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The land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector is receiving increasing attention in climate change mitigation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission offsetting. The sector itself and measures applied to mobilize this sector in order to tackle climate change are dominant in nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement as well as in national strategies, as in the case of Lithuania. Lithuania has set the goal of becoming a carbon-neutral country in 2050, reducing GHGs by 80% compared to 1990 and offsetting the remaining 20% through the LULUCF sector. Therefore, this paper aims at analyzing historical land-use changes in 1990–2021, as reported for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat, and LULUCF's potential to achieve climate change mitigation goals, taking into account different land-use change scenarios (business as usual, forest development, forest development + additional measures and forest land 40% + additional measures) for 2030 and 2050 in Lithuania. The scenarios are based on historical and potential future policy-based land-use changes. Projections of GHG emissions/removals for different scenarios are prepared according to the Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2006) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that land-use changes over the period 1990–2021 remained rather stable, with some increases in forest area and grassland at the expense of cropland. The whole LULUCF sector acted as a carbon sink in most cases, forests being a key category for removal. However, reaching climate neutrality in 2050 might be challenging, as the goal to offset 20% of remaining GHG emission compared to 1990 through LULUCF would not be met in any of the scenarios analyzed, even the scenario of maximal forest-area development and additional measures. Considering the high historical GHG-removal fluctuations and the uncertainties of the sector itself, caution should be taken when relying on LULUCF's potential to reach the set goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector plays an important role in climate change mitigation as long-term goal of carbon neutral economy depends on sector's ability to sequestrate carbon in biomass and soil. With reference to the Paris Agreement, accounting rules for LULUCF sector have been heavily discussed in European Union (EU), seeking of trustworthy inclusion of the sector in the assessment of Union's greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target. Therefore, the paper aims to analyze LULUCF sector's contribution to climate change mitigation with different accounting rules applied in EU countries and particularly in Lithuania. On EU level LULUCF sector's absorption in 2019 has equaled around -234 million t CO2 eq. (6% of total EU GHG emissions), in some countries reaching more than a half of national emissions. However, different accounting rules applied may provide significantly different number of potential credits for separate EU countries, creating some "winners" and "losers" situation. Though inclusion of LULUCF sector into GHG's emissions reduction targets remains discussible, some stability in rules is one of the main preconditions for proper LULUCF sector management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

EU has set ambitious commitment to achieve low carbon energy and economy transition up to 2050. This low carbon transition means sustainable energy development path based on renewable energy sources and first of all should address the energy poverty vulnerability and justice issues. The main goal of the paper is to develop indicators framework for assessing low carbon just energy transition and to apply this framework for analysis how climate change mitigation policies in households targeting enhancement of energy renovation of residential buildings and promotion of the use of micro-generation technologies and other policies are affecting household's energy poverty and vulnerability in selected countries: Lithuania and Greece. This framework allows to assess three main dimensions of sustainable energy development: environmental, social and economic. The paper provides policy recommendations how to deal with just low carbon energy transition which means addressing energy poverty issues during moving to 100% renewables in power generation based on performed case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to implement bioeconomy strategy and seek climate change mitigation, the enhancement of bioenergy production and consumption is required. Looking at a bottom-up approach in which a society can choose its renewable energy supplier, it is important to analyze what mechanisms contribute to the willingness to use bioenergy. In this paper, the Lithuania case, when the citizenry got a chance to choose an independent energy supplier, was considered. Applying the structural equation modelling the impact of financial, social and informational mechanisms, knowledge about bioeconomy and about the benefit on the environment and the willingness to use bioenergy was evaluated. The results showed that the financial mechanism and knowledge about bioenergy and the benefit on the environment influenced the willingness to use bioenergy the most. Information mechanism also influenced this intention. Meanwhile, social mechanism had no effect both on knowledge level and intention to use bioenergy. Therefore, this study could contribute to the formation of bioeconomy policy and the enhancement of bioenergy usage in the household sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lithuania has developed several important climate change mitigation policy documents however there are no attempts in Lithuania to develop local climate change mitigation policies or to decentralize climate change mitigation policy. The aim of the paper is to analyse climate change mitigation policies in households. The paper presents the framework for the assessment of reasonably achievable GHG emission reduction (RAER) potential in households based on behavioral changes related to energy consumption. The paper presents the results of empirical application of developed framework in Lithuanian households. Community based social marketing approach was implemented and GHG emission reduction potential was assessed in focus groups of Kaunas region county during preparation of sustainable development strategy and long-term strategic development plan for Kaunas region county. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The penetration of renewable energy is one of the main challenges for sustainable energy development. Local governments across the European Union commit to development and implementation of the Sustainable Energy (and Climate) Action Plan. This paper focuses on the case of Lithuania—a Central and Eastern European country. Almost one-third of Lithuanian municipalities have joined the Covenant of Mayors and prepared the plans that include SWOT analysis. However, there is a lack of information on how those plans contribute to climate change mitigation and sustainable energy development. This study identifies the links between key policy financial instruments, increasing energy efficiency. The Strategic Action Plans aimed at reducing GHG emissions and energy consumption in Lithuanian municipalities are analyzed. The challenges in promoting the renewable energy generation in Lithuanian rural regions are discussed. Moreover, the importance of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats identified is elicited at the local level. The study uses a combination of methods, such as expert surveys and SWOT analysis, that complements the tools used for regional energy climate planning and allows for overarching analysis. The expert survey shows that priority is given for renovation of buildings and modernization of energy infrastructure, making them more sustainable and more energy efficient. The results also show that, in the case of Lithuania (and possibly elsewhere in the post-Soviet countries), conditions and opportunities should be created beforehand to increase energy efficiency. Once this is achieved, the policies should focus on energy transition by switching to sustainable energy resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU is considering increasing the GHG emissions reduction target by 2020 from 20% to 30% by committing each member state to tighten up its emission reduction goals. According to the recent study such decision could cost some 2 365 million LTL to Lithuanian economy. Evaluation and comparison of CO2 abatement costs incurred by the state implementing a variety of measures in different sectors allow choosing a most cost effective policy scenario. The paper focuses on CO2 emissions related to energy use in buildings. First, this paper reviews the role of the Lithuanian building stock in overall GHG emissions. Then the paper examines the existing studies on the CO2 mitigation potential and cost in buildings. Given the limitations of existing evaluation and lack of comprehensive modelling in the existing studies, this paper proposes a framework for examining the technology options aimed to inform policy making on the options to reduce CO2 emissions in Lithuanian housing and service sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, wood has received increased interest in Europe as a multi-storey building material. The trend is driven by the recognition that wood, as an environment friendly material, can contribute bioeconomy development and the achievement of sustainable development goals. In Lithuania, multi-storey wood-based building is still at the level of policy and political discussions. Therefore, the presented research focuses on quantification and comparison of the sustainability impacts of both wood- and concrete-based building materials value chains and provides applied scientific knowledge relevant to decision makers and in this way contributes to mitigation of the climate change. In detail, study covers the production value chain – from raw material extraction to manufacturing using the same method, while documenting and assessing the material sourcing stages transparently and consistently. In our study glue laminated timber and sawn timber building materials represented renewable material value chains, while site-cast concrete and precast reinforced concrete building materials represented non-renewable materials value chains. In discussion with study partners in the BenchValue project and during a project stakeholder workshop, twelve environmental, social and economic indicators were selected to perform the sustainability impact assessment of selected building materials. Building materials were compared by using a decision support tool ToSIA. The relevant data was gathered from local, well-known companies in the national and international arena. Our results revealed that glue laminated timber and sawn timber value chains compared to site-cast concrete and precast reinforced concrete value chains have more positive sustainability impacts. This is especially true when analysing environmental indicators: GHG emissions , Energy use , Generation of wastes and Water use. Analyses also revealed more positive socio-economic impacts of wood-based building materials. The socio-economic advantage of wood could increase competitiveness of the regions and contributes to their sustainable development. Our paper is in line with the applied research. Since it is a case study, the presented results are country specific, because the estimation of indicators was done by applying local data. The presented research is relevant to policy experts and decision makers in the context of the reduction of CO 2 emissions. Also, this paper is relevant to the companies and architects who want to build and compare various building materials. Partially, results of this paper could be applied in other countries with comparable to Lithuania economic development level, having in mind the possible shortcomings already highlighted. • Sustainability impact assessment of building materials are critical for decision makers and influence the choice of materials. • SIA of wood- and concrete-based building materials production value chains (A1-A3) were compared. • A decision support tool ToSIA was applied. • Wood-based value chains showed more positive sustainability impacts compared to concrete-based value chains. • Wood could be the key component in increasing the sustainability of the national construction sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Driven by climate change mitigation, EU countries are committed to improve energy efficiency of their building stock by implementing the energy performance of buildings directive (EPBD). Should higher energy efficiency result in better indoor environmental quality (IEQ), this policy could also be seen as an opportunity to improve public health across Europe.Objectives: This paper focuses on the assessment of the effects of energy retrofits on occupant satisfaction with IEQ and health in multifamily buildings.Methods: Data on occupant satisfaction with IEQ and health were collected from the occupants of 39 Finnish and 15 Lithuanian multifamily buildings (an average of five apartments per building, one adult per apartment) both before and after energy retrofits (such as improving thermal insulation, windows, heating and/or ventilation systems). Parallel to the data collected from the occupants, data on several IEQ parameters, including temperature, temperature factor, and air change rate, were collected from their apartments. Moreover, data from seven Finnish and five Lithuanian non-retrofitted control buildings were collected according to the same protocol.Results: Occupant satisfaction regarding indoor temperature was associated with both retrofit status (OR 5.3, 95% CI 2.6-11.0) and measured IEQ parameters (indoor temperature OR 1.4 per 1 °C increase, temperature factor OR 1.1 per 1% increase, and air change rate OR 5.6 per 1/h increase). Additional positive associations were found between retrofit status and occupants reporting absence of upper respiratory symptoms (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-2.9) as well as not missing work or school due to respiratory infections (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.2-13.8), however, these associations were independent of the measured IEQ parameters.Conclusions: There seems to be a strong subjective component related to the observed changes in occupant satisfaction with IEQ and health as a result of energy retrofitting in buildings. Further studies are needed to verify the actual mechanisms, as well as possible long term effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finland has adopted a high profile in climate change mitigation. A national target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2035 has been declared. As a part of this, the use of coal for energy purposes has been banned from May 2029 onwards. The Nordic electricity market was a world fore-runner in creating a liberalized, multi-national electricity market in the 1990s. At present, the electricity systems of Finland, Sweden, and Norway are already very low-carbon. The Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined the Nordic market about a decade ago. Estonian electricity production is the most carbon-intensive of all the EU countries due to the extensive use of domestic oil shale. Especially Lithuania still suffers from capacity deficit created by the closure of the Soviet time nuclear reactor Ignalina in Lithuania. This paper presents the ambitions of the EU and national level energy and climate policies and models the multi-national impacts of Finland's forthcoming closure of coal-fired generation. We also take into account Sweden's planned decrease in nuclear generation. We find that these national-level policies have an impact on the Baltic countries as reduced import possibilities and increasing electricity prices, and the expected rise of the EU CO2 allowance prices amplifies these. We further find that the abandonment of coal and nuclear power plants increases the net import and increases CO2 emissions in neighboring regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The aim of the article is to develop technique for climate change mitigation policies assessment based on priorities of sustainable energy development. There is a close relationship between energy policies and tools aiming at sustainable energy development targets, i.e. promotion of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures and climate change mitigation tools. Therefore ranking of climate change mitigation tools based on their impact sustainable energy development targets is necessary seeking to ensure harmonization of policies and their synergy effect. The main tasks of the article are: (i) to define EU sustainable energy development targets, (ii) to analyze EU energy and climate change mitigation policies and their interactions, (iii) to propose a multi-criteria framework for climate change mitigation policies assessment and ranking, and (iv) to apply multi-criteria decision making methodology for climate change mitigation policies ranking in Lithuania. The main findings of paper are related with proposed technique for climate change mitigation policies assessment and application of this technique for ranking of climate change mitigation policies in Lithuania. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Research Highlights: Validating modelling approach which combines global framework conditions in the form of climate and policy scenarios with the use of forest decision support system to assess climate change impacts on the sustainability of forest management. Background and Objectives: Forests and forestry have been confirmed to be sensitive to climate. On the other hand, human efforts to mitigate climate change influence forests and forest management. To facilitate the evaluation of future sustainability of forest management, decision support systems are applied. Our aims are to: (1) Adopt and validate decision support tool to incorporate climate change and its mitigation impacts on forest growth, global timber demands and prices for simulating future trends of forest ecosystem services in Lithuania, (2) determine the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change effects on Lithuanian forests and forest management in the future, supposing that current forestry practices are continued. Materials and Methods: Upgraded version of Lithuanian forestry simulator Kupolis was used to model the development of all forests in the country until 2120 under management conditions of three climate change scenarios. Selected stand-level forest and forest management characteristics were aggregated to the level of regional branches of the State Forest Enterprise and analyzed for the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change effects. Results: Increased forest growth under a warmer future climate resulted in larger tree dimensions, volumes of growing stock, naturally dying trees, harvested assortments, and also higher profits from forestry activities. Negative impacts were detected for the share of broadleaved tree species in the standing volume and the tree species diversity. Climate change effects resulted in spatially clustered patterns—increasing stand productivity, and amounts of harvested timber were concentrated in the regions with dominating coniferous species, while the same areas were exposed to negative dynamics of biodiversity-related forest attributes. Current forest characteristics explained 70% or more of the variance of climate change effects on key forest and forest management attributes. Conclusions: Using forest decision support systems, climate change scenarios and considering the balance of delivered ecosystem services is suggested as a methodological framework for validating forest management alternatives aiming for more adaptiveness in Lithuanian forestry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]