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Drought has a paramount impact on global agriculture and food security. However, the study on future cropland areas that can incur drought is inadequate. This paper uses input parameters from 7 CMIP6 models for 7 future scenarios (SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP4‐3.4, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) to measure South Asian cropland exposure to drought and its underlying factors. Some defined epochs such as 2021–2040 (near‐term), 2041–2060 (mid‐term), 2081–2100 (long‐term), and 1995–2014 (reference period) are designed to explore diverse outlooks of the change. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and the Run theory methods are applied to detect drought. Results indicate an intensified cropland (under SSP4‐3.4, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) in the Indo‐Gangetic Plain region of South Asia, where mostly the variation occurs among scenarios and periods. Notably, the future cropland exposed to drought will increase in the 2021–2040, and 2041–2060 periods, but it intends to decline during the 2081–2100. Relatively, the exposed cropland will upturn highest by 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term period and decrease by −8.2% (SSP5‐8.5) in the end future. Spatially, distributed cropland in the central, south‐west, and portion of the northeast of South Asia are subjective to be exposed largely, but it can drop greatly across the eastern part by the end future. Importantly, the climate change effect plays a grounding role in future exposure change over the region during the near to mid‐term periods, while the cropland change effect is predominant in the long‐term perspectives. However, these findings signify the urgency of policymaking focusing on drought mitigation to ensure food security. Plain Language Summary: Estimating drought‐induced cropland exposure is the pivotal aspect of agricultural risk assessment for drought impacts. The purposes of this study are to explore (a) how much of the cropland area would be exposed to drought under SSP scenarios; and (b) the degree to which climate change and cropland change effects contribute to changes in exposure. In this regard, we conducted a multi‐model and multi‐scenario‐based analysis to reveal variations in the cropland area exposed to drought in South Asia. Among the seven scenario combinations, the highest percentage of cropland exposed to drought was found at 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term epoch (2041–2060). The climate change effect seems to be the key contributor in the near‐term to mid‐term period, whereas it is the cropland change effect long‐term. To reduce drought risk, we recommend focusing on strong climate change mitigation policy development in the near‐ and mid‐term periods at a global scale and strict land‐use management policy interventions in the long‐term period at the regional level. Key Points: Larger cropland area will experience drought in the 2040–2060 period, while it will decline by the end of 21st centuryThe exposed cropland will increase by 49.2% under SSP3‐7.0 than that of historical timeThe climate change effect is the pivotal contributor in exposure changes over South Asia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Sub-Saharan Africa, climate change is evident due to the frequency of drought cycles. This paper explores the Environmental Education (EE) efforts for reducing the impact of climate change in drought prone Gwanda district, Zimbabwe. The paper focuses on how climate change mitigation and adaptation stakeholders within the community can initiate EE programs which have the potential to be upscaled to macro innovations. A qualitative interpretive case study approach was used with three data generation tools (interviews, a focus group discussion and document analysis).The sample comprised 38 participants. The study was guided by the Sustainable Rural Livelihoods Framework (1998). The study revealed that for EE programmes to be effective, they have to harness local factors. The study found that formal field days, information and skills sharing among neighbours during letsema/lidaba and Indigenous Knowledge Systems were micro innovations with growth potential to build farmers' generative resilience to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local governments have led the way on climate action in the United States. While the federal government has largely stood to the side, local governments have made great efforts to adopt policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A large and robust literature in urban politics has explored the variables that influence local government action on climate change in the United States. Issue severity and resident ideological preferences have been identified as two of the most important factors in local climate action. Governments that are more likely to face major impacts from climate, such as coastal communities, and governments serving more liberal residents have both been found to pursue climate policy at higher rates. In this paper we suggest that these relationships are better understood as conditional. We argue that the effect of issue severity will be moderated by ideology. When residents are liberal, issue severity will matter. When residents are conservative, the impact will be muted. We find strong evidence for this hypothesis. Coastal governments and governments that have experienced drought adopt more climate policies, but this is conditional on the ideology of residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influences of human activity on regional climate over China have been widely reported and drawn great attention from both the scientific community and governments. This paper reviews the evidence of the anthropogenic influence on regional climate over China from the perspectives of surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation, droughts, and surface wind speed, based on studies published since 2018. The reviewed evidence indicates that human activities, including greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, land use and cover change, urbanization, and anthropogenic heat release, have contributed to changes in the SAT trend and the likelihood of regional record-breaking extreme high/low temperature events over China. The anthropogenically forced SAT signal can be detected back to the 1870s in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau region. Although the anthropogenic signal of summer precipitation over China is detectable and anthropogenic forcing has contributed to an increased likelihood of regional record-breaking heavy/low precipitation events, the anthropogenic precipitation signal over China is relatively obscure. Moreover, human activities have also contributed to a decline in surface wind speed, weakening of monsoon precipitation, and an increase in the frequency of droughts and compound extreme climate/weather events over China in recent decades. This review can serve as a reference both for further understanding the causes of regional climate changes over China and for sound decision-making on regional climate mitigation and adaptation. Additionally, a few key or challenging scientific issues associated with the human influence on regional climate changes are discussed in the context of future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction between forest and climate exhibits regional differences due to a variety of biophysical mechanisms. Observational and modeling studies have investigated the impacts of forested and non-forested areas on a single climate variable, but the influences of forest cover change on a combination of temperature and precipitation (e.g., drought) have not been explored, owing to the complex relationship between drought conditions and forests. In this study, we use historical forest and climate datasets to explore the relationship between forest cover fraction and drought from 1992–2018. A set of linear models and an analysis of variance approach are utilized to investigate the effect of forest cover change, precipitation and temperature on droughts across different timescales and climate zones. Our findings reveal that precipitation is the dominant factor (among the three factors) leading to drought in the equatorial, temperate and snow regions, while temperature controls drought in the arid region. The impact of forest cover changes on droughts varies under different precipitation and temperature quantiles. Precipitation modulates forest cover's impact on long-term drought in the arid region, while temperature modulates the impact of forest cover changes on both short- and long-term drought in the arid region as well as only on long-term drought in the temperate region. Forest cover can also modulate the impacts of precipitation and temperature on drought. High forest cover leads to a combined effect of precipitation and temperature on long-term drought in arid and snow regions, while precipitation is the only dominant factor in low forest cover conditions. In contrast, low forest cover triggers a strong combined effect of precipitation and temperature on drought in the temperate region. Our findings improve the understanding of the interaction between land cover change and the climate system and further assist decision-makers to modulate land management strategies in different regions in light of climate change mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the objective of quantifying turbulent heat fluxes in areas with various types of urban land use to improve living and environmental conditions through better urban planning, comparative energy balance measurements using the eddy-covariance (EC) technique were conducted in Oberhausen (Germany) between 15 August 2010 and 15 April 2011. The results of this paper show that the sensible heat flux ( QH) is 20% higher and that the latent heat flux ( QE) is 90% lower at an urban site (URB) compared to a suburban site (SUB). Green spaces in cities counteract the growing thermal stresses on city dwellers and therefore represent a possible urban climate mitigation measure. This positive effect may be reduced or lost entirely during long periods of drought. The Bowen ratio ( QH/ QE) increased from 0.65 to 2.8 with decreasing soil moisture at the SUB, and the monthly average QE value decreased from 94 W m−2 (August 2010, heavy precipitation) to only 47 W m−2 (March 2011, dry period), providing impressive evidence of this relationship. Considering the aspects of urban climate, the creation of urban green spaces can only be effective if an optimum water supply is provided. Furthermore, additional planning recommendations are given for urban planners within cities located at mid-latitudes, as derived from the measured results. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes are significant for societies, economies, and ecosystems worldwide. Such events therefore need to be assessed in the light of anthropogenic climate change so that suitable adaptation measures can be implemented by governments and stakeholders. Here we show a comprehensive analysis of hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes over global land regions using 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models and four future emissions scenarios from 1950 to 2100. Hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes are projected to increase over large parts of the globe by the end of the 21st century. Hot and compound hot‐dry extremes show the most widespread increases and dry extreme changes are sensitive to the index used. Many regional changes depend on the strength of greenhouse‐gas forcing, which highlights the potential to limit the changes with strong mitigation efforts. Plain Language Summary: Heatwaves, drought and their joint occurrences can negatively impact populations, economies, and natural systems worldwide. It is therefore of paramount importance that governments and stakeholders assess the risk from such events and adapt accordingly. In this study we use 25 climate models and four emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100 to assess how hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes are expected to change in the future when compared to current climate conditions. We find that such extremes are projected to increase by the end of the 21st century over large parts of global land areas under the highest‐emission, no‐policy, climate change scenario. Hot and compound hot‐dry extremes show the most widespread increases, whereas dry extreme changes are sensitive and more regionally limited depending on the method by which they are computed. Most of the regional changes in hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes can be reduced with strong climate change mitigation efforts to limit future green‐house gas emissions. Key Points: Hot extremes are projected to increase in frequency and intensity over almost all land areas by the end of the 21st centuryDrought changes depend on measure but increase robustly over central and northern South America, the Mediterranean, and southern AfricaCompound hot and dry extremes are sensitive to the drought measure but projected to increase in most regions globally [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fragmented tropical forest landscapes preserve much of the remaining biodiversity and carbon stocks. Climate change is expected to intensify droughts and increase fire hazard and fire intensities, thereby causing habitat deterioration, and losses of biodiversity and carbon stock losses. Understanding the trajectories that these landscapes may follow under increased climate pressure is imperative for establishing strategies for conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we used a quantitative predictive modelling approach to project the spatial distribution of the aboveground biomass density (AGB) by the end of the 21st century across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF) domain. To develop the models, we used the maximum entropy method with projected climate data to 2100, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 from the fifth Assessment Report. Our AGB models had a satisfactory performance (area under the curve > 0.75 and p value <.05). The models projected a significant increase of 8.5% in the total carbon stock. Overall, the projections indicated that 76.9% of the AF domain would have suitable climatic conditions for increasing biomass by 2100 considering the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the absence of deforestation. Of the existing forest fragments, 34.7% are projected to increase their AGB, while 2.6% are projected to have their AGB reduced by 2100. The regions likely to lose most AGB—up to 40% compared to the baseline—are found between latitudes 13° and 20° south. Overall, although climate change effects on AGB vary latitudinally for the 2071–2100 period under the RCP 4.5 scenario, our model indicates that AGB stocks can potentially increase across a large fraction of the AF. The patterns found here are recommended to be taken into consideration during the planning of restoration efforts, as part of climate change mitigation strategies in the AF and elsewhere in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protecting and enhancing forest carbon sinks is considered a natural solution for mitigating climate change. However, the increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts due to climate change can threaten the stability and growth of existing forest carbon sinks. Extreme droughts weaken plant hydraulic systems, can lead to tree mortality events, and may reduce forest diversity, making forests more vulnerable to subsequent forest disturbances, such as forest fires or pest infestations. Although early warning metrics (EWMs) derived using satellite remote sensing data are now being tested for predicting post-drought plant physiological stress and mortality, applications of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are yet to be explored extensively. Herein, we provide twenty-four prospective approaches classified into five categories: (i) physiological complexities, (ii) site-specific and confounding (abiotic) factors, (iii) interactions with biotic agents, (iv) forest carbon monitoring and optimization, and (v) technological and infrastructural developments, for adoption, future operationalization, and upscaling of UAV-based frameworks for EWM applications. These UAV considerations are paramount as they hold the potential to bridge the gap between field inventory and satellite remote sensing for assessing forest characteristics and their responses to drought conditions, identifying and prioritizing conservation needs of vulnerable and/or high-carbon-efficient tree species for efficient allocation of resources, and optimizing forest carbon management with climate change adaptation and mitigation practices in a timely and cost-effective manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is an extreme climatic event that mostly occurs as a result of low rainfall, which leads to lack of water in various agro-ecological conditions of Pakistan. The condition could be further exacerbated by the prevailing dry weather. Therefore, accurate, timely, and efficient drought monitoring is crucial to ensure that its adverse effects are mitigated. In this study, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and TRMM-based data were used together with remote sensing techniques to improve drought mitigation and disaster risk reduction strategies. In order to monitor drought mitigation and disaster risk reduction strategies in Pakistan, the crop water stress index (CWSI), vegetation condition index (VCI), normalized vegetation supply water index (NVSWI), vegetation health index (VHI), and temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) were chosen as the instrument. Due to low rainfall and significantly low vegetation, CWSI, NDVI, TVDI, and VHI are useful in characterizing drought mitigation strategies in Pakistan. Monthly NDVI, NAP, NVSWI, TVDI, VCI, and VHI values and heat map analysis show that Pakistan suffered from drought in years 2001, 2002, and 2006. Seasonal CWSI, NDVI, VHI, and TVDI confirmed that Pakistan was affected by severe drought in 2001, which continued and led to severe drought in 2002 and 2006. We generate spatial correlation coefficients between NDVI and NVSWI, VCI, and VHI, and NVSWI and VCI and VHI, while the VCI and VHI values are significantly positively correlated. CWSI, NDVI, VHI, and TVDI show positive signs of effective climate change drought mitigation and disaster risk reduction strategies in Pakistan. Thus, these drought indices have been confirmed to be a complete drought monitoring indicator and reduce the risk of drought in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large‐scale bioenergy plays a key role in climate change mitigation scenarios, but its efficacy is uncertain. This study aims to quantify that uncertainty by contrasting the results of three different types of models under the same mitigation scenario (RCP2.6‐SSP2), consistent with a 2°C temperature target. This analysis focuses on a single bioenergy feedstock, Miscanthus × giganteus, and contrasts projections for its yields and environmental effects from an integrated assessment model (IMAGE), a land surface and dynamic global vegetation model tailored to Miscanthus bioenergy (JULES) and a bioenergy crop model (MiscanFor). Under the present climate, JULES, IMAGE and MiscanFor capture the observed magnitude and variability in Miscanthus yields across Europe; yet in the tropics JULES and IMAGE predict high yields, whereas MiscanFor predicts widespread drought‐related diebacks. 2040–2049 projections show there is a rapid scale up of over 200 Mha bioenergy cropping area in the tropics. Resulting biomass yield ranges from 12 (MiscanFor) to 39 (JULES) Gt dry matter over that decade. Change in soil carbon ranges from +0.7 Pg C (MiscanFor) to −2.8 Pg C (JULES), depending on preceding land cover and soil carbon.2090–99 projections show large‐scale biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is projected in Europe. The models agree that <2°C global warming will increase yields in the higher latitudes, but drought stress in the Mediterranean region could produce low yields (MiscanFor), and significant losses of soil carbon (JULES and IMAGE). These results highlight the uncertainty in rapidly scaling‐up biomass energy supply, especially in dry tropical climates and in regions where future climate change could result in drier conditions. This has important policy implications—because prominently used scenarios to limit warming to 'well below 2°C' (including the one explored here) depend upon its effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a major concern in Rajasthan's water-stressed state. Climate change has a direct impact on the water resources in many parts of the state. In comparison to the rest of the country, the state has a larger portion of desert or arid lands (58% of the total geographical area) and limited water resources. Therefore, any adverse climate change conditions will likely have a catastrophic impact on the state's already vulnerable water resource system. Attempts have been made in this study to understand the state's climate conditions and highlight isolated past events that suggest climate change may occur in the state. It is emphasised that climate change modelling for various types of climate is required. To develop optimal water resource management strategies for different zones, cutting-edge tools such as remote sensing and geospatial tools must be used. The study's overarching goal is to comprehend the impact of climate change on the study area's water resources. The study's objectives are as follows: (1) to determine the effects of climate change on the water resources of the study location, (2) to investigate the nature and impact of climate change-induced drought disasters in the study area, (3) to identify methods and strategies for mitigating potential risks and vulnerabilities due to climatic variations and (4) determine the scope of research and policy action in response to identified current and future vulnerabilities, as well as the anticipated effects of climate change. The descriptive study used both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods. A total of 100 respondents were chosen from the villages of Rajasthan's Tonk district for quantitative data collection and 05 in-depth interviews with various stakeholders were conducted for qualitative analysis. The study revealed that indigenous knowledge systems have allowed various communities in the area to live in harmony with their environments for generations and that their traditional knowledge systems are essential tools in environment conservation and natural disaster management. Again, according to the study, the majority of respondents believe that climate change is a cause of drought disasters, which should be addressed through effective participatory research. The qualitative interviews made known themes such as stakeholder participation, climate modelling, the impacts of climate change on key development sectors, adaptation needs, initiatives, opportunities, and so on. The findings imply that climate change is one of the critical reasons for the occurrence of drought disasters in the study area and the state as a whole; drought and climate change have severely impacted water resources. To conclude, the study emphasises the emerging need for research, policy, and action to mitigate the impact of climate change on water resources and related areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a global issue with profound implications worldwide on biodiversity, equal safety, poverty eradication, sustainable development, and social-economic stability due to the significant role that water resources play in the growth of the world economy. Burundi is one of the highly vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change-related events because of its low adaptive capacity and high dependence on rainfed agriculture for livelihood. This research aimed to identify drought incidents and their characteristics in terms of duration, severity, and intensity and analysis of their trends in Burundi using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Monthly precipitation and temperature data of seven meteorological stations across Burundi (1981–2020) were obtained from Burundi Geographical Institute (IGEBU). The SPEI index of -2, -6 and -24 month timescales were generated to understand drought characteristics and the Mann–Kendall (MK) test combined with Sen's slope estimator were utilized to analyze the drought trend based on the calculated SPEI values. The overall analysis of the computed SPEI time series demonstrated that drought is more frequent and severe in Burundi, especially in the northern and eastern parts. The results showed that the most prolonged and severe drought occurred during the 1990–2010 decades, and 1993, 1994, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, and 2016 were extremely dry years. Proactive drought mitigation activities, climate change mitigation and water resources management policy are highly recommended in order to reduce drought risk and its effect on both population and the natural environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rivers and streams, when fully connected to their floodplains, are naturally resilient systems that are increasingly part of the conversation on nature‐based climate solutions. Reconnecting waterways to their floodplains improves water quality and quantity, supports biodiversity and sensitive species conservation, increases flood, drought and fire resiliency, and bolsters carbon sequestration. But, while the importance of river restoration is clear, beaver‐based restoration—for example, strategic coexistence, relocation, and mimicry—remains an underutilized strategy despite ample data demonstrating its efficacy. Climate‐driven disturbances are actively pushing streams into increasingly degraded states, and the window of opportunity for restoration will not stay open forever. Therefore, now is the perfect time to apply the science of beaver‐based low‐tech process‐based stream restoration to support building climate resilience across the landscape. Not every stream will be a good candidate for beaver‐based restoration, but we have the tools to know which ones are. Let us use them. This article is categorized under:Science of Water > Hydrological ProcessesWater and Life > Nature of Freshwater EcosystemsWater and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding of future changes in drought characteristics is crucial for climate change adaptation and drought impact mitigation. We analysed the projected changes in drought characteristics relative to historical drought conditions in Central Asia using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index based on both gridded observations and an ensemble of bias‐corrected and spatially disaggregated global circulation models (GCMs) from phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The results suggest that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are projected to increase across Central Asia. Even though the change in wetness may not be significant and robust, a "dry gets drier and wet gets wetter" pattern may emerge in future under different scenarios. Drought events in Central Asia's semi‐arid and arid regions (aridity index <0.5) are projected to become more frequent (>125%), with longer duration (>55%), higher severity (>74%) and intensity (>8%) by the end of the 21st century under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. In the coming period of 2021–2050, Central Asia is expected to have more drought events with a longer duration but lower intensity. Comparisons between different SSP scenarios stress the importance of climate change mitigation strategies to avoid more drought occurrence, longer drought duration and higher drought severity. The long‐term mitigation and adaptation studies for increasing drought impacts are also imperative in Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioenergy is considered a promising alternative to achieve carbon neutrality and emission reduction. There is a debate over the role of bioenergy in climate change mitigation because of carbon emissions from the production and utilization of biofuels. Recently, studies on emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have substantially increased as they have a significant impact on human health and climate change due to large emissions and high reactivity. A scientometric analysis of 2895 journal papers during 1991 and 2020 related to BVOC emissions from the Web of Science Core Collection was conducted by CiteSpace and Carrot2. Results showed that three main knowledge domains were BVOC emissions and drivers, BVOCs and their oxidation products in biosphere-atmosphere exchange, and soil BVOCs in plant-microbe interactions during the period under study. Generally, the relationships between plant BVOC emissions and environmental variables (e.g., temperature, drought, light solar radiation, humidity, availability of nutrients, carbon dioxide, ozone, etc.) can be investigated by measurement techniques (i.e., chamber) or models (i.e., Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature). Soils could work as both the sink and source of BVOCs through various processes that are affected by soil temperatures, pH, organic matter, and moisture. Anthropogenic activities might affect the emission of BVOCs and promote the formation of BVOC-derived pollutants (e.g., ozone, particles, etc.). Incorporating BVOC emissions and their relationships with pollutants, biomass, and energy into environmental management and decision-making is a promising direction. [Display omitted] • A scientometric analysis was conducted on the research evolution of BVOC emissions. • Ten clusters generated by CiteSpace were logically reclassified into three hotspots. • MEGAN is the most frequently empirical model for BVOC emission assessment. • BVOC-derived pollutants like SOA are likely affected by anthropogenic activities. • Soils in terrestrial ecosystems can act as both the source and sink of BVOCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stress factors such as climate change and drought may switch the role of temperate peatlands from carbon dioxide (CO2) sinks to sources, leading to positive feedback to global climate change. Water level management has been regarded as an important climate change mitigation strategy as it can sustain the natural net CO2 sink function of a peatland. Little is known about how resilient peatlands are in the face of future climate change scenarios, as well as how effectively water level management can sustain the CO2 sink function to mitigate global warming. The authors assess the effect of climate change on CO2 exchange of south Swedish temperate peatlands, which were either unmanaged or subject to water level regulation. Climate chamber simulations were conducted using experimental peatland mesocosms exposed to current and future representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). The results showed that all managed and unmanaged systems under future climate scenarios could serve as CO2 sinks throughout the experimental period. However, the 2018 extreme drought caused the unmanaged mesocosms under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 switch from a net CO2 sink to a source during summer. Surprisingly, the unmanaged mesocosms under RCP 2.6 benefited from the warmer climate, and served as the best sink among the other unmanaged systems. Water level management had the greatest effect on the CO2 sink function under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, which improved their CO2 sink capability up to six and two times, respectively. Under the current climate scenario, water level management had a negative effect on the CO2 sink function, and it had almost no effect under RCP 2.6. Therefore, the researchers conclude that water level management is necessary for RCP 8.5, beneficial for RCP 4.5 and unimportant for RCP 2.6 and the current climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a changing climate, drought has become a common natural disaster. In our study, population exposure to drought over the Pearl River Basin (PRB) under climate change is investigated. Drought frequency is evaluated through the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The data needed for SPEI calculation are obtained based on the ensemble of multiple global climate model (GCM) outputs. Population exposure to drought for the future is assessed by combining drought frequency under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three downscaled population scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3). Moreover, the main contribution (and their interactions) of GCM, RCP, and SSP to the sources of uncertainty on population exposure projections is explored through multilevel factorial analysis. Results indicate that the temperature and precipitation would continually increase for the future, and the increase in drought frequency is more substantial during the 2080s than in the 2050s. Meanwhile, population exposure to drought accounts for 21.60% of the total population in 1976–2005 over the PRB area. During the 2050s, it would decrease to 11.98–12.28% under RCP4.5 and 14.15–14.40% under RCP8.5, respectively. By the 2080s, population exposure would slightly reduce under RCP4.5 and increase to 28.86–29.44% under RCP8.5. GCM is the primary uncertainty source of drought exposure in the 2050s, with contribution rates of 72.41%, 57.47%, 51.10%, and 78.71% to the four responses. In comparison, by the 2080s, RCP is the primary contributing factor, with contribution rates of 53.91%, 44.92%, 64.20%, and 48.00%, respectively. Plain Language Summary: Climate change has an extensive impact on future drought conditions in the Pearl River Basin. Therefore, the projection of population exposure to drought is essential for making informed decisions toward climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study aims at exploring the changes in population exposure to droughts (e.g., moderate, severe, and extreme) under multiple emission‐population scenarios and quantifying the main contribution (and their interactions) of global climate model (GCM), RCP, and SSP to the sources of uncertainty on population exposure. The temperature and precipitation would continually increase for the future, and the increase in drought frequency is more substantial during the 2080s than in the 2050s. As a result, future population exposure to moderate, severe, and extreme drought would decrease in the 2050s, under two RCPs. While during the 2080s, there is a slight decrease under RCP4.5 and an apparent increase under RCP8.5. GCM is the primary uncertainty source of drought exposure in the 2050s to the four responses. In comparison, by the 2080s, RCP is the major contributing factor. Key Points: Population exposure to drought for the future is projected through the combination of multiple emission‐population scenariosPopulation exposure to drought would increase apparently in the 2080s under RCP8.5Global climate model (GCM) and RCP are the primary uncertainty sources of drought exposure in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological droughts have large impacts on society and the environment. A better understanding and quantification of their occurrences can be highly relevant for the development of proper climate change mitigation, adaptation and resilience strategies. Here we examine meteorological droughts from observed data covering the 1971–2000 period for the Fulda catchment in Germany by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index. The joint dependency of drought duration and severity is modelled by a copula function, which relates their univariate distributions in a functional relationship. Recurrence intervals are further calculated as a function of the joint relationship and univariate marginals. Future projections are investigated in which downscaled EURO‐CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections for the period 2021–2050 are used together with the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, in order to analyse and compare future joint patterns of duration and severity of events. We find that drought duration and severity present a clear interdependency supporting the choice of a bivariate model. Results suggest substantial differences in the future joint relationship duration–severity. Depending on the RCM and RCP, drought patterns show different magnitude of changes in the future. The projected changes are different for the different returns periods. RCP8.5 shows more severe events and longer drought durations than RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The uncertainties of the projected patterns also depend on the RCP and RCM and are larger for higher return periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The disproportional impacts of climate change on rural women are undisputable. Climate change impacts that manifest through droughts, heat waves, floods, scarcity of water and depletion of the natural resource base are becoming more precarious in the lives and livelihoods of rural women. This study aims to delineate factors hampering the participation of rural women in the climate change discourse in the Vhembe District, Limpopo, South Africa. The study adopted the qualitative methodology guided by a multi-case study design. A sample of 24 participants was selected through multistage sampling techniques. Rural women and social workers participated in the study. The data were collected using focus group discussions and semi-structured individual interviews and were analysed thematically. The study established that rural women in the Vhembe District are not participating in climate change decisionmaking processes, especially when it comes to community level politics where climate change-related decisions are made. Furthermore, the pervasive patriarchal dominance in the district discriminates against women and prevents them from acquiring land and property rights as well as adequate information about climate change adaptation and mitigation. The low social status of women is reducing their efforts to participate in the climate change discourse despite their perennial vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. These challenges faced by rural women in the climate change discourse are a cause for concern for the social work profession which is premised on enhancing human wellbeing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2008 the South African National Disaster Management Centre commissioned a study into measures taken by local municipalities to plan for climate change. Two areas were selected for their dissimilar climatic challenges: the //Khara Hais Municipality,1 a semi-desert area in the Northern Cape Province plagued by droughts and severe weather events, and the George Municipality, an area in the Western Cape Province plagued by droughts, the rising sea level and flash floods. It was found that despite South African laws and regulations requiring local government to take action to reduce the risk of disasters, planning for climate change is still no more than sophisticated rhetoric in the two municipalities. This lack of urgency can be ascribed to local municipalities having other more pressing developmental priorities. It would, however, be short-sighted of municipalities not to plan for climate change, as major setbacks in hard-won economic and social development follow a disaster. 1The // spelling represents the click consonant in the Kxoe language that the name comes from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki///Khara_Hais_Local_Municipality [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The important aspect of changing hydro-climatic extremes is addressed in studies examining projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms associated with snowmelt across Canada, and historical and projected changes to severe Canadian Prairie droughts. The earth has vast amounts of surface and sub-surface freshwater in the form of lakes, reservoirs, rivers, wetlands, soil water, groundwater, as well as water stored in snowpacks, glaciers, and permafrost. Hydro-climatic extremes such as floods and droughts have significant impacts on freshwater availability and are projected to increase in frequency as the result of climate change. Summary of This Special Issue This special issue includes two invited critical reviews related to hydro-climatic processes associated with freshwater availability. [Extracted from the article]

The uncertainty of drought forecasting based on past meteorological data is increasing because of climate change. However, agricultural droughts, associated with food resources and determined by soil moisture, must be predicted several months ahead for timely resource allocation. Accordingly, we designed a severe drought area prediction (SDAP) model for short-term drought without meteorological data. The predictions of our proposed SDAP model indicate a forecast of serious drought areas assuming non-rainfall, not a probability prediction of drought occurrence. Furthermore, this prediction provides more practical information to help with rapid water allocation during a real drought. The model structure using remote sensing data consists of two parts. First, the drought function f(x) from the training area by random forest (RF) learned the changes in the pattern of soil moisture index (SMI) from the past drought and the training performance was found to be root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.052, mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.039, R2 = 0.91. Second, derived f(x) predicted the SMI of the study area, which is 20 times larger than the training area, of the same season of another year as RMSE = 0.382, MAE = 0.375, R2 = 0.58. We also obtained the variable importance stemming from RF and discussed its meaning along with the advantages and limitations of the model, training areas selection, and prediction coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]