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Background: Together with other elevated areas, the Mountains of Central Asia are significantly threatened by ongoing climate change. The presence of refuges during the glaciations makes the region extremely rich in species, especially endemic ones. However, the limited potential for colonisation of other habitats makes rocky-related species with 'island‐like' distribution, particularly vulnerable to climate change. To understand the processes underlying species response to climate warming, we assessed differences in ecological niches and phylogenetic relationship of two geographically disjunctive alpine species belonging to the genus Sergia. The taxa are considered Tertiary relicts, endemic to the Tian Shan and Pamir-Alai Mountains. To illustrate range dynamics and differences in occupied niches of Sergia species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling of current and future distribution. Whereas, to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship within and between Sergia and other related Campanulaceae species from the region we used molecular data (ITS, cpDNA, DArTseq-derived SNPs). Results: The results reveal that the genus Sergia is a polyphyletic group, and its representatives differ geographically, ecologically and genetically. Both S. regelii and S. sewerzowii constitute a common clade with Asyneuma group, however, S. sewerzowii is more closely related to Campanula alberti (a species that has never previously been considered closely related to the genus Asyneuma or Sergia) than to S. regelii. Sergia sewerzowii is adapted to lower elevations with higher temperatures, while S. regelii prefers higher elevations with lower temperatures. The future distribution models demonstrate a dramatic loss of S. regelii range with a shift to suitable habitats in higher elevations, while the potential range of S. sewerzowii increases and shifts to the north. Conclusions: This study shows that S. regelii and S. sewerzowii have a long and independent evolution history. Sergia regelii and S. sewerzowii significantly differ in realised niches. These differences are mirrored in the response of the studied endemics to future climate warming. As suitable habitats shrink, rapid changes in distribution can lead to species' range loss, which is also directly related to declines in genetic variability. The outcomes of this paper will help to more precisely assess the impact of climate changes on rocky-related plant species found in this world's biodiversity hotspot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number and area of alpine lakes in Tien Shan (TS) are rapidly growing in response to a warming climate and retreating glaciers. This paper presents a comparative analysis of lake classification and changes by dividing alpine lakes (within a 10 km buffer of the glacier margins) into four types (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes, extraglacial lakes and non-glacial lakes), and subsequently determining the driving forces of change across the TS region from 1990 to 2015. The analysis utilized multiple satellite images and climatic data from gridded data sets and meteorological station observations. The results indicate that the total number and area of glacial lakes continuously increased during the study period, whereas non-glacial lakes intermittently expanded. Specifically, the total number and area of all glacial lakes (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes and extraglacial lakes) increased by 45.45% and 27.08%, respectively. Non-glacial lakes, in contrast, increased in quantity and area by 23.92% and 19.01%, respectively. Alpine lakes are closer to glaciers at high altitudes; in fact, some (e.g., proglacial lakes) are connected to glacier termini, and these show the highest expansion speed during the study period. The area of proglacial lakes expanded by 60.32%. Extraglacial lakes expanded by 21.06%. Supraglacial lakes, in marked contrast to the other types, decreased in area by 3.74%. Widespread rises in temperature and glacier wastage were the primary cause of the steady expansion of glacial lakes, particularly those linked to small- and medium-sized glaciers distributed in the Eastern TS where glacial lakes have rapidly increased. Both proglacial and extraglacial lakes expanded by 6.47%/a and 2%/a, respectively, from 1990 to 2015. While these proglacial and extraglacial lakes are located in largely glacierized areas, lakes in the Central TS exhibited the slowest expansion, increasing in area by 1.44%/a and 0.74%/a, respectively. Alterations in non-glacial lake areas were driven by changes in precipitation and varied spatially over the region. This study has substantial implications for the state of water resources under the complex regional changes in climate in the TS and can be used to develop useful water-resource management and planning strategies throughout Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier melt water is an important water resource in arid regions of central Asia during the dry seasons, and it is very susceptible to climate disturbances. In this paper, based on the glacier datasets of the first and second Chinese Glacier Inventories, the glacier change in the Chinese Tien Shan from 1960s to 2010 was quantify by assessing the Annual Percentages of Area Changes ( APAC ), Annual Percentages of Volume Changes ( APVC ), and Equilibrium Line Altitude ( ELA ). The results indicated that the mean glacier area and mean glacier volume decreased by 0.7% ± 0.6% per year and 0.83% ± 0.73% per year in the Chinese Tien Shan during the period of 1960–2010, respectively. The mean ELA increased by 24.87 ± 126.84 m during the study period. In addition, we also found that the glacier retreat in the Bogda Mountains was the fastest, mainly due to the sensitivity of small glaciers to climate change, with an APAC of −0.86% ± 0.49% per year and APVC of −1.04% ± 0.55% per year, and the mean ELA increased by 44.35 ± 55.07 m. Moreover, increases in both air temperature (in terms of Thawing Degree-Day (TDD) and Freezing Degree-Day (FDD)) and precipitation were found over the study area during the past five decades. However, such increases in precipitation did not result in any significant changes in the ratio of annual snowfall to total precipitation (S/P) across the Chinese Tien Shan Mountains. Hence, the glacier shrinkage mainly resulted from the significant increase in TDD and FDD in the study region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report on a loess-paleosol sequence (LPS) near Remizovka, located in the northern Tian Shan piedmont of southeastern Kazakhstan. This site represents a key record for Late Pleistocene climatic fluctuations at the intersection of major northern hemisphere climate subsystems. This paper develops a synthesized dataset of previous conflicting studies at Remizovka by characterizing their (paleo)topographic context, which had remained previously overlooked. Digital elevation models, satellite images, and archival photography characterize recent topographic developments. Two well-developed pedocomplexes, which we investigate in detail and date by luminescence mark the paleotopography during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5. Peak dust accumulation rates here occurred during the middle MIS 5 and MIS 4/early MIS 3. These are partially comparable with records from neighboring regions, but not in phase with global ice volume records. This discrepancy may be related to a distinct regional environmental response to larger-scale climatic drivers and local topographic influences on dust deposition patterns. Our findings confirm the potential of the LPS Remizovka to provide high-resolution paleoclimate data for the Late Pleistocene. The three-dimensional stratigraphic reconstruction reinforces the caution required to correctly interpret loess formation processes prior to their interpretation as paleoclimate archives, and provides guidelines for a more suitable approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 is mostly a cold period encompassing the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), but the regional expression of MIS2 in arid areas of China is not well known. In this paper, we use high-resolution lacustrine pollen and grain-size records from Balikun Lake to infer vegetation, lake evolution, and climate in arid western China during MIS2. Our results suggest that: 1) the regional vegetation around Balikun was mainly dominated by desert and/or desert-steppe, and Balikun Lake was relatively shallow and experienced high aeolian input during MIS2; 2) distinctive runoff from mountain glacial meltwater in the eastern parts of the Balikun basin caused a high relative abundance of Artemisia pollen during the LGM (26.5–19.2 cal kyr BP), while simultaneously the desert areas expanded as indicated by the high abundance of desert shrubs (e.g., Elaeagnaceae, Rhamnaceae, Hippophae ). This cold and dry LGM climate triggered a substantial lowering of lake level; 3) an extremely cold and dry climate prevailing from 17.0 to 15.2 cal kyr BP, correlated with Heinrich event 1 (H1), would explain the low vegetation cover found then; and 4) the warm and humid Bølling/Allerød interstadial (BA: ca. 15– ca. 13 cal kyr BP) is clearly recorded in the Balikun region by the development of wetland herb communities (e.g., Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Typha ), and the lake level rose due to increased runoff. Our results challenge the traditional view of cold and wet climatic conditions and high lake levels in arid western China during the LGM, and we propose that changes in local temperature modulated by July insolation was an indispensable factor in triggering vegetation evolution in the Balikun region during MIS2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the topographic and geometric controls on glacier changes in area and equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) in the central Tien Shan, China, since the Little Ice Age (LIA). We delineate the extents of 487 modern glaciers and their corresponding maximum LIA glacial advances using satellite imagery in Google Earth, and analyze the relationships between the magnitude of glacier changes and a set of local topographic/geometric factors including glacier area, slope, aspect, shape, hypsometry and mean elevation. Our results show that: (1) glacier area decreased from 460.2km² during the LIA to 265.6km² in the 2000s (a loss of 42.3%), with an average ELA increase of ~100 m; (2) relative area changes of glaciers are strongly affected by two of these local factors (glacier area and mean elevation); and (3) ELA change does not show a strong relationship with local factors, suggesting that it may be controlled mainly by climatic factors. This study provides important insights into the local controls on glacier changes at the centennial timescale, which are of critical importance to assess future glacier changes in this arid and semi-arid region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tianger area in the Tien Shan preserves many glacial landforms to which several methods of estimating ancient equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) can be applied. Thus it provides the opportunity to compare different methods and evaluate the correlation between the methods and their errors. This comparison provides guidance in the application of these methods in other mid-latitude alpine glaciated areas. In this paper we calculate characteristic ratios relating to the ELAs, including accumulation-area ratio (AAR), toe-headwall altitude ratio (THAR), terminus-summit altitude method (TSAM) and Ho fer value, and their correlations with each other and the geomorphological characteristics. The AAR of a glacier is small when the slope of the bedrock beneath it is small and the area is large, and the AAR of a glacier with such characteristics is better correlated with its THAR, TSAM and Ho fer value. Paleoclimate information derived from these characteristic ratios relating to ELAs is discussed. The glaciers and the glacial climate of the early and middle stage of the last glacial are more continental than those of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Compared with those of the LGM on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountains, the ELA characteristics of the early and middle stage of the last glacial in the Tianger area show more continental features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Glaciers flow velocity is an important parameter for the study of glacier dynamics, mass balance and climate change, and can provide precursory warning of glacier melting induced flooding, debris flowing, etc. The Tuomuer-Khan Tengri Mountain Range is one of the largest glaciated areas in Tian Shan Mountain. However, the knowledge of glacier motion in this area is still rather limited. Using the method of robust Offset-tracking and four pairs of PALSAR images covering the Tuomuer-Khan Tengri Mountain Range, this paper estimates the displacement fields of the mountain glaciers in this area for each pair. The displacement fields are then mapped into daily glacier flow velocities by dividing the acquiring intervals of each pair. Using a series of checkpoints selected in stationary areas where the displacements can be assumed to be zero, we evaluate the estimation error of the displacement fields and find that most of them are less than 2.17cm/day. The displacement fields are analyzed in detail with regards to glacier bed terrain and glacial temperature and thickness. We find that they are in excellent accordance with the flow characteristic of typical mountain glaciers. The velocity changes among the observation years have been carefully examined. This along with the associated runoff measurements makes us conclude that the glaciers in the Tuomuer-Khan Tengri Range are assumedly in dynamic equilibrium between intensified melting and increased precipitation and glaciation, and their velocity will maintain stable in the near future. We also find that the altitudes of the velocity peaks are close to the recorded snowline, which indicates that detecting the changes of velocity peaks'' position might provide a reference for monitoring the changes of the snowlines. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]