendar driven and relatively fixed sequences of crops are regularly followed over time and across the farm. Here we describe the application of a whole farm simulation model to (i) compare, in silico, the sensitivity of two farming systems designs of contrasting levels of plasticity, operating in two contrasting environments, when exposed to a stressor in the form of climate change scenarios;(ii) investigate the presence of interactions and feedbacks at the field and farm levels capable of modifying the intensity and direction of the responses to climate signals; and (iii) discuss the need for the development and application of more integrative assessments in the analysis of impacts and adaptation options to climate change. In both environments, the more plastic farm management strategy had higher median profits and was less risky for the baseline and less intensive climate change scenarios (2030). However, for the more severe climate change scenarios (2070), the benefit of plastic strategies tended to disappear. These results suggest that, to a point, farming systems having higher levels of plasticity would enable farmers to more effectively respond to climate shifts, thus ensuring the economic viability of the farm business. Though, as the intensity of the stress increases (e.g. 2070 climate change scenario) more significant changes in the farming system might be required to adapt. We also found that in the case studies analysed here, most of the impacts from the climate change scenarios on farm profit and economic risk originated from important reductions in cropping intensity and changes in crop mix rather than from changes in the yields of individual crops. Changes in cropping intensity and crop mix were explained by the combination of reductions in the number of sowing opportunities around critical times in the cropping calendar, and to operational constraints at the whole farm level i.e. limited work capacity in an environment having fewer and more concentrated sowing opportunities. This indicates that indirect impacts from shifts in climate on farm operations can be more important than direct impacts from climate on the yield of individual crops. The results suggest that due to the complexity of farm businesses, impact assessments and opportunities for adaptation to climate change might also need to be pursued at higher integration levels than the crop or the field. We conclude that plasticity can be a desirable characteristic in farming systems operating in highly variable environments, and that integrated whole farm systems analyses of impacts and adaptation to climate change are required to identify important interactions between farm management decision rules, availability of resources, and farmer''s preference. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The sustainability of livestock farming systems (LFS) in relation to global concerns about climate change, population dynamics and the quality of the agro-ecosystem services that are provided to society and their trade-offs has become a fundamental issue for public and scientific debate. However, LFS differ widely in terms of the use of resources, degree of intensification, species and orientation of production, local/regional socio-economic and market context, cultural roles, etc. Therefore, we need to disaggregate livestock farming systems when analysing any aspect of sustainability. This paper discusses low-input pasture-based farming systems (meat sheep and beef cattle) located in mountainous and other less favoured areas of the European Mediterranean basin. We first describe their recent evolution in terms of the level of intensification and structural, economic, social and environmental factors at the farm level, paying special attention to critical points of sustainability. Despite the diversity encountered, there are some common factors that threaten their future, such as an excessive dependency on premiums, the lack of generational turnover due to a number of increasingly influential social factors and a continuous process of abandonment of large marginal areas and concentration in more favourable areas. Next, we depict some relevant synergies and trade-offs between a number of factors that we have previously described, taking into account the wider socio-economic environment in which farms operate. Pasture-based LFS can satisfy societal demands (for public goods such as landscape and biodiversity or ethical concerns about food production) and are less vulnerable to market changes. However, they are not paid for the environmental services they deliver, they suffer displacement by other economic activities, and they are very sensitive to climate change scenarios. We also point out a number of options for designing and implementing more sustainable pasture-based LFS under very uncertain circumstances; the concepts of resilience, adaptive capacity and self-sufficiency are discussed within this context. Finally, we summarise some areas for future research: –valuation and integration of positive externalities of pasture-based LFS in an analytical sustainability frameworks and management tools, –assessment of the diversity of systems, the impact they generate and the public goods they deliver, –analysis of complex relationships between intensification of production, dependence on off-farm/on-farm inputs, productivity and working conditions, –consideration of the social factors that determine continuity and working conditions, –and the necessity of performing dynamic studies that allow the understanding and anticipation of change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper examines the success of small-scale farming livelihoods in adapting to climate variability and change. We represent adaptation actions as choices within a response space that includes coping but also longer-term adaptation actions, and define success as those actions which promote system resilience, promote legitimate institutional change, and hence generate and sustain collective action. We explore data on social responses from four regions across South Africa and Mozambique facing a variety of climate risks. The analysis suggests that some collective adaptation actions enhance livelihood resilience to climate change and variability but others have negative spillover effects to other scales. Any assessment of successful adaptation is, however, constrained by the scale of analysis in terms of the temporal and spatial boundaries on the system being investigated. In addition, the diversity of mechanisms by which rural communities in southern Africa adapt to risks suggests that external interventions to assist adaptation will need to be sensitive to the location-specific nature of adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines climate adaptation strategies of farmers in the Limpopo Basin of South Africa. Survey results show that while many farmers noticed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation, most could not take remedial action. Lack of access to credit and water were cited as the main factors inhibiting adaptation. Common adaptation responses reported included diversifying crops, changing varieties and planting dates, using irrigation, and supplementing livestock feed. A multinomial logit analysis of climate adaptation responses suggests that access to water, credit, extension services and off-farm income and employment opportunities, tenure security, farmers' asset base and farming experience are key to enhancing farmers' adaptive capacity. This implies that appropriate government interventions to improve farmers' access to and the status of these factors are needed for reducing vulnerability of farmers to climate adversities in such arid areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines whether an integrated farm that owns both crops and livestock is more resilient under global warming than a specialized farm in crops. Using around 9000 farm surveys across Africa, we explore how farmers choose one of the farm types and how the net revenue of each type varies across the range of climate in Africa. The results indicate that an integrated farm increases in number while a specialized farm decreases across Africa under climate predictions for 2060. The relative profitability of each system against each other also changes. An integrated farm becomes relatively more profitable over specialized farms half a century from now. The impacts of climate change on integrated farms range from 9% loss to 27% gain depending on climate scenarios. Behavioral models can capture portfolio diversification benefits that agro-economic models cannot measure. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is more susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment–genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions; and risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate change analysis, studies, and impact at the European level. The results were discussed with respect to their spatial distribution in Europe and to identify possible common long- and short-term strategies for adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The ability of farmers to adapt to changing environments is an important determinant of welfare. • Neighbors may enhance adaptive capacity through spatial spillover adaptation effects. • Spatial interactions amplify the marginal effects of adaptive capacity elements by 50 percent. • Targeting the adaptation of few but central households is enough to generate spatial spillovers. The ability of farmers to adapt to changing rural environments in developing countries is an important determinant of welfare. But the adaptive capacity of farmers may be constrained because economic resources, information, and institutions are often weak or missing. Farmers living close to one another face similar environmental and economic conditions, but may have different levels of adaptive capacity. These spatially connected farmers (or neighbors) can potentially ease economic constraints and facilitate adaptation by acting as conduits of information and resources. This paper estimates spatial effects on adaptation: how neighbors' adaptations influence farmers' adaptation decisions. Our data contains information from more than two thousand households located across 12 countries in Africa and Asia. We find that neighbors significantly influence adaptation decisions, and that spatial interactions amplify the marginal effects of adaptive capacity elements by 50 percent. We also propose a targeting approach that decomposes the total spatial effect into effects coming from different subsets of households that are selected according to their spatial centrality. We find that targeting the two households with highest eigenvector centrality in each village is enough to generate a statistically significant spatial multiplier effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change effects on agricultural yields will be uneven over the world. A few countries, mostly in high latitudes, may experience gains, while most will see average yield decrease. This paper aims to quantify the role of market-mediated adjustments in attenuating the effects of climate change by allowing the expression of the new climate-induced pattern of comparative advantages within and between countries. To do this, we develop a quantitative general equilibrium trade model where the representation of land use choice is inspired from modern Ricardian trade models. We use spatially explicit information from the agronomic literature about potential yields before and after climate change for calibration and counterfactual simulations. The results show that the climate-induced yield changes generate large price movements that incentivize adjustments in production and trade. Both production and trade adjustments contribute to reducing welfare losses globally, with production adjustments making the larger contribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This literature review highlights the effects of extreme heat exposure on perennial agriculture. • California crop production will be impacted by climate change and heat extremes. • Both cool- and warm-season heat extremes will influence crop development, yield, and quality. • Current extreme heat adaptation practices may not be sustainable under future climatic conditions or regulatory constraints. • Further research in breeding, genetics, and irrigation will be necessary to maintain perennial agricultural production. Extreme heat events will challenge agricultural production and raise the risk of food insecurity. California is the largest agricultural producer in the United States, and climate change and extreme heat may significantly affect the state's food production. This paper provides a summary of the current literature on crop responses to extreme heat, with a focus on perennial agriculture in California. We highlight contemporary trends and future projections in heat extremes, and the range of plant responses to extreme heat exposure, noting the variability in plant tolerance and response across season, crop, and cultivar. We also review practices employed to mitigate heat damage and the capacity for those practices to serve as adaptation options in a warmer and drier future. Finally, we discuss current and future research directions aimed at increasing the adaptive capacity of perennial agriculture to the increased heat exposure anticipated with climate change. Collectively, the literature reviewed makes clear the need to understand crop responses and tolerances to heat within the context of climate change and climate extremes in order to sustain crop production, preserve agricultural communities, and bolster food security at local, national, and global scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Livestock systems in the United Kingdom will be affected by climate change. • A range of on-farm adaptation options are available at low-cost. • Adapting to observed and short-term impacts may overcome barriers. • Long-term changes should be planned for. Agriculture is a vital economic sector, providing food, fibre, and energy to a growing human population. Livestock are an important part of this sector, however the evidence and understanding of how a changing climate may affect livestock production systems, or how they may adapt to the changes, is a neglected area compared to the research into crop production. In this paper, we focus on livestock in the United Kingdom (UK), as an example of a temperate region likely to experience at least moderate changes in climate that will require changes to the way agricultural systems operate. We summarise the projected climate changes in this region, identify the main impacts likely to affect livestock agriculture, and discuss potential adaptation options at the farm level. We also categorise the adaptation options by the types of costs they incur, emphasising that many of these options involve management changes rather than investment and therefore no financial cost. Finally, we discuss the need for longer term planning to prepare for changes that have not yet been observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]