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The forest sector can play a significant role in climate change mitigation. We evaluated forest sector carbon trends and potential mitigation scenarios in Vermont using a systems‐based modeling framework that accounts for net emissions from all forest sector components. These components comprise (1) the forest ecosystem, including land‐use change, (2) harvested wood products (HWP), and (3) substitution effects associated with using renewable wood‐based products and fuels in place of more emission‐intensive materials and fossil fuel‐based energy. We assessed baseline carbon trends from 1995 through 2050 using a business as usual (BAU) scenario. Emission reductions associated with different forest management and HWP scenarios were evaluated relative to the BAU scenario from 2020 to 2050. We estimated uncertainty for each forest sector component and used a Monte Carlo approach to estimate the distribution of cumulative total mitigation for each scenario relative to baseline. Our analysis indicates that the strength of the forest sector carbon sink in Vermont has been declining and will continue to decline over coming decades under the BAU scenario. However, several scenarios evaluated here could be effective in reducing emissions and enhancing carbon uptake. Shifting HWP to longer‐lived commodities resulted in a 14% reduction in net cumulative emissions by 2050, the largest reduction of all scenarios. A scenario that combined extending harvest rotations, utilizing additional harvest residues for bioenergy, and increasing forest productivity resulted in a 12% reduction in net cumulative emissions. Shifting commodities from pulp and paper to bioenergy showed a 7.3% reduction in emissions. In contrast, shortening rotations to increase harvests for bioenergy use resulted in a 5.5% increase in emissions. In summary, model simulations suggest that net emissions could be reduced by up to 14% relative to BAU, depending on the management and HWP‐use scenario. Combining multiple scenarios could further enhance reductions. However, realizing the full climate mitigation potential of these forests may be challenging due to socioeconomic barriers to implementation, as well as alternative management objectives that must be considered along with carbon sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different interest groups lobby for decisions about resources that align with their "heritage narratives," or selective representations of a community's history. There is limited understanding of how heritage narratives mediate local dialogue about climate resiliency. We conducted in-depth interviews with residents of varying socioeconomic status, race, length of residence, and climate change beliefs in two localities impacted by severe flooding. Heritage narratives influenced perspectives of some residents in Detroit, Michigan (n = 20) and Waterbury, Vermont (n = 15) regarding causes of recent record-setting floods, and appropriate solutions to mitigate future flooding. Some agreement on solutions emerged, with notable exceptions. Those who blamed government mismanagement desired specific government actions, while those who blamed climate change emphasized emissions reductions. In Waterbury, income affected residents' feelings of disconnection and associated communication needs. In Detroit, race influenced perspectives in key ways. Implications for ways to improve environmental justice of climate change mitigation policies and dialogue are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]