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Background: CD4 cell counts is widely used as a biomarker for treatment progression when studying the efficacy of drugs to treat HIV-infected patients. In the past, it had been also used in determining eligibility to initiate antiretroviral therapy. The main aim of this was to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time and use this model for an early prediction of subject-specific time to cross a pre-specified CD4 threshold. Methods: Hospital based retrospective cohort study of HIV-infected patients was conducted from January 2009 to December 2014 at University of Gondar hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Fractional polynomial random effect model is used to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time in response to treatment and to estimate the individual probability to be above a pre-selected CD4 threshold. Human subject research approval for this study was received from University of Gondar Research Ethics Committee and the medical director of the hospital. Results: A total of 1347 patients were included in the analysis presented in this paper. The cohort contributed a total of 236.58 per 100 person-years of follow-up. Later the data were divided into two periods: the first is the estimation period in which the parameters of the model are estimated and the second is the prediction period. Based on the parameters from the estimation period, model based prediction for the time to cross a threshold was estimated. The correlations between observed and predicted values of CD4 levels in the estimation period were 0.977 and 0.982 for Neverapine and Efavirenz containing regimens, respectively; while the correlation between the observed and predicted CD4 counts in the prediction period are 0.742 and 0.805 for NVP and EFV, respectively. Conclusions: The model enables us to estimate a subject-specific expected time to cross a CD4 threshold and to estimate a subject-specific probability to have CD4 count above a pre-specified threshold at each time point. By predicting long-term outcomes of CD4 count of the patients one can advise patient about the potential ART benefits that accrue in the long-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Agricultural technologies developed by national and international research institutions were not benefiting the rural population of Ethiopia to the extent desired. As a response, integrated agricultural extension approaches are proposed as a key strategy to transform the smallholder farming sector. Improving Productivity and Market Success (IPMS) of Ethiopian Farmers project is one of the development projects initiated by integrating productivity enhancement technological schemes with market development model. This paper explores the impact of the project intervention in the smallholder farmers’ wellbeing. Methods: To test the research hypothesis of whether the project brought a significant change in the input use, marketed surplus, efficiency and income of farm households, we use a cross-section data from 200 smallholder farmers in Northwest Ethiopia, collected through multi-stage sampling procedure. To control for self-selection from observable characteristics of the farm households, we employ Propensity Score Matching (PSM). We finally use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques to estimate technical efficiency of farm households. Results: The outcome of the research is in line with the premises that the participation of the household in the IPMS project improves purchased input use, marketed surplus, efficiency of farms and the overall gain from farming. The participant households on average employ more purchased agricultural inputs and gain higher gross margin from the production activities as compared to the non-participant households. The non-participant households on average supply less output (measured both in monetary terms and proportion of total produce) to the market as compared to their participant counterparts. Except for the technical efficiency of production in potato, project participant households are better-off in production efficiency compared with the non-participant counterparts. Conclusion: We verified the idea that Improving Productivity and Market Success (IPMS) of Ethiopian farmers’ project has contributed for the input and out market integration and/or market oriented agricultural production. Overall, we argue that these can be seen as an experimental model with a promising potential to improve the livelihood of the poor. Furthermore, we suggest that it is worthwhile to employ integrated agricultural extension programs with further targeting in the developing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing child undernutrition is a key social policy objective of the Ethiopian government. Despite substantial reduction over the last decade and a half, child undernutrition is still high; with 48 percent of children either stunted, underweight or wasted, undernutrition remains an important child health challenge. The existing literature highlights that targeting of efforts to reduce undernutrition in Ethiopia is inefficient, in part due to lack of data and updated information. This paper remedies some of this shortfall by estimating levels of stunting and underweight in each woreda for 2014. The estimates are small area estimations based on the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey and the latest population census. It is shown that small area estimations are powerful predictors of undernutrition, even compared to household characteristics, such as wealth and education, and hence a valuable targeting metric. The results show large variations in share of children undernourished within each region, more than between regions. The results also show that the locations with larger challenges depend on the chosen undernutrition statistic, as the share, number and concentration of undernourished children point to vastly different locations. There is also limited correlation between share of children underweight and stunted across woredas, indicating that different locations face different challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Ethiopia recorded the highest numbers of people with diabetes in Africa. It is not uncommon for diabetic patients to have poor glycemic control leading to a number of complications. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the level of glycemic control among diabetic patients in Ethiopia by combining the studies from the existing literature. Materials and methods: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines was employed to plan and conduct this review. A comprehensive electronic-based literature search was conducted in the databases of MEDLINE, HINARI, GOOGLE SCHOLAR, and SCIENCEDIRECT. Open meta-analyst software was used to perform meta-analyses. Proportions of good glycemic control among diabetic patients was calculated. Odds ratio was also calculated to check the presence of statistically significant difference in glycemic control among patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Results: A total of 22 studies were included in the final analysis. Meta-analysis of 16 studies showed that only one-third of patients [34.4% (95% CI: 27.9%-40.9%), p<0.001] achieving good glycemic control based on fasting plasma glucose measurements. Similar to the studies that used fasting plasma glucose, the rate of good glycemic control was found to be 33.2% [(95% CI: 21.8%-44.6%), p<0.001] based on glycosylated hemoglobin measurements. There was no statistically significant difference in the rates of glycemic control between patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes (p = 0.167). Conclusion: High proportion of diabetic patients were unable to achieve good glycemic control. There was no difference in glycemic control among type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assessed households’ resilience to climate change-induced shocks in Dinki watershed, northcentral highlands of Ethiopia. The data were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted on 288 households, three focus group discussions, and 15 key informant interviews. The Climate Resilience Index (CRI) based on the three resilience capacities (absorptive, adaptive and transformative) frame was used to measure households’ resilience to climate change-induced shocks on an agro-ecological unit of analysis. A principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis were used to identify determinant factors and indicators to households’ resilience, respectively. Findings indicate that the indexed scores of major components clearly differentiated the study communities in terms of their agro-ecological zones. Specifically, the absorptive capacity (0.495) was the leading contributing factor to resilience followed by adaptive (0.449) and transformative (0.387) capacities. Likewise, the Midland was relatively more resilient with a mean index value of 0.461. Both the PCA and multiple regression analysis indicated that access to and use of livelihood resources, such as farmlands and livestock holdings, diversity of income sources, infrastructure and social capital were determinants of households’ resilience. In general, it might be due to their exposure to recurrent shocks coupled with limited adaptive capacities including underdeveloped public services, poor livelihood diversification practices, among others, the study communities showed minimal resilience capacity with a mean score of 0.44. Thus, in addition to short-term buffering strategies, intervention priority focusing on both adaptive and transformative capacities, particularly focusing on most vulnerable localities and constrained livelihood strategies, would contribute to ensuring long-term resilience in the study communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visceral Leishmaniasis is a very dangerous form of leishmaniasis and, shorn of appropriate diagnosis and handling, it leads to death and physical disability. Depicting the spatiotemporal pattern of disease is important for disease regulator and deterrence strategies. Spatiotemporal modeling has distended broad veneration in recent years. Spatial and spatiotemporal disease modeling is extensively used for the analysis of registry data and usually articulated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. In this study, we have developed the hierarchical spatiotemporal Bayesian modeling of the infected rate of Visceral leishmaniasis in Human (VLH). We applied the Stochastics Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach for a spatiotemporal hierarchical model for Visceral leishmaniasis in human (VLH) that involves a GF and a state process is associated with an autoregressive order one temporal dynamics and the spatially correlated error term, along with the effect of land shield, metrological, demographic, socio-demographic and geographical covariates in an endemic area of Amhara regional state, Ethiopia. The model encompasses a Gaussian Field (GF), affected by an error term, and a state process described by a first-order autoregressive dynamic model and spatially correlated innovations. A hierarchical model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to the infected rate of Visceral leishmaniasis in human (VLH) weekly data from January 2015 to December 2017 using the R package R-INLA, which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. We found that the mean weekly temperature had a significant positive association with infected rate of VLH. Moreover, net migration rate, clean water coverage, average number of households, population density per square kilometer, average number of persons per household unit, education coverage, health facility coverage, mortality rate, and sex ratio had a significant association with the infected rate of visceral leishmaniasis (VLH) in the region. In this study, we investigated the dynamic spatiotemporal modeling of Visceral leishmaniasis in Human (VLH) through a stochastic partial differential equation approach (SPDE) using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). Our study had confirmed both metrological, demographic, sociodemographic and geographic covariates had a significant association with the infected rate of visceral leishmaniasis (VLH) in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite remarkable progress in the reduction of under-five mortality, childhood diarrhea is still the leading cause of mortality and morbidity in this highly susceptible and vulnerable population. In Ethiopia, study findings regarding prevalence and determinants of diarrhea amongst under-five children have been inconsistent. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis estimates the pooled prevalence of diarrhea and its determinants among under-five children in Ethiopia. Methods: International databases, including PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, CINAHL, Google Scholar, Science Direct, and the Cochrane Library, were systematically searched. All identified observational studies reporting the prevalence and determinants of diarrhea among under-five children in Ethiopia were included. Two authors independently extracted all necessary data using a standardized data extraction format. STATA Version 13 statistical software was used. The Cochrane Q test statistics and I2 test were used to assess the heterogeneity of the studies. A random effects model was computed to estimate the pooled prevalence of diarrhea. Moreover, the associations between determinant factors and childhood diarrhea were examined using the random effect model. Results: After reviewing of 535 studies, 31studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. The findings from the 31 studies revealed that the pooled prevalence of diarrhea among under-five children in Ethiopia was 22% (95%CI: 19, 25%). Subgroup analysis of this study revealed that the highest prevalence was observed in Afar region (27%), followed by Somali and Dire Dawa regions (26%), then Addis Abeba (24%). Lack of maternal education (OR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.3, 2.1), lack of availability of latrine (OR: 2.0, 95%CI: 1.3, 3.2), urban residence (OR: 1.9, 95%CI: 1.2, 3.0), and maternal hand washing (OR: 2.2, 95%CI: 2.0, 2.6) were significantly associated with childhood diarrhea. Conclusion: In this study, diarrhea among under-five children in Ethiopia was significantly high. Lack of maternal education, lack of availability of latrine, urban residence, and lack of maternal hand washing were significantly associated with childhood diarrhea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several studies reported that the majority of deaths in HIV-infected people are documented in their early antiretroviral therapy (ART) follow-ups. Early mortality refers to death of people on ART for follow up period of below 24 months due to any cause. The current study assessed predictors of early HIV mortality in Southwest Ethiopia. Methods: We have conducted a retrospective analysis of 5299 patient records dating from June 2003- March 2015. To estimate survival time and compare the time to event among the different groups of patients, we used a Kaplan Meir curve and log-rank test. To identify mortality predictors, we used a cox regression analysis. We used SPSS-20 for all analyses. Results: A total of 326 patients died in the 12 years follow-up period contributing to 6.2% cumulative incidence and 21.7 deaths per 1000 person-year observations incidence rate. Eighty-nine percent of the total deaths were documented in the first two years follow up—an early-term ART follow up. Early HIV mortality rates among adults were 50% less in separated, divorced or widowed patients compared with never married patients, 1.6 times higher in patients with baseline CD4 count <200 cells/μL compared to baseline CD4 count ≥200 cells/μL, 1.5 times higher in patients with baseline WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 compared to baseline WHO clinical stage 1 or 2, 2.1 times higher in patients with immunologic failure compared with no immunologic failure, 60% less in patients with fair or poor compared with good adherence, 2.9 times higher in patients with bedridden functional status compared to working functional status, and 2.7 times higher with patients who had no history of HIV testing before diagnosis compared to those who had history of HIV testing. Most predictors of early mortality remained the same to the predictors of an overall HIV mortality. When discontinuation was assumed as an event, the predictors of an overall HIV mortality included age between 25–50 years, base line CD4 count, developing immunologic failure, bedridden functional status, and no history of HIV testing before diagnosis. Conclusions: The great majority of deaths were documented in the first two years of ART, and several predictors of early HIV mortality were also for the overall mortality when discontinuation was assumed as event or censored. Considering the above population, interventions to improve HIV program in the first two years of ART follow up should be improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the immunological benefit of treatment and increases complications related to human immune-deficiency virus (HIV). However, the risk factors for ART discontinuation are poorly understood in developing countries particularly in Ethiopia. This review aimed to assess the best available evidence regarding risk factors for ART discontinuation in Ethiopia. Methods: Quantitative studies conducted in Ethiopia between 2002 and 2015 that evaluated factors associated with ART discontinuation were sought across six major databases. Only English language articles were included. This review considered studies that included the following outcome: ART treatment discontinuation, i.e. ‘lost to follow up’, ‘defaulting’ and ‘stopping medication’. Meta- analysis was performed with Mantel Haenszel method using Revman-5 software. Summary statistics were expressed as pooled odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals at a p-value of <0.05. Results: Nine (9) studies met the criteria of the search. Five (5) were retrospective studies, 3 were case control studies, and 1 was a prospective cohort study. The total sample size in the included studies was 62,156. Being rural dweller (OR = 2.1, 95%CI: 1.5–2.7, I2 = 60%), being illiterate (OR = 1.5, 95%CI: 1.1–2.1), being not married (OR = 1.4, 95%CI: 1.1–1.8), being alcohol drinker (OR = 2.9, 95%CI: 1.9–4.4, I2 = 39%), being tobacco smoker (OR = 2.6, 95%CI: 1.6–4.3, I2 = 74%), having mental illness (OR = 2.7, 95%CI: 1.6–4.6, I2 = 0%) and being bed ridden functional status (OR = 2.3, 95%CI: 1.5–3.4, I2 = 37%) were risk factors for ART discontinuation. Whereas, having HIV positive partner (OR = 0.4, 95%CI: 0.3–0.6, I2 = 69%) and being co-infected with Tb/HIV (OR = 0.6, 95%CI: 0.4–0.9, I2 = 0%) were protective factors. Conclusion: Demographic, behavioral and clinical factors influenced ART treatment discontinuation. Hence, we recommend strengthening decentralization of HIV care services in remote areas, strengthening of ART task shifting, application of seek-test-treat-succeed model, and integration of smoking cession strategies and mental health care into the routine HIV care program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]