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Elucidating demographic history during the settlement of ecological communities is crucial for properly inferring the mechanisms that shape patterns of species diversity and their persistence through time. Here, we used genomic data and coalescent-based approaches to elucidate for the first time the demographic dynamics associated with the settlement by endemic reef fish fauna of one of the most remote peripheral islands of the Pacific Ocean, Rapa Nui (Easter Island). We compared the demographic history of nine endemic species in order to explore their demographic responses to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations. We found that species endemic to Rapa Nui share a common demographic history, as signatures of population expansions were retrieved for almost all of the species studied here, and synchronous demographic expansions initiated during the last glacial period were recovered for more than half of the studied species. These results suggest that eustatic fluctuations associated with Milankovitch cycles have played a central role in species demographic histories and in the final stage of the community assembly of many Rapa Nui reef fishes. Specifically, sea level lowstands resulted in the maximum reef habitat extension for Rapa Nui endemic species; we discuss the potential role of seamounts in allowing endemic species to cope with Pleistocene climatic fluctuations, and we highlight the importance of local historical processes over regional ones. Overall, our results shed light on the mechanisms by which endemism arises and is maintained in peripheral reef fish fauna., (© 2020 The Authors. Molecular Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems are the major coastal upwelling regions. The trade winds are driving these upwelling regimes located in the subtropics at the eastern boundary of the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. Here we analyse the impact of the external climate forcing, e.g. the greenhouse gas concentration, solar activity and volcano eruptions, on these upwelling systems in simulations of ensembles of two Earth System Models. The ensembles contain three simulations for each time period which cover the past millennium (900-1850), the 20th century (1850-2005) and the near future (2006-2100). Using a set of simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, enables us to detect whether the variability is driven internally or externally. Our analysis shows that the variability of the simulated upwelling is to the most driven internally and that there are no significant trends except for the scenario with the most dramatic increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oxygen-deficient waters in the ocean, generally referred to as oxygen minimum zones (OMZ), are expected to expand as a consequence of global climate change. Poor oxygenation is promoting microbial loss of inorganic nitrogen (N) and increasing release of sediment-bound phosphate (P) into the water column. These intermediate water masses, nutrient-loaded but with an N deficit relative to the canonical N : P Redfield ratio of 16 : 1, are transported via coastal upwelling into the euphotic zone. To test the impact of nutrient supply and nutrient stoichiometry on production, partitioning and elemental composition of phytoplankton-derived dissolved (DOC, DON, DOP) and particulate (POC, PON, POP) organic matter, three nutrient enrichment experiments were conducted with natural phytoplankton communities in shipboard mesocosms, during research cruises in the tropical waters of the South East Pacific and the North East Atlantic. Maximum accumulation of POC and PON was observed under high N supply conditions, indicating that primary production was controlled by N availability. The stoichiometry of photoautotrophic biomass was unaffected by nutrient N : P supply during exponential growth under nutrient saturation, while it was highly variable under conditions of nutrient limitation and closely correlated to the N : P supply ratio, although PON : POP of accumulated phytoplankton generally exceeded the supply ratio. Phytoplankton N : P composition was constrained by a general lower limit of 5 : 1. Channelling of assimilated P into DOP appears to be the mechanism responsible for the consistent offset of cellular stoichiometry relative to inorganic nutrient supply and nutrient drawdown, as DOP build-up was observed to intensify under decreasing N : P supply. Low nutrient N : P conditions in coastal upwelling areas overlying O2-deficient waters seem to represent a net source for DOP, which may stimulate growth of diazotrophic phytoplankton. These results demonstrate that microalgal nutrient assimilation and partitioning of phytoplankton-derived organic matter between the particulate and the dissolved phase are controlled by the N : P ratio of upwelled nutrients, implying substantial consequences for nutrient cycling and organic matter pools in the course of decreasing nutrient N : P stoichiometry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a research study of the Galápagos Island and its effect on the El Nião-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is considered as one of the climate oscillations on Earth. The researchers used an ocean general circulating model and a hybrid coupled model of the tropical Pacific Ocean to examine the effects of the Galápagos Island on ENSO. Results such as the shift lead by the island in the ENSO period from biennial to quasi-quadrinneal are presented. Also, further studies in relation to the subject are encouraged.

We analyze simulations of the Pacific Ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) from 11 Earth System model contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, focusing on the mean state and climate change projections. The simulations tend to overestimate the volume of the OMZs, especially in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Compared to observations, five models introduce incorrect meridional asymmetries in the distribution of oxygen including larger southern OMZ and weaker northern OMZ, due to interhemispheric biases in intermediate water mass ventilation. Seven models show too deep an extent of the tropical hypoxia compared to observations, stemming from a deficient equatorial ventilation in the upper ocean combined with a too large biologically-driven downward flux of particulate organic carbon at depth, caused by too high particle export from the euphotic layer and too weak remineralization in the upper ocean. At interannual timescales, the dynamics of oxygen in the eastern tropical Pacific OMZ is dominated by biological consumption and linked to natural variability in the Walker circulation. However, under the climate change scenario RCP8.5, all simulations yield small and discrepant changes in oxygen concentration at mid depths in the tropical Pacific by the end of the 21st century due to an almost perfect compensation between warming-related decrease in oxygen saturation and decrease in biological oxygen utilization. Climate change projections are at odds with recent observations that show decreasing oxygen levels at mid depths in the tropical Pacific. Out of the OMZs, all the CMIP5 models predict a decrease of oxygen over most of the surface, deep and high latitudes ocean due to an overall slow-down of ventilation and increased temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean deoxygenation has been observed in all major ocean basins over the past 50 yr. Although this signal is largely consistent with oxygen changes expected from anthropogenic climate change, the contribution of external forcing to recent deoxygenation trends relative to natural internal variability is yet to be established. Here we conduct a formal optimal fingerprinting analysis to investigate if external forcing has had a detectable influence on observed dissolved oxygen concentration ([O2]) changes between ~ 1970 and ~ 1992 using simulations from two Earth System Models (MPIESM- LR and HadGEM2-ES). We detect a response to external forcing at a 90% confidence level and find that observed [O2] changes are inconsistent with internal variability as simulated by models. This result is robust in the global ocean for depth-averaged (1-D) zonal mean patterns of [O2] change in both models. Further analysis with the MPI-ESM-LR model shows similar positive detection results for depth-resolved (2-D) zonal mean [O2] changes globally and for the Pacific Ocean individually. Observed oxygen changes in the Atlantic Ocean are indistinguishable from natural internal variability. Simulations from both models consistently underestimate the amplitude of historical [O2] changes in response to external forcing, suggesting that model projections for future ocean deoxygenation may also be underestimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long considered on the margins, far from the major cultural traditions, the Sechura Desert is situated at the crossroads between the cultures of southern Ecuador and those of the northern Peruvian coast and preserves a large number of varied archaeological sites. Despite this evidence, little is known about the societies that inhabited this region during the Holocene. Exposed to natural hazards, including El Niño events, and to major climatic changes, they were able to adapt and exploit the scarce resources that this extreme environment offered them. Because of this rich history, we have been conducting archaeological research in this region since 2012 in order to clarify the dynamics of human occupation and their links with climate oscillations and environmental changes. This paper present the results of a multidisciplinary study of Huaca Grande, a mound located on Nunura Bay, 300 m from the Pacific Ocean. The nature of the human occupations at Huaca Grande was varied, and several adjustments occurred over time. The subsistence economy was based mainly on local marine resources and a continual use of terrestrial vegetal resources. However, a major change occurred in the more recent occupations, with the apparition of non-local resources (maize and cotton) indicating that Huaca Grande was connected to trade networks. The results show two main phases of occupation separated by a long abandonment (mid-5th century CE to mid-7th century CE and mid-13th century to mid-15th century CE). The occupation of the site appears to have been influenced by changes in the local climate and by extreme El Niño events. Our results highlight the great adaptability of these human groups over the span of a millennium and their capacity to react to the climatic changes and hazards that characterise this region., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Villa et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Surface seawater 134Cs and 137Cs samples were collected in the central and western North Pacific Ocean during the 1.5 yr after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident to monitor dispersion patterns of these radioisotopes towards the Hawaiian Islands. In the absence of other recent sources and due to its short half-life only those parts of the Pacific Ocean would have detectable 134Cs that were impacted by Fukushima releases. Between March and May 2011, 134Cs was not detected around the Hawaiian Islands and Guam. Here, most 137Cs activities (1.2-1.5 Bqm-3) were in the range of expected preexisting levels. Some samples north of the Hawaiian Islands (1.6-1.8 Bqm-3) were elevated above the 18-month baseline established in surface seawater in Hawaii indicating that those might carry atmospheric fallout. The 18-month time-series analysis of surface seawater from Hawaii did not reveal any seasonal variability or trends, with an average activity of 1.46±0.06 Bqm-3 (Station Aloha, 17 values). In contrast, samples collected between Japan and Hawaii contained 134Cs activities in the range of 1-4 Bqm-3 and 137Cs levels were about 2-3 times above the pre-existing activities. We found that the southern boundary of the Kuroshio and Kuroshio extension currents represented a boundary for radiation dispersion with higher activities detected within and north of the major currents. The radiation plume has not been detected over the past 1.5 yr at the main Hawaiian Islands due to the transport patterns across the Kuroshio and Kuroshio extension currents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise is a key feature in a warmer world and its impact can be seen globally. Assessing climate change-induced sea level rise, therefore, is urgently needed particularly in small island nations, where the threats of sea level rise are immediate, but the level of preparedness is low. Here, we propose a stochastic simulator to link changes in Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) to Mean Annual Sea Level (MASEL) at the local scale. This is through what-if scenarios that are developed based on the association between local temperature and sea level. The model can provide a basis for a bottom-up impact assessment by addressing limitations of applying large-scale projections in small islands and facilitating the accessibility of the impact assessment to stakeholders. For this purpose, we decompose the MAT and MASEL signals into their linear trend and autocorrelation components as well as independent and identically distributed residual terms. We further explore the association between trend and residual terms of MAT and MASEL. If such dependencies exist, scenarios of sea level can be synthesized based on the trend and residual terms of temperature. We use linear regression to link trends of MAT and MASEL, and copulas to formulate dependencies between residuals. This allows stochastic sampling of MASEL conditioned to trend and random variability in MAT. This framework is used for retrospective and prospective simulations of MASEL in Nouméa, the capital city of New Caledonia, the Pacific. We set up six different model configurations for developing the stochastic sampler, each including various parametric options. By selecting the best setup from each configuration, we provide a multi-model stochastic projection of MASEL, assuming the persistence in current long-term trend in MAT and MASEL. We demonstrate how such simulations can be used for a risk-based impact assessments and discuss sources of uncertainty in future projections., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strongly influence atmospheric circulation and the Earth's climate, which in turn significantly affects vegetation productivity. Most of the previous studies on the subject have focused on links between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and vegetation productivity, but few studies have addressed the effects of West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) on that although the early stages of the ENSO phenomenon may first develop there. In this paper, we use the mean SST values in the WPWP to construct a climate index, known as the WPWP index (WPI), and study the impacts of the WPWP on global vegetation productivity. We provide evidence for a robust link among the alternating warm and cool WPI pattern, terrestrial vegetation productivity and carbon balance. The analysis is based on both satellite observations and model simulations. The results of this study show that the warm and cool WPWP phases have inverse effects on land surface temperature and precipitation. A warm (cool) WPWP is associated with a warmer (cooler) climate on global land surfaces as well as a drier (wetter) climate in southern hemisphere, and hence enhances (suppresses) vegetation productivity in the latitudes of approximately 10-70°N and suppresses (enhances) vegetation growth in the latitudes of approximately 10-30°S. The underlying mechanism is also discussed. The WPI serves as a meaningful climate index for studying the ocean-vegetation teleconnections., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Most of the annual rainfall over India occurs during the Southwest (June-September) and Northeast (October-December) monsoon periods. In March 2008, however, Southern peninsular India and Sri Lanka received the largest rainfall anomaly on record since 1979, with amplitude comparable to summer-monsoon interannual anomalies. This anomalous rainfall appeared to be modulated at intraseasonal timescale by the Madden Julian Oscillation, and was synchronous with a decaying La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean. Was this a coincidence or indicative of a teleconnection pattern? In this paper, we explore factors controlling rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka between January and April, i.e. outside of the southwest and northeast monsoons. This period accounts for 20% of annual precipitation over Sri Lanka and 10% over the southern Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Interannual variability is strong (about 40% of the January-April climatology). Intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over southern India and Sri Lanka are significantly associated with equatorial eastward propagation, characteristic of the Madden Julian Oscillation. At the interannual timescale, we find a clear connection with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); with El Niños being associated with decreased rainfall (correlation of −0.46 significant at the 98% level). There is also a significant link with local SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean, and in particular with the inter-hemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Indian Ocean (with colder SST south of the equator being conducive to more rainfall, correlation of 0.55 significant at the 99% level). La Niñas/cold SSTs south of the equator tend to have a larger impact than El Niños. We discuss two possible mechanisms that could explain these statistical relationships: (1) subsidence over southern India remotely forced by Pacific SST anomalies; (2) impact of ENSO-forced regional Indian Ocean SST anomalies on convection. However, the length of the observational record does not allow distinguishing between these two mechanisms in a statistically significant manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims at identifying oceanic regions outside the tropical Pacific, which may influence the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through interannual modulation of equatorial Pacific winds. An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) 7-members ensemble experiment forced by climatological sea surface temperature (hereafter, SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean and observed interannually varying SST elsewhere produces ensemble-mean equatorial zonal wind stress interannual anomalies (ZWSA) over the equatorial Pacific. These ZWSA are largest during boreal winter in the western Pacific, and induce a ~0.5 °C response in the central Pacific during the following spring in a simple ocean model, that weakly but significantly correlates with the following ENSO peak amplitude. When correlated with global SST, the residual western equatorial Pacific ZWSA yield SST patterns that are reminiscent of ENSO teleconnections in the Indian, North and South Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans. We further design 20-members ensemble sensitivity experiments forced by typical SST patterns of the main climate modes for each of these regions, in order to identify regions that influence equatorial Pacific ZWSA most. In our experiments, only the Indian Ocean Basin-wide SST warming in late boreal winter produces a statistically significant ZWSA in the western equatorial Pacific, resulting in a weak but significant ~0.35 °C SST response in the central Pacific (i.e. ~35 % of the observed standard deviation) during the following spring, the season when the Bjerkness coupled feedback is particularly efficient. This paper hence agrees with previous studies, which suggest that ENSO-induced basin-wide SST signals in the Indian Ocean may contribute to the phase transition of ENSO. Our results suggest that studies exploring external influences on ENSO should adopt a global approach rather than focus on a specific region. Designing coupled model simulations would also allow investigating air-sea interactions-mediated teleconnection mechanisms, which we can't reproduce in our forced AGCM framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite decades of efforts and improvements in the representation of processes as well as in model resolution, current global climate models still suffer from a set of important, systematic biases in sea surface temperature (SST), not much different from the previous generation of climate models. Many studies have looked at errors in the wind field, cloud representation or oceanic upwelling in coupled models to explain the SST errors. In this paper we highlight the relationship between latent heat flux (LH) biases in forced atmospheric simulations and the SST biases models develop in coupled mode, at the scale of the entire intertropical domain. By analyzing 22 pairs of forced atmospheric and coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations from the CMIP5 database, we show a systematic, negative correlation between the spatial patterns of these two biases. This link between forced and coupled bias patterns is also confirmed by two sets of dedicated sensitivity experiments with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model. The analysis of the sources of the atmospheric LH bias pattern reveals that the near-surface wind speed bias dominates the zonal structure of the LH bias and that the near-surface relative humidity dominates the east-west contrasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing concern about the effects of large-scale oceanic atmospheric climate variability, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), on regional hydrology and water resources. In this paper, the effects of PDO on temporal patterns of winter (January–March) flow in northwestern North America (NWNA), which is believed to be a PDO-sensitive region, is studied for the period 1943–2007 using daily streamflow data from a much larger set of 179 stations, compared to previous studies in which only smaller subsets of these stations were analyzed. Time series of winter flows were divided into two nonoverlapping blocks corresponding to change points detected in time series of December–March mean monthly PDO indices. Both parametric and nonparametric measures of correlation and average percentage differences and average standardized differences from the period-of-record mean were explored. Like some of the previous studies, it is found that, on average, winter flows tend to be higher (lower) during the warm (cold) phase of the PDO and that establishes the physical link between large-scale climate variability and basin response. It is shown that the serial structure of time series of PDO indices conforms to that of a stochastic process with long-term persistence (LTP). Based on this finding and the climate–streamflow physical link, it is plausible to investigate temporal variations in winter flows with the LTP hypothesis, in addition to assuming merely independence (IND) or short-term persistence (STP). The results of the analysis demonstrate that the LTP mechanism, in combination with the STP, is able to explain more than half of the significant trends noted, with the IND assumption suggesting that the significance of trends reported in previous studies in NWNA may have been overstated. This result has important implications for future planning of regional water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant interannual El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENSO signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, an ENSO-removal method is developed through which the ENSO signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations are isolated at mid- and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalysis datasets. This paper addresses the long-term global warming trend (GW); a companion paper concentrates on Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV). The warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4 K in the twentieth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8 K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with the GW trend is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets, especially in the tightly coupled dynamics and water vapor fields. The dynamics fields based on NCEP–NCAR, which show a change in the Walker Circulation, are consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However, intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in ERA-40 instead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most significant factors currently affecting the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) population are climate change and consequent changes in sea-ice morphology and dynamics. This paper integrates recent physical sea-ice change in the Bering Sea with biological and ecological conditions of walruses in their winter-spring reproductive habitat. Historically, walrus in winter-spring depended on a critical mass of sea-ice habitat to optimize social networking, reproductive fitness, feeding behavior, migration, and energetic efficiency. During 2003-2013, our cross-disciplinary, multiscale analysis from shipboard observations, satellite imagery, and ice-floe tracking, reinforced by information from indigenous subsistence hunters, documented change of sea-ice structure from a plastic continuum to a "mixing bowl" of ice floes moving more independently. This fragmentation of winter habitat preconditions the walrus population toward dispersal mortality and will also negatively affect the availability of resources for indigenous communities. We urge an expanded research and management agenda that integrates walrus natural history and habitat more completely with changing sea-ice morphology and dynamics at multiple scales, while also meeting the needs of local communities.

This paper presents a supply-and-demand model for the fisheries sector developed to assess the effect of climate change and related adaptation strategies in four Pacific coral triangle (CT) countries—Fiji, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, and Vanuatu. The modeling approach used in this paper represents climate change in terms of supply shocks, and works out its economic consequences using the microeconomic tools of supply and demand. The analysis has considered three time periods: current (represented by the average data of the three most recent available years 2006–2009), medium term (2035), and long term (2050). The study covers all fisheries and aquaculture species, grouped into six key subsectors: tuna, other oceanic finfish, coastal finfish, coastal invertebrates, freshwater finfish, and freshwater invertebrates. Results of the baseline model indicate that with rising per capita income and population, fish demand is expected to increase substantially up to 2050. In contrast to significant growth in fish demand, growth in domestic fish production is projected to be slow due to climate change and other constraints. There is a strong likelihood that many Pacific countries will become large net importers of fish under the baseline scenario (i.e., without implementing climate change adaptation strategies). Likewise, per capita consumption of domestically produced fish is projected to decline under the baseline scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the data from three long-term observation stations, Aburatsu, Xiamen, and Hong Kong, which are located on the northwest Pacific Ocean coast, were analyzed to estimate the 100-year annual maximum water levels. The performances of four common frequency analysis methods, namely the Gumbel, Weibull, GEV, and GPD distributions, were evaluated. It is found that the GEV model performs best among these four distribution models in Hong Kong and Aburatsu, whereas the Gumbel distribution is the best at the Xiamen station. It is also found that the GEV model generally performs better than the Gumbel model in regard to the mean high correlation coefficient and the mean minimum root-mean-square error. Moreover, in this study, the r-largest value model was used to study temporal trends in the 50-year annual maximum water levels on the northwest Pacific coast over the past fifty years using the observation data of Hong Kong, Xiamen, and Aburatsu. The results show that there are two temporal features in the 50-year return levels at all three stations, with the first being an overall increasing trend over the whole period and the other being an oscillatory trend over the period of observation. The relationships between the temporal trends and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), sea level rise, and change of typhoons were also analyzed in this paper. It is found that when the PDO index is shifted to be 4 years in advance, a significantly negative correlation will occur between the PDO index and the 50-year return levels. However, sea level rise and changes of typhoons cause the overall increase over the entire period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the newly available decade-long Argo data for the period 2004-13, a detailed study is carried out on deriving four-dimensional (4D) modality of sea temperature in the upper ocean with emphasis on its interannual variability in terms of amplitude, phase, and periodicity. Three principal modes with central periodicities at 19.2, 33.8, and 50.3 months have been identified, and their relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated, yielding a number of useful results and conclusions: 1) A striking tick-shaped pipe-like feature of interannual variability maxima, which is named the 'Niño pipe' in this paper, has been revealed within the 10°S-10°N upper Pacific Ocean. 2) The pipe core extends downward from ~50 m at 130°E to ~250 m near the date line before tilting upward to the sea surface at about 275°E, coinciding nicely with the pathway of the Pacific equatorial undercurrent (EUC). 3) The double-peak zonal modality pattern of the Niño pipe in the upper Pacific is echoed in the subsurface Atlantic and Indian Oceans through Walker circulation, while its single-peak meridional modality pattern is mirrored in the subsurface North and South Pacific through Hadley circulation. 4) A coherent three-peak modal structure implies a strong coupling between sea level variability at the surface and sea temperature variability around the thermocline. Accumulating evidence suggests that Rossby/Kelvin wave dynamics in tandem with EUC-based thermocline dynamics are the main mechanisms of the three-mode Niño pipe in ENSO cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A hybrid coupled model (HCM) is constructed for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related modeling studies over almost the entire Pacific basin. An ocean general circulation model is coupled to a statistical atmospheric model for interannual wind stress anomalies to represent their dominant coupling with sea surface temperatures. In addition, various relevant forcing and feedback processes exist in the region and can affect ENSO in a significant way; their effects are simply represented using historical data and are incorporated into the HCM, including stochastic forcing of atmospheric winds, and feedbacks associated with freshwater flux, ocean biology-induced heating (OBH), and tropical instability waves (TIWs). In addition to its computational efficiency, the advantages of making use of such an HCM enable these related forcing and feedback processes to be represented individually or collectively, allowing their modulating effects on ENSO to be examined in a clean and clear way. In this paper, examples are given to illustrate the ability of the HCM to depict the mean ocean state, the circulation pathways connecting the subtropics and tropics in the western Pacific, and interannual variability associated with ENSO. As satellite data are taken to parameterize processes that are not explicitly represented in the HCM, this work also demonstrates an innovative method of using remotely sensed data for climate modeling. Further model applications related with ENSO modulations by extratropical influences and by various forcings and feedbacks will be presented in Part II of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding of past climate variability on millennial to decadal scales are of primary importance in order to assess modern processes and predict future climatic events. Past history of Arctic climate changes is currently receiving increasing attention due to the recent phenomena of rapid sea-ice reduction. In this paper, we thoroughly reviewed the Holocene history of spatiotemporal climatic changes in the western Arctic region in order to better understand recent rapid environmental changes occurring in the Pacific sector of the Arctic, and further to discuss critical issues and new perspectives on the western Arctic in terms of paleoclimate researches. Records of temporal and spatial variations in sea-ice extents as well as marine and terrestrial paleoclimatic proxies show a strong asynchronicity between the western and eastern Arctic throughout the Holocene. The reason for this apparent contradiction across the Arctic may be linked to freshwater discharges over the Arctic shelves and the inflow of the Pacific freshwater into the western Arctic Ocean in coupled with a complex interaction between atmospheric and sea-ice dynamics. Special emphasis is placed on a tentative linkage of the late Holocene paleoclimatic events between the Arctic regions and the northwestern Pacific margin, highlighting the notion that climatic events of the northern Pacific Ocean is closely linked to the global climate system through hydrological dynamics in the western Arctic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the tropical oceans simulated by three versions of the Flexible Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model (FGOALS-g1.0, FGOALS-g2 and FGOALSs2), which have participated in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), are presented in this paper. The seasonal cycle of SST in the tropical Pacific is realistically reproduced by FGOALS-g2 and FGOALSs2, while it is poorly simulated in FGOALS-g1.0. Three feedback mechanisms responsible for the SST annual cycle in the eastern Pacific are evaluated. The ocean-atmosphere dynamic feedback, which is successfully reproduced by both FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2, plays a key role in determining the SST annual cycle, while the overestimated stratus cloud-SST feedback amplifies the annual cycle in FGOALS-s2. Because of the serious warm bias existing in FGOALS-g1.0, the ocean-atmosphere dynamic feedback is greatly underestimated in FGOALS-g1.0, in which the SST annual cycle is mainly driven by surface solar radiation. FGOALS-g1.0 simulates much stronger ENSO events than observed, whereas FGOALS-g2 and FGOALSs2 successfully simulate the observed ENSO amplitude and period and positive asymmetry, but with less strength. Further ENSO feedback analyses suggest that surface solar radiation feedback is principally responsible for the overestimated ENSO amplitude in FGOALS-g1.0. Both FGOALS-g1.0 and FGOALS-s2 can simulate two different types of El Ni-no events - with maximum SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific (EP) or in the central Pacific (CP) - but FGOALS-g2 is only able to simulate EP El Ni-no, because the negative cloud shortwave forcing feedback by FGOALS-g2 is much stronger than observed in the central Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The typical atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over the southeast (SE) Pacific Ocean is featured with a strong temperature inversion and a sharp moisture gradient across the ABL top. The strong moisture and temperature gradients result in a sharp refractivity gradient that can be precisely detected by the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) measurements. In this paper, the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere & Climate (COSMIC) GPS RO soundings, radiosondes and the high-resolution ECMWF analysis over the SE Pacific are analyzed. COSMIC RO is able to detect a wide range of ABL height variations (1-2 km) as observed from the radiosondes. However, the ECMWF analysis systematically underestimates the ABL heights. The sharp refractivity gradient at the ABL top frequently exceeds the critical refraction (e.g., -157 N-unit km-1) and becomes the so-called ducting condition, which results in a systematic RO refractivity bias (or called N-bias) inside the ABL. Simulation study based on radiosonde profiles reveals the magnitudes of the N-biases are vertical resolution dependent. The N-bias is also the primary cause of the systematically smaller refractivity gradient (rarely exceeding -110 N-unit km-1) at the ABL top from RO measurement. However, the N-bias seems not affect the ABL height detection. Instead, the very large RO bending angle and the sharp refractivity gradient due to ducting allow reliable detection of the ABL height from GPS RO. The seasonal mean climatology of ABL heights derived from a nine-month composite of COSMIC RO soundings over the SE Pacific reveals significant differences from the ECMWF analysis. Both show an increase of ABL height from the shallow stratocumulus near the coast to a much higher trade wind inversion further off the coast. However, COSMIC RO shows an overall deeper ABL and reveals different locations of the minimum and maximum ABL heights as compared to the ECMWF analysis. At low latitudes, despite the decreasing number of COSMIC RO soundings and the lower percentage of soundings that penetrate into the lowest 500-m above the mean-sea-level, there are small sampling errors in the mean ABL height climatology. The difference of ABL height climatology between COSMIC RO and ECMWF analysis over SE Pacific is significant and requires further studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, lead-time and spatial dependence in skill for prediction of monthly mean climate variability is analyzed. The analysis is based on a set of extensive hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The skill characteristics of initialized predictions is also compared with the AMIP simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature (SST) to quantify the role of initial versus boundary conditions in the prediction of monthly means. The analysis is for prediction of monthly mean SST, precipitation, and 200-hPa height. The results show a rapid decay in skill with lead time for the atmospheric variables in the extratropical latitudes. Further, after a lead-time of approximately 30-40 days, the skill of monthly mean prediction is essentially a boundary forced problem, with SST anomalies in the tropical central/eastern Pacific playing a dominant role. Because of the larger contribution from the atmospheric internal variability to monthly time-averages (compared to seasonal averages), skill for monthly mean prediction associated with boundary forcing is also lower. The analysis indicates that the prospects of skillful prediction of monthly means may remain a challenging problem, and may be limited by inherent limits in predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of climate variability in determining the fluctuations of fish populations had been a traditional problem in ecology. In this paper, we studied the role of the Southern Oscillation Index (SO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the population dynamics of the western stock of the skipjack tuna Katsuwonus pelamis. Our analysis was based in three sequential steeps: a diagnostic approach to deduce what kind of population dynamic model should be more appropriate, the modelling of capture per unit of effort data through a logistic model, and the use of population dynamic theory for analyzing the effect of exogenous perturbations. We find that direct and one-year lagged negative PDO effects and one-year lagged negative SO effects were needed to explain annual tuna fluctuations. Models including the combined effects of these climatic indexes explain 80% of the variance in tuna fluctuations. In addition, these models provided very accurate predictions of independent skipjack tuna observed dynamics. This result is encouraging because the inherent variability in CPUE data and the not well determined link between climate and ecological processes. Finally, this study demonstrates that simple models can offer reasonable explanations and accurate predictions of tuna fluctuations, provided they are based on a sound theoretical framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper a detailed global climatology of wind-sea and swell parameters, based on the 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) wave reanalysis is presented. The spatial pattern of the swell dominance of the earth''s oceans, in terms of the wave field energy balance and wave field characteristics, is also investigated. Statistical analysis shows that the global ocean is strongly dominated by swell waves. The interannual variability of the wind-sea and swell significant wave heights, and how they are related to the resultant significant wave height, is analyzed over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. The leading modes of variability of wind sea and swell demonstrate noticeable differences, particularly in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. During the Northern Hemisphere winter, a strong north--south swell propagation pattern is observed in the Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant secular increases in the wind-sea and swell significant wave heights are found in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important question in assessing twentieth-century climate change is to what extent have ENSO-related variations contributed to the observed trends. Isolating such contributions is challenging for several reasons, including ambiguities arising from how ENSO itself is defined. In particular, defining ENSO in terms of a single index and ENSO-related variations in terms of regressions on that index, as done in many previous studies, can lead to wrong conclusions. This paper argues that ENSO is best viewed not as a number but as an evolving dynamical process for this purpose. Specifically, ENSO is identified with the four dynamical eigenvectors of tropical SST evolution that are most important in the observed evolution of ENSO events. This definition is used to isolate the ENSO-related component of global SST variations on a month-by-month basis in the 136-yr (1871–2006) Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST). The analysis shows that previously identified multidecadal variations in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans all have substantial ENSO components. The long-term warming trends over these oceans are also found to have appreciable ENSO components, in some instances up to 40% of the total trend. The ENSO-unrelated component of 5-yr average SST variations, obtained by removing the ENSO-related component, is interpreted as a combination of anthropogenic, naturally forced, and internally generated coherent multidecadal variations. The following two surprising aspects of these ENSO-unrelated variations are emphasized: 1) a strong cooling trend in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and 2) a nearly zonally symmetric multidecadal tropical–extratropical seesaw that has amplified in recent decades. The latter has played a major role in modulating SSTs over the Indian Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A variety of observational and modeling studies show that changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) can induce rapid global-scale climate change. In particular, a substantially weakened AMOC leads to a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in both the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. However, the simulated amplitudes of the AMOC-induced tropical climate change differ substantially among different models. In this paper, the sensitivity to cloud feedback of the climate response to a change in the AMOC is studied using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model [the GFDL Coupled Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1)]. Without cloud feedback, the simulated AMOC-induced climate change in this model is weakened substantially. Low-cloud feedback has a strong amplifying impact on the tropical ITCZ shift in this model, whereas the effects of high-cloud feedback are weaker. It is concluded that cloud feedback is an important contributor to the uncertainty in the global response to AMOC changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the authors' explanation of the items raised by those who comment on the manuscript entitled "Joint Effect of the Western and Eastern Pacific Warm Pools on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle." The authors describe ENSO as one of the most important interannual climate signals that involve air-sea interaction, redistribution of mass, and heat in the Pacific upper ocean. They explain that warm pools are the pileup of the warmest Pacific seawater that are characterized by the displacement of isotherm.

This paper describes the first use of a stochastic cyclone model (SCM) to quantify the extreme significant wave height from tropical cyclones across the Southwest Pacific Ocean. The median extreme significant wave heights across the entire SW Pacific Ocean were 7.5, 10 and 11 m for annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of 0.1, 0.02 and 0.01 respectively. Maximum significant wave heights in the region were approximately 1.5 times these values for the same AEP. Tables of extreme significant wave heights are provided for selected inhabited locations. The SCM was used to quantify the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme significant wave heights, and also the effects of projected climate change on cyclone intensity and frequency of occurrence. West of the International Dateline in the region of the Vanuatu archipelago, the extreme cyclone wave climate was relatively consistent during all phases of the ENSO cycle, but highest during El Niño. Cyclone formation and propagation eastward of the Dateline are more likely to occur during El Niño conditions, however these cyclones tended to be more intense, particularly during extreme El Niño events, leading to a higher long-term extreme wave climate in the eastern SW Pacific, despite the relatively low cyclone observation rate there. Simulations of climate change cyclone intensity increases of 10–20% of the most intense cyclones (categories 4 and 5) along with 10–20% reduction in number of cyclones indicated little change in extreme significant wave heights for low-occurrence AEPs of 1/20 or less. These changes were much less than induced by present-day ENSO variability, suggesting that future changes in extreme wave climate will be sensitive to climate change influences on the frequency and intensity of ENSO events. These results are significant in the light of indications that the frequency of extreme El Nino events might double in response to greenhouse warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Most attempts to link seabirds and climate/oceanographic effects have concerned the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans with comparatively few studies in the tropical Indian Ocean. This paper examines the reproductive response of the lesser noddy Anous tenuirostris to temporal fluctuations in oceanographic and climatic conditions using 8 years of monitoring data from Aride Island (Seychelles), tropical Western Indian Ocean. We tested the hypothesis that breeding parameters (mean hatching date, mean egg size, hatching and fledging successes) and chick growth are influenced by local, seasonal oceanographic conditions as expressed by ocean primary productivity (surface chlorophyll-a concentrations; CC), sea surface temperature (SST) and wind speed. We also examined the relationship between lesser noddy breeding parameters and climate conditions recorded at the basin-wide scale of the Indian Ocean (Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index, DMI). Our findings suggest that birds had a tendency to lay slightly larger eggs during breeding seasons (years) with higher CC during April–June (pre-laying, laying and incubation periods). Hatching date was positively related to SST in April–June, with the regression parameters suggesting that each 0.5 °C increase in SST meant a delay of approx.10 days in hatching date. A negative linear relationship was also apparent between hatching success and SST in June–August (hatching and chick-rearing periods), while the quadratic regression models detected a significant effect of wind speed in June–August on fledging success. Body mass increments of growing chicks averaged over 7-day periods were positively related with (2-week) lagged CC values and negatively related with (2-week) lagged SST values. No significant relationship between DMI and lesser noddy breeding parameters was found, but DMI indices were strongly correlated with local SST. Altogether, our results indicate that the reproduction of this top marine predator is dictated by fluctuations in local environmental conditions around the colony, while the effects of large-scale oceanographic processes (DMI) on our study population might be mediated by an effect on local SST. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is an important component of the upper cell of the global overturning circulation that provides a low-latitude pathway for warm, fresh waters from the Pacific to enter the Indian Ocean. Variability and changes of the ITF have significant impacts on Indo-Pacific oceanography and global climate. In this paper, the observed features of the ITF and its interannual to decadal variability are reviewed, and processes that influence the centennial change of the ITF under the influence of the global warming are discussed. The ITF flows across a region that comprises the intersection of two ocean waveguides—those of the equatorial Pacific and equatorial Indian Ocean. The ITF geostrophic transport is stronger during La Niñas and weaker during El Niños due to the influences through the Pacific waveguide. The Indian Ocean wind variability associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in many years offsets the Pacific ENSO influences on the ITF geostrophic transport during the developing and mature phases of El Niño and La Niña through the Indian Ocean waveguide, due to the co-varying IOD variability with ENSO. Decadal and multi-decadal changes of the geostrophic ITF transport have been revealed: there was a weakening change from the mid-1970s climate regime shift followed by a strengthening trend of about 1Sv every 10 year during 1984–2013. These decadal changes are mostly due to the ITF responses to decadal variations of the trade winds in the Pacific. Thus, Godfrey’s Island Rule, as well as other ITF proxies, appears to be able to quantify decadal variations of the ITF. Climate models project a weakening trend of the ITF under the global warming. Both climate models and downscaled ocean model show that this ITF weakening is not directly associated with the changes of the trade winds in the Pacific into the future, and the reduction of deep upwelling in the Pacific basin is mainly responsible for the ITF weakening. There is a need to amend the Island Rule to take into account the contributions from the overturning circulation which the current ITF proxies fail to capture. The implication of a weakened ITF on the Indo-Pacific Ocean circulation still needs to be assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper discusses large-scale climate variability for several marine ecosystems and suggests types of ecosystem responses to climate change. Our analysis of observations and model results for the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans concludes that most climate variability is accounted for by the combination of intermittent 1–2 year duration events, e.g. the cumulative effect of monthly weather anomalies or the more organized El Niño/La Niña, plus broad-band “red noise” intrinsic variability operating at decadal and longer timescales. While ocean processes such as heat storage and lags due to ocean circulation provide some multi-year memory to the climate system, basic understanding of the mechanisms resulting in observed large decadal variability is lacking and forces the adoption of a “stochastic or red noise” conceptual model of low frequency variability at the present time. Thus we conclude that decadal events with rapid shifts and major departures from climatic means will occur, but their timing cannot be forecast. The responses to climate by biological systems are diverse in character because intervening processes introduce a variety of amplifications, time lags, feedbacks, and non-linearities. Decadal ecosystem variability can involve a variety of climate to ecosystem transfer functions. These can be expected to convert red noise of the physical system to redder (lower frequency) noise of the biological response, but can also convert climatic red noise to more abrupt and discontinuous biological shifts, transient climatic disturbance to prolonged ecosystem recovery, and perhaps transient disturbance to sustained ecosystem regimes. All of these ecosystem response characteristics are likely to be active for at least some locations and time periods, leading to a mix of slow fluctuations, prolonged trends, and step-like changes in ecosystems and fish populations in response to climate change. Climate variables such as temperatures and winds can have strong teleconnections (large spatial covariability) within individual ocean basins, but between-basin teleconnections, and potential climate-driven biological synchrony over several decades, are usually much weaker and a highly intermittent function of the conditions prevailing at the time within the adjoining basins. As noted in the recent IPCC 4th Assessment Report, a warming trend of ocean surface layers and loss of regional sea ice is likely before 2030, due to addition of greenhouse gases. Combined with large continuing natural climate variability, this will stress ecosystems in ways that they have not encountered for at least 100s of years. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change impacts in large marine ecosystems (LMEs) are driven by global climate variability, often communicated over large distances by atmospheric teleconnections, and modified by the dominant local and regional ocean processes. The focus of this paper is to summarize the key processes and features that characterize the major coastal LMEs of the Pacific, as part of a greater effort to understand the role of past and future global climate change in driving (possibly synchronous) fluctuations in marine populations. The physical setting of five LMEs – the Humboldt Current System (HCS), California Current System (CCS), Gulf of Alaska (GOA), Kuroshio Current System (KCS), and Oyashio Current System (OCS) – and the mechanisms and impacts of climate variability on these systems are described. Because of their pivotal role in linking and perhaps synchronizing climate variability in disparate LMEs, we also review teleconnections and analyze past global atmospheric teleconnections and regional ocean response patterns. The major Pacific eastern boundary current systems, the CCS and HCS, feature similar dominant processes (e.g., coastal upwelling), and share atmospheric forcing from common teleconnection patterns that vary together. Sea level pressure variations forcing the KCS and OCS systems on climate scales, however, are not strongly teleconnected to the CCS and HCS. A common factor analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) within these ecosystems provides an example of how LMEs have responded to past climate variability. All LMEs display a persistent warming tendency since 1900, with multi-decadal fluctuations superimposed. However, SST fluctuations in the western Pacific lag those in the east by about a decade. Global synchrony in climate forcing is modulated by distinct processes within each LME, which reduce the correlation between long-term fluctuations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper presents an analysis of 40 years of measurements of geographic location (longitude, latitude) and power (wind speed) of tropical storms and typhoons over South-East Asia seas, mainly the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea. The results demonstrate the growing intensity of duration of the most severe events. The analysis includes singular spectrum analysis of wind speed series in the period 1960–2000 to identify two sub-periods of roughly similar behavior. Then, the recorded events and occurrences are classified statistically. The most extreme ones from the 1st and 2nd sub-period are plotted as functions of their geographic co-ordinates to assess the spatial evolution of their location. Next, the escalating power and mostly duration of the most extreme typhoons are examined with extreme probability distributions to quantify the resulting climate change consequences in the studied region. Finally, all results are reiterated in the form of conclusions and suggestions for potential follow-up research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As part of a project comparing the structure and function of four marine ecosystems off Norway and the United States, this paper examines the oceanographic responses to climate forcing, with emphasis on recent changes. The four Northern Hemisphere ecosystems include two in the Pacific Ocean (Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska) and two in the Atlantic Ocean (Georges Bank/Gulf of Maine and the Barents/Norwegian Seas). Air temperatures, wind forcing and heat fluxes over the four regions are compared as well as ocean hydrography and sea-ice conditions where seasonal sea ice is found. The long-term interannual variability in air temperatures, winds and net heat fluxes show strong similarity between adjacent ecosystems and within subregions of an ecosystem, but no significant correlations between Pacific and Atlantic ecosystems and few across the Atlantic. In spite of the lack of correlation between climate forcing and ocean conditions between most of the ecosystems, recent years have seen record or near record highs in air and sea temperatures in all ecosystems. The apparent causes of the warming differ. In the Atlantic, they appear to be due to advection, while in the Pacific temperatures are more closely linked to air-sea heat exchanges. Advection is also responsible for the observed changes in salinity in the Atlantic ecosystems (generally increasing salinity in the Barents and Norwegian Seas and decreasing in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank) while salinity changes in the Gulf of Alaska are largely related to increased local runoff. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Several studies show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important factor in determining interannual rainfall variability in South America. This signal is detected in the region including Northeastern Argentina, Uruguay and part of southern Brazil, in the form of excessive rains and big floods in the regional rivers. To check that this relationship was similar in the past the objectives of this paper were to construct a time series of large floods in the Paraná River region from documentary records, during the sixteenth to eighteenth centuries, and to evaluate the relationship between that historical record of extreme floods, the ENSO documentary evidence (Ortlieb, The Documented Historical Record of El Niño Events in Perú: An Update of the Quinn Record (Ortlieb, sixteenth through nineteenth centuries, Diaz and Markgraf, (eds.), El Niño and the southern oscillation. Multiscale variability and global and regional Impacts. Cambridge University Press, pp. 207-295, 2001; Quinn and Neal, The historical record of El Niño events, Bradley and Jones (eds.), Climate since a.d. 1500, Routledges, pp. 623-648, 1992) and the temperature index of the Pacific Ocean (Mann ME et al., Global temperature patterns in past centuries: an interactive presentation, IGBP pages/world data center for paleoclimatology data contribution series #2000-075. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA, 2000). Considering that the period 1904-2000, where 11 out of 16 floods occurred during El Niño events, it can be concluded that the proportion of years with exceptional flow volume in the Paraná River in years with El Niño events in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries was relatively lower than that of the twentieth century. The reason for this difference is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The PICES CCCC (North Pacific Marine Science Organization, Climate Change and Carrying Capacity program) MODEL Task Team achieved a consensus on the structure of a prototype lower trophic level ecosystem model for the North Pacific Ocean, and named it the North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography, “NEMURO”. Through an extensive dialog between modelers, plankton biologists and oceanographers, an extensive review was conducted to define NEMURO''s process equations and their parameter values for distinct geographic regions. We present in this paper the formulation, structure and governing equations of NEMURO as well as examples to illustrate its behavior. NEMURO has eleven state variables: nitrate, ammonium, small and large phytoplankton biomass, small, large and predatory zooplankton biomass, particulate and dissolved organic nitrogen, particulate silica, and silicic acid concentration. Several applications reported in this issue of Ecological Modelling have successfully used NEMURO, and an extension that includes fish as an additional state variable. Applications include studies of the biogeochemistry of the North Pacific, and variations of its ecosystem''s lower trophic levels and two target fish species at regional and basin-scale levels, and on time scales from seasonal to interdecadal. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Idealized forcing experiments with 1% per year CO2 increase to stabilized doubled and quadrupled CO2, twenty-first century transient scenario experiments (SRES scenarios A1B and B1), and stabilized twenty-second century A1B and B1 experiments with two global coupled climate models (PCM and CCSM3) are analyzed for possible future changes of El Niño events. With increased CO2 in the models, there is a reduction of amplitude of El Niño events. This is particularly apparent with larger forcing in the stabilized 4×CO2 experiment in PCM and the stabilized greenhouse gas A1B experiment in CCSM3, where the reduction of amplitude is outside the range of the inherent multi-century variability of El Niño in the control runs of the models and is statistically significant. With moderately increased forcing (stabilized 2×CO2 in PCM and the stabilized B1 experiment in CCSM3), the reduction in amplitude is evident, but it is not significant. The change in El Niño behavior with larger forcing is attributed to the change in base state temperature in the equatorial Pacific, which is similar with increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) in both models. Positive temperature anomalies in and below the thermocline, associated with a reduction of the trade winds, and weakened Pacific Ocean subtropical cells, produce a less intense thermocline, and consequently lower amplitude El Niño events. The previously noted intensification of El Niño tropical precipitation anomalies in a warmer mean base state that applied when there was no appreciable change in El Niño amplitude does not hold in the present study where the El Niño events decrease in magnitude in a future warmer climate. North American surface temperature anomalies associated with El Niño are reduced and become less significant in the future events, with the anomalously deepened Aleutian low in the North Pacific weakened and moved eastward with greater radiative forcing. Part of this is attributed to the smaller amplitude events and thus lower amplitude teleconnections as indicated by contrasting composites of medium and high amplitude El Niño events from the control runs. The change in midlatitude base state circulation also contributes to the change in El Niño teleconnections. The effects of this change in base state on the weakened El Niño teleconnections over North America are confirmed in sensitivity experiments with a version of the atmospheric model in which heating anomalies are specified to mimic El Niño events in a base state changed due to increased GHGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characteristics of the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the North Equatorial Current bifurcation latitude (NBL) are analyzed by using both observations and reanalysis data. The maximum amplitude of the ISV of the NBL can reach about 6° of latitude, which almost triples its annual excursion. The NBL shows a broad spectral peak around 50–140 days with the highest peak occurring around 73 days. Both the Madden‐Julian oscillation and mesoscale eddies have a significant impact on its ISV. A case study for a cyclonic eddy indicates that it can transport about 1.5 Sv (1 Sv–106 m3 s−1) waters to the NBL, and the bifurcation shifts northward with an amplitude of about 8° of latitude in 1 month. Meanwhile, the influence of mesoscale eddies on the ISV of the NBL is highly modulated by the interannual variations of the eddy field. Active eddy activities associated with enhanced barotropic and baroclinic instabilities show a large influence on the NBL. The eddy kinetic energy level around the NBL showed a quite diverse character for the 1997–1998 and the 2015–2016 extreme El Niños, with the latter being double or triple that of the former due to the much stronger vertical and horizontal shears. Given the significant impact on the NBL by the individual eddies and the unevenly distributed cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies around the NBL, the effect of mesoscale eddies on the bifurcation latitude may not cancel each other on seasonal or interannual time scales. Plain Language Summary: The North Equatorial Current bifurcation latitude (NBL) determines the mass, heat, and salt partition between the Kuroshio and the Mindanao Current. Variations in the NBL exert profound effects on the tropical Pacific climate and need to be better understood. This study identifies significant intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the NBL with the maximum amplitude reaching about 6° of latitude, which almost triples its annual excursion. Both the Madden‐Julian oscillation and mesoscale eddies have a significant impact on its ISV. A case study for a cyclonic eddy indicates that it can transport about 1.5 Sv waters to the NBL and perturbs the bifurcation significantly. Meanwhile, the influence of mesoscale eddies on the ISV of the NBL is highly modulated by the interannual variations of the eddy field, and active eddy activities associated with enhanced vertical and horizontal shears show a large influence on the NBL. Given the significant impact on the NBL by individual eddy and unevenly distributed cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies around the NBL, the effect of mesoscale eddies on the bifurcation latitude may not cancel each other on seasonal or interannual time scales. Key Points: The North Equatorial Current bifurcation latitude shows significant intraseasonal variability (ISV) with the maximum amplitude tripling its annual excursionBoth the Madden‐Julian oscillation and mesoscale eddies have a significant impact on its ISVA case study for a cyclonic eddy indicates that it can transport about 1.5 Sv waters to the NBL and perturb the bifurcation significantly [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we report on simulations of ecosystem responses to climate change with two planktonic ecosystem models, both coupled to a one-dimensional mixed-layer model run with annual wind and solar heating from Ocean Station P (50°N, 145°W) in the NE subarctic Pacific. The first ecosystem model is a four-component model previously tested with extensive observations from OSP (Deep-Sea Res. II 46 (1999) 2877). The second ecosystem model is more complex, including phytoplankton partitioned into two size classes, and imposed grazing by mesozooplankton, which varies in time according to long-term observations from OSP. Both models include temperature dependence of physiological rates. Two possible climate change scenarios are considered: (i) increasing ocean temperatures by 2°C (and 5°C) applied only to the ecological component, and (ii) changing the availability of iron to phytoplankton in the subarctic Pacific. Responses of the two models are similar, indicating that they are not primarily model-dependent. In the warming cases, annual behavior and average standing stocks decrease marginally (≤ 10% for T = 2°C, and ≤ 22% for T = 5°C, second model only), ecosystem recycling increases with warming, and losses of organic particles to the ocean interior decrease (∼ 10%) in the simpler model or increase slightly ((10%) in the complex model. Removal of any limitation by iron on phytoplankton growth changes phytoplankon standing stocks by 12% or less, but increases standing stocks of microzooplankton by 150% in the simple model and 225% in the complex model. The loss or export of organic particles to the ocean interior, indicative of the rate at which the ecosystem can sequester carbon, increases ∼20% in the first model and 37% in the second model, all of the increase in the second model via grazing by the mesozooplankton. The winter-to-summer drawdown of surface layer nitrate increases in all the climate change simulations.... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid development of urban areas can potentially alter hydro-meteorological fluxes and lead to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. In this study, UHI intensity and its driving factors were estimated using the Community Land Model (CLM) in cities of Tokyo, Phoenix, Bandung, and Quito, with different landscapes and climates, as a step in risk assessment of urbanization phenomena. The UHI magnitude increased along with the ratio of the height to width (H/W) of urban canyons in cities with the same latitude, especially during the daytime, when Quito (Tokyo) had a higher UHI than Bandung (Phoenix). El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, such as El Niño and La Niña, contributed to UHI variability, during which the cities in the western (eastern) part of Pacific Ocean experienced a higher UHI during El Niño (La Niña). The UHI differences from total biophysical drivers between these events were highest in Tokyo during the daytime as a result of convection process, and in Phoenix during the nighttime due to the hot arid climate of the city. Our results suggest the need to consider climate variation beyond local site characteristics when mitigating heat stress and making decisions regarding urban development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study extends recent ocean reanalysis comparisons to explore improvements to several next-generation products, the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation, version 3 (SODA3); the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, version 4, release 3 (ECCO4r3); and the Ocean Reanalysis System 5 (ORAS5), during their 23-yr period of overlap (1993–2015). The three reanalyses share similar historical hydrographic data, but the forcings, forward models, estimation algorithms, and bias correction methods are different. The study begins by comparing the reanalyses to independent analyses of historical SST, heat, and salt content, as well as examining the analysis-minus-observation misfits. While the misfits are generally small, they still reveal some systematic biases that are not present in the reference Hadley Center EN4 objective analysis. We next explore global trends in temperature averaged into three depth intervals: 0–300, 300–1000, and 1000–2000 m. We find considerable similarity in the spatial structure of the trends and their distribution among different ocean basins; however, the trends in global averages do differ by 30%–40%, which implies an equivalent level of disagreement in net surface heating rates. ECCO4r3 is distinct in having quite weak warming trends while ORAS5 has stronger trends that are noticeable in the deeper layers. To examine the performance of the reanalyses in the Arctic we explore representation of Atlantic Water variability on the Atlantic side of the Arctic and upper-halocline freshwater storage on the Pacific side of the Arctic. These comparisons are encouraging for the application of ocean reanalyses to track ocean climate variability and change at high northern latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The oceans are warming, but it is unclear how marine productivity will be affected under future climate change. In this study we examined a wide range of paleoproductivity proxies along a latitudinal transect (36–58°S) in the SW Pacific during the early Holocene climatic optimum, to explore regional patterns of productivity in a slightly warmer‐than‐present world. During the early Holocene there is a small increase in productivity in the subtropical waters, no change at the subtropical frontal zone, and conflicting evidence in records immediately south of the subtropical front, where an increase is inferred from one core site, but not at the other. Evidence for an increase in productivity in Antarctic Surface Waters, south of the polar front, is also equivocal. We infer a small increase in productivity in subtropical waters, and the ocean just south of the subtropical front was associated with changes in the ocean circulation of the SW Pacific, driven by changes in the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds split‐jet structure in this region. The relatively modest warming during the early Holocene climatic optimum in the SW Pacific indicates that this time period may provide an analog for future productivity for the midcentury (2055) under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 or for the end of the century (2100) under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. However, higher‐resolution, downscaled models, with realistic Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds, will be necessary to forecast future productivity for this oceanographically complex region. Key Points: There is evidence for a small increase in productivity in subtropical water and an expanded subtropical frontal region during the early HoloceneThe expansion of the Subtropical Front is likely due to changes in the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Wind split‐jet structureThe early Holocene is not a suitable analog for future productivity for the end of the century Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Middle Pleistocene Transition represents an important reorganization of climate that switched from a 41‐kyr periodicity to a quasiperiodic 100‐kyr cycle. Here, we have investigated this time interval using calcareous nannofossils from a midlatitude well‐preserved sedimentary record from the Ocean Drilling Program Site 1209 in the North West Pacific Ocean. We studied samples from 1.45 to 0.45 Ma, looking for significant changes in the nannofossil assemblages. Micropaleontological data were processed using an information theoretic model comparison that deconvolutes variations in nannofossil assemblages using different predictors. The major findings are that calcareous nannofossils permit the detection of discrete events during the Middle Pleistocene Transition. They display three different associations belonging, respectively, to the 41‐kyr world, the transition, and the 100‐kyr world. The statistical approach demonstrated that nannofossils responded abruptly at the boundaries of the transition developing in two rapid steps superimposed on a more gradual process. Moreover, a strong decrease in the genus Reticulofenestra and the beginning of the Gephyrocapsa caribbeanica acme permitted us to pinpoint climate events within the Middle Pleistocene Transition. Finally, through the nannofossil paleoecology, we documented an anomalous long‐term warming trend that could be related to an intensification of the Walker circulation and the stabilization of long‐term conditions like La Niña at the midlatitudes of the NW Pacific during the Middle Pleistocene Transition. Key Points: Three different intervals across MPT are defined by nannofossils, and the acme of Gephyrocapsa caribbeanica marks the end of the MPTStatistical framework indicates that at the MPT boundaries the nannofossil response was abrupt and superimposed on a gradual trendThe Walker circulation and the ENSO played a fundamental role at Pacific midlatitudes, during the MPT [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely appreciated that ozone-depleting substances (ODS), which have led to the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole, are also powerful greenhouse gases. In this study, we explore the consequence of the surface warming caused by ODS in the second half of the twentieth century over the Indo-Pacific Ocean, using the Whole Atmosphere Chemistry Climate Model (version 4). By contrasting two ensembles of chemistry–climate model integrations (with and without ODS forcing) over the period 1955–2005, we show that the additional greenhouse effect of ODS is crucial to producing a statistically significant weakening of the Walker circulation in our model over that period. When ODS concentrations are held fixed at 1955 levels, the forcing of the other well-mixed greenhouse gases alone leads to a strengthening—rather than weakening—of the Walker circulation because their warming effect is not sufficiently strong. Without increasing ODS, a surface warming delay in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean leads to an increase in the sea surface temperature gradient between the eastern and western Pacific, with an associated strengthening of the Walker circulation. When increasing ODS are added, the considerably larger total radiative forcing produces a much faster warming in the eastern Pacific, causing the sign of the trend to reverse and the Walker circulation to weaken. Our modeling result suggests that ODS may have been key players in the observed weakening of the Walker circulation over the second half of the twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remote forcing from El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) and local ocean-atmosphere feedback are important for climate variability over the North Tropical Atlantic. These two factors are extracted by the ensemble mean and inter-member difference of a ten-member Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment, in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but fully coupled to the atmosphere elsewhere. POGA reasonably captures main features of the observed North Tropical Atlantic variability. Both ENSO forced and local North Tropical Atlantic Modes (NTAMs) develop with wind-evaporation-SST feedback. Notable biases exist. The seasonality of the simulated NTAM is delayed by 1 month, due to the late development of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the model. This suggests the importance of NAO in setting the seasonality of NTAM and of the extratropical-tropical teleconnection. The simulated NTAM is closely related to the Atlantic Niño in the subsequent summer, a relationship not so obvious in observations. Local variability, represented by the preseason NAO and SST persistence, contributes considerably to NTAM variability. Including these two indicators, together with ENSO, improves the predictability of NTAM. The South Tropical Atlantic Mode can be forced by ENSO, and a cross-equatorial dipole is triggered by ENSO instead of local air-sea coupling within the tropical Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) with poor equatorial rainfall over the eastern Pacific Ocean distinctively occurs in March–April. Here we find that double ITCZs and equatorial precipitation are strongly linked to meridionally symmetric (or asymmetric) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns during eastern Pacific (EP)‐type (or central Pacific [CP]‐type) El Niño episodes. EP‐type El Niño weakens the north–south asymmetry of the eastern Pacific double ITCZs by moving them equatorward. In contrast, CP‐type El Niño strengthens the north–south asymmetry of the double ITCZs by strengthening the northern ITCZ and weakening the southern ITCZ. While EP‐type El Niño brings unique flourishing Galápagos Islands owing to warm equatorial SST anomalies with major local and remote climate effects, CP‐type El Niño causes drier Galápagos Islands by decreasing equatorial eastern Pacific SST. This study highlights the distinctly different climate effects of EP‐ and CP‐type El Niños in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]