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Introduction: Natural resource management uses expert judgement to estimate facts that inform important decisions. Unfortunately, expert judgement is often derived by informal and largely untested protocols, despite evidence that the quality of judgements can be improved with structured approaches. We attribute the lack of uptake of structured protocols to the dearth of illustrative examples that demonstrate how they can be applied within pressing time and resource constraints, while also improving judgements. Aims and methods: In this paper, we demonstrate how the IDEA protocol for structured expert elicitation may be deployed to overcome operational challenges while improving the quality of judgements. The protocol was applied to the estimation of 14 future abiotic and biotic events on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Seventy-six participants with varying levels of expertise related to the Great Barrier Reef were recruited and allocated randomly to eight groups. Each participant provided their judgements using the four-step question format of the IDEA protocol (‘Investigate’, ‘Discuss’, ‘Estimate’, ‘Aggregate’) through remote elicitation. When the events were realised, the participant judgements were scored in terms of accuracy, calibration and informativeness. Results and conclusions: The results demonstrate that the IDEA protocol provides a practical, cost-effective, and repeatable approach to the elicitation of quantitative estimates and uncertainty via remote elicitation. We emphasise that i) the aggregation of diverse individual judgements into pooled group judgments almost always outperformed individuals, and ii) use of a modified Delphi approach helped to remove linguistic ambiguity, and further improved individual and group judgements. Importantly, the protocol encourages review, critical appraisal and replication, each of which is required if judgements are to be used in place of data in a scientific context. The results add to the growing body of literature that demonstrates the merit of using structured elicitation protocols. We urge decision-makers and analysts to use insights and examples to improve the evidence base of expert judgement in natural resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trichodesmium, a filamentous bloom-forming marine cyanobacterium, plays a key role in the biogeochemistry of oligotrophic ocean regions because of the ability to fix nitrogen. Naturally occurring in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the contribution of Trichodesmium to the nutrient budget may be of the same order as that entering the system via catchment runoff. However, the cyclicity of Trichodesmium in the GBR is poorly understood and sparsely documented because of the lack of sufficient observations. This study provides the first systematic analysis of Trichodesmium spatial and temporal occurrences in the GBR over the decade-long MERIS ocean color mission (2002–2012). Trichodesmium surface expressions were detected using the Maximum Chlorophyll Index (MCI) applied to MERIS satellite imagery of the GBR lagoonal waters. The MCI performed well (76%), albeit tested on a limited set of images (N = 25) coincident with field measurements. A north (Cape York) to south (Fitzroy) increase in the extent, frequency and timing of the surface expressions characterized the GBR, with surface expressions extending over several hundreds of kilometers. The two southernmost subregions Mackay and Fitzroy accounted for the most (70%) bloom events. The bloom timing of Trichodesmium varied from May in the north to November in the south, with wet season conditions less favorable to Trichodesmium aggregations. MODIS-Aqua Sea Surface Temperature (SST) datasets, wind speed and field measurements of nutrient concentrations were used in combination with MCI positive instances to assess the blooms’ driving factors. Low wind speed (<6 m.s-1) and SST > 24°C were associated with the largest surface aggregations. Generalized additive models (GAM) indicated an increase in bloom occurrences over the 10-year period with seasonal bloom patterns regionally distinct. Interannual variability in SST partially (14%) explained bloom occurrences, and other drivers, such as the subregion and the nutrient budget, likely regulate Trichodesmium surface aggregations in the GBR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia’s iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR) continues to suffer from repeated impacts of cyclones, coral bleaching, and outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), losing much of its coral cover in the process. This raises the question of the ecosystem’s systemic resilience and its ability to rebound after large-scale population loss. Here, we reveal that around 100 reefs of the GBR, or around 3%, have the ideal properties to facilitate recovery of disturbed areas, thereby imparting a level of systemic resilience and aiding its continued recovery. These reefs (1) are highly connected by ocean currents to the wider reef network, (2) have a relatively low risk of exposure to disturbances so that they are likely to provide replenishment when other reefs are depleted, and (3) have an ability to promote recovery of desirable species but are unlikely to either experience or spread COTS outbreaks. The great replenishment potential of these ‘robust source reefs’, which may supply 47% of the ecosystem in a single dispersal event, emerges from the interaction between oceanographic conditions and geographic location, a process that is likely to be repeated in other reef systems. Such natural resilience of reef systems will become increasingly important as the frequency of disturbances accelerates under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presence of banding in the skeleton of coralline algae has been reported in many species, primarily from temperate and polar regions. Similar to tree rings, skeletal banding can provide information on growth rate, age, and longevity; as well as records of past environmental conditions and the coralline alga’s growth responses to such changes. The aim of this study was to explore the presence and characterise the nature of banding in the tropical coralline alga Porolithon onkodes, an abundant and key reef-building species on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) Australia, and the Indo-Pacific in general. To achieve this we employed various methods including X-ray diffraction (XRD) to determine seasonal mol% magnesium (Mg), mineralogy mapping to investigate changes in dominant mineral phases, scanning electron microscopy–electron dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), and micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) scanning to examine changes in cell size and density banding, and UV light to examine reproductive (conceptacle) banding. Seasonal variation in the Mg content of the skeleton did occur and followed previously recorded variations with the highest mol% MgCO3 in summer and lowest in winter, confirming the positive relationship between seawater temperature and mol% MgCO3. Rows of conceptacles viewed under UV light provided easily distinguishable bands that could be used to measure vertical growth rate (1.4 mm year-1) and age of the organism. Micro-CT scanning showed obvious banding patterns in relation to skeletal density, and mineralogical mapping revealed patterns of banding created by changes in Mg content. Thus, we present new evidence for seasonal banding patterns in the tropical coralline alga P. onkodes. This banding in the P. onkodes skeleton can provide valuable information into the present and past life history of this important reef-building species, and is essential to assess and predict the response of these organisms to future climate and environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (COTS) has contributed greatly to declines in coral cover on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, and remains one of the major acute disturbances on Indo-Pacific coral reefs. Despite uncertainty about the underlying causes of outbreaks and the management responses that might address them, few studies have critically and directly compared competing hypotheses. This study uses qualitative modelling to compare hypotheses relating to outbreak initiation, explicitly considering the potential role of positive feedbacks, elevated nutrients, and removal of starfish predators by fishing. When nutrients and fishing are considered in isolation, the models indicate that a range of alternative hypotheses are capable of explaining outbreak initiation with similar levels of certainty. The models also suggest that outbreaks may be caused by multiple factors operating simultaneously, rather than by single proximal causes. As the complexity and realism of the models increased, the certainty of outcomes decreased, but key areas that require further research to improve the structure of the models were identified. Nutrient additions were likely to result in outbreaks only when COTS larvae alone benefitted from nutrients. Similarly, the effects of fishing on the decline of corals depended on the complexity of interactions among several categories of fishes. Our work suggests that management approaches which seek to be robust to model structure uncertainty should allow for multiple potential causes of outbreaks. Monitoring programs can provide tests of alternative potential causes of outbreaks if they specifically monitor all key taxa at reefs that are exposed to appropriate combinations of potential causal factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Widespread contamination of nearshore marine systems, including the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon, with agricultural herbicides has long been recognised. The fate of these contaminants in the marine environment is poorly understood but the detection of photosystem II (PSII) herbicides in the GBR year-round suggests very slow degradation rates. Here, we evaluated the persistence of a range of commonly detected herbicides in marine water under field-relevant concentrations and conditions. Twelve-month degradation experiments were conducted in large open tanks, under different light scenarios and in the presence and absence of natural sediments. All PSII herbicides were persistent under control conditions (dark, no sediments) with half-lives of 300 d for atrazine, 499 d diuron, 1994 d hexazinone, 1766 d tebuthiuron, while the non-PSII herbicides were less persistent at 147 d for metolachlor and 59 d for 2,4-D. The degradation of herbicides was 2–10 fold more rapid in the presence of a diurnal light cycle and coastal sediments; apart from 2,4-D which degraded more slowly in the presence of light. Despite the more rapid degradation observed for most herbicides in the presence of light and sediments, the half-lives remained > 100 d for the PS II herbicides. The effects of light and sediments on herbicide persistence were likely due to their influence on microbial community composition and its ability to utilise the herbicides as a carbon source. These results help explain the year-round presence of PSII herbicides in marine systems, including the GBR, but more research on the transport, degradation and toxicity on a wider range of pesticides and their transformation products is needed to improve their regulation in sensitive environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deepwater chondrichthyan fauna of the Great Barrier Reef is poorly known and life history information is required to enable their effective management as they are inherently vulnerable to exploitation. The chondrichthyan bycatch from the deepwater eastern king prawn fishery at the Swain Reefs in the southern Great Barrier Reef was examined to determine the species present and provide information on their life histories. In all, 1533 individuals were collected from 11 deepwater chondrichthyan species, with the Argus skate Dipturus polyommata, piked spurdog Squalus megalops and pale spotted catshark Asymbolus pallidus the most commonly caught. All but one species is endemic to Australia with five species restricted to waters offshore from Queensland. The extent of life history information available for each species varied but the life history traits across all species were characteristic of deep water chondrichthyans with relatively large length at maturity, small litters and low ovarian fecundity; all indicative of low biological productivity. However, variability among these traits and spatial and bathymetric distributions of the species suggests differing degrees of resilience to fishing pressure. To ensure the sustainability of these bycatch species, monitoring of their catches in the deepwater eastern king prawn fishery is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large tropical and sub-tropical marine animals must meet their energetic requirements in a largely oligotrophic environment. Many planktivorous elasmobranchs, whose thermal ecologies prevent foraging in nutrient-rich polar waters, aggregate seasonally at predictable locations throughout tropical oceans where they are observed feeding. Here we investigate the foraging and oceanographic environment around Lady Elliot Island, a known aggregation site for reef manta rays Manta alfredi in the southern Great Barrier Reef. The foraging behaviour of reef manta rays was analysed in relation to zooplankton populations and local oceanography, and compared to long-term sighting records of reef manta rays from the dive operator on the island. Reef manta rays fed at Lady Elliot Island when zooplankton biomass and abundance were significantly higher than other times. The critical prey density threshold that triggered feeding was 11.2 mg m-3 while zooplankton size had no significant effect on feeding. The community composition and size structure of the zooplankton was similar when reef manta rays were feeding or not, with only the density of zooplankton changing. Higher zooplankton biomass was observed prior to low tide, and long-term (~5 years) sighting data confirmed that more reef manta rays are also observed feeding during this tidal phase than other times. This is the first study to examine prey availability at an aggregation site for reef manta rays and it indicates that they feed in locations and at times of higher zooplankton biomass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much research on coral reefs has documented differential declines in coral and associated organisms. In order to contextualise this general degradation, research on community composition is necessary in the context of varied disturbance histories and the biological processes and physical features thought to retard or promote recovery. We conducted a spatial assessment of coral reef communities across five reefs of the central Great Barrier Reef, Australia, with known disturbance histories, and assessed patterns of coral cover and community composition related to a range of other variables thought to be important for reef dynamics. Two of the reefs had not been extensively disturbed for at least 15 years prior to the surveys. Three of the reefs had been severely impacted by crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks and coral bleaching approximately a decade before the surveys, from which only one of them was showing signs of recovery based on independent surveys. We incorporated wave exposure (sheltered and exposed) and reef zone (slope, crest and flat) into our design, providing a comprehensive assessment of the spatial patterns in community composition on these reefs. Categorising corals into life history groupings, we document major coral community differences in the unrecovered reefs, compared to the composition and covers found on the undisturbed reefs. The recovered reef, despite having similar coral cover, had a different community composition from the undisturbed reefs, which may indicate slow successional processes, or a different natural community dominance pattern due to hydrology and other oceanographic factors. The variables that best correlated with patterns in the coral community among sites included the density of juvenile corals, herbivore fish biomass, fish species richness and the cover of macroalgae. Given increasing impacts to the Great Barrier Reef, efforts to mitigate local stressors will be imperative to encouraging coral communities to persist into the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scleractinian coral Acropora millepora is one of the most studied species from the Great Barrier Reef. This species has been used to understand evolutionary, immune and developmental processes in cnidarians. It has also been subject of several ecological studies in order to elucidate reef responses to environmental changes such as temperature rise and ocean acidification (OA). In these contexts, several nucleic acid resources were made available. When combined to a recent proteomic analysis of the coral skeletal organic matrix (SOM), they enabled the identification of several skeletal matrix proteins, making A. millepora into an emerging model for biomineralization studies. Here we describe the skeletal microstructure of A. millepora skeleton, together with a functional and biochemical characterization of its occluded SOM that focuses on the protein and saccharidic moieties. The skeletal matrix proteins show a large range of isoelectric points, compositional patterns and signatures. Besides secreted proteins, there are a significant number of proteins with membrane attachment sites such as transmembrane domains and GPI anchors as well as proteins with integrin binding sites. These features show that the skeletal proteins must have strong adhesion properties in order to function in the calcifying space. Moreover this data suggest a molecular connection between the calcifying epithelium and the skeletal tissue during biocalcification. In terms of sugar moieties, the enrichment of the SOM in arabinose is striking, and the monosaccharide composition exhibits the same signature as that of mucus of acroporid corals. Finally, we observe that the interaction of the acetic acid soluble SOM on the morphology of in vitro grown CaCO3 crystals is very pronounced when compared with the calcifying matrices of some mollusks. In light of these results, we wish to commend Acropora millepora as a model for biocalcification studies in scleractinians, from molecular and structural viewpoints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]