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In the past few decades, human activities have caused the emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide, which has severely impacted the Earth's ecosystem and human health. Therefore, carbon reduction has become the focus of global attention. In this study, the Zhouyuan region of China, which is rich in ancient remains, is taken as an example. Based on the land use characteristics in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, the spatial-temporal evolution of land use and carbon storage in the Zhouyuan region is simulated using four methods, including land use classification, land use transfer maps, patch-level land-use simulation (PLUS), and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) models under three scenarios, including the natural development scenario, urban development priority, and heritage conservation priority in 2030. According to the results, the carbon storage in the area in 2030 under all three scenario simulations has decreased compared with 2020, indicating that the region faces great challenges in achieving its targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The paper points out four causes for the decrease in carbon storage, and five suggestions for increasing carbon storage are proposed, such as developing a carbon storage master plan, applying energy-saving technologies, establishing an ecological substitution mechanism, and so on. Through the study of carbon storage in the Zhouyuan region, this paper hopes to establish a mechanism to balance urban development, heritage conservation, and carbon sinks on the one hand, and encourage more scholars to participate in the study of carbon sinks in areas rich in ancient remains, so as to to jointly promote their healthy development on the other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon sink is the process of absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere, through forests, wetlands, grasslands, and oceans. Through this process, greenhouse gases can be absorbed from the atmosphere. In order to analyze the contribution of carbon sinks to carbon neutrality, three parts of works were carried out on carbon sinks in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Firstly, the regional carbon sinks were calculated based on actual data. Secondly, the macro-factors were selected related to carbon sinks, on which the econometric analysis was carried out. Finally, a carbon sink prediction model was constructed based on partial least squares regression. After that, three carbon sink development scenarios with different intensities were set up. Under these three scenarios, the carbon sink potential of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was forecasted from 2020 to 2030. The results show that under the strong carbon sink scenario, the carbon sink in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei can neutralize 388.6901 million tons/a of carbon emissions by 2030, whose contribution rate to China's carbon emission reduction can reach 10.48%. Compared with the baseline scenario and weak carbon sink scenario, the strong carbon sink scenario can achieve greater carbon sink potential and contribute more to China's carbon neutrality. As a conclusion, the target of carbon neutrality of China can be easier to achieve under the strong carbon sink scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric concentration of CO2 is steadily increasing and causing climate change. To achieve the Paris 1.5 or 2°C target, negative emission technologies must be deployed in addition to reducing carbon emissions. The ocean is a large carbon sink but the potential of marine primary producers to contribute to carbon neutrality remains unclear.Here we review the alterations to carbon capture and sequestration of marine primary producers (including traditional 'blue carbon' plants, microalgae and macroalgae) in the Anthropocene, and, for the first time, assess and compare the potential of various marine primary producers to carbon neutrality and climate change mitigation via biogeoengineering approaches.The contributions of marine primary producers to carbon sequestration have been decreasing in the Anthropocene due to the decrease in biomass driven by direct anthropogenic activities and climate change. The potential of blue carbon plants (mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrasses) is limited by the available areas for their revegetation. Microalgae appear to have a large potential due to their ubiquity but how to enhance their carbon sequestration efficiency is very complex and uncertain. On the other hand, macroalgae can play an essential role in mitigating climate change through extensive offshore cultivation due to higher carbon sequestration capacity and substantial available areas. This approach seems both technically and economically feasible due to the development of offshore aquaculture and a well‐established market for macroalgal products.Synthesis and applications. This paper provides new insights and suggests promising directions for utilizing marine primary producers to achieve the Paris temperature target. We propose that macroalgae cultivation can play an essential role in attaining carbon neutrality and climate change mitigation, although its ecological impacts need to be assessed further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has committed to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. Hebei, as a major energy province in China, has more challenging carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets. Based on the extended STIRPAT model, this paper evaluates the time to peak carbon and post-peak carbon trend changes in Hebei province under different scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Based on the support vector machine model with particle swarm optimization, this paper evaluates the carbon neutral pathways under different scenarios in Hebei province from 2020 to 2060 in terms of forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS). The results show that a monotonically flat trend without inflection point, a single-inflection-point plateau-period trend and a multi-inflection-point inverted U-wave trend occur after carbon peaks. Hebei Province can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 under the policy scenario and the enhanced scenario, and the enhanced scenario is better. Comparing with existing studies, the innovation of this paper is to design different trends of changes after carbon peak, combining carbon absorption and carbon emission, and providing more diversified development paths for carbon neutral strategies through a more integrated perspective and multi-scenario comprehensive analysis. Therefore, In the future, Hebei Province should establish a platform for carbon emissions monitoring and carbon footprint assessment, and set up an early warning and assessment mechanism for carbon peaking, so as to prevent a rebound trend in carbon emissions after peaking. At the same time, it should introduce and develop carbon capture and conversion technologies and promote the low-carbon transformation of the industrial and energy sectors, thereby forcing the early realization of peak carbon. Pay attention to the role of forestry resources in carbon neutrality, increase carbon sink resources such as forests and wetlands, promote the development of CCUS, and enhance the implementation of the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global warming induced by the emission of greenhouse gases, especially the carbon dioxide, has become the global climate and environmental issues. China has been working in the CO2 emission reduction and carbon sinks with the purpose of becoming the carbon-neutral country by 2060. The CO2 capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies and the reforestation technology represented by the Conversion of Cropland to Forestland Program (CCFP) have great potential for sinking CO2 emission. However, the trade-off among CCFP, CCS/CCUS and Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus are not well evaluated. In this paper, the remote-sensing data are collected and used to evaluate the sustainability of CCFP by analyzing the variation of land use and land cover (LULC), crop production, etc. The results show that 13.29% of the cropland in 2001 vanished and converted to grassland (8.3%), mosaic cropland (3%) and urban land (0.98%) in 2019, demonstrating that the CCFP is successful in both WEF nexus and carbon sink. The total crop production has increased around 50% between 2001 and 2019, implying that the CCFP will not lead to the food risk during the conversion of croplands into other types of land in China. A sustainable implementation of CCFP and other environmental Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) policies in 2019–2060 could reach an estimated total growth of 7.462 billion m3 in comparison of that in 2018 and the total plantation forest stock of about 10.852 billion m3 in 2060, with a corresponding minimum CO2 sink of 2.90 billion tons in 2060. The estimated peak of net equivalent CO2 emissions before 2030 is about 11.0 billion tons and could not be reduced to zero by 2060 without the large-scale application of the CCS/CCUS technologies as geological sequestration of CO2. Besides, the application of CCS/CCUS can be beneficial for WEF, e.g., through replacing the water by CO2 during energy production, especially in the shale gas production in the regions with high water risks in China. In one word, CCS/CCUS and CCFP are two decided pathways of carbon sequestration and should be systematically applied to achieve China's carbon neutrality by 2060. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Zhejiang Province, charged with the task of opening "an important window", should take the lead in the implementation of the national "carbon peak, carbon neutral" strategy. The intention of this study is to start from the intersection of economics and geography, and on the basis of GIS analysis, use the spatial Dubin model to study the spatio-temporal evolution trend, key influencing factors, and spatial spillover effects of forest carbon sequestration in 72 districts and counties of Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2020, to provide a theoretical and practical reference for how to formulate regional synergistic forest sink enhancement measures and help Zhejiang achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. The conclusions are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the overall growth of forest carbon sequestration in all regions and counties of Zhejiang Province was relatively high, but the regional differences were large. The concentration center and range moved to the southwest. (2) If the spatial effect is considered, the increase of per capita GDP, road density, and deforestation will reduce the forest carbon sequestration, and the conservation of ecological public welfare forests will have a significant positive relationship with the forest carbon sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is striving to achieve "carbon dioxide peaking" in 2030 and "carbon neutrality" in 2060. In addition to optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure and increasing industrial emission reduction, afforestation is an important way to increase forest carbon sinks and achieve carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality. Improved seedlings are significantly better than general seedlings in terms of afforestation adaptability, growth and stress resistance. The use of improved varieties for afforestation can improve the quality of afforestation from the source. Although the growth cycle of economical tree species is short, and the carbon storage does not increase after directional cultivation, they significantly improve the quality and yield, and indirectly reduce carbon emissions compared with ordinary seedlings. Therefore, in agricultural and forestry production, the transformation and utilization efficiency of improved varieties should be improved and the planting structure should be optimized to improve the quality and efficiency and significantly improve the yield and carbon storage, and the management of plantations should be strengthened to help achieve the goal of "carbon neutrality" as soon as possible. This paper analyzed the current situation of improved varieties and plantation management in China, and put forward corresponding countermeasures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on recent interest and on the importance of the ongoing climate change catastrophe, this article provides the basics of global carbon cycle modelling as required for the assessment of the degree of carbon neutrality of biomass energy, and its underlying dynamics. It is aimed at clarifying the question "Are biomass fuels carbon neutral?". The "Combined Energy and Biosphere Model" (CEBM) computes annual carbon flows including growth and decay of plants on 2.5 × 2.5° grid elements of the continents' surface and offers detailed results on the changes of after implementation of large-scale biomass energy strategies worldwide. The main (and possibly unexpected) effect is the long-term depletion of the soil organic compartment after extraction of biomass fuels. When comparing CEBM model runs using (i) biomass energy sources and (ii) carbon-free energy sources (such as solar or wind), it becomes quantitatively clear already on the theoretical level (i.e., even without taking into account efficiency losses) that biomass is only "half as carbon neutral" as ideally assumed, to express a rule of thumb—mainly because of soil carbon depletion. Still, biomass energy will play an important role when fighting global warming, even if efforts to lower energy demand are preferable as a fundamental strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Carbon neutrality has become a key strategy to combat global climate change. However, current methods for predicting carbon emissions are limited and require the development of more effective strategies to meet this challenge. This is especially true in the field of sports and competitions, where the energy intensity of major events and activities means that time series data is crucial for predicting related carbon emissions, as it can detail the emission patterns over a period of time. Method: In this study, we introduce an artificial intelligence-based method aimed at improving the accuracy and reliability of carbon emission predictions. Specifically, our model integrates an Improved Mahjong Search Algorithm (ISSA) and GRU-Transformer technology, designed to efficiently process and analyze the complex time series data generated by sporting events. These technological components help to capture and parse carbon emission data more accurately. Results: Experimental results have demonstrated the efficiency of our model, which underwent a comprehensive evaluation involving multiple datasets and was benchmarked against competing models. Our model outperformed others across various performance metrics, including lower RMSE and MAE values and higher R2 scores. This underscores the significant potential of our model in enhancing the accuracy of carbon emission predictions. Discussion: By introducing this new AI-based method for predicting carbon emissions, this study not only provides more accurate data support for optimizing and implementing carbon neutrality measures in the sports fi eld but also improves the accuracy of time series data predictions. This enables a deeper understanding of carbon emission trends associated with sports activities. It contributes to the development of more effective mitigation strategies, making a significant contribution to global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Process-related carbon emissions, which cannot be completely eliminated by the improvement of processes and energy structure, are recognized as an enormous challenge for in-depth decarbonization. To accelerate the achievement of carbon neutrality, the concept of 'artificial carbon cycle' is proposed based on the integrated system of process-related carbon emissions from high-emitting industries and CCU technology as a potential pathway towards a sustainable future. This paper conducts a systematic review on the integrated system with the case of China, which is the largest carbon-emitting and manufacturing country, to provide a clearer and more meaningful analysis. Multi-index assessment was used to organize the literature and draw the useful conclusion. Based on literature review, the high-quality carbon sources, reasonable carbon capture approaches and promising chemical products were identified and analyzed. Then the potential and practicability of the integrated system was further summarized and analyzed. Finally, key factors of future development including technology improvement, green hydrogen, clean energy and industrial cooperation were stressed to provide a theoretical reference for future researchers and policy makers. • Demonstration on the rationality and importance of applying CCU technology on process-based carbon emissions. • Multi-index assessment on adoptable carbon sources, possible pathways of carbon capture and carbon conversion. • Analysis on the potential and practicability of the integrated system to accelerate carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon trading policy seeks to control carbon emissions by putting a price on carbon emissions and establishing a corresponding carbon market for trading. It is a significant move by China to address climate issues and achieve its Carbon Neutrality target. Therefore, assessing the policy effects of carbon trading is fundamental to its implementation nationwide. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2008 to 2018, this paper uses the Synthetic Control Method and Differences-in-Differences method to assess the effects of carbon trading policy on achieving Carbon Neutrality. By measuring the net carbon emissions, this research explores the level of Carbon Neutrality in each region. Based on the Five-sphere Integrated Plan (which covers the economy, politics, culture, social and ecological civilization), this research further verifies the impact paths of carbon trading policy on Carbon Neutrality. The results show that: First, carbon trading policy has a significant and sustainable effect on Carbon Neutrality. Second, from the perspective of the Five-sphere Integrated Plan, the carbon trading policy can help to reduce carbon sources and increase carbon sinks by adjusting the industrial structure, coordinating low-carbon policies, promoting cultural dissemination, increasing green space construction, and reducing energy intensity to achieve Carbon Neutrality. Third, cultural construction plays the most significant role in mediating carbon trading and Carbon Neutrality, followed by political construction. • This paper examines the effectiveness of carbon trading policy for Carbon Neutrality. • We use the Synthetic Control Method and Difference-in-Differences method. • The impact paths of carbon trading policy are examined from the Five-sphere Integrated Plan perspective. • Carbon Neutrality should be incorporated into the Five-sphere Integrated Plan. • A cross-perspective study of the Five-sphere Integrated Plan, carbon trading with Chinese characteristics has been formed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon storage of forest vegetation plays a crucial role in the terrestrial carbon budget. The objective of this study is to elucidate the current biomass carbon storage and sequestration capacity, as well as the future carbon sequestration potential of forest ecosystems in Shaanxi Province of China, thus providing data support and policy references for sustainable forest management and the response of carbon sequestration to climate change. Based on the data obtained from the seventh and ninth forest resource inventories, the regional biomass conversion factors, and carbon measurement parameters, the biomass conversion factor method is employed to estimate the biomass storage and carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystems. (1) The total carbon storage of forest lands in Shaanxi Province was 285.20 Tg. The carbon storage of arbor forests, sparse woodlands, scattered forests, four-side trees, shrub woodland, and bamboo forests were 237.09 Tg, 2.93 Tg, 12.30 Tg, 5.98 Tg, 26.35 Tg, and 0.56 Tg, respectively. (2) Over the 10 years from the seventh (2005) to the ninth (2015) forest resource inventories, the carbon storage of forests increased from 207 Tg to 285 Tg, with a total increase of 78.01 Tg (37.65%), demonstrating a significant carbon sink function. (3) From 2015 to 2060, the carbon density of arbor forests will increase from 33.53 Mg/ha to 46.90 Mg/ha, and the carbon storage will increase from 237 Tg to 432 Tg. These results indicate that forests have significant net carbon sequestration capacity and can play an important role in achieving China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. Aiming for carbon neutrality, improving forest management, along with protecting and utilizing forest resources through technological innovation, will become the driving force for increasing carbon storage in Shaanxi Province in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nigeria, at the 2021 Conference of Parties (COP26) meeting in Glasgow announced a commitment to transitioning her carbon economy to reach net-zero by 2060. One year after, the country's drive for carbon neutrality is shrouded with uncertainties despite numerous policies targeted at it. This study employed the Multilevel Perspective (MLP) and PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental) analytical framework to assess the politics of low-carbon transition in Nigeria. We used a triangulation of literature review, document analysis, and survey to build the theoretical, historical, and empirical bases for the enquiry. The findings show that the current low-carbon transition process is characterised by few potential drivers and many barriers with critical uncertainty effects. The key drivers are: Nigeria's potentials for carbon sink/nature-based solutions; vast renewable energy resources; strong niche market demand; and huge opportunities for employment in the renewable energy sector. The major barriers are: poor management of the energy regime; weak infrastructural base; dependence on global climate fund; fossil fuel-based economy; cost of renewable energy options; and impacts of climate change, among others. The barriers with critical impacts outweigh the potential drivers at the ratio of 4:1 thereby playing greater role in characterizing Nigeria's transition pathway as the 'reconfiguration transition pathway' within the 'emergent transformation context.' Therefore, unless the identified regime barriers are eliminated, the current transition pathway may not deliver the low-carbon targets. Considering the huge mitigation potentials of Nigeria's vast forests and natural ecosystem for carbon sink, the study recommends investment in nature-based solutions in synergy with energy system management as the most convenient and cost-effective pathway to attaining carbon neutrality by 2060. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To explore the role of forest carbon sinks in achieving carbon neutrality, the cointegration regression method and scenario analysis are utilized to forecast the long-term development trend of China's forest carbon sinks up to the year 2100 and their impact on carbon neutrality. The results show that: (1) Under routine, accelerated, and strengthened ecological civilization scenarios (or RECS, AECS, and SECS, respectively), China's forests are projected to absorb 531–645 million tons of carbon by 2050 and 2.32–4.69 billion tons of carbon by 2100, respectively, and the value of the strengthened scenario will be markedly higher than that of the routine scenario. (2) Driven by slower growth in forestry investment, China's forest carbon sinks growth in all three scenarios peak by 2050 and then slow in a U-trend, with the growth rate in the SECS 0.45 percentage points higher than that of AECS, and the growth rate in the AECS 0.44 percentage points higher than that of RECS. (3) Under SECS, forest carbon sinks can help China achieve its carbon neutrality goal in 2054 (before the target date of 2060) with cumulative forestry investment of 53.3 trillion yuan and an annual investment growth rate of about 6.3%. Therefore, this study provides a deeper understanding than previous works of the important role of forest carbon sinks in achieving carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on historical land use for eight periods from 1980 to 2020 and the projected land use under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5) from 2021 to 2100, we conducted a study on past and future land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). This work aims to reveal the land use changes during the carbon peak (2021–2040) and carbon neutrality (2051–2070) periods and at the end of the 21st century (2081–2100). The results show that: (1) in the historical period (1980–2020), the land use types in the QTP were grassland (1475×103 km2, 58.2%), barren land (685×103 km2, 27.0%), forest land (243×103 km2, 9.6%), water (114×103 km2, 4.5%), cropland (18.6×103 km2, 0.7%) and urban land (0.3×103 km2, 0.01%). (2) Relative to the baseline period (1995–2014), the area of grassland is projected to decrease by 0.7% (SSP4-6.0)–5.4% (SSP2-4.5) (0.5–3.9% of the total area of the QTP), 2.8% (SSP4-6.0)–12.5% (SSP3-7.0) (2.1–9.4% of the total area of the QTP) and 6.1% (SSP4-6.0)–21.7% (SSP4-3.4) (4.6–16.4% of the total area of the QTP) in the future three periods. In contrast, the forest land area is projected to increase, by approximately 2.5% (SSP4-6.0) to 30.1% (SSP3-7.0) (0.3–4.3% of the total area of the QTP), 9.2% (SSP4-6.0) to 56.5% (SSP2-4.5) (1.3–8.0% of the total area of the QTP), and 21.2% (SSP4-6.0) to 72.8% (SSP2-4.5) (3.0–10.2% of the total area of the QTP) in the future three periods, respectively. (3) Approximately 0.4 (SSP4-6.0) to 6.9% (SSP5-8.5), 0.9 (SSP4-6.0) to 2.7% (SSP4-3.4), and 0.04 (SSP5-8.5) to 3.5% (SSP1-1.9) of land is expected to convert from grassland to forest land in the future three periods, respectively. The shift from grassland to forest land area is likely to enhance the carbon sink potential of the QTP in the future period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water use efficiency (WUE) is a key index for understanding the ecosystem of carbon–water coupling. The undistinguishable carbon–water coupling mechanism and uncertainties of indirect methods by remote sensing products and process models render challenges for WUE remote sensing. In this paper, current progress in direct and indirect methods of WUE estimation by remote sensing is reviewed. Indirect methods based on gross primary production (GPP)/evapotranspiration (ET) from ground observation, processed models and remote sensing are the main ways to estimate WUE in which carbon and water cycles are independent processes. Various empirical models based on meteorological variables and remote sensed vegetation indices to estimate WUE proved the ability of remotely sensed data for WUE estimating. The analytical model provides a mechanistic opportunity for WUE estimation on an ecosystem scale, while the hypothesis has yet to be validated and applied for the shorter time scales. An optimized response of canopy conductance to atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in an analytical model inverted from the conductance model has been also challenged. Partitioning transpiration (T) and evaporation (E) is a more complex phenomenon than that stated in the analytic model and needs a more precise remote sensing retrieval algorithm as well as ground validation, which is an opportunity for remote sensing to extrapolate WUE estimation from sites to a regional scale. Although studies on controlling the mechanism of environmental factors have provided an opportunity to improve WUE remote sensing, the mismatch in the spatial and temporal resolution of meteorological products and remote sensing data, as well as the uncertainty of meteorological reanalysis data, add further challenges. Therefore, improving the remote sensing-based methods of GPP and ET, developing high-quality meteorological forcing datasets and building mechanistic remote sensing models directly acting on carbon–water cycle coupling are possible ways to improve WUE remote sensing. Improvement in direct WUE remote sensing methods or remote sensing-driven ecosystem analysis methods can promote a better understanding of the global ecosystem carbon–water coupling mechanisms and vegetation functions–climate feedbacks to serve for the future global carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than 25% of the total energy consumption in Finland has been produced with wood fuels. Since 2012, the share has been greater than that of oil, coal, or natural gas. Internal carbon pricing is used to manage the risks in wood procurement after wood import from Russia ended. Further, the EU announced plans to sell more carbon emission permits to fund the EU's exit from Russian energy. To manage these challenges, a data-driven internal carbon pricing mechanism (DDICPM) has been developed for wood procurement optimization. Particularly, local changes are considered via available information about growth-based carbon sinks (GBCS). The results of the new scenario were compared to the basic national scenario that ensures carbon neutrality in forestry. The DDICPM may provide the optimum wood-procurement operations maintaining carbon neutrality in the integrated energy and material industry (IEMI). In this study, the use of DDICPM increased profitability b 16.2, 16.1, and 16.0% between adapted wood procurement areas at the EU's emission allowance prices of 30, 65, and 98 € t−1 CO2. The experiments' results also revealed that the DDICPM could consistently and significantly outperform the conventional solution adopted by the company in terms of economic costs. A significant conclusion is that an increase in profitability is possible if the size of wood procurement areas is allowed to vary optimally with respect to transport distance to take advantage of the GBCS as a new application of the renewable carbon sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine carbon sink fisheries are an important means of increasing blue carbon sinks and thus achieving carbon neutrality, with numerous environmental and certain economic benefits. However, due to the consideration of costs and benefits, it is clear that whether and how to implement or participate in marine carbon sink fisheries is not a random decision, but a long-term, complex, and dynamic process. Therefore, this paper constructs a mathematical model containing fishery practitioners, research institutions, and government based on the evolutionary game approach, as well as simulates and analyzes the stability of the three parties. The results of the study show that (1) with the guidance of government incentives and penalties, high-quality scientific research results can effectively help fishery practitioners to more effectively develop marine carbon sink fisheries. (2) High regulation may discourage fishery practitioners and research institutions from promoting the development of marine carbon sink fisheries, while additional government funding and guidance can effectively increase the willingness of fishery practitioners and research institutions to implement or participate in marine carbon sink fisheries. In particular, during the early stage, the government's policy guidance should be based on subsidies and funding, supplemented by penalties. (3) To ensure the efficient implementation of marine carbon sink fisheries, relevant entities should also focus on restoring and maintaining marine ecosystems, so their ecological value can create additional benefits to fishery practitioners and convince them to more proactively implement marine carbon sink fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Visualization and quantitative analysis of the global ecological carbon sinks and sources. • Enhance the prediction of carbon sequestration dynamics under climate change. • Climate change potentially affecting the carbon-climate feedback. • Research content is becoming clearer and more systematic. • Keyword clustering the classification of the research into six relatively independent subtopics. Climate change is extensively affecting the global ecosystem, especially the ecosystem carbon sequestration and sequestration potential, which are issues of global concern. The proposed concept of "carbon neutrality" in 2020 has brought ecological carbon sequestration to the forefront. Therefore, the research on climate change and ecosystem carbon sequestration need to be systematically reviewed, summarized, and examined. Based on the Web of Science database, this paper analyzed 4005 articles (1992–2022 year) after rigorous screening via a bibliometrics analysis and then presented the research trends and future research focus of ecological carbon sequestration. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) the research over the last 30 years has steadily improved, and the annual number of publications has increased in a cubic polynomial fashion (R 2 = 0.9937), with 87.57 % of the total publications appearing after 2009. Global Change Biology and Science of the Total Environment are the most influential journals in the field; (2) participation in such research is becoming increasingly common with expanding research areas covering Eurasia, America, Oceania, and Africa. The United States and China are the most productive and influential countries; (3) the diversity of this research is increasing, and the research content is becoming more explicit and systematic. Most research focuses on climate change, carbon sequestration, management, land-use changes, and nitrogen and soil organic carbon; (4) although traditional ecological evaluation techniques were essential early on, remote sensing and modeling have become the primary methods for assessment; (5) keyword clustering allows the classification of the research into six relatively independent subtopics: climate change and terrestrial ecosystems, sequestration and organic-carbon, ecosystem services, nitrogen and carbon cycling, biomass and forest, and blue carbon, which provides a reference for further research on ecological carbon sequestration and carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has proposed to achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2060. It is important for China to clearly understand the carbon sink of ecosystems. Most current studies focus on accounting for the carbon sink or carbon emission in the past and ignore the contribution of ecosystems to carbon neutrality in the future. The work presented in this paper projects land use changes in 2030 and 2060 under the business as usual (BAS), rapid economic development (RED), and ecological land protection (ELP) scenarios based on Multiple Objective Programming and GeoSOS-FLUS and calculates the carbon budgets and contributions of ecosystems to carbon neutrality in Qinghai during 2000–2060. The key findings are that the contributions of the terrestrial ecosystem to carbon neutrality in Qinghai are 9.92% (BAS), 10.03% (ELP) and 7.56% (RED) in 2030, and 3.23% (BAS), 3.28% (ELP) and 2.91% (RED) in 2060. These results indicate that the Qinghai ecosystem has carbon sink potential and the reduction of carbon emissions by humans is the core challenge in achieving carbon neutrality. Therefore, some recommendations have been made: 1) optimizing the land use structure to enhance the ecosystem sink in Qinghai; 2) continuing to implement the policies of ecological protection in Qinghai; 3) reducing the anthropogenic carbon emissions is the key to achieving carbon neutrality in 2060. This study not only offers data support and related policy recommendations to realize carbon neutrality goals but also provides a feasible method for future ecosystem contribution assessments under the goal of carbon neutrality. • Current land use policies in Qinghai are partial to ecological land protection. • Terrestrial ecosystem contributions to carbon neutrality are decreasing. • Terrestrial ecosystem contributions are similar in 2060 under three scenarios. • Carbon emission reduction of social system is key to achieving carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We provide the most up-to-date CO 2 emission inventory for China's cement industry. • We construct the G-LEAP model to project the CO 2 emissions of China's cement industry. • The CO 2 emissions could be reduced maximum by 70 percent in 2060, while the remainder will need to come from technological innovation and new growth horizons. This paper aims to assess the emission reduction potential of combined mitigation technologies in China's cement industry, thus transitioning towards carbon neutrality through a suitable technology portfolio and exploring a low-carbon pathway. The G-LEAP model is constructed for future carbon emission projection, incorporating the cement demand projection and technology application. The pathways based on different technology portfolios are developed to estimate the CO 2 emission trajectory of China's cement industry. We maximize the utilization of currently available technologies and assume a high level of innovative technology diffusion rate in the integrated mitigation pathway to explore the maximum abatement potential of the cement industry. The result shows that short-term mitigation mainly relies on improving energy efficiency and alternative low-carbon fuels, which would contribute 9–12% and 17–22% of the cumulative emissions reduction in the integrated mitigation pathway compared to a frozen scenario. Alternative clinkers can significantly reduce process-related emissions, but the potential is determined by the availability of raw materials, which would contribute 30–39% of the cumulative emission reduction. Post- and oxygen-combustion capture is expected to be deployed by 2030 and contribute about 28–44% to cumulative emission reduction. The technology portfolio in the integrated mitigation pathway would reduce China's cement CO 2 emissions by 63–73% compared to the frozen scenario, and the remainder of CO 2 emission would be 300–400 Mt in 2060, which will need the technological innovation and new growth horizons, such as carbon sink approaches or carbon trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests play a critical role in global carbon cycling, and continuous forest destruction together with other factors has accelerated global warming. Furthermore, continued decline of forest areas will critically hinder the accomplishment of carbon neutrality goals. Although the geographical location of deforestation can now be rapidly and accurately detected with remote sensing technology, current forest change products are still not fine-grained, especially from the perspective of carbon trading. Here, we used a deep learning method to detect deforestation in large regions based on 2 m high-resolution optical remote sensing images. Firstly, we proposed a new deforestation detection dataset, which was generated from 11 provincial regions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone of China, containing a total number of 8330 samples (the size of each sample being 512 × 512 pixels). Then, a new deforestation detection model, SiamHRnet-OCR, was designed, based on this dataset. Compared with other deep learning models, SiamHRnet-OCR achieves better results in terms of precision, F1-score, and OA indicator: 0.6482, 0.6892, and 0.9898, respectively. Finally, two large-scale scenarios of deforestation experiments in Southern China were further tested; the deforestation detection results demonstrate that SiamHRnet-OCR can not only detect deforestation effectively but also capture the accurate boundary of the changing area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to realistically fulfil global and national climate protection targets, all potential measures have to be made use of to a maximum extent. Because it is readily available, biomass energy has been playing a key practical role for decades, supported by the traditional assumption of its carbon neutrality: under sustainable conditions, carbon dioxide emitted during combustion is held to be equal to its absorption during plant growth. In order to clarify conditions of carbon (C) neutrality, it is therefore necessary to model the annual natural C cycle on the entire planet and to include changes caused by a variety of growth strategies for biomass fuels. The "Combined Energy and Biosphere Model" CEBM calculates the cycle of plant growth, decay, biomass fuel production and its combustion on 2433 grid elements worldwide. CEBM results suggest that over many decades, the C pools of litter and especially soil organic carbon (i.e., humus layer) deplete considerably as a consequence of the interrupted natural carbon cycle. Overall, based on this finding, the earlier assumption of "carbon-neutral biomass fuels" is disapproved of in a long-term evaluation and—as a coarse rule of thumb—might be reduced to "half as carbon neutral as previously assumed" (when compared to a current fuel mix). On top of this principal effect, it is well known that life-cycle emissions, indirect or secondary emissions such as energy input related to production, transport and conversion into fuels will still add to this already principally highly incomplete carbon neutrality of biomass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dual-carbon target (i.e., carbon peak and carbon neutrality) has been a critical external factor for the usage of China's fossil energy in the future. As the lowest-carbon fossil energy source, the uncertainty of China's natural gas usage is much higher than that of coal and oil. Thus, a detailed analysis of China's future natural gas consumption (NGC) under the dual-carbon target has attracted great attention from academia. This paper constructs a system dynamics-based forecasting model for China's NGC, and predicts the trends of China's primary energy demand, natural gas demand, and carbon emissions under four scenarios of high-, medium-, low-, and business-as-usual transitions. The low transition scenario, which is in line with the actual situation of China, shows that: (1) primary energy consumption peaks around 2040 at approximately 7 billion tons of standard coal equivalent. (2) Carbon dioxide emissions peak in 2030 at approximately 10.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide, and "net zero" carbon emissions will be achieved in 2057 and 2059 under high and low carbon sinks, respectively. (3) NGC is expected to peak in 2038 at approximately 630 billion cubic meters. (4) Industrial gas is expected to peak around 2035 at approximately 450 billion cubic meters. • We predict medium- and long-term natural gas consumption in China. • We construct a system dynamics model considering the bind of dual-carbon target. • We apply scenario analysis to quantify the intensity of low-carbon transition. • We get results of prediction the peak natural gas consumption in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The Chinese government has made a strategic decision to reach 'carbon neutrality' before 2060. China's terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink is currently offsetting 7–15% of national anthropogenic emissions and has received widespread attention regarding its role in the 'carbon neutrality' strategy. We provide perspectives on this question by inferring from the fundamental principles of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycles. We first elucidate the basic ecological theory that, over the long-term succession of ecosystem without regenerative disturbances, the carbon sink of a given ecosystem will inevitably approach zero as the ecosystem reaches its equilibrium state or climax. In this sense, we argue that the currently observed global terrestrial carbon sink largely emerges from the processes of carbon uptake and release of ecosystem responding to environmental changes and, as such, the carbon sink is never an intrinsic ecosystem function. We further elaborate on the long-term effects of atmospheric CO2 changes and afforestation on China's terrestrial carbon sink: the enhancement of the terrestrial carbon sink by the CO2 fertilization effect will diminish as the growth of the atmospheric CO2 slows down, or completely stops, depending on international efforts to combat climate change, and carbon sinks induced by ecological engineering, such as afforestation, will also decline as forest ecosystems become mature and reach their late-successional stage. We conclude that terrestrial ecosystems have nonetheless an important role to play to gain time for industrial emission reduction during the implementation of the 'carbon neutrality' strategy. In addition, science-based ecological engineering measures including afforestation and forest management could be used to elongate the time of ecosystem carbon sink service. We propose that the terrestrial carbon sink pathway should be optimized, by addressing the questions of 'when' and 'where' to plan afforestation projects, in order to effectively strengthen the terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink and maximize its contribution to the realization of the 'carbon neutrality' strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China announced its national goal to reach the peak of carbon emission by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, during the General Assembly of the United Nations in September 2020. In this context, the potential of the carbon sink in China's terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions has attracted unprecedented attention from scientific communities, policy makers and the public. Here, we reviewed the assessments on China's terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink, with focus on the principles, frameworks and methods of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink estimates, as well as the recent progress and existing problems. Looking forward, we identified critical issues for improving the accuracy and precision of China's terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink, in order to serve the more realistic policy making in pathways to achieve carbon neutrality for China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To explore the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon sinks in state-owned forest regions (SOFRs) and the efficiency of increased carbon sinks, this study used panel data from 19 periods in 40 key SOFRs in Heilongjiang Province from 2001 to 2019. Additionally, combined with geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology, the individual fixed-effect model was used to estimate the number of forest management investment (FMI) lagging periods, and the panel threshold model was used to investigate the differences in the FMI efficiency in various forest regions. From 2001 to 2019, the carbon sink of key SOFRs in Heilongjiang Province showed an upward trend over time, with a growth rate of 20.17%. Spatially, the phenomenon of "increasing as a whole and decreasing in a small area" was found, and the carbon sink of each forest region varied greatly. The standard deviation ellipse of the carbon sink presented a "southeast–northwest" pattern and had "from southeast to northwest" migration characteristics. The FMI amount from 2001 to 2019 showed an upward trend, with a total of CNY 46.745 billion, and varied greatly among forest regions. Additionally, the carbon sink amount in each SOFR affected the FMI efficiency. The threshold of the model was 5,327,211.8707 tons, and the elastic coefficients of the impact of FMI below and above the threshold on the carbon sink were 0.00953 and 0.02175, respectively. The latter's FMI efficiency was 128.23% higher than that of the former. Finally, the increase in FMI to a carbon sink followed the law of diminishing marginal benefits. Therefore, the government should rationally plan the level of FMI in each SOFR to improve the FMI cost-effectiveness and help achieve the goal of "carbon neutrality". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The climate mitigation target of limiting the temperature increase below 2 °C above the pre-industrial levels requires the efforts from all countries. Tracking the trajectory of the land carbon sink efficiency is thus crucial to evaluate the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Here, we define the instantaneous land sink efficiency as the ratio of natural land carbon sinks to emissions from fossil fuel and land-use and land-cover change with a value of 1 indicating carbon neutrality to track its temporal dynamics in the past decades. Results: Land sink efficiency has been decreasing during 1957–1990 because of the increased emissions from fossil fuel. After the effect of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption diminished (after 1994), the land sink efficiency firstly increased before 2009 and then began to decrease again after 2009. This reversal around 2009 is mostly attributed to changes in land sinks in tropical regions in response to climate variations. Conclusions: The decreasing trend of land sink efficiency in recent years reveals greater challenges in climate change mitigation, and that climate impacts on land carbon sinks must be accurately quantified to assess the effectiveness of regional scale climate mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of logging on atmospheric carbon concentrations remains highly contested, especially in the tropics where it is associated to forest degradation. To contribute to this discussion, we estimated the carbon balance from logging natural tropical forests in Costa Rica through a life cycle accounting approach. Our system included all major life cycle processes at a regional level during one rotation period (15 years). We used mass flow analysis to trace biogenic carbon. Data were gathered from all logging operations in the Costa Rican NW region (107 management plants), a sample of industries transforming wood into final products (20 sawmills), and national reports. We estimated a surplus of −3.06 Mg C ha−1 15 year−1 stored within the system. When accounting for uncertainty and variability in a Monte Carlo analysis, the average balance shifted to −2.19 Mg C ha−1 15 year−1 with a 95% CI of −5.26 to 1.86. This confidence interval reveals probabilities of a net increase in atmospheric carbon due to harvesting although these are smaller than those from a system that acts as a reservoir. Our results provide evidence for the carbon neutrality of bio‐materials obtained from natural forests. We found that anthropogenic reservoirs play a determinant role in delaying carbon emissions and that these may explain differences with previous carbon balance studies on tropical forest management. Therefore, the climate mitigation potential of forest‐derived products is not exclusive to forest management, but measures should be considered throughout the processes of wood transformation, use, and disposal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]