Search

Since the 18th National Congress of Chinese Communist Party, ecological civilization construction has been incorporated into Five-sphere Integrated Plan, that is, to promote coordinated progress in the economic, political, cultural, social, and eco-environmental fields. The Chinese government has proposed the goal of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality". Low-carbon transportation becomes the mainstream. To achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality in public transport, this paper takes Beijing's public transport sector as a case study, using system dynamics model with relevant policies and the current situation. It calculates and predicts carbon emissions under electric vehicle substitution scenario, clean energy generation, and carbon capture, utilization and storage scenario for the period of 2020–2060. The following main conclusions are obtained: Direct carbon emissions have peaked and started to decline based on the current measures, while indirect carbon emissions have peaked and started to decline under the suggested intervention. The direct carbon emissions peaked at 2.58005 × 106 tons in 2014. The indirect carbon emissions peaked at 1.59027 × 106 in 2025. They all achieved carbon neutrality under the suggested intervention. Electric vehicle substitution and carbon capture, clean energy generation, utilization and storage are the main factors of carbon emission reduction. The outcomes of this study can provide essential information for policy-makers to advance Beijing's future low-carbon development in public transport. The electric vehicle substitution, clean energy generation and carbon capture, utilization and storage provide a new perspective to research carbon emissions in the transport sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has made remarkable achievements in reducing carbon emissions in recent years. However, there is still much reduction room before achieving carbon neutrality. In Beijing, the capital of China, it is a strategic choice to respond to global climate change by promoting green and low-carbon development. This paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of key industries in Beijing and analyzes the temporal evolution trend of carbon emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions in Beijing before 2030 are predicted based on the grey prediction GM (1,1) and BP neural network model. The effects of factors of carbon dioxide emissions are discussed using the threshold regression model under different economic conditions. The results show that energy consumption intensity, GDP per capita, and the ownership of civil cars have a positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions, while the number of permanent residents and urban green space areas have a negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions. These findings of carbon emission prediction and influencing factors contribute to carbon reduction path design. Related policy implications on carbon emission reduction are put forward from the aspects of promoting industrial upgrading, accelerating the construction of advanced economic structures, optimizing transportation structures, and strengthening green building development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a politically and culturally important city cluster, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (BTH) has huge electricity and water consumption, while the local power generation capacity and water resources may not be sustainable long term according to the current power generation ratio. We introduced up-to-date strategic policies in China, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (dual carbon goals), to assess their impact on environmental protection and economic development. Thus, we constructed a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model to simulate these changes in BTH. We designed four carbon reduction scenarios to explore the impact of policies including carbon taxes, investment, and renewable energy subsidies individually or combined. The findings reveal that implementing these policies together can increase the proportion of renewable energy in power generation to 17.2% (Beijing), 9.4% (Tianjin), and 33.2% (Hebei) by 2060. Under various policy scenarios, the Tax Scenario shows the largest water withdrawal savings, while the Investment Scenario shows the largest GDP growth by 2060. The combined implementation of these policies may minimize the negative impact on the economy while developing an environmentally friendly region. The results of the Combination Scenario are closest to carbon neutrality, narrowing the gap to 10.71%, 9.98%, and 9.85%, respectively. Conservation (water and electricity) and carbon reduction can provide significant support for carbon neutrality and sustainable development strategies. This study contributes to the evaluation of mitigation policies in BTH and provides a concrete policy option to achieve carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]