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Atmospheric analysis data from the European Center for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been acquired and are used to characterize the meteorological situation in Maroua, Cameroon (10.614° N, 14.361° E) at 12:00 UTC. These are then used to simulate downward global solar radiation (DGSR) with the moderate-resolution transmittance (MODTRAN) radiative transfer code (RTC). In comparison with meteorological data measured during the year 2014 in Maroua, ECMWF atmospheric quantities at ground level, in general, showed good correlation coefficients and slight differences. It is shown that ECMWF atmospheric profiles can thus be used to complete the scarce atmospheric data and to study the atmosphere state and dynamics, such as the African monsoon phenomenon detected in this region, which regulates the rainy season. In addition, they are more suitable to simulate clear-sky DGSR compared to MODTRAN standard atmospheric profiles. The causes and effects of the substantial bias and weak correlation coefficient observed with ECMWF wind data and the constant underestimation of simulated DGSR in comparison with ground-based measurements are investigated. The paper emphasizes the need for a better characterization of the Maroua atmosphere state and dynamics as well as the simulation of more accurate and reliable DGSR under any atmospheric conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is devoted to the first results from the GHYRAF (Gravity and Hydrology in Africa) experiment conducted since 2008 in West Africa and is aimed at investigating the changes in water storage in different regions sampling a strong rainfall gradient from the Sahara to the monsoon zone. The analysis of GPS vertical displacement in Niamey (Niger) and Djougou (Benin) shows that there is a clear annual signature of the hydrological load in agreement with global hydrology models like GLDAS. The comparison of GRACE solutions in West Africa, and more specifically in the Niger and Lake Chad basins, reveals a good agreement for the large scale annual water storage changes between global hydrology models and space gravity observations. Ground gravity observations done with an FG5 absolute gravimeter also show signals which can be well related to measured changes in soil and ground water. We present the first results for two sites in the Sahelian band (Wankama and Diffa in Niger) and one (Djougou in Benin) in the Sudanian monsoon region related to the recharge-discharge processes due to the monsoonal event in summer 2008 and the following dry season. It is confirmed that ground gravimetry is a useful tool to constrain local water storage changes when associated to hydrological and subsurface geophysical in situ measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A series of recent papers showed that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the south equatorial tropical Atlantic modulate the interannual variability of the African and Indian monsoon rainfall. Physically this teleconnection can be explained by a simple Gill-Matsuno mechanism. In this work, the output from five different models chosen within the CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 3) ensemble of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are analyzed to investigate how state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the impact of the South Tropical Atlantic (STA) SSTs on the Indian and African region. Using a correlation-regression technique, it is found that four out of the five models display a teleconnection between STA and Indian region which is generally weaker than in the observations but in agreement in the rainfall field pattern. This teleconnection is also noticeable in the ensemble mean of the five models. Over Africa, however, the significant changes in rainfall displayed in the observation are properly caught by only one of the CGCMs. Additionally, none of the models reproduces the symmetric upper-level wind response around the Equator seen over the Indian Ocean in the observations and all have significant biases also in the surface pressure field response to the tropical Atlantic SSTs. Nonetheless the STA response, particularly over the southern hemisphere, is indicative of the Gill-Matsuno-type mechanism identified in previous studies using idealized experiments with atmospheric GCMs and observational data. With a suite of atmospheric-only GCM integrations it is shown that the differences in amplitude and pattern are not only due to the strong biases and reduced variabilities of the CGCMs over the tropical Atlantic but they are also caused by the different physical parameterizations used in models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Abstract: The link between the African Monsoon systems and aerosol loading in Africa is studied using multi-year satellite observations of UV-absorbing aerosols and rain gauge measurements. The main aerosol types occurring over Africa are desert dust and biomass burning aerosols, which are UV-absorbing. The abundance of these aerosols over Africa is characterised in this paper using residues and Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) data from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) on board ERS-2 and SCanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric ChartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) on board Envisat. Time series of regionally averaged residues from 1995 to 2008 show the seasonal variations of aerosols in Africa. Zonally averaged daily residues over Africa are related to monthly mean precipitation data and show monsoon-controlled atmospheric aerosol loadings. A distinction is made between the West African Monsoon (WAM) and the East African Monsoon (EAM), which have different dynamics, mainly due to the asymmetric distribution of land masses around the equator in the west. The seasonal variation of the aerosol distribution is clearly linked to the seasonal cycle of the monsoonal wet and dry periods in both studied areas. The residue distribution over Africa shows two distinct modes, one associated with dry periods and one with wet periods. During dry periods the residue varies freely, due to aerosol emissions from deserts and biomass burning events. During wet periods the residue depends linearly on the amount of precipitation, due to scavenging of aerosols and the prevention of aerosol emissions from the wet surface. This is most clear over east Africa, where the sources and sinks of atmospheric aerosols are controlled directly by the local climate, i.e. monsoonal precipitation. Here, the wet mode has a mean residue of −1.4 and the dry mode has a mean residue of −0.3. During the wet modes a reduction of one residue unit for every 160 mm monthly averaged precipitation was found. Shielding effects due to cloud cover may also play a role in the reduction of the residue during wet periods. A possible influence of aerosols on the monsoon, via aerosol direct and indirect effects, is plausible, but cannot directly be deduced from these data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The role of ocean feedback on monsoon variations at 6 and 9.5kyr Before Present (BP) compared to present-day is investigated by using sets of simulations computed with the IPSL–CM4 ocean–atmosphere coupled model and simulations with the atmospheric model only with the SST prescribed to the present-day simulation for the coupled model. This work is complementary to the study by Marzin and Braconnot (2009) who have analyzed in detail the response of Indian and African monsoons to changes in insolation at 6 and 9.5kyr BP using the IPSL–CM4 coupled model. The monsoon rainfall was intensified at 6 and 9.5kyr BP compared to 0kyr BP as a result of the intensified seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, the impact of the ocean feedback is analysed for the Indian, East-Asian and African monsoons. The response of the ocean to the 6 and 9.5kyr BP insolation forcing shares similarities between the two periods, but we highlight local differences and a delay in the response of the surface ocean between 6 and 9.5kyr BP. The ocean feedback is shown to be positive for the early stage of the African monsoon. A dipole of SST in the tropical Atlantic favouring the earlier build-up of the monsoon in the 6 and 9.5kyr BP coupled simulations. However, it is strongly negative for the Indian and East Asian monsoons, and of stronger amplitude at 9.5 than at 6kyr BP over India. In these Asian regions, the convection is more active over the ocean than over the continent during the late monsoon season due to the ocean feedback. The results are consistent with previous studies about 6kyr BP climate. In addition, it is shown that the ocean feedback is not sufficient to explain the relative amplifications of the different monsoon systems within the three periods of the Holocene, but that the mechanisms such as the effect of the precession on the seasonal cycle of monsoons as discussed in Marzin and Braconnot (2009) are more plausible. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

During the mid‐Holocene (6 kyr BP), West Africa experienced a much stronger and geographically extensive monsoon than in the present day. Changes in orbital forcing, vegetation and dust emissions from the Sahara have been identified as key factors driving this intensification. Here, we analyse how the timing, origin and convergence of moisture fluxes contributing to the monsoonal precipitation change under a range of scenarios: orbital forcing only; orbital and vegetation forcings (Green Sahara); orbital, vegetation and dust forcings (Green Sahara‐reduced dust). We further compare our results to a range of reconstructions of mid‐Holocene precipitation from palaeoclimate archives. In our simulations, the greening of the Sahara leads to a cyclonic water vapour flux anomaly over North Africa with an anomalous westerly flow bringing large amounts of moisture into the Sahel from the Atlantic Ocean. Changes in atmospheric dust under a vegetated Sahara shift the anomalous moisture advection pattern northwards, increasing both moisture convergence and precipitation recycling over the northern Sahel and Sahara and the associated precipitation during the boreal summer. During this season, under both the Green Sahara and Green Sahara‐reduced dust scenarios, local recycling in the Saharan domain exceeds that of the Sahel. This points to local recycling as an important factor modulating vegetation‐precipitation feedbacks and the impact of Saharan dust emissions. Our results also show that temperature and evapotranspiration over the Sahara in the mid‐Holocene are close to Sahelian pre‐industrial values. This suggests that pollen‐based paleoclimate reconstructions of precipitation during the Green Sahara period are likely not biased by possible large evapotranspiration changes in the region. The mid‐Holocene (ca. 6,000 years before present) was characterized by a very intense and geographically extensive West African monsoon (WAM) and extensive vegetation cover across regions which are now desert. Changes in orbital forcing, vegetation and dust emissions from the Sahara have been identified as key factors driving this intensification. Here, we analyse the WAM's water budget and argue that the mid‐Holocene can provide important insights into possible future changes in the WAM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population of the Sahel region of West Africa has approximately doubled in the past 50 years, and could potentially double again by the middle of this century. This has led to the northward expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural savanna, leading to widespread land use -land cover change (LULCC). Because there is strong evidence of significant surface-atmosphere coupling in this region, one of the main goals of the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation project phase II is to provide basic understanding of LULCC on the regional climate, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the seasonal variability of the West African Monsoon to LULCC. The prescribed LULCC is based on the changes from 1950 through 1990, representing a maximum feasible degradation scenario in the past half century. It is applied to 5 state of the art global climate models (GCMs) over a 6-year simulation period. Multiple GCMs are used because the magnitude of the impact of LULCC depends on model-dependent coupling strength between the surface and the overlying atmosphere, the magnitude of the surface biophysical changes, and how the key processes linking the surface with the atmosphere are parameterized within a particular model framework. Land cover maps and surface parameters may vary widely among models; therefore a special effort was made to impose consistent biogeophysical responses of surface parameters to LULCC using a simple experimental setup. The prescribed LULCC corresponds to degraded vegetation conditions, which mainly cause increases in the Bowen ratio and decreases in the surface net radiation, and result in a significant reduction in surface evaporation (upwards of 1 mm day over a large part of the Sahel). This, in turn, mainly leads to less moisture convergence and precipitation over the LULCC zone. The overall impact is a rainfall reduction with every model, which ranges across models from 4 to 25 % averaged over the Sahel, and a southward shift of the rainfall peak in three of the five models which evokes a precipitation dipole pattern which is consistent with the observed pattern for dry climate anomalies over this region. The African Easterly Jet shifts equator-ward, although the strength of this change varies considerably among the models. In most of the models, the main factor causing diabatic cooling of the upper troposphere and enhanced subsidence over the region of LULCC is the reduction of convective heating rates linked to reduced latent heat flux and moisture flux convergence. In broad agreement with previous studies, the impact of degradation on the regional climate is found to vary among the different models, however, the signal is stronger and more consistent between the models here than in previous inter-comparison projects. This is likely related to our emphasis on prioritizing a consistent impact of LULCC on the surface biophysical properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric analysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been acquired and are used to characterize the meteorological situation in Maroua, Cameroon ( 10.614 ∘ N, 14.361 ∘ E) at 12:00 UTC. These are then used to simulate downward global solar radiation (DGSR) with the moderate-resolution transmittance (MODTRAN) radiative transfer code (RTC). In comparison with meteorological data measured during the year 2014 in Maroua, ECMWF atmospheric quantities at ground level, in general, showed good correlation coefficients and slight differences. It is shown that ECMWF atmospheric profiles can thus be used to complete the scarce atmospheric data and to study the atmosphere state and dynamics, such as the African monsoon phenomenon detected in this region, which regulates the rainy season. In addition, they are more suitable to simulate clear-sky DGSR compared to MODTRAN standard atmospheric profiles. The causes and effects of the substantial bias and weak correlation coefficient observed with ECMWF wind data and the constant underestimation of simulated DGSR in comparison with ground-based measurements are investigated. The paper emphasizes the need for a better characterization of the Maroua atmosphere state and dynamics as well as the simulation of more accurate and reliable DGSR under any atmospheric conditions.

From the deglacial period to the mid-Holocene, North Africa was characterized by much wetter conditions than today. The broad timing of this period, termed the African Humid Period, is well known. However, the rapidity of the onset and termination of the African Humid Period are contested, with strong evidence for both abrupt and gradual change. We use optically stimulated luminescence dating of dunes, shorelines, and fluviolacustrine deposits to reconstruct the fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad, which was the largest pluvial lake in Africa. Humid conditions first occur at ∼15 ka, and by 11.5 ka, Lake Mega-Chad had reached a highstand, which persisted until 5.0 ka. Lake levels fell rapidly at ∼5 ka, indicating abrupt aridification across the entire Lake Mega-Chad Basin. This record provides strong terrestrial evidence that the African Humid Period ended abruptly, supporting the hypothesis that the African monsoon responds to insolation forcing in a markedly nonlinear manner. In addition, Lake Mega-Chad exerts strong control on global biogeochemical cycles because the northern (Bodélé) basin is currently the world's greatest single dust source and possibly an important source of limiting nutrients for both the Amazon Basin and equatorial Atlantic. However, we demonstrate that the final desiccation of the Bodélé Basin occurred around 1 ka. Consequently, the present-day mode and scale of dust production from the Bodélé Basin cannot have occurred before 1 ka, suggesting that its role in fertilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems is either overstated or geologically recent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation from the West African Monsoon (WAM) provides food security and supports the economy in the region. As a consequence of the intrinsic complexities of the WAM's evolution, accurate simulations of the WAM and its precipitation regime, through the application of regional climate models, are challenging. We used the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Land Model (CLM) to explore impacts of radiation physics on the precipitation and dynamics of the WAM. Our results indicate that the radiation physics schemes not only produce biases in radiation fluxes impacting radiative forcing, but more importantly, result in large bias in precipitation of the WAM. Furthermore, the different radiation schemes led to variations in the meridional gradient of surface temperature between the north that is the Sahara desert and the south Guinean coastline. Climate diagnostics indicated that the changes in the meridional gradient of surface temperature affect the position and strength of the African Easterly Jet as well as the low-level monsoonal inflow from the Gulf of Guinea. The net result was that each radiation scheme produced differences in the WAM precipitation regime both spatially and in intensity. Such considerable variances in the WAM precipitation regime and dynamics, resulting from radiation representations, likely have strong feedbacks within the climate system and so have inferences when it comes to aspects of predicted climate change both for the region and globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time series of regional 2° x 2° Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) solutions of surface water mass change have been computed over Africa from 2003 to 2012 with a 10-day resolution by using a new regional approach. These regional maps are used to describe and quantify water mass change. The contribution of African hydrology to actual sea level rise is negative and small in magnitude (i.e., -0.1 mm/y of equivalent sea level (ESL)) mainly explained by the water retained in the Zambezi River basin. Analysis of the regional water mass maps is used to distinguish different zones of important water mass variations, with the exception of the dominant seasonal cycle of the African monsoon in the Sahel and Central Africa. The analysis of the regional solutions reveals the accumulation in the Okavango swamp and South Niger. It confirms the continuous depletion of water in the North Sahara aquifer at the rate of -2.3 km³/y, with a decrease in early 2008. Synergistic use of altimetry-based lake water volume with total water storage (TWS) from GRACE permits a continuous monitoring of sub-surface water storage for large lake drainage areas. These different applications demonstrate the potential of the GRACE mission for the management of water resources at the regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s-1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation are essential to the understanding of soil moisture status which is vital for vegetation regeneration in the arid ecosystems. The purposes of this study are (1) to understand the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in Sudan during 1948-2005 by using high quality global precipitation data known as Precipitation REConstruction (PREC), which has been constructed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, and (2) to discuss the relationship between precipitation variability and moisture flux based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to ascertain the potential causes of the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in the region. Results showed that (1) annual and monthly precipitation in Sudan had great spatial variability, and mean annual precipitation varied from almost nil in the North to about 1500 mm in the extreme Southwest; (2) precipitation of the main rain season, i.e., July, August and September, and annual total precipitation in the central part of Sudan decreased significantly during 1948-2005; (3) abrupt change points were found in the annual, July, August and September in the late 1960s, when precipitation decreased more rapidly than in other periods; and (4) the decreasing precipitation was associated with the weakening African summer monsoon. The summer moisture flux over Sudan tended to be decreasing after the late 1960s which decreased the northward propagation of moisture flux in North Africa. This study provides a complementary view to the previous studies that attempted to explain the Sahel persistent drought and possible causes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupling of the Community Land Model (CLM3) to the ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) substantially improves the simulation of mean climate over West Africa relative to an older version of RegCM3 coupled to the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). Two 10-year simulations (1992–2001) show that the seasonal timing and magnitude of mean monsoon precipitation more closely match observations when the new land surface scheme is implemented. Specifically, RegCM3–CLM3 improves the timing of the monsoon advance and retreat across the Guinean Coast, and reduces a positive precipitation bias in the Sahel and Northern Africa. As a result, simulated temperatures are higher, thereby reducing the negative temperature bias found in the Guinean Coast and Sahel in RegCM3–BATS. In the RegCM3–BATS simulation, warmer temperatures in northern latitudes and wetter soils near the coast create excessively strong temperature and moist static energy gradients, which shifts the African Easterly Jet further north than observed. In the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation, the migration and position of the African Easterly Jet more closely match reanalysis winds. This improvement is triggered by drier soil conditions in the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation and an increase in evapotranspiration per unit precipitation. These results indicate that atmosphere–land surface coupling has the ability to impact regional-scale circulation and precipitation in regions exhibiting strong hydroclimatic gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]