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This paper studies the heterogeneous effects of exchange rate and stock market on carbon emission allowance price in four emissions trading scheme pilots in China. We employ a panel quantile regression model, which can describe both individual and distributional heterogeneity. The empirical results illustrate that the effects of explanatory variables on carbon emission allowance price is heterogeneous along the whole quantiles. Specifically, exchange rate has a negative effect on carbon emission allowance price at lower quantiles, while becomes a positive effect at higher quantiles. In addition, a negative effect exists between domestic stock market and carbon emission allowance price, and the intensity decreasing along with the increase of quantile. By contrast, an increasing positive effect is discovered between European stock market and domestic carbon emission allowance prices. Finally, heterogeneous effects on carbon emission allowance price can also be proved in European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although studies have increasingly linked air pollution to specific health outcomes, less well understood is how public perceptions of air quality respond to changing pollutant levels. The growing availability of air pollution measurements and the proliferation of social media provide an opportunity to gauge public discussion of air quality conditions. In this paper, we consider particulate matter (PM) measurements from four Chinese megacities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu) together with 112 million posts on Weibo (a popular Chinese microblogging system) from corresponding days in 2011–2013 to identify terms whose frequency was most correlated with PM levels. These correlations are used to construct an Air Discussion Index (ADI) for estimating daily PM based on the content of Weibo posts. In Beijing, the Chinese city with the most PM as measured by U.S. Embassy monitor stations, we found a strong correlation (R = 0.88) between the ADI and measured PM. In other Chinese cities with lower pollution levels, the correlation was weaker. Nonetheless, our results show that social media may be a useful proxy measurement for pollution, particularly when traditional measurement stations are unavailable, censored or misreported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the causality between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is helpful for policymakers to formulate energy, environmental and economic policies. For the first time, based on nonlinear dynamics, this paper employs multispatial convergent cross mapping (CCM) to revisit the energy-carbon-economy causation for China, India and the G7 countries using both aggregate data and per capita data. The findings indicate that there are significant differences between developing countries and developed countries. A bidirectional nexus between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is found in China and India, but various causal relationships are identified in the G7 countries, including bidirectional, unidirectional and neutral nexus. The results confirm that the decoupling phenomenon is common in most G7 countries. By leveraging a variety of samples and a new approach, this study provides new evidence for policy authorities to formulate country-specific policies to obtain better environmental quality while achieving sustainable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maintaining crop outputs to feed its large population with limited resources while simultaneously mitigating carbon emissions are great challenges for China. Improving the efficiency of resource use in crop production is important in reducing carbon emissions. This paper constructs a methodological framework combining emergy-based indicator accounting and a nonseparable undesirable output slack-based measurement (SBM) data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. This framework is used to explore the efficiency of inputs and outputs and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction potential for crop production systems, using Zhejiang province, China, as a case study. It is found that an emergy synthesis and a nonseparable undesirable output SBM-DEA framework is compatible with the case study. Crop production in Zhejiang province has relied heavily on an increase in agrochemical inputs to maintain agricultural output. Energy and chemical fertilizer use are determined as the province’s major carbon emissions sources. Although carbon emissions per unit of monetary output has decreased sharply, the carbon emissions per unit emergy output has increased, demonstrating a high carbon intensity reality. The DEA highlighted the differences in crop production efficiency, resource factor redundancy and carbon mitigation potential in the different prefectures of the province. To conclude this research, policies to support low carbon agriculture development, including subsidizing low carbon agriculture technology development and expansion and the cancellation of subsidies to high carbon production factors, such as chemical fertilizer production and sales, are discussed to conclude the research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the impact of an endemic fossorial animal, plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae), on soil properties and N2O flux at the Zoige Wetland. Pika burrow and control sites without disturbance by pika were selected to measure the soil water content, bulk density, soil organic matter (SOM), NH4-N content and NO3-N content in August 2012. N2O fluxes were measured with static opaque chambers at these sites in June and August 2012. Pika burrowing altered soil aeration by transferring deeper soil to the surface and by constructing underground burrows, which significantly increased bulk density, and reduced soil water content, SOM and NH4-N content at 0–10 cm and 10–20 cm soil depth. N2O flux had a significant correlation with bulk density, SOM and NH4-N content. Pika burrowing significantly influenced N2O flux by increasing N2O flux at the control site from near zero to 0.063±0.011 mg m-2 h-1. Our findings described how pika burrowing influences the soil traits and significantly increases the principal greenhouse gas N2O emission. As plateau pika was commonly considered as a pest, our findings give a novel clue to effectively manage populations of plateau pika on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the perspective of greenhouse gas emission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal mining is one of the core industries that contribute to the economic development of a country but deteriorate the environment. Being the primary source of energy, coal has become essential to meet the energy demand of a country. It is excavated by both opencast and underground mining methods and affects the environment, especially hydrological cycle, by discharging huge amounts of mine water. Natural hydrological processes have been well known to be vulnerable to human activities, especially large scale mining activities, which inevitably generate surface cracks and subsidence. It is therefore valuable to assess the impact of mining on river runoff for the sustainable development of regional economy. In this paper, the impact of coal mining on river runoff is assessed in one of the national key coal mining sites, Gujiao mining area, Shanxi Province, China. The characteristics of water cycle are described, the similarities and differences of runoff formation are analyzed in both coal mining and pre-mining periods. The integrated distributed hydrological model named MIKE SHE is employed to simulate and evaluate the influence of coal mining on river runoff. The study shows that mining one ton of raw coal leads to the reduction of river runoff by 2.87 m3 between 1981 and 2008, of which the surface runoff decreases by 0.24 m3 and the baseflow by 2.63 m3. The reduction degree of river runoff for mining one ton of raw coal shows an increasing trend over years. The current study also reveals that large scale coal mining initiates the formation of surface cracks and subsidence, which intercepts overland flow and enhances precipitation infiltration. Together with mine drainage, the natural hydrological processes and the stream flows have been altered and the river run off has been greatly reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, China is facing a very serious issue of Air Pollution due to its dreadful impact on the human health as well as the environment. The urban cities in China are the most affected due to their rapid industrial and economic growth. Therefore, it is of extreme importance to come up with new, better and more reliable forecasting models to accurately predict the air quality. This paper selected Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang as three cities from the Jingjinji Region for the study to come up with a new model of collaborative forecasting using Support Vector Regression (SVR) for Urban Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction in China. The present study is aimed to improve the forecasting results by minimizing the prediction error of present machine learning algorithms by taking into account multiple city multi-dimensional air quality information and weather conditions as input. The results show that there is a decrease in MAPE in case of multiple city multi-dimensional regression when there is a strong interaction and correlation of the air quality characteristic attributes with AQI. Also, the geographical location is found to play a significant role in Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang AQI prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred in China for decades. Our understanding of the HFMD transmission process and its determinants is still limited. In this paper, factors that affect the local variation of HFMD transmission process were studied. Three classes of factors, including meteorological, demographic and public health intervention factors, were carefully selected and their effects on HFMD transmission were investigated with Pearson’s correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression models. The determining factors for the variation of HFMD transmission were different for the southeastern and the northwestern regions of China. In the northwest, fadeouts occurred yearly, and the average age at infection and the fadeout were negatively correlated with the population density. In the southeast, HFMD transmission was governed by the combined effects of the birth rate, the relative humidity and the interaction of the Health System Performance and the log of the population density. When the Health System Performance was low, HFMD transmission increased with the population density, but when the Health System Performance was high, the better health performance counteracted the transmission increase due to the higher population density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Air pollution research in Northeast Asia reflects possible political influences. • Japanese research and Korean research both focus on China as source of pollution. • China's researchers do not highlight China's air pollution contributions nor minimize them. • Chinese-Japanese collaborations attribute transboundary air pollution to China. • Chinese-Korean collaborations do not attribute transboundary air pollution to China. In Northeast Asia, the debate among key policy actors regarding air pollution attribution is influenced by the issue's political sensitivity, but it could also be the result of variance in the scientific research. For example, we know that the springtime winds carry desert-originating dust laden with contaminants from industry and energy production out of China eastward to the Korean peninsula and Japan, but domestic contribution from South Korea and Japan must also be recognized. Science would be politicized when scientific findings are handpicked and argued over by politicians, advocacy groups, and pundits, leading key actors, including the general public, to prioritize particular results over others. In this paper we examine whether the atmospheric science literature produces research that varies depending upon funding source and international research collaboration. We survey 174 published atmospheric science studies and use scientometric methods to show that researchers based in both Japan and South Korea focus significantly more on China as the source of transboundary air pollution. China's researchers neither highlight China's air pollution contributions nor minimize them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on carbon spot prices selected from seven carbon pilots, we assess the financial performances related to carbon volatility in China on the overall perspective. According to the results, the Chinese carbon market fluctuated severely at the beginning of carbon trading, but has stabilised in general, despite several dramatic changes related to ‘yearly compliance events’. Long-term memory exists in the volatility series. Moreover, asymmetry exists in the Chinese carbon market, and volatility reacts more severely to good news than to bad news. Finally, we discuss our empirical results, and make certain suggestions regarding firms’ awareness, international cooperation and individual investors not only for policy makers in China but also for other developing countries who are contemplating either commencing carbon trading or improving the current market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands contain large amount of carbon stock that is vulnerable to release into the atmosphere. Mostly because of human impact, the peatlands at Zoige Wetlands face severe degradation, and the groundwater table is now lower than before, which has increased the population of the plateau zokor, a burrowing rodent. However, the impact of these changes on ecosystem carbon flows has not been studied. To investigate how the plateau zokor and the groundwater level alter the ecosystem respiration of the Zoige peatlands, we sampled the CO2 flux of hummocks shaped by the zokors and compared it with the CO2 flux of undisturbed sites with different groundwater table levels. The soil organic carbon (SOC), soil water content (SWC) and soil temperature at 5 cm (T5) were measured. SOC showed no significant difference among the four sampling sites and did not correlate with the CO2 flux, while SWC was found to partly determine the CO2 flux. A linear equation could adequately describe the relationship between the natural logarithm of the ecosystem respiration and the soil temperature. It is demonstrated that descending groundwater table might accelerate ecosystem respiration and the CO2 flux from hummocks was higher than the CO2 flux from the control site in the non-growing season. With rising temperature, the CO2 flux from the control site accelerated faster than that from the hummocks. Our results show that ecosystem respiration was significantly lower from hummocks than at the control site in the growing season. The results on the impact of zokors on greenhouse gas emissions presented in this paper provide a useful reference to help properly manage not only this, but other litter-burrowing mammals at peatland sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large scale character of the interannual variation of precipitation and the urban effect on local annual precipitation anomaly are investigated in this paper based on the 1960-2000 annual precipitation observations at 20 stations in the Beijing region. The results show that: the annual precipitation in the Beijing region possesses the large scale variation character with the linear trend of -1. 197/10 yr, which corresponds to a total reduction of 27.82 mm in annual precipitation in the 41 years; the local annual precipitation anomalies (percent of the normal 1960-2000) show a positive center near the urban area, i. e. urban precipitation island (UPI), whose intensity increases with the linear trend of 0.6621% /10 yr, opposite to the interannual trend of large scale precipitation over the Beijing region; changes in the UPI are also associated with the intensity of synoptic processes of precipitation, and when the synoptic processes are strong (wet years), the intensity of UPI strengthens, while the synoptic processes are weak (dry years), and the UPI disappears in the Beijing region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A time series of satellite data on Chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) that used ocean color was studied to determine mechanisms of phytoplankton variation in recent decade in the Yellow Sea, China during 2003–2015. The variability patterns on seasonal and inter-annual oscillation periods were confirmed using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), and Morlet wavelet transform analyses, respectively. The first EOF mode for Chl-a was dominated by obvious spring and fall blooms in a spatial pattern that was related to the strong mixing of the water masses from the Yellow Sea Cold Warm Mass (YSCWM) and the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) in winter. The second EOF mode for Chl-a showed an opposite spatial pattern between the northern and southern regions. The temporal coefficient showed differences in the timing of blooms. On an inter-annual scale, Chl-a indicated variation at periods of 2–4 years during 2003–2015. Chl-a showed a significantly negative correlation with the sea surface temperature (r = -0.21, p<0.01), with time lags of 4 months (Chl-a ahead). Chl-a was coupled with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, with a positive correlation (r = 0.46, p<0.01) at a lag of 3–5 months (ENSO ahead). The present study demonstrated that the variation in phytoplankton biomass was controlled primarily by water mass seasonally, and it was influenced by ENSO events on an inter-annual scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To tackle urban water issues, the Chinese government has promoted the construction of sponge cities in recent years. Thirty cities have been designated as experimental sites to serve as models for future sponge city construction, as more than 80% of the built-up urban areas in China must reach the standards of sponge cities by 2030. Greening plants play an important role in sponge cities, and water-use efficiency (WUE) is a vital index to determine whether plants could adapt to and grow healthily in environments with water deficits. In this study, WUE of greening plants was quantified by measuring the stable carbon isotope fractionation. Suitable plants for the green spaces in Guyuan sponge city, in northern China, were selected based on their WUE, and the main factors affecting WUE were studied in four habitats within the city. Plant species identity had the greatest effect on WUE, while habitat and plant life form had lower effect, illustrating that WUE is a relatively stable and reliable index for the classification of plant species. We can improve the WUE and ecological function of green spaces in sponge cities by using isotope technology to select suitable plant species with high WUE. To our knowledge, this study is the first to select plant species for sponge city by using this method, providing a quick and scientific method for the selection of greening plants for future sponge cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat’s emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4– based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500–4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre–to post–4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To study the relationship between the glazed pottery from southern China and the lead-glazed pottery in northern China in the Han Dynasty (202BC-220AD), 34 samples unearthed from Shangyu(上虞), Zhejiang Province have been studied by LA-ICP-AES, SEM/EDS and XRD. The results showed that these samples included the typical lead-glazed pottery, the proto-porcelain and the glazed pottery using both lead and calcium as glaze fluxing agents. Previously, the lead-glazed pottery type was considered as the main northern products during the Han dynasty while the calcium-glazed pottery type or the proto-porcelain was the representative of the south of China. However, apart from the two typical types above, a new variety of glaze categorized as the calcium-lead glaze was discovered in the samples from Shangyu. This indicates that there were technology exchanges and amalgamation of lead-glaze and calcium-glaze between the south and the north during the Han Dynasty. As a result, a new type of glazed potteries with both features was created, which had a more beautiful appearance than the proto-porcelain but perhaps had some undesirable aspects. The manufacturing process of the new variety might also lay foundations for the invention of celadon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil pH is a key factor that controls soil nutrient availability, soil microbial activities, and crop growth and development. However, studies on the soil pH variations of cultivated lands in different horizons at the regional scale remain limited. In this work, 348 soil samples were collected from three soil horizons (A, B, and C) at 120 sites over the hilly region of Chongqing, southwestern China. Six topographic indicators, four climate parameters, and parent material were considered. Classification and regression trees (CARTs) were applied to investigate the relationships between soil pH and the variables in the A, B, and C horizons. Model performances were evaluated by root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). Results showed that soil pH increased obviously from the A to C horizons. Soil pH was predicted well by the forcing factors with the CART models in all horizons. RMSE, RRMSE, and R2 varied between 0.37 and 0.435, between 5.93 and 7.23%, and between 0.71 and 0.80, respectively. The relative importance of the studied variables to soil pH differed with the horizons. Annual temperature range (ATR), terrain wetness index (TWI), and Melton ruggedness number were critical factors that controlled soil pH variability in the A horizon. Parent material, precipitation of warmest quarter (PWQ), ATR, and TWI were important variables in the B horizon. Parent material, PWQ, ATR, and precipitation were key factors in the C horizon. The results are expected to provide valuable information for designing appropriate measurements for agricultural practices and preventing soil acidification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately predicting reference evapotranspiration (ET0) with limited climatic data is crucial for irrigation scheduling design and agricultural water management. This study evaluated eight machine learning models in four categories, i.e. neuron-based (MLP, GRNN and ANFIS), kernel-based (SVM, KNEA), tree-based (M5Tree, XGBoost) and curve-based (MARS) models, for predicting daily ET0 with maximum/maximum temperature and precipitation data during 2001–2015 from 14 stations in various climatic regions of China, i.e., arid desert of northwest China (NWC), semi-arid steppe of Inner Mongolia (IM), Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), (semi-)humid cold-temperate northeast China (NEC), semi-humid warm-temperate north China (NC), humid subtropical central China (CC) and humid tropical south China (SC). The results showed machine learning models using only temperature data obtained satisfactory daily ET0 estimates (on average R2 = 0.829, RMSE = 0.718 mm day−1, NRMSE = 0.250 and MAE = 0.508 mm day−1). The prediction accuracy was improved by 7.6% across China when information of precipitation was further considered, particularly in (sub)tropical humid regions (by 9.7% in CC and 12.4% in SC). The kernel-based SVM, KNEA and curve-based MARS models generally outperformed the others in terms of prediction accuracy, with the best performance by KNEA in NWC and IM, by SVM in QTP, CC and SC, and very similar performance by them in NEC and NC. SVM (1.9%), MLP (2.0%), MARS (2.6%) and KNEA (6.4%) showed relatively small average increases in RMSE during testing compared with training RMSE. SVM is highly recommended for predicting daily ET0 across China in light of best accuracy and stability, while KNEA and MARS are also promising powerful models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air pollution is well-known as a major risk to public health, causing various diseases including pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases. As social concern increases, the amount of air pollution data is increasing rapidly. The purpose of this study is to statistically characterize dependence between major cities in China based on a measure of directional dependence estimated from PM2.5 measurements. As a measure of the directional dependence, we propose the so-called copula directional dependence (CDD) using beta regression models. An advantage of the CDD is that it does not rely on strict assumptions of specific probability distributions or linearity. We used hourly PM2.5 measurement data collected at four major cities in China: Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, and Shanghai, from 2013 to 2017. After accounting for autocorrelation in the PM2.5 time series via nonlinear autoregressive models, CDDs between the four cities were estimated to produce directed network structures of statistical dependence. In addition, a statistical method was proposed to test the directionality of dependence between each pair of cities. From the PM2.5 data, we could discover that Chengdu and Guangzhou are the most closely related cities and that the directionality between them has changed once during 2013 to 2017, which implies a major economic or environmental change in these Chinese regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have focused on the interactive effects of temperature increases due to global warming and nutrient enrichment on phytoplankton communities. Recently, non-temperature effects of climate change (e.g., decreases in wind speed and increases in solar radiation) on large lakes have received increasing attention. To evaluate the relative contributions of both temperature and non-temperature effects on phytoplankton communities in a large eutrophic subtropical shallow lake, we analyzed long-term monitoring data from Lake Taihu, China from 1997 to 2016. Results showed that Lake Taihu’s spring phytoplankton biovolume and composition changed dramatically over this time frame, with a change in dominant species. Stepwise multiple linear regression models indicated that spring phytoplankton biovolume was strongly influenced by total phosphorus (TP), light condition, wind speed and total nitrogen (TN) (radj2 = 0.8, p < 0.01). Partial redundancy analysis (pRDA) showed that light condition accounted for the greatest variation of phytoplankton community composition, followed by TP and wind speed, as well as the interactions between TP and wind speed. Our study points to the additional importance of non-temperature effects of climate change on phytoplankton community dynamics in Lake Taihu. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil respiration is the second largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux; the responses of soil respiration to nitrogen (N) deposition have far-reaching influences on the global C cycle. N deposition has been documented to significantly affect soil respiration, but the results are conflicting. The response of soil respiration to N deposition gradients remains unclear, especially in ecosystems receiving increasing ambient N depositions. A field experiment was conducted in a natural evergreen broadleaf forest in western China from November 2013 to November 2015 to understand the effects of increasing N deposition on soil respiration. Four levels of N deposition were investigated: control (Ctr, without N added), low N (L, 50 kg N ha−1·a−1), medium N (M, 150 kg N ha−1·a−1), and high N (H, 300 kg N ha−1·a−1). The results show that (1) the mean soil respiration rates in the L, M, and H treatments were 9.13%, 15.8% (P < 0.05) and 22.57% (P < 0.05) lower than that in the Ctr treatment (1.56 ± 0.13 μmol·m−2·s−1), respectively; (2) soil respiration rates showed significant positive exponential and linear relationships with soil temperature and moisture (P < 0.01), respectively. Soil temperature is more important than soil moisture in controlling the soil respiration rate; (3) the Ctr, L, M, and H treatments yielded Q10 values of 2.98, 2.78, 2.65, and 2.63, respectively. N deposition decreased the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration; (4) simulated N deposition also significantly decreased the microbial biomass C and N, fine root biomass, pH and extractable dissolved organic C (P < 0.05). Overall, the results suggest that soil respiration declines in response to N deposition. The decrease in soil respiration caused by simulated N deposition may occur through decreasing the microbial biomass C and N, fine root biomass, pH and extractable dissolved organic C. Ongoing N deposition may have significant impacts on C cycles and increase C sequestration with the increase in global temperature in evergreen broadleaf forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the variations in crop climatic suitability and planting regionalization can provide scientific evidence for ensuring food security under climate change. In this study, variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for the potato in northern China were investigated based on daily data from 1965 to 2014 collected at 321 agro-meteorological observation stations located throughout the region. Northern China was divided into three areas, including Northwest China, North China and Northeast China. The agricultural climatic suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method were applied. The potato growth seasons were divided into threestages:from sowing to emergence, from emergence to flowering and from flowering to maturity. The comprehensive climatic suitabilityindex (C), which varied from 0 to 1, was established to evaluate the effects of climate change on potato planting. The results showed that, from 1965 to 2014, the C value in the study area increased 0.002 every ten years over the past 50 years with an average of 0.706, benefitting potato growth in the vast area of northern China. Nonetheless, precipitation was found to be the main climatic factor restricting potato growth in northern China. For spatial distribution, the C value showed a gradually declining trend from east to west, decreasing westward and southward over the past 50 years. For the growth season, the C value varied during different potato growth stages over the past 50 years. The C value increased during the sowing-emergence stage and decreased during the emergence-flowering stage and the flowering-maturity stage. The decreased C during the later growth stages would directly affect the quality and yield of the potato, mainly because the flowering-maturity stage was associated with potato tuber enlargement and starch accumulation. Variations in potato planting regionalization in northern China over the past 50 years were evident. Climate change was more beneficial to potato cultivation in northeast China where the highly suitable areas had clearly expanded. However, potato cultivation was most negatively affected in northwest China where the middle suitable areas had receded. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought and vegetation conditions within the Damqu River Basin, part of the Yangtze River Source Region (YRSR), are assessed here using the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the leaf area index (LAI). We utilized Sen’s method, least squares regression method, linear regression and Pearson’s correlation analysis to study variations in drought and vegetation indices and the drought effect on vegetation between 1988 and 2015. Results reveal that droughts occurred at a 25% frequency over this period; SPI and SPEI analyses show that 1994, 1999, 2005, and 2010 were change points and that the basin was characterized by varying drought and humidity trends. Subsequent to 2010, both SPI and SPEI decreased within the basin, while 1995, 2000, 2004, and 2010 were change points for NDVI and LAI while the watershed exhibited variable trends in vegetation reduction and increase. The NDVI-annual values of 63.36% regions and the LAI-summer values of 68.39% areas within the basin were decreased during 1988–2015 and 2000–2015, respectively. Subsequent to 2010, both NDVI and LAI decreased within the basin and significant positive correlations at inter-annual and inter-summer time scales were seen in both drought and vegetation indices; drought has exerted a lag effect on vegetation as shown by significant positive correlations between annual SPI/SPEI values and following year NDVI/LAI values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building communities’ resilience to natural weather hazards requires the appropriate assessment of such capabilities. The resilience of a community is affected not only by social, economic, and infrastructural factors but also by natural factors (including both site characteristics and the intensity and frequency of events). To date, studies of natural factors have tended to draw on annual censuses and to use aggregated data, thus allowing only a limited understanding of site-specific hot or cold spots of resilience. To improve this situation, we carried out a comprehensive assessment of resilience to typhoon disasters in Nansha district, Guangzhou, China. We measured disaster resilience on 1×1-km grid units with respect to socioeconomic and infrastructural dimensions using a set of variables and also estimated natural factors in a detailed manner with a meteorological modeling tool, the Weather Research and Forecast model. We selected typhoon samples over the past 10 years, simulated the maximum typhoon-borne strong winds and precipitation of each sample, and predicted the wind speed and precipitation volume at the 100-year return-level on the basis of extreme value analysis. As a result, a composite resilience index was devised by combining factors in different domains using factor analysis coupled with the analytic hierarchy process. Resilience mapping using this composite resilience index allows local governments and planners to identify potential hot or cold spots of resilience and the dominant factors in particular locations, thereby assisting them in making more rational site-specific measures to improve local resilience to future typhoon disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Method: Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. Result: The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. Conclusion: The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are concerns that the reported association of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) with mortality might be a mixture of PM2.5 and weather conditions. We evaluated the effects of extreme weather conditions and weather types on mortality as well as their interactions with PM2.5 concentrations in a time series study. Daily non-accidental deaths, individual demographic information, daily average PM2.5 concentrations and meteorological data between 2012 and 2014 were obtained from Shanghai, China. Days with extreme weather conditions were identified. Six synoptic weather types (SWTs) were generated. The generalized additive model was set up to link the mortality with PM2.5 and weather conditions. Parameter estimation was based on Bayesian methods using both the Jeffreys’ prior and an informative normal prior in a sensitivity analysis. We estimate the percent increase in non-accidental mortality per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration and constructed corresponding 95% credible interval (CrI). In total, 336,379 non-accidental deaths occurred during the study period. Average daily deaths were 307. The results indicated that per 10 μg/m3 increase in daily average PM2.5 concentration alone corresponded to 0.26–0.35% increase in daily non-accidental mortality in Shanghai. Statistically significant positive associations between PM2.5 and mortality were found for favorable SWTs when considering the interaction between PM2.5 and SWTs. The greatest effect was found in hot dry SWT (percent increase = 1.28, 95% CrI: 0.72, 1.83), followed by warm humid SWT (percent increase = 0.64, 95% CrI: 0.15, 1.13). The effect of PM2.5 on non-accidental mortality differed under specific extreme weather conditions and SWTs. Environmental policies and actions should take into account the interrelationship between the two hazardous exposures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield per unit area from 1970 to 2014 in Henan, the largest agricultural province in China, using an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The bounded F-test for cointegration among the model variables yielded evidence of a long-run relationship among climate change, technical progress, and the wheat yield per unit area. In the long run, agricultural machinery and fertilizer use both had significantly positive impacts on the per unit area wheat yield. A 1% increase in the aggregate quantity of fertilizer use increased the wheat yield by 0.19%. Additionally, a 1% increase in machine use increased the wheat yield by 0.21%. In contrast, precipitation during the wheat growth period (from emergence to maturity, consisting of the period from last October to June) led to a decrease in the wheat yield per unit area. In the short run, the coefficient of the aggregate quantity of fertilizer used was negative. Land size had a significantly positive impact on the per unit area wheat yield in the short run. There was no significant short-run or long-run impact of temperature on the wheat yield per unit area in Henan Province. The results of our analysis suggest that climate change had a weak impact on the wheat yield, while technical progress played an important role in increasing the wheat yield per unit area. The results of this study have implications for national and local agriculture policies under climate change. To design well-targeted agriculture adaptation policies for the future and to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on the wheat yield, climate change and technical progress factors should be considered simultaneously. In addition, adaptive measures associated with technical progress should be given more attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pterygium is a common chronic ophthalmic condition, which may result in significant visual morbidity or lead to blindness in extreme cases. The prevalence of pterygium in China has not been reported at the sub-national level. Methods: In this study, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the prevalence of pterygium in China. China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang, Chinese Biomedicine Literature Database (CBM-SinoMed), PubMed, Embase and Medline were searched before September 2016. We performed a multilevel mixed-effect meta-regression based on the included studies, our results showed that age, gender and latitude were significantly associated with pterygium prevalence. Based on the final model, the age and gender-specific prevalence of pterygium in 31 Chinese provinces (except Hongkong, Macau and Taiwan) and the whole country was generated. Results: In 2010, the overall prevalence of pterygium in Chinese people aged 15–84 years was 9.84% (95% CI: 6.72–14.14), and the number of pterygium cases in China was 108.65 million (95% CI: 74.23–156.13). Conclusions: In conclusion, the prevalence of pterygium in Chinese population in 2010 was estimated at both the national and provincial levels. The higher burden of pterygium across the country calls for efforts to advocate public health education encouraging people to take appropriate protective measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, Haze is one of the greatest environmental problems with serious impacts on human health in China, especially in capital region (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region). To alleviate this problem, the Chinese government introduced a National Air Pollution Control Action Plan (NAPCAP) with air pollutants reduction targets by 2017. However, there is doubt whether these targets can be achieved once the plan is implemented. In this work, the effectiveness of NAPCAP is analyzed by developing models of the statistical relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and air pollutant emissions (SO2, NOx, smoke and dust), while taking into account wind and neighboring transfer impacts. The model can also identify ways of calculating the intended emission levels in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area. The results indicate that haze concentration control targets will not be attained by following the NAPCAP, and that the amount of progress needed to meet the targets is unrealistic. A more appropriate approach to reducing air emissions is proposed, which addresses joint regional efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990–2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The success of a biological invasion relies on the environment and is closely linked to factors such as water and temperature. Invasive plant species display different seed characteristics, including shape. Field sandbur (Cenchrus pauciflorus) is a globally widespread invasive species capable of adapting to broad environmental conditions. However, its germination response to water and temperature still remains unclear. C. pauciflorus contains two seeds in the same bur that differ in size: big seeds (M) and small seeds (P). Separate greenhouse experiments were conducted under different temperature regimes (0/10°C, 5/15°C, 10/20°C, 15/25°C, 18/28°C, 20/30°C and 25/35°C) and water potentials (-1.50Mpa, -1.00Mpa, -0.75Mpa, -0.50Mpa, -0.25Mpa and 0Mpa) for M and P seeds. The results support the hypothesis that germination of C. pauciflorus is significantly influenced by seed type, temperature and water potential. M and P seeds responded differently to varied alternative temperatures and water potentials. However, M and P seeds were more sensitive to water potential than to temperature. Optimal conditions for M and P seed germination were measured at 25/35°C (night temperature/day temperature) and 20/30°C, respectively. In contrast, the highest germination rate was observed for the 0Mpa of the water potential treatment. Additionally, base temperature (Tbase) and base water potential (Wbase) were lower for M (7.7°C, -1.11Mpa at 10/20°C, and -1.07Mpa at 20/30°C) than for P (9.4°C, -0.92Mpa at 10/20°C, and -0.52Mpa at 20/30°C). These different germination strategies of M and P seeds with respect to temperature and water potential increased overall plant propagation. These results indicate that tropical and subtropical regions water potentials beyond -0.50Mpa (10/20°C) or -1.00Mpa (20/30°C) face a potential risk of C. pauciflorus invasion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monocropped rice system is an important intensive cropping system for food security in China. Green manure (GM) as an alternative to fertilizer N (FN) is useful for improving soil quality. However, few studies have examined the effect of Chinese milk vetch (CMV) as GM on nitrous oxide (N2O) emission from monocropped rice field in south China. Therefore, a pot-culture experiment with four treatments (control, no FN and CMV; CMV as GM alone, M; fertilizer N alone, FN; integrating fertilizer N with CMV, NM) was performed to investigate the effect of incorporating CMV as GM on N2O emission using a closed chamber-gas chromatography (GC) technique during the rice growing periods. Under the same N rate, incorporating CMV as GM (the treatments of M and NM) mitigated N2O emission during the growing periods of rice plant, reduced the NO3- content and activities of nitrate and nitrite reductase as well as the population of nitrifying bacteria in top soil at maturity stage of rice plant versus FN pots. The global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) of N2O from monocropped rice field was ranked as M4+ content, which were dramatically decreased in the M pots, over the treatment of FN. Hence, it can be concluded that integrating FN with CMV as GM is a feasible tactic for food security and N2O mitigation in the monocropped rice based system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air and soil pollution from mining activities has been considered as a critical issue to the health of living organisms. However, few efforts have been made in distinguishing the main pathway of organism genetic damage by heavy metals related to mining activities. Therefore, we investigated the genetic damage of Leymus chinensis leaf cells, the air particulate matter (PM) contents, and concentrations of the main heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Cr, Hg) in soil and foliar dust samples collected from seven experiment points at the core mining area and one control point 20 kilometers away from the core mining area in Inner Mongolia in 2013. Comet assay was used to test the genetic damage of the Leymus chinensis leaf cells; the Tail DNA% and Tail Moment were used to characterize the genetic damage degree of the plant cells. The comet assay results showed that the cell genetic damage ratio was up to 77.0% in experiment points but was only 35.0% in control point. The control point also had the slight Tail DNA% and Tail Moment values than other experiment groups. The cell damage degree of the control group was 0.935 and experiment groups were 1.299–1.815. The geo-accumulation index and comperehensive pollution index(CPI) were used to characterize heavy metal pollution in foliar dust samples, and single factor pollution index and CPI were used to characterize the heavy metal pollution in soil samples. The CPIfoliar dust of control group was 0.36 and experiment groups were 1.45–2.57; the CPIsoil of control group was 0.04 and experiment groups were 0.07–0.12. The results of correlation analyze showed that Air Quality Index (AQI) -CPIfoliar dust(r = 0.955**)>Damage degree-CPIfoliar dust(r = 0.923**)>Damage degree-AQI(r = 0.908**)>Damage degree-CPIsoil (r = 0.824*). The present research proved that mining activity had a high level of positive correlation with organism genetic damage caused by heavy metals through comparing with the control point; soil and atmosphere were both the important action pathway for heavy metal induced genetic damage in mining area. Furthermore, heavy metal contents in foliar dust showed a higher positive correlation with genetic damage than when compared with soil. This means the heavy metal contents that L.chinensis absorbed through respiration from the atmosphere could make more serious genetic damage than when absorbed by root systems from soil in the mining area. This study can provide theoretical support for research on plant genetic damage mechanisms and exposure pathways induced by environmental pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exact prediction of Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) epidemics must improve to establish effective preventive measures in China. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied to establish a highly predictive model of HFRS. Meteorological factors were considered external variables through a cross correlation analysis. Then, these factors were included in the SARIMA model to determine if they could improve the predictive ability of HFRS epidemics in the region. The optimal univariate SARIMA model was identified as (0,0,2)(1,1,1)12. The R2 of the prediction of HFRS cases from January 2014 to December 2014 was 0.857, and the Root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.708. However, the inclusion of meteorological variables as external regressors did not significantly improve the SARIMA model. This result is likely because seasonal variations in meteorological variables were included in the seasonal characteristics of the HFRS itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and purpose: The data concerning the association between environmental pollution and epilepsy attacks are limited. The aim of this study was to explore the association between acute air pollution exposure and epilepsy attack. Methods: A hospital record-based study was carried out in Xi’an, a heavily-polluted metropolis in China. Daily baseline data were obtained. Time-series Poisson regression models were applied to analyze the association between air pollution and epilepsy. Results: A 10 μg/m3 increase of NO2, SO2, and O3 concentrations corresponded to 3.17% (95%Cl: 1.41%, 4.93%), 3.55% (95%Cl: 1.93%, 5.18%), and -0.84% (95%Cl: -1.58%, 0.09%) increase in outpatient-visits for epilepsy on the concurrent days, which were significantly influenced by sex and age. The effects of NO2 and SO2 would be stronger when adjusted for PM2.5. As for O3, a -1.14% (95%Cl: -1.90%, -0.39%) decrease was evidenced when adjusted for NO2. The lag models showed that the most significant effects were evidenced on concurrent days. Conclusions: We discovered previously undocumented relationships between short-term air pollution exposure and epilepsy: while NO2 and SO2 were positively associated with outpatient-visits of epilepsy, O3 might be associated with reduced risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Widespread afforestation programs sequester carbon from the atmosphere and mitigate the rising of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Meanwhile, afforestation carbon sequestration may cost soil water. However, changes in soil moisture content (SMC) after large-scale afforestation or reforestation have rarely been quantified. In this study, we measured changes in SMC following afforestation using a paired plots method with data from 757 plots in Northeastern China. We found a marginally significant decline in soil moisture content of the top 1-m soil (SMC0-1m) after afforestation (P = 0.08) at the regional scale. The SMC responses to afforestation also vary across species. For example, significant SMC decrease are found for Populus spp. plantations (P < 0.05) and plantations of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica (P < 0.05). Splitting the first meter of the soil profile into different depth intervals revealed that SMC declined significantly in shallow layers (0–30 cm) for Populus spp. and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica. We also found that when SMC in the control exceeded a specific threshold, SMC for all five tree species considered tended to decrease, suggesting that the effects of afforestation on soil hydrology vary across different regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emergent rock outcrops are common in terrestrial ecosystems. However, little research has been conducted regarding their surface function in redistributing organic carbon and nutrient fluxes to soils nearby. Water that fell on and ran off 10 individual rock outcrops was collected in three 100 × 100 m plots within a rock desertification ecosystem, an anthropogenic forest ecosystem, and a secondary forest ecosystem between June 2013 and June 2014 in Shilin, SW China. The concentrations of total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (N), total phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) in the water samples were determined during three seasons, and the total amounts received by and flowing out from the outcrops were calculated. In all three ecosystems, TOC and N, P, and K were found throughout the year in both the water received by and delivered to nearby soil patches. Their concentrations and amounts were generally greater in forested ecosystems than in the rock desertification ecosystem. When rock outcrops constituted a high percentage (≥ 30%) of the ground surface, the annual export of rock outcrop runoff contributed a large amount of organic carbon and N, P, and K nutrients to soil patches nearby by comparison to the amount soil patches received via atmospheric deposition. These contributions may increase the spatial heterogeneity of soil fertility within patches, as rock outcrops of different sizes, morphologies, and emergence ratios may surround each soil patch. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve a better understanding of Holocene climate change in the monsoon regions of China, we investigated the molecular distributions and carbon and hydrogen isotope compositions (δ13C and δD values) of long-chain n-alkanes in a peat core from the Shiwangutian (SWGT) peatland, south China over the last 9 ka. By comparisons with other climate records, we found that the δ13C values of the long-chain n-alkanes can be a proxy for humidity, while the δD values of the long-chain n-alkanes primarily recorded the moisture source δD signal during 9–1.8 ka BP and responded to the dry climate during 1.8–0.3 ka BP. Together with the average chain length (ACL) and the carbon preference index (CPI) data, the climate evolution over last 9 ka in the SWGT peatland can be divided into three stages. During the first stage (9–5 ka BP), the δ13C values were depleted and CPI and Paq values were low, while ACL values were high. They reveal a period of warm and wet climate, which is regarded as the Holocene optimum. The second stage (5–1.8 ka BP) witnessed a shift to relatively cool and dry climate, as indicated by the more positive δ13C values and lower ACL values. During the third stage (1.8–0.3 ka BP), the δ13C, δD, CPI and Paq values showed marked increase and ACL values varied greatly, implying an abrupt change to cold and dry conditions. This climate pattern corresponds to the broad decline in Asian monsoon intensity through the latter part of the Holocene. Our results do not support a later Holocene optimum in south China as suggested by previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sanjiang Plain has been experienced significant wetland loss due to expanded agricultural activities, and will be potentially restored by the China National Wetland Conservation Action Plan (NWCP) in future. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of future climate warming and wetland restoration on wetland CH4 emissions in northeast China. We used an atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2) to drive a modified biogeophysical model (CH4MODwetland), and projected CH4 flux variations from the Sanjiang Plain wetlands under different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios throughout the 21st century. Model validation showed that the regressions between the observed and simulated CH4 fluxes by the modified model produced an R2 of 0.49 with a slope of 0.87 (p<0.001, n = 237). According to the AVIM2 simulation, the net primary productivity of the Sanjiang Plain wetlands will increase by 38.2 g m-2 yr-1, 116.6 g m-2 yr-1 and 250.4 g m-2 yr-1 under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by the end of this century. For RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the CH4 fluxes will increase by 5.7 g m-2 yr-1, 57.5 g m-2 yr-1 and 112.2 g m-2 yr-1. Combined with the wetland restoration, the regional emissions will increase by 0.18‒1.52 Tg. The CH4 emissions will be stimulated by climate change and wetland restoration. Regional wetland restoration planning should be directed against different climate scenarios in order to suppress methane emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a remarkable 86% increase in cereal production from 1980 to 2005, recent crop yield growth in China has been slow. County level crop production data between 1980 and 2010 from eastern and middle China were used to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of rice, wheat and maize yield in five major farming systems that include around 90% of China's cereal production. Site-specific yield trends were assessed in areas where those crops have experienced increasing yield or where yields have stagnated or declined. We find that rice yields have continued to increase on over 12.3 million hectares (m. ha) or 41.8% of the rice area in China between 1980 and 2010. However, yields stagnated on 50% of the rice area (around 14.7 m. ha) over this time period. Wheat yields increased on 13.8 m. ha (58.2% of the total harvest area), but stagnated on around 3.8 m. ha (15.8% of the harvest area). Yields increased on a smaller proportion of the maize area (17.7% of harvest area, 5.3 m. ha), while yields have stagnated on over 54% (16.3 m. ha). Many parts of the lowland rice and upland intensive sub-tropical farming systems were more prone to stagnation with rice, the upland intensive sub-tropical system with wheat, and maize in the temperate mixed system. Large areas where wheat yield continues to rise were found in the lowland rice and temperate mixed systems. Land and water constraints, climate variability, and other environmental limitations undermine increased crop yield and agricultural productivity in these systems and threaten future food security. Technology and policy innovations must be implemented to promote crop yields and the sustainable use of agricultural resources to maintain food security in China. In many production regions it is possible to better match the crop with input resources to raise crop yields and benefits. Investments may be especially useful to intensify production in areas where yields continue to improve. For example, increased support to maize production in southern China, where yields are still rising, seems justified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong wind and heavy rain remain the two most important causes of large acreage wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) lodging in China. For research the influence of wind speed and rainfall—separately as well as together—on the extent and degree of lodging, five levels of the severity of lodging were defined based on a combination of the lodging area and the degree of tilting. Detailed meteorological information was studied on 52 instances of large-scale lodging that occurred from 2007 to 2014. The results showed that strong wind’s lodging accounted for 8% of the instances studied, continuous rainfall’s lodging accounted for 19% and strong winds-heavy rainfall’s accounted for 73%. The minimum instantaneous wind speed that could cause large-scale lodging was closely related to rainfall. Without rainfall, the wind speed that resulted in lodging ranging in severity from slight to severe (Level 2 to Level 5) was 14.9 m/s, 19.3 m/s, 21.5 m/s, and 26.5 m/s, respectively; when accompanied by rainfall, the wind speed that resulted in lodging of the same severity decreased linearly with the increase of rainfall. These results will be particularly useful in preventing and alleviating wheat lodging as well screening wheat varieties with good lodging resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on two chloroplast DNA sequences, psbA-trnH and trnT-trnF, phylogeographical patterns of a desert shrub, Ephedra przewalskii, were examined across most of its geographic range in northwestern China. A total of sixteen haplotypes were detected. There was a common haplotype in each basin, that was haplotype A in Tarim Basin, haplotype G in Junggar Basin, and haplotype M in Qaidam Basin. Genetic variance mainly occurred among populations, geographic regions, and eleven geographic groups subdivided by SAMOVA analysis. E. przewalskii likely had a smaller and more fragmented geographic range during the Last Glacial Maximum, which was determined based on ecological niche modelling. Three groups of E. przewalskii populations were detected to have experience range expansion, and this was based on significant values of Fu’s FS, Tajima’s D, and unimodel mismatch distributions. The cold and dry climate during the glacial period of the Quaternary is postulated to have been a driver for significant genetic isolation and divergence among populations or groups in E. przewalskii, whereas the warmer and wetter climate during the interglacial period is speculated to have provided favourable conditions for range expansion of the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial ecosystems greatly contribute to carbon (C) emission reduction targets through photosynthetic C uptake.Net primary production (NPP) represents the amount of atmospheric C fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. The Three-North Shelterbelt Program (TNSP) zone accounts for more than 40% of China’s landmass. This zone has been the scene of several large-scale ecological restoration efforts since the late 1990s, and has witnessed significant changes in climate and human activities.Assessing the relative roles of different causal factors on NPP variability in TNSP zone is very important for establishing reasonable local policies to realize the emission reduction targets for central government. In this study, we examined the relative roles of drought and land cover conversion(LCC) on inter-annual changes of TNSP zone for 2001–2010. We applied integrated correlation and decomposition analyses to a Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and MODIS land cover dataset. Our results show that the 10-year average NPP within this region was about 420 Tg C. We found that about 60% of total annual NPP over the study area was significantly correlated with SPEI (p<0.05). The LCC-NPP relationship, which is especially evident for forests in the south-central area, indicates that ecological programs have a positive impact on C sequestration in the TNSP zone. Decomposition analysis generally indicated that the contributions of LCC, drought, and other Natural or Anthropogenic activities (ONA) to changes in NPP generally had a consistent distribution pattern for consecutive years. Drought and ONA contributed about 74% and 23% to the total changes in NPP, respectively, and the remaining 3% was attributed to LCC. Our results highlight the importance of rainfall supply on NPP variability in the TNSP zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early Cenozoic was characterized by a very warm climate especially during the Early Eocene. To understand climatic changes in eastern Asia, we reconstructed the Early Eocene vegetation and climate based on palynological data of a borehole from Wutu coal mine, East China and evaluated the climatic differences between eastern Asia and Central Europe. The Wutu palynological assemblages indicated a warm temperate vegetation succession comprising mixed needle- and broad-leaved forests. Three periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. The changes of palynomorph relative abundance indicated that period 1 was warm and humid, period 2 was relatively warmer and wetter, and period 3 was cooler and drier again. The climatic parameters estimated by the coexistence approach (CA) suggested that the Early Eocene climate in Wutu was warmer and wetter. Mean annual temperature (MAT) was approximately 16°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was 800–1400 mm. Comparison of the Early Eocene climatic parameters of Wutu with those of 39 other fossil floras of different age in East China, reveals that 1) the climate became gradually cooler during the last 65 million years, with MAT dropping by 9.3°C. This cooling trend coincided with the ocean temperature changes but with weaker amplitude; 2) the Early Eocene climate was cooler in East China than in Central Europe; 3) the cooling trend in East China (MAT dropped by 6.9°C) was gentler than in Central Europe (MAT dropped by 13°C) during the last 45 million years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past decade, developing countries have been experiencing rapid land use and land cover changes, including deforestation and cultivation of previously forested land. However, little is known about the impact of deforestation and land-use changes on the life history of malaria vectors and their effects on malaria transmission. This study examined the effects of deforestation and crop cultivation on the adult survivorship of major malaria mosquitoes, Anopheles sinensis and An. minimus in the China-Myanmar border region. We examined three conditions: indoor, forested, and banana plantation. Mean survival time of An. sinensis in banana plantation environment was significantly longer than those in forested environment, and mosquitoes exhibited the longest longevity in the indoor environment. This pattern held for both males and females, and also for An. minimus. To further test the effect of temperature on mosquito survival, we used two study sites with different elevation and ambient temperatures. Significantly higher survivorship of both species was found in sites with lower elevation and higher ambient temperature. Increased vector survival in the deforested area could have an important impact on malaria transmission in Southeast Asia. Understanding how deforestation impacts vector survivorship can help combat malaria transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Anthrax, a global re-emerging zoonotic disease in recent years is enzootic in mainland China. Despite its significance to the public health, spatiotemporal distributions of the disease in human and livestock and its potential driving factors remain poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using the national surveillance data of human and livestock anthrax from 2005 to 2013, we conducted a retrospective epidemiological study and risk assessment of anthrax in mainland China. The potential determinants for the temporal and spatial distributions of human anthrax were also explored. We found that the majority of human anthrax cases were located in six provinces in western and northeastern China, and five clustering areas with higher incidences were identified. The disease mostly peaked in July or August, and males aged 30–49 years had higher incidence than other subgroups. Monthly incidence of human anthrax was positively correlated with monthly average temperature, relative humidity and monthly accumulative rainfall with lags of 0–2 months. A boosted regression trees (BRT) model at the county level reveals that densities of cattle, sheep and human, coverage of meadow, coverage of typical grassland, elevation, coverage of topsoil with pH > 6.1, concentration of organic carbon in topsoil, and the meteorological factors have contributed substantially to the spatial distribution of the disease. The model-predicted probability of occurrence of human cases in mainland China was mapped at the county level. Conclusions/Significance: Anthrax in China was characterized by significant seasonality and spatial clustering. The spatial distribution of human anthrax was largely driven by livestock husbandry, human density, land cover, elevation, topsoil features and climate. Enhanced surveillance and intervention for livestock and human anthrax in the high-risk regions, particularly on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, is the key to the prevention of human infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Loess Plateau, soil erosion has not only caused serious ecological and environmental problems but has also impacted downstream areas. Therefore, a model is needed to guide the comprehensive control of soil erosion. In this study, we introduced the WEPP model to simulate soil erosion both at the slope and watershed scales. Our analyses showed that: the simulated values at the slope scale were very close to the measured. However, both the runoff and soil erosion simulated values at the watershed scale were higher than the measured. At the slope scale, under different coverage, the simulated erosion was slightly higher than the measured. When the coverage is 40%, the simulated results of both runoff and erosion are the best. At the watershed scale, the actual annual runoff of the Liudaogou watershed is 83m3; sediment content is 0.097 t/m3, annual erosion sediment 8.057t and erosion intensity 0.288 t ha-1 yr-1. Both the simulated values of soil erosion and runoff are higher than the measured, especially the runoff. But the simulated erosion trend is relatively accurate after the farmland is returned to grassland. We concluded that the WEPP model can be used to establish a reasonable vegetation restoration model and guide the vegetation restoration of the Loess Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In China, Zou Zhe (Memorials to the Throne, or Palace Memorials), an official communication to the emperors of China by local officials, offers an opportunity to reconstruct the spatial-temporal distributions of droughts at a high-resolution. A 223-year, 1689–1911, time series of drought events was reconstructed in this study based on 2494 pieces of Zou Zhe. The results show that: 1) on the temporal scale, the drought affected areas, i.e., number of affected counties, showed three peak periods during the last 223 years and nine extreme drought years with more than 300 counties affected have been identified; 2) on the spatial scale, there existed three drought-prone areas in China, i.e., Gansu province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in Northwest China, Shandong, Hebei, and Henan provinces and Tianjin in the North China, and Anhui and Jiangsu provinces in Jianghuai area, respectively; 3) the drought-prone areas have been expanding from North China to South China since the second half of 19th century; 4) on the seasonal scale, summer witnessed the largest number of drought events. Meanwhile, the uncertainties of the results were also discussed, i.e. what caused the spatial-temporal distribution of drought. The results of this study can be used to mitigate the adverse effects of extreme weather events on food increasing and stable production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil respiration, a major component of the global carbon cycle, is significantly influenced by land management practices. Grasslands are potentially a major sink for carbon, but can also be a source. Here, we investigated the potential effect of land management (grazing, clipping, and ungrazed enclosures) on soil respiration in the semiarid grassland of northern China. Our results showed the mean soil respiration was significantly higher under enclosures (2.17μmol.m−2.s−1) and clipping (2.06μmol.m−2.s−1) than under grazing (1.65μmol.m−2.s−1) over the three growing seasons. The high rates of soil respiration under enclosure and clipping were associated with the higher belowground net primary productivity (BNPP). Our analyses indicated that soil respiration was primarily related to BNPP under grazing, to soil water content under clipping. Using structural equation models, we found that soil water content, aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and BNPP regulated soil respiration, with soil water content as the predominant factor. Our findings highlight that management-induced changes in abiotic (soil temperature and soil water content) and biotic (ANPP and BNPP) factors regulate soil respiration in the semiarid temperate grassland of northern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. Methods: The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008–2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. Results: The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse “V” shape and “V” shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. Conclusion: We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic variables spatial heterogeneity distributed across provinces. Future research should explore the risk factors that cause spatial correlated structure or high variation of HFMD incidence which can be explained by temperature. When analyzing association between HFMD incidence and climatic variables, spatial heterogeneity among provinces should be evaluated. Moreover, the extra-Poisson multilevel model was capable of modeling the association between overdispersion of HFMD incidence and climatic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]