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For several decades oil-rich 'hydrocarbon-dependent' rentier states (countries) have been attempting to reduce their substantial economic reliance on oil, prompted by cyclical global commodity price volatility. Despite the sluggish economic diversification efforts, these states are now confronted with another structural challenge - an accelerating decline in global demand for fossil fuels as a part of climate change mitigation measures. With global economic agencies calling for rapid and unprecedented reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, there is an urgent need for these states to rapidly transition to a low carbon economy while minimizing adverse economic and social consequences. Addressing this imperative, the authors have sought to understand the 'low-carbon pathways' that could enable a rapid economic transition, using a two-stage Delphi study which used the hydrocarbon-dependent rentier state of Qatar as a case study. This paper presents the results of the Delphi study regarding the economic transition (part of the broader social change) from hydrocarbon-dependent to a low-carbon economy, investigating the key drivers and barriers and opportunities. The researchers propose a set of recommendations for facilitating economic transition away from the reliance on oil, to encourage the adoption of global and regional transition drivers, and overcome identified transition barriers. The study findings have implications for guiding public and private sector leaders to initiate and accelerate the transition in rentier state economies. • Hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states are considering low-carbon economic transitions. • This study investigated low-carbon pathways for Qatar as a case study. • The Delphi study revealed clear drivers, barriers and opportunities for a transition. • Low-carbon economic transitions will require significant leadership. • Immediate commencement is required to minimize long-term economic hardship [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris Climate Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals declared by the United Nations set high expectations for the countries of the world to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to be sustainable. In order to judge the effectiveness of strategies, the evolution of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions in countries around the world has been explored based on statistical analysis of time-series data between 1990 and 2018. The empirical distributions of the variables were determined by the Kaplan–Meier method, and improvement-related utility functions have been defined based on the European Green Deal target for 2030 that aims to decrease at least 55% of GHG emissions compared to the 1990 levels. This study aims to analyze the energy transition trends at the country and sectoral levels and underline them with literature-based evidence. The transition trajectories of the countries are studied based on the percentile-based time-series analysis of the emission data. We also study the evolution of the sector-wise distributions of the emissions to assess how the development strategies of the countries contributed to climate change mitigation. Furthermore, the countries' location on their transition trajectories is determined based on their individual Kuznets curve. Runs and Leybourne–McCabe statistical tests are also evaluated to study how systematic the changes are. Based on the proposed analysis, the main drivers of climate mitigation and evaluation and their effectiveness were identified and characterized, forming the basis for planning sectoral tasks in the coming years. The case study goes through the analysis of two counties, Sweden and Qatar. Sweden reduced their emission per capita almost by 40% since 1990, while Qatar increased their emission by 20%. Moreover, the defined improvement-related variables can highlight the highest increase and decrease in different aspects. The highest increase was reached by Equatorial Guinea, and the most significant decrease was made by Luxembourg. The integration of sustainable development goals, carbon capture, carbon credits and carbon offsets into the databases establishes a better understanding of the sectoral challenges of energy transition and strategy planning, which can be adapted to the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With sustainability at the heart of Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup 2022™, Qatar has set a track to achieve carbon neutrality, committing to deliver the first‐ever carbon neutral mega event in the world. Achieving these goals require offsetting carbon emissions through quality projects within and outside the state. Tree nurseries with stress‐tolerant variants play a significant role in cutting the excess emissions from Qatar 2022, thereby supporting long‐term sustainable development. This research presents a novel approach to offset carbon emissions utilizing the carbon sequestration potential of trees planted in a tree nursery project in Qatar. The i‐Tree assessment tool and a well‐established US database are used in this regard to undertake a correlation climatic condition analysis between Doha and five locations in the United States with similar demographics as the State of Qatar. The tree nursery data along with water consumption, fertilizer use, and power consumption, were fed as the inputs to the assessment tool. The assessments were carried out considering different irrigation methods for trees and shrubs, treated sewage water with a significant amount of organic fertilizer, and desalinated water. The analysis showed a net‐carbon‐emission reduction equal to 23.482 t CO2‐eqv/year using the treated sewage water. The tree nursery project has a carbon reduction potential of 21.902% compared to the maximum carbon sequestration potential of 30.39 kg/CO2‐eqv/tree/year, when using treated sewage water and a mix of the specific fertilizer. However, the use of desalinated water holds a negative impact on the carbon balance to such a level that the introduction of trees in Middle Eastern may not positively affect climate change mitigation. It was also found that the amount of carbon footprint reduction after the FIFA World Cup 2022 is expected to increase steadily during the average life expectancy of the trees assessed, which were evaluated to be circa 135 years. The results presented support urban planners in proposing integrated sustainability planning strategies and policies. These strategies can initiate projects such as nurseries, parks, and open space areas to reduce carbon footprints, improve the city's social and economic aspects, and preserve the post‐event legacy of mega‐sporting events like the World Cup and Olympic Sports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]