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Climate change is a concerning topic, as it is impossible to deny its damaging effects on the planet. Different policy responses have been offered regarding climate change adaptation, and these have brought forward issues related to climate justice. As this topic is still not very well known in Brazil, this paper aims to raise awareness on climate justice concepts and related issues. This is a literature review which analyses climate justice theories and their relation with the concept of climate change adaptation in order to offer a new point-of-view on the topic. This paper has come to the conclusion that the concept of climate change has been created due to the increased importance of climate justice. Its origins lie in climate change activism, which seeks to help the most affected communities. That was when the fight for sharing the burden of climate change emerged, giving rise to the concepts of mitigation and climate adaptation. Thus, the most affected populations should receive assistance in the form of climate change impact adaptation, financed by the countries which are responsible for most greenhouse effect gas emissions, in name of climate justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a thorough analysis of the scientific production in climate change and adaptation in Brazil. We conducted a bibliometric and bibliographic review to reveal and discuss how climate change research has been carried out. We compared a broader climate change research dataset with a more specific climate adaptation research dataset, to understand the main differences and convergence points, and how science conducted from a mitigation and adaptation perspective demonstrates potential to confront the climate change challenges and drivers in Brazil. Four main clusters of investigation within climate change were detected: (1) impacts on forest and plant development, (2) land use and ecology, (3) adaptation/governance, and (4) climate/atmospheric studies. Only about 5% of the total studies on climate change address adaptation, for which three main clusters of research were identified: (1) adaptation actions and policies; (2) urban environment, vulnerability, and health and (3) food and coastal impacts. Although there are strong research trends in climate change for the Amazon Forest, there was less evidence of studies concerning climate adaptation for this and other Brazilian biomes, smaller cities, rural and traditional communities, and poorer regions. Our results shed a light on the more commonly chosen research topics, their strongest points and potential gaps and trends. This can contribute to the scientific communication and implementation of climate actions in Brazil, and a better understanding of the climate science knowledge from the perspective of a middle-income country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use and water management have considerable impacts on regional climates. This paper proposes that in humid regions with low wind patterns the construction of hydropower storage reservoirs contributes to the increases in the probability of precipitation in the regional climate. This observation has been tested with a methodology that calculates the cumulative influence of reservoir construction in the basins surrounding with a proposed index named Cumulative Impact of Existing Reservoirs, and compares this index with the historical flow of the rivers. It was found that the construction of reservoirs in Brazil had a considerable impact on its river flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to compute climatological zones apt for the cultivation of pitaya based on trends in the occurrence of climate change events from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change) in Brazil. We used temperature and precipitation data from 4942 cities collected on the NASA/POWER platform (National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) from 1990 to 2020 to elaborate on the current scenario. The climate change scenarios were obtained using the CHELSA platform (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) and corresponded to the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 associated with four IPCC climate change scenarios. The spatialization of the data occurred according to the bioclimatic classes designed to meet the thermal and water needs of the crop. In the current scenario, class B5 has a predominance of 37.07% of the country, characterizing the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions, as well as the state of Paraná, as suitable for the cultivation of pitaya. Projections of temperature increase and reduction of accumulated rainfall were found throughout Brazil, but with greater impact in the North and Northeast regions, which had the greatest reduction of areas suitable for the cultivation of pitaya with a greater predominance of classes B8 and B9. In the South and Southeast regions, class B5 makes up a large part of the areas that remained suitable for the production of this fruit until 2080. The results suggest that climate change does not benefit the cultivation of pitaya in some regions of Brazil because the dimensions of the areas suitable for economic production are restricted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• SMARTS + satellite method led to good results for field IV curve spectral correction. • CdTe showed spectral factors of up to 10% for Northern and 2% for Southern Brazil. • Average spectral factor for mc-Si in Florianópolis showed 2% spectral losses. • SMARTS + satellite data method yielded good irradiance-weighted averaged SF results. This paper presents an analysis of spectral impacts on mc-Si and new generation CdTe in two distinct regions of Brazil: Florianópolis-SC (27°S, 48°W) in the South, and Assu-RN (5°S, 37°W) in the Northeast. As utility-scale PV power plants are progressively being deployed in the Brazilian Northeast, the need for evaluation of the spectral effects of local blue-biased spectra on the energy yield of different PV technologies arises, as well as the need for spectral correction of field peak-power measurements done during commissioning and system performance tests. Considering the high cost of adequate spectral measurement equipment, this paper proposes a new approach for the estimation of spectral impacts without the need for in loco measurements. The proposed methodology consists of the use of satellite data acquired from NASA's Giovanni platform as inputs for the SMARTS 2.9.5 spectra model. Results for measured spectra showed that, for both locations, new generation CdTe (i.e. First Solar Series 4 and 6) has significant spectral gains: up to 10% for Assu-RN (Northeastern Brazil) and 2% for Florianópolis-SC (Southern Brazil). A seasonal variation could also be detected for the Florianópolis site, with lower spectral gains for CdTe - and higher for mc-Si - close to the Southern Hemisphere's winter solstice, due to higher air mass values and lower precipitable water content of the atmosphere. The proposed method using Giovanni data and SMARTS spectra modeling produced very similar spectra to those measured for clear days in the field at both sites, yielding good results for the calculation of spectral factors for both mc-Si and CdTe. For days with a higher diffuse fraction the results were not as satisfactory, as expected. The proposed method was also applied to instantaneous measurements for three different times (and AM values) of the day for Florianópolis: 9:00, 12:00 and 15:00, yielding satisfactory results for IV curve spectral correction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of climatic variables in large scales with surface meteorological stations is limited due to the low density of these stations in many regions, possible sources of errors related to missing data, and uncertainties about the calibration sensors. Global gridded data (GD) systems can minimize these problems. Thus, studies that validate GDs with "ground truth" are important for several applications such as climate change. The objective of this study was to compare long series of surface data with 10-day estimates of average air temperature (T) and precipitation (P) using data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for important agricultural locations in the states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo in Brazil. Despite the different spatial resolutions between ECMWF and NASA, the purpose of this paper was to evaluate the two data sources as they are readily available. The GD performance was evaluated by linear regression analysis. Analyses were performed for each meteorological variable for entire years and separated by seasons. The estimates of T from both ECMWF and NASA systems were accurate with the minimum Willmott concordance index (d) and RMSEp of 0.86, 0.37 °C, respectively, and precision with R2 0.61. The estimates of P had a minimum R2, d, and RMSEp of 0.48, 0.79, 2.15 °C respectively. The decreasing orders of (R2) were autumn > winter > spring > summer for T and winter > autumn > spring > summer for P, varying from 0.93 to 0.61 for T and from 0.77 to 0.48 for P. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• 5210 forestry Brazilian theses and 2228 forestry articles were evaluated. • Climate change on forest environments are understudied given its relevance. • Three key opportunities to improve science about climate change are presented. This article explores the extent to which research in forestry is directly related to the issue of climate change. The study conducted two surveys, one analyzing 5,210 theses from Brazilian forestry-related postgraduate programs between 2013 and 2022, and another examining 2228 articles published in ten forestry journals in 2022. We classified the extent of a focus on climate change in four classes: strong focus, relevant focus, using it as a context and not considered. Given the pervasive impacts of changing climates, we found a small representation of the topic within the theses with only 2% with a strong focus, 2% of relevant focus and 5% mentioned climate change as a contextual factor but provided no clear connections or inferences about climate change and forests. The focus on climate change was developed better in the forest journals. Almost one-third at least justified their projects based on connections to climate change, and 14% directly studied climate change and its impacts. Six percent of the papers with a direct focus on climate change also incorporated climate change effects into their experimental designs. We propose three key opportunities for improve the science about climate change related directly with forestry. Firstly, an opportunity is related with the writing of papers by itself, where articles might have substantive connections and insights connected with the core theme of the research. Secondly, taking Brazil as an example, there should have an increment in the number of graduate students working directly with the theme of climate change given its relevance. Lastly, we identified an opportunity for a more balanced science in the distinct types of forests. Tropical forest represents 45% of the forests worldwide but comprises only 14% of studies in our sample. By addressing these opportunities, we will not only benefit the forests but also contribute to a more sustainable and climate-resilient future for both forests and communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the trophic state index (TSI) and water physico-chemical characteristics of a shallow tropical reservoir located in southeast Brazil. It describes a study held over a hydrological and diurnal period, which enabled to map the variability of several physico-chemical variables due to regional climate and to compare the results with the TSI in winter and summer. The thermal behavior of the water column is typical of a polymictic reservoir. Low dissolved oxygen levels have been measured, reaching 0.07 mg L in the deepest part of the reservoir as a direct consequence of the increased nutrient levels. The average pH was slightly acid (6.71) especially at the reservoir bottom and did not show significant changes during the monitoring period. The electrical conductivity varied according to seasons, i.e., it was higher in the rainy period compared to dry season, averaging 138 and 84.06 µS/cm, respectively. According to the TSI, the reservoir has been classified as mesotrophic and eutrophic in the dry and rainy season, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Ethnobiology & Ethnomedicine is the property of BioMed Central and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Global warming is a current problem that needs to be addressed by collaborating with researchers from different disciplines and expertise. There is a concern about training the next generation of scientists to holistically address climate change. One way to address this concern is gathering researchers to promote collaboration, as a critical aspect of the scientific perspective. This study focused on the interactions among 119 early career researchers from different disciplines and countries attending the São Paulo School of Advanced Science on Climate Change 2017 in Brazil. The aim of this research case study was to identify factors and social dynamics influencing the effective generation of collaborative networks. First, social perceptions were assessed to expose factors influencing the open exchange of knowledge and dynamics among the new researchers. Second, the occurrence of interdisciplinary and intercultural interactions was evaluated using social network analysis. Using the qualitative and quantitative outcomes, perceived indicators related to barriers (e.g., language and background) and drivers (e.g., gender and age) were linked to the structure of two social networks analyzed: workplace/studyplace, and professions. Social network analysis showed that although the participants aggregated challenging the goal of collaborative networks, they actively sought interdisciplinary approaches. Based on detected barriers, future events organizers searching for an interdisciplinary climate change approach are encouraged to actively overcome these limitations by taking into account the culture, beliefs, and conceptualization aspects at a group level without overlooking individual preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mangrove is a transitional coastal ecosystem between marine and terrestrial environments that is characterized by salinity and constant tidal flooding. Mangroves contain plant communities that are adapted to several physical constraints, including the climate. The purpose of this study was to analyze the variations in climatic attributes (air temperature, relative air humidity, global solar radiation, wind, and rainfall) in the mangroves located in the municipality of Iguape, on the southern coast of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. In addition, it was determined whether the existing variation is related to the presence of the canopy environment. A microclimate tower was installed with two weather stations to obtain an analysis of the variation of the climatic attributes above and below the canopy. The results indicate that global solar radiation had an average transmissivity of 26.8%. The air temperature at 10 m was higher than that at the sensor at 2 m. The average rainfall interception for the mangrove environment was 19.6%. Both the maximum gust and average wind speed decreased by approximately 63.7% at 2 m. The mangrove canopy was found to be an important control on the variation of climatic attributes. On a microclimatic scale, the climate attributes had a direct influence on the spatial distribution of vegetation. Additionally, characteristics of the canopy are the main control for this variation, especially for the distribution of rainfall and the amount of solar radiation below the canopy, which influence the distribution of plant species in the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variety of interactions between human cultures and herpetofauna is the subject matter of Ethnoherpetology, a subdivision of Ethnozoology. In the semi-arid region of Brazil, many reptiles interact with human communities because of their utility or because of the risks they represent. These interactions have obvious implications for the conservation of reptiles from this region. In this context, ethnoherpetology studies are crucial because they serve as subsidies for guiding strategies for the handling and conservation of reptiles. This paper presents ethnozoological and taxonomic informations of hunted reptiles in the semiarid region of Brazil and analyse the implications on conservation that are related to the interactions between people and reptiles in this region. Taxonomic keys to identifying recorded reptiles are provided. Records of humans interacting with 38 reptile species that belong to 31 genuses and 16 families have been found. The groups with the largest numbers of recorded species were snakes (18 species), and this group was followed in number by lizards (13), chelonians (4), and crocodilians (3). The reptiles that were recorded may be used for the following purposes: medicinal purposes (24 species), food (13 species), ornamental or decorative purposes (11 species), in magical/religious practices (10 species), and as pets (10 species). Some species (n = 16) may have multiple uses. Furthermore, more than half of the species (n = 19) are commonly killed because they are considered potentially dangerous. Strategies for conserving the reptiles of the Brazilian semi-arid region must reconcile and integrate human and conservation needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural proxies, documentary evidence and instrumental data are the only sources used to reconstruct past climates. In this paper, we present the 18th century meteorologists (either Portuguese or foreigners) who made the first observations at several sites in Continental Portugal, Madeira Island and Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), from 1749 until 1802. Information is given concerning observation site, variables observed, measurement period, methods of measurements and sources (both manuscript and printed). Some examples from the data usefulness are given: rainfall variability in Madeira (1749-1753) and in continental Portugal (1781-1793) was reconstructed, allowing to extend towards the late 18th century the well known negative correlation between the NAO index and seasonal rainfall. Furthermore, previously unpublished data for 1783-1784 have allowed analysing the consequences of the Lakag'igar eruption in Portugal: foggy and haze days are referred to in summer 1783, but unlike the hot summer observed in northern and central Europe, temperatures in Portugal were lower than average. Additionally, observations from Rio de Janeiro in Brazil show that the Lakag'igar consequences may well have spread to sectors of the Southern Hemisphere. Although the series are short, the data have been used for climate reconstruction studies and may also be useful to improve the quality of large scale reconstruction datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Ambiente e Água is the property of Revista Ambiente e Agua and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Urban flooding causes large economic losses, property damage and loss of lives. The impact of environmental changes, mainly urbanization and climatic change, leads to increased runoff and peak flows which the drainage system must be able to cope with to reduce potential damage and inconvenience. Allowing for detention storage to compliment the conveyance capacity of the drainage system network is one of the approaches to reduce urban floods. Contemporary practice is to design systems against stationary environmental forcings - including design rainfall, landuse, etc. Due to the rapid change in the climate- and the urban environment, this approach is no longer appropriate, and explicit consideration of gradual changes during the life-time of the drainage system is warranted. In this paper, a staged cost optimization tool based on the hydraulic performance of the drainage system is presented. A one dimensional hydraulic model is used for hydraulic evaluation of the network together with a genetic algorithm based optimization tool to determine optimal intervention timings and responses over the analysis period. The model was applied in a case study area in the city of Porto Alegre, Brazil. It was concluded that considerable financial savings and/or additional level of flood-safety can be achieved by approaching the design problem as a staged plan rather than one-off scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of pluviometric precipitation time series obtained from 45 data collection points, with daily rain measurements (in mm), from 45 counties within the nine climatic regions of the state of São Paulo, mostly for the period of 1950–1997. São Paulo State (Brazil) is situated between the inter-tropical climatic zone, dominated by tropical and equatorial masses, and the sub-tropical climatic zone controlled by tropical and polar air masses. Due to this location the State can be divided into three climatic zones: south-east and south-west, which are permanently humid, and north with a well defined dry period. Rescaled range analysis, or R/S analysis, has been used to investigate the scale properties of the time series. We found two clear values for the Hurst exponent, one for a period of 10 to 200 days (H1), and another for a period above 210 days (H2). The value of H1 lies between 0.6 to 0.7 for all climatic zones indicating characteristics of persistence. However, H2 is (i) close to 0.5 for the littoral area, showing random characteristics, (ii) close to 0.6 for mountain areas, indicating persistence characteristics, and (iii) close to 0.4 for the plane area, irrespective of whether the climate is dry or humid, and shows anti-persistence characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose — This paper seeks to address the issue of persistent and widespread drought conditions during 2000 and 2001, which were the apparent cause of the decline of water levels in the reservoirs of Brazilian hydroelectric power plants. Design/methodology/approach — This issue is addressed here through a case study of the hydroclimatology of the Paraiba river basin, in Southeast Brazil, home to four large multi-purpose operational reservoirs. Findings — The data analysis shows that neither changes in the frequency nor magnitude of extreme hydrological events (droughts and floods) nor in annual rainfall amounts can be detected from the existing climate record. The explanation is consistent with the fact that the terrestrial water and energy cycles are tightly, and non-linearly, coupled through evapotranspiration. Research limitations/implications — Therefore small change in the seasonality of rainfall can have a significant impact on the basin's overall hydrologic regime, and thus on the availability of water resources. Originality/value — Often, adaptation and resilience to climate variability are discussed in the context of catastrophic events such as floods and droughts. This study suggests that a different type of impacts, those associated with subtle, yet persistent changes of seasonality in the terrestrial water cycle, cannot be ignored in studies of long-term sustainability of water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the geological and morphological evolution of the prograded Cassino barrier during the middle and late Holocene. A special focus is given on the presentation and discussion of records of environmental changes that occurred during barrier progradation. The results demonstrated that variable rates of progradation were produced by environmental changes that affected the coastal sediment budget, such as changes in the wave climate. The total progradation of 18 km recorded for the Cassino barrier is probably the highest extension of progradation registered for a ridge plain associated with a coastal barrier. Sea-level changes during barrier progradation were accessed by the high difference between the degree of compaction of the foredune and backshore/foreshore deposits detected by the drilling system applied in this study and were confirmed by the limit of those deposits, which were also revealed by GPR records. During most of the time of barrier progradation, an overall sea-level fall of approximately 2 ± 1 m occurred. Six sets of relict foredune ridges were identified, and the limits between them were well marked by ridge truncations and the formation of transgressive dune sheets (TDS). Optically stimulated luminescence ages show that the TDS were formed under the driest climate conditions, with age periods very close to 3.8, 3.5, 1.9, 1.5, 0.22 and 0.09 ka ago, interspersed with ages of known wetter conditions in southern Brazil. The modern phases of TDS formation, with ages varying from 0.25 to 0.22 ka ago, were coincident with the time period of the younger pulse of the Little Ice Age (LIA), which was characterized by arid and cold conditions in southern South America. A comparison with prograded barriers located 350 to 600 km to the north suggests the existence of teleconnections, with phases of TDS and parabolic dunes that formed with a time interval of approximately 405 to 583 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation variability in Brazil was investigated using reanalysis data from the Global Historical Climatology Network—Monthly, version 3.01, within 1920–2010, provided freely by the University of Delaware. The analysis of space‐temporal pattern was conducted using principal component analysis (PCA) in temporal and spatial modes. It also intends to contribute with the literature that characterizes the patterns of spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation in Brazil. Temporal grouping allowed the identification of five spatial models that represents the spatial distribution of the precipitation, explained variance of 38%. Spatial grouping mode zoned through six temporal models of the areas with partially homogeneous precipitation, explained variance of 22.69%. In equatorial latitudes, the models identified Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) latitudinal and temporal variability in North and South Hemispheres. In tropical latitudes, the models evidenced anomalous precipitation due to South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and South America Monsoon System. In subtropical latitudes, rainfall spatial anomalous patterns were associated to the di‐pole pattern between tropical and subtropical latitudes, which shows the influence of the climatic variability modes, especially El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Therefore, it was diagnosed that the anomalies of the atmospheric mechanisms that occur seasonally, such as SACZ and ITCZ, are the ones that cause the higher frequency in the percentage of rainfall variance, which might be explained by the frequency of the occurrence. However, remote factors, such as the occurrence in different temporal scales, interannual and interdecennial, were represented in different spatial and temporal models, as the events of variability modes vary spatially, seasonally and in intensity. It is important to highlight that the modes of climatic variability may influence the atmospheric mechanisms identified in this study, nevertheless, their impact were not evidenced in the space‐temporal scales analysed. The results are relevant to understand the space‐temporal variability of rainfall over Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper examines the climate variability modes in the South American/Atlantic sector accompanying dry and wet years over north-eastern Brazil ( NEB) in which the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceanic-atmospheric conditions usually associated, respectively, with dryness and wetness are absent. The analyses are for several variables and take into account the warm and cold Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ( AMO) phases ( WAMO and CAMO). Four cases are analysed: DRY-WAMO, DRY-CAMO, WET-WAMO and WET-CAMO. The main difference in the sea surface temperature ( SST) anomaly patterns in the tropics between the AMO phases responsible for the differences in the precipitation anomaly patterns is the differential longitude positioning of the warming or cooling of the surface waters in the equatorial Atlantic. In consequence, the anomalous Atlantic Hadley and Walker circulations also show differences between the AMO phases, which justify the observed precipitation anomalies over tropical South America for the analysed cases. The strong anomalous Atlantic Hadley cell determines the dipolar structure of the precipitation anomalies between NEB and northern South America for the DRY-WAMO and WET-WAMO cases. The strong anomalous Atlantic Walker cell defines the dryness over NEB for the DRY-CAMO, and both the strong anomalous Atlantic Hadley and Walker cells act together to yield an anomalous dry condition over NEB and wet condition over northern South America. Therefore, the results here provided clear indications that for climate monitoring and forecasting tasks, the AMO phases should be considered. These are new aspects of the tropical Atlantic variability that might be useful for climate monitoring purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a natural hazard with critical societal and economic consequences to millions of people around the world. In this paper, we present the climatology of severe drought events that occurred during the 20th century in the region of Sao Paulo, Brazil. To account for the effects of rainfall deficit and changes in temperature at a climatic timescale, we chose the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to identify severe droughts over the city of Sao Paulo, and the eastern and central-western regions of the state. Events were identified using weather station data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data, in order to assess the representation of drought periods in both datasets. Results show that the reanalysis seems suitable to represent the number of events and their mean duration, severity and intensity, but the timing and characteristics of individual events are not well reproduced. The correlation between observation and reanalysis SPEI time series is low to moderate in all cases. A linear trend analysis between 1901 and 2010 shows a tendency of increasing (decreasing) severe drought events in the central and western (eastern) Sao Paulo state, according to observational data. This is in agreement with previous findings, and the reanalysis presents this same signal. The weakened trend values in the reanalysis may be associated with issues in representing precipitation in this dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, a challenge in Climate Science is the seasonal forecast and knowledge of the model's performance in different regions. The challenge in South America reflects its huge territory; some models present a good performance, and others do not. Nevertheless, reliable seasonal climate forecasts can benefit numerous decision-making processes related to agriculture, energy generation, and extreme events mitigation. Thus, given the few works assessing the ECMWF-SEAS5 performance in South America, this study investigated the quality of its seasonal temperature and precipitation predictions over the continent. For this purpose, predictions from all members of the hindcasts (1993–2016) and forecasts (2017–2021) ensemble were used, considering the four yearly seasons. The analyses included seasonal mean fields, bias correction, anomaly correlations, statistical indicators, and seasonality index. The best system's performance occurred in regions strongly influenced by teleconnection effects, such as northern South America and northeastern Brazil, in which ECMWF-SEAS5 even reproduced the extreme precipitation anomalies that happened in recent decades. Moreover, the system indicated a moderate capability of seasonal predictions in medium and low predictability regions. In summary, the results show that ECMWF-SEAS5 climate forecasts are potentially helpful and should be considered to plan various strategic activities better. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ASHRAE Standard 55 is widely used to assess thermal comfort in buildings worldwide. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the adaptive method application proposed by ASHRAE 55 in two different climates in Brazil. This method relates the conditions for comfort to the “prevailing mean outdoor air temperature”. The currently available version of the Standard allows for linear and exponential methods to calculate the “prevailing mean”, and both are tested to establish the acceptability zones. The results indicate that choosing any of the methods to calculate the prevailing mean outdoor air temperature gives similar results when the temperature amplitudes are small; but it can lead to different limits of acceptability, and consequently sum of discomfort hours, when significant day-to-day temperature variations are present. In addition, the results indicate that it is possible to find significant percentages of thermal acceptability from previous studies below the lower limit of acceptability proposed by the Standard. As a result, a “clo adjustment zone” is suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We investigate the climatic influence on COVID-19 transmission risks in 228 cities globally across three climatic zones. The results, based on the application of a Boosted Regression Tree algorithm method, show that average temperature and average relative humidity explain significant variations in COVID-19 transmission across temperate and subtropical regions, whereas in the tropical region, the average diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality significantly predict the infection outbreak. The number of positive cases showed a decrease sharply above an average temperature of 10°C in the cities of France, Turkey, the US, the UK, and Germany. Among the tropical countries, COVID-19 in Indian cities is most affected by mean diurnal temperature, and those in Brazil by temperature seasonality. The findings have implications on public health interventions, and contribute to the ongoing scientific and policy discourse on the complex interplay of climatic factors determining the risks of COVID-19 transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The objective of the present paper is to evaluate the thermal performance of diverse wood-based panels in small-scale test cells of 1m×1m×1m of internal volume. The thermal evaluations took place under the climatic conditions of Curitiba, Brazil (latitude 25.5°S, elevation 917m above sea level), which is characterized by a subtropical climate with high daily and annual amplitudes of the air temperature. The research comprised of the following steps: (1) heat flux measurements through each panel configuration; (2) indoor temperature measurements under summer and winter climatic conditions. Reference material for indoor temperature comparisons was a prototype made with ordinary ceramic bricks, plastered on both sides. Air temperature measurements were carried out with data-loggers, heat flux plates were attached to an exposed north facade of each test cell, while incoming solar radiation was measured with an experimental solarimeter. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The sustainability of fast-growing tropical Eucalyptus plantations is of concern in a context of rising fertilizer costs, since large amounts of nutrients are removed with biomass every 6–7 years from highly weathered soils. A better understanding of the dynamics of tree requirements is required to match fertilization regimes to the availability of each nutrient in the soil. The nutrition of Eucalyptus plantations has been intensively investigated and many studies have focused on specific fluxes in the biogeochemical cycles of nutrients. However, studies dealing with complete cycles are scarce for the Tropics. The objective of this paper was to compare these cycles for Eucalyptus plantations in Congo and Brazil, with contrasting climates, soil properties, and management practices. The main features were similar in the two situations. Most nutrient fluxes were driven by crown establishment the two first years after planting and total biomass production thereafter. These forests were characterized by huge nutrient requirements: 155, 10, 52, 55 and 23kgha−1 of N, P, K, Ca and Mg the first year after planting at the Brazilian study site, respectively. High growth rates the first months after planting were essential to take advantage of the large amounts of nutrients released into the soil solutions by organic matter mineralization after harvesting. This study highlighted the predominant role of biological and biochemical cycles over the geochemical cycle of nutrients in tropical Eucalyptus plantations and indicated the prime importance of carefully managing organic matter in these soils. Limited nutrient losses through deep drainage after clear-cutting in the sandy soils of the two study sites showed the remarkable efficiency of Eucalyptus trees in keeping limited nutrient pools within the ecosystem, even after major disturbances. Nutrient input–output budgets suggested that Eucalyptus plantations take advantage of soil fertility inherited from previous land uses and that long-term sustainability will require an increase in the inputs of certain nutrients. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In hot humid climates, natural ventilation is an essential passive strategy in order to maintain thermal comfort inside buildings and it can be also used as an energy-conserving design strategy to reduce building cooling loads by removing heat stored in the buildings thermal mass. In this context, many previous studies have focused on thermal comfort and air velocity ranges. However, whether this air movement is desirable or not remains an open area. This paper aims to identify air movement acceptability levels inside naturally ventilated buildings in Brazil. Minimal air velocity values corresponding to 80% and 90% (V80 and V90) air movement acceptability inside these buildings. Field experiments were performed during hot and cool seasons when 2075 questionnaires were filled for the subjects while simultaneous microclimatic observations were made with laboratory precision. Main results indicated that the minimal air velocity required were at least 0.4m/s for 26°C reaching 0.9m/s for operative temperatures up to 30°C. Subjects are not only preferring more air speed but also demanding air velocities closer or higher than 0.8m/s ASHRAE limit. This dispels the notion of draft in hot humid climates and reinforce the broader theory of alliesthesia and the physiological role of pleasure due to air movement increment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The present paper aims to make the energy saving potential provided by waste recycling in Brazil evident by pointing out more specifically the benefits regarding climate change mitigation. In this case, based on the energy saved due to the recycling process of an exogenous amount of waste, we have built two scenarios in order to show the potential for indirectly avoiding CO2 emissions in the country as a result of the recycling process. According to the scenario, 1 Mt and 3.5 Mt of CO2, respectively, would be avoided per year due to solid waste recycling. The international context for greenhouse gas emissions reduction, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol has been taken into account. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The climatic characteristics of Brazil present marked spatial and temporal precipitation contrasts, which are reviewed according to four main indices: PRCPTOT – total precipitation; Rmm – number of days with precipitation; Rx1day – maximum 1-day precipitation; and SDII – simple precipitation intensity index. The study used data for 12 hydrographic basins from 1975 to 2005. The seasonal distribution of these precipitation indices in Brazil is summarized concerning the main atmospheric systems acting in South America. The austral summer and autumn present the maximum PRCPTOT, Rmm, and Rx1day, related to the South American Monsoon System and Intertropical Convergence Zone. However, in the winter, the extreme northern and eastern coast also present high Rx1day. Maximum values of SDII occur during the four seasons in southwestern Brazil, related to mesoscale convective complexes. Precipitation anomalies are also affected by the sea surface temperature of the Tropical Southern Atlantic and Equatorial Pacific Oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a wide variety of climates on the planet's surface, and climate classifications are tools for delimiting and describing prevailing climate types. Köppen classification relates types of climate to types of vegetation, while Camargo classification seeks to map climatic types based on thermal and water factors. In Brazil, the Midwest region is a major agricultural producer but still lacks detailed climate information. In this sense, we aimed to compare Köppen and Geiger (1928) with Camargo (1991) methods for climate classification in the Midwest of Brazil. For this purpose, we used data on daily global solar radiation; mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature; relative humidity; wind speed; and precipitation from 2160 weather stations, which were obtained from the NASA/POWER platform. Components of normal climatological water balance were calculated using the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method, with an available water capacity of 100 mm. Köppen and Geiger (1928) system uses data on mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, coldest month mean temperature, warmest month mean temperature, and driest month precipitation. The method of Camargo (1991), modified by Maluf (2000), uses the following meteorological elements: mean annual temperature, coldest month mean temperature, annual water surplus and deficit, and water deficit months. The similarity between classification methods was verified by agglomerative hierarchical clustering and Tukey's test at 95% reliability. The most predominant climate class according to Camargo (1991) was TR-UMi (humid tropical climate), representing 33.63% of the entire territory of the Midwest of Brazil. According to Köppen and Geiger (1928), six climate types were observed in the Midwest region, with a predominance of class Aw (tropical climate with dry winter), representing 58.50% of the entire region. While Köppen and Geiger (1928) showed a macroscale scope, Camargo (1991) classification had a mesoscale approach. The latter was more suitable for agricultural purposes, mainly because it provided information on prevailing water conditions in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the lack of studies about dry spells over Southeastern Brazil (SEB), the present study aims to characterize them considering their duration, geographical incidence, and association with rainfall. Uninterrupted sequences of no‐rain days were calculated using the high‐resolution (10 km) Multi‐Source Weighted‐Ensemble Precipitation data set (MSWEP; 1979–2016). The majority of dry spells (80%) last no more than 9 days and those remaining for 10 days or more are relatively rare (top 20%). January and February present a predisposition for the occurrence of dry spells, feature that is not observed in December. The life cycle of dry spells evolves in close association with the subseasonal rainfall tendency. When adding the perspective of dry spells, the effective peak of the monsoon season is December, the month with the highest rainfall rates and the lowest chances for dry spells. Afterward, dry spells modulate a progressive weakening of the rainy season until March, when a slight recovery may happen in the central northern portions of SEB. The relationship between dry spells and rainfall is not straightforward. For dry spells that are most common (up to 9 days), the most likely association is with negative monthly anomalies up to −1.0 SD. However, there are also significant chances of having dry spells associated with positive anomalies. Extreme long dry spells, but extremely rare as well, are unequivocally associated with negative anomalies. The geographic discrimination of dry spells evidences a dipole‐like feature, better seen in January and February, similar to the well‐known rainfall dipole. The north and northeast portions tend to be drier, more prone to the occurrence of dry spells, both short/frequent and long/infrequent. In the south and southwestern portions, dry spells tend to be shorter. The main result is the indication of a probable lessening in the rainy season, taking place between January and February that might affect a significant portion of SEB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the performance of 25 earth system models (ESMs), statistically and dynamically downscaled to a high horizontal resolution (0.25° of latitude/longitude), in simulating extreme climate indices of temperature and precipitation for 1980–2005. Datasets analyzed include 21 statistically downscaled ESMs from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) and dynamically downscaled Eta Regional Climate Model simulations driven by 4 ESMs generated by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE). Downscaled outputs were evaluated against observational gridded datasets at 0.25° resolution over Brazil, quantifying the skill in simulating the observed spatial patterns and trends of climate extremes. Results show that the downscaled products are generally able to reproduce the observed climate indices, although most of them have poorest performance over the Amazon basin for annual and seasonal indices. We find larger discrepancies in the warm spell duration index for almost all downscaled ESMs. The overall ranking shows that three downscaled models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4, and MRI-CGCM3) perform distinctively better than others. In general, the ensemble mean of the statistically downscaled models achieves better results than any individual models at the annual and seasonal scales. This work provides the largest and most comprehensive intercomparison of statistically and dynamically downscaled extreme climate indices over Brazil and provides a useful guide for researchers and developers to select the models or downscaling techniques that may be most suitable to their applications of interest over a given region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improper urban planning has been proven to produce excessive environmental impacts in urban areas, such as urban flooding and urban heat islands. A new approach to protecting the urban environment brought forward the idea of low-impact urban development, which uses rainwater-control devices such as cisterns, permeable pavements and green roofs. This study aimed to evaluate the potential of green roofs in two important environmental dimensions: thermal and hydrological. An experimental study was conducted at the Federal University of Pará Guamá Campus, Belém, Brazil. Hydrological and thermal data from a green roof and a fibre-cement roof were collected and compared to analyse the performance of the roofs. The results showed extensive green roofs to be an effective tool for reducing rainfall run-off at the roof scale, particularly for small-storm events, as well as an efficient thermal roof insulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to analyze the operationally stored simulations of the RegCM4.7 model using simulations performed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2) in downscaling. The South American domain, however, seeks to observe prevailing weather systems that may affect the Alcântara Rocket Launch Center in Maranhão. One case is analyzed with three different global initializations of the CFSv2 model. On March 25, 2019, the occurrence of Cyclone Iba on the southern coast of Bahia. The RegCM4.7 Regional Model was able to simulate tropical cyclone three months in advance. This performance is very important because the influence of these anomalous systems affect wind intensity and rainfall behavior in the Alcântara region because it would affect the convective processes on the continent in northeastern Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we have performed a study for the first time on the climatology of the intermediate descending layers (ILs) over Brazilian equatorial and low-latitude regions during the extreme solar minimum period of 2009. The result of this study shows that the occurrence frequency of the ILs is very high, being > 60 % over São Luís (2 ∘ S, 44 ∘ W; inclination: - 3.8 ∘) and > 90 % in Cachoeira Paulista (22.42 ∘ S, 45 ∘ W; inclination: - 33.5 ∘). In most cases the ILs occur during the day at altitudes varying from 130 to 180 km and they may descend to lower altitudes (∼100 km) in a time interval of a few minutes to hours. The main driving force for the ILs at the low-latitude region, may be considered to be the diurnal tide (24 h) followed in smaller dominance by the semidiurnal (12 h), terdiurnal (8 h) and quarter-diurnal (6 h) components. In the magnetic equatorial sector, similar behavior was seen, with the exception of the semidiurnal tide, which in general does not appear to have influenced the IL's dynamics (except in summer). Additionally, the IL mean descent velocity over São Luís and Cachoeira Paulista shows a day-to-day variability that may be associated with a wave-like perturbation with a periodicity of some days. Some peculiarities in the IL dynamics were noted, such as the presence of the ILs during the night hours. Ascending and descending ILs appeared to have been formed from some connection with the ionospheric F layer. Quite often, these characteristics are observed in the presence of strong signatures of the gravity wave propagation as suggested by the F layer traces in the ionogram. The descending intermediate layer over Brazil appears to have been formed through a process of F1 layer base detachment. An interesting case study showed that an ascending ILs, initially detected at ∼130 km, reached the base of the F2 layer, due probably to the gravity wave propagation and/or the effect of a prompt penetration electric field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This Special Issue reports research spanning from the analysis of indirect data, modelling, laboratory and geological data confirming the intrinsic multidisciplinarity of the gas hydrate studies. The study areas are (1) Arctic, (2) Brazil, (3) Chile and (4) the Mediterranean region. The results furnished an important tessera of the knowledge about the relationship of a gas hydrate system with other complex natural phenomena such as climate change, slope stability and earthquakes, and human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sunflower is a species that is sensitive to local climate conditions. However, studies that use artificial neural networks (ANNs) to evaluate this influence and create tools such as agricultural zoning of climate risk (ZARC) have not been conducted for this species. Due to the importance of sunflower as a human food source and for biodiesel production, and also the necessity of conducting research to evaluate the suitability of this oleaginous species under different climatic conditions. Thus, we seek to construct a ZARC for sunflower in Brazil simulating sowing on different dates and using meteorological elements spatialized by ANNs. Climate data were used: air temperature (T), rainfall (P), relative air humidity (UR), solar radiation (MJ_m−2_d−1) and wind velocity (U2). Climatic regions considered suitable for the cultivation of sunflower had average annual values for T between 20 and 28°C, P between 500 and 1.500 mm per cycle, and soil water deficit (DEF) below 140 mm per cycle. A neural network is an efficient tool that can be used in spatialization of climate variables quickly and accurately. Sunflower sowing in the spring and summer are the ones that provide the largest suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, with 58.13 and 64.36% of suitable areas, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 21-year climatology of Easterly Waves Disturbances (EWDs) over the tropical South Atlantic (TSA) has been examined using data from the European Centers for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting interim reanalysis (ERAI) and satellite data. This includes the frequency distribution of EWDs and their interannual variability. The large-scale environment associated with EWDs has been investigated for the coastal region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) for the rainy (April–August) season using a composite analysis. EWDs were first identified in ERAI, resulting in 518 observed cases. These were found to show notable interannual variability with around 16–40 episodes each year and with an average lifetime of 4–6 days. Of the identified EWDs, 97% reached the coast of NEB, of which 64% were convective in nature and 14% moved across the NEB region and reached the Amazon. The annual occurrence of EWDs seems to be lower (higher) during El Niño (La Niña). The monthly occurrence of EWDs shows higher activity in the rainy season. EWDs originate in association with four types of system: cold fronts, convective clusters from the west coast of Africa, Intertropical Convergence Zone and Tropical Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortices. The composite analysis indicates strong relative vorticity and divergence anomalies at low levels, as well as in the vertical profiles of relative humidity and vertical velocity (omega). The precipitation composites show that the EWDs propagate between the TSA and NEB and contribute at least 60% of the total rainfall over the east coast of NEB throughout the rainy season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change alters the dynamic of natural ecosystems and directly affects species distributions, persistence and diversity. The impacts of climate change may lead to dramatic changes in biotic interactions, such as pollination and seed dispersal. Life history traits are extremely important to consider the vulnerability of a species to climate change, producing more robust models than those based primarily on species distributions. Here, we hypothesized that rising temperatures and aridity will reduce suitable habitats for the endemic flora of the Caatinga, the most diverse dry tropical forest on Earth. Specifically, species with specialized reproductive traits (e.g. vertebrate pollination, biotic dispersal, obligatory cross-pollination) should be more affected by climate change than those with generalist traits. We performed two ecological niche models (current and future) to simulate the effects of climate change on the distribution area of endemic species in relation to life-history traits. We used the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 models for both intermediate (RCP4.5) and highest predicted (RCP8.5) GHG emission scenarios, with a resolution of 30' (~1 km2). Habitat with high occurrence probability (>80%) of endemic species will be reduced (up to ~10% for trees, ~13% for non-arboreous, 10–28% for species with any pollination/reproductive system), with the greatest reductions for species with specialized reproductive traits. In addition, the likely concentration of endemic plants in the extreme northeastern portion of the Caatinga, in more mesic areas, coincides with the currently most human-modified areas of the ecosystem, which combined with climate change will further contract suitable habitats of endemic species. In conclusion, plant species endemic to the Caatinga are highly vulnerable to even conservative scenarios of future climate change and may lose much of their climatic envelopes. New protected areas should be located in the northeastern portion of the Caatinga, which hosts a more favorable climate, but is currently exposed to escalating agricultural intensification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agricola e Ambiental - Agriambi is the property of Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agricola e Ambiental and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence is available regarding the association between heat exposure and morbidity in Brazil and how the effect of heat exposure on health outcomes may change over time. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to quantify the geographic, demographic and temporal variations in the heat-hospitalization association in Brazil from 2000-2015. METHODS: Data on hospitalization and meteorological conditions were collected from 1,814 cities during the 2000-2015 hot seasons. Quasi-Poisson regression with constrained lag model was applied to examine city-specific estimates, which were then pooled at the regional and national levels using random-effect meta-analyses. Stratified analyses were performed by sex, 10 age groups, and 11 cause categories. Meta-regression was used to examine the temporal change in estimates of heat effect from 2000 to 2015. RESULTS: For every 5°C increase in daily mean temperature during the 2000-2015 hot seasons, the estimated risk of hospitalization over lag 0-7 d rose by 4.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.7%, 4.3%] nationwide. Estimated 6.2% [95% empirical CI (eCI): 3.3%, 9.1%] of hospitalizations were attributable to heat exposure, equating to 132 cases (95% eCI: 69%, 192%) per 100,000 residents. The attributable rate was greatest in children <5 years and was highest for hospitalizations due to infectious and parasitic diseases. Women of reproductive age and those ≥60 years had higher heat burden than men. The attributable burden was greatest for cities in the central west and the inland of the northeast; lowest in the north and eastern coast. Over the 16-y period, the estimated heat effects declined insignificantly at the national level. CONCLUSIONS: In Brazil's hot seasons, 6% of hospitalizations were estimated to be attributed to heat exposure. As there was no evidence indicating that thermal adaptation had occurred at the national level, the burden of hospitalization associated with heat exposure in Brazil is likely to increase in the context of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Sustainability in Debate / Sustentabilidade em Debate is the property of University of Brasilia, Center for Sustainable Development and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Vitamin D is essential to bone health; severe and prolonged deficiency can lead to rickets in children and osteomalacia in adults. As the main source of vitamin D is exposure of the skin to ultraviolet rays, it has long been assumed that living in a sunny country ensures adequate vitamin D levels (i.e. the optimum level of serum vitamin D to prevent detrimental effects to bone health). However, there is increasing evidence that vitamin D insufficiency may have been underestimated in low latitude, tropical countries. Brazil is a unique country to study as it is the only country in the world that has both the line of equator and that of the tropic of Capricorn running through its territory. Recent findings of a high prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency in countries, such as Brazil, suggest that vitamin D deficiency may be increasing at a global level. More robust and large studies are needed for an accurate estimate of the prevalence of insufficient vitamin D levels in populations in sunny countries and the relative contribution of key influential factors, such as individual sun exposure, dietary intake, skin pigmentation and lifestyle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the forcing of the residual circulation in a tropical estuary, Baía de Todos os Santos, Brazil (BTS). A numerical model (Regional Ocean Modeling System), forced with climatological means, was used to investigate the seasonal roles of the tide, wind, net heat, surface water fluxes, and river discharge on the residual circulation. The tide is the main driver of the circulation and its residual flow is structured at the bay mouth with a net-landward flow in the channel center and a net-seaward flow on the shoulders. The addition of wind drag affected the surface circulation, forcing W-bound (N-bound) currents in the spring-summer (fall-winter) months and generating a positive sea-level slope toward the continent. The addition of heat and surface water fluxes to the simulation established an incipient gravitational circulation, mainly because of the large (approximately 0.2°C/km) temperature gradients in the summer. The river discharge, added last, was second to the tide in driving the residual circulation in the BTS and established the gravitational circulation through most of the bay, including the bay mouth. The residual velocities attained magnitudes smaller than 0.13 ms-1 in the main channel and were seasonally controlled, with stronger currents during the summer when the river discharge peaked. The onset of the baroclinic forcing (heat and surface water fluxes plus river discharge) reduced the e-folding flushing time by a factor of five relative to the experiment with barotropic forcing (wind and tides) only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied—social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: This study examines the spatial and temporal surface (10 m) wind speed trend characteristics of Brazil during 1980–2014 using two in situ and three climate reanalysis datasets. Nonparametric regression is used to understand how mean seasonal and annual wind speeds change over space and time across Brazil. Overall temporal linear trends show that station and reanalysis products exhibit varying seasonal and annual wind speed trends. A geographic examination displays statistically significant (P < 0.05) positive (negative) mean wind speed trends for equatorial (southeastern and central) Brazil. Quantile regression is performed to interpret how wind speed changed across different percentiles. Results show that the largest positive and negative spatial wind speed trends occur for the upper percentiles (75 and 95%). The spatial and temporal trends and correlations described could be interconnected to possible changes developing with the location of Intertropical Convergence Zone and South Atlantic Anticyclone over the study region. Results have implications for optimizing renewable wind energy production and development across Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of global climate change have been a worldwide concern for several research areas, including those dealing with resources essential to human well being, such as agriculture, which directly impact economic activities and food security. Here we evaluate the relative effect of climate (as indicated by the Ecological Niche Model—ENM) and agricultural technology on actual soybean productivity in Brazilian municipalities and estimate the future geographic distribution of soybeans using a novel statistical approach allowing the evaluation of partial coefficients in a non-stationary (Geographically Weighted Regression; GWR) model. We found that technology was more important than climate in explaining soybean productivity in Brazil. However, some municipalities are more dependent on environmental suitability (mainly in Southern Brazil). The future environmental suitability for soybean cultivation tends to decrease by up 50% in the central region of Brazil. Meanwhile, southern-most Brazil will have more favourable conditions, with an increase of ca. 25% in environmental suitability. Considering that opening new areas for cultivation can degrade environmental quality, we suggest that, in the face of climate change impacts on soybean cultivation, the Brazilian government and producers must invest in breeding programmes and more general ecosystem-based strategies for adaptation to climate change, including the development of varieties tolerant to climate stress, and strategies to increase productivity and reduce costs (social and environmental). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal pollination can impact food security since many crops depend on pollinators to produce fruits and seeds. However, the effects of projected climate change on crop pollinators and therefore on crop production are still unclear, especially for wild pollinators and aggregate community responses. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of 95 pollinator species of 13 Brazilian crops, and we estimated their relative impacts on crop production. We described these effects at the municipality level, and we assessed the crops that were grown, the gross production volume of these crops, the total crop production value, and the number of inhabitants. Overall, considering all crop species, we found that the projected climate change will reduce the probability of pollinator occurrence by almost 0.13 by 2050. Our models predict that almost 90% of the municipalities analyzed will face species loss. Decreases in the pollinator occurrence probability varied from 0.08 (persimmon) to 0.25 (tomato) and will potentially affect 9% (mandarin) to 100% (sunflower) of the municipalities that produce each crop. Municipalities in central and southern Brazil will potentially face relatively large impacts on crop production due to pollinator loss. In contrast, some municipalities in northern Brazil, particularly in the northwestern Amazon, could potentially benefit from climate change because pollinators of some crops may increase. The decline in the probability of pollinator occurrence is found in a large number of municipalities with the lowest GDP and will also likely affect some places where crop production is high (20% to 90% of the GDP) and where the number of inhabitants is also high (more than 6 million people). Our study highlights key municipalities where crops are economically important and where pollinators will potentially face the worst conditions due to climate change. However, pollinators may be able to find new suitable areas that have the potential to improve crop production. The results shown here could guide policy decisions for adapting to climate change and for preventing the loss of pollinator species and crop production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]