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Fear of anthropogenic "global warming" can adversely affect patients' well-being. Accordingly, the state of the scientific consensus about climate change was studied by a review of the 539 papers on "global climate change" found on the Web of Science database from January 2004 to mid-February 2007, updating research by Oreskes, who had reported that between 1993 and 2003 none of 928 scientific papers on "global climate change" had rejected the consensus that more than half of the warming of the past 50 years was likely to have been anthropogenic. In the present review, 31 papers (6% of the sample) explicitly or implicitly reject the consensus. Though Oreskes said that 75% of the papers in her former sample endorsed the consensus, fewer than half now endorse it. Only 7% do so explicitly. Only one paper refers to "catastrophic" climate change, but without offering evidence. There appears to be little evidence in the learned journals to justify the climate-change alarm that now harms patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phase shift between changes in the global surface temperature Tg and atmospheric CO2 content has been shown earlier not to characterize causal relationships in the Earth system in the general case. Specifically, the sign of this phase shift under nongreenhouse radiative forcing changes depends on the time scale of this forcing. This paper analyzes the phase shift between changes in the global surface temperature Tg and the atmospheric CO2 content under synchronous external emissions of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere on the basis of numerical experiments with the IAP RAS climatic model and a conceptual climate model with carbon cycle. For a sufficiently large time scale of external forcing, the changes in lag relative to the corresponding changes in Tg. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2000 a panel of the U.S. National Research Council in a report with the same title suggested, among other things, that a "substantial disparity remains" between the observed warming rates of the surface and troposphere. Also, in 2000, the climate models showed more warming of the tropical atmosphere than was observed. Many papers have been written since then. We discuss the most recent papers on this subject and using the latest data show that the differences remain unresolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose — In 2007, the issues of global and climate change in particular, have become major issues in the social psyche. With the United Nations declaring 2008 the "International Year of Planet Earth", this; paper aims to look at four recent reports and comments on how the reports aim to deal with the climate and global change challenges ahead. Design/methodology/approach — After a brief introduction to the subject, this paper looks at each of the four reports in turn. It describes the methodology of each report and then discusses its relative strengths and weaknesses. This is followed by a conclusion on the reports as a whole and where policy makers can make improvements. Findings — All four reports are well structured and they have certainly raised the profile and illustrated the importance of global and climate change. However, there are a number of ways each could and should be improved in future updates. Practical implications — This paper aims to bring the reports to a wider audience and make recommendations on improvements to future reports on these important global issues. Originality/value — The paper evaluates four recent reports on the important social issues of global, change and climate change. By comparing and contrasting the reports, the paper gives an overview 01 what some of the larger policy makers are doing to tackle global and climate change. The paper also makes recommendations for improvements to the reports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical glaciers are extremely sensitive to a warming climate. In this paper, the evolution of the remaining tropical glaciers in Australasia (Irian Jaya, Indonesia) during the period 1988-2015 was quantified. Landsat series images, a digital elevation model from SRTM, and previously published data were used. Estimated total glacier area in 1988, 1993, 1997 and 2004 was 3.85 km2±0.13 km2, 3.01 km2±0.08 km2, 2.49 km2±0.07 km2 and 1.725 km2 ±0.042 km2, respectively. Only 0.58 km2±0.016 km2 glacierized area remained in 2015 in Puncak Jaya, which is about 84.9% loss in just 27 years. If this rate continued, the remaining tropical glaciers in Australasia would disappear in the 2020s. Timeseries analysis of climate variables showed significant positive trends in air temperature (0.009°C per year) and relative humidity (0.43% per year) but no considerable tendency was observed for precipitation. Warming climate together with mining activities would accelerate loss of glacier coverage in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological and oceanographic data from ships of opportunity are the largest contributor to the world’s ocean surface database and thus are extensively used to estimate the change in climatic properties over the world’s oceans during the previous 150 years. The importance of these data for climate change studies underscores the need to fully understand the error associated with averages of these data. The sampling error problem is especially acute for ship data due to the fact that ships are moving platforms and, thus, report observations from constantly varying locations with time. This paper develops a theoretical framework for assessing the averaged sampling error associated with monthly, 1°×1° latitude-longitude box averaged ship data. It should be noted that the time-space distribution of ships within the averaging domain strongly affects the sampling error. This is shown in our derivation. The framework developed here can be used to improve upon existing methods for estimating the sampling error associated with three-dimensional box averages of meteorological and oceanographic data obtained from ship records. The framework is complimentary to existing methods of assessing biases and random error due to instrumentation, recording, etc. It is demonstrated mathematically that the uncertainty due to incomplete sampling is primarily a trade off between of the number of observations and their relative locations within the box as well as the inherent time-space correlation structure of the variable of interest. This work differs from other studies in that the three-dimensional interdependence of data is taken into account in deriving an expression for the sampling error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Interpretation of changes of global temperature is important for our understanding of the climate system and for our confidence in projections for the future. Massive efforts have been devoted to improve the accuracy of reproducing the global temperature by the available climate models, but the hindcasts are still inaccurate. Notwithstanding the need to further advance climate models, one may consider data-driven approaches, providing practically useful results in a simpler and faster way. Without assuming any prior knowledge about physics and without imposing a model structure that encapsulates the existing knowledge about the underlying processes, we hindcast global temperature by automatically identified evolutionary computation models. We use 60 years of records of global temperature and climate drivers, with training and testing periods being 1950-1999 and 2000-2009, respectively. This paper demonstrates that the global temperature observed in the past is mimicked with reasonably good accuracy. Evolutionary computation holds promise for modeling the global climate system, which looks hopelessly complex in classical perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the effects of vegetation cover and soil parameters on the climate change projections of a regional climate model over the Arctic domain. Different setups of the land surface model of the regional climate model HIRHAM were realized to analyze differences in the atmospheric circulation caused by (1) the incorporation of freezing/thawing of soil moisture, (2) the consideration of top organic soil horizons typical for the Arctic and (3) a vegetation shift due to a changing climate. The largest direct thermal effect in 2 m air temperature was found for the vegetation shift, which ranged between −1.5 K and 3 K. The inclusion of a freeze/thaw scheme for soil moisture shows equally large sensitivities in spring over cool areas with high soil moisture content. Although the sensitivity signal in 2 m air temperature for the experiments differs in amplitude, all experiments show changes in mean sea level pressure (mslp) and geopotential height (z) throughout the troposphere of similar magnitude (mslp: −2 hPa to 1.5 hPa, z: −15 gpm to 5 gpm). This points to the importance of dynamical feedbacks within the atmosphere-land system. Land and soil processes have a distinct remote influence on large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in addition to their direct, regional effects. The assessment of induced uncertainties due to the changed implementations of land surface processes discussed in this study demonstrates the need to take all those processes for future Arctic climate projections into account, and demonstrates a clear need to include similar implementations in regional and global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a new approach, based on a mixed model procedure, to quantify the tree-ring-based growth-climate relationship of trembling aspen along a latitudinal gradient from 46 to 54 °N in eastern Canada. This approach allows breaking down the growth response into general intersite and local climatic responses, and analyzing variations of absolute ring width as well as interannual variations in tree growth. The final model also integrates nonclimatic variables such as soil characteristics and the occurrence of insect outbreaks into the growth predictions. Tree level random effects on growth were important as intercepts but were nonsignificant for the climatic variables, indicating that a single climate–growth relationship was justified in our case. The response of tree growth to climate showed, however, a strong dependence on the spatial scale at which the analysis was performed. Intersite variations in tree growth were mostly dependent on variations in the thermal heat sum, a variable that showed low interannual and high intersite variation. When variation for a single site was analyzed, other variables showed up to be important while the heat sum was unimportant. Finally, future growth under six different climate change scenarios was simulated in order to study the potential impact of climate change. Results suggest only moderate growth increases in the northern portion of the gradient and a growth decrease in the southern portion under future climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper traces the history of the use of ships' logbooks in climatological studies from the earliest days of the 17th century to the present day. Although early theories concerning global air circulations by Halley and Hadley were based on information gathered by mariners and recorded in their logbooks, it has only been in the last two decades that interest has returned to this important, but long-overlooked, source of climatic information. Attention is drawn to the many advantages offered by logbooks, in particular the long period of time that they collectively cover, their near-global geographic range, the large number of such documents that have survived, and the degree of detailed and reliable record that they provide. Before the mid-19th century, much of the recorded information is noninstrumental in character but its scientific potential is reflected in the variety of approaches and methods that have been used in its analysis and in the equally wide range of outcomes, from databases to synoptic charts and long-time series indices that have emerged from the most recent research. Attention is also drawn to the benefits to be derived from old and more recent instrumental logbook data. As only a small percentage of the tens of thousands of logbooks that have been preserved have thus far been examined, the potential for yet further development is enormous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainties in observed records of atmospheric temperature aloft remain poorly quantified. This has resulted in considerable controversy regarding signals of climate change over recent decades from temperature records of radiosondes and satellites. This work revisits the problems associated with the removal of inhomogeneities from the historical radiosonde temperature records, and provides a method for quantifying uncertainty in an adjusted radiosonde climate record due to the subjective choices made during the data homogenization. This paper presents an automated homogenization method designed to replicate the decisions made by manual judgment in the generation of an earlier radiosonde dataset [i.e., the Hadley Centre radiosonde temperature dataset (HadAT)]. A number of validation experiments have been conducted to test the system performance and impact on linear trends. Using climate model data to simulate biased radiosonde data, the authors show that limitations in the homogenization method are sufficiently large to explain much of the tropical trend discrepancy between HadAT and estimates from satellite platforms and climate models. This situation arises from the combination of systematic (unknown magnitude) and random uncertainties (of order 0.05 K decade-1) in the radiosonde data. Previous assessment of trends and uncertainty in HadAT is likely to have underestimated the systematic bias in tropical mean temperature trends. This objective assessment of radiosonde homogenization supports the conclusions of the synthesis report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), and associated research, regarding potential bias in tropospheric temperature records from radiosondes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess the impacts of future climatic change, we need a better understanding of the relationships between debris flows dynamic and the climate. The subject of this paper is the variability in the response of debris flows to climatic change in recent decades in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps). The climatic trend observed in the French Alps was characterized by analyzing data on extreme summer rainfall events recorded daily at nine stations located all over the Massif des Ecrins since 1960. According to the generalized Pareto law (GPD) our results showed that extreme summer rainfalls have increased significantly in the Massif des Ecrins since the 1980s. Statistical tests showed a significant increase in average annual air temperature. The response of 647 hill slope debris flows to this climatic change was investigated. Different types of hill slope debris flows were analyzed as a function of their lithology or the nature of the accumulated debris. A number of logistic regression based models were developed to characterize the relationship between climate and the occurrence of debris flows in a specific geomorphological context. Analysis of frequency and return period over the last two decades showed different patterns depending on the type of debris flow concerned. Hence, the response of hill slope debris flows to climatic change is not the same everywhere in the Massif des Ecrins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The detection and attribution of climate change in the observed record play a central role in synthesizing knowledge of the climate system. Unfortunately, the traditional method for detecting and attributing changes due to multiple forcings requires large numbers of general circulation model (GCM) simulations incorporating different initial conditions and forcing scenarios, and these have only been performed with a small number of GCMs. This paper presents an extension to the fingerprinting technique that permits the inclusion of GCMs in the multisignal analysis of surface temperature even when the required families of ensembles have not been generated. This is achieved by fitting a series of energy balance models (EBMs) to the GCM output in order to estimate the temporal response patterns to the various forcings. This methodology is applied to the very large Challenge ensemble of 62 simulations of historical climate conducted with the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 1.4 (CCSM1.4) GCM, as well as some simulations from other GCMs. Considerable uncertainty exists in the estimates of the parameters in fitted EBMs. Nevertheless, temporal response patterns from these EBMs are more reliable and the combined EBM time series closely mimics the GCM in the context of transient forcing. In particular, detection and attribution results from this technique appear self-consistent and consistent with results from other methods provided that all major forcings are included in the analysis. Using this technique on the Challenge ensemble, the estimated responses to changes in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosols, and stratospheric volcanic aerosols are all detected in the observed record, and the responses to the greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols are both consistent with the observed record without a scaling of the amplitude being required. The result is that the temperature difference of the 1996–2005 decade relative to the 1940–49 decade can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions, with a partially offsetting cooling from sulfate emissions and little contribution from natural sources. The results support the viability of the new methodology as an extension to current analysis tools for the detection and attribution of climate change, which will allow the inclusion of many more GCMs. Shortcomings remain, however, and so it should not be considered a replacement to traditional techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an update on the detection and attribution of global annual mean surface air temperature changes, using recently developed climate models. In particular, it applies a new methodology that permits the inclusion of many more general circulation models (GCMs) into the analysis, and it also includes more recent observations. This methodology involves fitting a series of energy balance models (EBMs) to the GCM output in order to estimate the temporal response patterns to the various forcings. Despite considerable spread in estimated EBM parameters, characteristics of model performance, such as the transient climate response, appear to be more constrained for each of the forcings. The resulting estimated response patterns are provided as input to the standard fingerprinting method used in previous studies. The estimated GCM responses to changes in greenhouse gases are detected in the observed record for all of the GCMs, and are generally found to be consistent with the observed changes; the same is generally true for the responses to changes in stratospheric aerosols from volcanic eruptions. GCM responses to changes in tropospheric sulfate aerosols and solar irradiance also appear consistent with the observed record, although the uncertainty is larger. Greenhouse gas and solar irradiance changes are found to have contributed to a best guess of ∼0.8 and ∼0.3 K warming over the 1901–2005 period, respectively, while sulfate aerosols have contributed a ∼0.4 K cooling. This analysis provides an observationally constrained estimate of future warming, which is found to be fairly robust across GCMs. By 2100, a warming of between about 1.5 and 4.5 K can be expected according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. These results indicate an emerging constraint for global mean surface temperature responses to external forcings across GCMs, which is corroborated in the observed record. This implies that observationally constrained estimates of past warming and predictions of future warming are indeed becoming robust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the role that horizontal resolution plays in the simulation of East Asia precipitation. Two sets of numerical experiments are performed using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM2) nested in one-way mode within the CSIRO global coupled atmosphere-ocean model. In the first set we use the actual RegCM2 topography at the selected model resolutions, which are 45, 60, 90, 120, 180, 240 and 360 km. In the second set of the experiments, the same coarse CSIRO model topography is used in all simulations using the different resolutions of the first set. The results demonstrate that the simulation of East Asian precipitation improves as the horizontal resolution is increased. Moreover, it is shown that the simulations using a higher resolution along with the coarse CSIRO topography perform better than the simulations using a coarser model resolution with corresponding model topography. This suggests that over East Asia adequate spatial resolution to resolve the physical and dynamical processes is more important than topography. Lastly, the results indicate that model resolutions of 60 km or higher are needed to accurately simulate the distribution of precipitation over China and East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have shown that ice duration in lakes and rivers over the Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the 19th and 20th centuries in response to global warming. However, lake ice trends have not been well documented in Canada. Because of its size, considerable variability may exist in both freeze‐up and break‐up dates across the country. In this paper, results of the analysis of recent trends (1951–2000) in freeze‐up and break‐up dates across Canada are presented. Trends toward earlier break‐up dates are observed for most lakes during the time periods of analysis which encompass the 1990s. Freeze‐up dates, on the other hand, show few significant trends and a low degree of temporal coherence when compared with break‐up dates. These results are compared with trends in autumn and spring 0 °C isotherm dates over the time period 1966–95. Similar spatial and temporal patterns are observed, with generally significant trends toward earlier springs/break‐up dates over most of western Canada and little change in isotherm and freeze‐up dates over the majority of the country in autumn. Strong correlations (r > 0·5) between 0 °C isotherm dates and freeze‐up/break‐up dates at many locations across the country reveal the high synchrony of these variables. These results are also consistent with more recent observations of other cryospheric and atmospheric variables that indicate, in particular, a general trend toward earlier springs in the latter part of the 20th century. The results of this study provide further evidence of the robustness of lake ice as a proxy indicator of climate variability and change. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative importance of the processes responsible for the annual cycle in the upper-ocean heat content in the Peru Current, in the southeastern tropical Pacific, was diagnosed from an oceanic analysis dataset. It was found that the annual cycle of heat content is forced mainly by insolation. However, the ocean dynamical processes play an important role in producing different regional budget characteristics. In a band 500 km from the coast of Peru, the annual heat content changes in this region are relatively large and can be approximated as sea surface temperature (SST) changes in a fixed-depth mixed layer. The annual cycle of the albedo associated with low-level clouds enhances the annual cycle in insolation, which explains the relatively strong annual cycle of heat content. These clouds, to a large extent, act as a feedback to SST, but a small additional forcing, which is proposed to be cold air advection in this paper, is needed to explain the fact that the maximum cloudiness leads the lowest SST by around a month. Ocean dynamics is important closer to the coast, where upwelling acts partly as damping of the heat content changes and forces it to peak earlier than farther offshore. In a band farther to the southwest, locally wind-forced thermocline motions, which become shallower (deeper) in the warm (cool) season, partially cancel the effect of net surface heat fluxes, whose annual cycle is comparable to that in the region previously mentioned, producing a relatively small annual cycle of heat content. The local forcing appears to be associated with the annual meridional displacements of the South Pacific anticyclone. The annual cycle in SST is also relatively small, which is probably due to the changes in the temperature of the water entrained into the mixed layer associated with the thermocline motions, but also to a mixed layer deeper than that closer to the coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a statistical method to assess CMIP6 simulations of large-scale surface temperature change during the historical period (1850–2014), considering all time scales, allowing for the different unforced variability of each model and the observations, observational uncertainty, and variable ensemble size. The generality of this method, and the fact that it incorporates information about the unforced variability, makes it a useful model assessment tool. We apply this method to the historical simulations of the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. We use three indices that measure different aspects of large-scale surface air temperature change: global mean, hemispheric gradient, and a recently developed index that captures the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the tropics (SST#; see Fueglistaler and Silvers). We use the following observations: HadCRUT5 for the first two indices, and AMIPII and ERSSTv5 for SST#. In each case, we test the hypothesis that the model's forced response is compatible with the observations, accounting for unforced variability in both models and observations as well as measurement uncertainty. This hypothesis is accepted more often (75% of the models) for the hemispheric gradient than for the global mean, for which half of the models fail the test. The tropical SST pattern is poorly simulated in all models. Given that the tropical SST pattern can strongly modulate the relationship between energy imbalance and global-mean surface temperature anomalies on annual to decadal time scales (short-term feedback parameter), we suggest this should be a focus area for future improvements due to its potential implications for the global-mean temperature evolution in decadal time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma) is one of our best geological analogs for understanding climate dynamics in a “greenhouse” world. However, proxy data representing the event are only available from select marine and terrestrial sedimentary sequences that are unevenly distributed across Earth’s surface, limiting our view of the spatial patterns of climate change. Here, we use paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) to combine climate model and proxy information and create a spatially complete reconstruction of the PETM and the climate state that precedes it (“PETM-DA”). Our data-constrained results support strong polar amplification, which in the absence of an extensive cryosphere, is related to temperature feedbacks and loss of seasonal snow on land. The response of the hydrological cycle to PETM warming consists of a narrowing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, off-equatorial drying, and an intensification of seasonal monsoons and winter storm tracks. Many of these features are also seen in simulations of future climate change under increasing anthropogenic emissions. Since the PETM-DA yields a spatially complete estimate of surface air temperature, it yields a rigorous estimate of global mean temperature change (5.6 °C; 5.4 °C to 5.9 °C, 95% CI) that can be used to calculate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). We find that PETM ECS was 6.5 °C (5.7 °C to 7.4 ∘C, 95% CI), which is much higher than the present-day range. This supports the view that climate sensitivity increases substantially when greenhouse gas concentrations are high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses climate change and hurricanes. Papers that appeared in the scholarly journals "Nature" and "Science" during the summer of 2005 raised the question of global warming being the cause of the record-breaking hurricane season of 2005. The article examines that argument, noting that many scientists believe that human-induced climate warming is indeed real. Also discussed is the increasing intensity of hurricanes since 1975, as well as the rise in seas surface temperatures and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The article provides information on the adaptation issue discussed during the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It mentions the impact of the abrupt climatic change to the human beings as well as the general biodiversity and cites that climate change has been considered as one of the major problems faced by most of the countries across the planet. Meanwhile, it aims to investigate on the efforts of the European Union for the creation of the climate change policy. Furthermore, the significance of biodiversity conservation and preservation are also highlighted.

The natural resources of the Okavango Delta, a large wetland in semi-arid Botswana, form the basis of livelihoods of the local population and support economically important high-end tourism. The hydro-ecological system is dynamic at various time scales, responding to climate variability, and both flood and drought conditions have in the past put pressure on the system's users. Human-induced climate change can potentially exacerbate the effects of existing climate variability. In this paper, we present simulated future hydro-ecological conditions in the Okavango Delta generated by a step-wise modelling procedure. The outputs of three different global climate models are used to drive a suite of hydrological models. Lastly, a rule-based dynamic model relates hydroperiod conditions to vegetation assemblages. The simulated future conditions vary from much drier to much wetter than those recorded in the past. Models indicate that climatic change would result in change in both extent and distribution of the major ecotopes of the Okavango Delta. Importantly, the different ecotopes will be affected to varying degrees. The projected changes will have consequences for the wildlife-based management of the system. They will affect, for example, available grazing and migration/movement patterns of large herbivores, as well as fish. Such consequences can have rapid up-trophic level effects, ultimately leading to potentially substantial impacts on the economy. The main conclusion to be drawn is that management planning and land-use systems should be as flexible as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new publication by NOAA (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) claims to have removed the previously evident discrepancies between mean global temperature anomalies measured on the surface and those measured in the lower troposphere. It claims that a combination of attention to inaccuracies and the use of linear regression equations on selected climate sequences have removed these discrepancies. This paper shows that these claims are untrue. The apparent agreement of the two sets of records for the chosen sequences is dependent on the enhanced influence of volcanoes and El Niño events in the lower troposphere, compared with an additional warming factor on the surface. If a temperature sequence comparatively free from these influences, (1979 -1997) is chosen, there is no significant warming in the lower atmosphere for six of the seven records, and for the seventh, no significant warming between 1988 and 1997; whereas warming still prevails on the surface over these periods. The supposed enhanced greenhouse effect is thus currently undetectable in the lower atmosphere, where it is supposed to be most prominent, for extended periods, so the warming on the surface over these periods must have some other cause. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate response to idealized changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by the new GFDL climate model (CM2) is documented. This new model is very different from earlier GFDL models in its parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes, numerical algorithms, and resolution. The model was constructed to be useful for both seasonal-to-interannual predictions and climate change research. Unlike previous versions of the global coupled GFDL climate models, CM2 does not use flux adjustments to maintain a stable control climate. Results from two model versions, Climate Model versions 2.0 (CM2.0) and 2.1 (CM2.1), are presented. Two atmosphere–mixed layer ocean or slab models, Slab Model versions 2.0 (SM2.0) and 2.1 (SM2.1), are constructed corresponding to CM2.0 and CM2.1. Using the SM2 models to estimate the climate sensitivity, it is found that the equilibrium globally averaged surface air temperature increases 2.9 (SM2.0) and 3.4 K (SM2.1) for a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. When forced by a 1% per year CO2 increase, the surface air temperature difference around the time of CO2 doubling [transient climate response (TCR)] is about 1.6 K for both coupled model versions (CM2.0 and CM2.1). The simulated warming is near the median of the responses documented for the climate models used in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I Third Assessment Report (TAR). The thermohaline circulation (THC) weakened in response to increasing atmospheric CO2. By the time of CO2 doubling, the weakening in CM2.1 is larger than that found in CM2.0: 7 and 4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s-1), respectively. However, the THC in the control integration of CM2.1 is stronger than in CM2.0, so that the percentage change in the THC between the two versions is more similar. The average THC change for the models presented in the TAR is about 3 or 4 Sv; however, the range across the model results is very large, varying from a slight increase (+2 Sv) to a large decrease (-10 Sv). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast to the Northern Hemisphere, relatively little is known about the influence of climate, in particular climate change, on the timing of bird migration in Australia. This paper examines a new dataset, comprising daily abundance records for 8 landbird species at Lyre Bird Observatory (EBO), Western Australia, for the period 1984 to 2003. Five of the 8 species were present at Lyre for only part of the year, while the 3 species present all year round exhibited seasonal changes in abundance. For most species, changes in migration dates were related to observed changes in the regional climate; 3 species showed no trend in migration timing, and these had no regular period of absence from EBO. Of the remaining species, the Purple-crowned Lorikeet Glossopsitta porphyrocephala and Grey Fantail Rhipidura fuliginosa showed strong trends in arrival dates: both winter visitors arrived suddenly at EBO and earlier over time, with lorikeets arriving earlier in years of warmer night-time temperatures. Two species, Fork-tailed Swift Apus pacificus and Rainbow Bee-eater Merops ornatus, had strong trends in departure dates and were summer visitors, These species responded differently to warming night-time temperatures, perhaps reflecting their breeding characteristics. The Budgerigar Melopsittacus undulatus arrived and departed suddenly and showed no trend in migration timing, though wetter years corresponded to earlier arrivals. Consistent with global trends, this region warmed, particularly in minimum temperatures (0.05°C yr-1). There was no trend in rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the research on ocean circulation in a warming climate. Accordingly, findings show that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) had stronger winds which fit to the common observation that it is windier in the winter than in the summer because there is greater thermal contrast within the atmosphere in the winter hemisphere. Moreover, the paper cited several observations that predict that oceans' circulation will weaken in response to global warming, but the warming at the end of the last ice age suggests a different outcome. However, by studying these observations, it is clear that large circulation changes took place and it seems unlikely that circulation changes of this magnitude could have happened without substantial changes in the wind forcing.

Solar geoengineering that aims to offset global warming could nonetheless alter atmospheric temperature gradients and humidity and thus affect the extratropical storm tracks. Here, we first analyze climate model simulations from experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which a reduction in incoming solar radiation balances a quadrupling of CO2. The Northern Hemisphere extratropical storm track weakens by a comparable amount in G1 as it does for increased CO2 only. The Southern Hemisphere storm track also weakens in G1, in contrast to a strengthening and poleward shift for increased CO2. Using mean available potential energy, we show that the changes in zonal‐mean temperature and humidity are sufficient to explain the different responses of storm‐track intensity. We also demonstrate similar weakening in a more complex geoengineering scenario. Our results offer insight into how geoengineering affects storm tracks, highlighting the potential for geoengineering to induce novel climate changes. Plain Language Summary: Solar geoengineering refers to reflecting incoming sunlight to counteract the greenhouse effect of increased carbon dioxide concentrations and is one proposed intervention to avoid the most dramatic risks of global warming. Climate under solar geoengineering would nonetheless be meaningfully different from a baseline climate without increased carbon dioxide. The extratropical storm tracks, regions with heightened incidence of extratropical cyclones, are important components of weather and climate outside of the tropics. In simulations with global climate models, we find that the storm track in the Northern Hemisphere is similarly weakened in a solar geoengineering scenario with little change in global mean temperature as in a global warming scenario. The storm track in the Southern Hemisphere also weakens in the geoengineering scenario in contrast to a strengthening with global warming. The weakening of the storm tracks in the geoengineering scenario is partly related to a weakening of the pole‐to‐equator temperature gradient in both hemispheres. This means that reflecting incoming sunlight may not prevent changes in the strength of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and may overcorrect in the Southern Hemisphere. Key Points: Northern Hemisphere extratropical storm track weakens in response to increased CO2 even with the use of solar geoengineeringSouthern Hemisphere extratropical storm track also weakens in a solar geoengineering scenario but strengthens under global warmingStorm‐track intensity changes in all cases are related to changes in mean temperature structure and moisture [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming projections show an anomalous temperature increase both at the Arctic surface and at lower latitudes in the upper troposphere. The Arctic amplification decreases the meridional temperature gradient, and simultaneously decreases static stability. These changes in the meridional temperature gradient and in the static stability have opposing effects on baroclinicity. The temperature increase at the upper tropospheric lower latitudes tends to increase the meridional temperature gradient and simultaneously increase static stability, which have opposing effects on baroclinicity as well. In this study, a dry idealized general circulation model with a modified Newtonian cooling scheme, which allows any chosen zonally symmetric temperature distribution to be simulated, is used to study the effect of Arctic amplification and lower-latitude upper-level warming on eddy activity. Due to the interplay between the static stability and meridional temperature gradient on atmospheric baroclinicity changes, and their opposing effect on atmospheric baroclinicity, it is found that both the Arctic amplification and lower-latitude upper-level warming could potentially lead to both decreases and increases in eddy activity, depending on the exact prescribed temperature modifications. Therefore, to understand the effect of global warming–like temperature trends on eddy activity, the zonally symmetric global warming temperature projections from state-of-the-art models are simulated. It is found that the eddy kinetic energy changes are dominated by the lower-latitude upper-level warming, which tends to weaken the eddy kinetic energy due to increased static stability. On the other hand, the eddy heat flux changes are dominated by the Arctic amplification, which tends to weaken the eddy heat flux at the lower levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of atmospheric circulation on temperature variability and trends in Finland in 1979–2018 is studied using a trajectory-based method. On the average 81% of the detrended interannual variance of monthly mean temperatures is explained by the start points of the three-dimensional trajectories, with the best performance in autumn and winter. Atmospheric circulation change is only found to have had a small impact on the observed annual mean temperature trends, but it has considerably modified the trends in individual months. In particular, changes in circulation explain the lack of observed warming in June, the very modest warming in October in southern Finland, and about a half of the very large warming in December. The residual trends obtained by subtracting the circulation-related change from observations are robustly positive in all months of the year, exhibit a smoother seasonal cycle, and agree better with the multi-model mean temperature trends from models in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Nevertheless, some differences between the residual trends and the average CMIP5 trends are also found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports that according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global warming threatens many bird species with extinction due to climatic changes and the loss of the habitats they depend on for survival. The analysis by the IPCC also found that an important way to mitigate the impacts of global warming is to protect existing forest and grassland and wetland habitats, which store carbon and provide essential habitat for imperiled wildlife. Information about the action taken by the government to reduce greenhouse emissions is presented.

Despite decades of research, large multi-model uncertainty remains about the Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide forcing as inferred from state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs). Statistical treatments of multi-model uncertainties are often limited to simple ESM averaging approaches. Sometimes models are weighted by how well they reproduce historical climate observations. Here, we propose a novel approach to multi-model combination and uncertainty quantification. Rather than averaging a discrete set of models, our approach samples from a continuous distribution over a reduced space of simple model parameters. We fit the free parameters of a reduced-order climate model to the output of each member of the multi-model ensemble. The reduced-order parameter estimates are then combined using a hierarchical Bayesian statistical model. The result is a multi-model distribution of reduced-model parameters, including climate sensitivity. In effect, the multi-model uncertainty problem within an ensemble of ESMs is converted to a parametric uncertainty problem within a reduced model. The multi-model distribution can then be updated with observational data, combining two independent lines of evidence. We apply this approach to 24 model simulations of global surface temperature and net top-of-atmosphere radiation response to abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide, and four historical temperature data sets. Our reduced order model is a 2-layer energy balance model. We present probability distributions of climate sensitivity based on (1) the multi-model ensemble alone and (2) the multi-model ensemble and observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of actions by non-state and sub-national actors (e.g., companies and cities) is increasingly recognized, because current governmental commitments are insufficient to limit the increase of global temperatures to 1.5 °C. Orchestration, the alignment between ‘orchestrator’ (e.g., international organizations and governments) and ‘intermediaries’ (e.g., city networks and partnerships), could harness additional contributions by building catalytic linkages and by enabling a growing number of actions. Although most orchestration efforts have been made in the context of international climate negotiations, regional and national orchestration could be useful by contributing to the implementation of national commitments, and by inspiring greater ambition. We investigate whether and how regional and national orchestrators respond to shortfalls in international orchestration. Using insights from a comparative study, we provide an early indication of the catalytic potential of orchestration in Latin America, Europe, India, Argentina, and Sweden. We find considerable impacts of global level orchestration on the emergence of these initiatives, however orchestrators do not simply copy other efforts; they emphasize different catalytic linkages, including the engagement of underrepresented actors; implementation; and, the provision of ideational and material support. Catalytic linkages in a complex landscape with multiple orchestrators could sometimes be improved through coordination. Given the enormous scale of transformation needed, a focus on scale may seem natural. However, for socially just outcomes, orchestrators need to resist a sole focus on scale, and also aim at experimental and small-scale actions, which may not lead to immediate large-scale impacts but which may prove crucial in longer-term transformations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Oltenia, Studii si Comunicari Seria Stiintele Naturii is the property of Museum of Oltenia Craiova and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Identifying the air temperature frequency distributions and evaluating the trends in time-varying percentiles are very important for climate change studies. In order to get a better understanding of the recent temporal and spatial pattern of the temperature changes in China, we have calculated the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature firstly. Then we divide all the stations to get the spatial patterns for the percentile trends using the average linkage cluster analysis method. To make a comparison, the shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 are also examined. Important results in three aspects have been achieved: (1) In terms of the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature, the most intense warming for daily maximum air temperature (T) was detected in the upper percentiles with a significant increasing tendency magnitude (>2.5 °C/50), and the greatest warming for daily minimum air temperature (T) occurred with very strong trends exceeding 4 °C/50. (2) The relative coherent spatial patterns for the percentile trends were found, and stations for the whole country had been divided into three clusters. The three primary clusters were distributed regularly to some extent from north to south, indicating the possible large influence of the latitude. (3) The most significant shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 was found in T. More than half part of the frequency distribution show negative trends less than −0.5 °C/50 in 1961-1985, while showing trends less than 2.5 °C/50 in 1986-2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing global temperatures during the last century have had their own effects on other climatic conditions, particularly on precipitation characteristics. This study was meant to investigate the spatial and temporal monthly trends of precipitation using the least square error (LSE) approach for the northwest of Iran (NWI). To this end, a database was obtained from 250 measuring stations uniformly scattered all over NWI from 1961 to 2010. The spatial average of annual precipitation in NWI during the period of study was approximately 220.9-726.7 mm. The annual precipitation decreased from southwest to northeast, while the large amount of precipitation was concentrated in the south-west and in the mountainous areas. All over NWI, the maximum and minimum precipitation records occurred from March to May and July to September, respectively. The coefficient of variation (CV) is greater than 44 % in all of NWI and may reach over 76 % in many places. The greatest range of CV, for instance, occurred during July. The spatial variability of precipitation was consistent with a tempo-spatial pattern of precipitation trends. There was a considerable difference between the amounts of change during the months, and the negative trends were mainly attributed to areas concentrated in eastern and southern parts of NWI far from the western mountain ranges. Moreover, limited areas with positive precipitation trends can be found in very small and isolated regions. This is observable particularly in the eastern half of NWI, which is mostly located far from Westerlies. On the other hand, seasonal precipitation trends indicated a slight decrease during winter and spring and a slight increase during summer and autumn. Consequently, there were major changes in average precipitation that occurred negatively in the area under study during the observation period. This finding is in agreement with those findings by recent studies which revealed a decreasing trend of around 2 mm/year over NWI during 1966-2005. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing human impacts on climate and biodiversity requires an understanding of the relationship between the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth's atmosphere and global temperature (T). Here I explore this relationship empirically using comprehensive, recently-compiled databases of stable-isotope proxies from the Phanerozoic Eon (~540 to 0 years before the present) and through complementary modeling using the atmospheric absorption/transmittance code MODTRAN. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is correlated weakly but negatively with linearly-detrended T proxies over the last 425 million years. Of 68 correlation coefficients (half non-parametric) between CO2 and T proxies encompassing all known major Phanerozoic climate transitions, 77.9% are non-discernible (p > 0.05) and 60.0% of discernible correlations are negative. Marginal radiative forcing (ΔRFCO2), the change in forcing at the top of the troposphere associated with a unit increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, was computed using MODTRAN. The correlation between ΔRFCO2 and linearly-detrended T across the Phanerozoic Eon is positive and discernible, but only 2.6% of variance in T is attributable to variance in ΔRFCO2. Of 68 correlation coefficients (half non-parametric) between ΔRFCO2 and T proxies encompassing all known major Phanerozoic climate transitions, 75.0% are non-discernible and 41.2% of discernible correlations are negative. Spectral analysis, autoand cross-correlation show that proxies for T, atmospheric CO2 concentration and ΔRFCO2 oscillate across the Phanerozoic, and cycles of CO2 and ΔRFCO2 are antiphasic. A prominent 15 million-year CO2 cycle coincides closely with identified mass extinctions of the past, suggesting a pressing need for research on the relationship between CO2, biodiversity extinction, and related carbon policies. This study demonstrates that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration did not cause temperature change in the ancient climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in temperature extreme events are expected as a result of anthropogenic climate change, but uncertainties exist in when and how these changes will be manifest regionally. This is especially the case over Europe due to different methodologies and definitions of temperature extreme events. An alternative approach is to examine changes in record-breaking temperatures. Datasets of observed temperature combined with ensembles of climate model simulations are used to assess the possible causes and significance of record-breaking temperature changes over the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries. A simple detection methodology is first applied to evaluate the extent to which the effect of anthropogenic forcing can be detected in present-day observed and simulated changes in record-breaking temperature. We then study the projected evolution of record-breaking daily minimum and maximum temperatures over the twenty-first century in Europe with a climate model. The same detection approach is used to identify the time of emergence of the anthropogenic signal relative to a model-derived estimate of internal variability. From the 1980s onwards, a change in the evolution of cold and warm records is observed and simulated, but it still remains in the range of internal variability until the end of the twentieth century. Minimum and maximum record-breaking temperatures tend to occur (respectively) less and more often than during the 1960s and 1970s taken as representative of a stationary climate. Model simulations with natural forcing only fail to reproduce the observed changes after the 1980s while the latter are compatible with simulations constrained by anthropogenic forcings. The deviation from the characteristic behavior of a stationary climate record-wise initiated in the 1980s is projected to accentuate during the twenty-first century. Annual changes become inconsistent with the model-derived internal variability between the 2020s and 2030s. Over the last three decades of the twenty-first century and under the RCP8.5 scenario, warm records occur on average five times more often than initially. Conversely, breaking new cold record become extremely difficult. The Mediterranean region is particularly affected in summer, whereas central and northeastern Europe is more impacted in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The comprehensive general circulation model ECHAM6 is used in a radiative-convective equilibrium configuration. It is coupled to a perfectly conducting slab. To understand the local impact of thermodynamic surface properties on the land-ocean warming contrast, the surface latent heat flux and surface heat capacity are reduced stepwise, aiming for a land-like climate. Both ocean-like and land-like RCE simulation reproduce the tropical atmosphere over ocean and land in a satisfactory manner and lead to reasonable land-ocean warming ratios. A small surface heat capacity induces a high diurnal surface temperature range which triggers precipitation during the day and decouples the free troposphere from the diurnal mean temperature. With increasing evaporation resistance, the net atmospheric cooling rate decreases because cloud base height rises, causing a reduction of precipitation. Climate sensitivity depends more on changes in evaporation resistance than on changes in surface heat capacity. A feedback analysis with the partial radiation perturbation method shows that amplified warming over idealized land can be associated with disproportional changes in the lapse rate versus the water vapor feedback. Cloud feedbacks, convective aggregation, and changes in global mean surface temperature confuse the picture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been developed in the last two decades in order to produce high-resolution climate information by downscaling Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) simulations or analyses of observed data. A crucial evaluation of RCMs worth is given by the assessment of the value added compared to the driving data. This evaluation is usually very complex due to the manifold circumstances that can preclude a fair assessment. In order to circumvent these issues, here we limit ourselves to estimating the potential of RCMs to add value over coarse-resolution data. We do this by quantifying the importance of fine-scale RCM-resolved features in the near-surface temperature, but disregarding their skill. The Reynolds decomposition technique is used to separate the variance of the time-varying RCM-simulated temperature field according to the contribution of large and small spatial scales and of stationary and transient processes. The temperature variance is then approximated by the contribution of four terms, two of them associated with coarse-scales (e.g., corresponding to the scales that can be simulated by AOGCMs) and two of them describing the original contribution of RCM simulations. Results show that the potential added value (PAV) emerges almost exclusively in regions characterised by important surface forcings either due to the presence of fine-scale topography or land-water contrasts. Moreover, some of the processes leading to small-scale variability appear to be related with relatively simple mechanisms such as the distinct physical properties of the Earth surface and the general variation of temperature with altitude in the Earth atmosphere. Finally, the article includes some results of the application of the PAV framework to the future temperature change signal due to anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. Here, contrary to previous studies centred on precipitation, findings suggest for surface temperature a relatively low potential of RCMs to add value over coarser resolution models, with the greatest potential located in coastline regions due to the differential warming occurring in land and water surfaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modern atmospheric observation and literatural historical drought-flood records were used to extract the inter-decadal signals of dry-wet modes in eastern China and reveal the possible relationship of global and China temperature changes associated with the East Asian summer monsoon advances. A climate pattern of 'wet-north and dry-south' in eastern China and cool period in China and globe are associated with the strong summer monsoon that can advance further to the northernmost part in the East Asian monsoon region. On the contrary, a climate pattern of 'dry-north and wet-south' in eastern China and a warm period in China and globe are associated with the weaker summer monsoon that only reaches the southern part in the region. An interdecadal oscillation with the timescale about 60 years was found dominating in both the dry-wet mode index series of the East Asian summer monsoon and the global temperature series after the secular climate states and long-term trend over inter-centennial timescales have been removed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, Räisänen and co-authors proposed a weighting scheme in which the relationship between observable climate and climate change within a multi-model ensemble determines to what extent agreement with observations affects model weights in climate change projection. Within the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset, this scheme slightly improved the cross-validated accuracy of deterministic projections of temperature change. Here the same scheme is applied to probabilistic temperature change projection, under the strong limiting assumption that the CMIP3 ensemble spans the actual modeling uncertainty. Cross-validation suggests that probabilistic temperature change projections may also be improved by this weighting scheme. However, the improvement relative to uniform weighting is smaller in the tail-sensitive logarithmic score than in the continuous ranked probability score. The impact of the weighting on projection of real-world twenty-first century temperature change is modest in most parts of the world. However, in some areas mainly over the high-latitude oceans, the mean of the distribution is substantially changed and/or the distribution is considerably narrowed. The weights of individual models vary strongly with location, so that a model that receives nearly zero weight in some area may still get a large weight elsewhere. Although the details of this variation are method-specific, it suggests that the relative strengths of different models may be difficult to harness by weighting schemes that use spatially uniform model weights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on the forecast that 2008, although will be slightly cooler than recent years globally, will still be among the top ten warmest years on record since 1850. According to reports, British forecaster noted that the slightly cooler temperature should not be seen as a sign global warming is declining. Meanwhile, the Met Office and experts at the University of East Anglia in England have said that global average temperatures in 2008 would be 0.37 of a degree Celsius above the long-term 1961-1990 average of 14 degree and be the coolest since 2000.

The variation of near-surface air temperature anomalies in Africa between 1979 and 2010 is investigated primarily using Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) total lower-tropospheric temperature data from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) datasets. Significant increasing temperature trends were found in each of the following regions examined: all of Africa, Northern Hemisphere Africa, Southern Hemisphere Africa, tropical Africa, and subtropical Africa. Considering the months June--August, regions in both North and South Africa saw significantly warmer temperatures in the most recent period 1995--2010 than in the period 1979--94. However, for the months December--February, the significant warming was concentrated in the north of Africa. When the two most recent decades are compared with the period 1979--90, warming is observed over these same regions and is concentrated in the most recent decade, from 2001 to 2010. The results presented here indicate that the climate change over Africa is likely not predominantly a result of variations in the El Niñño--Southern Oscillation (a teleconnection that has been previously shown to affect climate in some parts of Africa). Instead the climate changes likely occur owing to other natural variability of the climate and/or may be a result of human activity. However, even without ascertaining the specific causes, the most important finding in this work is to demonstrate that a significant rise in African temperatures occurred between 1979 and 2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Using historical records on first and last frost and snow, spring cultivation, David peach blossom, autumn crop harvest, grade of sea freeze and change in northern citrus boundary, we reconstructed temperature change during 601-920 AD. The mean temperature of the winter half-year (October to April) over Central East China during this period was about -0.22°C higher than that of the present (1961-2000 AD mean). During 601-820 AD, mean temperature was about -0.52°C higher than the present. During 821-920 AD, the mean temperature was 0.42°C lower than the present. The temperature fluctuations were characterized by a maximum amplitude of 1.05°C at the centennial scale, 1.38°C at the 50-year scale, 2.02°C at the 30-year scale, and 2.3°C at the 20-year scale. There were four peaks warmer than today (601-620 AD, mean of 1°C higher temperature; 641-660 AD, 1.44°C; 701-720 AD, 0.88°C; 781-800 AD, 0.65°C). Three cold periods were in 741-760, 821-840, and 881-900 AD, the mean temperature of which was 0.37-0.87°C lower than the present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]