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The increasing global warming trend has resulted in the mass loss of most glaciers. The Urumqi Vally, located in the dry and cold zone of China, and its widely dispersed glaciers are significant to the regional ecological environment, oasis economic development, and industrial and agricultural production. This is representative of glaciers in Middle Asia and represents one of the world's longest observed time series of glaciers, beginning in 1959. The Urumqi Headwater Glacier No. 1 (UHG-1) has a dominant presence in the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). This paper supplies a comprehensive analysis of past studies and future modeling of glacier changes in the Urumqi Valley. It has received insufficient attention in the past, and the mass balance of UHG-1 was used to verify that the geodetic results and the OGGM model simulation results are convincing. The main conclusions are: The area of 48.68 ± 4.59 km2 delineated by 150 glaciers in 1958 decreased to 21.61 ± 0.27 km2 delineated by 108 glaciers in 2022, with a reduction of 0.47 ± 0.04 km2·a−1 (0.96% a−1 in 1958–2022). The glacier mass balance by geodesy is −0.69 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1 in 2000–2022, which is just deviating from the measured result (−0.66 m w.e.a−1), but the geodetic result in this paper can be enough to reflect the glacier changes (−0.65 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1) of the URB in 2000–2022. The future loss rate of area and volume will undergo a rapid and then decelerating process, with the fastest and slowest inflection points occurring around 2035 and 2070, respectively. High temperatures and large precipitation in summer accelerate glacier loss, and the corresponding lag period of glacier change to climate is about 2–3 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture represents the "cause" and the "victim" of climate change. Almost 30 percent of greenhouse gas emissions come from the agricultural sector. They contribute to global warming and therefore significantly affect the sustainability of agricultural production systems. The aim of the paper is to determine which factors have the greatest influence on the greenhouse gas emission from agriculture. For this purpose, a dynamic panel analysis for 26 members of the European Union in the period from 2013 to 2021 in the paper is conducted. The results of the analysis suggest that the capacity for biofuel production, organic agricultural production and greenhouse gas emissions from the previous period have the greatest impact on the same emissions from agriculture. The results of this research can serve policy makers in formulating strategies for the development of food systems that will pollute the environment to a lesser extent and use available resources more rationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic effects of global warming have gained considerable attention in the recent economic literature. While the relationship between rainfall and agriculture is well known, precipitations alone do not capture the soil water availability, which depends on the evaporation of the water (potential evapotranspiration [PET]). This paper presents evidence of the relationship between aridification and agricultural productivity. We show that areas that have experienced increased precipitations have become arider due to increased PET. We then project future aridification patterns. We find that the global arid area will increase by 3.9 per cent by 2040. This implies a global loss of about 20 million tons of maize, 19 million tons of rice, 8 million tons of soybeans and 21 million tons of wheat until 2040 if no action to combat desertification is taken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial revolution and fast deforestation in 20th century pushes the earth to face climate change. Climate change became one of the most important global environmental challenges of the 21st century. Besides other weather abnormalities it is potential threat to world food security as agriculture production is directly dependent on various weather parameters. Even a small alteration in climate, adversely affects agriculture by decreasing the production. Global temperatures have already increased by 0.70°C over the past century and prediction of more rise of temperature is there. Possible changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration are expected to significantly impact crop growth. India could experience a 40% decline in agricultural productivity by the 2080s. Various food grain crops are going to affect badly under the temperature rise situation. It has been projected that under the scenario of a 2.50°C to 4.90°C temperature rise, rice yields will drop by 32% to 40% and wheat yields by 41% to 52%. This paper summarized study related to climate change projections and its impact on production of various crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the interplay between the biophysical and economic geographies of climate change impacts on agriculture. It does so by bridging the extensive literature on climate impacts on yields and physical productivity in global crop production, with the literature on the role of adaptation through international trade in determining the consequences of climate change impacts. Unlike previous work in this area, instead of using a specific crop model or a set of models, we employ a statistical meta-analysis that encompasses all studies available to the IPCC-AR5 report. This permits us to isolate specific elements of the spatially heterogeneous biophysical geography of climate impacts, including the role of initial temperature, differential patterns of warming, and varying crop responses to warming across the globe. We combine these climate impact estimates with the Global Trade Analysis Project model of global trade in order to estimate the national welfare changes that are decomposed into three components: the direct (biophysical impact) contribution to welfare, the terms of trade effect, and the allocative efficiency effect. We find that when we remove the spatial variation in climate impacts, the terms of trade impacts are cut in half. Given the inherent heterogeneity of climate impacts in agriculture, this points to the important role of trade in distributing the associated welfare impacts. When we allow the biophysical impacts to vary across the empirically estimated uncertainty range taken from the meta-analysis, we find that the welfare consequences are highly asymmetric, with much larger losses at the low end of the yield distribution. This interaction between the magnitude and heterogeneity of biophysical climate shocks and their welfare effects highlight the need for detailed representation of both in projecting climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This Address considers a range of issues relating to the contribution of meat consumption and livestock production to global warming, given the need highlighted by the Committee on Climate Change ( CCC) to reduce global GHG emissions by over 50% by 2050. The IPCC Climate Change 2014 report recognised that demand oriented measures may also contribute to GHG mitigation. The paper reviews a number of studies which examine demand-led mitigation potentials, and concludes that such estimates ignore the market effects of changes in meat consumption habits or demand oriented policies. A simple partial equilibrium model of beef, poultry, pig and ovine meats is developed for the major regions of the world to explore the impact of a range of scenarios which might reduce meat consumption and GHG emissions. These include emissions taxation, long-term trends in reduction of red meat consumption in developed economy regions, and supply side improvements in livestock emissions intensities. The paper discusses problems associated with many published demand elasticities suitable for incorporation into a market model, problems of selection from widely varying published estimates and their appropriateness for longer-run projections. The dearth of published supply elasticity estimates is also highlighted. The modelling concludes that economic and population growth to 2050 without any mitigation measures will lead to a 21% increase in per capita meat consumption and a 63% increase in total consumption and GHG emissions by 2050. However, the mitigation projections from the scenarios explored only generate a 14% reduction in cumulative emissions from the baseline 2050 projections, insufficient to meet the CCC target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines farm household-level impacts of climate change by examining the relationship between climatic variables and Vietnamese agricultural output. The Ricardian technique is applied with panel data which accounts for both adaptation strategies and household characteristics. This study proposes a two-stage Hsiao model to correct for collinearity between climatic variables and individual effects. The results show that in the dry season, increases in temperatures are beneficial to all farms in the warmer southern regions, while increases in precipitation will damage only irrigated farms in the Central and South regions. The impact of higher temperature in the wet season is similar, except that it will negatively affect net revenue of irrigated farms in the long run. More rainfall in the wet season will increase net revenue in the North region only. Finally, this study combines the estimated results with future climate scenarios to predict how future changes in climate will affect farmers on aggregate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m². The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices showthe greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural production across the African continent is subjected to various effects of climate variability. One of the main staple foods in Sub-Saharan Africa is maize. However, limited scientific research has recently focused on understanding the possible effects of hydro-climatic variability on maize production. The aim of the present work was to contribute to policy and climate adaptation, thus reducing the vulnerability of maize production to climate change over Equatorial Africa. This study firstly examined long-term trends of precipitation (PRE), soil moisture (SM), actual evapotranspiration (E), and potential evapotranspiration (Ep), as well as surface air temperatures, including the minimum (TMIN) and maximum (TMAX). Secondly, the relationship between maize production and these climate variables was quantified for 18 Equatorial African countries (EQCs) over 1980−2021. To assess the linear trends, Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope tests were used to quantify the magnitude of the hydro-climatic variable trends at the 5% significance level, and Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the relation of these climate parameters with the maize production. The annual mean PRE declined at 0.03 mm day−110a−1. Other climate variables increased at different rates: SM at 0.02 mmday−110a−1, E at 0.03 mm day−110a−1, Ep at 0.02 mm day−1 10a−1, TMIN and TMAX at 0.01 °C day−110a−1. A regional analysis revealed heterogeneous significant wet–dry and warm–cool trends over the EQCs. While, spatially, dry and warm climates were observed in the central to eastern areas, wet and warm conditions dominated the western regions. Generally, the correlations of maize production with the E, Ep, TMAX, and TMIN were strong (r > 0.7) and positive, while moderate (r > 0.45) correlations of maize production with PRE and SM were obvious. These country-wide analyses highlight the significance of climate change policies and offer a scientific basis for designing tailored adaptation strategies in rainfed agricultural regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and agriculture are intensely interrelated global processes and therefore a change in climate affects agricultural production. One such change is global warming which is projected to have significant impacts on environment affecting agriculture, including higher carbon dioxide emission, rise in atmospheric temperature, higher glacial run-off, changed precipitation and the interaction of these elements. These conditions determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the human population and domesticated animals. The present paper might help to anticipate and adapt farming to maximize agricultural production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a reply by the authors to a commentary on their paper entitled The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach, published in the September 1994 issue of the American Economic Review. In our paper we developed an approach to measuring the impact of global warming on agriculture. We call this approach Ricardian because it relies upon standard rent theory as a way of identifying the impact of changes on net economic welfare. We compared the Ricardian approach with the traditional production-function approach, which uses agricultural production functions but has great difficulty identifying all the other adjustments that farmers make in response to changing external conditions. The Ricardian approach is particularly well-suited to a tremendously heterogenous sector because it can rely upon reduced-form estimation and does not require the impossible task of constructing structural models of hundreds of crops in thousands of locations. Our Ricardian approach assumes that the existing pattern of agricultural land rents and land prices reflects the long-run equilibrium economic effect of climate and other geophysical and economic variables. Standard economic reasoning shows that, by calculating the estimated effects of perturbing the climatic variables, we can project the impact of climate change on economic welfare.

The process of climate warming significantly affects agroclimatic resources and agricultural production. We study the agroclimatic resources and their variability on the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan (Russia). The Bashkortostan has a high agricultural potential and holds a leading position in the country in the production of grain crops, potatoes, milk, and honey. Currently, no detailed studies have been conducted for this area to assess the effects of global climate change on agro-climatic resources. World experience shows such research becomes strategically important for regions with powerful agricultural production. We used the sums of average daily air temperatures above 0 and 10 °C, the G.T. Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient, and the Ped aridity (humidification) index as agroclimatic indicators. We used data of long-term meteorological observations of 30 meteorological stations for the period of 1961–2020. We revealed the long-term dynamics of the agroclimatic indicators and the spatial and temporal regularities in their distribution on the territory of Bashkortostan. There is a steady increase in the sums of average daily air temperatures above 0 and 10 °C. Against this background, aridity increases, which is especially manifested in the southern parts of the Republic of Bashkortostan. We assessed the impact of agroclimatic indicators on the main types of agricultural crops in the republic. We revealed that the greatest positive impact on the yield of oilseeds, cereals, and industrial crops is made by precipitation at the beginning (r = 0.50, r = 0.44, and r = 0.52, respectively) and in the middle of the growing season (r = 0.55, r = 0.76, and r = 0.51, respectively). Temperature and precipitation during the growing season have a complex effect on cereals. This is proven by correlations with HCS and the Ped index (r = 0.45 and r = −0.56, respectively). Aridity at the beginning of the growing season affects the yield of oilseeds and potatoes. This is confirmed by correlations with the Ped index (r = −0.49 and r = −0.52, respectively). In general, the aridity of the growing season has a significant impact on the yield of cereals (r = −0.57). Negative relationships have been found between the air temperature growing season and the yield of potatoes (r = −0.50) and cereals (r = −0.53). The results of the study were compared with data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service database. We identified climate trends under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. These scenarios should be taken into account when developing plans for the adaptation of agriculture in the Republic of Bashkortostan to changes in the regional climate. Maximum decrease in precipitation is established for the RCP 6.0 scenario. This can have an extremely negative impact on crop yields. This problem is especially relevant for the southern part of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The information presented in the study will allow for a more effective adaptation of the agricultural sector to current and future climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper in three parts, climate change is approached by dealing with the three sides from which the danger comes: (i) global warming, (ii) increasing climate variability, (iii) more (and possibly more severe) meteorological and climatological extreme events. These are the three panels of this triptych review and the right panel on climate extremes and society's responses, including mitigation attempts as part of preparedness of African farmers, is this part. The occurrence of more (and possibly more severe) extreme meteorological/climatological events, as another likely consequence of climate change, is discussed, reviewing the literature and dealing for Africa with recent droughts and famines. It appears that there is more than sufficient proof that the numbers of disasters have risen globally, and on average at an increasing rate, over the last half a century, with more evidence in the later decades. Extreme hazards have a shorter recurrence time but whether they also have become more severe cannot be easily determined. This is due to developments in observations, populations and vulnerabilities and lack of developments in climate models. Only for increased temperature related disasters, severity has clearly become larger. However, recent more realistic calculations appear to suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. In physical terms, there is also little or no evidence of increased severity of floods over the past century. Increasing farmer preparedness will be an important part of better responses to these conditions. The traditional response farming as to droughts, floods (annual recession and recurrent occasional ones), strong winds and other serious disasters should be among starting points. At the end of this paper, the contributions that tropical agriculture can make to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) in win-win situations are also dealt with. Soil carbon sequestration has a higher mitigation potential than emission reductions in African agriculture, although both may be important. These are best achieved under management systems with higher carbon density, as well as improved soil conservation. Agroforestry, assisted natural regeneration, forest rehabilitation, forest gardens, and improved forest fallow projects should all be eligible under the Clean Development Mechanism. Throughout the paper text boxes are used that illustrate local conditions that must be taken into account to understand the impacts/consequences of climate change for African farmers and how they may cope with them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper in three parts, climate change is approached by dealing with the three sides from which the danger comes: (i) global warming, (ii) increasing climate variability, (iii) more (and possibly more severe) meteorological and climatological extreme events. These are the three panels of this triptych review and this left panel is about (ii). This second panel starts with a compelling review of the present situation of food security, referring to African examples to improve the situation. Then the influence is discussed that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has on increasing climate variability as a consequence of climate change. It is indicated that, to date, climate models have been developed with little knowledge of agricultural systems dynamics. On the other hand one can illustrate that agricultural policy analysis has been conducted with little knowledge of climate dynamics. As a direct consequence of capricious behaviour of particularly rainfall in West Africa, the adaptation of its farmers has lagged behind enormously. This statement is valid for most farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Within the climate science community there is an emerging effort to make findings more suitable for decision making, but as yet there is little consensus as to how data may be relied upon for decision making. Then a lot of attention is paid to how response farming, that is thoroughly defined, can play an important role in coping with the consequences of climate variability. Response farming is often limited envisaging rainfall events, but coping with weather and climate (and often soil) disasters as well as using windows of weather and climate (and often soil) opportunities are other forms of responding to weather and climate (and often soil) realities. Services such as in advice on design rules on above and below ground microclimate management or manipulation, with respect to any appreciable microclimatic improvement: shading, wind protection, mulching, other surface modification, drying, storage, frost protection and so on belong to such "response farming" agrometeorological services. Ideally, to get optimal preparations, farmers get advisories/services through extension intermediaries, backed by scientists, to properly understand decision options through discussions supported by economic analyses. Throughout the paper text boxes are used that illustrate local conditions that must be taken into account if one wants to understand the impacts/consequences of climate change for African farmers and how they may cope with them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the most important issues among researchers, scientists, planners and politicians in the present times. Of all the climatic elements, temperature plays a major role in detecting climatic change brought about by urbanization and industrialization. This paper, therefore, attempts to study the temperature changes at Dehradun city by analyzing the time series data of annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature from 1967 to 2007. Data for the study has been analyzed in three parts by running linear regression and by taking anomalies for the whole period from 1967 to 2007, phase one 1967-1987 and phase two 1988-2007. The study of linear trend indicated increasing trends in annual maximum, annual minimum and annual mean temperatures. During 1967-2007 annual maximum, annual minimum and annual mean temperatures increased about 0.43°C, 0.38°C and 0.49°C, respectively. The analysis of temperature data in two phases also revealed an increase in annual maximum, annual minimum and annual mean temperature. However, temperature increase in second phase was more pronounced in relation to first phase. During second phase (1988-2007) annual maximum, annual minimum and annual mean temperatures increased about 0.42°C, 0.59°C and 0.54°C, respectively. The perceptible increase in temperature during second phase is mainly attributed to urbanization and industrialization process initiated at Dehradun particularly after becoming the state capital of newly carved out state of Uttarakhand since the year 2000. The analysis also highlight significantly the role of extreme vulnerability of rising temperatures at Dehradun and urban population will constantly be affected by the change in the temperature which controls the comfort level of the inhabitants. Also, the rising temperatures in Doon valley are not a healthy signature for crop production and water resources in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models, regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few ‘known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: Ecophysiological models are widely used to forecast potential impacts of climate change on future agricultural productivity and to examine options for adaptation by local stakeholders and policy makers. However, protocols followed in such assessments vary to such an extent that they constrain cross-study syntheses and increase the potential for bias in projected impacts. We reviewed 221 peer-reviewed papers that used crop simulation models to examine diverse aspects of how climate change might affect agricultural systems. Six subject areas were examined: target crops and regions; the crop model(s) used and their characteristics; sources and application of data on [CO2] and climate; impact parameters evaluated; assessment of variability or risk; and adaptation strategies. Wheat, maize, soybean and rice were considered in approximately 170 papers. The USA (55 papers) and Europe (64 papers) were the dominant regions studied. The most frequent approach used to simulate response to CO2 involved adjusting daily radiation use efficiency (RUE) and transpiration, precluding consideration of the interacting effects of CO2, stomatal conductance and canopy temperature, which are expected to exacerbate effects of global warming. The assumed baseline [CO2] typically corresponded to conditions 10–30 years earlier than the date the paper was accepted, exaggerating the relative impacts of increased [CO2]. Due in part to the diverse scenarios for increases in greenhouse gas emissions, assumed future [CO2] also varied greatly, further complicating comparisons among studies. Papers considering adaptation predominantly examined changes in planting dates and cultivars; only 20 papers tested different tillage practices or crop rotations. Risk was quantified in over half the papers, mainly in relation to variability in yield or effects of water deficits, but the limited consideration of other factors affecting risk beside climate change per se suggests that impacts of climate change were overestimated relative to background variability. A coordinated crop, climate and soil data resource would allow researchers to focus on underlying science. More extensive model intercomparison, facilitated by modular software, should strengthen the biological realism of predictions and clarify the limits of our ability to forecast agricultural impacts of climate change on crop production and associated food security as well as to evaluate potential for adaptation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important agricultural production area in China. Crop production in the NCP is sensitive to changes in both climate and management practices. While previous studies showed a negative impact of climatic change on crop yield since 1980s, the confounding effects of climatic and agronomic factors have not been separately investigated. This paper used 25 years of crop data from three locations (Nanyang, Zhengzhou and Luancheng) across the NCP, together with daily weather data and crop modeling, to analyse the contribution of changes in climatic and agronomic factors to changes in grain yields of wheat and maize. The results showed that the changes in climate were not uniform across the NCP and during different crop growth stages. Warming mainly occurred during the vegetative (preflowering) growth stage of wheat and maize, while there was a cooling trend or no significant change in temperatures during the postflowering stage of wheat (spring) or maize (autumn). If varietal effects were excluded, warming during vegetative stages would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for both crops, generally leading to a negative impact on crop production. However, autonomous adoption of new crop varieties in the NCP was able to compensate the negative impact of climatic change. For both wheat and maize, the varietal changes helped stabilize the length of preflowering period against the shortening effect of warming and, together with the slightly reduced temperature in the postflowering period, extend the length of the grain-filling period. The combined effect led to increased wheat yield at Zhengzhou and Luancheng; increased maize yield at Nanyang and Luancheng; stabilized wheat yield at Nanyang, and a slight reduction in maize yield at Zhengzhou, compared with the yield change caused entirely by climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Analyzing 118 countries between 1960 and 2016, we find that higher temperatures correlate with higher urbanization rates in the long run, where this relationship is much more pronounced than any short-term linkage. The long-run relationship between global warming and urbanization is also conditional upon country-specific conditions. This long-run association is especially relevant in poorer and more agriculture-dependent countries with an urban bias as well as in initially non-urban countries in hotter climate zones. We also provide suggestive evidence that warming contributes to losses in agricultural productivity and to pro-urban shifts in public goods provision and that the global warming-urbanization nexus is partly mediated through these channels. Consequently, we argue that the estimated long-run relationship between temperature and urbanization partly captures the potential impact of increasing temperatures on urbanization via a rural push (by impairing agriculture) and an urban pull (via an increased demand for public goods primarily supplied in cities). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought frequently limits Australian wheat production, and the expected future increase in temperatures and rainfall variability will further challenge productivity. A modelling approach captured plant×environment×management interactions to simulate water-stress patterns experienced by wheat crops at representative locations across the Australian wheatbelt for 33 climate model projections, considering the 'business as usual' emission scenario RCP8.5. The results indicate that projections of future water-stress patterns are region specific. Significant variations in projected impacts were found across climate models, providing local ranges of uncertainty to consider in planning efforts. Most climate models projected an increase in the frequency of severe water-stress conditions in the Western area, the largest producing region, and fewer severe water stresses in other regions. Where found, reductions in water-stress conditions were largely due to shorter crop cycles (a result of warmer temperatures), increased water use efficiency (resulting from increased CO2 levels), and, in some cases, increased local rainfall. Overall, simulations indicate that all areas of the Australian wheatbelt will continue to experience severe water-stress conditions (43.9, 42.6, and 40.2% for 2030, 2050, and 2070 compared with 42.8% for 1990). Given projected frequencies of severe water stress and warmer conditions, efforts towards maintaining or improving yields are essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is an unanimously accepted phenomenon by the international scientific community, being already highlighted by the analysis of observational data over long periods of time, with an increase in temperature of over 1 °C. Climate change in Romania is part of the global context, taking into account the regional conditions, with an increasing trend of arid summer. While the link between high temperatures, climate change and rainfall has been modeled in detail, the situation is not the same for plant water accessibility. The period of time between 1898 and the present, corresponding to the annual records of precipitation and evapotranspiration, overlapped with important political and administrative changes in the studied area, and with extensive hydro-amelioration works. The aim of the paper is to statistically follow the evolution over time of precipitation, namely of evapotranspiration measured in Western Romania, which would allow the expression of conclusions regarding the improvement directions of the water regime. In order to follow the evolution in time of these data, the interval of 1898–2019 was divided into three periods: 1898–1950, 1951–1989 and 1990–2019, respectively. The increase in temperature, especially during the vegetation period and the large number of years in which evapotranspiration quantitatively exceeds the precipitation, indicating the need for effective measures to regulate the water balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature has mixed findings regarding the impact of climate change on agricultural production, probably due to different choices of dependent variables. Based on panel data analysis of 140 countries from an extended period, i.e., 1961 to 2013, this study applies the explicit method of using TFP as the dependent variable, but also delivers estimations with the implicit approach of using agricultural output as the dependent variable, so as to be able to directly compare the results with the mainstream trends in the existing literature. We found that using agricultural TFP as the dependent variable generates more consistent and robust results. We also found a strong negative impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. A one-unit downward deviation of precipitation (i.e., drought) and one unit of upward deviation of temperature (i.e., global warming) decrease the TFP by 0.530 and 0.494, respectively. As we have one of the largest sample sizes when it comes to studying the effect of climate change, we carried out an exploration by dividing the sample into different categories of developed vs. developing countries and cold vs. warm climates, as well as by splitting the time series into two distinct periods. We found that climate change has had a heterogeneous impact on countries with different development levels, with negative impacts on developing countries and positive effects on developed countries, which leads to the rising concern of the impact of climate change on inequality. This heterogeneity and the uneven impact found in this study strongly suggest the need for countries to work together to coordinate and mitigate these adverse effects rather than to adapt to the situation by focusing on the input variations, as the latter will increase the inequality effect of climate change and add to an already unstable global environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Myanmar is the country with the highest economic vulnerability (EV) to climate change in the Southeast Asian region. The dry zone of Myanmar occupies two-thirds of the agricultural lands and it has higher temperatures than elsewhere in the country. Climate change has severe impacts on agricultural production in this region. Moreover, changes in the precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of crop failures in the short-run and production declines in the long run. Therefore, an assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on crop production in the dry zone of Myanmar is very relevant. This paper examines the interactions between agriculture and climate and assesses the economic impact of climate change while using a Ricardian model. A cross-sectional survey covering three regions in the central dry zone: (Magwe, Mandalay, and Sagaing regions) was conducted, yielding a sample of 425 farmers. A non-linear relationship between climate indicators (temperature and precipitation) and revenue of land was found. The marginal effects were calculated by selecting economic and socio-demographic variables. The estimated marginal impacts suggest that the projected changes in temperature will affect the crop productivity of the region. The results also show that the temperature and rainfall components of global warming are both important. Predictions from three global circulation models all confirm that temperature is predicted to increase in all seasons. A significant marginal impact of increasing temperature on the net revenue of farm households was observed in the region. These findings call for policy makers and development planners to articulate the necessary climate change adaptation measures and mitigation options for reducing the negative impacts of climate change. Improved management and conservation of the available water resources could generate water for irrigation purposes and the dissemination of climate smart agricultural practices could lessen the negative impacts of climate change effects on agriculture in the dry zone of Myanmar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Climate change is increasing global temperatures and the frequency and severity of droughts in many regions. These anthropogenic stresses pose a significant threat to plant performance and crop production. The plant‐associated microbiome modulates the impacts of biotic and abiotic stresses on plant fitness. However, climate change‐induced alteration in composition and activities of plant microbiomes can affect host functions. Here, we highlight recent advancements in our understanding of the impact of climate change (warming and drought) on plant–microbiome interactions and on their ecological functions from genome to ecosystem scales. We identify knowledge gaps, propose new concepts and make recommendations for future research directions. It is proposed that in the short term (years to decades), the adaptation of plants to climate change is mainly driven by the plant microbiome, whereas in the long term (century to millennia), the adaptation of plants will be driven equally by eco‐evolutionary interactions between the plant microbiome and its host. A better understanding of the response of the plant and its microbiome interactions to climate change and the ways in which microbiomes can mitigate the negative impacts will better inform predictions of climate change impacts on primary productivity and aid in developing management and policy tools to improve the resilience of plant systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change seriously influences the livelihoods of African farmers. It was, therefore, felt useful to make an inventory of what climate change really means for them. In this review in three parts, climate change is approached by dealing with the three sides from which the danger comes: (i) global warming, (ii) increasing climate variability, (iii) more (and possibly more severe) meteorological and climatological extreme events. These are the three panels of this triptych review. Vulnerable communities already suffer. They are, therefore, urgently in need of assistance aimed at building resilience, and at undertaking climate change adaptation efforts to survive and to maintain their livelihoods. Climate change adaptation projects - especially if implemented in the context of adaptation strategies at the macro level - often mobilize public and private stakeholders, engaging them in the problem-solving process. Scientists have an important role to play in these projects. One of the major problems in guiding rural change, in a rural response to climate change, is the low formal level of education that most farmers have and for which governments have done very little to upgrade it. Improved climate literacy is needed among farmers and a better trained extension that can guide farmers in further rainfall monitoring and rainfall interpretation. Further agro-ecosystem observations that, with the rainfall distribution, explain yields and yield differences are also needed. While it is relatively easy to define technical messages that can be communicated, one must look beyond "adaptation to current climate variability". The basic vulnerability factors of communities must be targeted. One of the problems faced is that experts on climate variability and climate change do not really know what information the grassroots need in the short- and medium-term. However, people assisting vulnerable communities do not know what science generated products are available and how to use them. In this first part of the paper, the consequences of global warming are dealt with at length. Increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns get attention first. Other consequences of increasing atmospheric carbondioxide contents and how they influence agricultural production in Africa are also discussed. Ten text boxes distributed over the three parts illustrate local conditions that must be taken into account to understand the impacts/consequences of climate change for African farmers and how they may cope with them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The south-west of Australia is being affected by a warming, drying trend in its climate. In response to these changing climatic conditions, as well as changes in farm commodity price relativities, farmers have adjusted their mix of enterprises to favour cereal production. As a result, an increasing potential source of cereal straw for bioenergy production has emerged. This paper examines how temporal and spatial costs of cereal straw accumulation may affect the establishment of a bioenergy plant in the region, with climate change impacts being highlighted. Logistics models based on mathematical programming are constructed for a range of plant sizes. Modelling results identify the cost structures of cereal straw accumulation for these plant sizes. Plant sizes are characterised by different cost structures and levels of volatility in their costs of grain accumulation. The profitability of bioenergy production based on cereal straw in this region of Australia is particularly exposed to climate variability, especially for larger plant sizes. The projected change in climate supports a relatively small reduction in the costs of cereal straw accumulation. These findings will affect decision-making over investment in a long-lived specific asset such as a bioenergy processing plant. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Until recently, most assessments of the impact of climate change on the food and agriculture sector have focused on the implications for production and global supply of food, with less consideration of other components of the food chain. This paper takes a broader view and explores the multiple effects that global warming and climate change could have on food systems and food security. It also suggests strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change in several key policy domains of importance for food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: China is one of the most important rice production countries in the world, and maintaining high rice productivity in China is very important for world food security. While previous studies showed that rice production in China has been and will be negatively impacted by global warming, the confounding effects of climatic change, variety improvement and agronomic managements have not been separately investigated. In this paper we combine an analysis of climate and rice growth data with crop modeling to investigate the impact of changes in climate, rice varieties, and agronomic management on rice productivity at four sites (Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan) in China. The results showed a significant increase in minimum temperature during all rice growth stages at Wuchang and Zhenjiang, and from heading to maturity at Xinyang, but little change at Hanyuan. Global warming would have led to a reduction in the length of rice growing period and a reduction in grain yield at all study sites, if no varietal changes had occurred. However, the adoption of new rice varieties stabilized growing duration, increased harvest index and grain yield at three of the four sites. In the face of future warming, a planned breeding effort may be needed to offset the negative impact of future climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper reviews the knowledge on effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe and the consequences for policy and research. Warming is expected to lead to a northward expansion of suitable cropping areas and a reduction of the growing period of determinate crops (e.g. cereals), but an increase for indeterminate crops (e.g. root crops). Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will directly enhance plant productivity and also increase resource use efficiencies.In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and the turnover of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe.Policy will have to support the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change by encouraging the flexibility of land use, crop production, farming systems etc. In doing so, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture, and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and social functions in different European regions. Policy will also need to be concerned with agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a reduction in emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, an increase in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils and the growing of energy crops to substitute fossil energy use. The policies to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change will need to be linked closely to the development of agri-environmental schemes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.Research will have further to deal with the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production, on the quality of crop and animal production, of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. There is also a need to study combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy to develop a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In recent decades, grain self‐sufficiency has been a key security issue for certain countries, such as Russia, China, India, and France. Climate change may affect agricultural production and possibly influence the grain self‐sufficiency of some countries, threatening their food security. This article provides an updated integrated assessment of the impact of climate change on grain self‐sufficiency at the country level. The study links climatic variables projected by global climate models to economic variables simulated by a global multiregion multisector economic model. Although climate change may considerably reduce land productivity, our simulation results show that climate change in the long term modestly impacts regional grain self‐sufficiency, as the direct effects on yield are largely canceled out by changes in grain production via adaptation measures taken by producers in response to market signals. Behavioral changes of consumers also contribute modestly to cancel out the adverse impact on land productivity. In the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the adverse impact of climate change on land productivity in 2100 may reach to 25% of the current level, but declines to 5% when changes in production and consumption are considered, thus indicating the role of long‐term adaptation by economic agents. Key Points: The country‐level impact of climate change on grain self‐sufficiency is studiedClimate change modestly impacts regional grain self‐sufficiency over the long termAdaption by producers and consumers markedly mitigates the impact of climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concentration of greenhouse gases has increased as a result of anthropogenic activities, which resulted in the warming of the earth atmosphere. The agriculture sector contributes to emission of greenhouse gases and is also worst affected from the global warming. The increasing concentration of carbon dioxide may have fertilization effect on the productivity of rice-wheat system, but this effect will be negated by the simultaneous increase of temperature. The rise in the day-time maximum temperature has positive effect on the rice yield but negatively affected the wheat yield. While rise in the nighttime minimum temperature decreased the yield of rice. Our goal here is to discuss the possible effects of shift in the climatic variables on the productivity of rice-wheat system that will provide important insights for adapting to it. Various options to mitigate the negative impacts of climatic shift on the productivity of rice-wheat system have been discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have analyzed the impact of climate change on crop productivity, but comparing the performance of water management systems has rarely been explored. Because water supply and crop demand in agro-systems may be affected by global climate change in shaping the spatial patterns of agricultural production, we should evaluate how and where irrigation practices are effective in mitigating climate change effects. Here we have constructed simple, general models, based on biological mechanisms and a theoretical framework, which could be useful in explaining and predicting crop productivity dynamics. We have studied maize in irrigated and rain-fed systems at a provincial scale, from 1996 to 2009 in Spain, one of the most prominent “hot-spots” in future climate change projections. Our new approach allowed us to: (1) evaluate new structural properties such as the stability of crop yield dynamics, (2) detect nonlinear responses to climate change (thresholds and discontinuities), challenging the usual linear way of thinking, and (3) examine spatial patterns of yield losses due to water constraints and identify clusters of provinces that have been negatively affected by warming. We have reduced the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on maize productivity by improving the understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors and providing a better spatial comprehension of the key processes. We have identified water stress and water management systems as being key causes of the yield gap, and detected vulnerable regions where efforts in research and policy should be prioritized in order to increase maize productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic warming is often predicted to reduce wheat yield and grain quality in China. However, direct evidence is still lacking. We conducted a three-year experiment with a Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI) facility to examine the responses of winter wheat growth and plant N accumulation to a moderate temperature increase of 1.5°C predicted to prevail by 2050 in East China. Three warming treatments (AW: all-day warming; DW: daytime warming; NW: nighttime warming) were applied for an entire growth period. Consistent warming effects on wheat plant were recorded across the experimental years. An increase of ca. 1.5°C in daily, daytime and nighttime mean temperatures shortened the length of pre-anthesis period averagely by 12.7, 8.3 and 10.7 d (P<0.05), respectively, but had no significant impact on the length of the post-anthesis period. Warming did not significantly alter the aboveground biomass production, but the grain yield was 16.3, 18.1 and 19.6% (P<0.05) higher in the AW, DW and NW plots than the non-warmed plot, respectively. Warming also significantly increased plant N uptake and total biomass N accumulation. However, warming significantly reduced grain N concentrations while increased N concentrations in the leaves and stems. Together, our results demonstrate differential impacts of warming on the depositions of grain starch and protein, highlighting the needs to further understand the mechanisms that underlie warming impacts on plant C and N metabolism in wheat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) shows that climate change poses severe risks to the Belt and Road region and could cut future crop production. Identifying the positions and features of hotspots, which refer to regions with severe yield loss at 1.5 °C global warming, is the key to developing proper mitigation and adaptation policies to ensure regional food security. This study examined yield loss hotspots of four crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat) at 1.5 °C global warming under RCP8.5. Yield data were derived from simulations of multiple climate-crop model ensembles from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Hotspots were identified by setting a threshold of the 10th percentile of crop yields during the reference period (1986–2005). To quantify the likelihood of crop yield loss hotspots within multi-model ensembles, the agreement of model combinations for hotspots was calculated for each crop at the grid scale with 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution. Results revealed spatial heterogeneity of cultivation structure and hotspot likelihood for four crops. The four crops' production of SA (South Asia) and SEA (Southeast Asia) accounts for more than 40% of the total production in the Belt and Road region, roughly four times the amount produced in CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) and NEA (Northeast Asia). Besides, the hotspots likelihood of maize, rice and soybean is generally larger in SA/SEA than that in CEE/NEA which means the risk of yield reduction is higher in the current main agricultural area. According to IPCC's classification rules for likelihood, four crops' hotspot patterns were displayed under the 1.5 °C global warming. As the highest-yielding crop, maize shows the largest proportion of "likely" hotspots (hotspot likelihood > 66%), which is about 6.48%, accounting for more than four times that of the other three crops. In addition, four crops' hotspots are mainly distributed in SEA and SA. Overall, SEA and SA are vulnerable subregions and maize is the vulnerable crop of the Belt and Road region. Our results could provide information on target areas where mitigation or adaptations are needed to reduce the adverse influence of climate change in the agricultural system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Every decade, a suite of standardized climatological metrics known as climate normals are updated, providing averages of temperature and precipitation data over the previous 30-year period. Although some of these climate normals are directly applicable to agricultural producers, there are additional agroclimate metrics calculated from meteorological data that provide physiologically relevant information for on-farm management decisions. In this study, we identified a suite of energy-based agroclimate metrics and calculated changes over the two most recent normal periods (1981–2010 and 1991–2020), focusing on specialty crop production regions in California. Observed changes in agroclimate metrics were largely consistent with broader global warming trends. While most metrics showed small changes between the two periods, during the 1991–2020 period, the last spring freeze occurred ~5 days earlier as compared to the 1981–2010 period, contributing to a >6 day longer frost-free period in the Sacramento and Salinas Valleys; likewise an additional 6.4 tropical nights (Tn > 20 °C) occurred in the Coachella Valley during the 1991–2020 period. A complementary trend analysis of the agroclimate metrics over the 1981–2020 period showed significant increases in growing degree days across all agricultural regions, while significant increases in heat exposure were found for the Salinas and Imperial Valleys and over the Central Coast region. Moreover, summer reference evapotranspiration increased approximately 40 mm in California's Central Valley during 1981–2020, with implications for agricultural water resources. Quantifying the shifts in these agroclimate metrics between the two most recent 30-year normal periods and the accompanying 40-year trends provides context for understanding and communicating around changing climatic baselines and underscores the need for adaptation to meet the challenge that climate change poses to agriculture both in the future and in the present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and global warming have become the most significant challenges to the agricultural production worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid areas. The main purpose of plant breeding programs now is to produce a genetically wide range of genotypes that can withstand the adverse effects of climate change. Moreover, farmers have to reallocate their cultivars due to their ability to tolerate unfavorable conditions. During this study, two field experiments and climate analysis based on 150 years of data are conducted to reallocate some genotypes of bread wheat in respect to climate change based on their performance under drought stress conditions. Climatic data indicate that there is an increase in temperature over all Egyptian sites coupled with some changes in rain amount. Among the tested cultivars, cultivar Giza 160 was the perfect one, while cultivar Masr 03 was the weakest one. Susceptibility indices are a good tool for discovering the superior genotypes under unfavorable conditions and, interestingly, some of the cultivars with high performance were among the superior cultivars in more than one of the tested traits in this study. Finally, combining the climatic data and the experimental data, we can conclude that cultivars Giza 160 and Sakha 94 are suitable for growning in zones with harsh environments, such as the eastern desert and southern Egypt, while cultivars Gemmeza 11, Sahel 01, Sakha 98, Sids 12, and Sakha 93 are suitable for growning in zones with good growing conditions, such as the Nile Delta region and northern Egypt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change implications are a severe risk to food security and the economy. Global warming could disturb the production of both rainfed and irrigated agriculture thru the amplify of yield water requests in many areas. In this study, the fast-track projections available through the Inter-Sectors Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) were presented and analyzed to assess the effects of two global warming (GW) levels (1.5 and 2.0 °C) on the maize and wheat yields in Egypt. Outcomes proposed spatial variations in the effects of temperature change on crop yield. Compared with the referenced situation, an observed national average change in wheat yield about 5.0% (0.0% to 9.0%) and 5.0% (−3.0% to 14.0%) under GW1.5 and GW2.0 respectively. While for maize yield, the change in national average about −1.0% (−5.0% to 3.0%) and −4.0% (−8.0% to 2.0%) under GW1.5 and GW2.0 respectively. GW1.5 could be helpful for wheat yield, but the positive effect decayed when the warming level reached 2.0 °C overhead the pre-industrial level. Nevertheless, the possible deviations to Egypt's maize production under the GW1.5 and GW2.0 scenarios are unclear where the models do not agree with the sign of change. Adjusting the temperature rise within 1.5 °C would diminish the yield reduction, as it is an extraordinary priority to safeguard crop production. To achieve Progress of innovative agronomic managing plans and swapping to additional drought-resistant crops may be valuable for coping with climate change in regions vulnerable to yield decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ET), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ET may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rapid change in climate patterns potentially driven by global warming is considered to be greatest threats to agriculture. However, little is known about how the change in climate concretely affects agricultural production especially in Nepal with respect to seasons and regions of different altitudes. To examine this issue, we seek to empirically identify the impact of climatic variation on agricultural yield and its variability by utilizing the data of rice, wheat and climate variables in the central region of Nepal. The main focus is on whether the impacts vary across seasons, altitudes and the types of crops. For this purpose, we employ a stochastic production function approach by controlling a novel set of season-wise climatic and geographical variables. The result shows that an increase in the variance of both temperature and rainfall has adverse effects on crop productions in general. On the other hand, a change in the mean levels of the temperature and rainfall induces heterogeneous impacts, which can be considered beneficial, harmful or negligible, depending on the altitudes and the kinds of crops. These results imply that adaptation strategies must be tailor-made in Nepalese agriculture, considering growing seasons, altitudes and the types of crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic release of greenhouse gasses (GHG) has increased in the last 50 years, contributing to global climate change. Because agriculture is one of the major contributors to the production of non-CO2GHG, the opportunities for mitigating GHG emissions from agriculture are often considered by policy makers. However, the implementation of agricultural GHG mitigation policies can have unintended consequences or trade-offs (both negative and positive). A major problem, for policy makers, is that although most of these trade-offs have been described in the past, no overview of them exists; and in many cases, there is no consensus with regard to the impact of the mitigation measures on aspects such as cost effectiveness, social acceptance, environmental impact, etc. The current article gives an overview of the different kinds of trade-off that might occur and their relationships to GHG mitigation and agricultural production. The authors offer policy makers a framework which can be applied to any GHG mitigation measure to determine which trade-offs are the most important and which ones should be taken into consideration. This will help policy makers to create an optimal agricultural GHG mitigation measure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]