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Changing pathways of soil moisture loss, either directly from soil (evaporation) or indirectly through vegetation (transpiration), are an indicator of ecosystem and land hydrological cycle responses to the changing climate. Based on the ratio of transpiration to evaporation, this paper investigates soil moisture loss pathway changes across China using five reanalysis-type datasets for the past and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections for the future. The results show that across China, the ratio of vegetation transpiration to soil evaporation has generally increased across vegetated land areas, except in grasslands and croplands in north China. During 1981–2014, there was an increase by 51.4 percentage points (pps, p < 0.01) on average according to the reanalyses and by 42.7 pps according to 13 CMIP6 models. The CMIP6 projections suggest that the holistic increasing trend will continue into the twenty-first century at a rate of 40.8 pps for SSP585, 30.6 pps for SSP245, and −1.0 pps for SSP126 shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios for the period 2015–2100 relative to 1981–2014. Major contributions come from the increases in vegetation transpiration over the semiarid and subhumid grasslands, croplands, and forestlands under the influence of increasing temperatures and prolonged growing seasons (with twin peaks in May and October). The future increasing vegetation transpiration ratio in soil moisture loss implies the potential of regional greening across China under global warming and the risks of intensifying land surface dryness and altering the coupling between soil moisture and climate in regions with water-limited ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The periodicities of the climate change have long been explored by researchers not only because they reflect the inherent characteristics of the climate systems, but also because they are the foundations of climate-change predictability. This paper reports the periodicities of the hydroclimate variations reconstructed from a lacustrine sequence at Tiancun section (TC section) in the Luoyang Basin within the Central Plains of China and the sequence covers the first half of the Holocene. Our reconstruction shows that the hydroclimate variations at the TC section during the period from ∼10,135 and ∼ 5890 cal. yr BP were well corresponding with the effective soil moisture variations recorded by the stalagmite δ13C sequence at the Magou Cave. This corresponding relationship suggests that when the effective soil moisture increases (i.e., more negative δ13C values), the ratio of evaporation over precipitation in the paleolake at the TC section decreased, resulting in lower CaCO 3 content. It also suggests that when the effective soil moisture increases, more inflowing water entered the paleolake, resulting in coarser sediments. Our reconstruction also shows that the hydroclimate variations or lake level variations in the Luoyang Basin were characterized by millennial-scale quasi-periodicities that were most likely paced by the changes in ITCZ (Inter-tropical Convergent Zone) position and also by alterations in ENSO-like phase. And, both (ITCZ and ENSO) were most likely regulated by the solar activity. Our further analysis shows that the hydroclimate in the Luoyang Basin also experienced centennial-scale variations. Specifically, the grain size data express the following cycles: 692-year, 538-year, 217-year, 170-year and 123-year, all at the 99% confidence level. And, the CaCO 3 content data express the following cycles: 202-year, 184-year, 169-year and 85-year, all at the 99% confidence level. These cycles are approximately coincident with the widely-reported solar-activity cycles. • This paper reports the periodicities of the hydroclimate variations reconstructed from a lacustrine sequence in the Central Plains of China and the sequence covers the first half of the Holocene. • The hydroclimate variations were primarily paced by changes in ITCZ position and also by alterations in ENSO-like phase. And, both (ITCZ and ENSO) were most likely regulated by solar activity. • The centennial-scale hydroclimate variations were approximately coincident with the widely-reported solar-activity cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability in soil moisture has implications for regional terrestrial environments under a warming climate. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal variability in the intra-annual persistence of soil moisture in China using the fifthgeneration reanalysis dataset by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for the period 1979-2018. The results show that in China, the mean intra-annual persistence in the humid to arid zones increased from 60 to 115 days in the lower layer but decreased from 19 to 13 days and from 25 to 14 days in the upper and root layers, respectively. However, these changes were strongly attenuated in extremely dry and wet regions due to the scarcity of soil moisture anomalies. Large changes in persistence occurred in the lower soil layer in dryland areas, with a mean difference of up to 40 days between the 2010s and the 1980s. Overall increasing trends dominated the large-scale spatial features, despite regional decreases in the eastern arid zone and the North and Northeast China plains. In the root layer, the two plains experienced an expanded decrease while on the Tibetan Plateau it was dominated by decadal variability. These contrasting changes between the lower and root layers along the periphery of the transition zone was a reflection of the enhanced soil hydrological cycle in the root layer. The enhanced persistence in drylands lower layer is an indication of the intensified impacts of soil moisture anomalies (e.g., droughts) on terrestrial water cycle. These findings may help the understanding of climate change impacts on terrestrial environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a detailed analysis of how future climate change may affect water availability in a typical arid endorheic river basin, the Heihe River basin (HRB), in northwest China. The analysis is based on the improved Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data from the upper HRB and is used to predict future hydrological responses. Six general circulation models (GCMs), under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), are downscaled to construct future climate change scenarios. The results suggest that the climate of the upper HRB will likely become warmer and wetter in the near future (2021-50), with the largest increase in precipitation occurring in the summer. Correspondingly, the basinwide evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are projected to increase over the same period. The mean temperature in the near future is projected to rise, relative to the recent 30 years (1981-2010), by 1.2°-1.7°C under scenario RCP4.5 and by 1.4°-2.1°C under scenario RCP8.5. The mean precipitation is projected to increase by 10.0%-16.6% under scenario RCP4.5, and by 10.5%-22.0% under scenario RCP8.5. The mean values of evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are expected to increase by 14.2%, 4.3%, and 11.4%, respectively, under scenario RCP4.5 and to increase by 18.7%, 5.8%, and 12.8%, respectively, under scenario RCP8.5. Though the model simulations forecast an increase in streamflows in the headwater region of the HRB, future water availability varies significantly over space and time. The findings of this study will help to frame more effective water management strategies for the HRB under changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of climate change on terrestrial wet and dry changes and the relationship between the two is of great significance to the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems. The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC) is an area that is sensitive to climate change, suffering from perennial drought and a clear aridification trend. Unlike previous single-factor, single-timescale studies, we identified aridification in the region based on a dataset established by remote sensing and ground-based monitoring stations from a combination of two perspectives: climate and soil. The results show that, in terms of climate, the period from 2000 to 2019 was the driest in the region during the last 120 years , and the summer drought was the most severe and shifted from a summer to spring drought; in terms of soil, the soil aridification trend in the region was severe, with 16.1% of the areas becoming significantly drier (P < 0.1) among the years and 41.6% in spring, respectively. Similar to climate change, soils exhibited recessive aridification due to the counterbalancing effect of the dry and wet seasons within the year. Then the coupling relationship between climate change and soil aridification was established in time and space. Moreover, the spatiotemporal response patterns of both were obtained. The results showed that the frequency of soil drought under meteorological drought conditions showed an increasing trend and that the sensitivity of soil drought occurrence increased. Among them, the effect of precipitation on relative soil moisture (RSM) was immediate, and the effect of prolonged warming on RSM is greater. The area of soil aridification that was caused by climatic aridification in spring accounted for 13.7% of the entire area. The regional aridification research mode proposed in this paper can provide ideas for subsequent studies. [Display omitted] • A comprehensive judgment mode of the regional aridification combining climate elements, soil moisture was established. • Over the last 20 years, the central part of the FPENC showed overall warming and wetting of the climate. • Over the last 20 years, the trend of the soil aridification in the central part of the FPENC remained severe. • The counterbalancing effect of the dry and wet seasons leads to recessive aridification. • The sensitivity of the occurrences of soil drought to the climate drought anomalies continuously became stronger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of climate change on terrestrial wet and dry changes and the relationship between the two is of great significance to the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems. The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC) is an area that is sensitive to climate change, suffering from perennial drought and a clear aridification trend. Unlike previous single-factor, single-timescale studies, we identified aridification in the region based on a dataset established by remote sensing and ground-based monitoring stations from a combination of two perspectives: climate and soil. The results show that, in terms of climate, the period from 2000 to 2019 was the driest in the region during the last 120 years , and the summer drought was the most severe and shifted from a summer to spring drought; in terms of soil, the soil aridification trend in the region was severe, with 16.1% of the areas becoming significantly drier (P < 0.1) among the years and 41.6% in spring, respectively. Similar to climate change, soils exhibited recessive aridification due to the counterbalancing effect of the dry and wet seasons within the year. Then the coupling relationship between climate change and soil aridification was established in time and space. Moreover, the spatiotemporal response patterns of both were obtained. The results showed that the frequency of soil drought under meteorological drought conditions showed an increasing trend and that the sensitivity of soil drought occurrence increased. Among them, the effect of precipitation on relative soil moisture (RSM) was immediate, and the effect of prolonged warming on RSM is greater. The area of soil aridification that was caused by climatic aridification in spring accounted for 13.7% of the entire area. The regional aridification research mode proposed in this paper can provide ideas for subsequent studies. [Display omitted] • A comprehensive judgment mode of the regional aridification combining climate elements, soil moisture was established. • Over the last 20 years, the central part of the FPENC showed overall warming and wetting of the climate. • Over the last 20 years, the trend of the soil aridification in the central part of the FPENC remained severe. • The counterbalancing effect of the dry and wet seasons leads to recessive aridification. • The sensitivity of the occurrences of soil drought to the climate drought anomalies continuously became stronger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The hydrological cycle has been substantially influenced by climate change and human activities. It is therefore of utmost importance to analyze the impact of climate change on hydrology, particularly on a regional scale, in order to understand potential future changes of water resources and water-related disaster, and provide support for regional water management. However, during the evaluation of climate change impact on hydrology or water resources, large uncertainty exists. In this paper, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to investigate the potential impact of climate change on hydrology of the upper reaches of Qiantang River Basin, East China, for the future period 2011–2100. The uncertainty is considered by employing upgraded reliability ensemble averaged GCM climate projections under three emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for three different stages of the future period. These projections are downscaled and used in the hydrological model. Impact of climate change on precipitation, potential evapotranspiraton and river runoff is then investigated. The model calibration and validation outcomes show reasonable performance of the SWAT model. The final results suggest that annual river runoff will likely decrease almost under all emission scenarios and time stages of the future period. Particularly, at Jinhua Station, substantial decrease of annual river runoff can be noticed, indicating less water resource possibly available for the region in future. Simulated monthly patterns show that the largest decrease will likely occur in winter while increases will occur in summer, implying possible more water-related disasters in this region. However, it is also noticed that the change signs/amount could be different under different emission scenarios and time stages, indicating large uncertainty involved in the impact analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A long series of highly accurate soil moisture data was combined. • SWDI was improved and extended to the monthly scaled drought index. • Temporal features of SWDI were characterized in four geographical regions. • The relationship among drought indexes (SPI, SWDI and VCI) was explored. Drought monitoring and assessment are of great importance due to the costly damage caused by drought. Datasets, drought indexes and drought relationships are three critical areas of drought research. Satellite-retrieved soil moisture (SM) products derived from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) show application potential in drought monitoring. However, the products are missing certain data in some areas. The model-assimilated SM product derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) was used to supplement these missing data. The main goals of this paper are to characterize agricultural drought after the utility and applicability of the combined SM product and the monthly scaled soil water deficit index (SWDI) have been evaluated and to investigate the relationships among meteorological, agricultural and vegetation droughts. First, we provided a long series of highly accurate SM products through simple calculations. The drought index, SWDI, was extended to a monthly scale for long-term drought analysis by using the combined SM product. The probability of detection (POD) between the SWDI and in situ drought records performed fairly well. Half of the 566 stations had PODs higher than 0.9, and one-third of these stations had POD values equal to 1. Through correlation analysis and grey incidence analysis (GIA) between the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and SWDI, we found that the propagation time from meteorological drought to agricultural drought was shorter under drier conditions than wetter conditions, and at the regional scale, the response time ranged from 1 month to 2.5 months. Correlation analysis between the SWDI and vegetation condition index (VCI) indicated that there was no delay effect from agricultural to vegetation drought on a monthly scale in most parts of China except in several provinces distributed in the South; additionally, there was a significant time lag in forests, while grassland and agriculture were more inclined to have no time lag or the response time was less than 1 month. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]